Race 1
1 TOP PREMIER 4.5
2 MISTER GUNADOO 6
3 ARK RAID 4.5
4 CINDYS BABE 4
5 MIGHTY MYF 51
6 OUR LAST KNIGHT 51
7 TIME TO PRAY 51
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM 17
10 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 9
Found this a hard race to start the night but ultimately settled on #4 Cindys Babe who has been knocking on the door for a while, she should press forward and find the death and won't shirk the task. Lacks really high speed but is a trier and looks a safe EW gamble. #3 Ark Raid has been chasing home some decent 3yo horses lately and is the obvious danger and #1 Top Premier has run some terrific races this time in and from this draw has an undeniable chance. Found it very difficult to split that trio actually as evidenced by my market but one of them should win on exposed form. There is a query on #2 Mister Gunadoo though who had pretty average form prior to a spell but is resuming with decent trial form and he has gatespeed so I have kept him safe also. Outside of them, #11 Rock The Pocket hasn't lived up to early promise and will find it hard from this draw over the mile trip but last run wasn't too bad, #9 Rosarium is a half sister to champion mare Shez Ryleymak but has only been fair at the trials and #10 Mistover Fizz has also disappointed of late but may run into a place from this trailing draw
Ratings 4/1,3/2/11/9,10
Race 2
1 BREATHING FIRE 6
2 MOIRA KITE 51
3 MONICAS NOTCH 34
4 LADY ELEANOR 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 15
6 JULIAS SONG NZ scr
7 TOUCHA REVENGE scr
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SANREOS 4.5
Looks a very suitable race for #8 Blacktie Affair to continue on her winning way, she has been a revelation since arriving in Tassie winning all 3 starts easily and whilst I am loathe to take short odds a sit/sprint horse she just looks to have too much speed for the rest. #9 Sanreos looms as the danger, she has been chasing Blacktie Affair home of late but been making mistakes and if she puts it together might cause a boilover. #1 Breathing Fire resumes, draws well and has gatespeed so must be included as must #5 Bajardo River who was okay last time as well. Pretty thin race actually
Ratings 8/9/1/5/field
Race 3
1 LOOK LOOK 13
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.8
3 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 3.5
4 EL JAYS MODEENA 17
5 INTHENICKOFTIME 34
6 ARTIFICE 6
7 LOADED BOMBER 34
#2 Biggernbettermax has always excelled when drawn to lead and should adopt that role here, he has disappointed a couple of times from back in the field but looks certain to find his favourite role here so looks a decent bet. #3 Brian Buster Brown is very hard to assess though, he didn't do much early on then in his 2 starts prior to a spell he won like a very good horse and has trialled well for his resumption to racing so is a huge watch. #6 Artifice will find this tougher than past few against her own age and sex but is a good sit/sprint mare and if the boys overdo it up front she may be the beneficiary. #1 Look Look was well driven to trail the fav and place last time and looks likely to get the same run again so is a legitimate place prospect. #4 El Jays Modeena always runs on in her races and with the small field is also in the mix for exotics
Ratings 2/3/6/1/4
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) 26
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 11
3 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 2.4
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 17
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 8
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5
7 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) 6
The Claimers start the Quaddie and looks to be a thin race. Have opted for #3 Waterloo Bay as top pick due mainly to his good stand start manners and if he pinged to the front here would be very hard to run down, He led up in FFA class in a stand last time and gave a bit of cheek before weakening late but the mile rate was 2.01.9 for a 2600m stand so it was way too hot for him and much better suited here. #6 Bonnie Wee Laddie is first up for Rohan Hillier and also has a good record in this class and the small field really helps his cause with his sit/sprint style. #7 Albert Jones is also well placed at this level but has a 20m handicap to overcome which makes it difficult for him but the small field will also assist him. #5 The Apprentice has improved at every Tassie run and wouldn't be a total surprise to see him bob up. #2 The Cherokee Chief has run a couple of cheeky races at times and if he got a soft lead may surprise
Ratings 3/6/7/5/2/4/1
Race 5
1 SAAB QUALITY 2.2
2 FLYING JASPER 26
3 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 17
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.8
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 BOOZY ROUGE 8
7 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 26
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 26
