Try to assess all markets to around 116% roughly to give average punters a chance to measure apples v apples with the TAB
Hobart, Sunday August 29
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 3
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND 51
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 34
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and then made ground in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #4 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11,12,13
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remained, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 17
2 FLASHY ICON 7
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 9
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 17
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 21
9 HAMISH SANZ 2.5
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1)
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 8
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 101
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,11/1,3,5,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/3,6/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1)
2 PEACE CHIEF 5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 17
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 13
7 WILLIE WINALOT 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 17
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 13
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 8
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 13
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO 9
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,7/3,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 51
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 11
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1)
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #1 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out
1/11/10/8
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 9
2 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
3 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 8
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. In races like this I generally opt for a touch of value and will be having something on #3 Harleken Wized who was slaughtered last week at Launceston in a stronger race. Took off to find the death whilst they ran 30.1 from the 1200 to 800 then went 29 down the back so had every right to drop dead late but because of how far he got beaten he just might be silly odds here as would be a definite hope on previous form. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but must be respected. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 3/2,8/1,4,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON 2.8
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 17
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 2.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
Look to be two clear standouts here to finish the night. I have opted for #7 Denvers Boy despite the draw as have been super impressed with all of his past 3 runs. He did meet #2 Aapenon a few runs back and both had every hope and Aapenon beat him home clearly but I believe that Denvers Boy is a much better horse now than he was at that stage. #2 Aapenon will be mighty hard to beat though as should lead and take no end of running down. Be surprised if they didn't fight out the finish but a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/2/4,10/5,9,11
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Launceston odds and ratings, Sunday August 22
Race 1
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE 5
2 HES NO SAINT 21
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 21
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 101
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 4
8 PEACE CHIEF 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 WILLIE WINALOT 6
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 8
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 7
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on the honest #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #1 Surprise Purchase always runs his best races in front and draws to get that role here so should get his chance if good enough. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/1,8/10,12/11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
2 CANCELLARA 17
3 HYDEHURST BOY 4
4 KEEN OPERATOR 8
5 NIBEBO 51
6 CURRYNROSES 8
7 TEEJAY FELLA 5
8 HARLEY FELLA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #7 Teejay Fella might be a touch of value and thought all his 3 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #8 Harley Fella is also going well but the draw might be the issue with him but only needs an ounce of luck to figure. #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 7/1/3,4,8/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1)
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB 34
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Hobart odds and Ratings, Sunday August 15
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 3.5
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN scr
3 INNASBROOK 4.5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3.5
5 SAAB QUALITY 3.5
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 201
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 201
10 MASTERAMA 201
Extremely difficult race to start the evening with multiple winning hopes and it all comes down to how it is run. For that reason and purely on my speed map, I have opted for the dour #4 Iden Justasmyrk as top pick who was soundly beaten by Saab Quality last week but reckon he might roll to the front and always grows a leg in that role. His best form however has been when driven by Nat Emery so the fact she isn't driving sours my confidence a tad but still goes on top. #1 Ashkalini returned to racing in slashing style versus her own age and sex and despite taking on the boys here is going to get a gun trip. #5 Saab Quality was awesome demolishing a similar field last week and is sure to go forward and make his own luck again but its worth noting the last time he sat outside Justasmyrk he was clearly held but does get Gareth on this time. It shows the depth of this race in that I haven't mentioned #3 Innasbrook as yet who has been very good winning both starts since a let up but has found the front both times and doubt he can lead here and might struggle to beat these if he doesn't lead. Of the rest, #7 Denvers Boy was heavily backed and bolted in last week by 12 metres but this is much stronger and from the draw I rate him a place prospect only. No confidence in the race at all though as evidenced by my market with the top 4 picks very even, #7 a clear 5th pick and that all of #6, #8, #9 and #10 are totally outclassed and be gobsmacked if any of them ran in the first four
Ratings 4/1,5/3/7
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 13
9 POKER STORM 7
Another hard race to sort out and have settled on the well bred #6 Winewomenandsong who I know was lucky to win his only start and did get a perfect trip but there were also plenty of positives in the win. Its easy to say he only ran past an extremely unlucky Quastor Centurion who must have lost 40 metres after getting knocked over but don't overlook the fact he finished off in 28.8 and also ran past Semose Twenty who would be a huge chance in this. Don't know much about its gatespeed but still happy to have him on top as would clearly beat those with exposed form. The state's leading trainer Phillip Ford also has 2 runners resuming from a spell who both won their previous race before the break in #5 Odins Dragon Rider and #7 Lauras Happy Time which makes it almost impossible to sort out as neither has trialled publicly but both have to be kept extremely safe. #9 Poker Storm was disappointing last time but may go better driven cold as in previous runs, #8 Smokin Mustard had good form earlier in the year but form has tapered off lately but should get a cheap run. #2 Brezhnev Leis was just fair first up but has a better draw here and gets Gareth so might improve. Honestly cannot dismiss any runner totally with even #4 Dusty Kalena who has run last and 2nd last at his 2 runs having a flukers chance as the runs actually haven't been too bad. Good race to stay out of in my opinion
