Hobart, Sunday August 29
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties bar the last race and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 2.8
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND scr
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 26
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and last week made ground when running 2nd to a smart one in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #3 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 15
2 FLASHY ICON 6.5
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 11
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 11
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 26
9 HAMISH SANZ 3
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1) 9
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 9
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS scr
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #10 Smokin Mustard also comes into play now he gets a run as has raced in stronger fields than this and been competitive, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. Bot of a watch on #5 Town Trickster who resumes after average form in first campaign but has trialled okay this time in so monitor betting. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,5?,10,11/1,3,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4.5
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 4.5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/6/3/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1) scr
2 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 21
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 17
7 WILLIE WINALOT 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 21
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 15
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 9
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 7
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO scr
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,3/4,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY scr
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 9
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1) 26
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #11 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad and it was hard to guage much from her last run as wasn't extended. In a nutshell, I have to admit that I am not sure if I have her odds right or not as might be better than them. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out and #12 Doves Patch is also an exotics player now she has obtained a run
1/11/10/8/7,12,13/4
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
2 SAFE AND SMART 4
3 HARLEKEN WIZED scr
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 4.5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 4.5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 11
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but will probably be at backable odds and worth the risk if that is the case. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did but he was an average run last time and reckon he might be poor value. #4 Cullens Count has been very honest at past few and from this draw will give a great sight again. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 8/2,4/1,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON scr
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 13
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 1.4
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
With the scratching of what appeared to be his only danger, #7 Denvers Boy looks thrown in now. He has been very good at past few and should press on from this gate, find the front and bolt in. There is a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/4,5,10/9,11
