Race 1
1 TOP PREMIER 4.5
2 MISTER GUNADOO 6
3 ARK RAID 4.5
4 CINDYS BABE 4
5 MIGHTY MYF 51
6 OUR LAST KNIGHT 51
7 TIME TO PRAY 51
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM 17
10 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 9
Found this a hard race to start the night but ultimately settled on #4 Cindys Babe who has been knocking on the door for a while, she should press forward and find the death and won't shirk the task. Lacks really high speed but is a trier and looks a safe EW gamble. #3 Ark Raid has been chasing home some decent 3yo horses lately and is the obvious danger and #1 Top Premier has run some terrific races this time in and from this draw has an undeniable chance. Found it very difficult to split that trio actually as evidenced by my market but one of them should win on exposed form. There is a query on #2 Mister Gunadoo though who had pretty average form prior to a spell but is resuming with decent trial form and he has gatespeed so I have kept him safe also. Outside of them, #11 Rock The Pocket hasn't lived up to early promise and will find it hard from this draw over the mile trip but last run wasn't too bad, #9 Rosarium is a half sister to champion mare Shez Ryleymak but has only been fair at the trials and #10 Mistover Fizz has also disappointed of late but may run into a place from this trailing draw
Ratings 4/1,3/2/11/9,10
Race 2
1 BREATHING FIRE 6
2 MOIRA KITE 51
3 MONICAS NOTCH 34
4 LADY ELEANOR 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 15
6 JULIAS SONG NZ scr
7 TOUCHA REVENGE scr
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SANREOS 4.5
Looks a very suitable race for #8 Blacktie Affair to continue on her winning way, she has been a revelation since arriving in Tassie winning all 3 starts easily and whilst I am loathe to take short odds a sit/sprint horse she just looks to have too much speed for the rest. #9 Sanreos looms as the danger, she has been chasing Blacktie Affair home of late but been making mistakes and if she puts it together might cause a boilover. #1 Breathing Fire resumes, draws well and has gatespeed so must be included as must #5 Bajardo River who was okay last time as well. Pretty thin race actually
Ratings 8/9/1/5/field
Race 3
1 LOOK LOOK 13
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.8
3 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 3.5
4 EL JAYS MODEENA 17
5 INTHENICKOFTIME 34
6 ARTIFICE 6
7 LOADED BOMBER 34
#2 Biggernbettermax has always excelled when drawn to lead and should adopt that role here, he has disappointed a couple of times from back in the field but looks certain to find his favourite role here so looks a decent bet. #3 Brian Buster Brown is very hard to assess though, he didn't do much early on then in his 2 starts prior to a spell he won like a very good horse and has trialled well for his resumption to racing so is a huge watch. #6 Artifice will find this tougher than past few against her own age and sex but is a good sit/sprint mare and if the boys overdo it up front she may be the beneficiary. #1 Look Look was well driven to trail the fav and place last time and looks likely to get the same run again so is a legitimate place prospect. #4 El Jays Modeena always runs on in her races and with the small field is also in the mix for exotics
Ratings 2/3/6/1/4
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) 26
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 11
3 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 2.4
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 17
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 8
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5
7 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) 6
The Claimers start the Quaddie and looks to be a thin race. Have opted for #3 Waterloo Bay as top pick due mainly to his good stand start manners and if he pinged to the front here would be very hard to run down, He led up in FFA class in a stand last time and gave a bit of cheek before weakening late but the mile rate was 2.01.9 for a 2600m stand so it was way too hot for him and much better suited here. #6 Bonnie Wee Laddie is first up for Rohan Hillier and also has a good record in this class and the small field really helps his cause with his sit/sprint style. #7 Albert Jones is also well placed at this level but has a 20m handicap to overcome which makes it difficult for him but the small field will also assist him. #5 The Apprentice has improved at every Tassie run and wouldn't be a total surprise to see him bob up. #2 The Cherokee Chief has run a couple of cheeky races at times and if he got a soft lead may surprise
Ratings 3/6/7/5/2/4/1
Race 5
1 SAAB QUALITY 2.2
2 FLYING JASPER 26
3 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 17
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.8
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 BOOZY ROUGE 8
7 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 26
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 26