Ratings 6/5,7/9/2,8/4/field
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 6
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 26
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 34
7 FORTY TWO GRAND scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 4.5
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
Tricky little race this and whilst I think #1 Lugovoi Leis will win I can see him being ridiculous odds due to a combination of barrier 1, Gareth driving, good numerical form, small field but still have to tip him even if backing him is another matter. When laying short odds, I don't want any question marks and there are a few with Lugovoi as despite leading all the way 2 starts back his best runs have always been when driven with cover and despite it being late in the year, he is still a 3yo taking on some very seasoned horses. He was also clearly beaten by a couple of runners in this field at his last start as a $2.0 favourite but it was a funnily run race and he drew barrier 12 on that occasion so don't read too much into that formline. So whilst I think he wins, I wouldn't be rushing in. #8 Flight To Mikinos is another 3yo who draws to trail the fav and if there are any chinks in the armour will be in the right place to strike. #3 Teejay Fella has been very good at both runs since a spell and is a legitimate winning hope here. #9 Twograndahand is an opportunist type who can figure if the race is run to suit and both #5 Little Vance Lot and #7 Forty Two Grand are going okay but will need luck from their draws if they are to figure as winning hopes. Geez I get those 2 horses mixed up (Forty Two Grand and Twograndahand) and they always seem to be in the same race every week just to make it tougher. Of the rest, #4 Toucha Revenge would be some hope on best form so include in exotics
Ratings 1/8/3/9/5,7/4
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 3.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1) 26
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
11 SAFE AND SMART 7
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ scr
#4 Topotheclouds has form around some very good horses but is becoming a bit of a professional bridesmaid of late which is a concern. Has been perfectly driven at past few and has looked the winner every time but failed to finish off so is hard to back with any confidence especially when combined with the fact he is infinitely better with a sit despite having good gatespeed. Still have him on top here though as he only got beaten 3 metres in a 57.7 last half at previous run and nothing else in the race has been breaking the minute for the run home. #1 Hydehurst Boy was very good leading throughout first up after copping mid race pressure and pretty plain last time when driven off the speed and didn't run on when they only ran home in 62 so it depends which one turns up as to his chances. Maybe he is just a leader. #11 Safe And Smart is very dour but will be around the mark somewhere but reckon his lack of high speed makes him a place prospect only. #10 Cullens Count is another best suited to a front row draw but going okay and a definite place prospect. Both #2 Bertils Rocket and #5 Pearlsfromheaven are opportunist types who need the right run to figure but could definitely surprise if they did. Can't see anything else winning the race but #8 Lady Eleanor draws to follow the pegs so might sneak a place
Ratings 4/1/11/10/2,5/8
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 3
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 5.5
3 NEW YORK FELLA 6
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 21
12 CRASH CART 34
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
#1 Still Royal was very impressive winning in Launceston last time after working in the run then racing away in the straight in a 58.7 final half. This is a bit tougher and the run to the first corner becomes ultra important to his chances with some speed outside him in #3 and #6. Still reckon he will kick through and retain the front and if he does is clearly the one to beat. #2 Prettyboytoby has had no luck at all recently but thats the life of a sit/sprint horse as he must be driven for luck, this is his best draw in ages though and therefore should settle much closer than usual and be right in the finsh. #3 New York Fella has returned to something like his best at past couple and if he managed to lead would be mighty hard to toss but still some hope if he didn't. #9 Thabela Brioso won well last time but this is much harder but still some hope. The rest are all quite even and all could run into a placing without totally surprising. Think Broughton may be under the odds after its last win when was driven beatifully to not go around a horse from a similar draw but runs like that don't occur too often
Ratings 1/2/3/9/field
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 17
6 DAYTIME JERRY 11
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 11
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
#11 Biggernbettermax has disappointed a couple of times being held up for a late crack at them but be very surprised if he isn't put into the race earlier this time as it is a drop in grade compared to those runs and did win like a good horse 2 runs back. #8 Willie Winalot is no star but tries hard and has chased home some good ones recently and whilst the draw does him no favours is sure to appreciate the drop in class. Reckon one of that pair will win but concede some hope to #1 Ark Raid who was perfectly driven to place last time and should get a good trip this time, #10 Cardinal Dreamer ran 2nd to Saturday Nights a couple of runs back so would be right in the mix with a repeat of that but did enjoy a gun run that night and both #4 King Of Jewels and #6 Daytime Jerry looked disappointing on face value last start but the bolter of the field pulled 3 wide in front of them at the 500 and got in their way so prepared to overlook those runs and Daytime Jerry also carried a flat tyre. #5 Inchbyinch and #10 Loaded Bomber fought out a very average race last time and will find his a lot tougher but maybe Inchbyinch could sneak a place with the right run
Ratings 11/8/1,4,6,10/5
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 4.5
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN scr
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6.5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 8
7 RONNIE RAT 13
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.5
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 26
#8 Cosmic Under Fire has to go on top as has been winning very similar races of late and the 20m maximum backmark in a lower assessed race actually means he meets most of these better off for beating them recently but still not a good thing by any means. The big thing in his favour is that he is versatile and can be driven in whatever manner is necessary given the tempo of the race. I am warming a little to the claimer #1 Waterloo Bay who is way up in class but is simply flying and gets a 20m lift on most of his rivals here, plus looks certain to lead so will definitely be including him as leaders in stands are always some hope. #4 Majestic Emperor has been very good at past couple but was beaten on his merits by the fav 2 starts back then got away with blue murder in front last time (47.6 lead time was laughable then a 34.6 first quarter) when dashed home to win so formline might be a tad suspect. Also cannot totally exclude any of #5 Gettysburgh Address, #6 Yuschenko Leis who was driven too aggressively last time or #7 Ronnie Rat who is a very good stand start horse. #10 Jilliby Rio was also a decent run at first run from a break so has place claims
Ratings 8/1/4/6/5/7/10
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 21
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 8
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4.5
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
