Best Bet
R4#6 Saab Quality
Best Value
R5#8 Domani Gem
Quaddie
6/4,8/1,2,3,8/field
Try to do markets to around 120% to fall in line with TAB odds as a value indicator
Race 1
1 Bymarjac 4.5
2 Bettors Express 11
3 Imperial Majesty3.8
4 Monita Em 67
5 Semose Twenty 3.5
6 Scottys Jewel 15
7 Wundababe 21
8 Woody Beours scr
9 Klebnikova Leis 4.5
Hard race to start the night with 4 clear top picks and all 4 have claims. #3 Imperial Majesty has raced in good fields from bad draws of late and looks suited, #5 Semose Twenty ran home well in a 28.6 closing split last time, #9 Klebnikova Leis blew the start last time and run was better than it looks on paper and #1 Bymarjac resumes and was placed in both starts before a spell but in pretty weak races but you have to respect from the draw
Ratings 3,5/9/1
Race 2
1 Jebs Xtreme 34
2 Red River Gee Gee 17
3 Sweetchillifilly 11
4 Flying Dubai 5.5
5 Sapphire Island 17
6 Underdog 2.3
7 Bertils Rocket 13
8 Liskens Gift 17
9 Bunjil Boy 34
10 Flight To Mikinos 5.5
Pretty thin race this with #6 Underdog looking very hard to beat, was extremely unlucky last time and has raced against far better horses than these. Have a healthy respect for the ex Victorian in Flight To Mikonos who has been chasing some good ones of late and will find this a lot easier. Only other winning hope is #4 Flying Dubai who is honest and won't be far away.
Ratings 6/10/4/2,3,5,7,8
Race 3
1 Go Go Cisco 41
2 Ashinaga 6
3 River Of Shadows scr
4 Deejay Bromac 15
5 Dreamon Donny 26
6 Strategic Miss 3.2
7 Justabrittmore scr
8 Broughton 5
9 Wizard Jones 3.5
10 Maracas Bay 26
11 Odins Angel Dust 21
Shocker of a race this highlighted by the fact that my top pick in #6 Strategic Miss is a 23 start maiden but ran a very good race last time and a repeat of that should see her winning, #9 Wizard Jones has been competitive with better horses and will go close here. Of the rest, #8 Broughton would blow these away if he recaptured his form of 12 months ago but going just fair at present and the only other winning hope is #2 Ashinaga
Ratings 6,9/2,8/field
Race 4
1 Mister Gunadoo 17
2 Modern Promise 67
3 Tzu Tzu Petals 15
4 Dundees Knife 15
5 Prisonbreak 4.5
6 Saab Quality 2.3
7 Safina Leis 4.5
8 Glenfern Cruiser 8
#6 Saab Quality has always looked a good horse at the trials and finally produced it at the races last time when he ran a cheeky 3rd to the best 3YOs in the state (Gedlee, Thirsty Mach). Has plenty of gatespeed and if he got over to lead here would just about be unbeatable. #5 Prisonbreak is a dour type who looks the only possible horse who may keep #6 out early and won't be far away. #7 Safina Leis was disgraceful last time but this is easier and has always raced best with a sit but draw makes it hard. #8 Glenfern Cruiser the only other possible chance
Ratings 6/5,7/8
Race 5
1 Southern Playmate 11
2 Phantom Jasper 8
3 Lomandra 21
4 Ontick 3.5
5 Guerrero 7
6 Duart Castle 13
7 Berezovsky Leis 8
8 Domani Gem 4
9 Bad Boy Vinny 9
Really liked the run of #8 Domani Gem last time as got hammered in front with every quarter sub 30 secs and just got nabbed late, obviously going to need luck from the draw but should be decent value. I have always believed that #4 Ontick is over-rated but is still a strong winning hope. Reckon one of those 2 will win but I concede place chances to every horse in the race
Ratings 8/4/5,7/field
Race 6
1 Billabong Bertie 6
2 King Of Bling 4
3 Cullens Angel 2.5
4 Forty Two Grand 17
5 Timesonyourside 26
6 Ronnie Rat 11
7 Camelots Raider 34
8 Secret Rendezvous 6.5
Hard race to assess as difficult to work out what is going to happen early with all of 1,2,3 having gatespeed. For that reason I am putting the claimer #8 Secret Rendezvous on top as draws to trail through well and might be the fresh horse late at a bit of value. #3 Cullens Angel is flying currently but goes best in front and not sure if she will lead today. #2 King Of Bling went okay behind a smart one at first Tassie start and will be competitive again from the draw. #1 Billabong Bertie is a C4 racing in a C6-7 race which is strange but from the draw is a chance
Ratings 3,8/2/1/6/4
Race 7
1 Touchwood Teeksta 9
2 November Twenty 9
3 Cats And Dogs 5
4 Pennys Dragon 7
5 Touchwood Bucksta 17
6 Crash Cart 41
7 Prince Planet 26
8 Twograndahand 8
9 Toucha Revenge 11
10 Glory Is Illusive 21
11 Unrivalled (1st Em) scr
12 Mickey Delahey 17
13 Paul Albert 51
14 Odins Constantine 9
15 Buddahs Best Mate 15
Don't know where to start with this race, stand start with 14 runners and nearly every runner some hope, envisage a ton of moves being made during the race which just makes it more difficult to work out. #4 Pennys Dragon is probably the best horse in the race but stand is a query with her plus has to be driven for luck, #3 Cats And Dogs is no star but does things right and whacks away, #2 November Twenty led and won its heat so a chance again and #14 Odins Constantine has to overcome the handicap but if they go mad he will be the one coming late
Ratings 4,14/2,3,8/1,9,12,15
Race 8
1 Bad Boy Bert 34
2 Our Sir Lew 3.5
3 Karoola Town 21
4 Cullens Count 4.5
5 Paddy My Boy 41
6 Still Royal 3.5
7 Pearls From Heaven 6
8 The Bullionaire 34
9 Titled 34
10 Ark West 13
11 Meandpop 41
Look to be only 4 winning hopes in this. #6 Still Royal is going very well but is going to need luck from the draw but if he gets any he should win, #2 Our Sir Lew did the job last week and reckon he wins again if he leads but not sure if he can as #4 Cullens Count can begin quickly and his last couple have been a return to form. #7 Southern Playmate had her birthday last time when led and walked in a mile race but won't get any favours from the draw here but can't totally dismiss. Only other possibility of an upset is #10 Ark West
Ratings 2,6/4/7/10
Race 9
1 Our Sir Jeckyl 1.3
2 Alby Albert 4
3 Bygone Era 41
4 Redside Shrek 13
Not the best race in the world to get out on with no value at all in the race. #1 Our Sir Jeckyl is probably the best horse in the state currently and will get a soft lead here and should be able to zip home. #2 Alby Albert returns to Tassie and looks certain to be trailing the fav and therefore probably ensure he runs 2nd and #4 Redside Shrek is lengths below his best currently but still will beat home the claimer Bygone Era who has been running last in $4K claimers which just about sums up his chances
Ratings 1/2/4
