Probably went off a bit half cocked explaining the virtues of betting on Tassie Trots as opposed to lots of other venues but think these results add some credence to my point.
Ever since I started posting a tip for all races in Tassie, twice I have got the Quaddie straight out and these are the overall figures for those 4 meetings
27/6 - 7 winners from 9 races, collect for $1 investment = $27.30
21/6 - 4 winners from 8 races, collect for $1 investment = $12.20
20/6 - 4 winners from 10 races, collect for $1 investment = $18.80
13/6 - 7 winners from 10 races, collect for $1 investment = $17.80
Totals:
22 winners from 37 races = 59.4%
Collect $76.10 from $37 outlay giving a ROI > 100%
It may not be as sexy as betting at major metro meetings but its a ton easier to win.
Tonight's meeting is a disgrace with 80% of the horses trained in the same vicinity and tend to get some strangely run races if you get my drift .......
Forced to pick one for the meeting would go
R7#10 Its A Hoot
Monday, June 28, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
Weekend Tips
Friday
MELTON
Mustang Mach
Flyin Interstate
Saturday
CRANBOURNE
Flying Huntsman
Sunday
TERANG
R1 The Black Queen
R2 - quinella 4,8 (looks a moral)
R5 The Dog Soldier
R7 Athleticism
Full Tassie preview for Sunday including tips in previous post
MELTON
Mustang Mach
Flyin Interstate
Saturday
CRANBOURNE
Flying Huntsman
Sunday
TERANG
R1 The Black Queen
R2 - quinella 4,8 (looks a moral)
R5 The Dog Soldier
R7 Athleticism
Full Tassie preview for Sunday including tips in previous post
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Thursday Tips
THURSDAY
Geelong
5.02pm: R7#1 Artoc 1st $3.10
Melton
8.00pm: R4#4 Bought On Looks UNP, super run though
Full Launceston preview for Sunday below
Geelong
5.02pm: R7#1 Artoc 1st $3.10
Melton
8.00pm: R4#4 Bought On Looks UNP, super run though
Full Launceston preview for Sunday below
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Launceston odds and ratings - Sunday June 28
Getting in early here as heading up the Coast and won't be back until the weekend so might not get the chance to do it prior to race time. Just a word of warning, I obviously haven't had much time to look at the form as the fields only came out this arvo so may be a bit less forthright in opinion than usual.
This is a super race meeting for the middle of winter, Launceston always gets better fields than Hobart though for some reason - probably has something to do with the fact a lot of horses are trained in the north of the state and its a 3 hr trek to Hobart whilst most Hobart horses are trained north of the city so its only a 90 minutes drive for them to head up
Tips all races
R1#3 Codie Karalta 1st $4.60
R2#10 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.60
R3#5 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
R4#9 Loaded To Run 1st $3.30
R5#1 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.30
R6#8 Lugovoi Leis 1st $2.40
R7#6 Yuschenko Leis EW 1st $12.80
R8#2 Glenwood Jasper 3rd
R9#4 Balencia 2nd
Race 1
1 HAMISH SANZ 11
2 SAFE PROSPECT 11
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.2
4 MAJOR RULER 13
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.5
6 BYMARJAC 5
7 JOHNNYACE 11
8 TWENTY ONE GRAND 26
Very good race for the babies and tipping the filly #3 Codie Karalta to beat the boys. She has a huge motor but is still as green as grass but if she gets it right will be mighty hard to beat. #5 Semose Twenty looks the logical danger as has been very good at past 2 starts and this is a similar field. #6 Bymarjac has also ran well at past 2 starts but led on each occasion and might find it a tad tougher from this draw. Of the rest, both #1 Hamish Sanz and #2 Safe Prospect chased the fence home to run placings last time and look similar hopes again from their draws and #7 Jonnyace was beautifully driven to save ground and just miss last time but will have to take the long way home this week. #4 Major Ruler was aggressively driven last time and faded and might go better if sat up and is a place chance also. Even #8 Twenty One Grand isn't totally hopeless but the draw makes it tough over the mile trip so will risk him
Ratings 3/5/6/1,2,4,7
Race 2
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 17
2 KARALTA LADY 7
3 BROWN PAIGE 17
4 DENVERS BOY 17
5 GO GO CISCO 51
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER 13
7 CINDYS BABE 26
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
10 ENCHANTED HEART 1.5
Heat 5 of the Youngbloods series for the junior drivers sees the 3yo #10 Enchanted Heart stand out. If you look through his formlines it reads superbly with 2 wins and 3 placings from past 5 and the form has stood up extremely well from those races. The 3yo filly #2 Karalta Lady rates 2nd and it pays to ignore the duck eggs next to her name at past 2 starts as drew 11 against Gedlee and co 2 starts back so had no hope and then was 3 deep the trip in a 1.58.3 rate last time. She drops in class and is sure to get a better trip this time and looks the only hope of causing an upset. The other 3yo in the race in #6 Just Like Thunder is an improving type and despite rising in class is still the 3rd pick. The rest are all place hopes only with #1 Little Miss Madam probably being the leader of the race so must be included and the trio of #3 Brown Paige, #4 Denvers Boy and #7 Cindys Babe all ran very well at Devonport Monday night in weaker races. Would also include #9 Little Bluejeans in exotics as will be following the pegs and might sneak into the first four somewhere
Ratings 10/2/6/1,3,4/7,9
Race 3
1 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 8
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 13
3 PALOONA 15
4 KING ALBERT 15
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 1.5
6 PANS ILLUSION 6
7 WAYNE ROONEY NZ 51
#5 Nobeer Nocheer has grown a leg this season, he goes forward and makes his own luck and even though he may not lead this time is still a clear top pick. He has bolted in at 3 of his past 4 starts after leading and ran time doing it and whilst he did get beaten the last time he didn't lead that was more caused by slow ones getting in his way. #6 Pan Illusion might be his biggest danger as was terribly driven last week in Hobart with the driver looking to leave the back of the leader who was bolting to trail a horse who was struggling and if they overdo it up front he will be the fresh horse late. #1 Murillo Bromac ran a distant 2nd to the fav last time from the same draw so has to go in the placings again. #2 Forty Two Grand is going okay and with the right run will figure in the placings, #3 Paloona just whacks away at the same speed but never far away and #4 King Albert is also a place hope. #7 Wayne Rooney is going about as well lately as his namesake at the World Cup and is outclassed - just ensured the poms will win their last game and Rooney will score!!
Ratings 5/6/1/2/3,4
Race 4
1 HUGH BROMAC 3
2 OUR SIR THOMAS 13
3 AS YOU WISH 26
4 COMMANDER DATA 41
5 IN CRUISE MODE 8
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 11
7 GOOD TO BE HOLME 41
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOADED TO RUN 2.5
10 EL JAYS MAVERICK 17
Look to be 2 standout picks here in #9 Loaded To Run who would be my best bet from any other gate bar inside the 2nd row and #1 Hugh Bromac. They went round in the same race Sunday night with #9 Loaded To Run being the far better run after working in the run and given even luck from this gate will run 2nd at worst. #1 Hugh Bromac returned from a short Victorian trip with an even 3rd last week after having every hope but the barrier draw brings things right into his favour this time as he should lead and his main danger has drawn awkwardly. I will also be including #5 In Cruise Mode in my quaddie as he went enormous last time after breaking so might be the upset horse. One of that trio really should win the race but its worth keeping an eye out (pardon the pun) on #6 An Eye For An Eye who joins the Gary Bishop stable and does have plenty of abilty when right so monitor any betting moves with him. Of the rest, place hopes go to #2 Our Sir Thomas who won a weak race Monday night, #3 As You Wish who had no luck on Monday and #10 El Jays Maverick who is going better than his form suggests
Ratings 9/1/5/6/2,3,10
Race 5
1 THIRSTY MACH 1.7
2 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
3 PRISONBREAK 8
4 SCARLET HEART 101
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 13
6 BUDDY BEAUTY 34
7 THE ACES 51
8 INCHBYINCH 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ELL ESS BABE 4.5
10 WHY TAKE TIME 67
11 TOUCHWOOD AVASTA scr
12 DIEBERCHARGED 51
Look to be a couple of standouts in this race also with the colt #1 Thirsty Mach and the filly #9 Ell Ess Babe looking clear top picks. There is also a decent argument that outside the 2 stars of their respective 3yo class in Gedlee and Maggie Kennedy that they are nearly the best 3yo of their sex in the state and here they are served up in a 3C0 race which probably best sums it up. #1 Thirsty Mach has disappointed at times this season but got a well deserved win last time as his record of 3 wins from 12 starts would look decidedly better if not for consistently running into Gedlee so he simply must go on top as should lead and have no excuses. The filly #9 Ell Ess Babe will probably be right on his back though so if he cops any pressure she will be in the right spot to take advantage so is a clear 2nd pick and #3 Prisonbreak is a standout 3rd pick as is tough and also very close to a win. They definitely should run the trifecta unless there is a war between the 1 and the 3 early but surely common sense will prevail. Outside of them, #5 Legerwood Creek ran a top race last time and is an improver, #6 Buddy Beauty is an honest little bloke who just lacks a bit of dash but will plug home. #8 Inchbyinch led and fell in at Devonport and the draw makes it extremely tough here and #12 Diebercharged does have some ability but manners let him down
Ratings 1/9/3/5/6
Race 6
1 THE MUSICIAN 8
2 FROSTY STUMPJUMPER 41
3 HIGHFLYIN FRED 34
4 KAMWOOD KENNY 8
5 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 21
6 KEEN OPERATOR 7
7 LIGHT THE LANTERN 41
8 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
---------- Second Row ----------
9 PRINCE NIADH 21
10 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
11 MEANDPOP (Em 1)
Hard to rate this race as #8 Lugovoi Leis looks way better than the locals but the Victorian #4 Kamwood Kenny is resuming off some reasonable form and despite the trials being just fair on paper, you have to respect it. #8 Lugovoi Leis is another 3yo taking on the older ones and has a horror gate so wouldn't rush into the shorts but his past few runs have been excellent especially his past 2 coming from off the speed to make ground in closing secrionals of 28.1 and 28.4 respectively. Given even luck he should win but it is a junior drivers race and see some strange tactics adopted on roughies in these races sometimes. #6 Keen Operator has only won 1 of 57 starts but past 2 have been very good and he will keep coming. #1 The Musician has to be driven for luck but if the runs come at the right time is always a hope and #10 Topoftheclouds is always an EW hope in this type of race. As stated previously, its hard to line up #4 apart from watching for any market moves
Ratings 8/1,6/4?/10
Race 7
1 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3.5
2 BUBBAS A FAKE 17
3 KALYPSON KID 6
4 REDSIDE SHREK 7
5 SKY TOWER 9
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 SHEZ RYLEYMAK 4.5
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 26
Keep changing my mind with this race and going to take the field in my quaddie. Just don't like the way the speed map plays out which can make for some strange results. Without a great deal of confidence, I am going to put #6 Yuschanko Leis on top as don't think he has got the credit for how well he is actually going and might be silly odds here and its the type of race you want value in. #7 Shez Ryleymak probably ran the worst race of her life in Melbourne last time but provided she is back to her best is the one to beat here even from the draw. #1 Cosmic Under Fire actually ran last against almost the exact field last time from a bad gate and is likely to get headed off but is going to get the right run and if he gets out will be the horse to beat which shows how hard it is. #3 Kalypson Kid has disappointed at past few in Victoria but must be kept safe at first start down in Tassie. #4 Redside Shrek has returned to something like his best at past couple but I just don't know where he is going to end up in the run. #5 Sky Tower is probably the death seat horse and will keep whatever leads honest as the big fella gets up on the steel and whilst #8 Gettysburgh Address is going to need a ton of luck from the draw he does have a sneaky hope if things fall into place
Ratings 6/1,7/3,4/5
Race 8
1 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 4.5
2 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
3 KING OF BLING 6
4 MAROSSI 21
5 TOPUP 5.5
6 DUART CASTLE scr
7 JONZAAK 9
8 PAUL ALBERT 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
Very good race but almost impossible to assess but should offer good value. #2 Glenwood Jasper was enormous in defeat here last start after being checked early and is the one horse that can make its own luck so have him on top. #1 The Musics Over finally got some overdue luck to salute last time and from the draw will be right in the finish again. #3 King Of Bling has been well driven to run the quinella behind a couple of good ones in both starts since coming to Tassie and his gatespeed may determine the pattern of the race as if he leads and hands up then the pole is in trouble and the ones drawn wide come into play and vica versa. Its just one of those races. I can see the race suiting #5 Topup who is really going well lately and has also been chasing home some smart ones but she has her hoof right on the till. Of the rest, #9 Advance Dundee had a cheap run when beating #2 last time but draws to get that type of run again and #6 Duart Castle is a funny horse as would be a $4 pop if he could find the pegs and a $50 chance if he didn't so have to keep him relatively safe despite doubting he will lead here. #7 Jonzaak is also going extremely well and wouldn't surprise if gets any luck from the draw. The only runner with no hope is #8 Paul Albert
Ratings 2/1,5/3/6,7,9/4
Race 9
1 MONICAS NOTCH 17
2 CLOSE BY 11
3 REAL RESERVE 4.5
4 BALENCIA 3.5
5 DAVPASS 34
6 SANREOS 4.5
7 CURRYNROSES 4
The mares finish up the night and a very hard race to get out if you have to, I thought #7 Currynroses was perfectly driven and didn't go on with it last time but this is easier but still couldn't take short odds, her stablemate #4 Balencia just appears to have lost all her zip at past couple and unless its a slog to the line she gets outsprinted but will probably look the winner at some stage. #3 Real Reserve looks a certain leader and if gets it as easy as it did last time will probably win but surely couldn't get it that easy again. The big query is #6 Sanreos who would beat these on best form but her form tapered off at the end of last campaign and hasn't been seen at the trials recently. One of those 4 should definitely win with both #2 and to a lesser degree #1 a place hope
Ratings 4/3/6,7/2/1
This is a super race meeting for the middle of winter, Launceston always gets better fields than Hobart though for some reason - probably has something to do with the fact a lot of horses are trained in the north of the state and its a 3 hr trek to Hobart whilst most Hobart horses are trained north of the city so its only a 90 minutes drive for them to head up
Tips all races
R1#3 Codie Karalta 1st $4.60
R2#10 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.60
R3#5 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
R4#9 Loaded To Run 1st $3.30
R5#1 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.30
R6#8 Lugovoi Leis 1st $2.40
R7#6 Yuschenko Leis EW 1st $12.80
R8#2 Glenwood Jasper 3rd
R9#4 Balencia 2nd
Race 1
1 HAMISH SANZ 11
2 SAFE PROSPECT 11
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.2
4 MAJOR RULER 13
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.5
6 BYMARJAC 5
7 JOHNNYACE 11
8 TWENTY ONE GRAND 26
Very good race for the babies and tipping the filly #3 Codie Karalta to beat the boys. She has a huge motor but is still as green as grass but if she gets it right will be mighty hard to beat. #5 Semose Twenty looks the logical danger as has been very good at past 2 starts and this is a similar field. #6 Bymarjac has also ran well at past 2 starts but led on each occasion and might find it a tad tougher from this draw. Of the rest, both #1 Hamish Sanz and #2 Safe Prospect chased the fence home to run placings last time and look similar hopes again from their draws and #7 Jonnyace was beautifully driven to save ground and just miss last time but will have to take the long way home this week. #4 Major Ruler was aggressively driven last time and faded and might go better if sat up and is a place chance also. Even #8 Twenty One Grand isn't totally hopeless but the draw makes it tough over the mile trip so will risk him
Ratings 3/5/6/1,2,4,7
Race 2
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 17
2 KARALTA LADY 7
3 BROWN PAIGE 17
4 DENVERS BOY 17
5 GO GO CISCO 51
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER 13
7 CINDYS BABE 26
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
10 ENCHANTED HEART 1.5
Heat 5 of the Youngbloods series for the junior drivers sees the 3yo #10 Enchanted Heart stand out. If you look through his formlines it reads superbly with 2 wins and 3 placings from past 5 and the form has stood up extremely well from those races. The 3yo filly #2 Karalta Lady rates 2nd and it pays to ignore the duck eggs next to her name at past 2 starts as drew 11 against Gedlee and co 2 starts back so had no hope and then was 3 deep the trip in a 1.58.3 rate last time. She drops in class and is sure to get a better trip this time and looks the only hope of causing an upset. The other 3yo in the race in #6 Just Like Thunder is an improving type and despite rising in class is still the 3rd pick. The rest are all place hopes only with #1 Little Miss Madam probably being the leader of the race so must be included and the trio of #3 Brown Paige, #4 Denvers Boy and #7 Cindys Babe all ran very well at Devonport Monday night in weaker races. Would also include #9 Little Bluejeans in exotics as will be following the pegs and might sneak into the first four somewhere
Ratings 10/2/6/1,3,4/7,9
Race 3
1 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 8
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 13
3 PALOONA 15
4 KING ALBERT 15
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 1.5
6 PANS ILLUSION 6
7 WAYNE ROONEY NZ 51
#5 Nobeer Nocheer has grown a leg this season, he goes forward and makes his own luck and even though he may not lead this time is still a clear top pick. He has bolted in at 3 of his past 4 starts after leading and ran time doing it and whilst he did get beaten the last time he didn't lead that was more caused by slow ones getting in his way. #6 Pan Illusion might be his biggest danger as was terribly driven last week in Hobart with the driver looking to leave the back of the leader who was bolting to trail a horse who was struggling and if they overdo it up front he will be the fresh horse late. #1 Murillo Bromac ran a distant 2nd to the fav last time from the same draw so has to go in the placings again. #2 Forty Two Grand is going okay and with the right run will figure in the placings, #3 Paloona just whacks away at the same speed but never far away and #4 King Albert is also a place hope. #7 Wayne Rooney is going about as well lately as his namesake at the World Cup and is outclassed - just ensured the poms will win their last game and Rooney will score!!