#2 Kristins Niadh has run placings at past 4 starts behind the 2 best fillies in the state in Benediction and Klebnikova Leis and gets into a very winnable race here. She draws well, has gatespeed, should lead and this race is over the mile trip so she ticks a lot of boxes so is clearly the one to beat. #5 Stone Skipper has quite similar formlines and it is only the barrier draw that leads me to favour Kristins Niadh. One of those two should win on exposed form but a bit of a watch on #3 Noelsgirl who was well supported at only run but got it wrong and went for a spell, she resumes here without a trial but is an obvious watch. #4 Sunrise Lady has been okay at both starts to date and whilst I doubt she can trouble the favs is a must for exotics as is #8 Flashy Icon who has also gone okay in both starts so far. #1 Rosie Halo and #9 Guernica have been respectable at the trials so come into the mix for exotics as well
Ratings 2/5/3?/4,8/field
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 6
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 2.8
11 SING AND DANCE 3.5
Pretty light on for chances this race and have settled on #11 Sing And Dance to topple the likely favourite in #10 Artifice. They met in the same race 2 weeks ago and whilst Artifice beat Sing And Dance home, the latter pulled her head off in the run. Will obviously be given a quiet time early from this gate so should settle better and have a better kick left at the finish. #10 Artifice has been slightly disappointing at both runs this time in despite winning here last start, she has led and walked as an odds on fav in both runs and found little first up then had a dream run in front and just held off #7 Arkabe Jewel last time so would want better odds than she is going to be from this draw despite the average field. #2 Modern Lobell ran her best race in ages last start and if she found the front here which is a distinct chance she would be right in the mix given a repeat performance. #7 Arkabe Jewel got very close to Artifice last start but had a cosy run and a tad concerned with this draw but will be in the finish somewhere with any luck. That quartet look clearly better than the rest with #3 Taspacedotcom being next best as has been trialling fairly as has #4 Auntyliz but she hasn't produced anything of note at the races as yet
Ratings 11/10/2/7/3
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.2
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ scr
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 26
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
7 MOIRA KITE 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 21
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Looks a good race for #1 Sweetchillifilly but keep in mind she has only won 4 races from 83 starts and been placed on 26 occasions so not a great strike rate. She also hasn't won for 21 starts and been placed 7 times since her last win but Gareth has driven her 8 times in that period for 6 placings so obviously has some affinity with her and jumps on again here. She should lead and provided nothing silly happens should get a soft run given the class of field and if that happens there shouldn't be any excuses. The main and possibly only danger appears to be #6 Special Gallenti who I thought ran very well last time getting attacked in front and only being beaten 6 metres in a 1.59 rate and whilst I can't see him crossing the pole here he will still run a race. #4 Unrivalled has been terribly disappointing recently but did go a touch better last time and should get a good trip from this gate. The query runner is #10 Chanceabet who resumes for a new stable with atrocious form but he does have plenty of ability when right so keep tabs on the market for any confidence. The rest are simply not going well enough to win a race but due to the nature of the field they could all sneak into the latter placings somewhere
Ratings 1/6/4,10/field
------------------------------------------------------------------
Launceston odds and ratings, Sunday August 8
Race 1
1 AAPENNON 2.2
2 JUSTABRITTMORE 21
3 TEARSOFACLOWN 34
4 CINDYS BABE 21
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
6 TOP PREMIER 7
7 MISTOVER FIZZ 15
8 ALMA GRANT 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LINDYS TIME 51
10 DENVERS BOY (Em 1)
11 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
12 ANILADA 34
13 THE DETONATOR 51
#1 Aapenon has been very good running 2nd at past 2 starts and draws to lead and win here as there doesn't look to be a ton of speed outside of him and if gets a soft lead should get home. #8 Alma Grant is a good mare but a tad concerned as to how much work she will have to do from the gate but definitely won't shirk the task. #6 Top Premier has run some cheeky races of late and with an ounce of luck could surprise. Both #7 Mistover Fizz and #11 Woodland Chapel have been running on well lately and definite place hopes here. Outside of them, #4 Cindys Babe is the next best.
Ratings 1/8/6/7,11/4
Race 2
1 DAVPASS 26
2 LADY ELEANOR 13
3 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.4
4 REAL RESERVE 101
5 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 51
6 THABELA BRIOSO 67
7 BIG TOWN BABE 101
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 5
10 SANREOS 13
Pretty good race for this class of mares and a lot depends on whether the filly #3 Riverina Chelsea can lead early as should win if she does. When she leads, she churns out even quarters which makes it hard for anything back in the field to work into the race so is the top pick. #9 Doves Patch has been well supported in decent races in Victoria and just keeps burning punters by breaking and also pulling very hard in its races. Obviously has ability though so must be respected. #2 Lady Eleanor is the query runner being first up from Mount Gambier with formline reading just fair but the Yole stable have a good record with new stable additions and she did lead when she won her last race so is also a bit of a query as to the fav getting to the pegs, market is the best indicator to her chances. #10 Sanreos burnt punters (me included) last time when she galloped and blew the start so forget last run but at her best would be a chance in this. Not many other hopes outside of them but #1 Davpass did run a much improved race last time from the same draw so is worth including in the exotics
Ratings 3/9/2,10/1
Race 3
1 BAROOGA BILLY 1.7
2 FERGUS MACCOOL 3.5
3 BARKERS RUN 101
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 67
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER 34
7 PADDY MY BOY 101
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 17
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 41
10 BOOZY ROUGE 7
11 PROVENANCE 67
Pretty thin race as far as chances go with #1 Barooga Billy being the top pick as looks certain to lead and he has a ton of ability with his manners being the only flaw in his make up. #2 Fergus Maccool is a pretty good 3yo though with form around some nice horses but reckon he will struggle to beat Billy if he leads as expected. #10 Boozy Rouge appreciated the drop in class to bolt in last week but this is much tougher so reckon he might struggle to win but is definitely still the 3rd pick. Place hopes only go to #5 Topoftheclouds, #8 Harleken Wized and #9 Jack Leslie who may improve for the new stable
Ratings 1/2/10/5,8,9
Race 4
1 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
2 SAFINA LEIS 7
3 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
4 DIEBERCHARGED 26
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
6 SAAB QUALITY 7
7 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 3.2
8 CARDINAL TUCKER 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 7
10 PEACE CHIEF 5
The well bred #7 Biggernbettermax won like a good horse last start after copping plenty of early pressure and this is no harder so have him as a clear top pick despite the poor draw. #10 Peace Chief is crying out to win a race and has plenty of ability so is the main danger if driven with a tad more patience than past couple. #9 Iden Justasmyrk would be shorter from any other gate but really find it hard to see him winning from this draw as normally goes best when allowed to bowl along near the front. #6 Saab Quality has disappointed at past few and makes me wonder if he has had enough for this preparation but at his top would go mighty close here. #2 Safina Leis never runs a bad race but is probably better suited to her own sex. Place chances also go to #8 Cardinal Tucker who ran 2nd to Biggernbettermax last time but had his chance so place only from this draw, #5 Legerwood Creek and #4 Dieberdevil both won weak races last time but are a must for exotics and #3 El Jays Modeena beat home Artifice last start who came out and won Sunday night in Hobart so can't be overlooked completely either.
