For something different I am adding a speed map of sorts just trying to ascertain who I think will lead each race (together with what I believe is the percentage chance of that horse actually leading) which may be of assistance to some
Race 1
#1 Aapenon should lead quite easily, can see Alma Grant working to the death at some stage and not much else as far as moves in the race go. Leader = Aapenon 90%
Race 2
Very important to the chances of the fav here as huge price differential if she doesn't lead. Both #4 and #5 have gatespeed but wouldn't cross #3 Riverina Chelsea which leaves #2 Lady Eleanor as the query runner as has led at Mount Gambier in the past. The pole walks out. Leader = Riverina Chelsea 75% (EDIT: fav is a late scr which really makes the leader a raffle with little known about #2 who is first up from Mount Gambier). Can see Sanreos being straight around them midrace to the death though
Race 3
#1 Barooga Billy has a ton of gatespeed and should lead clearly and can't see a ton of pressure to be honest, #5 Topoftheclouds has gatespeed but goes best with a sit so they won't bust him early. Leader = Barooga Billy 90%
Race 4
Struggling a bit to sort this race out with none of the inside 5 runners being noted leaders, #6 Saab Quality would have led easily a few runs back but hasn't shown the same speed lately. Wouldn't be surprised to see Gareth open up #7 Biggernbettermax early and try and clear them. Leader = #7 Biggernbettermax 33% (EDIT: notice that Barrie is driving BBM which changes things a little as no driver in Tassie can get them out of the gate like Gareth, also wound his price out a little in the market from $2.5 to $3.2)
Race 5
#1 Majestic Emperor looks the leader and it isn't a very quick front row at all to be honest. #7 Sky Tower will come to death early in the race. Leader = Majestic Emperor 100%
Race 6
#1 Kristins Niadh has good speed and unless one of the first starters can fly early she looks a certain leader. Leader = Kristins Niadh 90%
Race 7
#8 King Of Bling crossed an almost identical field from gate 7 last start so can see no reason why he won't lead again. Pretty sure #1 Forty Two Grand will retain leaders back. leader = King Of Bling 100%
Race 8
Struggling to sort this out but forced to pick one would opt for #4 Trooper Jack but it has handed up a couple of times recently so no degree of confidence. Going through the front row - 1 has gatespeed, 2 is sit sprint, 3 go forward but just fair gatespeed, 5 no gatespeed. Finding it very hard to be honest and even 3 wouldn't totally shock to see work to the front. Leader = Trooper Jack 35%
Race 9
#4 Lillans Girl has shown exceptional speed at past 2 starts and reckon she gets over again here. #2 Hot Rock Express will be trying to keep her out but can't see that happening. Leader = Lillans Girl 80%
Race 10
#1 Little Miss Madam had led at her past 3 starts and looks to have the speed to do the same here. You would also imagine that with her more fancied stablemate drawn 9 that they would want to lead as well and stop any dangers from leading!! #3 Rock The Pocket does have some gatespeed but doubt it has enough to cross. Leader = Little Miss Madam 90%
Try to finish the rest this evening as only got half the program completed so far and may also slightly amend some of the early prices quoted. Keep in mind that I try to assess the market at around 116 to 117% to fall into line with the TAB as opposed to most media markets which are close to 130% the majority of the time
Race 1
1 AAPENNON 2.2
2 JUSTABRITTMORE 21
3 TEARSOFACLOWN 34
4 CINDYS BABE 21
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
6 TOP PREMIER 7
7 MISTOVER FIZZ 15
8 ALMA GRANT 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LINDYS TIME 51
10 DENVERS BOY (Em 1)
11 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
12 ANILADA 34
13 THE DETONATOR 51
#1 Aapenon has been very good running 2nd at past 2 starts and draws to lead and win here as there doesn't look to be a ton of speed outside of him and if gets a soft lead should get home. #8 Alma Grant is a good mare but a tad concerned as to how much work she will have to do from the gate but definitely won't shirk the task. #6 Top Premier has run some cheeky races of late and with an ounce of luck could surprise. Both #7 Mistover Fizz and #11 Woodland Chapel have been running on well lately and definite place hopes here. Outside of them, #4 Cindys Babe is the next best.