Ratings 5/6/1/2/3,4
Race 4
1 HUGH BROMAC 3
2 OUR SIR THOMAS 13
3 AS YOU WISH 26
4 COMMANDER DATA 41
5 IN CRUISE MODE 8
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 11
7 GOOD TO BE HOLME 41
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOADED TO RUN 2.5
10 EL JAYS MAVERICK 17
Look to be 2 standout picks here in #9 Loaded To Run who would be my best bet from any other gate bar inside the 2nd row and #1 Hugh Bromac. They went round in the same race Sunday night with #9 Loaded To Run being the far better run after working in the run and given even luck from this gate will run 2nd at worst. #1 Hugh Bromac returned from a short Victorian trip with an even 3rd last week after having every hope but the barrier draw brings things right into his favour this time as he should lead and his main danger has drawn awkwardly. I will also be including #5 In Cruise Mode in my quaddie as he went enormous last time after breaking so might be the upset horse. One of that trio really should win the race but its worth keeping an eye out (pardon the pun) on #6 An Eye For An Eye who joins the Gary Bishop stable and does have plenty of abilty when right so monitor any betting moves with him. Of the rest, place hopes go to #2 Our Sir Thomas who won a weak race Monday night, #3 As You Wish who had no luck on Monday and #10 El Jays Maverick who is going better than his form suggests
Ratings 9/1/5/6/2,3,10
Race 5
1 THIRSTY MACH 1.7
2 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
3 PRISONBREAK 8
4 SCARLET HEART 101
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 13
6 BUDDY BEAUTY 34
7 THE ACES 51
8 INCHBYINCH 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ELL ESS BABE 4.5
10 WHY TAKE TIME 67
11 TOUCHWOOD AVASTA scr
12 DIEBERCHARGED 51
Look to be a couple of standouts in this race also with the colt #1 Thirsty Mach and the filly #9 Ell Ess Babe looking clear top picks. There is also a decent argument that outside the 2 stars of their respective 3yo class in Gedlee and Maggie Kennedy that they are nearly the best 3yo of their sex in the state and here they are served up in a 3C0 race which probably best sums it up. #1 Thirsty Mach has disappointed at times this season but got a well deserved win last time as his record of 3 wins from 12 starts would look decidedly better if not for consistently running into Gedlee so he simply must go on top as should lead and have no excuses. The filly #9 Ell Ess Babe will probably be right on his back though so if he cops any pressure she will be in the right spot to take advantage so is a clear 2nd pick and #3 Prisonbreak is a standout 3rd pick as is tough and also very close to a win. They definitely should run the trifecta unless there is a war between the 1 and the 3 early but surely common sense will prevail. Outside of them, #5 Legerwood Creek ran a top race last time and is an improver, #6 Buddy Beauty is an honest little bloke who just lacks a bit of dash but will plug home. #8 Inchbyinch led and fell in at Devonport and the draw makes it extremely tough here and #12 Diebercharged does have some ability but manners let him down
Ratings 1/9/3/5/6
Race 6
1 THE MUSICIAN 8
2 FROSTY STUMPJUMPER 41
3 HIGHFLYIN FRED 34
4 KAMWOOD KENNY 8
5 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 21
6 KEEN OPERATOR 7
7 LIGHT THE LANTERN 41
8 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
---------- Second Row ----------
9 PRINCE NIADH 21
10 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
11 MEANDPOP (Em 1)
Hard to rate this race as #8 Lugovoi Leis looks way better than the locals but the Victorian #4 Kamwood Kenny is resuming off some reasonable form and despite the trials being just fair on paper, you have to respect it. #8 Lugovoi Leis is another 3yo taking on the older ones and has a horror gate so wouldn't rush into the shorts but his past few runs have been excellent especially his past 2 coming from off the speed to make ground in closing secrionals of 28.1 and 28.4 respectively. Given even luck he should win but it is a junior drivers race and see some strange tactics adopted on roughies in these races sometimes. #6 Keen Operator has only won 1 of 57 starts but past 2 have been very good and he will keep coming. #1 The Musician has to be driven for luck but if the runs come at the right time is always a hope and #10 Topoftheclouds is always an EW hope in this type of race. As stated previously, its hard to line up #4 apart from watching for any market moves
Ratings 8/1,6/4?/10
Race 7
1 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3.5
2 BUBBAS A FAKE 17
3 KALYPSON KID 6
4 REDSIDE SHREK 7
5 SKY TOWER 9
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 SHEZ RYLEYMAK 4.5
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 26
Keep changing my mind with this race and going to take the field in my quaddie. Just don't like the way the speed map plays out which can make for some strange results. Without a great deal of confidence, I am going to put #6 Yuschanko Leis on top as don't think he has got the credit for how well he is actually going and might be silly odds here and its the type of race you want value in. #7 Shez Ryleymak probably ran the worst race of her life in Melbourne last time but provided she is back to her best is the one to beat here even from the draw. #1 Cosmic Under Fire actually ran last against almost the exact field last time from a bad gate and is likely to get headed off but is going to get the right run and if he gets out will be the horse to beat which shows how hard it is. #3 Kalypson Kid has disappointed at past few in Victoria but must be kept safe at first start down in Tassie. #4 Redside Shrek has returned to something like his best at past couple but I just don't know where he is going to end up in the run. #5 Sky Tower is probably the death seat horse and will keep whatever leads honest as the big fella gets up on the steel and whilst #8 Gettysburgh Address is going to need a ton of luck from the draw he does have a sneaky hope if things fall into place
Ratings 6/1,7/3,4/5
Race 8
1 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 4.5
2 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
3 KING OF BLING 6
4 MAROSSI 21
5 TOPUP 5.5
6 DUART CASTLE scr
7 JONZAAK 9
8 PAUL ALBERT 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
Very good race but almost impossible to assess but should offer good value. #2 Glenwood Jasper was enormous in defeat here last start after being checked early and is the one horse that can make its own luck so have him on top. #1 The Musics Over finally got some overdue luck to salute last time and from the draw will be right in the finish again. #3 King Of Bling has been well driven to run the quinella behind a couple of good ones in both starts since coming to Tassie and his gatespeed may determine the pattern of the race as if he leads and hands up then the pole is in trouble and the ones drawn wide come into play and vica versa. Its just one of those races. I can see the race suiting #5 Topup who is really going well lately and has also been chasing home some smart ones but she has her hoof right on the till. Of the rest, #9 Advance Dundee had a cheap run when beating #2 last time but draws to get that type of run again and #6 Duart Castle is a funny horse as would be a $4 pop if he could find the pegs and a $50 chance if he didn't so have to keep him relatively safe despite doubting he will lead here. #7 Jonzaak is also going extremely well and wouldn't surprise if gets any luck from the draw. The only runner with no hope is #8 Paul Albert
Ratings 2/1,5/3/6,7,9/4
Race 9
1 MONICAS NOTCH 17
2 CLOSE BY 11
3 REAL RESERVE 4.5
4 BALENCIA 3.5
5 DAVPASS 34
6 SANREOS 4.5
7 CURRYNROSES 4
The mares finish up the night and a very hard race to get out if you have to, I thought #7 Currynroses was perfectly driven and didn't go on with it last time but this is easier but still couldn't take short odds, her stablemate #4 Balencia just appears to have lost all her zip at past couple and unless its a slog to the line she gets outsprinted but will probably look the winner at some stage. #3 Real Reserve looks a certain leader and if gets it as easy as it did last time will probably win but surely couldn't get it that easy again. The big query is #6 Sanreos who would beat these on best form but her form tapered off at the end of last campaign and hasn't been seen at the trials recently. One of those 4 should definitely win with both #2 and to a lesser degree #1 a place hope
Ratings 4/3/6,7/2/1
Monday, June 21, 2010
Devonport Delay
I'm pulling the pin for the night, these delays are annoying me, plus I don't like much later on anyway
Already had something on Prettyboytoby in race 4 but not much
I either have race 3 extremely wrong or could get a result. Really cannot see anything outside of 1,9,10,11 running the first four (maybe #3 could sneak in there with a very soft run somehow) so boxing them for something in addition to a few other bets
I know that with the scratchings that the pole is going to get an extremely soft lead and it is a sprint race but geez its short enough as definitely not the best horse in the race but either was Inchbyinch in race 1 so maybe there is method in the madness
Already had something on Prettyboytoby in race 4 but not much
I either have race 3 extremely wrong or could get a result. Really cannot see anything outside of 1,9,10,11 running the first four (maybe #3 could sneak in there with a very soft run somehow) so boxing them for something in addition to a few other bets
I know that with the scratchings that the pole is going to get an extremely soft lead and it is a sprint race but geez its short enough as definitely not the best horse in the race but either was Inchbyinch in race 1 so maybe there is method in the madness
Tips for Tonight at Devonport
As for Devonport tonight I will be very quiet. Its one of those tracks where you have bad horses starting at silly prices purely because of barrier and not ability
My best 3 would be
R1#1 Inchbyinch 1st $3.90
R2#2 Bajardo River 1st $3.10
R4#4 Prettyboytoby EW 3rd $2.0
All race selections
R1#1 Inchbyinch 1st $3.90
R2#2 Bajardo River 1st $3.10
R3#9 Klebnikova Leis UNP
R4#4 Prettyboytoby 3rd
R5#7 Waterloo Bay 2nd
R6#9 Crash Cart UNP
R7#1 Topoftheclouds 1st $2.20
R8#1 Duart Castle 1st $3.0
Full meeting preview in following post
My best 3 would be
R1#1 Inchbyinch 1st $3.90
R2#2 Bajardo River 1st $3.10
R4#4 Prettyboytoby EW 3rd $2.0
All race selections
R1#1 Inchbyinch 1st $3.90
R2#2 Bajardo River 1st $3.10
R3#9 Klebnikova Leis UNP
R4#4 Prettyboytoby 3rd
R5#7 Waterloo Bay 2nd
R6#9 Crash Cart UNP
R7#1 Topoftheclouds 1st $2.20
R8#1 Duart Castle 1st $3.0
Full meeting preview in following post
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Devonport odds and ratings - Monday Night June 21
Race 1
1 Inchbyinch (C) B J Withers 2.3
2 Sheez Exquisite (C) T E Rattray 11
3 No Time To Dream (C) A L Crossland 17
4 Surprise Purchase N B Ford 8
5 Scarlet Heart B E Wise 26
6 Hot Rock Express (C) M M Maine scr
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7 Next Sound B A Gebel 4.5
8 Celtic Legend (C) J W Johnson 11
9 Spirited Ruler D G Medhurst 34
10 Rubys Life (C) J C Howlett 11
Another heat of the Youngbloods for the junior drivers and my top pick is #1 Inchbyinch who was smashed in front last time (first 2 qtrs 28.6, 29.7) and tired and this race looks more his go. He looks the leader, the 1930m trip suits and Devonport is that leader biased it isn't funny. Shouldn't be any excuses anyway. There is some speed outside him actually with #4 Surprise Purchase looking the main danger of getting over (doubt he will) but if he did would be right in the mix. If the pole leads it brings #7 Next Sound right into play as should be trailing him and for that reason they are the 2 I will be betting around (might even throw #2 into exotics in case it jumps in behind the pole early). Nearly every other runner in the field is going okay but the draw has made it very difficult for most of them around this tight circuit
Ratings 1/7/2,4,8,10/3,6
Race 2
1 Rojen Alicastreos (C) V Burke 34
2 Bajardo River K W Toulmin 2.8
3 Mighty Myf D G Medhurst 21
4 Brown Paige G W Madden 4
5 Dream Of The West J H Walters 8
6 Masterama S J Ford 21
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7 Dolly Girl (C) J W Johnson 15
8 Mistover Fizz R J Hadley 8
9 Top Premier S B Ford 34
10 Little Bluejeans (1st Em) scr
11 Denvers Boy (C) T E Rattray 8
#2 Bajardo River was going to be my best bet of the night but was made an ODM horse last Wednesday night so now starts outside the front which changes things a lot. I still have him on top as reckon he is still a chance of leading but with the change in barriers has gone from a certain leader to a maybe find the front so not as confident anymore. #4 Brown Paige has been racing in the same races at past few starts as the 2 and hasn't enjoyed the best of luck so is a definite danger. #5 Dream Of The West is very one paced but if it found the front could take running down and both #8 Mistover Fizz and #11 Denvers Boy have claims but their draws make it tough. Also respect #10 Little Bluejeans if it gains a start. #7 Dolly Girl is very well bred from the same maternal line as the great producer New Arrival but trials have been very ordinary so watch betting. #6 Masterama had decent form in Victoria but its 2 Tasmanian runs have been abysmal.
Ratings 2/4/5,8,11
Race 3
1 Dawn Ofa Niadh (C) J W Johnson 3.5
2 Seascape Artiste G W Rattray scr
3 Tisu Holly (C) M M Maine 15
4 Azarenka Leis S M Barnes 21
5 Angel Liz T J Maine 26
6 Binabelle N B Ford scr
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7 Cheryl Mary R L Hillier scr
8 Kristins Niadh J H Walters 26
9 Klebnikova Leis (C) D W Dornauf 3.5
10 Imperial Majesty R L Ashwood 7
11 Stone Skipper S B Ford 4.5
A very good race this for the 2yo fillies with #9 Klebnikova Leis being my top pick. Can see her being the first one around the field and controlling the race from the chair. #11 Stone Skipper has a ton of speed but will need all the favours from the draw but still the main danger. #10 Imperial Majesty has had no luck at all recently and if she gets some here might be the blowout. #1 Dawn Ofa Niadh looks a certain leader and does have ability so has to be a chance around Devonport on that point alone. Those four clearly rate ahead of the other raced horses but there has to be a watch on #6 Binabelle who is from a good producing family and only trialled fairly but nearly every foal from the dam has been a good juvenile so watch betting with her
Ratings 9/1,11/10/6
Race 4
1 Close By G W Rattray 15
2 Toppa Karalta S J Ford 5.5
3 Oscars Ace N B Ford 15
4 Prettyboytoby (C) M M Maine 6.5
5 Prince Niadh (C) J W Johnson 5.5
6 Frosty Stumpjumper S B Ford 13
-----------------------------------------
7 Our Sir Thomas R J Hadley 7
8 Moira Kite D G Medhurst 26
9 As You Wish (C cl) J C Howlett 5
10 Light The Lantern (C) B K Parker 21
There is a ton of gatespeed in this race with #s 1,2 and 5 all with good speed and for that reason I don't like the race at all and will be opting for a swooper to come over the top at a bit of value. #4 Prettyboytoby fits that bill and just needs a touch of luck to find a spot early and will be the fresh horse late. #9 As You Wish is also going well and is another who would relish a hectic early speed. Reckon that #2 Toppa Karalta will cross the pole and keep out #5 Prince Niadh so is best of the leaders but don't hold me to that as #5 flies early and if he led would become the one to beat. #7 Our Sir Thomas was dreadful last time but draws to get the type of run he loves. Its just about a field job though and you know the rules - when it looks like a hot speed they walk and vica versa
Ratings 4/9/2,5,7/field
Race 5
1 The Cherokee Chief J H Walters 9
2 No News At Seven G W Rattray 21
3 Laser Mountain H F Szczypka 21
4 Prince Of Tara A C Duggan 6
5 Rowella Knight M Yole 17
6 Nibebo S J Ford 26
7 Waterloo Bay N B Ford 2.2
8 Wayne Rooney (C) M M Maine 15
9 Costa Smeralda (C) T E Rattray 5
Stand start for the claimers and don't bet in them as a rule and won't be changing my tune here. #7 Waterloo Bay just keeps getting served up at juicy odds and winning easily but its got to the stage where I can't jump on now but based on past few runs he simply has to win as meets the same field. #9 Costa Smerelda is getting very close to a win and will be in the finish and #4 Prince Of Tara isn't going as well as he was but looks the probable leader so have to include in the chances. You can take your pick with the rest of them as nothing going at all well amongst them but #1 The Cherokee Chief might be an improver.
Ratings 7/9/4/1/field
Race 6
1 Bornfirst S M Barnes 4
2 Wholelotasound (C cl) J C Howlett 5.5
3 Cindys Babe M D Castles 8
4 Monicas Notch L A Dornauf 13
5 Cranleigh Lass (C) J W Johnson 17
6 Rocky Creek Scratched scr
----------------------------------------
7 We Wont Go There S B Ford 4.5
8 Most Happy Jasper Scratched scr
9 Crash Cart H F Szczypka 3.8
10 Touchwood Fortune J H Willett 34
What a trainwreck this race is and to be honest none of them have the form to ever select on top but one of them will crack it here. #9 Crash Cart definitely has more ability than any other runner in the race but can mess it up at times so hard to back at shortish odds but still must go on top. #1 Bornfirst looks the leader and totally forget last run when they went mad early so might be the safe EW bet if you want to invest on the race. #7 We Wont Go There has been going okay and looks likely to get a good trip here, #2 Wholelotasound looks the only other winning hope but he does go best in front and doubt he can cross the pole but is as good as any of them ability wise. Of the rest, #3 Cindys Babe is still very green but not hopeless and #4 Monicas Notch won a similar race 3 starts back. #5 Cranleigh Lass isn;t totally hopeless and might sneak a place but can't have #10 Touchwood Fortune at all
Ratings 9/1/7/2/3,4/5
Race 7
1 Topotheclouds (C) J W Johnson 4
2 Pop Billy B A Gebel 34
3 Trooper Jack (C) J C Howlett 7
4 Unrivalled D G Medhurst 13
5 Good To Be Holme (C) T E Rattray 17
6 Commander Data (C) B J Withers 21
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7 Harley Classic N B Ford 4
8 Boozy Rouge (C) A L Crossland 7
9 November Twenty B E Wise 11
10 Bad Boy Vinny (C) M M Maine 11
Hard race to assess this, originally liked #1 Topoftheclouds but worried on a couple of fronts now - he has always gone better with a sit and will probably get attacked by #6 Commander Data early who is a bit of a pest actually when it draws the front. #7 Harley Classic was flying prior to a spell and resumes here and draws to follow the pole everywhere. #8 Boozy Rouge is mixing his form but well up to this at his best and #3 Trooper Jack won a weak race in emphatic style last time so is a chance again. #9 November Twenty is going okay but tends to race best when drawn to lead and both #4 Unrivalled and #10 Bad Boy Vinny are sit/sprint types who can always cause an upset if the breaks come their way. I backed #5 Good To Be Holme last time and fell in after a perfect run and this looks much harder
Ratings 1/7/3/8/4,9,10
Race 8
1 Duart Castle M Yole 2.5
2 Jonzaak R J Hadley 4
3 Paloona (C cl) B K Parker 21
4 King Albert (C cl) M M Maine 8.5
5 Grand Brook (C cl) D W Dornauf 17
6 Berezovsky Leis W G Dornauf scr
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7 Sweeten The Pot S B Ford 3.2
Clearly the best race of the night and it is the last on the card for the 2nd night in a row (they seriously need to look at the programming). #1 Duart Castle simply grows a leg when he leads and is a totally different horse as opposed to when he cannot and looks certain to hold the front here. #7 Sweeten The Pot will be trailing him and is probably a better horse but will need the gap to come in time. #2 Jonzaak actually started near favourite in the race Duart Castle won at big odds last time so is a definite chance as had no chance that race was run. One of that trio should definitely win with #4 King Albert the next best but all runners do go okay so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 1/7/2/4/field
1 Inchbyinch (C) B J Withers 2.3
2 Sheez Exquisite (C) T E Rattray 11
3 No Time To Dream (C) A L Crossland 17
4 Surprise Purchase N B Ford 8
5 Scarlet Heart B E Wise 26
6 Hot Rock Express (C) M M Maine scr
-------------------------------------------
7 Next Sound B A Gebel 4.5
8 Celtic Legend (C) J W Johnson 11
9 Spirited Ruler D G Medhurst 34
10 Rubys Life (C) J C Howlett 11
Another heat of the Youngbloods for the junior drivers and my top pick is #1 Inchbyinch who was smashed in front last time (first 2 qtrs 28.6, 29.7) and tired and this race looks more his go. He looks the leader, the 1930m trip suits and Devonport is that leader biased it isn't funny. Shouldn't be any excuses anyway. There is some speed outside him actually with #4 Surprise Purchase looking the main danger of getting over (doubt he will) but if he did would be right in the mix. If the pole leads it brings #7 Next Sound right into play as should be trailing him and for that reason they are the 2 I will be betting around (might even throw #2 into exotics in case it jumps in behind the pole early). Nearly every other runner in the field is going okay but the draw has made it very difficult for most of them around this tight circuit
Ratings 1/7/2,4,8,10/3,6
Race 2
1 Rojen Alicastreos (C) V Burke 34
2 Bajardo River K W Toulmin 2.8
3 Mighty Myf D G Medhurst 21
4 Brown Paige G W Madden 4
5 Dream Of The West J H Walters 8
6 Masterama S J Ford 21
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7 Dolly Girl (C) J W Johnson 15
8 Mistover Fizz R J Hadley 8
9 Top Premier S B Ford 34
10 Little Bluejeans (1st Em) scr
11 Denvers Boy (C) T E Rattray 8
#2 Bajardo River was going to be my best bet of the night but was made an ODM horse last Wednesday night so now starts outside the front which changes things a lot. I still have him on top as reckon he is still a chance of leading but with the change in barriers has gone from a certain leader to a maybe find the front so not as confident anymore. #4 Brown Paige has been racing in the same races at past few starts as the 2 and hasn't enjoyed the best of luck so is a definite danger. #5 Dream Of The West is very one paced but if it found the front could take running down and both #8 Mistover Fizz and #11 Denvers Boy have claims but their draws make it tough. Also respect #10 Little Bluejeans if it gains a start. #7 Dolly Girl is very well bred from the same maternal line as the great producer New Arrival but trials have been very ordinary so watch betting. #6 Masterama had decent form in Victoria but its 2 Tasmanian runs have been abysmal.
Ratings 2/4/5,8,11
Race 3
1 Dawn Ofa Niadh (C) J W Johnson 3.5
2 Seascape Artiste G W Rattray scr
3 Tisu Holly (C) M M Maine 15
4 Azarenka Leis S M Barnes 21
5 Angel Liz T J Maine 26
6 Binabelle N B Ford scr
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7 Cheryl Mary R L Hillier scr
8 Kristins Niadh J H Walters 26
9 Klebnikova Leis (C) D W Dornauf 3.5
10 Imperial Majesty R L Ashwood 7
11 Stone Skipper S B Ford 4.5
A very good race this for the 2yo fillies with #9 Klebnikova Leis being my top pick. Can see her being the first one around the field and controlling the race from the chair. #11 Stone Skipper has a ton of speed but will need all the favours from the draw but still the main danger. #10 Imperial Majesty has had no luck at all recently and if she gets some here might be the blowout. #1 Dawn Ofa Niadh looks a certain leader and does have ability so has to be a chance around Devonport on that point alone. Those four clearly rate ahead of the other raced horses but there has to be a watch on #6 Binabelle who is from a good producing family and only trialled fairly but nearly every foal from the dam has been a good juvenile so watch betting with her
Ratings 9/1,11/10/6
Race 4
1 Close By G W Rattray 15
2 Toppa Karalta S J Ford 5.5
3 Oscars Ace N B Ford 15
4 Prettyboytoby (C) M M Maine 6.5
5 Prince Niadh (C) J W Johnson 5.5
6 Frosty Stumpjumper S B Ford 13
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7 Our Sir Thomas R J Hadley 7
8 Moira Kite D G Medhurst 26
9 As You Wish (C cl) J C Howlett 5
10 Light The Lantern (C) B K Parker 21
There is a ton of gatespeed in this race with #s 1,2 and 5 all with good speed and for that reason I don't like the race at all and will be opting for a swooper to come over the top at a bit of value. #4 Prettyboytoby fits that bill and just needs a touch of luck to find a spot early and will be the fresh horse late. #9 As You Wish is also going well and is another who would relish a hectic early speed. Reckon that #2 Toppa Karalta will cross the pole and keep out #5 Prince Niadh so is best of the leaders but don't hold me to that as #5 flies early and if he led would become the one to beat. #7 Our Sir Thomas was dreadful last time but draws to get the type of run he loves. Its just about a field job though and you know the rules - when it looks like a hot speed they walk and vica versa
Ratings 4/9/2,5,7/field
Race 5
1 The Cherokee Chief J H Walters 9
2 No News At Seven G W Rattray 21
3 Laser Mountain H F Szczypka 21
4 Prince Of Tara A C Duggan 6
5 Rowella Knight M Yole 17
6 Nibebo S J Ford 26
7 Waterloo Bay N B Ford 2.2
8 Wayne Rooney (C) M M Maine 15
9 Costa Smeralda (C) T E Rattray 5
Stand start for the claimers and don't bet in them as a rule and won't be changing my tune here. #7 Waterloo Bay just keeps getting served up at juicy odds and winning easily but its got to the stage where I can't jump on now but based on past few runs he simply has to win as meets the same field. #9 Costa Smerelda is getting very close to a win and will be in the finish and #4 Prince Of Tara isn't going as well as he was but looks the probable leader so have to include in the chances. You can take your pick with the rest of them as nothing going at all well amongst them but #1 The Cherokee Chief might be an improver.