Ratings 7/10/6,9/2/3,5,8/4
Race 5
1 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 3.5
2 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 13
3 JEFFERSON NZ 21
4 GRACIE HART 6
5 ULOS 13
6 TOPUP 13
7 SKY TOWER 2.2
Tricky race this with #7 Sky Tower looking very well graded due to the conditions of the race but his normal racing pattern can leave him susceptible to being dive bombed late so wouldn't rush into silly odds but still can't see him finishing worse than 2nd. #1 Majestic Emperor led and gave plenty of cheek last time and draws to lead again and one of those 2 should win on ability but they might just bring each other undone. If that occurs, #4 Gracie Hart draws to get a soft run and might be the one as she won a red hot race last time when the 2 favs in Cullens Angel (since won at Melton in 1.54.8) and Nobeer Nocheer both worked too hard. The rest all have some hope if the favs overdo it, #6 Topup is flying but up a lot in grade here, #2 Albert Jones won a strong claimer last time and draws to get a great run and both #5 Ulos and #3 Jefferson could surprise at their top
Ratings 7/1/4/2,5,6/3
Race 6
1 KRISTINS NIADH 3.8
2 PEYTON POPPI 34
3 TWENTY ONE GRAND 34
4 HEARTHROB 34
5 HAMISH SANZ 6
6 PARKMOUNT LADY 34
7 BREZHNEV LEIS 17
8 BINABELLE 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 3.8
10 PUT MBACK 6
11 AZARENKA LEIS 13
Strange decision to put a race with 4 first starters as a leg of the quaddie but should be used to that by now! Anyway, it looks as if it can be narrowed down to a few hopes. Changed my mind a few times in this and ultimately settled on #9 Klebnikova leis was super impressive winning Sunday night in her first glimpse of form since being badly checked at devonport one night so might have her confidence back and despite the bad draw is the one to beat as is the best horse in the race and just needs a touch of luck. #1 Kristins Niadh has been very good at past 3 starts running placings and draws to get every possible here, the only downside is she failed badly at Devonport when she led as an odds on favourite a few runs back so have to be a bit wary. #10 Put Mback has been very competitive at first 2 starts inluding a win against a good field, not quite as well drawn this time but still must be respected. #5 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of dash but is very honest and the 2200m trip should suit better than the mile so do rate him a legitimate hope as well. One of that quartet should win. #11 Azarenka Leis does have ability but also does plenty wrong so can't afford any mistakes to be competitive in this and of the first starters #8 Binabelle is clearly the best performed at the trials and is also very well related so watch any market moves closely with her. #7 Brezhnev Leis was disappointing prior to a spell and prefer to wait until he shows something
Ratings 9/1/5,10/8,11
Race 7
1 FORTY TWO GRAND 5
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 26
3 LOADED FRANCO 7
4 PALOONA 41
5 LOADED TO RUN 8
6 GLENWOOD JASPER scr
7 KING ALBERT 21
8 KING OF BLING 2.8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 26
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 15
11 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($5,000) 9
Very keen on #8 King Of Bling to cross this lot early and lead all the way. Led from gate 7 in a similar field last start and copped plenty of pressure but battled on to run a clear 2nd a long way in front of the rest in a 1.59 mile rate for 2200m. The horse that sat on his back and beat him came out and won easily again last Sunday so formline looks good too. Also like where #1 Forty Two Grand is drawn as should be following KOB and he hasn't had much luck at all recently so going better than form suggests. #3 Loaded Franco was very one paced first up but did keep coming to run 3rd after looking gone on the turn so run was okay. Thought that #5 Loaded To Run was disappointing last time but the drive wasn't the best and was a funnily run race so may pay to forgive. #11 Bonnie Wee Laddie needs to be driven cold but given the right run can certainly figure if the leaders overdo it and if taking exotics I would also include #7 King Albert who was well driven to place last time, #9 For My Mum Maggie who should be 3 pegs and #10 The Apprentice who was fair at first Tasmanian start
Ratings 8/1/3/5,11/7,9,10
Race 8
1 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
2 BAD BOY VINNY 13
3 BALENCIA 4.5
4 TROOPER JACK 17
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY 9
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA scr
7 OUR SIR LEW 67
8 OUR SIR THOMAS 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 11
10 SMART PAY NZ 3.2
11 HARLEY FELLA 13
12 CURRYNROSES 11
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 101
Pretty even race and have settled on the Victorian #10 Smart Pay to get away with it. Was well backed when resuming from a short break and bolted in at Mildura last week and did look like a fair horse early last campaign prior to form dropping off a tad. #3 Balencia never runs a bad race with her toughness and from this gate is going to be in the firing line throughout, #5 Prettyboytoby is a frustrating horse in that has to be driven for luck but certainly has the ability to win. The rest are almost impossible to split and all comes down to luck in running with only #7 Our Sir Lew and #8 Our Sir Thomas having no chance
Ratings 10/3/5/1,2,4,9,11,12
Race 9
1 LOADED BOMBER 13
2 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 8
3 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 13
4 LILLANS GIRL 6
5 SARAH ROLAND 21
6 HES NO SAINT 6
7 THE ACES 5
8 AUNTYLIZ 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WHAT A SQUALL 21
10 INCHBYINCH 6
Pretty average race for the maiden 3 year olds and is also restricted to novice drivers so not an enticing combination to jump into betting wise. #7 The Aces was very unlucky in a similar race 2 starts back and then ran a serviceable race from barrier 13 against a better field last time so is in the mix. #6 Hes No Saint has beaten The Aces home at past couple so won't be much between them here. #4 Lillans Girl has shown very good early speed at past couple and over the mile trip here if she led would be in the finish somewhere. #10 Inchbyinch has been disappointing but certainly has the ability to win, #2 Hot Rock Express would come right into play if he could lead but have my doubts on that front. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 4 starts and hasn't produced much as yet but must be showing something to justify the support. Also cannot rule out either #1 Loaded Bomber who is first up for 6 months and has drawn the pole in a mile race so is a chance if going okay, #3 Criminal Lockdown won a trial in very average time but obviously isn't hopeless, #5 Sarah Roland has little tactical speed but keeps plugging home and #9 What A Squall has been fair in trials. No idea to be honest.