Ratings 1/8/6/7,11/4
Race 2
1 DAVPASS 15
2 LADY ELEANOR 7
3 RIVERINA CHELSEA late scr
4 REAL RESERVE 34
5 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
6 THABELA BRIOSO 34
7 BIG TOWN BABE 34
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 1.8
10 SANREOS 4
What started out as a pretty good race for this class of mares with the scratchings of the 2 top picks so its a pretty thin race now. #9 Doves Patch has been well supported in decent races in Victoria and just keeps burning punters by breaking and also pulling very hard in its races. Obviously has ability though so is the one to beat even from the bad gate. #2 Lady Eleanor is the query runner being first up from Mount Gambier with formline reading just fair but the Yole stable have a good record with new stable additions and she did lead when she won her last race so is also a bit of a query as to the fav getting to the pegs, market is the best indicator to her chances. #10 Sanreos burnt punters (me included) last time when she galloped and blew the start so forget last run but at her best would be a big chance in this. Not many other hopes outside of them but #1 Davpass did run a much improved race last time from the same draw so is worth including in the exotics
Ratings 9/10/2/1,5/6,7
Race 3
1 BAROOGA BILLY 1.7
2 FERGUS MACCOOL 3.5
3 BARKERS RUN 101
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 67
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER 34
7 PADDY MY BOY 101
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 17
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 41
10 BOOZY ROUGE 7
11 PROVENANCE 67
Pretty thin race as far as chances go with #1 Barooga Billy being the top pick as looks certain to lead and he has a ton of ability with his manners being the only flaw in his make up. #2 Fergus Maccool is a pretty good 3yo though with form around some nice horses but reckon he will struggle to beat Billy if he leads as expected. #10 Boozy Rouge appreciated the drop in class to bolt in last week but this is much tougher so reckon he might struggle to win but is definitely still the 3rd pick. Place hopes only go to #5 Topoftheclouds, #8 Harleken Wized and #9 Jack Leslie who may improve for the new stable
Ratings 1/2/10/5,8,9
Race 4
1 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
2 SAFINA LEIS 7
3 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
4 DIEBERCHARGED 26
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
6 SAAB QUALITY 7
7 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 3.2
8 CARDINAL TUCKER 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 7
10 PEACE CHIEF 5
The well bred #7 Biggernbettermax won like a good horse last start after copping plenty of early pressure and this is no harder so have him as a clear top pick despite the poor draw. #10 Peace Chief is crying out to win a race and has plenty of ability so is the main danger if driven with a tad more patience than past couple. #9 Iden Justasmyrk would be shorter from any other gate but really find it hard to see him winning from this draw as normally goes best when allowed to bowl along near the front. #6 Saab Quality has disappointed at past few and makes me wonder if he has had enough for this preparation but at his top would go mighty close here. #2 Safina Leis never runs a bad race but is probably better suited to her own sex. Place chances also go to #8 Cardinal Tucker who ran 2nd to Biggernbettermax last time but had his chance so place only from this draw, #5 Legerwood Creek and #4 Dieberdevil both won weak races last time but are a must for exotics and #3 El Jays Modeena beat home Artifice last start who came out and won Sunday night in Hobart so can't be overlooked completely either.
Ratings 7/10/6,9/2/3,5,8/4
Race 5
1 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 3.5
2 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 13
3 JEFFERSON NZ 21
4 GRACIE HART 6
5 ULOS 13
6 TOPUP 13
7 SKY TOWER 2.2
Tricky race this with #7 Sky Tower looking very well graded due to the conditions of the race but his normal racing pattern can leave him susceptible to being dive bombed late so wouldn't rush into silly odds but still can't see him finishing worse than 2nd. #1 Majestic Emperor led and gave plenty of cheek last time and draws to lead again and one of those 2 should win on ability but they might just bring each other undone. If that occurs, #4 Gracie Hart draws to get a soft run and might be the one as she won a red hot race last time when the 2 favs in Cullens Angel (since won at Melton in 1.54.8) and Nobeer Nocheer both worked too hard. The rest all have some hope if the favs overdo it, #6 Topup is flying but up a lot in grade here, #2 Albert Jones won a strong claimer last time and draws to get a great run and both #5 Ulos and #3 Jefferson could surprise at their top
Ratings 7/1/4/2,5,6/3
Race 6
1 KRISTINS NIADH 3.8
2 PEYTON POPPI 34
3 TWENTY ONE GRAND 34
4 HEARTHROB 34
5 HAMISH SANZ 6
6 PARKMOUNT LADY 34
7 BREZHNEV LEIS 17
8 BINABELLE 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 3.8
10 PUT MBACK 6
11 AZARENKA LEIS 13
Strange decision to put a race with 4 first starters as a leg of the quaddie but should be used to that by now! Anyway, it looks as if it can be narrowed down to a few hopes. Changed my mind a few times in this and ultimately settled on #9 Klebnikova leis was super impressive winning Sunday night in her first glimpse of form since being badly checked at devonport one night so might have her confidence back and despite the bad draw is the one to beat as is the best horse in the race and just needs a touch of luck. #1 Kristins Niadh has been very good at past 3 starts running placings and draws to get every possible here, the only downside is she failed badly at Devonport when she led as an odds on favourite a few runs back so have to be a bit wary. #10 Put Mback has been very competitive at first 2 starts inluding a win against a good field, not quite as well drawn this time but still must be respected. #5 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of dash but is very honest and the 2200m trip should suit better than the mile so do rate him a legitimate hope as well. One of that quartet should win. #11 Azarenka Leis does have ability but also does plenty wrong so can't afford any mistakes to be competitive in this and of the first starters #8 Binabelle is clearly the best performed at the trials and is also very well related so watch any market moves closely with her. #7 Brezhnev Leis was disappointing prior to a spell and prefer to wait until he shows something