Ratings 7/9/4/1/field
Race 6
1 Bornfirst S M Barnes 4
2 Wholelotasound (C cl) J C Howlett 5.5
3 Cindys Babe M D Castles 8
4 Monicas Notch L A Dornauf 13
5 Cranleigh Lass (C) J W Johnson 17
6 Rocky Creek Scratched scr
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7 We Wont Go There S B Ford 4.5
8 Most Happy Jasper Scratched scr
9 Crash Cart H F Szczypka 3.8
10 Touchwood Fortune J H Willett 34
What a trainwreck this race is and to be honest none of them have the form to ever select on top but one of them will crack it here. #9 Crash Cart definitely has more ability than any other runner in the race but can mess it up at times so hard to back at shortish odds but still must go on top. #1 Bornfirst looks the leader and totally forget last run when they went mad early so might be the safe EW bet if you want to invest on the race. #7 We Wont Go There has been going okay and looks likely to get a good trip here, #2 Wholelotasound looks the only other winning hope but he does go best in front and doubt he can cross the pole but is as good as any of them ability wise. Of the rest, #3 Cindys Babe is still very green but not hopeless and #4 Monicas Notch won a similar race 3 starts back. #5 Cranleigh Lass isn;t totally hopeless and might sneak a place but can't have #10 Touchwood Fortune at all
Ratings 9/1/7/2/3,4/5
Race 7
1 Topotheclouds (C) J W Johnson 4
2 Pop Billy B A Gebel 34
3 Trooper Jack (C) J C Howlett 7
4 Unrivalled D G Medhurst 13
5 Good To Be Holme (C) T E Rattray 17
6 Commander Data (C) B J Withers 21
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7 Harley Classic N B Ford 4
8 Boozy Rouge (C) A L Crossland 7
9 November Twenty B E Wise 11
10 Bad Boy Vinny (C) M M Maine 11
Hard race to assess this, originally liked #1 Topoftheclouds but worried on a couple of fronts now - he has always gone better with a sit and will probably get attacked by #6 Commander Data early who is a bit of a pest actually when it draws the front. #7 Harley Classic was flying prior to a spell and resumes here and draws to follow the pole everywhere. #8 Boozy Rouge is mixing his form but well up to this at his best and #3 Trooper Jack won a weak race in emphatic style last time so is a chance again. #9 November Twenty is going okay but tends to race best when drawn to lead and both #4 Unrivalled and #10 Bad Boy Vinny are sit/sprint types who can always cause an upset if the breaks come their way. I backed #5 Good To Be Holme last time and fell in after a perfect run and this looks much harder
Ratings 1/7/3/8/4,9,10
Race 8
1 Duart Castle M Yole 2.5
2 Jonzaak R J Hadley 4
3 Paloona (C cl) B K Parker 21
4 King Albert (C cl) M M Maine 8.5
5 Grand Brook (C cl) D W Dornauf 17
6 Berezovsky Leis W G Dornauf scr
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7 Sweeten The Pot S B Ford 3.2
Clearly the best race of the night and it is the last on the card for the 2nd night in a row (they seriously need to look at the programming). #1 Duart Castle simply grows a leg when he leads and is a totally different horse as opposed to when he cannot and looks certain to hold the front here. #7 Sweeten The Pot will be trailing him and is probably a better horse but will need the gap to come in time. #2 Jonzaak actually started near favourite in the race Duart Castle won at big odds last time so is a definite chance as had no chance that race was run. One of that trio should definitely win with #4 King Albert the next best but all runners do go okay so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 1/7/2/4/field
Another top night in Tassie
Best Bet gets up @ $2.40 (all up on races 1,9 paying $1.6, 1.5)
Lay of the night UNP - was better odds than expected at around $5 so didn't play that actually
Biggest overlay of the night wins @ $7.40 (Flight To Mikinos, rated it $3.50 fav and smashed em)
Missed last leg of the Quaddie but as I was winning I just threw a tenner on the 3 horses I gave a chance to that I didn't have running to ensure I collected something and winner paid $45 so was better than most of the quaddie results in the end
Also had 9 of the 10 winners in my top 3 rated in each race so great for dutch playing
Race 2 was odd to watch as the winner Ronnie Rat is out of the mare Bar Ron who is a sister to both the 2nd and 3rd placegetters in Alby Albert and Alla Breve so the trifecta was run by blood relatives (no inbred Tassie jokes please :)). Also tipped the winner at $8.30
By the way, my 2 Victorian tips tonight ran 2nd and 1st in their respective races and both ran the quinella with the fav so got a bit out of that as well.
Seriously contemplating not betting on Friday nights at all, looking through my results spreadsheet Melton has been a disaster and Sundays are a motza
Lay of the night UNP - was better odds than expected at around $5 so didn't play that actually
Biggest overlay of the night wins @ $7.40 (Flight To Mikinos, rated it $3.50 fav and smashed em)
Missed last leg of the Quaddie but as I was winning I just threw a tenner on the 3 horses I gave a chance to that I didn't have running to ensure I collected something and winner paid $45 so was better than most of the quaddie results in the end
Also had 9 of the 10 winners in my top 3 rated in each race so great for dutch playing
Race 2 was odd to watch as the winner Ronnie Rat is out of the mare Bar Ron who is a sister to both the 2nd and 3rd placegetters in Alby Albert and Alla Breve so the trifecta was run by blood relatives (no inbred Tassie jokes please :)). Also tipped the winner at $8.30
By the way, my 2 Victorian tips tonight ran 2nd and 1st in their respective races and both ran the quinella with the fav so got a bit out of that as well.
Seriously contemplating not betting on Friday nights at all, looking through my results spreadsheet Melton has been a disaster and Sundays are a motza
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Hobart odds and ratings - Sunday June 20
Quaddies (if spending $100)
4/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/1,4 for $1 cost $32
3/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/1,4 for 50c cost $16
4/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/2,7,9,10,11 flexi cost $35
3/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/2,7,9,10,11 flexi cost $17
Tips all races
R1#5 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.60
R2#3 Ronnie Rat EW 1st $8.30
R3#6 Levina Leis 3rd
R4#3 Topup EW 2nd
R5#4 Flight To Mikinos 1st $7.40
R6#7 Sing And Dance 2nd
R7#4 Ombre Operateur UNP
R8#1 Bro Town 3rd
R9#6 Bettor Draw 1st $1.50
R10#2 Hugh Bromac 3rd
Have no specials, if want to have a crack at one around even money take the all up races 1,9 (Thirsty Mach, Bettor Draw) 1st $2.40
Best Lay - R4#2 For My Mum Maggie, just have a query on him when he cops pressure. If he leads tonight the fav will hammer him, if he hands up he can't beat it anyway and if he manages to lead and fight off Cullens Angel there are 2 very good sit/sprinters who will have last crack at him. Has also won past 2 starts and has Gareth Rattray driving so will be supported UNP at around $5 mark
Race 1
1 Willie Winalot (C) J C Howlett 11
2 Dundees Knife D G Medhurst 17
3 Our Desperate Boy (C) B J Withers 41
4 Buddy Beauty (C) T E Rattray 9
5 Thirsty Mach (C) A L Crossland 1.6
6 Glenfern Cruiser N B Ford 15
7 Saab Quality B E Wise 8
8 Its A Hoot (C) M M Maine 8
First heat of the Youngbloods challenge for the junior drivers and its time for #5 Thirsty Mach to stand up here, has always had a big wrap on him and hasn't produced anything substantial as yet. There are no Gedlees to chase in this race so really gets his chance. If they drive him as if he is the best horse in the race he should win. #8 Its A Hoot has really improved of late and being the sole runner on the 2nd row he should get a decent run through early and be in the finish. #7 Saab Quality seems to produce his best when he leads and doubt he can here but still in the mix and #4 Buddy Beauty might be the leader and is an honest little bloke. #1 Willie Winalot rises in class and is a place hope only, #2 Dundees Knife hasn't been too far away but would have to improve panels to win and #6 Glenfern Cruiser does have more abilty than numerical form suggests so include in multiples. #3 Our Desperate Boy looks outclassed
Ratings 5/4,7,8/1,6/2
Race 2
1 Alla Breve G W Rattray 3
2 Pans Illusion N B Ford 5
3 Ronnie Rat M Yole 5
4 Alby Albert R L Hillier 6
5 Ulos S B Ford 8
6 Winjammer C D Salter 6
Impossible race to assess as evidenced by the market with an extremely even field from behind the tapes and its simply a case of which horse gets the right run. #1 Alla Breve is going very well of late but best form has been over shorter trips but if he steps in front these small field stands are usually slowly run so will get his chance. His half brother Alby Albert has been luckless at both runs back in Tassie and could figure with the right run. To keep the family thing going, #3 Ronnie Rat is actually a nephew to both Alla Breve and Alby Albert and is the proven stand horse in lesser grades but is a chance on that score alone. #2 Pans Illusion trialled well recently and can't be ruled out. #6 Winjammer went just as well as Alla Breve last time so cannot leave him out and #5 Ulos is very honest. In other words, I have no idea - sorry! Can probably make some Tasmanian jokes about the in-breeding though!
Ratings 1/2,3/4,6/5
Race 3
1 Mountain Momma N J Emery 26
2 Deejay Bromac K R Austin 34
3 In A Heartbeat W W Rainbird 51
4 Merlin Of Camelot N B Ford 6
5 Broughton R L Duggan 17
6 Levina Leis G W Rattray 1.5
7 Strategic Miss J K Austin scr
8 Call Me James A C Duggan 5.5
Always loathe to declare a 3yo filly taking on older horses as believe they always represent poor value but #6 Levina Leis just looks too good here after taking on the 3yo filly classics recently. The only possible dangers appear to be #8 Count Of James who ran very well at first start in 3 years last time and #4 Merlin Of Camelot whose form is ordinary but has trialled okay for its return to racing. A very thin race and outside of them #5 Broughton appears the only other chance
Ratings 6/4,8/5
Race 4
1 Paul Albert P D Mascall 26
2 For My Mum Maggie G W Rattray 4.5
3 Topup T M Madden 4.5
4 Cullens Angel N B Ford 1.8
5 Bubbas A Fake Scratched scr
6 Secret Rendezvous S B Ford 7
Small field but a very interesting race. If #4 Cullens Angel could find the front it would be game over but I have #2 For My Mum Maggie keeping the front and posting the fav which opens the race up. Still have #4 Cullens Angel on top but only just from #3 Topup who has ran home well in quick time at past 2 and just might get the right run here. I still have doubts on #2 For My Mum Maggie if it cops pressure but still right in the mix and the claimer #6 Secret Rendezvous is low flying at present and if they overdo it up front might be the blowout. #1 Paul Albert won a stand at $66 last time where they ran home in 62 so not a factor here
Ratings 4/3/2/6
Race 5
1 Guerrero G W Rattray 4.5
2 Lomandra J K Austin 26
3 Ontick R L Duggan 4.5
4 Flight To Mikinos M Yole 3.5
5 Touchwood Bucksta D G Medhurst 34
6 King For A Day (C) A Ashwood 15
7 Twograndahand R J Hadley 15
8 Flying Dubai B C Pursell 13
9 Our Sir Lew P R Williams 5
Look to be 4 clear cut chances here but all have some queries about them. #4 Flight To Mikinos was extremely disappointing midweek and whilst the drive left a bit to be desired it still should have done more. I can see him pressing forward here though and finding the front and he always loved that role in Victoria so have him on top. #3 Ontick looked very unlucky last time but had been disappointing prior so would he have let down if the run came we will never know but would win this on best form. #1 Guerrero gets the draw to show his best form and Gareth jumps on which is a huge plus and he can find gatespeed in horses that others cannot so it wouldn't be a huge shock if he led. #9 Our Sir Lew has won his past two starts very well but there is one important change here - the trainer is driving it instead of Nat which is a huge minus and for that reason alone is only my 4th pick. Those four rate clearly in front of the rest with #6 King For A Day, #7 Twograndahand and #8 Flying Dubai all place hopes
Ratings 4/1,3/9/6,7,8
Race 6
1 Tzu Tzu Petals M Yole 9
2 Isadeni Scratched scr
3 Thirtysixtoes S B Ford 3.8
4 Auntyliz N J Emery 8
5 Touchwood Avasta D G Medhurst 41
6 Away Dreaming R L Duggan 26
7 Sing And Dance N B Ford 4
8 Safina Leis G W Rattray 4.5
9 Why Take Time K E MacLeod 26
10 Be Good Jenna A C Duggan 17
11 El Jays Modeena Scratched scr
12 Blackportnlace P R Williams 34
#3 Thirtysixtoes was extremely disappointing last time but draws to lead here and if it repeats its performance against the boys 2 starts back should win. Would have #7 Sing And Dance on top from a decent gate as she waltzed in first up but had all the favours that day and will find it tougher from out in 7. #8 Safina Leis is very inconsistent on paper but when you look at her form she goes very well for Gareth and not for dad and Gareth jumps on here and with any luck from inside the 2nd row draw will be right in it. #4 Auntyliz was backed as if unbeatable at first start and didn't do a thing but must be showing something to justify that support so has to be respected. Of the rest, #1 Tzu Tzu Petals is no star but is honest and a good place prospect from the draw. #6 Away Dreaming is having first Tassie start and would need to improve on only Victorian run and #10 Be Good Jenna had good form early in the year but past few have been mediocre at best
atings 3/7,8/4/1
Race 7
1 Cullens Count (C cl) P D Mascall 6
2 Liskens Gift J K Austin 11
3 Bad Boy Bert M Yole 51
4 Ombre Operateur A C Duggan 3.5
5 Sweetchillifilly G W Rattray 13
6 Touchwood Teeksta D G Medhurst 17
7 Pearls From Heaven R L Duggan 8
8 Paradigm Girl J K Campbell 21
9 The Bullionaire (C cl) M M Maine 13
10 Ashinaga (C) T E Rattray 15
11 Ark West C D Salter 15
12 Bertils Rocket R J Hadley 17
13 Jack Leslie (1st Em) N B Ford
This race is nearly impossible to sort out with the ex Victorian #4 Ombre Operateur definitely holding the key as the rest are that even it isn't funny. He has chased home some handy ones in Victoria in quick sectionals so have put him on top sight unseen but if he is supported he will probably win as no stars in the race. #1 Cullens Count appeared to have his chance last time but this is no harder and looks the leader again so will be around the mark somewhere. #7 Pearls From Heaven needs things to go her way which will be tough from this draw but is better than most of them so you have to respect her. Outside of #3 Bad Boy Bert every runner has some hope
Ratings 4/1/2,7,9,10,11/5,6,12
Race 8 -
1 Bro Town G W Rattray 1.5
2 Girls In Pink D G Medhurst 26
3 Maracas Bay N B Ford 26
4 Woodland Chapel R J Hadley 11
5 Gunbower Jack K R Austin 34
6 Wizard Jones M Yole 3.5
7 Go Go Cisco K W Bourne 34
8 Charlie Grattan P R Williams 26
Very, very poor race and #1 Bro Town looks the winner despite being first up mainly due to lack of opposition. Wouldn't be rushing in to silly odds but simply cannot bet against it and being first up you would want to know its going okay before launching into odds on. #6 Wizard Jones looks the only possible danger and reckon they might have a little dip for the lead early and if gets over is some hope but doubt he will cross the pole. The rest are all plodders with #4 Woodland Chapel probably going better than any of them
Ratings 1/6/4/field
Race 9
1 Bare Rock Boy R J Hadley 11
2 Diamonds Are Magic (C) B J Rossendell 51
3 Scottys Jewel P R Williams 51
4 Poker Storm A C Duggan 9
5 Drifting West C D Salter 4
6 Bettor Draw G W Rattray 1.4
#6 Bettor Draw ran a huge race last time and gets the benefit of Gareth replacing dad here. Must have been 30 metres off the winner at the 400 out wide and got within 2 metres on the line. Simply has to win on that run. Do have a healthy respect for #5 Drifting West who has been up for a long time and competed against the best 2yos in the state and might have the speed to lead and is the only danger. #4 Poker Storm won an average race last time and is a genuine colt who won't shirk the task but lacks the speed of the others and #1 Bare Rock Boy went okay at the trials behind a couple of smart ones so obviously isn't hopeless. The other 2 runners are both outclassed
Ratings 6/5/1,4
Race 10
1 Marossi (C) M M Maine 9
2 Hugh Bromac B E Wise 3.5
3 Prince Planet B A Gebel 26
4 Buddahs Best Mate (C) J W Johnson 11
5 Loaded To Run (C) J C Howlett 4.5
6 Billabong Bertie D G Medhurst 4
7 Mister Gallenti (C) B J Withers 9
8 Bayfield High (C) T E Rattray 15
2nd heat of the Youngbloods for the junior drivers and definitely the best race of the night and should have definintely been earlier on the program instead of last when very few are watching. #2 Hugh Bromac went very well in a brief Victorian stint and draws to find the pegs first here and confident he will lead despite a quick front line. #6 Billabong Bertie was enormous in defeat last time coming from last out wide in a quick last half but is one dimensional in that cannot be used early so is always vulnerable to tempo. #5 Loaded To Run is as honest as they come and never far away and #7 Mister Gallenti is very hard to catch but when his mind is on the job he is very good so have to keep him safe. #1 Marossi draws to get the perfect trip and is a must include for exotics and #4 Buddahs Best Mate is also some hope. #8 Bayfield High is first up for more than 12 months and trials have been only fair so betting is the only guide
Ratings 2/6/5/1,7/4
4/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/1,4 for $1 cost $32
3/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/1,4 for 50c cost $16
4/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/2,7,9,10,11 flexi cost $35
3/1,3,4,9/3,4,7,8/2,7,9,10,11 flexi cost $17
Tips all races
R1#5 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.60
R2#3 Ronnie Rat EW 1st $8.30
R3#6 Levina Leis 3rd
R4#3 Topup EW 2nd
R5#4 Flight To Mikinos 1st $7.40
R6#7 Sing And Dance 2nd
R7#4 Ombre Operateur UNP
R8#1 Bro Town 3rd
R9#6 Bettor Draw 1st $1.50
R10#2 Hugh Bromac 3rd
Have no specials, if want to have a crack at one around even money take the all up races 1,9 (Thirsty Mach, Bettor Draw) 1st $2.40
Best Lay - R4#2 For My Mum Maggie, just have a query on him when he cops pressure. If he leads tonight the fav will hammer him, if he hands up he can't beat it anyway and if he manages to lead and fight off Cullens Angel there are 2 very good sit/sprinters who will have last crack at him. Has also won past 2 starts and has Gareth Rattray driving so will be supported UNP at around $5 mark
Race 1
1 Willie Winalot (C) J C Howlett 11
2 Dundees Knife D G Medhurst 17
3 Our Desperate Boy (C) B J Withers 41
4 Buddy Beauty (C) T E Rattray 9
5 Thirsty Mach (C) A L Crossland 1.6
6 Glenfern Cruiser N B Ford 15
7 Saab Quality B E Wise 8
8 Its A Hoot (C) M M Maine 8
First heat of the Youngbloods challenge for the junior drivers and its time for #5 Thirsty Mach to stand up here, has always had a big wrap on him and hasn't produced anything substantial as yet. There are no Gedlees to chase in this race so really gets his chance. If they drive him as if he is the best horse in the race he should win. #8 Its A Hoot has really improved of late and being the sole runner on the 2nd row he should get a decent run through early and be in the finish. #7 Saab Quality seems to produce his best when he leads and doubt he can here but still in the mix and #4 Buddy Beauty might be the leader and is an honest little bloke. #1 Willie Winalot rises in class and is a place hope only, #2 Dundees Knife hasn't been too far away but would have to improve panels to win and #6 Glenfern Cruiser does have more abilty than numerical form suggests so include in multiples. #3 Our Desperate Boy looks outclassed
Ratings 5/4,7,8/1,6/2
Race 2
1 Alla Breve G W Rattray 3
2 Pans Illusion N B Ford 5
3 Ronnie Rat M Yole 5
4 Alby Albert R L Hillier 6
5 Ulos S B Ford 8
6 Winjammer C D Salter 6
Impossible race to assess as evidenced by the market with an extremely even field from behind the tapes and its simply a case of which horse gets the right run. #1 Alla Breve is going very well of late but best form has been over shorter trips but if he steps in front these small field stands are usually slowly run so will get his chance. His half brother Alby Albert has been luckless at both runs back in Tassie and could figure with the right run. To keep the family thing going, #3 Ronnie Rat is actually a nephew to both Alla Breve and Alby Albert and is the proven stand horse in lesser grades but is a chance on that score alone. #2 Pans Illusion trialled well recently and can't be ruled out. #6 Winjammer went just as well as Alla Breve last time so cannot leave him out and #5 Ulos is very honest. In other words, I have no idea - sorry! Can probably make some Tasmanian jokes about the in-breeding though!
