Sunday, June 20, 2010

Devonport odds and ratings - Monday Night June 21

Race 1

1 Inchbyinch (C) B J Withers 2.3
2 Sheez Exquisite (C) T E Rattray 11
3 No Time To Dream (C) A L Crossland 17
4 Surprise Purchase N B Ford 8
5 Scarlet Heart B E Wise 26
6 Hot Rock Express (C) M M Maine scr
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7 Next Sound B A Gebel 4.5
8 Celtic Legend (C) J W Johnson 11
9 Spirited Ruler D G Medhurst 34
10 Rubys Life (C) J C Howlett 11

Another heat of the Youngbloods for the junior drivers and my top pick is #1 Inchbyinch who was smashed in front last time (first 2 qtrs 28.6, 29.7) and tired and this race looks more his go. He looks the leader, the 1930m trip suits and Devonport is that leader biased it isn't funny. Shouldn't be any excuses anyway. There is some speed outside him actually with #4 Surprise Purchase looking the main danger of getting over (doubt he will) but if he did would be right in the mix. If the pole leads it brings #7 Next Sound right into play as should be trailing him and for that reason they are the 2 I will be betting around (might even throw #2 into exotics in case it jumps in behind the pole early). Nearly every other runner in the field is going okay but the draw has made it very difficult for most of them around this tight circuit
Ratings 1/7/2,4,8,10/3,6

Race 2

1 Rojen Alicastreos (C) V Burke 34
2 Bajardo River K W Toulmin 2.8
3 Mighty Myf D G Medhurst 21
4 Brown Paige G W Madden 4
5 Dream Of The West J H Walters 8
6 Masterama S J Ford 21
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7 Dolly Girl (C) J W Johnson 15
8 Mistover Fizz R J Hadley 8
9 Top Premier S B Ford 34
10 Little Bluejeans (1st Em) scr
11 Denvers Boy (C) T E Rattray 8

#2 Bajardo River was going to be my best bet of the night but was made an ODM horse last Wednesday night so now starts outside the front which changes things a lot. I still have him on top as reckon he is still a chance of leading but with the change in barriers has gone from a certain leader to a maybe find the front so not as confident anymore. #4 Brown Paige has been racing in the same races at past few starts as the 2 and hasn't enjoyed the best of luck so is a definite danger. #5 Dream Of The West is very one paced but if it found the front could take running down and both #8 Mistover Fizz and #11 Denvers Boy have claims but their draws make it tough. Also respect #10 Little Bluejeans if it gains a start. #7 Dolly Girl is very well bred from the same maternal line as the great producer New Arrival but trials have been very ordinary so watch betting. #6 Masterama had decent form in Victoria but its 2 Tasmanian runs have been abysmal.
Ratings 2/4/5,8,11

Race 3

1 Dawn Ofa Niadh (C) J W Johnson 3.5
2 Seascape Artiste G W Rattray scr
3 Tisu Holly (C) M M Maine 15
4 Azarenka Leis S M Barnes 21
5 Angel Liz T J Maine 26
6 Binabelle N B Ford scr
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7 Cheryl Mary R L Hillier scr
8 Kristins Niadh J H Walters 26
9 Klebnikova Leis (C) D W Dornauf 3.5
10 Imperial Majesty R L Ashwood 7
11 Stone Skipper S B Ford 4.5

A very good race this for the 2yo fillies with #9 Klebnikova Leis being my top pick. Can see her being the first one around the field and controlling the race from the chair. #11 Stone Skipper has a ton of speed but will need all the favours from the draw but still the main danger. #10 Imperial Majesty has had no luck at all recently and if she gets some here might be the blowout. #1 Dawn Ofa Niadh looks a certain leader and does have ability so has to be a chance around Devonport on that point alone. Those four clearly rate ahead of the other raced horses but there has to be a watch on #6 Binabelle who is from a good producing family and only trialled fairly but nearly every foal from the dam has been a good juvenile so watch betting with her
Ratings 9/1,11/10/6

Race 4

1 Close By G W Rattray 15
2 Toppa Karalta S J Ford 5.5
3 Oscars Ace N B Ford 15
4 Prettyboytoby (C) M M Maine 6.5
5 Prince Niadh (C) J W Johnson 5.5
6 Frosty Stumpjumper S B Ford 13
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7 Our Sir Thomas R J Hadley 7
8 Moira Kite D G Medhurst 26
9 As You Wish (C cl) J C Howlett 5
10 Light The Lantern (C) B K Parker 21

There is a ton of gatespeed in this race with #s 1,2 and 5 all with good speed and for that reason I don't like the race at all and will be opting for a swooper to come over the top at a bit of value. #4 Prettyboytoby fits that bill and just needs a touch of luck to find a spot early and will be the fresh horse late. #9 As You Wish is also going well and is another who would relish a hectic early speed. Reckon that #2 Toppa Karalta will cross the pole and keep out #5 Prince Niadh so is best of the leaders but don't hold me to that as #5 flies early and if he led would become the one to beat. #7 Our Sir Thomas was dreadful last time but draws to get the type of run he loves. Its just about a field job though and you know the rules - when it looks like a hot speed they walk and vica versa
Ratings 4/9/2,5,7/field

