Getting in early here as heading up the Coast and won't be back until the weekend so might not get the chance to do it prior to race time. Just a word of warning, I obviously haven't had much time to look at the form as the fields only came out this arvo so may be a bit less forthright in opinion than usual.
This is a super race meeting for the middle of winter, Launceston always gets better fields than Hobart though for some reason - probably has something to do with the fact a lot of horses are trained in the north of the state and its a 3 hr trek to Hobart whilst most Hobart horses are trained north of the city so its only a 90 minutes drive for them to head up
Tips all races
R1#3 Codie Karalta 1st $4.60
R2#10 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.60
R3#5 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
R4#9 Loaded To Run 1st $3.30
R5#1 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.30
R6#8 Lugovoi Leis 1st $2.40
R7#6 Yuschenko Leis EW 1st $12.80
R8#2 Glenwood Jasper 3rd
R9#4 Balencia 2nd
Race 1
1 HAMISH SANZ 11
2 SAFE PROSPECT 11
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.2
4 MAJOR RULER 13
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.5
6 BYMARJAC 5
7 JOHNNYACE 11
8 TWENTY ONE GRAND 26
Very good race for the babies and tipping the filly #3 Codie Karalta to beat the boys. She has a huge motor but is still as green as grass but if she gets it right will be mighty hard to beat. #5 Semose Twenty looks the logical danger as has been very good at past 2 starts and this is a similar field. #6 Bymarjac has also ran well at past 2 starts but led on each occasion and might find it a tad tougher from this draw. Of the rest, both #1 Hamish Sanz and #2 Safe Prospect chased the fence home to run placings last time and look similar hopes again from their draws and #7 Jonnyace was beautifully driven to save ground and just miss last time but will have to take the long way home this week. #4 Major Ruler was aggressively driven last time and faded and might go better if sat up and is a place chance also. Even #8 Twenty One Grand isn't totally hopeless but the draw makes it tough over the mile trip so will risk him
Ratings 3/5/6/1,2,4,7
Race 2
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 17
2 KARALTA LADY 7
3 BROWN PAIGE 17
4 DENVERS BOY 17
5 GO GO CISCO 51
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER 13
7 CINDYS BABE 26
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
10 ENCHANTED HEART 1.5
Heat 5 of the Youngbloods series for the junior drivers sees the 3yo #10 Enchanted Heart stand out. If you look through his formlines it reads superbly with 2 wins and 3 placings from past 5 and the form has stood up extremely well from those races. The 3yo filly #2 Karalta Lady rates 2nd and it pays to ignore the duck eggs next to her name at past 2 starts as drew 11 against Gedlee and co 2 starts back so had no hope and then was 3 deep the trip in a 1.58.3 rate last time. She drops in class and is sure to get a better trip this time and looks the only hope of causing an upset. The other 3yo in the race in #6 Just Like Thunder is an improving type and despite rising in class is still the 3rd pick. The rest are all place hopes only with #1 Little Miss Madam probably being the leader of the race so must be included and the trio of #3 Brown Paige, #4 Denvers Boy and #7 Cindys Babe all ran very well at Devonport Monday night in weaker races. Would also include #9 Little Bluejeans in exotics as will be following the pegs and might sneak into the first four somewhere
Ratings 10/2/6/1,3,4/7,9
Race 3
1 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 8
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 13
3 PALOONA 15
4 KING ALBERT 15
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 1.5
6 PANS ILLUSION 6
7 WAYNE ROONEY NZ 51
#5 Nobeer Nocheer has grown a leg this season, he goes forward and makes his own luck and even though he may not lead this time is still a clear top pick. He has bolted in at 3 of his past 4 starts after leading and ran time doing it and whilst he did get beaten the last time he didn't lead that was more caused by slow ones getting in his way. #6 Pan Illusion might be his biggest danger as was terribly driven last week in Hobart with the driver looking to leave the back of the leader who was bolting to trail a horse who was struggling and if they overdo it up front he will be the fresh horse late. #1 Murillo Bromac ran a distant 2nd to the fav last time from the same draw so has to go in the placings again. #2 Forty Two Grand is going okay and with the right run will figure in the placings, #3 Paloona just whacks away at the same speed but never far away and #4 King Albert is also a place hope. #7 Wayne Rooney is going about as well lately as his namesake at the World Cup and is outclassed - just ensured the poms will win their last game and Rooney will score!!
