Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 11
2 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 4
3 THABELA BRIOSO 15
4 BOOZY ROUGE 3.2
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 21
6 ASHINAGA 34
7 UNRIVALLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET 6
9 FANTASY ROCKS 6.5
10 MEANDPOP 34
Terribly difficult race to start the evening and have settled on #4 Boozy Rouge as the top pick as has been competitive in much stronger races than this of late but with the junior driver lift looks extremely well placed. Doesn't have a ton of gatespeed but his class edge should ensure he goes mighty close. #2 Sweetchillyfilly is no star but is very honest and can see her being in the right place in the run so looks a safe EW bet. #8 Bertils Rocket must be driven for luck and if he gets the right run in transit will be storming late. #9 Fantasy Rocks has gone okay in both Tasmanian starts at similar level and will be around the mark again. #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race to this a few runs back and draws to get that type of run again so not without a chance either. #2 Thabella Brioso is a query resuming from a spell but was very disappointing last time in and would need to improve but its worth noting that she beat Lady Octavia at her last win so obviously has ability when right so monitor betting
Ratings 4/2/8/9/1/3
Race 2
1 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
2 NEW YORK FELLA 11
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 6
4 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
5 GUERRERO 17
6 OUR VILLAGE 101
7 HARBHAJAN 1.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 7
9 IM LE FREAK NZ 21
#7 Harbhajan has destroyed the field at both Tasmanian runs but its worth noting that this race has a lot more depth than what he has previously met and from the extreme draw I wouldn't be taking silly odds. He is still a clear top pick though and should win with even luck. #3 Bayfield High may be the surprise packet as he looks the leader and has run a couple of cheeky races when leading in the past so looms as the main threat. #8 Buddahs Best Mate ran his best race in ages last week and will be around the mark based on that despite the draw as is well up to this at his best. #2 New York Fella is always around the mark somewhere and from this draw is some hope also. The rest are all quite even with only #6 Our Village totally out of calculations
Ratings 7/3/8/2/1,3,4,5,9
Race 3
1 JOEY MERCURY NZ scr
2 HERNANDES 201
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 81
4 WILLY PLAY 34
5 WILLIE WINALOT 9
6 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
7 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SAFINA LEIS 9
9 BLACKPORTNLACE 201
#6 Saturday Nights has won like a very good horse at both runs and looks a good race again for him here. Whilst he has led at both starts he has shown some versatility in that he zoomed home in 56.9 off a slow speed at first start and then raced away after copping a bit of midrace pressure last time. His half brother in Babyitsu can do work in his races as well so despite the wide draw he looks the winner. #7 Iden Justasmyrk has a great record when driven by Nat Emery with 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 drives so despite Saturday Nights beating him clearly last time I still see him as the primary danger as I expect him to perform better with Nat back on. I was a little disappointed in the run of Willie Winalot last time as had every chance and just plugged home but he does have ability and has yet to run a bad one and this is a very thin race. Outside of that trio, the filly #8 Safina Leis has been chasing home the 2 favs recently but hasn't enjoyed much luck so if the breaks come might run a bit of a race. Nothing else is a chance but #4 Willy Play is a clear 5th pick
Ratings 6/7/5,8/4
Race 4
1 BAJARDO RIVER 5
2 BUNJIL BOY 17
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 BROUGHTON 9
5 JET BLACK FLYER 11
6 UNRIVALLED (Em 1) 51
7 HYDEHURST BOY 3.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 13
9 CULLENS COUNT NZ 15
10 PADDY MY BOY 51
11 MOUNTAIN MOMMA scr
12 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
13 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 15
Undoubtedly one of the hardest races I have ever seen to work out and nearly every horse has a legitimate chance of winning. I settled on #7 Hydehurst Boy as the top pick as was ultra impressive first up leading all the way when heavily backed and despite the last quarter being a pedestrian 32.0 he did it on his ear and the previous 3 fractions were all good. He promised a bit early in his career but rarely delivered but maybe the penny has dropped but isn't going to find it easy here from the draw as there is speed under him so if he goes forward will have to work. #1 Bajardo River is back in the draw and also has very good gatespeed so appeals as the leader so will get her chance. #12 Harleken Wized was a good run first up in Tassie when 3 wide without cover in a 58.7 last half and never shirked the task so despite the gate is still a live hope. #3 Liskens Gift is a staying type who never gets beaten far and from this draw may surprise at odds. There are a couple of good sit/sprinters in the race in #4 Broughton and #8 The Bullionaire and the race may just pan out to suit them as well with a lot of speed off the front. Also cannot rule out #5 Jet Black Flyer who resumes but has his share of ability, #9 Cullens Count is also a rough hope as was unlucky last start when the run closed in the straight in the same race that #13 Pearls From Heaven was a beaten favourite in who had every hope and will find it tough from here. Even now I haven't mentioned either #2 Bunjil Boy and #10 Mountain Mumma who both ran a placing in similar grade last week. Just one of those races!