Looks a 2 horse race here with #1 Saab Quality being my top tip purely on barrier draw. If you look at the last run where the favourites went round in the same race, Barooga Billy broke at the bell and went back to last and still beat Saab Quality home so it may seem odd that I have Saab Quality on top. The reason is simple, he grows a leg when in front and just punches out even sectionals and is therefore mighty hard to run down. #4 Barooga Billy oozes talent though and whilst he gets it wrong at times is a very good horse when on song. One of that duo should win but I do respect #6 Boozy Rouge who was a tragedy beaten in Hobart last week in an easier race but he will find the line well. Both #3 Livin In Heaven and #5 Topotheclouds are racing okay without much luck and always place hopes and the rest also are distinct place possibilities as well given the right run. It just comes down to tempo and provided Saab Quality gets a softish lead it should be a 2 horse race (just hope Topotheclouds or Merlin Bromac don't gas him early though)
Ratings 1/4/6/3,5/2,7,8
Race 6
1 HARBHAJAN 1.6
2 BORNFIRST 13
3 EARL HICKEY 11
4 AS YOU WISH 11
5 CANCELLARA 11
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 17
7 RESURGENCE 17
8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 8
Don't know what to make of this race as most of the field are out of form or resuming which leaves #1 Harbhajan as a pronounced favourite but I do have a few concerns despite the cramped odds. He has been ODM in past 3 wins since arriving in Tassie so his gatespeed is a bit of an unknown factor and he has beaten some quite average fields but tht being said, he meets another average lot here. #8 Glory Is Illusive is 2nd pick but not much confidence in him from this draw either but only needs some luck to figure. #5 Cancellara was flying this time a year ago but has been quite disappointing at past few, he did pull pretty hard in a race where they staggered home in 32 last week so if he settles better might surprise. As I said previously, the rest are hard to assess, #2 Bornfirst seems to save its best for Devonport but does have some gatespeed which might be a concern for the fav, #3 Earl Hickey resumes and also has a touch of gatespeed, #4 As You Wish is an in and out type who needs things run to suit but has some ability, #6 An Eye For An Eye is another disappointing pacer who actually went up and contested the NSW Derby a while ago but form has slipped since then obviously but is back with his original trainer so might improve and #7 Resurgence is a big one pacer who resumes from a tough draw
Ratins 1/8/5/4/field
Race 7
1 MI MADEMOISELLE 13
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 KING ALBERT 9
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 21
5 WINGSOFANEAGLE 13
6 KING OF BLING 2.5
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 5
8 TOPUP 11
Pretty keen on #6 King Of Bling to lead and win here, has dazzling gatespeed and has recently led from barriers 7 and 8 so the draw isn't a huge concern and there doesn't look to be a legitimate death seat horse in the race to put any pressure on him so I envisage a soft run and should be getting home of that occurs. #7 The Musics Over resumes from a short let up after falling here last time when was going to be right in the finish but from this draw will be spotting King Of Bling a big start but is definitely the main danger with any luck in the run. #2 Pennys Dragon is an opportunist type who is always a chance if things fall her way, #3 King Albert hasn't had much luck in similar fields of late and draws okay here, #1 Mi Mademoiselle has the speed to retain the back of the fav so becomes a must for exotics if that occurs and #8 Topup isn't going as well as he was a month ago but is right up to this at his best. #5 Wingsofaneagle disappointed last campaign but resumes here and also has plenty of ability when right so monitor any confident betting moves with him. Even #4 November Twenty won at huge odds 2 starts back so can run into the minor money somewhere
Ratings 6/7/1,2,3/5,8/4
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ scr
2 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 13
3 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 26
4 IDEN NOSHOT 3.5
5 BREZHNEV LEIS 2.8
6 BETTOR DRAW 2.5
Good quality race this with 3 distinct chances and hard to sort out. #6 Bettor Draw had superior form during their 2yo campaigns but the other 3 chances really came on late in the season. Have still got #6 Bettor Draw on top as reckon he might even find the front as not a ton of speed under him and if he did lead would definitely be the one to beat. #s 4,5 ran the quinella here a fortnight ago and cleared out from the rest and that formline was enhanced with the 3rd placegetter in that race Hamish Sanz winning well in Hobart last week. #5 Brezhnev Leis won that race and looks an improving type and will probably go forward at some stage in the run, #4 Iden Noshot went a lot better than it appeared in that race coming wide and making ground in a 58.2 last half. #2 Odins Dragon Rider showed good speed last start and battled on fairly so might sneak a place with a cheap pegs run
Ratings 6/4,5/2
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Meeting Summary, Hobart August 29
No standout performances apart from some very interesting drives which is the polite way of saying it I think!!