Ratings 1/2,3/4,6/5
Race 3
1 Mountain Momma N J Emery 26
2 Deejay Bromac K R Austin 34
3 In A Heartbeat W W Rainbird 51
4 Merlin Of Camelot N B Ford 6
5 Broughton R L Duggan 17
6 Levina Leis G W Rattray 1.5
7 Strategic Miss J K Austin scr
8 Call Me James A C Duggan 5.5
Always loathe to declare a 3yo filly taking on older horses as believe they always represent poor value but #6 Levina Leis just looks too good here after taking on the 3yo filly classics recently. The only possible dangers appear to be #8 Count Of James who ran very well at first start in 3 years last time and #4 Merlin Of Camelot whose form is ordinary but has trialled okay for its return to racing. A very thin race and outside of them #5 Broughton appears the only other chance
Ratings 6/4,8/5
Race 4
1 Paul Albert P D Mascall 26
2 For My Mum Maggie G W Rattray 4.5
3 Topup T M Madden 4.5
4 Cullens Angel N B Ford 1.8
5 Bubbas A Fake Scratched scr
6 Secret Rendezvous S B Ford 7
Small field but a very interesting race. If #4 Cullens Angel could find the front it would be game over but I have #2 For My Mum Maggie keeping the front and posting the fav which opens the race up. Still have #4 Cullens Angel on top but only just from #3 Topup who has ran home well in quick time at past 2 and just might get the right run here. I still have doubts on #2 For My Mum Maggie if it cops pressure but still right in the mix and the claimer #6 Secret Rendezvous is low flying at present and if they overdo it up front might be the blowout. #1 Paul Albert won a stand at $66 last time where they ran home in 62 so not a factor here
Ratings 4/3/2/6
Race 5
1 Guerrero G W Rattray 4.5
2 Lomandra J K Austin 26
3 Ontick R L Duggan 4.5
4 Flight To Mikinos M Yole 3.5
5 Touchwood Bucksta D G Medhurst 34
6 King For A Day (C) A Ashwood 15
7 Twograndahand R J Hadley 15
8 Flying Dubai B C Pursell 13
9 Our Sir Lew P R Williams 5
Look to be 4 clear cut chances here but all have some queries about them. #4 Flight To Mikinos was extremely disappointing midweek and whilst the drive left a bit to be desired it still should have done more. I can see him pressing forward here though and finding the front and he always loved that role in Victoria so have him on top. #3 Ontick looked very unlucky last time but had been disappointing prior so would he have let down if the run came we will never know but would win this on best form. #1 Guerrero gets the draw to show his best form and Gareth jumps on which is a huge plus and he can find gatespeed in horses that others cannot so it wouldn't be a huge shock if he led. #9 Our Sir Lew has won his past two starts very well but there is one important change here - the trainer is driving it instead of Nat which is a huge minus and for that reason alone is only my 4th pick. Those four rate clearly in front of the rest with #6 King For A Day, #7 Twograndahand and #8 Flying Dubai all place hopes
Ratings 4/1,3/9/6,7,8
Race 6
1 Tzu Tzu Petals M Yole 9
2 Isadeni Scratched scr
3 Thirtysixtoes S B Ford 3.8
4 Auntyliz N J Emery 8
5 Touchwood Avasta D G Medhurst 41
6 Away Dreaming R L Duggan 26
7 Sing And Dance N B Ford 4
8 Safina Leis G W Rattray 4.5
9 Why Take Time K E MacLeod 26
10 Be Good Jenna A C Duggan 17
11 El Jays Modeena Scratched scr
12 Blackportnlace P R Williams 34
#3 Thirtysixtoes was extremely disappointing last time but draws to lead here and if it repeats its performance against the boys 2 starts back should win. Would have #7 Sing And Dance on top from a decent gate as she waltzed in first up but had all the favours that day and will find it tougher from out in 7. #8 Safina Leis is very inconsistent on paper but when you look at her form she goes very well for Gareth and not for dad and Gareth jumps on here and with any luck from inside the 2nd row draw will be right in it. #4 Auntyliz was backed as if unbeatable at first start and didn't do a thing but must be showing something to justify that support so has to be respected. Of the rest, #1 Tzu Tzu Petals is no star but is honest and a good place prospect from the draw. #6 Away Dreaming is having first Tassie start and would need to improve on only Victorian run and #10 Be Good Jenna had good form early in the year but past few have been mediocre at best
atings 3/7,8/4/1
Race 7
1 Cullens Count (C cl) P D Mascall 6
2 Liskens Gift J K Austin 11
3 Bad Boy Bert M Yole 51
4 Ombre Operateur A C Duggan 3.5
5 Sweetchillifilly G W Rattray 13
6 Touchwood Teeksta D G Medhurst 17
7 Pearls From Heaven R L Duggan 8
8 Paradigm Girl J K Campbell 21
9 The Bullionaire (C cl) M M Maine 13
10 Ashinaga (C) T E Rattray 15
11 Ark West C D Salter 15
12 Bertils Rocket R J Hadley 17
13 Jack Leslie (1st Em) N B Ford
This race is nearly impossible to sort out with the ex Victorian #4 Ombre Operateur definitely holding the key as the rest are that even it isn't funny. He has chased home some handy ones in Victoria in quick sectionals so have put him on top sight unseen but if he is supported he will probably win as no stars in the race. #1 Cullens Count appeared to have his chance last time but this is no harder and looks the leader again so will be around the mark somewhere. #7 Pearls From Heaven needs things to go her way which will be tough from this draw but is better than most of them so you have to respect her. Outside of #3 Bad Boy Bert every runner has some hope
Ratings 4/1/2,7,9,10,11/5,6,12
Race 8 -
1 Bro Town G W Rattray 1.5
2 Girls In Pink D G Medhurst 26
3 Maracas Bay N B Ford 26
4 Woodland Chapel R J Hadley 11
5 Gunbower Jack K R Austin 34
6 Wizard Jones M Yole 3.5
7 Go Go Cisco K W Bourne 34
8 Charlie Grattan P R Williams 26
Very, very poor race and #1 Bro Town looks the winner despite being first up mainly due to lack of opposition. Wouldn't be rushing in to silly odds but simply cannot bet against it and being first up you would want to know its going okay before launching into odds on. #6 Wizard Jones looks the only possible danger and reckon they might have a little dip for the lead early and if gets over is some hope but doubt he will cross the pole. The rest are all plodders with #4 Woodland Chapel probably going better than any of them
Ratings 1/6/4/field
Race 9
1 Bare Rock Boy R J Hadley 11
2 Diamonds Are Magic (C) B J Rossendell 51
3 Scottys Jewel P R Williams 51
4 Poker Storm A C Duggan 9
5 Drifting West C D Salter 4
6 Bettor Draw G W Rattray 1.4
#6 Bettor Draw ran a huge race last time and gets the benefit of Gareth replacing dad here. Must have been 30 metres off the winner at the 400 out wide and got within 2 metres on the line. Simply has to win on that run. Do have a healthy respect for #5 Drifting West who has been up for a long time and competed against the best 2yos in the state and might have the speed to lead and is the only danger. #4 Poker Storm won an average race last time and is a genuine colt who won't shirk the task but lacks the speed of the others and #1 Bare Rock Boy went okay at the trials behind a couple of smart ones so obviously isn't hopeless. The other 2 runners are both outclassed
Ratings 6/5/1,4
Race 10
1 Marossi (C) M M Maine 9
2 Hugh Bromac B E Wise 3.5
3 Prince Planet B A Gebel 26
4 Buddahs Best Mate (C) J W Johnson 11
5 Loaded To Run (C) J C Howlett 4.5
6 Billabong Bertie D G Medhurst 4
7 Mister Gallenti (C) B J Withers 9
8 Bayfield High (C) T E Rattray 15
2nd heat of the Youngbloods for the junior drivers and definitely the best race of the night and should have definintely been earlier on the program instead of last when very few are watching. #2 Hugh Bromac went very well in a brief Victorian stint and draws to find the pegs first here and confident he will lead despite a quick front line. #6 Billabong Bertie was enormous in defeat last time coming from last out wide in a quick last half but is one dimensional in that cannot be used early so is always vulnerable to tempo. #5 Loaded To Run is as honest as they come and never far away and #7 Mister Gallenti is very hard to catch but when his mind is on the job he is very good so have to keep him safe. #1 Marossi draws to get the perfect trip and is a must include for exotics and #4 Buddahs Best Mate is also some hope. #8 Bayfield High is first up for more than 12 months and trials have been only fair so betting is the only guide
Ratings 2/6/5/1,7/4
Pre Race Comments by the "Experts"
Using the term "experts" very loosely here and I have always said if SKY are going to do it then they either employ somebody with a clue or they don't bother at all as it not only lets the punter down but it damages the credibility of the source.
Nothing against Adam Hamilton who probably ensures Harness Racing in Victoria gets more media exposure in the mainstream press than any other state but as a tipster he is fair at best. They need to realise exactly how much influence they have on mainstream punters and stop purporting to give "expert" advice from people who would hardly watch many video replays of races at all.
Take last night's Melton meeting for example, every horse Adam tipped in his pre race preview was crunched by TAB punters at the death and without a great deal of success. It makes sense to me that by employing a form analyst to give the last minute selections that the average punter will be tipped into more winners and therefore parlay that money into later races and increase turnover. Currently, they are a good chance of being broke after race 3.
TabCorp spend millions on marketing and research trying to increase turnover yet continually ignore what is staring them in the face. They should be maximising opportunities when they have punters eating out of the palm of their hand which is immediately before a race. Ever been in a TAB and a racecaller says a horse has been heavily backed??? Well every mug punter rushes up to back it with no thought given to form or price and then moan when it starts massive unders. It is this mentality that they need to capitalise upon.
Punters don't want to see reporters giving out the "late mail", if they were any good at punting they wouldn't be reporters - I have even seen Andrew Bensley doing the late mail at gallops tracks where he would never have even seen a horse race let alone be familiar with the local form.
Don't treat the punters as idiots, they deserve better.
Nothing against Adam Hamilton who probably ensures Harness Racing in Victoria gets more media exposure in the mainstream press than any other state but as a tipster he is fair at best. They need to realise exactly how much influence they have on mainstream punters and stop purporting to give "expert" advice from people who would hardly watch many video replays of races at all.
Take last night's Melton meeting for example, every horse Adam tipped in his pre race preview was crunched by TAB punters at the death and without a great deal of success. It makes sense to me that by employing a form analyst to give the last minute selections that the average punter will be tipped into more winners and therefore parlay that money into later races and increase turnover. Currently, they are a good chance of being broke after race 3.
TabCorp spend millions on marketing and research trying to increase turnover yet continually ignore what is staring them in the face. They should be maximising opportunities when they have punters eating out of the palm of their hand which is immediately before a race. Ever been in a TAB and a racecaller says a horse has been heavily backed??? Well every mug punter rushes up to back it with no thought given to form or price and then moan when it starts massive unders. It is this mentality that they need to capitalise upon.
Punters don't want to see reporters giving out the "late mail", if they were any good at punting they wouldn't be reporters - I have even seen Andrew Bensley doing the late mail at gallops tracks where he would never have even seen a horse race let alone be familiar with the local form.
Don't treat the punters as idiots, they deserve better.
Time to get out amongst it
Freezing to death here in Melbourne, not even the fact I have had 2 great days on the punt is cheering me up much. Picked up $2k on the first four in Melton race 1 on the way to the footy last night and thanks to fellow blogger Lucky (see link for Target 100K Aussie Punting Challenge on right) tipped me into plenty this arvo including a decent slice of the quaddie. Hope my 2 picks at Albion Park can show a bit more than most selections last night.
Feeling a tad embarrassed about my selections last night to be honest with the only 2 to salute being at very prohibitive odds and the rest were pretty average to be blunt. Will excuse Styx By Me who never got out but doubt it beats the winner anyway but of the rest the drives were almost as bad as the performance of the horses
If we look at the results
Ohoka Georgia - last qtr of its race was in 31+ which is unheard of at Metro level and went round them in a 29 qtr so probably ran 28 himself from the 1200 to 800m mark. Still entitled to give a bit more though
Lombo Lumber Jack, is a front of the field horse - simple as that and was never put into the race at any stage and was just winding up on the line
Scruncher, did a ton of work early and the fact they last half was run in 60 in an M2 race over a mile trip sums up the stupidity early
Anyway, heading to the Casino to watch em tonight and catch up with some mates so should be a big one
Feeling a tad embarrassed about my selections last night to be honest with the only 2 to salute being at very prohibitive odds and the rest were pretty average to be blunt. Will excuse Styx By Me who never got out but doubt it beats the winner anyway but of the rest the drives were almost as bad as the performance of the horses
If we look at the results
Ohoka Georgia - last qtr of its race was in 31+ which is unheard of at Metro level and went round them in a 29 qtr so probably ran 28 himself from the 1200 to 800m mark. Still entitled to give a bit more though
Lombo Lumber Jack, is a front of the field horse - simple as that and was never put into the race at any stage and was just winding up on the line
Scruncher, did a ton of work early and the fact they last half was run in 60 in an M2 race over a mile trip sums up the stupidity early
Anyway, heading to the Casino to watch em tonight and catch up with some mates so should be a big one
Friday, June 18, 2010
Weekend Tips
Going to Melbourne for the weekend for a bit of footy, the races (gallops) and probably just a couple of beers!!!
These are all selections for weekend with more confident ones in bold
Friday
Wagga
R4#8 Lucknow Lady'
Melton
R4#2 Ohoka Georgia
R8#9 Lombo Lumber Jack
Gold Coast
R6#7 Blazing Terror
Gloucester Park
R1#6 Styx By Me
R2#8 Scruncher
R6#4 Tsunami Lombo
------------------------------------------
Saturday
Albion Park
R2#6 Tiamour
R7#6 Arma Fake
-----------------------------------------
Sunday
Geelong
R1#8 Ess Are Vee
R4#6 Slippinalong
Hobart (all up)
R1#5 Thirsty Mach
R9#6 Bettor Draw
These are all selections for weekend with more confident ones in bold
Friday
Wagga
R4#8 Lucknow Lady'
Melton
R4#2 Ohoka Georgia
R8#9 Lombo Lumber Jack
Gold Coast
R6#7 Blazing Terror
Gloucester Park
R1#6 Styx By Me
R2#8 Scruncher
R6#4 Tsunami Lombo
------------------------------------------
Saturday
Albion Park
R2#6 Tiamour
R7#6 Arma Fake
-----------------------------------------
Sunday
Geelong
R1#8 Ess Are Vee
R4#6 Slippinalong
Hobart (all up)
R1#5 Thirsty Mach
R9#6 Bettor Draw
Thursday, June 17, 2010
State Premierships - a few things stand out
VICTORIA
Absolutely amazed to see that Kerryn Manning has trained 83 winners, exactly the same as her father. That means they have trained 166 winners between them and if they were in a single name as they used to be would be obliterating the opposition. Before I looked, I assumed Glenn Douglas would well ahead (currently 95 wins) as I have in my mind that the Manning camp have scaled things down since their domination during the early part of the decade
QUEENSLAND
Mathew Neilson has driven 149 winners, definitely flies under the radar in the shadow of Team Dixon but that is a great effort. Also Peter McMullen has driven 104 winners as a Junior Driver which deserves a mention.
NEW SOUTH WALES
Amanda Turnbull has driven 112 winners, I thought that Ashlee Siejka would be well in front in the female driver front but Amanda is right up there
TASMANIA
The domination of two individuals clearly stands out - Gareth Rattray in the drivers and Phillip Ford in the trainers who both have more than doubled their nearest rival. Strangely enough, Gareth would be lucky to have driven 5 winners for the Ford stable as well
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
The usual suspect - David Harding. You see him dominate meetings but its not until you look at the actual figures that it really hits home
Absolutely amazed to see that Kerryn Manning has trained 83 winners, exactly the same as her father. That means they have trained 166 winners between them and if they were in a single name as they used to be would be obliterating the opposition. Before I looked, I assumed Glenn Douglas would well ahead (currently 95 wins) as I have in my mind that the Manning camp have scaled things down since their domination during the early part of the decade
QUEENSLAND
Mathew Neilson has driven 149 winners, definitely flies under the radar in the shadow of Team Dixon but that is a great effort. Also Peter McMullen has driven 104 winners as a Junior Driver which deserves a mention.
NEW SOUTH WALES
Amanda Turnbull has driven 112 winners, I thought that Ashlee Siejka would be well in front in the female driver front but Amanda is right up there
TASMANIA
The domination of two individuals clearly stands out - Gareth Rattray in the drivers and Phillip Ford in the trainers who both have more than doubled their nearest rival. Strangely enough, Gareth would be lucky to have driven 5 winners for the Ford stable as well
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
The usual suspect - David Harding. You see him dominate meetings but its not until you look at the actual figures that it really hits home
Thursday Tips
Kilmore - just a couple who might go round over the odds but not good things by any means
R1#5 Als Gift, don't actually know how well he is going as been badly held up at past 3 starts but worth a bet as might spear across early here
R7#2 Macterra Boy, pretty sure he will be able to drop in behind Zoro early as doubt #8 Melbournian will have the speed to keep its back. If he sits there it surely couldn't miss a place so a 1x3 bet is the go
Terang
Quinella Race 8 - 6,9 (Ghurka, Eisenheim), looks a moral to be honest and if paying $1.80 will take it
R1#5 Als Gift, don't actually know how well he is going as been badly held up at past 3 starts but worth a bet as might spear across early here
R7#2 Macterra Boy, pretty sure he will be able to drop in behind Zoro early as doubt #8 Melbournian will have the speed to keep its back. If he sits there it surely couldn't miss a place so a 1x3 bet is the go
Terang
Quinella Race 8 - 6,9 (Ghurka, Eisenheim), looks a moral to be honest and if paying $1.80 will take it
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Early Tote Indicators - Launceston
Just something I always do for Tassie meetings is look at all the pools early on and see if anything has had a large bet placed. Not a reliable guide obviously but can certainly give an indication as to horses who are first up or have changed stables
Race 1 - Spot Nine is first up for a new stable and is odds on in early TAB figures
Race 3 - Sing And Dance is resuming and $1.04 in NSW but only $360 in pool
Race 7 - Underdog has the most money invested early of any runner
Nothing too startling this week and as I said you can't read too much into it as Sing And Dance for example might be owned in NSW but it is good to see that somebody has placed a half decent sized bet early on
Race 1 - Spot Nine is first up for a new stable and is odds on in early TAB figures
Race 3 - Sing And Dance is resuming and $1.04 in NSW but only $360 in pool
Race 7 - Underdog has the most money invested early of any runner
Nothing too startling this week and as I said you can't read too much into it as Sing And Dance for example might be owned in NSW but it is good to see that somebody has placed a half decent sized bet early on
Launceston Odds and Ratings - Wednesday June 16
Better Bets (notice I didn't say Best Bets ....)