Race 5

1 The Cherokee Chief J H Walters 9
2 No News At Seven G W Rattray 21
3 Laser Mountain H F Szczypka 21
4 Prince Of Tara A C Duggan 6
5 Rowella Knight M Yole 17
6 Nibebo S J Ford 26
7 Waterloo Bay N B Ford 2.2
8 Wayne Rooney (C) M M Maine 15
9 Costa Smeralda (C) T E Rattray 5

Stand start for the claimers and don't bet in them as a rule and won't be changing my tune here. #7 Waterloo Bay just keeps getting served up at juicy odds and winning easily but its got to the stage where I can't jump on now but based on past few runs he simply has to win as meets the same field. #9 Costa Smerelda is getting very close to a win and will be in the finish and #4 Prince Of Tara isn't going as well as he was but looks the probable leader so have to include in the chances. You can take your pick with the rest of them as nothing going at all well amongst them but #1 The Cherokee Chief might be an improver.
Ratings 7/9/4/1/field

Race 6

1 Bornfirst S M Barnes 4
2 Wholelotasound (C cl) J C Howlett 5.5
3 Cindys Babe M D Castles 8
4 Monicas Notch L A Dornauf 13
5 Cranleigh Lass (C) J W Johnson 17
6 Rocky Creek Scratched scr
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7 We Wont Go There S B Ford 4.5
8 Most Happy Jasper Scratched scr
9 Crash Cart H F Szczypka 3.8
10 Touchwood Fortune J H Willett 34

What a trainwreck this race is and to be honest none of them have the form to ever select on top but one of them will crack it here. #9 Crash Cart definitely has more ability than any other runner in the race but can mess it up at times so hard to back at shortish odds but still must go on top. #1 Bornfirst looks the leader and totally forget last run when they went mad early so might be the safe EW bet if you want to invest on the race. #7 We Wont Go There has been going okay and looks likely to get a good trip here, #2 Wholelotasound looks the only other winning hope but he does go best in front and doubt he can cross the pole but is as good as any of them ability wise. Of the rest, #3 Cindys Babe is still very green but not hopeless and #4 Monicas Notch won a similar race 3 starts back. #5 Cranleigh Lass isn;t totally hopeless and might sneak a place but can't have #10 Touchwood Fortune at all
Ratings 9/1/7/2/3,4/5

Race 7

1 Topotheclouds (C) J W Johnson 4
2 Pop Billy B A Gebel 34
3 Trooper Jack (C) J C Howlett 7
4 Unrivalled D G Medhurst 13
5 Good To Be Holme (C) T E Rattray 17
6 Commander Data (C) B J Withers 21
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7 Harley Classic N B Ford 4
8 Boozy Rouge (C) A L Crossland 7
9 November Twenty B E Wise 11
10 Bad Boy Vinny (C) M M Maine 11

Hard race to assess this, originally liked #1 Topoftheclouds but worried on a couple of fronts now - he has always gone better with a sit and will probably get attacked by #6 Commander Data early who is a bit of a pest actually when it draws the front. #7 Harley Classic was flying prior to a spell and resumes here and draws to follow the pole everywhere. #8 Boozy Rouge is mixing his form but well up to this at his best and #3 Trooper Jack won a weak race in emphatic style last time so is a chance again. #9 November Twenty is going okay but tends to race best when drawn to lead and both #4 Unrivalled and #10 Bad Boy Vinny are sit/sprint types who can always cause an upset if the breaks come their way. I backed #5 Good To Be Holme last time and fell in after a perfect run and this looks much harder
Ratings 1/7/3/8/4,9,10

Race 8

1 Duart Castle M Yole 2.5
2 Jonzaak R J Hadley 4
3 Paloona (C cl) B K Parker 21
4 King Albert (C cl) M M Maine 8.5
5 Grand Brook (C cl) D W Dornauf 17
6 Berezovsky Leis W G Dornauf scr
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7 Sweeten The Pot S B Ford 3.2

Clearly the best race of the night and it is the last on the card for the 2nd night in a row (they seriously need to look at the programming). #1 Duart Castle simply grows a leg when he leads and is a totally different horse as opposed to when he cannot and looks certain to hold the front here. #7 Sweeten The Pot will be trailing him and is probably a better horse but will need the gap to come in time. #2 Jonzaak actually started near favourite in the race Duart Castle won at big odds last time so is a definite chance as had no chance that race was run. One of that trio should definitely win with #4 King Albert the next best but all runners do go okay so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 1/7/2/4/field