This is something that took me ages to get my head around as it seems a logical assumption when betting that the better the price, the better the value. Sadly this is not true and is the sucker punch that floors most punters.
It was only on this forum actually that it really came home to roost for me when a regular contributor made comment (cheers Luck) that as punters we almost feel obligated to bet at major metro meetings and especially carnivals like the Melbourne Spring for the gallopers and Inter Dominion for the pacers. The fields have more depth which also leads to more open betting races but is this really value from a betting perspective? I now understand that it isn't.
One of the major reasons I succeed in Tasmania is because you can narrow the winning hopes in nearly every race to around 33% of runners so in a standard field of 11 or 12, you normally have a maximum of 4 winning hopes. Tassie form also has the benefit of horses coming through very similar formlines with only one race per week for each class on average so its quite easy to measure the form of one runner versus another which is a marked contrast to most other states. If we draw on the stats where I tip one horse in every race, I have tipped 52 winners from 103 races with an average winning price of exactly $3 which most people would deem as poor value but surely there has to be a value component added to the winning consistency which most overlook.
A lot of punters point to the spring carnival as the best time to bet due to the perceived value but is it really? I would envisage that it is a lot easier to back a winner at this time of the year where races have a number of stayers resuming who have no hope at the current distance and some runners who can't handle wet ground yet are running for their long term benefit. This narrows down the winning hopes considerably compared to say Derby Day where its every horses grand final and given the right run in transit most could win without totally surprising. Therefore, is there more value in backing one at $4 this week in a race with a maximum 5 chances or backing one on Derby Day at $8 in a field with 14 winning possibilities. I know which odds I would prefer long term.
It sure is "sexier" to say you backed the winner of the main race on the weekend but its a lot better feeling to win consistently and in the case of value when betting, the majority of the time less will actually mean more!