R3#1 Sing And Dance
R5#8 Flight To Mikinos
R8#3 Bymarjac
Quaddie
2,5
3,4,8,9
1,3,4,6,9,10
1,9
Race 1
1 Isadeni 8
2 Spot Nine 4
3 Prisonbreak 2.2
4 Sarah Roland scr
5 Honest Art 8
6 Next Sound 15
7 Celtic Legend 13
8 Karalta Lady scr
9 Anoptomist 4.5
Couple of scratchings has made this a very thin race. #3 Prisonbreak was very good last time out, he has gatespeed and is tough so has to go on top. There is a huge watch on #2 Spot Nine though who is first up for the Hodges stable and they have a great record with new stable additions so despite him being disappointing recently don't be surprised to see a massive improvement here. #9 Anoptoist has chased some good ones lately and will find this much easier and appears the only other hope. If taking exotics the rest are pretty even
Ratings 3/2/9/field
Early money was spot on for the 2 who beat the 3
Race 2
1 Rock The Pocket scr
2 Silent Jim 5.5
3 Top Premier 26
4 Bajardo River 3.2
5 Little Bluejeans 3.2
6 Real Reserve 17
7 Brown Paige 4.5
8 Sameas Maz 17
9 Touchwood Fortune 26
Shocking race and my two top picks are stablemates so betting could tell the picture here. #5 Little Bluejeans ran his best race in ages last time and gets Gareth here so have him on top, #4 Bajardo River has good gatespeed and last run was better than it looked after copping some pressure early so if he gets a soft lead might be the one. #7 Brown Paige hasn't had much luck lately but is going to need some from this draw but must be kept safe. Of the rest, #2 Silent Jim looks the only other winning chance
Ratings 5/4/7/2
Garbage race, ran a 68 first half in a mile race ffs and all my betting was around the 4 who was a certain leader but galloped so everything was out the window when that happened
Race 3
1 Sing And Dance 3.2
2 The Aces 17
3 Amberlu Ball 3.5
4 Hes No Saint scr
5 Buddy Beauty 7
6 Legerwood Creek 13
7 Modern Lobell 6
8 El Jays Modeena 9
9 Diebercharged 17
Hard race to assess and have come up with #1 Sing And Dance as the top pick despite being first up. Has pretty good gatespeed but there is plenty of speed outside her so no guarantee of leading but did chase some good ones prior to a spell and did win a trial in average time to prepare for this. #3 Amberlu Ball is also first up and has always shown enough but never quite put it together, she only trialled fairly recently but betting will tell the story. #5 Buddy Beauty ran a close 3rd to Jay Bardon and Thirsty Mach 3 starts back after leading which sounds very good against this lot but he did run a 69 half which enabled him to sprint home. He would have to lead to beat these and not sure he can. #7 Modern Lobell chased home the star filly Maggie Kennedy last time after a soft trip from the pole draw and will have to do it a lot tougher here. One of that quartet should win the race but the others are not totally out of play
Ratings 1/3/5/7/field
3 horse is a late scr here which will destroy any value in the pole. Won easily but at a good things price - TABs ranged from $1.50 - $1.80. They have to do something about sectional times in Tassie, first qtr there in 35
Race 4
1 Bygone Era 7
2 Secret Rendezvous 4
3 Wayne Rooney 26
4 King Albert 7
5 Bonny Wee Laddie 3
6 Forty Two Grand 9
7 Zonda 7
The claimers revert to racing behind the mobile here which should suit #5 Bonnie Wee Laddie who has blown the stand a couple of times so should settle much closer here. #2 Secret Rendezvous has been racing in good fields of late and the return to this class suits so is definitely the danger. The rest are all pretty even with only #3 Wayne Rooney looking to have no hope. Would give #4 King Albert a huge show but not sure if he can lead as #1 will try and punch through I reckon
Ratings 2,5/1,4,6,7
Race 5
1 Cranleigh Lass 34
2 No News At Seven 34
3 Prettyboytoby 5
4 Next Brigade 7
5 Light The Lantern 34
6 Pop Billy 51
7 Royal Village scr
8 Flight To Mikinos 2.3
9 Pennys Dragon 4.5
10 Glory Is Illusive 17
Pretty keen on #8 Flight To Mikinos in this stand start affair, was very impressive at first Tassie start coming from off the speed out wide in a 28 closing fraction. Has also been placed 4 times from the stand in Victoria so that shouldn't present a problem either. #9 Pennys Dragon is going way better than form suggests and got hammered in front last time and definitely looks the danger here. I always have a healthy respect for any chance drawn the front in a stand and #3 Prettyboytoby joins the in form Melissa Maine stable so has to be included. #4 Next Brigade appears the only other hope
Ratings 8/3,9/4
Race 6
1 The Musician 5
2 Davpass 41
3 Rocky Creek 7
4 Most Happy Jasper 9
5 Highflyin Fred 34
6 Our Sir Thomas 11
7 Camwood 17
8 Liskens Gift 17
9 Unrivalled 13
10 Keen Operator 3.8
11 As You Wish 17
12 Jack Leslie 17
Very, very hard race to sort out. Have #10 Keen Operator as fav and my top pick but hard to be confident with a horse who has won 1 of 57 starts though which sums the race up. He has been going better than these though so have to put him on top. #1 The Musician has to be driven for luck but if the breaks come will go very close. Both #3 Rocky Creek and #4 Most Happy Jasper love to lead in their races and it looks as if one of the will get there in this so also come into play and also cannot rule out either #6 Our Sir Thomas or #9 Unrivalled
Ratings 10/1/3,4,6/9
Race 7
1 Underdog 3
2 Duart Castle 7
3 In Cruise Mode 17
4 Shirnell 26
5 Topotheclouds 11
6 Glenwood Jasper 5
7 Toucha Revenge 21
8 My Centurion 21
9 Advance Dundee 4.5
Look to be four clear standouts here. #1 Underdog is proving very costly but gets the right draw here to bounce back. I do have a slight query on whether he can hold the front with #2 Duart Castle having some hope of getting over and if he does can definitely win. #9 Advance Dundee looks the main danger to the pole as the formline around him is very strong. Of the rest, #6 Glenwood Jasper only other hope who smashed a weak lot at Devonport
Ratings 1/9/6/2
Race 8
1 Major Ruler 5
2 Ashotatlife 7
3 Bymarjac 1.4
4 Safe Prospect 13
5 Hamish Sanz 21
6 Crombie Bay 34
#3 Bymarjac led and just got nutted on the line last time in a good field. He looks the leader again here and if he does should win. #1 Major Ruler is very one paced but if he could manage to keep the front would come right into play. #2 Ashotatlife ran an even race on debut but this is no easier but still is 3rd pick. #4 Safe Prospect did a bit wrong on debut and wasn't far away so is a good place chance if puts it together
Ratings 3/1/2,4
R3#1 Sing And Dance
R5#8 Flight To Mikinos
R8#3 Bymarjac
Quaddie
2,5
3,4,8,9
1,3,4,6,9,10
1,9
Race 1
1 Isadeni 8
2 Spot Nine 4
3 Prisonbreak 2.2
4 Sarah Roland scr
5 Honest Art 8
6 Next Sound 15
7 Celtic Legend 13
8 Karalta Lady scr
9 Anoptomist 4.5
Couple of scratchings has made this a very thin race. #3 Prisonbreak was very good last time out, he has gatespeed and is tough so has to go on top. There is a huge watch on #2 Spot Nine though who is first up for the Hodges stable and they have a great record with new stable additions so despite him being disappointing recently don't be surprised to see a massive improvement here. #9 Anoptoist has chased some good ones lately and will find this much easier and appears the only other hope. If taking exotics the rest are pretty even
Ratings 3/2/9/field
Early money was spot on for the 2 who beat the 3
Race 2
1 Rock The Pocket scr
2 Silent Jim 5.5
3 Top Premier 26
4 Bajardo River 3.2
5 Little Bluejeans 3.2
6 Real Reserve 17
7 Brown Paige 4.5
8 Sameas Maz 17
9 Touchwood Fortune 26
Shocking race and my two top picks are stablemates so betting could tell the picture here. #5 Little Bluejeans ran his best race in ages last time and gets Gareth here so have him on top, #4 Bajardo River has good gatespeed and last run was better than it looked after copping some pressure early so if he gets a soft lead might be the one. #7 Brown Paige hasn't had much luck lately but is going to need some from this draw but must be kept safe. Of the rest, #2 Silent Jim looks the only other winning chance
Ratings 5/4/7/2
Garbage race, ran a 68 first half in a mile race ffs and all my betting was around the 4 who was a certain leader but galloped so everything was out the window when that happened
Race 3
1 Sing And Dance 3.2
2 The Aces 17
3 Amberlu Ball 3.5
4 Hes No Saint scr
5 Buddy Beauty 7
6 Legerwood Creek 13
7 Modern Lobell 6
8 El Jays Modeena 9
9 Diebercharged 17
Hard race to assess and have come up with #1 Sing And Dance as the top pick despite being first up. Has pretty good gatespeed but there is plenty of speed outside her so no guarantee of leading but did chase some good ones prior to a spell and did win a trial in average time to prepare for this. #3 Amberlu Ball is also first up and has always shown enough but never quite put it together, she only trialled fairly recently but betting will tell the story. #5 Buddy Beauty ran a close 3rd to Jay Bardon and Thirsty Mach 3 starts back after leading which sounds very good against this lot but he did run a 69 half which enabled him to sprint home. He would have to lead to beat these and not sure he can. #7 Modern Lobell chased home the star filly Maggie Kennedy last time after a soft trip from the pole draw and will have to do it a lot tougher here. One of that quartet should win the race but the others are not totally out of play
Ratings 1/3/5/7/field
3 horse is a late scr here which will destroy any value in the pole. Won easily but at a good things price - TABs ranged from $1.50 - $1.80. They have to do something about sectional times in Tassie, first qtr there in 35
Race 4
1 Bygone Era 7
2 Secret Rendezvous 4
3 Wayne Rooney 26
4 King Albert 7
5 Bonny Wee Laddie 3
6 Forty Two Grand 9
7 Zonda 7
The claimers revert to racing behind the mobile here which should suit #5 Bonnie Wee Laddie who has blown the stand a couple of times so should settle much closer here. #2 Secret Rendezvous has been racing in good fields of late and the return to this class suits so is definitely the danger. The rest are all pretty even with only #3 Wayne Rooney looking to have no hope. Would give #4 King Albert a huge show but not sure if he can lead as #1 will try and punch through I reckon
Ratings 2,5/1,4,6,7
Race 5
1 Cranleigh Lass 34
2 No News At Seven 34
3 Prettyboytoby 5
4 Next Brigade 7
5 Light The Lantern 34
6 Pop Billy 51
7 Royal Village scr
8 Flight To Mikinos 2.3
9 Pennys Dragon 4.5
10 Glory Is Illusive 17
Pretty keen on #8 Flight To Mikinos in this stand start affair, was very impressive at first Tassie start coming from off the speed out wide in a 28 closing fraction. Has also been placed 4 times from the stand in Victoria so that shouldn't present a problem either. #9 Pennys Dragon is going way better than form suggests and got hammered in front last time and definitely looks the danger here. I always have a healthy respect for any chance drawn the front in a stand and #3 Prettyboytoby joins the in form Melissa Maine stable so has to be included. #4 Next Brigade appears the only other hope
Ratings 8/3,9/4
Race 6
1 The Musician 5
2 Davpass 41
3 Rocky Creek 7
4 Most Happy Jasper 9
5 Highflyin Fred 34
6 Our Sir Thomas 11
7 Camwood 17
8 Liskens Gift 17
9 Unrivalled 13
10 Keen Operator 3.8
11 As You Wish 17
12 Jack Leslie 17
Very, very hard race to sort out. Have #10 Keen Operator as fav and my top pick but hard to be confident with a horse who has won 1 of 57 starts though which sums the race up. He has been going better than these though so have to put him on top. #1 The Musician has to be driven for luck but if the breaks come will go very close. Both #3 Rocky Creek and #4 Most Happy Jasper love to lead in their races and it looks as if one of the will get there in this so also come into play and also cannot rule out either #6 Our Sir Thomas or #9 Unrivalled
Ratings 10/1/3,4,6/9
Race 7
1 Underdog 3
2 Duart Castle 7
3 In Cruise Mode 17
4 Shirnell 26
5 Topotheclouds 11
6 Glenwood Jasper 5
7 Toucha Revenge 21
8 My Centurion 21
9 Advance Dundee 4.5
Look to be four clear standouts here. #1 Underdog is proving very costly but gets the right draw here to bounce back. I do have a slight query on whether he can hold the front with #2 Duart Castle having some hope of getting over and if he does can definitely win. #9 Advance Dundee looks the main danger to the pole as the formline around him is very strong. Of the rest, #6 Glenwood Jasper only other hope who smashed a weak lot at Devonport
Ratings 1/9/6/2
Race 8
1 Major Ruler 5
2 Ashotatlife 7
3 Bymarjac 1.4
4 Safe Prospect 13
5 Hamish Sanz 21
6 Crombie Bay 34
#3 Bymarjac led and just got nutted on the line last time in a good field. He looks the leader again here and if he does should win. #1 Major Ruler is very one paced but if he could manage to keep the front would come right into play. #2 Ashotatlife ran an even race on debut but this is no easier but still is 3rd pick. #4 Safe Prospect did a bit wrong on debut and wasn't far away so is a good place chance if puts it together
Ratings 3/1/2,4
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Things that annoy me - just a couple
1. TAB Rounding of dividends - akin to outright theft in my opinion. Occurs in every race where the exact price of a runner is reduced to 1 decimal place (eg; a horse paying $1.69 will only pay $1.60) which actually means the TAB takeout in each is far in excess of the stated 16% and can in fact be as high as 25%. To rub it in, the excess funds derived from this thievery are not returned to the racing industry but instead added to TabCorp coffers in the same way unclaimed dividends are.
They should be forced to declare the full dividend and only round down if a punter has a small bet that equated to say $1.675 and pay that punter $1.65 - my corner store for God's sake has software in place to calculate rounding so surely the TAB can implement the same. This practice costs punters nationally in excess of $100 million per annum which in itself probably explains why they don't.
Maybe V'Landys would be better off pursuing this money instead of his crusade against Betfair and the Corps which I will touch upon later.
2. Substitute Rule - what a joke this is, punters in Quadrellas and Doubles having their investment placed onto a horse they might not even like and a lot of the time you don't even know what horse you have until after the race. It is time to have a special dividend introduced when a selection is a late scratching.
I can vividly recall investing $1600 on a Quadrella purely on the basis that a horse who was going to start odds on in the 3rd leg could not win. I therefore anchored the 2nd fav who was quoted at around $3.50 (all other runners were $20 or above). My horse kicked the stalls and injured itself prior to the race and was scratched which meant my entire $1600 bet went onto the exact horse that I gave no chance of winning. Sure enough, it got beaten and my horse which was scratched went on to win its next 6 starts.
3. Racing NSW v Betfair - This has been done to death in forums so won't go too much into it, plus I am undecidedly biased on the side of Betfair. Just thought I would list a couple of facts and not go over old ground.
Peter V'Landys always states that by Betfair only paying a % of gross profit that Racing NSW may not get anything. Well Peter, Betfair is an exchange and guaranteed to profit on an event due to the nature of the enterprise. Plus with the continual trading of positions, it is possible to invest huge amounts of money in an event despite a small initial outlay, for example, last Friday night I placed $200 on North Melbourne @ $4.30 to beat Carlton then later in the game I used that position to hold $400 on them @ $1.44. This would obviously lead to grossly inflated turnover amounts ($600 in this example despite only outlaying $200 and this is just a small example) which Mr V'Landys and his merry men fail to understand.
I actually do have some sympathy with him re the Corporate Bookmakers in that they should be paying a turnover charge and not percentage of profits as due to the nature of their industry they may actually lose. However, they have all been lumped into the same category which isn't their fault so I only hope they win.
How he ever got the job with Racing NSW is beyond me. This is the same bloke after all who thought it was a good idea to introduce 12 horse fields into 1700m races around Harold Park. Obviously not a brain surgeon is our Peter.
They should be forced to declare the full dividend and only round down if a punter has a small bet that equated to say $1.675 and pay that punter $1.65 - my corner store for God's sake has software in place to calculate rounding so surely the TAB can implement the same. This practice costs punters nationally in excess of $100 million per annum which in itself probably explains why they don't.
Maybe V'Landys would be better off pursuing this money instead of his crusade against Betfair and the Corps which I will touch upon later.
2. Substitute Rule - what a joke this is, punters in Quadrellas and Doubles having their investment placed onto a horse they might not even like and a lot of the time you don't even know what horse you have until after the race. It is time to have a special dividend introduced when a selection is a late scratching.
I can vividly recall investing $1600 on a Quadrella purely on the basis that a horse who was going to start odds on in the 3rd leg could not win. I therefore anchored the 2nd fav who was quoted at around $3.50 (all other runners were $20 or above). My horse kicked the stalls and injured itself prior to the race and was scratched which meant my entire $1600 bet went onto the exact horse that I gave no chance of winning. Sure enough, it got beaten and my horse which was scratched went on to win its next 6 starts.
3. Racing NSW v Betfair - This has been done to death in forums so won't go too much into it, plus I am undecidedly biased on the side of Betfair. Just thought I would list a couple of facts and not go over old ground.
Peter V'Landys always states that by Betfair only paying a % of gross profit that Racing NSW may not get anything. Well Peter, Betfair is an exchange and guaranteed to profit on an event due to the nature of the enterprise. Plus with the continual trading of positions, it is possible to invest huge amounts of money in an event despite a small initial outlay, for example, last Friday night I placed $200 on North Melbourne @ $4.30 to beat Carlton then later in the game I used that position to hold $400 on them @ $1.44. This would obviously lead to grossly inflated turnover amounts ($600 in this example despite only outlaying $200 and this is just a small example) which Mr V'Landys and his merry men fail to understand.
I actually do have some sympathy with him re the Corporate Bookmakers in that they should be paying a turnover charge and not percentage of profits as due to the nature of their industry they may actually lose. However, they have all been lumped into the same category which isn't their fault so I only hope they win.
How he ever got the job with Racing NSW is beyond me. This is the same bloke after all who thought it was a good idea to introduce 12 horse fields into 1700m races around Harold Park. Obviously not a brain surgeon is our Peter.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Tassie Trots - Get on the Gravy Train
It simply amazes me the amount of serious punters who ignore Tasmanian Harness Racing as a betting option. It is a fair dinkum licence to print money. Why I hear you ask?
- Same horses race against each other every week
- They all come through the same formlines so easy to measure the strength of a race as opposed to Victoria for example where you get formlines from 6,7 different races and have to try and guage the strength
- You get to know the traits of every driver as you are familiar with them all
- Most races you can put a pen through half the field as no chance of winning
- The percentage of mug money in pools is increased as the majority have no idea due to lack of media coverage of the meetings
It truly is a licence to print it and most punters are missing out
Be away for a few days
Mate is taking a few greyhounds to race at Rockhampton and wanted to know if I would tag along. Never been up there so thought it would be worth a look doing the trip once so will be offline for a couple of days as is a 10 hour trip either way
Hope they have bookies up there
Hope they have bookies up there
Harness Tips - Sunday June 13
LAUNCESTON
full preview and ratings can be found a couple of posts earlier
Tips for all races:
Race 1 - #7 Riverina Chelsea 1st $5.0
Race 2 - #9 Modern Judge UNP
Race 3 - #7 Jonzaak EW UNP
Race 4 - #2 Maggie Kennedy 1st $1.20
Race 5 - #5 Gedlee 1st $1.30
Race 6 - #10 The Musics Over 1st $5.0
Race 7 - #9 Charleys Dream 1st $1.50
Race 8 - #1 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
Race 9 - #9 Pearls From Heaven 2nd
Race 10 - #2 Mick Armalive 1st $2.50
There are a few shorties on the program and a couple of races that I'm not overly keen on so the 3 in bold would be the ones I recommend as all will be backable
Best exotic bet
Race 8 Quinella - 1,2 (Nobeer Nocheer, Murillo Bromac) 1st $3.40
ANOTHER restricted meeting at Melton so giving it a wide berth
full preview and ratings can be found a couple of posts earlier
Tips for all races:
Race 1 - #7 Riverina Chelsea 1st $5.0
Race 2 - #9 Modern Judge UNP
Race 3 - #7 Jonzaak EW UNP
Race 4 - #2 Maggie Kennedy 1st $1.20
Race 5 - #5 Gedlee 1st $1.30
Race 6 - #10 The Musics Over 1st $5.0
Race 7 - #9 Charleys Dream 1st $1.50
Race 8 - #1 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
Race 9 - #9 Pearls From Heaven 2nd
Race 10 - #2 Mick Armalive 1st $2.50
There are a few shorties on the program and a couple of races that I'm not overly keen on so the 3 in bold would be the ones I recommend as all will be backable
Best exotic bet
Race 8 Quinella - 1,2 (Nobeer Nocheer, Murillo Bromac) 1st $3.40
ANOTHER restricted meeting at Melton so giving it a wide berth
Time for the stewards to stand up
I have been swayed in my view that there is one rule for the top drivers and another for the battlers and you only have to look at who has been suspended lately and the facts don't lie. I have regularly bagged amateur drivers but the rules still should be consistent no matter who you are
I have 3 almost identical incidents:
#1 The High Profile Driver
Think we all can remember the Natalie Rasmussen drama when driving Make No Promises when she left the pegs at the top of the straight and let the stablemate (Elzar) through who went on to win the race. It was shocking and happened in a group 3 race so the penalty should be more severe if anything. The replay can be seen here and the horses in question are leading and 3 pegs when the vision starts. She was found to have no case to answer.
http://www.harness.org.au/video/qld/GCC26060902.wmv
#2 The Battler
The Boris Devcic suspension. This deserved time without a doubt but there isn't a lot different compared to the Team Dixon scenario. Got 6 months for the drive here on Seymour when stablemate Seymour Lights was on his back.
http://www.harness.org.au/video/vic/MLC24010701.wmv
#3 The case to be heard
Tonight at Bendigo in race 4 there were stablemates #1 Boro Magic and #10 Heezabit Rusty and HR went around to lead with stablemate on its back and was in all sorts of trouble on the turn then appeared to shift its ground to allow the stablemate through to win the race. Craig Northcott is the driver in question and is a battler so don't like his chances.
http://www.harness.org.au/video/vic/BNC12061003.wmv
As I alluded to, I don't like Craig Northcott's chances to get off. Maybe if he was the trainer/driver of a multiple InterDominion winning horse who was being used to market the exact carnival the episode occurred in it may be a different story...... Seems to happen in all walks of life so why should Harness Racing be any different.
To further support this viewpoint, I just went back over past stewards reports (only for 2 wks and in Victoria solely so not a great representative sample I will grant you) but what I found was amazing.
The figures clearly show that either:
(a) experienced drivers are treated differently to inexperienced ones
OR
(b) we have a major issue with the competency and the training given to our inexperienced drivers
These were the only suspensions handed out for the fortnight ending June 11, 2010 and I am sure you will notice the trend which supports my argument that the soft targets seemingly cop it from the stewards and the big boys get off. The list is:
Tim McGuigan 2 wks
Michael Sullivan 4 wks
Phillip Percy 2 wks
Robin Leonard 2 wks
Derrick Kraft 2 wks
Kate Attard 2 wks
Adam Richardson 2 wks
Amanda McHenry 4 wks
Alex Douglas 8 weeks
Brady Jones 5 wks
Shane Hoban 4 wks
Steve Austin 4 wks
Ellen Tormey 2 wks
Peter Hornsby 2 wks
Boris Devcic 4 wks
Barry Turner 2 wks
Sam Flourentzou 4 wks
Not too many regular metro drivers there and as I said before, we either have a major training (and therefore OH&S) issue or there are 2 rules in place.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then its a ....