Ratings 9/1/5,10/8,11
Race 7
1 FORTY TWO GRAND 5
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 26
3 LOADED FRANCO 7
4 PALOONA 41
5 LOADED TO RUN 8
6 GLENWOOD JASPER scr
7 KING ALBERT 21
8 KING OF BLING 2.8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 26
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 15
11 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($5,000) 9
Very keen on #8 King Of Bling to cross this lot early and lead all the way. Led from gate 7 in a similar field last start and copped plenty of pressure but battled on to run a clear 2nd a long way in front of the rest in a 1.59 mile rate for 2200m. The horse that sat on his back and beat him came out and won easily again last Sunday so formline looks good too. Also like where #1 Forty Two Grand is drawn as should be following KOB and he hasn't had much luck at all recently so going better than form suggests. #3 Loaded Franco was very one paced first up but did keep coming to run 3rd after looking gone on the turn so run was okay. Thought that #5 Loaded To Run was disappointing last time but the drive wasn't the best and was a funnily run race so may pay to forgive. #11 Bonnie Wee Laddie needs to be driven cold but given the right run can certainly figure if the leaders overdo it and if taking exotics I would also include #7 King Albert who was well driven to place last time, #9 For My Mum Maggie who should be 3 pegs and #10 The Apprentice who was fair at first Tasmanian start
Ratings 8/1/3/5,11/7,9,10
Race 8
1 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
2 BAD BOY VINNY 13
3 BALENCIA 4.5
4 TROOPER JACK 17
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY 9
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA scr
7 OUR SIR LEW 67
8 OUR SIR THOMAS 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 11
10 SMART PAY NZ 3.2
11 HARLEY FELLA 13
12 CURRYNROSES 11
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 101
Pretty even race and have settled on the Victorian #10 Smart Pay to get away with it. Was well backed when resuming from a short break and bolted in at Mildura last week and did look like a fair horse early last campaign prior to form dropping off a tad. #3 Balencia never runs a bad race with her toughness and from this gate is going to be in the firing line throughout, #5 Prettyboytoby is a frustrating horse in that has to be driven for luck but certainly has the ability to win. The rest are almost impossible to split and all comes down to luck in running with only #7 Our Sir Lew and #8 Our Sir Thomas having no chance
Ratings 10/3/5/1,2,4,9,11,12
Race 9
1 LOADED BOMBER 13
2 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 8
3 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 13
4 LILLANS GIRL 6
5 SARAH ROLAND 21
6 HES NO SAINT 6
7 THE ACES 5
8 AUNTYLIZ 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WHAT A SQUALL 21
10 INCHBYINCH 6
Pretty average race for the maiden 3 year olds and is also restricted to novice drivers so not an enticing combination to jump into betting wise. #7 The Aces was very unlucky in a similar race 2 starts back and then ran a serviceable race from barrier 13 against a better field last time so is in the mix. #6 Hes No Saint has beaten The Aces home at past couple so won't be much between them here. #4 Lillans Girl has shown very good early speed at past couple and over the mile trip here if she led would be in the finish somewhere. #10 Inchbyinch has been disappointing but certainly has the ability to win, #2 Hot Rock Express would come right into play if he could lead but have my doubts on that front. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 4 starts and hasn't produced much as yet but must be showing something to justify the support. Also cannot rule out either #1 Loaded Bomber who is first up for 6 months and has drawn the pole in a mile race so is a chance if going okay, #3 Criminal Lockdown won a trial in very average time but obviously isn't hopeless, #5 Sarah Roland has little tactical speed but keeps plugging home and #9 What A Squall has been fair in trials. No idea to be honest.
Ratings 7/4,6,10/2,8/1,3/9
Race 10
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7
2 OUR LAST KNIGHT 21
3 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 3.5
4 DENVERS BOY 5
5 MASTERAMA 8
6 TENT PEG 26
7 GO GO CISCO scr
8 UNRIVALLED 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 4.5
Reverse order points race and as always with these almost impossible to assess. #3 Rock The Pocket has only had 1 run in 2 years and didn't flatter but has since trialled well enough to win this but not keen on taking shortish odds unless they have actually shown it on the track but has to go on top. #9 James Mackenzie has had one Tasmanian start and was supported in a stronger race than this when he galloped at the start so must respect on that alone. #8 Unrivalled has beaten better than these previously and despite past couple being very average has to be respected as he has actually won 5 races himself and the rest of the field have won 2 races between them. #4 Denvers Boy has been okay at past couple and won't find an easier race. #1 Little Miss Madam has gatespeed and if gets a very soft lead could figure. Bit of a watch on #5 Masterama as well who I think is first up for the Yole stable and whilst Tasmanian form is nothing short of atrocious he did show glimpses of ability when in Victoria so monitor betting. Very difficult race to sort out and no degree of confidence at all though.
Ratings 3/9/4/8/1,5?