Ratings 7/4,6,10/2,8/1,3/9
Race 10
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7
2 OUR LAST KNIGHT 21
3 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 3.2
4 DENVERS BOY 6
5 MASTERAMA 11
6 TENT PEG 21
7 GO GO CISCO scr
8 UNRIVALLED 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 3.8
Reverse order points race and as always with these almost impossible to assess. #3 Rock The Pocket has only had 1 run in 2 years and didn't flatter but has since trialled well enough to win this but not keen on taking shortish odds unless they have actually shown it on the track but has to go on top. #9 James Mackenzie has had one Tasmanian start and was supported in a stronger race than this when he galloped at the start so must respect on that alone. #8 Unrivalled has beaten better than these previously and despite past couple being very average has to be respected as he has actually won 5 races himself and the rest of the field have won 2 races between them. #4 Denvers Boy has been okay at past couple and won't find an easier race. #1 Little Miss Madam has gatespeed and if gets a very soft lead could figure. Bit of a watch on #5 Masterama as well who I think is first up for the Yole stable and whilst Tasmanian form is nothing short of atrocious he did show glimpses of ability when in Victoria so monitor betting. Very difficult race to sort out and no degree of confidence at all though.
Ratings 3/9/8/4/1,5?
--------------------------------------------------------------
Hobart odds and ratings, Sunday August 1
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 11
2 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 4
3 THABELA BRIOSO 15
4 BOOZY ROUGE 3.2
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 21
6 ASHINAGA 34
7 UNRIVALLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET 6
9 FANTASY ROCKS 6.5
10 MEANDPOP 34
Terribly difficult race to start the evening and have settled on #4 Boozy Rouge as the top pick as has been competitive in much stronger races than this of late but with the junior driver lift looks extremely well placed. Doesn't have a ton of gatespeed but his class edge should ensure he goes mighty close. #2 Sweetchillyfilly is no star but is very honest and can see her being in the right place in the run so looks a safe EW bet. #8 Bertils Rocket must be driven for luck and if he gets the right run in transit will be storming late. #9 Fantasy Rocks has gone okay in both Tasmanian starts at similar level and will be around the mark again. #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race to this a few runs back and draws to get that type of run again so not without a chance either. #2 Thabella Brioso is a query resuming from a spell but was very disappointing last time in and would need to improve but its worth noting that she beat Lady Octavia at her last win so obviously has ability when right so monitor betting
Ratings 4/2/8/9/1/3
Race 2
1 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
2 NEW YORK FELLA 11
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 6
4 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
5 GUERRERO 17
6 OUR VILLAGE 101
7 HARBHAJAN 1.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 7
9 IM LE FREAK NZ 21
#7 Harbhajan has destroyed the field at both Tasmanian runs but its worth noting that this race has a lot more depth than what he has previously met and from the extreme draw I wouldn't be taking silly odds. He is still a clear top pick though and should win with even luck. #3 Bayfield High may be the surprise packet as he looks the leader and has run a couple of cheeky races when leading in the past so looms as the main threat. #8 Buddahs Best Mate ran his best race in ages last week and will be around the mark based on that despite the draw as is well up to this at his best. #2 New York Fella is always around the mark somewhere and from this draw is some hope also. The rest are all quite even with only #6 Our Village totally out of calculations
Ratings 7/3/8/2/1,3,4,5,9
Race 3
1 JOEY MERCURY NZ 67
2 HERNANDES 201
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 81
4 WILLY PLAY 34
5 WILLIE WINALOT 9
6 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
7 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SAFINA LEIS 9
9 BLACKPORTNLACE 201
#6 Saturday Nights has won like a very good horse at both runs and looks a good race again for him here. Whilst he has led at both starts he has shown some versatility in that he zoomed home in 56.9 off a slow speed at first start and then raced away after copping a bit of midrace pressure last time. His half brother in Babyitsu can do work in his races as well so despite the wide draw he looks the winner. #7 Iden Justasmyrk has a great record when driven by Nat Emery with 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 drives so despite Saturday Nights beating him clearly last time I still see him as the primary danger as I expect him to perform better with Nat back on. I was a little disappointed in the run of Willie Winalot last time as had every chance and just plugged home but he does have ability and has yet to run a bad one and this is a very thin race. Outside of that trio, the filly #8 Safina Leis has been chasing home the 2 favs recently but hasn't enjoyed much luck so if the breaks come might run a bit of a race. Nothing else is a chance but #4 Willy Play is a clear 5th pick
Ratings 6/7/5,8/4
Race 4
1 BAJARDO RIVER 5
2 BUNJIL BOY 17
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 BROUGHTON 9
5 JET BLACK FLYER 15
6 UNRIVALLED (Em 1) 51
7 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 13
9 CULLENS COUNT NZ 15
10 PADDY MY BOY 51
11 MOUNTAIN MOMMA scr
12 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
13 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 15
Undoubtedly one of the hardest races I have ever seen to work out and nearly every horse has a legitimate chance of winning. I settled on #7 Hydehurst Boy as the top pick as was ultra impressive first up leading all the way when heavily backed and despite the last quarter being a pedestrian 32.0 he did it on his ear and the previous 3 fractions were all good. He promised a bit early in his career but rarely delivered but maybe the penny has dropped but isn't going to find it easy here from the draw as there is speed under him so if he goes forward will have to work. #1 Bajardo River is back in the draw and also has very good gatespeed so appeals as the leader so will get her chance. #12 Harleken Wized was a good run first up in Tassie when 3 wide without cover in a 58.7 last half and never shirked the task so despite the gate is still a live hope. #3 Liskens Gift is a staying type who never gets beaten far and from this draw may surprise at odds. There are a couple of good sit/sprinters in the race in #4 Broughton and #8 The Bullionaire and the race may just pan out to suit them as well with a lot of speed off the front. Also cannot rule out #5 Jet Black Flyer who resumes but has his share of ability, #9 Cullens Count is also a rough hope as was unlucky last start when the run closed in the straight in the same race that #13 Pearls From Heaven was a beaten favourite in who had every hope and will find it tough from here. Even now I haven't mentioned either #2 Bunjil Boy and #10 Mountain Mumma who both ran a placing in similar grade last week. Just one of those races!