Ratings 5/6/1/2/3,4
Race 4
1 HUGH BROMAC 3
2 OUR SIR THOMAS 13
3 AS YOU WISH 26
4 COMMANDER DATA 41
5 IN CRUISE MODE 8
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 11
7 GOOD TO BE HOLME 41
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOADED TO RUN 2.5
10 EL JAYS MAVERICK 17
Look to be 2 standout picks here in #9 Loaded To Run who would be my best bet from any other gate bar inside the 2nd row and #1 Hugh Bromac. They went round in the same race Sunday night with #9 Loaded To Run being the far better run after working in the run and given even luck from this gate will run 2nd at worst. #1 Hugh Bromac returned from a short Victorian trip with an even 3rd last week after having every hope but the barrier draw brings things right into his favour this time as he should lead and his main danger has drawn awkwardly. I will also be including #5 In Cruise Mode in my quaddie as he went enormous last time after breaking so might be the upset horse. One of that trio really should win the race but its worth keeping an eye out (pardon the pun) on #6 An Eye For An Eye who joins the Gary Bishop stable and does have plenty of abilty when right so monitor any betting moves with him. Of the rest, place hopes go to #2 Our Sir Thomas who won a weak race Monday night, #3 As You Wish who had no luck on Monday and #10 El Jays Maverick who is going better than his form suggests
Ratings 9/1/5/6/2,3,10
Race 5
1 THIRSTY MACH 1.7
2 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
3 PRISONBREAK 8
4 SCARLET HEART 101
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 13
6 BUDDY BEAUTY 34
7 THE ACES 51
8 INCHBYINCH 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ELL ESS BABE 4.5
10 WHY TAKE TIME 67
11 TOUCHWOOD AVASTA scr
12 DIEBERCHARGED 51
Look to be a couple of standouts in this race also with the colt #1 Thirsty Mach and the filly #9 Ell Ess Babe looking clear top picks. There is also a decent argument that outside the 2 stars of their respective 3yo class in Gedlee and Maggie Kennedy that they are nearly the best 3yo of their sex in the state and here they are served up in a 3C0 race which probably best sums it up. #1 Thirsty Mach has disappointed at times this season but got a well deserved win last time as his record of 3 wins from 12 starts would look decidedly better if not for consistently running into Gedlee so he simply must go on top as should lead and have no excuses. The filly #9 Ell Ess Babe will probably be right on his back though so if he cops any pressure she will be in the right spot to take advantage so is a clear 2nd pick and #3 Prisonbreak is a standout 3rd pick as is tough and also very close to a win. They definitely should run the trifecta unless there is a war between the 1 and the 3 early but surely common sense will prevail. Outside of them, #5 Legerwood Creek ran a top race last time and is an improver, #6 Buddy Beauty is an honest little bloke who just lacks a bit of dash but will plug home. #8 Inchbyinch led and fell in at Devonport and the draw makes it extremely tough here and #12 Diebercharged does have some ability but manners let him down
Ratings 1/9/3/5/6
Race 6
1 THE MUSICIAN 8
2 FROSTY STUMPJUMPER 41
3 HIGHFLYIN FRED 34
4 KAMWOOD KENNY 8
5 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 21
6 KEEN OPERATOR 7
7 LIGHT THE LANTERN 41
8 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
---------- Second Row ----------
9 PRINCE NIADH 21
10 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
11 MEANDPOP (Em 1)
Hard to rate this race as #8 Lugovoi Leis looks way better than the locals but the Victorian #4 Kamwood Kenny is resuming off some reasonable form and despite the trials being just fair on paper, you have to respect it. #8 Lugovoi Leis is another 3yo taking on the older ones and has a horror gate so wouldn't rush into the shorts but his past few runs have been excellent especially his past 2 coming from off the speed to make ground in closing secrionals of 28.1 and 28.4 respectively. Given even luck he should win but it is a junior drivers race and see some strange tactics adopted on roughies in these races sometimes. #6 Keen Operator has only won 1 of 57 starts but past 2 have been very good and he will keep coming. #1 The Musician has to be driven for luck but if the runs come at the right time is always a hope and #10 Topoftheclouds is always an EW hope in this type of race. As stated previously, its hard to line up #4 apart from watching for any market moves