I have 3 almost identical incidents:
#1 The High Profile Driver
Think we all can remember the Natalie Rasmussen drama when driving Make No Promises when she left the pegs at the top of the straight and let the stablemate (Elzar) through who went on to win the race. It was shocking and happened in a group 3 race so the penalty should be more severe if anything. The replay can be seen here and the horses in question are leading and 3 pegs when the vision starts. She was found to have no case to answer.
http://www.harness.org.au/video/qld/GCC26060902.wmv
#2 The Battler
The Boris Devcic suspension. This deserved time without a doubt but there isn't a lot different compared to the Team Dixon scenario. Got 6 months for the drive here on Seymour when stablemate Seymour Lights was on his back.
http://www.harness.org.au/video/vic/MLC24010701.wmv
#3 The case to be heard
Tonight at Bendigo in race 4 there were stablemates #1 Boro Magic and #10 Heezabit Rusty and HR went around to lead with stablemate on its back and was in all sorts of trouble on the turn then appeared to shift its ground to allow the stablemate through to win the race. Craig Northcott is the driver in question and is a battler so don't like his chances.
http://www.harness.org.au/video/vic/BNC12061003.wmv
As I alluded to, I don't like Craig Northcott's chances to get off. Maybe if he was the trainer/driver of a multiple InterDominion winning horse who was being used to market the exact carnival the episode occurred in it may be a different story...... Seems to happen in all walks of life so why should Harness Racing be any different.
To further support this viewpoint, I just went back over past stewards reports (only for 2 wks and in Victoria solely so not a great representative sample I will grant you) but what I found was amazing.
The figures clearly show that either:
(a) experienced drivers are treated differently to inexperienced ones
OR
(b) we have a major issue with the competency and the training given to our inexperienced drivers
These were the only suspensions handed out for the fortnight ending June 11, 2010 and I am sure you will notice the trend which supports my argument that the soft targets seemingly cop it from the stewards and the big boys get off. The list is:
Tim McGuigan 2 wks
Michael Sullivan 4 wks
Phillip Percy 2 wks
Robin Leonard 2 wks
Derrick Kraft 2 wks
Kate Attard 2 wks
Adam Richardson 2 wks
Amanda McHenry 4 wks
Alex Douglas 8 weeks
Brady Jones 5 wks
Shane Hoban 4 wks
Steve Austin 4 wks
Ellen Tormey 2 wks
Peter Hornsby 2 wks
Boris Devcic 4 wks
Barry Turner 2 wks
Sam Flourentzou 4 wks
Not too many regular metro drivers there and as I said before, we either have a major training (and therefore OH&S) issue or there are 2 rules in place.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then its a ....
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Launceston Odds and Ratings - Sunday June 13
There are 3 dead set morals on the card but all will be at prohibitive odds
R4#2 Maggie Kennedy
R5#5 Gedlee
R8#1 Nobeer Nocheer
Outside of them
Best Bet
R6#10 The Musics Over - hoping to get $3.50+
Best Exotic
R8 - quinella 1,2 (looks a good bet actually and be very happy with black figures)
Race 1
1 Buddy Beauty scr
2 Macasaol Magic 11
3 Inchbyinch 8
4 Seymour Gold 51
5 Willie Winalot 17
6 Honest Art 15
7 Riverina Chelsea 3.5
8 Karalta Lady 11
--------------------------
9 El Jays Modeena 15
10 Rubys Life 21
11 Saab Quality 5
12 Cardinal Dreamer 17
13 Peace Chief 21
Initially found this race very hard to assess but quietly confident that either the filly #7 Riverina Chelsea or the colt #11 Saab Quality will win the race and have actually given the filly the edge even from the draw. Others with a chance are #3 Inchbyinch who looks the leader, #8 Karalta Lady who has drawn the car park and need luck and you have to include numbers 5,6,9,10,12,13 in exotics. A very interesting runner is #2 Macasaol Magic whose form is average but looking at the totes earlier was $1.20 with $2300 in the win pool which is a decent bet in Tassie so has to be respected on that score alone
Ratings 7/11/3/2,5,6,8,9,10,12,13
Race 2
1 Scottys Jewel 41
2 Monita Em 67
3 Codie Karalta scr
4 Bettors Express 6
5 Apache River 3.5
6 Wundababe 13
7 Bettor Draw 8
8 Johnnyace 17
---------------------
9 Modern Judge 3.5
10 Karalta Wizard 5
Don't know where to start here as #3 was one of my better bets on the card. #5 Apache River wasn't overly impressive at first start but form has stood up okay and looks the leader so has to go on top, #9 Modern Judge draws awfully but with any luck at all should probably win. #10 Karalta Wizard is very one paced but always thereabouts and of the rest #4 Bettors Express looked a little unlucky last time but did get a dream run and #7 Bettor Draw won an average race at first start. Even #6 Wundababe ran a cheeky race last time
Ratings 5,9/4,10/7/6
Race 3
1 Sophies Pleasure 13
2 Southern Playmate 7
3 Play Time Lady 34
4 Duart Castle 34
5 Loaded To Run 3.5
6 Billabong Bertie 2.5
7 Jonzaak 4.5
The barrier draw has opened this race up a little with the 3 main fancies drawing wide. #6 Billabong Bertie is an enigmatic beast who looks a star one day and a dud the next. Couldn't have him at the price but if he produced his best would beat these. #5 Loaded To Run is no star but very honest and will be around the mark. I blackbooked #7 Jonzaak last time making ground out wide in a 28.1 final qtr so might be the value. #1 Sophies Pleasure is as honest as they come but rarely wins and #2 Southern Playmate has won her past two starts in inferior fields and had the run of the race both times so might find this tougher
Ratings 6/5,7/1,2
Race 4
1 Modern Lobell 21
2 Maggie Kennedy 1.25
3 Why Take Time 101
4 Blackportnlace 101
5 Levina Leis 5
6 No Time To Dream 101
7 Spirited Ruler 101
8 Ell Ess Babe 13
-----------------------
9 Safina Leis 17
10 Sarah Roland 67
#2 Maggie Kennedy has dominated the 3YO fillies races this year and from this draw looks unbeatable. #5 Levina Leis is not far behind ability wise but draw makes it tough as will have to sit outside Maggie. The only other hopes have both drawn badly in #8 Ell Ess Babe and #9 Safina Leis. #1 Modern promise draws to get a gun run behind the fav and isn't the worst so a good place hope. They rate miles clear of the rest and be very surprised if they don't run the first four
Ratings 2/5/8,9/1
Race 5
1 Cardinal Tucker 26
2 Glenfern Cruiser 41
3 Maybe Doc 17
4 Jay Bardon 9
5 Gedlee 1.5
6 Cardinal Dreamer scr
7 Jonny Red Neat scr
8 Thirsty Mach 13
------------------------
9 Lugovoi Leis 13
10 Anoptomist 101
11 Enchanted Heart 21
12 Its A Hoot 34
13 Iden Justasmyrk 34
A very good race this for the 3YOs. #5 Gedlee is a budding star and can see no reason why he won't continue on his winning way and whilst no certainty to lead he can do it tough as well. #4 Jay Bardon is the one who looks likely to get a great run so is the main danger. #8 Thirsty Mach must be sick of the sight of Gedlee as run 2nd to him 3 times and find it hard to reverse that trend from this gate. Only other hope is #9 Lugovoi Leis who will get a cheap run from the draw. They look better than the rest but it is a very good race and nearly every runner could sneak a place with some luck
Ratings 5/4/8,9/3/1,11,12,13
Race 6
1 King For A Day 15
2 Antheas Angel 5
3 Minkko scr
4 Light The Lantern 26
5 Balencia 8
6 Still Royal 13
7 Next Brigade 26
8 Currynroses 9
-----------------------
9 Ontick 11
10 The Musics Over 3.5
11 Bad Boy Vinny 15
12 Cancellara 15
13 El Jays Maverick 21
#10 The Musics Over has had no luck at all recently and this looks very winnable, #2 Antheas Angel has improved 100 yards in recent starts and if found the front would be mighty hard to run down. #5 Balencia is very unreliable but could win this at her best and there are a host of other chances in the race given the right run in transit
Ratings 10/2/5,6,8,9/1,11,12,13
Race 7
1 Redside Shrek 13
2 Alla Breve 21
3 Sky Tower 9
4 Gettysburg Address 26
5 Winjammer 51
6 Alby Albert 21
7 Shez Ryleymak scr
8 Cosmic Under Fire 6.5
-------------------------
9 Yuschenko Leis 11
10 Charleys Dream 2.3
11 Our Sir Jeckyl 5
Super race and I don't like mile races as a rule when the favs are drawn out the back but just look better than them in this instance. #10 Charleys Dream has jumped out of the ground since being claimed by the Braun camp and actually draws quite well behind the 2 who has gatespeed so should settle quite handy. #11 Our Sir Jeckyl wasn't overly impressive last time out to did break gear in the run and will be storming home late. Pretty sure one of those two will win but of the rest #3 Sky Tower is tough and races on the speed, #8 Cosmic Under Fire draws awkwardly but reckon they might press forward which is against his normal pattern but there isn't a ton of gatespeed under him and if he got across cheaply would make it mighty tough for those out the back. #9 Yuschenko Leis is flying but the draw makes it very tough so will need luck. Good even field racing over a mile trip means its very hard to predict and the only horse with no hope is #5 Winjammer
Ratings 10/11/3,8/9/1,2,4,6
Race 8
1 Nobeer Nocheer 1.33
2 Murillo Bromac 5
3 Paloona 34
4 Topup 11
5 Forty Two Grand 26
6 Gracie Hart 11
#1 Nobeer Nocheer has charged through the classes this time in and looks close to a good thing here as draws to lead and is extremely tough, #2 Murillo Bromac was pretty good first up when the driver went way too early and looks a lock for the quinella if drops onto the favs back at start. #4 Topup is probably the only one who could trouble the fav for the front but she goes way better when driven cold and will be around the placings. Of the rest, #6 Gracie Hart had every possible hope when won last time and going to find it much harder from this draw
Ratings 1/2/4/6
Race 9
1 Rock The Pocket scr
2 Bajardo River 5.5
3 Mighty Myf 34
4 Sameas Maz 17
5 Cindys Babe scr
6 Little Miss Madam 3.8
7 Monicas Notch 11
8 Susanne Jennifer 6
9 Pearls From Heaven 2.5
10 Big Town Babe scr
Race has been decimated by scratchings which leaves me with #9 Pearls From Heaven as a clear top pick as has raced against much better than these and the small field really suits. #6 Little Miss Madam is also going okay and looks the main danger and #2 Bajardo River must be included as looks the leader. #8 Susanne Jennifer is the query as has beaten far better fields than this so monitor betting with her. Only other chance is #7 Monicas Notch
Ratings 9/6/2,8/7
Race 10
1 Little Bluejeans 51
2 Mick Armalive 2
3 Barooga Billy 2
4 Go Go Cisco 51
5 Call Me James 17
6 Silent Jim 13
7 Charlie Grattan 51
Have to put my hand up and say I have no idea with only 2 winning hopes and both are almost impossible to assess. #2 Mick Armalive is first up from NZ, has trialled well and gets Gareth so if forced to pick one would go with it. However, #3 Barooga Billy is resuming from an 18 mth spell and looked a star in the making as a young horse and has trialled well also. Put it this way, if either of the favs were scratched the winner would pay $1.04 as there is nothing else of even half quality in the race
Ratings 2/3/6/5
R4#2 Maggie Kennedy
R5#5 Gedlee
R8#1 Nobeer Nocheer
Outside of them
Best Bet
R6#10 The Musics Over - hoping to get $3.50+
Best Exotic
R8 - quinella 1,2 (looks a good bet actually and be very happy with black figures)
Race 1
1 Buddy Beauty scr
2 Macasaol Magic 11
3 Inchbyinch 8
4 Seymour Gold 51
5 Willie Winalot 17
6 Honest Art 15
7 Riverina Chelsea 3.5
8 Karalta Lady 11
--------------------------
9 El Jays Modeena 15
10 Rubys Life 21
11 Saab Quality 5
12 Cardinal Dreamer 17
13 Peace Chief 21
Initially found this race very hard to assess but quietly confident that either the filly #7 Riverina Chelsea or the colt #11 Saab Quality will win the race and have actually given the filly the edge even from the draw. Others with a chance are #3 Inchbyinch who looks the leader, #8 Karalta Lady who has drawn the car park and need luck and you have to include numbers 5,6,9,10,12,13 in exotics. A very interesting runner is #2 Macasaol Magic whose form is average but looking at the totes earlier was $1.20 with $2300 in the win pool which is a decent bet in Tassie so has to be respected on that score alone
Ratings 7/11/3/2,5,6,8,9,10,12,13
Race 2
1 Scottys Jewel 41
2 Monita Em 67
3 Codie Karalta scr
4 Bettors Express 6
5 Apache River 3.5
6 Wundababe 13
7 Bettor Draw 8
8 Johnnyace 17
---------------------
9 Modern Judge 3.5
10 Karalta Wizard 5
Don't know where to start here as #3 was one of my better bets on the card. #5 Apache River wasn't overly impressive at first start but form has stood up okay and looks the leader so has to go on top, #9 Modern Judge draws awfully but with any luck at all should probably win. #10 Karalta Wizard is very one paced but always thereabouts and of the rest #4 Bettors Express looked a little unlucky last time but did get a dream run and #7 Bettor Draw won an average race at first start. Even #6 Wundababe ran a cheeky race last time
Ratings 5,9/4,10/7/6
Race 3
1 Sophies Pleasure 13
2 Southern Playmate 7
3 Play Time Lady 34
4 Duart Castle 34
5 Loaded To Run 3.5
6 Billabong Bertie 2.5
7 Jonzaak 4.5
The barrier draw has opened this race up a little with the 3 main fancies drawing wide. #6 Billabong Bertie is an enigmatic beast who looks a star one day and a dud the next. Couldn't have him at the price but if he produced his best would beat these. #5 Loaded To Run is no star but very honest and will be around the mark. I blackbooked #7 Jonzaak last time making ground out wide in a 28.1 final qtr so might be the value. #1 Sophies Pleasure is as honest as they come but rarely wins and #2 Southern Playmate has won her past two starts in inferior fields and had the run of the race both times so might find this tougher
Ratings 6/5,7/1,2
Race 4
1 Modern Lobell 21
2 Maggie Kennedy 1.25
3 Why Take Time 101
4 Blackportnlace 101
5 Levina Leis 5
6 No Time To Dream 101
7 Spirited Ruler 101
8 Ell Ess Babe 13
-----------------------
9 Safina Leis 17
10 Sarah Roland 67
#2 Maggie Kennedy has dominated the 3YO fillies races this year and from this draw looks unbeatable. #5 Levina Leis is not far behind ability wise but draw makes it tough as will have to sit outside Maggie. The only other hopes have both drawn badly in #8 Ell Ess Babe and #9 Safina Leis. #1 Modern promise draws to get a gun run behind the fav and isn't the worst so a good place hope. They rate miles clear of the rest and be very surprised if they don't run the first four
Ratings 2/5/8,9/1
Race 5
1 Cardinal Tucker 26
2 Glenfern Cruiser 41
3 Maybe Doc 17
4 Jay Bardon 9
5 Gedlee 1.5
6 Cardinal Dreamer scr
7 Jonny Red Neat scr
8 Thirsty Mach 13
------------------------
9 Lugovoi Leis 13
10 Anoptomist 101
11 Enchanted Heart 21
12 Its A Hoot 34
13 Iden Justasmyrk 34
A very good race this for the 3YOs. #5 Gedlee is a budding star and can see no reason why he won't continue on his winning way and whilst no certainty to lead he can do it tough as well. #4 Jay Bardon is the one who looks likely to get a great run so is the main danger. #8 Thirsty Mach must be sick of the sight of Gedlee as run 2nd to him 3 times and find it hard to reverse that trend from this gate. Only other hope is #9 Lugovoi Leis who will get a cheap run from the draw. They look better than the rest but it is a very good race and nearly every runner could sneak a place with some luck
Ratings 5/4/8,9/3/1,11,12,13
Race 6
1 King For A Day 15
2 Antheas Angel 5
3 Minkko scr
4 Light The Lantern 26
5 Balencia 8
6 Still Royal 13
7 Next Brigade 26
8 Currynroses 9
-----------------------
9 Ontick 11
10 The Musics Over 3.5
11 Bad Boy Vinny 15
12 Cancellara 15
13 El Jays Maverick 21
#10 The Musics Over has had no luck at all recently and this looks very winnable, #2 Antheas Angel has improved 100 yards in recent starts and if found the front would be mighty hard to run down. #5 Balencia is very unreliable but could win this at her best and there are a host of other chances in the race given the right run in transit
Ratings 10/2/5,6,8,9/1,11,12,13
Race 7
1 Redside Shrek 13
2 Alla Breve 21
3 Sky Tower 9
4 Gettysburg Address 26
5 Winjammer 51
6 Alby Albert 21
7 Shez Ryleymak scr
8 Cosmic Under Fire 6.5
-------------------------
9 Yuschenko Leis 11
10 Charleys Dream 2.3
11 Our Sir Jeckyl 5
Super race and I don't like mile races as a rule when the favs are drawn out the back but just look better than them in this instance. #10 Charleys Dream has jumped out of the ground since being claimed by the Braun camp and actually draws quite well behind the 2 who has gatespeed so should settle quite handy. #11 Our Sir Jeckyl wasn't overly impressive last time out to did break gear in the run and will be storming home late. Pretty sure one of those two will win but of the rest #3 Sky Tower is tough and races on the speed, #8 Cosmic Under Fire draws awkwardly but reckon they might press forward which is against his normal pattern but there isn't a ton of gatespeed under him and if he got across cheaply would make it mighty tough for those out the back. #9 Yuschenko Leis is flying but the draw makes it very tough so will need luck. Good even field racing over a mile trip means its very hard to predict and the only horse with no hope is #5 Winjammer
Ratings 10/11/3,8/9/1,2,4,6
Race 8
1 Nobeer Nocheer 1.33
2 Murillo Bromac 5
3 Paloona 34
4 Topup 11
5 Forty Two Grand 26
6 Gracie Hart 11
#1 Nobeer Nocheer has charged through the classes this time in and looks close to a good thing here as draws to lead and is extremely tough, #2 Murillo Bromac was pretty good first up when the driver went way too early and looks a lock for the quinella if drops onto the favs back at start. #4 Topup is probably the only one who could trouble the fav for the front but she goes way better when driven cold and will be around the placings. Of the rest, #6 Gracie Hart had every possible hope when won last time and going to find it much harder from this draw
Ratings 1/2/4/6
Race 9
1 Rock The Pocket scr
2 Bajardo River 5.5
3 Mighty Myf 34
4 Sameas Maz 17
5 Cindys Babe scr
6 Little Miss Madam 3.8
7 Monicas Notch 11
8 Susanne Jennifer 6
9 Pearls From Heaven 2.5
10 Big Town Babe scr
Race has been decimated by scratchings which leaves me with #9 Pearls From Heaven as a clear top pick as has raced against much better than these and the small field really suits. #6 Little Miss Madam is also going okay and looks the main danger and #2 Bajardo River must be included as looks the leader. #8 Susanne Jennifer is the query as has beaten far better fields than this so monitor betting with her. Only other chance is #7 Monicas Notch
Ratings 9/6/2,8/7
Race 10
1 Little Bluejeans 51
2 Mick Armalive 2
3 Barooga Billy 2
4 Go Go Cisco 51
5 Call Me James 17
6 Silent Jim 13
7 Charlie Grattan 51
Have to put my hand up and say I have no idea with only 2 winning hopes and both are almost impossible to assess. #2 Mick Armalive is first up from NZ, has trialled well and gets Gareth so if forced to pick one would go with it. However, #3 Barooga Billy is resuming from an 18 mth spell and looked a star in the making as a young horse and has trialled well also. Put it this way, if either of the favs were scratched the winner would pay $1.04 as there is nothing else of even half quality in the race
Ratings 2/3/6/5
Harness Tips - Saturday June 12
ALBION PARK
R1#2 Tiamour, ran quickest lead time of the night last week and just got touched off on the line and drops back to mile here. Pole horse might be a bit of value for the quinella as going okay. Other chances to 3,4,8,9. 3 horse had a huge wrap on him but looks a flat track bully to me who looks great when things go his way and struggles when they don't
Tragedy Beaten, declared on all race and fav nailed him on the line
R2#1 Jollygood Gent, went super last week in a fence dominated race. Goes best with a sit but does have good gatespeed so can kick up and then decide to hand up or not. Reckon the only horse he would hand up to is #6 Arma Fake so play that quinella for something as well
Smashed em, $1.50
BENDIGO
R2#6 Michael Thomas, last 3 runs have been enormous. Was going to win easily 2 starts back when broke and then went a ton better than main danger here in #5 in the same race last time despite not beating it home. If it trots all the way it wins in my opinion, I don't regard him as a risky trotter either for some reason despite breaking at past 2 starts - he was going too quick out wide at Ballarat which doesn't have a lot of camber and see plenty of pacers do the same and he ran up the back of the leader at Melton when it handed up at the bell. Expect to see him in the death this time as a very thin race with only 5,6 and to a lesser degree #8 any hope of winning
Galloped, lost 50 and got beaten 5 - enough said
Best Bet is Jollygood Gent
R1#2 Tiamour, ran quickest lead time of the night last week and just got touched off on the line and drops back to mile here. Pole horse might be a bit of value for the quinella as going okay. Other chances to 3,4,8,9. 3 horse had a huge wrap on him but looks a flat track bully to me who looks great when things go his way and struggles when they don't
Tragedy Beaten, declared on all race and fav nailed him on the line
R2#1 Jollygood Gent, went super last week in a fence dominated race. Goes best with a sit but does have good gatespeed so can kick up and then decide to hand up or not. Reckon the only horse he would hand up to is #6 Arma Fake so play that quinella for something as well
Smashed em, $1.50
BENDIGO
R2#6 Michael Thomas, last 3 runs have been enormous. Was going to win easily 2 starts back when broke and then went a ton better than main danger here in #5 in the same race last time despite not beating it home. If it trots all the way it wins in my opinion, I don't regard him as a risky trotter either for some reason despite breaking at past 2 starts - he was going too quick out wide at Ballarat which doesn't have a lot of camber and see plenty of pacers do the same and he ran up the back of the leader at Melton when it handed up at the bell. Expect to see him in the death this time as a very thin race with only 5,6 and to a lesser degree #8 any hope of winning
Galloped, lost 50 and got beaten 5 - enough said
Best Bet is Jollygood Gent
Friday, June 11, 2010
Friday Tips - June 11, 2010
8 win bets and 2 quinellas - will start only posting what I like and will keep track based on a 1 unit investment for all tips
Hamilton
R5#9 Atlas Alliance
Melton
R2#10 Kaptin Bly
R8#6 Hung Jury, keen on 1,6 quinella as well as look the leader/leaders back
Redcliffe
R2#5 Abermain
Harold Park
R7#9 Madame Lily
Gloucester Park
R2 - quinella 8,9
R5#6 Tsunami Lombo
R7#5 Ima Spicey Lombo
R10#9 Gransagenic
Hamilton
R5#9 Atlas Alliance
Melton
R2#10 Kaptin Bly
R8#6 Hung Jury, keen on 1,6 quinella as well as look the leader/leaders back
Redcliffe
R2#5 Abermain
Harold Park
R7#9 Madame Lily
Gloucester Park
R2 - quinella 8,9
R5#6 Tsunami Lombo
R7#5 Ima Spicey Lombo
R10#9 Gransagenic
