Still have 2 races to complete but should be finished at some stage today
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 3.5
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN scr
3 INNASBROOK 4.5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3.5
5 SAAB QUALITY 3.5
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 201
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 201
10 MASTERAMA 201
Extremely difficult race to start the evening with multiple winning hopes and it all comes down to how it is run. For that reason and purely on my speed map, I have opted for the dour #4 Iden Justasmyrk as top pick who was soundly beaten by Saab Quality last week but reckon he might roll to the front and always grows a leg in that role. His best form however has been when driven by Nat Emery so the fact she isn't driving sours my confidence a tad but still goes on top. #1 Ashkalini returned to racing in slashing style versus her own age and sex and despite taking on the boys here is going to get a gun trip. #5 Saab Quality was awesome demolishing a similar field last week and is sure to go forward and make his own luck again but its worth noting the last time he sat outside Justasmyrk he was clearly held but does get Gareth on this time. It shows the depth of this race in that I haven't mentioned #3 Innasbrook as yet who has been very good winning both starts since a let up but has found the front both times and doubt he can lead here and might struggle to beat these if he doesn't lead. Of the rest, #7 Denvers Boy was heavily backed and bolted in last week by 12 metres but this is much stronger and from the draw I rate him a place prospect only. No confidence in the race at all though as evidenced by my market with the top 4 picks very even, #7 a clear 5th pick and that all of #6, #8, #9 and #10 are totally outclassed and be gobsmacked if any of them ran in the first four
Ratings 4/1,5/3/7
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 13
9 POKER STORM 7
Another hard race to sort out and have settled on the well bred #6 Winewomenandsong who I know was lucky to win his only start and did get a perfect trip but there were also plenty of positives in the win. Its easy to say he only ran past an extremely unlucky Quastor Centurion who must have lost 40 metres after getting knocked over but don't overlook the fact he finished off in 28.8 and also ran past Semose Twenty who would be a huge chance in this. Don't know much about its gatespeed but still happy to have him on top. The state's leading trainer Phillip Ford also has 2 runners resuming from a spell who both won their previous race before the break in #5 Odins Dragon Rider and #7 Lauras Happy Time which makes it almost impossible to sort out as neither has trialled publicly but both have to be kept extremely safe. #9 Poker Storm was disappointing last time but may go better driven cold as in previous runs, #8 Smokin Mustard had good form earlier in the year but form has tapered off lately but should get a cheap run. #2 Brezhnev Leis was just fair first up but has a better draw here and gets Gareth so might improve. Honestly cannot dismiss any runner totally with even #4 Dusty Kalena who has run last and 2nd last at his 2 runs having a flukers chance as the runs actually haven't been too bad. Good race to stay out of in my opinion
Ratings 6/5,7/9/2,8/4/field
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 6
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 26
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 34
7 FORTY TWO GRAND scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 4.5
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
Tricky little race this and whilst I think #1 Lugovoi Leis will win I can see him being ridiculous odds due to a combination of barrier 1, Gareth driving, good numerical form, small field but still have to tip him even if backing him is another matter. When laying short odds, I don't want any question marks and there are a few with Lugovoi as despite leading all the way 2 starts back his best runs have always been when driven with cover and despite it being late in the year, he is still a 3yo taking on some very seasoned horses. He was also clearly beaten by a couple of runners in this field at his last start as a $2.0 favourite but it was a funnily run race and he drew barrier 12 on that occasion so don't read too much into that formline. So whilst I think he wins, I wouldn't be rushing in. #8 Flight To Mikinos is another 3yo who draws to trail the fav and if there are any chinks in the armour will be in the right place to strike. #3 Teejay Fella has been very good at both runs since a spell and is a legitimate winning hope here. #9 Twograndahand is an opportunist type who can figure if the race is run to suit and both #5 Little Vance Lot and #7 Forty Two Grand are going okay but will need luck from their draws if they are to figure as winning hopes. Geez I get those 2 horses mixed up (Forty Two Grand and Twograndahand) and they always seem to be in the same race every week just to make it tougher. Of the rest, #4 Toucha Revenge would be some hope on best form so include in exotics