Ratings 7/1,12/3,4,8/5,9/2,10,13
Race 5
1 TROOPER JACK 7
2 OUR SIR LEW 51
3 PHANTOM JASPER 11
4 CANCELLARA 15
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 BAD BOY VINNY 26
7 ONTICK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TEEJAY FELLA 15
9 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
10 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 41
11 LOADED TO RUN 4.5
12 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.8
13 IM LE FREAK NZ (Em 1)
Barrier draw has evened this race right up with the 2 top picks drawing the worst barriers. I am keen on #11 Loaded To Run to upset the 3yo here though, he was shunted 4 wide when should have won clearly last time and just got nabbed on the line as it was so with better luck here is a huge chance. The 3yo Lugovoi Leis is another of the bumper Tassie 3yo crop (Gedlee, Udoit, Saturday Nights, Thirsty Mach) taking all before him as his sophomore season winds down but is getting up in grade a tad and never keen on backing 3yo horses giving a start to more seasoned horses but you simply cannot overlook his formline. Reckon one of the 2 of them will win despite the draw. #1 Trooper Jack is sure to have admirers as has the speed to utilise the draw and whilst he did enjoy a good run to win last start, they did run good time. #3 Phantom Jasper is tough and goes forward so if Trooper Jack relinqueshes the lead again he may be the beneficiary which would bring him into play. #9 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed slightly at past couple but would be right in the finish on best form and there are a number of horses with some ability who I am discounting due to their barrier but all are place hopes with the right run - #4 Cancellara, #5 Spendit, #6 Bad Boy Vinny, #7 Ontick and #8 Teejay Fella
Ratings 11/12/1,3/9/4,5,8/6,7
Race 6
1 SEMOSE TWENTY 7
2 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD 34
4 POKER STORM 13
5 KARALTA WIZARD 13
6 JOHNNYACE 21
7 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 17
9 PUT MBACK 21
10 DUSTY KALENA 67
11 IDEN NOSHOT 67
The time honoured Breeders Plate for the 2yo boys looks at the mercy of the unbeaten #7 Quastor Centurion who is unbeaten in 8 career starts. Take little notice of the narrow win last week when he led as is never impressive when he leads but never lets them past when he does. His win in the Dandy Patch was awesome and he should repeat the dose here. #1 Semose Twenty should have run 2nd to Quastor in the Dandy Patch and then boxed on well for 3rd after working last time and from this gate is the obvious danger. Both #4 Poker Storm and #5 Karalta Wizard ran 2nd to the fav at their last start which is an obvious form reference and #6 Johnnyace hasn't had any luck at all recently but faces a task from this draw. #9 Put Mback had a dream run when winning on debut and find this tougher from the draw and will also keep an eye on the market re #8 Winewomenandsong who is a Christian Cullen half brother to a Breeders Crown placegetter so certainly has the genetics.
Ratings 7/1/4,5/6,8?,9/3
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($6,000) 15
2 RONNIE RAT 6
3 ULOS 26
4 ALPINE ART NZ 34
5 SKY TOWER 5
6 JILLIBY RIO 21
7 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
8 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 5
9 JEFFERSON NZ 51
10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 13
Look to be 4 major players here and after changing my mind a few times have settled on #7 Cosmic Under Fire who got a well deserved win last time out. With only 4 runners off the front and 6 off 20 metres it will be a major bonus for whichever horse begins best from the handicap as will be in a striking position early so I do have a healthy respect for both #5 Sky Tower who was dead set slaughtered last time running a 28.9 sectional from the 1200-800m mark so completely forgets his last run and #8 Yuschenko Leis just continues to run a good race every week so can never be discounted. #2 Ronnie Rat has really stepped up this season and generally flies the stand so he should give them something to catch. #1 Waterloo Bay rises from claiming grade but is going well and also loves the stand and #10 Gettysburgh Address benefitted from some questionable drives last time but was still good enough to take advantage
Ratings 7/5,8/2/1,10
Race 8
1 BENEDICTION 1.5
2 SUNRISE LADY 17
3 KRISTINS NIADH 8
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 17
5 GUN FILLY 101
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 67
7 ZIVAS MAGIC 201
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 FLASHY ICON 26
10 AZARENKA LEIS 21
#1 Benediction has taken all before her this season with 5 wins and 3 seconds from her 8 starts and draws to lead and win again. She fell in at Launceston last week but prepared to overlook that run as I believe Gareth went far too slowly on her and it purely turned into a 400m sprint instead of a race. She should lead and win. #8 Stone Skipper ran 2nd to her in the Bandbox final and draws to follow the fav all the way here so is the obvious danger as does possess a very quick sprint. #3 Kristins Niadh ran a very close 2nd to Benediction last week where it developed into a dash home but I doubt she will get the same sort of trip from this gate but has proven that there isn't much between her and Benediction so must be included. Outside of that trio, place prospects go to #2 Sunrise Lady who ran a good race on debut and if she could manage to jump in behind the fav early would be a real place chance. #4 Klebnikova Leis hasn't quite lived up to her early promise but never runs a bad one, #10 Azarenka Leis has certainly improved of late and isn't the worst and #9 Flashy Icon also went okay on debut and may sneak into the exotics. Find it hard to see anything else getting into the mix
Ratings 1/8/3/2,4,10/9
Race 9
1 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 67
2 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
3 MY SCARLETT 26
4 SAFE AND SMART 2.5
5 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
6 WOODLAND CHAPEL 8
7 GUNBOWER JACK 67
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GO GO CISCO 21
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 13
10 HONEST ART 4.5
11 AAPENNON 4.5
12 DREAMON DONNY 67
There appears to be 4 standout chances here with #4 Safe And Smart being the top pick as looks certain to find the pegs and in both his Tasmanian runs he has done a bit of work and never shirked the issue so if he finds the pegs is certain to be the one to beat. #10 Honest Art is as honest as they come and well suited in this class, #11 Aapenon was poorly driven first up from a break then ran a terrific race last week when 2nd to Barooga Billy where they finished off in 27.9 and he never lost ground and would be a lot shorter if had drawn better. #6 Woodland Chapel looms as the only other winning hope as has really improved of late and last couple of runs have been very good. Am a shade worried about the gate but must go in exotics. The rest are only place prospects with #8 Go Go Cisco and #9 Mistover Fizz capable of running a hole with the right run
Ratings 4/10,11/6/8,9
Race 10
1 TWOGRANDAHAND 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
3 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ 3.5