Thursday, June 10, 2010
My Favourite Horses
1. Sinbad Bay - undoubtedly my favourite by a long way but unlike most people who loved his guts and freakish ability over time, my love for the horse actually came from watching him lose lowly class races in Tassie. He was a rogue as a young horse and would regularly miss the start by half a lap and make up an enormous amount of ground which as an uneducated punter back then was a thrill to watch. Would not back him with $8 notes nowadays but back then it was a buzz even if he was costing me a fortune. He was also my first ever $1000 bet when a group of us flew over to Melbourne when having his first start with VJ Knight (can still recall he drew the pole and bookies opened him and one called Old Pebble 10/9 each of 2, needless to say that 10/9 didn't last long and he duly romped in and 3 weeks later won the Victoria Cup as an M1,C4 death seating). I am biased but had he not been crippled by injury he would have been the best pacer this country ever saw
2. Safari - another we never got to see the best of due to tendon injuries but I got to know a couple of the owners so always had a soft spot for him. Plus I love watching tough horses and he was as tough as they came
3. Vertical Horizon - best known as a claimer but was very good to me when first starting out on the punt, always seemed to win whenever I needed one. Will always have a soft spot for old Vertical, think I read that he was Jodi's favourite horse as well so I am sure he is enjoying his retirement
4. Master Musician - another injury plagues pacer (what is it with me and these horses???) who was competitive for an entire decade. I usually detest NZ horses but was a huge fan of the Master
5. Halyer - bought me my first decent car when he won the Australian Derby, had an unbelievable turn of speed and was cruel to see him beaten in the InterDom at Harold Park running 4th to Weona Warrior and climbing all over them up the straight
6. Franco Ice - tough as they came and any race he competed in was a great spectacle. Looking back now, the owner didn't do him many favours either as went through trainer after trainer
7. Prince Nijo - used to love this horse down in Tassie, think he won 11 of 12 before going to Melbourne where he got sick and was never the same horse again. He was as good as any young Tasmanian horse I ever saw and it was sad that the rest of the country didn't get to see it
8. Westburn Grant - was always the enemy with his battles with Sinbad but he won me over when I had a crack at the Melbourne InterDom and he got up at double figure odds
9. Almeta Boy - bit of a lovable rogue this bloke, had untapped ability but rarely produced it due to a few sheep being loose in the top paddock
10. Queen Of The World - should not even be mentioned in the same hemisphere as anything else on here but have a soft spot for her, the little grey mare got me $15K one night at Echuca then another $4k when she won the last at Shepparton one night. Only backed her 3 times as well so gotta love horses like that
Nothing against any of the greats like Blackie, Thorate, etc but they weren't favourites of mine. Blackie is still my biggest collect ever but strangely I didn't warm to him like some others. Must apologise to Jane Ellen for her non inclusion but have to cut a few but she was next in line
2. Safari - another we never got to see the best of due to tendon injuries but I got to know a couple of the owners so always had a soft spot for him. Plus I love watching tough horses and he was as tough as they came
3. Vertical Horizon - best known as a claimer but was very good to me when first starting out on the punt, always seemed to win whenever I needed one. Will always have a soft spot for old Vertical, think I read that he was Jodi's favourite horse as well so I am sure he is enjoying his retirement
4. Master Musician - another injury plagues pacer (what is it with me and these horses???) who was competitive for an entire decade. I usually detest NZ horses but was a huge fan of the Master
5. Halyer - bought me my first decent car when he won the Australian Derby, had an unbelievable turn of speed and was cruel to see him beaten in the InterDom at Harold Park running 4th to Weona Warrior and climbing all over them up the straight
6. Franco Ice - tough as they came and any race he competed in was a great spectacle. Looking back now, the owner didn't do him many favours either as went through trainer after trainer
7. Prince Nijo - used to love this horse down in Tassie, think he won 11 of 12 before going to Melbourne where he got sick and was never the same horse again. He was as good as any young Tasmanian horse I ever saw and it was sad that the rest of the country didn't get to see it
8. Westburn Grant - was always the enemy with his battles with Sinbad but he won me over when I had a crack at the Melbourne InterDom and he got up at double figure odds
9. Almeta Boy - bit of a lovable rogue this bloke, had untapped ability but rarely produced it due to a few sheep being loose in the top paddock
10. Queen Of The World - should not even be mentioned in the same hemisphere as anything else on here but have a soft spot for her, the little grey mare got me $15K one night at Echuca then another $4k when she won the last at Shepparton one night. Only backed her 3 times as well so gotta love horses like that
Nothing against any of the greats like Blackie, Thorate, etc but they weren't favourites of mine. Blackie is still my biggest collect ever but strangely I didn't warm to him like some others. Must apologise to Jane Ellen for her non inclusion but have to cut a few but she was next in line
Harness Tips - Thursday June 10
Not keen on much all day but for what its worth I reckon this one will win
Ballarat
R7#2 Manwarra Kismet, led and walked when won first start so usually not a strong form reference those races but looks the leader again and Ballarat is a dynamite leaders track
a couple off the video that might run a race
R3#4 Hitemup, ran a really cheeky race last time out and if you get $15 or so might be worth a small investment
R6#1 No Matter What, disgraceful drive last time when left the back of the odds on fav to come 3 wide at the bell. Demmler jumps on today and whilst I'm not sure if it can hold the front is going well and won't be far away
Ballarat
R7#2 Manwarra Kismet, led and walked when won first start so usually not a strong form reference those races but looks the leader again and Ballarat is a dynamite leaders track
a couple off the video that might run a race
R3#4 Hitemup, ran a really cheeky race last time out and if you get $15 or so might be worth a small investment
R6#1 No Matter What, disgraceful drive last time when left the back of the odds on fav to come 3 wide at the bell. Demmler jumps on today and whilst I'm not sure if it can hold the front is going well and won't be far away
Myth of the "One-One"
Over the past couple of decades there has been a number of changes within Harness Racing - most for the better but without doubt the biggest fallacy still in existence is that the "one out/one back" position is the best place to be in the run.
Since the inception of cambered 1000m tracks, races are run entirely differently than previously in that the first half is usually around 64 and they dash home. This pattern inevitably leads to a 3 wide train coming at the bell so the horse in the one/one either has to pull 3 wide without cover at bell or risk being pocketed and neither scenario is too inviting to me. Plus with the combination of cambered tracks and lighter sulkies horses don't drop off when caught wide as they used to.
However, if you did a straw poll of mug punters in a TAB most love their horses settling there and continually hear them screaming blue murder when a horse gives up that spot. I don't have the figures but I would imagine that more races are won by the following positions - leader, leader's back, death, 3 pegs, 3 wide with cover so what is the great attraction when I am positive that there are 5 more advantageous positions to be in during a race. I will grant that its a great spot to be if you are guaranteed that the death horse will run past the leader or the 3 wide horse will drop off at the 300 but there are no guarantees and hence I hate being on horses in the one/one as a rule.
Back in the days of 800m tracks when speed was on most of the way anything out wide usually dropped dead at the 400 so it was position "A" in that it gave you the option of having first crack at the leaders but we don't live in that age anymore any drivers and punters need to get their heads around that.
Just annoys me when I hear racecallers go into raptures when a driver positions a horse one/one.
Since the inception of cambered 1000m tracks, races are run entirely differently than previously in that the first half is usually around 64 and they dash home. This pattern inevitably leads to a 3 wide train coming at the bell so the horse in the one/one either has to pull 3 wide without cover at bell or risk being pocketed and neither scenario is too inviting to me. Plus with the combination of cambered tracks and lighter sulkies horses don't drop off when caught wide as they used to.
However, if you did a straw poll of mug punters in a TAB most love their horses settling there and continually hear them screaming blue murder when a horse gives up that spot. I don't have the figures but I would imagine that more races are won by the following positions - leader, leader's back, death, 3 pegs, 3 wide with cover so what is the great attraction when I am positive that there are 5 more advantageous positions to be in during a race. I will grant that its a great spot to be if you are guaranteed that the death horse will run past the leader or the 3 wide horse will drop off at the 300 but there are no guarantees and hence I hate being on horses in the one/one as a rule.
Back in the days of 800m tracks when speed was on most of the way anything out wide usually dropped dead at the 400 so it was position "A" in that it gave you the option of having first crack at the leaders but we don't live in that age anymore any drivers and punters need to get their heads around that.
Just annoys me when I hear racecallers go into raptures when a driver positions a horse one/one.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Harness Tips - Wednesday June 9
Cranbourne
R3#8 Diamond Fantasy - Disgraceful UNP
Devonport
(all of these won't be too short and all bar race 5 have a good chance of leading which puts them right in the mix around Devonport). Pretty average meeting though and not confident enough to declare anything. Forced to pick a best bet would go Prince Niadh or Glenwood Jasper
R2#2 Prince Niadh - 1st bolted in $2.70
R3#2 Seascape Artiste - legless UNP, last time I listen to mail from the trials
R4#3 Glenwood Jasper - 1st smashed em $1.80, $3.20 Betfair
R5#9 The Musician - sit/sprint dog who didn't get the run he needed UNP
R7#1 Good To Be Holme - 1st $6.40, doubt it will ever win again though
R8#1 Rocky Creek - UNP, absolutely no hope when it didn't lead as goes the same speed all day
Got some good mail for #8 in race 8 as well so also playing exotics around 1,3,8
Got nothing
R3#8 Diamond Fantasy - Disgraceful UNP
Devonport
(all of these won't be too short and all bar race 5 have a good chance of leading which puts them right in the mix around Devonport). Pretty average meeting though and not confident enough to declare anything. Forced to pick a best bet would go Prince Niadh or Glenwood Jasper
R2#2 Prince Niadh - 1st bolted in $2.70
R3#2 Seascape Artiste - legless UNP, last time I listen to mail from the trials
R4#3 Glenwood Jasper - 1st smashed em $1.80, $3.20 Betfair
R5#9 The Musician - sit/sprint dog who didn't get the run he needed UNP
R7#1 Good To Be Holme - 1st $6.40, doubt it will ever win again though
R8#1 Rocky Creek - UNP, absolutely no hope when it didn't lead as goes the same speed all day
Got some good mail for #8 in race 8 as well so also playing exotics around 1,3,8
Got nothing
Reasons for the Decline of Racing
Just read a very interesting blog post in the New York Times online by Bennett Liebman regarding the "Reasons for the Decline of Horse Racing" and whilst it was thoroughbred related, it certainly hits home with Harness Racing as well and well worth a read.
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/reasons-for-the-decline-of-horse-racing/
Nearly every point listed (all 15 of them) is relevant with Harness Racing but there were a couple of things that weren't touched upon that I will also add.
Bigger tracks produce better racing:
This is a total crock, by far the best races to watch are the Gloucester Park mobile races where they tend to run from the start yet they probably have the worst Metro track in Australia. Sure, I will grant that the best racing I have seen this year has been a couple of the Group meetings at Menangle but apart from those meetings it is the most boring place ever to watch a race. It all comes down to the quality and WA is the strongest state by far currently, other states don't simply offer racing opportunities for M2 or better horses and they are the ones the punters have built up some affinity with over time. Will also give Queensland a pass in regards to this issue as well.
In other words, stop spending millions on new tracks and instead put some money back in to retain the quality horses by having races they can go round in instead of being continually sold to WA or the USA.
Bigger fields create higher turnover:
Administrators get sucked in by a statistical anomoly that I will explain - as a rule, all races with 12 runners in the field are stand starts and its the impulse punter that makes the difference here. SKY will generally cross to a race whilst the mobile is scoring up so the impulse punters get about 20 seconds to get their bet on but in stand starts, getting 12 horses to stand still and get all the tapes across can take a couple of minutes but SKY always crosses early when the lines first start to take shape so instead of 20 seconds to bet they get around 120 seconds. That is where the extra revenue comes from guys, not the increase in field sizes. Just watch how much the win pool in a mobile race increases when there is a false start.
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/reasons-for-the-decline-of-horse-racing/
Nearly every point listed (all 15 of them) is relevant with Harness Racing but there were a couple of things that weren't touched upon that I will also add.
Bigger tracks produce better racing:
This is a total crock, by far the best races to watch are the Gloucester Park mobile races where they tend to run from the start yet they probably have the worst Metro track in Australia. Sure, I will grant that the best racing I have seen this year has been a couple of the Group meetings at Menangle but apart from those meetings it is the most boring place ever to watch a race. It all comes down to the quality and WA is the strongest state by far currently, other states don't simply offer racing opportunities for M2 or better horses and they are the ones the punters have built up some affinity with over time. Will also give Queensland a pass in regards to this issue as well.
In other words, stop spending millions on new tracks and instead put some money back in to retain the quality horses by having races they can go round in instead of being continually sold to WA or the USA.
Bigger fields create higher turnover:
Administrators get sucked in by a statistical anomoly that I will explain - as a rule, all races with 12 runners in the field are stand starts and its the impulse punter that makes the difference here. SKY will generally cross to a race whilst the mobile is scoring up so the impulse punters get about 20 seconds to get their bet on but in stand starts, getting 12 horses to stand still and get all the tapes across can take a couple of minutes but SKY always crosses early when the lines first start to take shape so instead of 20 seconds to bet they get around 120 seconds. That is where the extra revenue comes from guys, not the increase in field sizes. Just watch how much the win pool in a mobile race increases when there is a false start.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Harness Tips - Tuesday May 8
No best bets but taking a few on spec here
Bendigo
Race 1
6.35pm:
R1#1 Eisenheim, first starter for the Douglas camp and its trial looks ordinary on paper but was badly held up and made up about 15 metres over the last 200 so obviously should have won the workout clearly. Just hope it holds its position early to take advantage of the draw as mile races at Kilmore are that fence dominated it isn't funny. #5 The System Stride has also trialled extremely well so is a huge watch and whilst #6 Modern Girl has been disappointing she does have exceptional gatespeed which is a huge bonus over this trip
Suggested bet, something small on #1 and a tri 1,5/1,5,6,8/field
Both pretty average the first starters
Race 2
7.00pm:
Play multiples around 1,6,8 as look only three hopes
Suggested Bet - standout quinella 1/6,8
6 beat 1, quin a measly $4.10
Gloucester Park
Blackbooked this one at previous start but looks as if it will be short but thought I would post it anyway
R3#1 Bettors Ace, blew the start and made up a ton of ground against some very good ones last time and should account for this lot. Price the worry
Price wasn't the worry, ability was, led and UNP @ $1.40 .....
Bendigo
Race 1
6.35pm:
R1#1 Eisenheim, first starter for the Douglas camp and its trial looks ordinary on paper but was badly held up and made up about 15 metres over the last 200 so obviously should have won the workout clearly. Just hope it holds its position early to take advantage of the draw as mile races at Kilmore are that fence dominated it isn't funny. #5 The System Stride has also trialled extremely well so is a huge watch and whilst #6 Modern Girl has been disappointing she does have exceptional gatespeed which is a huge bonus over this trip
Suggested bet, something small on #1 and a tri 1,5/1,5,6,8/field
Both pretty average the first starters
Race 2
7.00pm:
Play multiples around 1,6,8 as look only three hopes
Suggested Bet - standout quinella 1/6,8
6 beat 1, quin a measly $4.10
Gloucester Park
Blackbooked this one at previous start but looks as if it will be short but thought I would post it anyway
R3#1 Bettors Ace, blew the start and made up a ton of ground against some very good ones last time and should account for this lot. Price the worry
Price wasn't the worry, ability was, led and UNP @ $1.40 .....
Monday, June 7, 2010
My Betting Technique
Obviously we all like to bet in different ways and need to find the optimum way to maximise profits and for me it is as follows:
- Only bet in races where I am confident of my speed map
- Place a lot of exotic bet types on those races, eg; trifectas, quinellas
- Only back individual horses that I deem are value based on my ratings
- Adhere to a constant staking level
Would no doubt be very different to a lot of people out there but it works for me. I find that if I get the speed map right and bet around who is going to lead, sit leader's back, etc that I really clean up on exotics but I really need to maximise those races as clearly there is a fair chance of getting nothing when I get it wrong.
I leave stand start and trotters races alone as too many variables and rarely back any horse from a 2nd row draw as I like to back horses who make their own luck racing on the speed. Also do not bet at tracks like Mildura, Stawell and Ararat as a rule as find there are just too many cowboy drivers when they race at those venues.
As I said previously, there are a million different techniques out there and I have found that this is best for me.
Harness Racing Carnivals, where are they???
I truly believe that this is an issue that Harness Racing in all states need to address. With the exception of the Mildura Cup carnival who market their event extremely well, I cannot think of another successful carnival held anywhere in Australia and with all due respects to Mildura it shouldn't be leading the way on this front.
People need a reason to go to events nowadays, may sound a bit pathetic but its a fact. Even the Inter Dominion with no Wednesday night heat anymore means people tend to just go to the Grand Final as opposed to the full fortnight in years gone by.
I always thought the Hunter Cup was the perfect opportunity to do something when it was being run on a Sunday afternoon in that you could have a Metro class meeting on the Friday night, a standard country assessed meeting on the Saturday night and the big day on the Sunday afternoon. It is probably the one meeting all year that provides the greatest calibre of horse flesh all round as there is the Hunter Cup itself, the blue riband Victoria Derby and a Group 1 trotters race so punters get to see the best open class pacers and trotters plus the best 3 year olds from both sides of the Tasman. As a punter, I would jump at the opportunity to attend a meeting in this format and spend 3-4 days mixing with other Harness Racing folk and I am sure other people would flock from around the country to attend. The Hunter Cup has recently reverted back to a Saturday night and whilst it certainly is a great night's racing, that is all it is - a great night.
The gallops as usual get it right and I am not just talking about the obvious ones such as Cup week or the Sydney Easter carnival, I am more alluding to the success they have at places like Warrnambool, Magic Millions, Wagga and Albury who encourage people not only to attend on their big day but to travel and make a week of it. As a Harness Racing enthusiast, I am always envious that my galloping friends get the opportunity to attend these events.
I also believe that it would work well in places like the Gold Coast or Tasmania where people like to go for holidays so if you give them an excuse they will come but you cannot take people for idiots so you have to provide a decent product if you are to get people coming back in subsequent years.
The opportunity is there for the taking, it only needs a proactive club to take a risk that may result in huge long term benefits. Most Harness Racing committees however are comprised of people who were involved in the caper during the halcyon days of the 1960s and struggle to comprehend that we need to change with the times. The needs and wants of people have evolved over time, yet we still conduct harness meetings in exactly the same manner as we did half a century ago. The format needs to be addressed.
To use the words of Shoeless Joe Jackson from Field Of Dreams "If you build it, they will come".
People need a reason to go to events nowadays, may sound a bit pathetic but its a fact. Even the Inter Dominion with no Wednesday night heat anymore means people tend to just go to the Grand Final as opposed to the full fortnight in years gone by.