Ratings 1/8/3/9/5,7/4
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 3.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1) 26
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
11 SAFE AND SMART 7
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ scr
#4 Topotheclouds has form around some very good horses but is becoming a bit of a professional bridesmaid of late which is a concern. Has been perfectly driven at past few and has looked the winner every time but failed to finish off so is hard to back with any confidence especially when combined with the fact he is infinitely better with a sit despite having good gatespeed. Still have him on top here though as he only got beaten 3 metres in a 57.7 last half at previous run and nothing else in the race has been breaking the minute for the run home. #1 Hydehurst Boy was very good leading throughout first up after copping mid race pressure and pretty plain last time when driven off the speed and didn't run on when they only ran home in 62 so it depends which one turns up as to his chances. Maybe he is just a leader. #11 Safe And Smart is very dour but will be around the mark somewhere but reckon his lack of high speed makes him a place prospect only. #10 Cullens Count is another best suited to a front row draw but going okay and a definite place prospect. Both #2 Bertils Rocket and #5 Pearlsfromheaven are opportunist types who need the right run to figure but could definitely surprise if they did. Can't see anything else winning the race but #8 Lady Eleanor draws to follow the pegs so might sneak a place
Ratings 4/1/11/10/2,5/8
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 3
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 5.5
3 NEW YORK FELLA 6
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 21
12 CRASH CART 34
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
#1 Still Royal was very impressive winning in Launceston last time after working in the run then racing away in the straight in a 58.7 final half. This is a bit tougher and the run to the first corner becomes ultra important to his chances with some speed outside him in #3 and #6. Still reckon he will kick through and retain the front and if he does is clearly the one to beat. #2 Prettyboytoby has had no luck at all recently but thats the life of a sit/sprint horse as he must be driven for luck, this is his best draw in ages though and therefore should settle much closer than usual and be right in the finsh. #3 New York Fella has returned to something like his best at past couple and if he managed to lead would be mighty hard to toss but still some hope if he didn't. #9 Thabela Brioso won well last time but this is much harder but still some hope. The rest are all quite even and all could run into a placing without totally surprising. Think Broughton may be under the odds after its last win when was driven beatifully to not go around a horse from a similar draw but runs like that don't occur too often
Ratings 1/2/3/9/field
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 17
6 DAYTIME JERRY 11
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 11
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
#11 Biggernbettermax has disappointed a couple of times being held up for a late crack at them but be very surprised if he isn't put into the race earlier this time as it is a drop in grade compared to those runs and did win like a good horse 2 runs back. #8 Willie Winalot is no star but tries hard and has chased home some good ones recently and whilst the draw does him no favours is sure to appreciate the drop in class. Reckon one of that pair will win but concede some hope to #1 Ark Raid who was perfectly driven to place last time and should get a good trip this time, #10 Cardinal Dreamer ran 2nd to Saturday Nights a couple of runs back so would be right in the mix with a repeat of that but did enjoy a gun run that night and both #4 King Of Jewels and #6 Daytime Jerry looked disappointing on face value last start but the bolter of the field pulled 3 wide in front of them at the 500 and got in their way so prepared to overlook those runs and Daytime Jerry also carried a flat tyre. #5 Inchbyinch and #10 Loaded Bomber fought out a very average race last time and will find his a lot tougher but maybe Inchbyinch could sneak a place with the right run
Ratings 11/8/1,4,6,10/5
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 4.5
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN scr
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6.5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 8
7 RONNIE RAT 13
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.5
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 26