5 LOADED FRANCO 6
6 TOPUP 7
7 PAUL ALBERT 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BILLABONG BERTIE 4.5
9 LITTLE VANCE LOT 11
Sees the resumption to racing of last years top filly #4 Our Zellweger who resumes from a 14 month layoff which makes it hard to be confident with the race. At her best she would lead and beat these and whilst she has gone okay at the trials its hard to know exactly where she is at. Due to her class though she goes on top. #8 Billabong Bertie ran last at his previous start but totally forgive that run as thats the only place he was going to run after holding the lead in that class and he is much better suited back to this grade. #5 Loaded Franco is also resuming from a lengthy break and does have ability and the stable is on fire so watch any betting moves closely. Both #1 Twograndahand and #6 Topup are opportunist types who can certainly win with the right run and I also concede some chance to both #2 Forty Two Grand and #9 Little Vance Lot
Ratings 4/8/1,5,6/2,9
Race 11
1 ARTIFICE 2.5
2 TARA LASSIE 41
3 ARKABE JEWEL 13
4 MODERN LOBELL 13
5 TZU TZU PETALS scr
6 SARAH ROLAND 41
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HES NO SAINT (Em 1) 34
9 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
10 KING OF JEWELS 13
11 FOXYCLOUT 17
12 ARK RAID 11
13 THE ACES 17
Have changed my mind completely here, originally had Artifice as an odds on fav but had another look at her run on Wednesday night and she was terribly disappointing after getting a soft lead in a mile race and I would want minimum $2.50 prior to backing her. Its okay to say that the filly that beat her in Launceston (Ashkalini) is a good horse in her own right but the thing that concerns me is that El Jays Modeena also ran past her and I would want good odds to back her in this. The positives are that she will be fitter for the run back and looks certain to get a soft lead again so must go on top but it is a bit of a moment of truth for her. #9 Daytime Jerry hasn't been far away in some good 3yo races lately and if there is any chinks in the armour of the fav he will be the one to find them. There is a bit of a watch on #10 King Of Jewels who has fair form in the Riverina but has only won 2 of 35 starts which is a tad concerning but must be kept safe. There are numerous place chances in this race actually, #12 Ark Raid ran a good race on debut, #4 Modern Lobell ran a giant race doing it tough at Launceston last time, #3 Arkabe Jewel lacks early dash but has plenty of aility, #11 Foxyclout has been thereabouts of late and #13 The Aces was extremely unlucky in a weakish race last time
Ratings 1/9/3,4,12/10?/11,13
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Launceston, Sunday July 25
Race 1
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but they are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax didn't set the world on fire first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple have been a shade disappointing. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 11
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 17
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO 17
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 15
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 15
12 PROVENANCE 21
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
Launceston, Wednesday July 21
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race but this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS scr
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.5
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at the start in his last mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and the trio of #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1) scr
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading but is some hope if finds the pegs again, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift on recent efforts, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 5
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART scr
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 5
10 DEVIOUS JASPER scr
11 THE MUSICIAN 9
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) scr
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 15
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 9
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there so despite it being a very weak race she did run the time. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under her here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then but not at silly odds as there are question marks around the strength of the formline and a couple of query runners. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good as had a ton of gatespeed and was tough (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore at first Aussie start and won from memory which is unheard of, especially for a 3yo filly taking on older horses) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite not living up to the early promise so must respect at first Tassie start. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
--------------------------------------------------------------
Hobart, Wednesday July 18
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) 34
2 HYDEHURST BOY 5
3 MARACAS BAY 7
4 JAMES MACKENZIE 7
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 34
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 26
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 4
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 21
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 34
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $4 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. They look clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 17
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 6
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
---------------------------------------------------------
Hobert, Wednesday July 14
After a disappointing night Sunday, I am hoping to redeem myself a bit here but it is very, very difficult which is usually the case with these lower prizemoney meetings. Tonight is especially hard though with numerous runners resuming from spells and 6 horses having their first run in the state. Do get some very strange odds at these meetings so my tact is usually just to play around with the value and take exotics
Race 1
1 BETTORS EXPRESS 4.5
2 HELLO JASON DENNIS 17
3 MONITA EM 34
4 SMOKIN MUSTARD 2.2
5 DIEBERDEVIL 2.5
6 CROMBIE BAY scr
7 AWESOME BUDDY 17
Small field with limited hopes and not much value. #4 Smokin Mustard resumes from a short letup but has trialled pretty well for his return and on form prior to a break would beat this lot so prepared to punt on him. #5 Diebercharged is also resuming looks the main danger as has never run a bad race. I Thought #1 Bettors Express was pretty average last Sunday but courtesy of the draw and form prior to last run he has to be respected as the other winning chance. The first starters in #2 Hello Jason Dennis and #6 Awesome Buddy have both only trialled fairly but watch for any market moves. #3 Monita Em can safely be ruled out after sitting leaders back and being gone at the bell last time
Ratings 4/5/1/2?6?