Ratings 8/1,6/4?/10
Race 7
1 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3.5
2 BUBBAS A FAKE 17
3 KALYPSON KID 6
4 REDSIDE SHREK 7
5 SKY TOWER 9
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 SHEZ RYLEYMAK 4.5
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 26
Keep changing my mind with this race and going to take the field in my quaddie. Just don't like the way the speed map plays out which can make for some strange results. Without a great deal of confidence, I am going to put #6 Yuschanko Leis on top as don't think he has got the credit for how well he is actually going and might be silly odds here and its the type of race you want value in. #7 Shez Ryleymak probably ran the worst race of her life in Melbourne last time but provided she is back to her best is the one to beat here even from the draw. #1 Cosmic Under Fire actually ran last against almost the exact field last time from a bad gate and is likely to get headed off but is going to get the right run and if he gets out will be the horse to beat which shows how hard it is. #3 Kalypson Kid has disappointed at past few in Victoria but must be kept safe at first start down in Tassie. #4 Redside Shrek has returned to something like his best at past couple but I just don't know where he is going to end up in the run. #5 Sky Tower is probably the death seat horse and will keep whatever leads honest as the big fella gets up on the steel and whilst #8 Gettysburgh Address is going to need a ton of luck from the draw he does have a sneaky hope if things fall into place
Ratings 6/1,7/3,4/5
Race 8
1 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 4.5
2 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
3 KING OF BLING 6
4 MAROSSI 21
5 TOPUP 5.5
6 DUART CASTLE scr
7 JONZAAK 9
8 PAUL ALBERT 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
Very good race but almost impossible to assess but should offer good value. #2 Glenwood Jasper was enormous in defeat here last start after being checked early and is the one horse that can make its own luck so have him on top. #1 The Musics Over finally got some overdue luck to salute last time and from the draw will be right in the finish again. #3 King Of Bling has been well driven to run the quinella behind a couple of good ones in both starts since coming to Tassie and his gatespeed may determine the pattern of the race as if he leads and hands up then the pole is in trouble and the ones drawn wide come into play and vica versa. Its just one of those races. I can see the race suiting #5 Topup who is really going well lately and has also been chasing home some smart ones but she has her hoof right on the till. Of the rest, #9 Advance Dundee had a cheap run when beating #2 last time but draws to get that type of run again and #6 Duart Castle is a funny horse as would be a $4 pop if he could find the pegs and a $50 chance if he didn't so have to keep him relatively safe despite doubting he will lead here. #7 Jonzaak is also going extremely well and wouldn't surprise if gets any luck from the draw. The only runner with no hope is #8 Paul Albert
Ratings 2/1,5/3/6,7,9/4
Race 9
1 MONICAS NOTCH 17
2 CLOSE BY 11
3 REAL RESERVE 4.5
4 BALENCIA 3.5
5 DAVPASS 34
6 SANREOS 4.5
7 CURRYNROSES 4
The mares finish up the night and a very hard race to get out if you have to, I thought #7 Currynroses was perfectly driven and didn't go on with it last time but this is easier but still couldn't take short odds, her stablemate #4 Balencia just appears to have lost all her zip at past couple and unless its a slog to the line she gets outsprinted but will probably look the winner at some stage. #3 Real Reserve looks a certain leader and if gets it as easy as it did last time will probably win but surely couldn't get it that easy again. The big query is #6 Sanreos who would beat these on best form but her form tapered off at the end of last campaign and hasn't been seen at the trials recently. One of those 4 should definitely win with both #2 and to a lesser degree #1 a place hope
Ratings 4/3/6,7/2/1