Looks a 2 horse race here with #1 Saab Quality being my top tip purely on barrier draw. If you look at the last run where the favourites went round in the same race, Barooga Billy broke at the bell and went back to last and still beat Saab Quality home so it may seem odd that I have Saab Quality on top. The reason is simple, he grows a leg when in front and just punches out even sectionals and is therefore mighty hard to run down. #4 Barooga Billy oozes talent though and whilst he gets it wrong at times is a very good horse when on song. One of that duo should win but I do respect #6 Boozy Rouge who was a tragedy beaten in Hobart last week in an easier race but he will find the line well. Both #3 Livin In Heaven and #5 Topotheclouds are racing okay without much luck and always place hopes and the rest also are distinct place possibilities as well given the right run. It just comes down to tempo and provided Saab Quality gets a softish lead it should be a 2 horse race (just hope Topotheclouds or Merlin Bromac don't gas him early though)
Ratings 1/4/6/3,5/2,7,8
Race 6
1 HARBHAJAN 1.6
2 BORNFIRST 13
3 EARL HICKEY 11
4 AS YOU WISH 11
5 CANCELLARA 11
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 17
7 RESURGENCE 17
8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 8
Don't know what to make of this race as most of the field are out of form or resuming which leaves #1 Harbhajan as a pronounced favourite but I do have a few concerns despite the cramped odds. He has been ODM in past 3 wins since arriving in Tassie so his gatespeed is a bit of an unknown factor and he has beaten some quite average fields but tht being said, he meets another average lot here. #8 Glory Is Illusive is 2nd pick but not much confidence in him from this draw either but only needs some luck to figure. #5 Cancellara was flying this time a year ago but has been quite disappointing at past few, he did pull pretty hard in a race where they staggered home in 32 last week so if he settles better might surprise. As I said previously, the rest are hard to assess, #2 Bornfirst seems to save its best for Devonport but does have some gatespeed which might be a concern for the fav, #3 Earl Hickey resumes and also has a touch of gatespeed, #4 As You Wish is an in and out type who needs things run to suit but has some ability, #6 An Eye For An Eye is another disappointing pacer who actually went up and contested the NSW Derby a while ago but form has slipped since then obviously but is back with his original trainer so might improve and #7 Resurgence is a big one pacer who resumes from a tough draw
Ratins 1/8/5/4/field
Race 7
1 MI MADEMOISELLE 13
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 KING ALBERT 9
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 21
5 WINGSOFANEAGLE 13
6 KING OF BLING 2.5
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 5
8 TOPUP 11
Pretty keen on #6 King Of Bling to lead and win here, has dazzling gatespeed and has recently led from barriers 7 and 8 so the draw isn't a huge concern and there doesn't look to be a legitimate death seat horse in the race to put any pressure on him so I envisage a soft run and should be getting home of that occurs. #7 The Musics Over resumes from a short let up after falling here last time when was going to be right in the finish but from this draw will be spotting King Of Bling a big start but is definitely the main danger with any luck in the run. #2 Pennys Dragon is an opportunist type who is always a chance if things fall her way, #3 King Albert hasn't had much luck in similar fields of late and draws okay here, #1 Mi Mademoiselle has the speed to retain the back of the fav so becomes a must for exotics if that occurs and #8 Topup isn't going as well as he was a month ago but is right up to this at his best. #5 Wingsofaneagle disappointed last campaign but resumes here and also has plenty of ability when right so monitor any confident betting moves with him. Even #4 November Twenty won at huge odds 2 starts back so can run into the minor money somewhere
Ratings 6/7/1,2,3/5,8/4
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ scr
2 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 13
3 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 26
4 IDEN NOSHOT 3.5
5 BREZHNEV LEIS 2.8
6 BETTOR DRAW 2.5
Good quality race this with 3 distinct chances and hard to sort out. #6 Bettor Draw had superior form during their 2yo campaigns but the other 3 chances really came on late in the season. Have still got #6 Bettor Draw on top as reckon he might even find the front as not a ton of speed under him and if he did lead would definitely be the one to beat. #s 4,5 ran the quinella here a fortnight ago and cleared out from the rest and that formline was enhanced with the 3rd placegetter in that race Hamish Sanz winning well in Hobart last week. #5 Brezhnev Leis won that race and looks an improving type and will probably go forward at some stage in the run, #4 Iden Noshot went a lot better than it appeared in that race coming wide and making ground in a 58.2 last half. #2 Odins Dragon Rider showed good speed last start and battled on fairly so might sneak a place with a cheap pegs run
Ratings 6/4,5/2