Race 2
1 FANTASY ROCKS 4
2 MOIRA KITE 26
3 MASTERAMA 26
4 GUNBOWER JACK 34
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 8
6 ASHINAGA 8
7 OMBRE OPERATEUR 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING FOR A DAY 5.5
9 DREAMON DONNY 34
10 HARBHAJAN 3.5
Hard to assess with my 2 top raters both resuming from spells. #10 Harbhajan has to also overcome the 10 gate over the mile trip but was impressive at the trials and if he found his best Victorian form would beat these so on the basis of that trial he goes on top despite the draw. #1 Fantasy Rocks was disappointing at first few Tassie starts and resumes here without a trial but strikes a weak race, draws the pole over the mile and always went best over sprint trips in Victoria so watch for any betting moves. #8 King For A Day has been racing in stronger races but draws awkwardly here but will be in the finish with any luck. Of the rest, both #5 Red River Gee Gee and #6 Ashinaga will probably press forward early and if one of them found the pegs would come right into play and #7 Ombre Operateur is going better than form would suggest so include in exotics
Ratings 10/1/8/5,6/7
Race 3
1 NEW YORK FELLA 5
2 THE BULLIONAIRE 3.8
3 ONTICK 3.2
4 OUR VILLAGE 21
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 13
6 TWOGRANDAHAND 5
7 TOUCHA REVENGE 13
#3 Ontick has never been one of mine as always promises and rarely delivers and is always in the market and I can see him going around at short odds again here and if that is the case I will be potting him. In my eyes, its a pretty even race with three other main chances in #2 The Bullionaire who won well last time, #6 Twograndahand has form pretty similar to Ontick actually so they should actually be around the same price and #1 New York Fella is also close to a win. Cannot rule out either #5 Prince Planet who has been slaughtered lately or #7 Toucha Revenge who would be right in the market from a better gate. #4 Our Village resmes from a 2 year spell and trial form has just been fair
Ratings 2/1,3,6/5,7
Race 4
1 BROUGHTON 4
2 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7.5
3 MISTOVER FIZZ 7
4 HONEST ART 5
5 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 51
6 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
7 MARACAS BAY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 6
10 RIVER OF SHADOWS 34
11 GIRLS IN PINK 51
12 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
#1 Broughton lacks a bit of early dash but is going very well lately and if he does get crossed will still be the one to beat with any luck. #4 Honest Art has been placed in 9 of 13 starts and against better than these so looks a good EW chance again. The big query being the ex Victorian #9 James Mackenzie who has run good races at times usually from front row draws but should get a good run through here on the back of its stablemate so watch if any confidence in the betting for him. #2 Little Miss Madam is no star but has gatespeed and whacks away, #3 Mistover Fizz is honest and if it gets the right run could surprise. Also spotted #8 Woodland Chapel run a bottler at huge odds last time but had never done anything prior but would be around the mark with a repeat of last run and the only other possible chance is #7 Maracas Bay
Ratings 1,4/9/2,3/8/7
Race 5
1 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 6
2 UNRIVALLED 4.5
3 PHANTOM JASPER 13
4 BERTILS ROCKET 11
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
6 PARADIGM GIRL 13
7 JACK LESLIE 6.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 9
9 BUNJIL BOY 13
10 ASHINAGA (Em 1) scr
11 TOPPA KARALTA 26
12 PADDY MY BOY 41
13 SWEETCHILLYFILLY 17
Hardly know where to start with this lot they are that even, actually they nearly all go around in the same race every week with about 8 metres separating them so it purely comes down to luck in running. I eventually settled on #2 Unrivalled as my top pick purely on the basis that I think he will get the right run. #7 Jack Leslie is probably the best horse in the race but will have to work from the gate which makes it hard for him. #1 Mountain Momma won well last time which was a marked improvement on previous form but from barrier 1 and Gareth on board there is no reason why it can't repeat the win. I have also blackbooked #8 Liskens Gift for when it draws to lead so if silly odds here will have something on despite the horror draw for a staying type
Ratings 2/1,7,8/3,4,5/6,9/13
Race 6
1 ARKABE JEWEL 11
2 DUNDEES KNIFE 8
3 THIRTYSIXTOES 11
4 SEYMOUR GOLD (Em 1) scr
5 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
6 AUNTYLIZ 7
7 THE ACES 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 INNASBROOK 9
9 TZU TZU PETALS 41
10 SAFE AND SMART 7
11 BE GOOD JENNA 17
12 RUBYS LIFE 9
13 MODERN LOBELL 26
Dead set raffle this race and have opted for #5 Daytime Jerry who was badly held up last time and reckon he will push forward and make his own luck here, if I thought he would lead I would be really keen actually. Couple of big queries in the race are #6 Auntyliz who continues to trial well but misbehave at the races but could definitely win this on trial performances and #10 Safe And Smart is first up in the state and was okay in a pretty handy race at Terang last time and gets Gareth so must be respected. #12 Rubys Life is going a lot better than figure form suggests but the draw makes it very hard again whereas the draw brings all of #1 Arkabe Jewel, #2 Dundees Knife and #3 Thirtysixtoes into play. I also have a huge query on #8 Innasbrook who looked a very good horse in the making 12 months ago but his form tapered off badly but resumes here without a trial so monitor betting moves with him very closely
Ratings 5/6,10/8?/1,2,3,12/7,13
Race 7
1 ROSLYN AREFLYING 34
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 13
3 PANS ILLUSION scr
4 RONNIE RAT 11
5 ALPINE ART NZ 21
6 REDSIDE SHREK 1.7
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ULOS 8
9 ROCK AND RUN 34
Looks a good race for #6 Redside Shrek to bounce back to the winners list in. Has run placings at 3 of past 4 starts in final halves of 57.4, 55.9 and 57.6 and can't see anything in this race running those sorts of times so should use his class edge. #7 Majestic Emperor looks the only horse capable of beating him at his first start back in Tassie. He had been disappointing in both Queensland and Victoria but did trial okay here recently so must be kept safe. Of the rest, #8 Ulos is always a place hope at this level and #4 Ronnie Rat goes best in stands but is still a tad underrated in my opinion. I also thought that #2 Little Vance Lot ran a great race at odds last time so might be some value for exotics
Ratings 6/7/2,4,8
Race 8
1 PENNYS DRAGON 2.8
2 MAROSSI 7
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 8
4 NIBEBO 34
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 SWEETEN THE POT 6
#1 Pennys Dragon has been very good at past 2 starts and draws to get every hope here. #5 Flight To Mikinos may be silly odds here after looking disappointing on face value last time but did run a quick lead time and first quarter so I am prepared to overlook the run and if he could get across these early would be a huge chance. #6 Sweeten The Pot has been extremely disappointing of late but would smash these at his best. #2 Marossi is an opportunist type but should get the right run here and #3 Bayfield High ran a cheeky race at odds last time and definitely isn't the worst. #4 Nibebo is outclassed
Ratings 1/5/6/2,3
Race 9
1 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 6
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 1.6
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 8
4 LASER MOUNTAIN ($5,000) scr
5 BOOZY ROUGE ($6,000) 8
6 BYGONE ERA ($6,000) 8
Stand start claimer to end the night and #2 Waterloo Bay looks a standout. Did a power of work last time in a similar field and just left them for dead at the 400 and the 2nd horse that day (Bonnie Wee Laddie) has since come out and bolted in so the formline is tremendous. The rest are almost impossible to split and have opted for #1 My Centurion as the main danger courtesy of the draw, having first start for new stable and getting Gareth to drive so looks the only danger to fav who has beaten the rest of them convincingly of late
Ratings 2/1/3/4/5