I always thought the Hunter Cup was the perfect opportunity to do something when it was being run on a Sunday afternoon in that you could have a Metro class meeting on the Friday night, a standard country assessed meeting on the Saturday night and the big day on the Sunday afternoon. It is probably the one meeting all year that provides the greatest calibre of horse flesh all round as there is the Hunter Cup itself, the blue riband Victoria Derby and a Group 1 trotters race so punters get to see the best open class pacers and trotters plus the best 3 year olds from both sides of the Tasman. As a punter, I would jump at the opportunity to attend a meeting in this format and spend 3-4 days mixing with other Harness Racing folk and I am sure other people would flock from around the country to attend. The Hunter Cup has recently reverted back to a Saturday night and whilst it certainly is a great night's racing, that is all it is - a great night.
The gallops as usual get it right and I am not just talking about the obvious ones such as Cup week or the Sydney Easter carnival, I am more alluding to the success they have at places like Warrnambool, Magic Millions, Wagga and Albury who encourage people not only to attend on their big day but to travel and make a week of it. As a Harness Racing enthusiast, I am always envious that my galloping friends get the opportunity to attend these events.
I also believe that it would work well in places like the Gold Coast or Tasmania where people like to go for holidays so if you give them an excuse they will come but you cannot take people for idiots so you have to provide a decent product if you are to get people coming back in subsequent years.
The opportunity is there for the taking, it only needs a proactive club to take a risk that may result in huge long term benefits. Most Harness Racing committees however are comprised of people who were involved in the caper during the halcyon days of the 1960s and struggle to comprehend that we need to change with the times. The needs and wants of people have evolved over time, yet we still conduct harness meetings in exactly the same manner as we did half a century ago. The format needs to be addressed.
To use the words of Shoeless Joe Jackson from Field Of Dreams "If you build it, they will come".
Vicbred 3yo final - Stewards Report
I occasionally get it right (not that it makes me feel good in this instance). Prior to the race, I made a point of emphasising two drivers who weren't fit to drive in a Group 1 race by the names of Mal Whiteford and Alex Douglas and whilst I hate to say I told you so ...............
Would like to think that this may be the catalyst for new drivers regulations to be implemented for Metro meetings but won't hold my breath as the same thing has been happening for years.
Stewards Report from the Group 1 Vicbred 3yo final
http://www.harness.org.au/stewards-reports-detail.cfm?mc=JV040610
RACE 5 – SKY RACING VICBRED SUPER SERIES (3YO COLTS & GELDINGS) FINAL (GROUP 1) (2240m MS)
Pre-race blood samples were taken from Jack Hall, Composed, Cuttheattitude and David Hercules.
Driver Mal Whiteford (Jack Hall) was spoken to advisedly for the manner in which he tightened Grins Rendition approaching the first turn.
Mr Whiteford was also questioned regarding his tactics adopted upon Jack Hall, particularly through the early stages. Mr Whiteford stated it was his intention to initially obtain the lead and surrender such to Cuttheattitude. Approaching the first turn, Mr Whiteford explained Jack Hall had a tendency to hang in resulting in Grins Rendition to his inside being tightened and Mr Whiteford having to correct Jack Hall on several occasions before he eventually crossing that runner. Having obtained the lead Mr Whiteford added despite his efforts, Jack Hall commenced to over race before ultimately surrendering the lead to the race favourite. The explanation of Mr Whiteford was noted.
Driver Alex Douglas was found guilty of a charge under the provisions of Rule 149(1) for failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures during the course of the race to ensure Machieve was given full opportunity to win or obtain the best possible placing in the field. Machieve raced forward from the start and into the first turn in a four wide position. Machieve continued to be driven forward three wide around the first turn where Mr Douglas continued to apply pressure to the leaders in an exceptionally quick lead-time until approximately the mile. Furthermore, from approximately the mile until approximately the 1300 metres, Mr Douglas failed to give Machieve any respite by permitting Machieve to race forward and pressure Cuttheattitude. Mr Douglas's tactics through the early and middle stages were detrimental to Machieve's chances and contributed to Machieve weakening over the latter stages of the race to be placed ninth, beaten 28 metres.
A post race veterinary examination of Machieve failed to reveal any abnormalities. The drivers licence of Mr Alex Douglas was suspended for a period of eight weeks with the penalty to commence midnight Friday 4 June 2010. In assessing penalty, the Panel took into account Mr Douglas' record, the circumstances and the Group 1 status of the race amongst other factors.
Composed raced three wide throughout after being unable to obtain a position in the running line.
Turning into the back straight on the final occasion, Palais Du Louvre hung out, contacted the sulky of Antsintapants and raced roughly.
Grins Rendition tired over the latter stages to be placed last beaten 82.6 metres.
Jack In Flight was held up in the early stages of the run to the finish.
Post-race swab samples were taken from the winner David Hercules
Would like to think that this may be the catalyst for new drivers regulations to be implemented for Metro meetings but won't hold my breath as the same thing has been happening for years.
Stewards Report from the Group 1 Vicbred 3yo final
http://www.harness.org.au/stewards-reports-detail.cfm?mc=JV040610
RACE 5 – SKY RACING VICBRED SUPER SERIES (3YO COLTS & GELDINGS) FINAL (GROUP 1) (2240m MS)
Pre-race blood samples were taken from Jack Hall, Composed, Cuttheattitude and David Hercules.
Driver Mal Whiteford (Jack Hall) was spoken to advisedly for the manner in which he tightened Grins Rendition approaching the first turn.
Mr Whiteford was also questioned regarding his tactics adopted upon Jack Hall, particularly through the early stages. Mr Whiteford stated it was his intention to initially obtain the lead and surrender such to Cuttheattitude. Approaching the first turn, Mr Whiteford explained Jack Hall had a tendency to hang in resulting in Grins Rendition to his inside being tightened and Mr Whiteford having to correct Jack Hall on several occasions before he eventually crossing that runner. Having obtained the lead Mr Whiteford added despite his efforts, Jack Hall commenced to over race before ultimately surrendering the lead to the race favourite. The explanation of Mr Whiteford was noted.
Driver Alex Douglas was found guilty of a charge under the provisions of Rule 149(1) for failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures during the course of the race to ensure Machieve was given full opportunity to win or obtain the best possible placing in the field. Machieve raced forward from the start and into the first turn in a four wide position. Machieve continued to be driven forward three wide around the first turn where Mr Douglas continued to apply pressure to the leaders in an exceptionally quick lead-time until approximately the mile. Furthermore, from approximately the mile until approximately the 1300 metres, Mr Douglas failed to give Machieve any respite by permitting Machieve to race forward and pressure Cuttheattitude. Mr Douglas's tactics through the early and middle stages were detrimental to Machieve's chances and contributed to Machieve weakening over the latter stages of the race to be placed ninth, beaten 28 metres.
A post race veterinary examination of Machieve failed to reveal any abnormalities. The drivers licence of Mr Alex Douglas was suspended for a period of eight weeks with the penalty to commence midnight Friday 4 June 2010. In assessing penalty, the Panel took into account Mr Douglas' record, the circumstances and the Group 1 status of the race amongst other factors.
Composed raced three wide throughout after being unable to obtain a position in the running line.
Turning into the back straight on the final occasion, Palais Du Louvre hung out, contacted the sulky of Antsintapants and raced roughly.
Grins Rendition tired over the latter stages to be placed last beaten 82.6 metres.
Jack In Flight was held up in the early stages of the run to the finish.
Post-race swab samples were taken from the winner David Hercules
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Hobart Harness Odds and Ratings
Best Bet
R4#6 Saab Quality
Best Value
R5#8 Domani Gem
Quaddie
6/4,8/1,2,3,8/field
Try to do markets to around 120% to fall in line with TAB odds as a value indicator
Race 1
1 Bymarjac 4.5
2 Bettors Express 11
3 Imperial Majesty3.8
4 Monita Em 67
5 Semose Twenty 3.5
6 Scottys Jewel 15
7 Wundababe 21
8 Woody Beours scr
9 Klebnikova Leis 4.5
Hard race to start the night with 4 clear top picks and all 4 have claims. #3 Imperial Majesty has raced in good fields from bad draws of late and looks suited, #5 Semose Twenty ran home well in a 28.6 closing split last time, #9 Klebnikova Leis blew the start last time and run was better than it looks on paper and #1 Bymarjac resumes and was placed in both starts before a spell but in pretty weak races but you have to respect from the draw
Ratings 3,5/9/1
Race 2
1 Jebs Xtreme 34
2 Red River Gee Gee 17
3 Sweetchillifilly 11
4 Flying Dubai 5.5
5 Sapphire Island 17
6 Underdog 2.3
7 Bertils Rocket 13
8 Liskens Gift 17
9 Bunjil Boy 34
10 Flight To Mikinos 5.5
Pretty thin race this with #6 Underdog looking very hard to beat, was extremely unlucky last time and has raced against far better horses than these. Have a healthy respect for the ex Victorian in Flight To Mikonos who has been chasing some good ones of late and will find this a lot easier. Only other winning hope is #4 Flying Dubai who is honest and won't be far away.
Ratings 6/10/4/2,3,5,7,8
Race 3
1 Go Go Cisco 41
2 Ashinaga 6
3 River Of Shadows scr
4 Deejay Bromac 15
5 Dreamon Donny 26
6 Strategic Miss 3.2
7 Justabrittmore scr
8 Broughton 5
9 Wizard Jones 3.5
10 Maracas Bay 26
11 Odins Angel Dust 21
Shocker of a race this highlighted by the fact that my top pick in #6 Strategic Miss is a 23 start maiden but ran a very good race last time and a repeat of that should see her winning, #9 Wizard Jones has been competitive with better horses and will go close here. Of the rest, #8 Broughton would blow these away if he recaptured his form of 12 months ago but going just fair at present and the only other winning hope is #2 Ashinaga
Ratings 6,9/2,8/field
Race 4
1 Mister Gunadoo 17
2 Modern Promise 67
3 Tzu Tzu Petals 15
4 Dundees Knife 15
5 Prisonbreak 4.5
6 Saab Quality 2.3
7 Safina Leis 4.5
8 Glenfern Cruiser 8
#6 Saab Quality has always looked a good horse at the trials and finally produced it at the races last time when he ran a cheeky 3rd to the best 3YOs in the state (Gedlee, Thirsty Mach). Has plenty of gatespeed and if he got over to lead here would just about be unbeatable. #5 Prisonbreak is a dour type who looks the only possible horse who may keep #6 out early and won't be far away. #7 Safina Leis was disgraceful last time but this is easier and has always raced best with a sit but draw makes it hard. #8 Glenfern Cruiser the only other possible chance
Ratings 6/5,7/8
Race 5
1 Southern Playmate 11
2 Phantom Jasper 8
3 Lomandra 21
4 Ontick 3.5
5 Guerrero 7
6 Duart Castle 13
7 Berezovsky Leis 8
8 Domani Gem 4
9 Bad Boy Vinny 9
Really liked the run of #8 Domani Gem last time as got hammered in front with every quarter sub 30 secs and just got nabbed late, obviously going to need luck from the draw but should be decent value. I have always believed that #4 Ontick is over-rated but is still a strong winning hope. Reckon one of those 2 will win but I concede place chances to every horse in the race
Ratings 8/4/5,7/field
Race 6
1 Billabong Bertie 6
2 King Of Bling 4
3 Cullens Angel 2.5
4 Forty Two Grand 17
5 Timesonyourside 26
6 Ronnie Rat 11
7 Camelots Raider 34
8 Secret Rendezvous 6.5
Hard race to assess as difficult to work out what is going to happen early with all of 1,2,3 having gatespeed. For that reason I am putting the claimer #8 Secret Rendezvous on top as draws to trail through well and might be the fresh horse late at a bit of value. #3 Cullens Angel is flying currently but goes best in front and not sure if she will lead today. #2 King Of Bling went okay behind a smart one at first Tassie start and will be competitive again from the draw. #1 Billabong Bertie is a C4 racing in a C6-7 race which is strange but from the draw is a chance
Ratings 3,8/2/1/6/4
Race 7
1 Touchwood Teeksta 9
2 November Twenty 9
3 Cats And Dogs 5
4 Pennys Dragon 7
5 Touchwood Bucksta 17
6 Crash Cart 41
7 Prince Planet 26
8 Twograndahand 8
9 Toucha Revenge 11
10 Glory Is Illusive 21
11 Unrivalled (1st Em) scr
12 Mickey Delahey 17
13 Paul Albert 51
14 Odins Constantine 9
15 Buddahs Best Mate 15
Don't know where to start with this race, stand start with 14 runners and nearly every runner some hope, envisage a ton of moves being made during the race which just makes it more difficult to work out. #4 Pennys Dragon is probably the best horse in the race but stand is a query with her plus has to be driven for luck, #3 Cats And Dogs is no star but does things right and whacks away, #2 November Twenty led and won its heat so a chance again and #14 Odins Constantine has to overcome the handicap but if they go mad he will be the one coming late
Ratings 4,14/2,3,8/1,9,12,15
Race 8
1 Bad Boy Bert 34
2 Our Sir Lew 3.5
3 Karoola Town 21
4 Cullens Count 4.5
5 Paddy My Boy 41
6 Still Royal 3.5
7 Pearls From Heaven 6
8 The Bullionaire 34
9 Titled 34
10 Ark West 13
11 Meandpop 41
Look to be only 4 winning hopes in this. #6 Still Royal is going very well but is going to need luck from the draw but if he gets any he should win, #2 Our Sir Lew did the job last week and reckon he wins again if he leads but not sure if he can as #4 Cullens Count can begin quickly and his last couple have been a return to form. #7 Southern Playmate had her birthday last time when led and walked in a mile race but won't get any favours from the draw here but can't totally dismiss. Only other possibility of an upset is #10 Ark West
Ratings 2,6/4/7/10
Race 9
1 Our Sir Jeckyl 1.3
2 Alby Albert 4
3 Bygone Era 41
4 Redside Shrek 13
Not the best race in the world to get out on with no value at all in the race. #1 Our Sir Jeckyl is probably the best horse in the state currently and will get a soft lead here and should be able to zip home. #2 Alby Albert returns to Tassie and looks certain to be trailing the fav and therefore probably ensure he runs 2nd and #4 Redside Shrek is lengths below his best currently but still will beat home the claimer Bygone Era who has been running last in $4K claimers which just about sums up his chances
Ratings 1/2/4
R4#6 Saab Quality
Best Value
R5#8 Domani Gem
Quaddie
6/4,8/1,2,3,8/field
Try to do markets to around 120% to fall in line with TAB odds as a value indicator
Race 1
1 Bymarjac 4.5
2 Bettors Express 11
3 Imperial Majesty3.8
4 Monita Em 67
5 Semose Twenty 3.5
6 Scottys Jewel 15
7 Wundababe 21
8 Woody Beours scr
9 Klebnikova Leis 4.5
Hard race to start the night with 4 clear top picks and all 4 have claims. #3 Imperial Majesty has raced in good fields from bad draws of late and looks suited, #5 Semose Twenty ran home well in a 28.6 closing split last time, #9 Klebnikova Leis blew the start last time and run was better than it looks on paper and #1 Bymarjac resumes and was placed in both starts before a spell but in pretty weak races but you have to respect from the draw
Ratings 3,5/9/1
Race 2
1 Jebs Xtreme 34
2 Red River Gee Gee 17
3 Sweetchillifilly 11
4 Flying Dubai 5.5
5 Sapphire Island 17
6 Underdog 2.3
7 Bertils Rocket 13
8 Liskens Gift 17
9 Bunjil Boy 34
10 Flight To Mikinos 5.5
Pretty thin race this with #6 Underdog looking very hard to beat, was extremely unlucky last time and has raced against far better horses than these. Have a healthy respect for the ex Victorian in Flight To Mikonos who has been chasing some good ones of late and will find this a lot easier. Only other winning hope is #4 Flying Dubai who is honest and won't be far away.
Ratings 6/10/4/2,3,5,7,8
Race 3
1 Go Go Cisco 41
2 Ashinaga 6
3 River Of Shadows scr
4 Deejay Bromac 15
5 Dreamon Donny 26
6 Strategic Miss 3.2
7 Justabrittmore scr
8 Broughton 5
9 Wizard Jones 3.5
10 Maracas Bay 26
11 Odins Angel Dust 21
Shocker of a race this highlighted by the fact that my top pick in #6 Strategic Miss is a 23 start maiden but ran a very good race last time and a repeat of that should see her winning, #9 Wizard Jones has been competitive with better horses and will go close here. Of the rest, #8 Broughton would blow these away if he recaptured his form of 12 months ago but going just fair at present and the only other winning hope is #2 Ashinaga
Ratings 6,9/2,8/field
Race 4
1 Mister Gunadoo 17
2 Modern Promise 67
3 Tzu Tzu Petals 15
4 Dundees Knife 15
5 Prisonbreak 4.5
6 Saab Quality 2.3
7 Safina Leis 4.5
8 Glenfern Cruiser 8
#6 Saab Quality has always looked a good horse at the trials and finally produced it at the races last time when he ran a cheeky 3rd to the best 3YOs in the state (Gedlee, Thirsty Mach). Has plenty of gatespeed and if he got over to lead here would just about be unbeatable. #5 Prisonbreak is a dour type who looks the only possible horse who may keep #6 out early and won't be far away. #7 Safina Leis was disgraceful last time but this is easier and has always raced best with a sit but draw makes it hard. #8 Glenfern Cruiser the only other possible chance
Ratings 6/5,7/8
Race 5
1 Southern Playmate 11
2 Phantom Jasper 8
3 Lomandra 21
4 Ontick 3.5
5 Guerrero 7
6 Duart Castle 13
7 Berezovsky Leis 8
8 Domani Gem 4
9 Bad Boy Vinny 9
Really liked the run of #8 Domani Gem last time as got hammered in front with every quarter sub 30 secs and just got nabbed late, obviously going to need luck from the draw but should be decent value. I have always believed that #4 Ontick is over-rated but is still a strong winning hope. Reckon one of those 2 will win but I concede place chances to every horse in the race
Ratings 8/4/5,7/field
Race 6
1 Billabong Bertie 6
2 King Of Bling 4
3 Cullens Angel 2.5
4 Forty Two Grand 17
5 Timesonyourside 26
6 Ronnie Rat 11
7 Camelots Raider 34
8 Secret Rendezvous 6.5
Hard race to assess as difficult to work out what is going to happen early with all of 1,2,3 having gatespeed. For that reason I am putting the claimer #8 Secret Rendezvous on top as draws to trail through well and might be the fresh horse late at a bit of value. #3 Cullens Angel is flying currently but goes best in front and not sure if she will lead today. #2 King Of Bling went okay behind a smart one at first Tassie start and will be competitive again from the draw. #1 Billabong Bertie is a C4 racing in a C6-7 race which is strange but from the draw is a chance
Ratings 3,8/2/1/6/4
Race 7
1 Touchwood Teeksta 9
2 November Twenty 9
3 Cats And Dogs 5
4 Pennys Dragon 7
5 Touchwood Bucksta 17
6 Crash Cart 41
7 Prince Planet 26
8 Twograndahand 8
9 Toucha Revenge 11
10 Glory Is Illusive 21
11 Unrivalled (1st Em) scr
12 Mickey Delahey 17
13 Paul Albert 51
14 Odins Constantine 9
15 Buddahs Best Mate 15
Don't know where to start with this race, stand start with 14 runners and nearly every runner some hope, envisage a ton of moves being made during the race which just makes it more difficult to work out. #4 Pennys Dragon is probably the best horse in the race but stand is a query with her plus has to be driven for luck, #3 Cats And Dogs is no star but does things right and whacks away, #2 November Twenty led and won its heat so a chance again and #14 Odins Constantine has to overcome the handicap but if they go mad he will be the one coming late
Ratings 4,14/2,3,8/1,9,12,15
Race 8
1 Bad Boy Bert 34
2 Our Sir Lew 3.5
3 Karoola Town 21
4 Cullens Count 4.5
5 Paddy My Boy 41
6 Still Royal 3.5
7 Pearls From Heaven 6
8 The Bullionaire 34
9 Titled 34
10 Ark West 13
11 Meandpop 41
Look to be only 4 winning hopes in this. #6 Still Royal is going very well but is going to need luck from the draw but if he gets any he should win, #2 Our Sir Lew did the job last week and reckon he wins again if he leads but not sure if he can as #4 Cullens Count can begin quickly and his last couple have been a return to form. #7 Southern Playmate had her birthday last time when led and walked in a mile race but won't get any favours from the draw here but can't totally dismiss. Only other possibility of an upset is #10 Ark West
Ratings 2,6/4/7/10
Race 9
1 Our Sir Jeckyl 1.3
2 Alby Albert 4
3 Bygone Era 41
4 Redside Shrek 13
Not the best race in the world to get out on with no value at all in the race. #1 Our Sir Jeckyl is probably the best horse in the state currently and will get a soft lead here and should be able to zip home. #2 Alby Albert returns to Tassie and looks certain to be trailing the fav and therefore probably ensure he runs 2nd and #4 Redside Shrek is lengths below his best currently but still will beat home the claimer Bygone Era who has been running last in $4K claimers which just about sums up his chances
Ratings 1/2/4
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