Ratings 7/1,12/3,4,8/5,9/2,10,13
Race 5
1 TROOPER JACK 7
2 OUR SIR LEW 51
3 PHANTOM JASPER 11
4 CANCELLARA 15
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 BAD BOY VINNY 26
7 ONTICK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TEEJAY FELLA 15
9 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
10 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 41
11 LOADED TO RUN 4.5
12 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.8
13 IM LE FREAK NZ (Em 1)
Barrier draw has evened this race right up with the 2 top picks drawing the worst barriers. I am keen on #11 Loaded To Run to upset the 3yo here though, he was shunted 4 wide when should have won clearly last time and just got nabbed on the line as it was so with better luck here is a huge chance. The 3yo Lugovoi Leis is another of the bumper Tassie 3yo crop (Gedlee, Udoit, Saturday Nights, Thirsty Mach) taking all before him as his sophomore season winds down but is getting up in grade a tad and never keen on backing 3yo horses giving a start to more seasoned horses but you simply cannot overlook his formline. Reckon one of the 2 of them will win despite the draw. #1 Trooper Jack is sure to have admirers as has the speed to utilise the draw and whilst he did enjoy a good run to win last start, they did run good time. #3 Phantom Jasper is tough and goes forward so if Trooper Jack relinqueshes the lead again he may be the beneficiary which would bring him into play. #9 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed slightly at past couple but would be right in the finish on best form and there are a number of horses with some ability who I am discounting due to their barrier but all are place hopes with the right run - #4 Cancellara, #5 Spendit, #6 Bad Boy Vinny, #7 Ontick and #8 Teejay Fella
Ratings 11/12/1,3/9/4,5,8/6,7
Race 6
1 SEMOSE TWENTY 7
2 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD 34
4 POKER STORM 13
5 KARALTA WIZARD 13
6 JOHNNYACE 21
7 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 17
9 PUT MBACK 21
10 DUSTY KALENA 67
11 IDEN NOSHOT 67
The time honoured Breeders Plate for the 2yo boys looks at the mercy of the unbeaten #7 Quastor Centurion who is unbeaten in 8 career starts. Take little notice of the narrow win last week when he led as is never impressive when he leads but never lets them past when he does. His win in the Dandy Patch was awesome and he should repeat the dose here. #1 Semose Twenty should have run 2nd to Quastor in the Dandy Patch and then boxed on well for 3rd after working last time and from this gate is the obvious danger. Both #4 Poker Storm and #5 Karalta Wizard ran 2nd to the fav at their last start which is an obvious form reference and #6 Johnnyace hasn't had any luck at all recently but faces a task from this draw. #9 Put Mback had a dream run when winning on debut and find this tougher from the draw and will also keep an eye on the market re #8 Winewomenandsong who is a Christian Cullen half brother to a Breeders Crown placegetter so certainly has the genetics.
Ratings 7/1/4,5/6,8?,9/3
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($6,000) 15
2 RONNIE RAT 4.5
3 ULOS 26
4 ALPINE ART NZ 34
5 SKY TOWER 4.5
6 JILLIBY RIO 21
7 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3.5
8 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 5.5
9 JEFFERSON NZ 51
10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 13
Look to be 4 major players here and after changing my mind a few times have settled on #7 Cosmic Under Fire who got a well deserved win last time out. With only 4 runners off the front and 6 off 20 metres it will be a major bonus for whichever horse begins best from the handicap as will be in a striking position early so I do have a healthy respect for both #5 Sky Tower who was dead set slaughtered last time running a 28.9 sectional from the 1200-800m mark so completely forgets his last run and #8 Yuschenko Leis just continues to run a good race every week so can never be discounted. #2 Ronnie Rat has really stepped up this season and generally flies the stand so he should give them something to catch. #1 Waterloo Bay rises from claiming grade but is going well and also loves the stand and #10 Gettysburgh Address benefitted from some questionable drives last time but was still good enough to take advantage
Ratings 7/2,5,8/1,10
Race 8
1 BENEDICTION 1.5
2 SUNRISE LADY 17
3 KRISTINS NIADH 8
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 17
5 GUN FILLY 101
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 67
7 ZIVAS MAGIC 201
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 FLASHY ICON 26
10 AZARENKA LEIS 21
