Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Launceston, Sunday August 22

Well isn't this a great meeting!! Being a tad sarcastic in case you didn't guess, just happens to follow on from the $1.6m card for the Breeders at Melton......

Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to break the winners in a year record with 2 meetings left and I am struggling to see him driving one here to be honest but all will get some support simply due to that so might be some lay opportunities along the way

Race 1

1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7

Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3

Race 2

1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21

#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4

Race 3

1 SURPRISE PURCHASE 5
2 HES NO SAINT 21
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 21
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 101
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 4
8 PEACE CHIEF 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 WILLIE WINALOT 6
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 8
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 7

Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on the honest #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #1 Surprise Purchase always runs his best races in front and draws to get that role here so should get his chance if good enough. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/1,8/10,12/11/2,4,9

Race 4

1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
2 CANCELLARA 17
3 HYDEHURST BOY 4
4 KEEN OPERATOR 8
5 NIBEBO 51
6 CURRYNROSES 8
7 TEEJAY FELLA 5
8 HARLEY FELLA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26

Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #7 Teejay Fella might be a touch of value and thought all his 3 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #8 Harley Fella is also going well but the draw might be the issue with him but only needs an ounce of luck to figure. #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 7/1/3,4,8/6

Race 5

1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1)
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34

A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12

Race 6

1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB 34
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17

Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9

Race 7

1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34

Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8

Race 8

1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15

#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8