#8 Cosmic Under Fire has to go on top as has been winning very similar races of late and the 20m maximum backmark in a lower assessed race actually means he meets most of these better off for beating them recently but still not a good thing by any means. The big thing in his favour is that he is versatile and can be driven in whatever manner is necessary given the tempo of the race. I am warming a little to the claimer #1 Waterloo Bay who is way up in class but is simply flying and gets a 20m lift on most of his rivals here, plus looks certain to lead so will definitely be including him as leaders in stands are always some hope. #4 Majestic Emperor has been very good at past couple but was beaten on his merits by the fav 2 starts back then got away with blue murder in front last time (47.6 lead time was laughable then a 34.6 first quarter) when dashed home to win so formline might be a tad suspect. Also cannot totally exclude any of #5 Gettysburgh Address, #6 Yuschenko Leis who was driven too aggressively last time or #7 Ronnie Rat who is a very good stand start horse. #10 Jilliby Rio was also a decent run at first run from a break so has place claims
Ratings 8/1/4/6/5/7/10
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 21
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 8
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4.5
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
#2 Kristins Niadh has run placings at past 4 starts behind the 2 best fillies in the state in Benediction and Klebnikova Leis and gets into a very winnable race here. She draws well, has gatespeed, should lead and this race is over the mile trip so she ticks a lot of boxes so is clearly the one to beat. #5 Stone Skipper has quite similar formlines and it is only the barrier draw that leads me to favour Kristins Niadh. One of those two should win on exposed form but a bit of a watch on #3 Noelsgirl who was well supported at only run but got it wrong and went for a spell, she resumes here without a trial but is an obvious watch. #4 Sunrise Lady has been okay at both starts to date and whilst I doubt she can trouble the favs is a must for exotics as is #8 Flashy Icon who has also gone okay in both starts so far. #1 Rosie Halo and #9 Guernica have been respectable at the trials so come into the mix for exotics as well
Ratings 2/5/3?/4,8/field
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 6
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 2.8
11 SING AND DANCE 3.5
Pretty light on for chances this race and have settled on #11 Sing And Dance to topple the likely favourite in #10 Artifice. They met in the same race 2 weeks ago and whilst Artifice beat Sing And Dance home, the latter pulled her head off in the run. Will obviously be given a quiet time early from this gate so should settle better and have a better kick left at the finish. #10 Artifice has been slightly disappointing at both runs this time in despite winning here last start, she has led and walked as an odds on fav in both runs and found little first up then had a dream run in front and just held off #7 Arkabe Jewel last time so would want better odds than she is going to be from this draw despite the average field. #2 Modern Lobell ran her best race in ages last start and if she found the front here which is a distinct chance she would be right in the mix given a repeat performance. #7 Arkabe Jewel got very close to Artifice last start but had a cosy run and a tad concerned with this draw but will be in the finish somewhere with any luck. That quartet look clearly better than the rest with #3 Taspacedotcom being next best as has been trialling fairly as has #4 Auntyliz but she hasn't produced anything of note at the races as yet
Ratings 11/10/2/7/3
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.2
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ scr
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 26
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
7 MOIRA KITE 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 21
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Looks a good race for #1 Sweetchillifilly but keep in mind she has only won 4 races from 83 starts and been placed on 26 occasions so not a great strike rate. She also hasn't won for 21 starts and been placed 7 times since her last win but Gareth has driven her 8 times in that period for 6 placings so obviously has some affinity with her and jumps on again here. She should lead and provided nothing silly happens should get a soft run given the class of field and if that happens there shouldn't be any excuses. The main and possibly only danger appears to be #6 Special Gallenti who I thought ran very well last time getting attacked in front and only being beaten 6 metres in a 1.59 rate and whilst I can't see him crossing the pole here he will still run a race. #4 Unrivalled has been terribly disappointing recently but did go a touch better last time and should get a good trip from this gate. The query runner is #10 Chanceabet who resumes for a new stable with atrocious form but he does have plenty of ability when right so keep tabs on the market for any confidence. The rest are simply not going well enough to win a race but due to the nature of the field they could all sneak into the latter placings somewhere
Ratings 1/6/4,10/field