#1 Benediction has taken all before her this season with 5 wins and 3 seconds from her 8 starts and draws to lead and win again. She fell in at Launceston last week but prepared to overlook that run as I believe Gareth went far too slowly on her and it purely turned into a 400m sprint instead of a race. She should lead and win. #8 Stone Skipper ran 2nd to her in the Bandbox final and draws to follow the fav all the way here so is the obvious danger as does possess a very quick sprint. #3 Kristins Niadh ran a very close 2nd to Benediction last week where it developed into a dash home but I doubt she will get the same sort of trip from this gate but has proven that there isn't much between her and Benediction so must be included. Outside of that trio, place prospects go to #2 Sunrise Lady who ran a good race on debut and if she could manage to jump in behind the fav early would be a real place chance. #4 Klebnikova Leis hasn't quite lived up to her early promise but never runs a bad one, #10 Azarenka Leis has certainly improved of late and isn't the worst and #9 Flashy Icon also went okay on debut and may sneak into the exotics. Find it hard to see anything else getting into the mix
Ratings 1/8/3/2,4,10/9
Race 9
1 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 67
2 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
3 MY SCARLETT 26
4 SAFE AND SMART 2.5
5 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
6 WOODLAND CHAPEL 8
7 GUNBOWER JACK 67
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GO GO CISCO 21
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 13
10 HONEST ART 4.5
11 AAPENNON 4.5
12 DREAMON DONNY 67
There appears to be 4 standout chances here with #4 Safe And Smart being the top pick as looks certain to find the pegs and in both his Tasmanian runs he has done a bit of work and never shirked the issue so if he finds the pegs is certain to be the one to beat. #10 Honest Art is as honest as they come and well suited in this class, #11 Aapenon was poorly driven first up from a break then ran a terrific race last week when 2nd to Barooga Billy where they finished off in 27.9 and he never lost ground and would be a lot shorter if had drawn better. #6 Woodland Chapel looms as the only other winning hope as has really improved of late and last couple of runs have been very good. Am a shade worried about the gate but must go in exotics. The rest are only place prospects with #8 Go Go Cisco and #9 Mistover Fizz capable of running a hole with the right run
Ratings 4/10,11/6/8,9
Race 10
1 TWOGRANDAHAND 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
3 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ 3.5
5 LOADED FRANCO 6
6 TOPUP 7
7 PAUL ALBERT 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BILLABONG BERTIE 4.5
9 LITTLE VANCE LOT 11
Sees the resumption to racing of last years top filly #4 Our Zellweger who resumes from a 14 month layoff which makes it hard to be confident with the race. At her best she would lead and beat these and whilst she has gone okay at the trials its hard to know exactly where she is at. Due to her class though she goes on top. #8 Billabong Bertie ran last at his previous start but totally forgive that run as thats the only place he was going to run after holding the lead in that class and he is much better suited back to this grade. #5 Loaded Franco is also resuming from a lengthy break and does have ability and the stable is on fire so watch any betting moves closely. Both #1 Twograndahand and #6 Topup are opportunist types who can certainly win with the right run and I also concede some chance to both #2 Forty Two Grand and #9 Little Vance Lot
Ratings 4/8/1,5,6/2,9
Race 11
1 ARTIFICE 2.5
2 TARA LASSIE 41
3 ARKABE JEWEL 9
4 MODERN LOBELL scr
5 TZU TZU PETALS scr
6 SARAH ROLAND 41
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HES NO SAINT (Em 1) 34
9 DAYTIME JERRY 4
10 KING OF JEWELS 13
11 FOXYCLOUT 15
12 ARK RAID 11
13 THE ACES 15
Have changed my mind completely here, originally had Artifice as an odds on fav but had another look at her run on Wednesday night and she was terribly disappointing after getting a soft lead in a mile race and I would want minimum $2.50 prior to backing her. Its okay to say that the filly that beat her in Launceston (Ashkalini) is a good horse in her own right but the thing that concerns me is that El Jays Modeena also ran past her and I would want good odds to back her in this. The positives are that she will be fitter for the run back and looks certain to get a soft lead again so must go on top but it is a bit of a moment of truth for her. #9 Daytime Jerry hasn't been far away in some good 3yo races lately and if there is any chinks in the armour of the fav he will be the one to find them. There is a bit of a watch on #10 King Of Jewels who has fair form in the Riverina but has only won 2 of 35 starts which is a tad concerning but must be kept safe. There are numerous place chances in this race actually, #12 Ark Raid ran a good race on debut, #4 Modern Lobell ran a giant race doing it tough at Launceston last time, #3 Arkabe Jewel lacks early dash but has plenty of aility, #11 Foxyclout has been thereabouts of late and #13 The Aces was extremely unlucky in a weakish race last time
Ratings 1/9/3,4,12/10?/11,13
