Lets just start by saying I have been badly burnt a couple of times by having long range bets but thought I might post a few things on here if I see a decent Green Book opportunity
Best example of being burnt is when I had $1000 on Maldivian @ $26 in the Caulfield Cup at the start of his campaign and was $3.50 fav come race day and I held $5000 @ $3.80 a couple of days prior to the race to green myself up nicely - or so I thought!! What happens is he plays up in the barriers and is a late scratching so my lay bet is voided and my original $1000 outlay is lost due to being an "all in" bet. I hadn't even thought of that scenario as I thought all that could happen was to win $12,000 if he won or $5000 if he lost. As it was, I lost $1000. The bloody thing could have tossed the jockey after 5 metres and I still collect $5000 but they managed to get me even when in a seemingly win/win situation.
Also had a couple of cracks at Safari at big odds for the Hunter Cup and Inter Dominion and was fav for both races the week of the finals then got put into a paddock next to Good Lookin Girl prior to the Hunter Cup and went off his tree and didn't eat or drink for 48 hours prior to the race and then he drew barrier 13 in the Inter Dominion final to go from a $3 pop to a $11 pop.
That still hasn't scared me off but I only do it now sparingly if I see what I deem plenty of value - still shake my head about that Maldivian bet though :)
Do currently have a few sports bets going
Spent $1200 on AFL at beginning of the season
Western Bulldogs $500 @ $7.50
Adelaide $300 @ $13
Collingwood $300 @ $13.0
Brisbane $100 @ $34
Adelaide and Brisbane are going a treat!! but Pies and Dogs are boxing on okay and might be able to use my position with them
Couple of other ones I still have running
Cincinnati Reds $100 @ $51 to win the National League in MLB (currently around $13 I think)
Buffalo Bills $1000 @ $1.91 to win less than 5.5 games (been off the map already this)
Won a fortune when Blacks A Fake won the Hobart Inter and also picked up $4000 by having an $80 outlay on Thomas Berdych at the beginning of Wimbledon by trading him off in the semi and the final so not all horror stories on this front for me. Was one of those lucky ones where you are in the right place at the right time as had just read Scott Ferguson's preview (Sportismadeforbetting) and he had him as the smokey in that quarter and it was the same quarter that Federer was in and Roger was trailing 2 sets to love and a break when I backed Berdych. Thought I had murdered it when Roger came back to win in the first round but was the right bet considering where he was at