Blackbookers from meeting
Chanceabet
Crash Cart
Sunrise Lady
Ulos
Lola Bromac
Run of The Night
Harley Fella, was 3 wide the trip and still won. The sectional times flattered him a tad as didn't go quickly and make him work but still a top effort
Drive of the Night
Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), didn't get sucked into following bolters out 3 wide who would have taken him nowhere and saved a ton of ground going through the middle which might have been the difference between winning and losing in the end
Also thought Natalee Emery's drive on Hamish Sanz was copybook (I might be a tad biased though as had a decent bet on him lol). It might not have looked pretty but she took off at exactly the right time and I couldn't have done it better sitting at home with a remote control but Todd's drive on Blacktie Affair won him the race so he gets the nod
Slaughter of the Night
Paul Williams (Iden Justasmyrk), funny to call something a slaughter when the horse wins by 6 metres but he got himself in a world of trouble due to a couple of poor decisions in the run and was very lucky to get out when he did. Classic case of a drivers mindset thinking he is beatifully placed in the "one/one" but he was behind the bolter of the field who was neither going to pressure the leader nor take him into the race so simply had to pull out when the 3 wide line came. Should have actually drove him aggressively and kept the death to be honest and would have won by 25 metres I reckon
Keith Toulmin on Thabela Brioso came a very close 2nd in this award
Odd Spot
Lead time in race 8 was posted as 32.3!!! If correct its the equivalent of running a 26.5 quarter and with due respect to the horses involved in the race, none of them would go that quickly downhill on rollerskates so is an obvious error in my eyes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 34.1 (very fast), first half 62.5, last half 61.6
First 4 over the line cleared out from the rest
Daytime Jerry (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed a good trip after that and won well
Ark Raid (2nd), funny run, seemed to race in patches but certainly has ability
King Of Jewels (3rd), very fast lead time probably told over the last 200 but still boxed on okay
Scarlett Blaze (4th), much improved run and the fact he beat the rest clearly is a good pointer going forward
Arkabe Jewel (6th), not a bad effort after an early error so best of the rest
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Race 2 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 35.1 (quicker than average), first half 62.9, last half 59.6
The 2 best horses ran the quinella and first 5 over the line clearly better than the rest
Special Gallenti (1st), good speed to lead and ran even sections and kept going to win. Deserved the win actually after previous 2 runs
Chanceabet (2nd), proved last time was no fluke as best run in the race again, did more work than any other runner and refused to lie down. One to follow
Gurrero (3rd), perfectly driven and whilst it wasn't his best form it was still a big improvement
Prettyboytoby (4th), had his chance and is always going to be running on I think
Crash Cart (5th), outside the first 2 over the line he was the best run in the race. Got a win in him soon
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Race 3 - 2YO, 1609m, mile rate 2.02.4, first half 62.9, last half 59.5
Best horse won the race and the first 2 finished well clear of the remainder
Hamish Sanz (1st), very reminiscent of his brother Mitchell Sanz in racing style, copybook drive and unlucky in some regards that the leader rolled off down the back and gave an inside run to 2nd horse or would have dead set bolted in
Sunrise Lady (2nd), every possible hope but a much improved run and beat the rest clearly. One to follow for sure when back against her own sex
Modern Angel (3rd), very good drive also and whilst no match for the first 2 did hold the rest easily
Gun Filly (4th), another good run after working early, has improved heaps at past couple
Flashy Icon (10th), disgraceful performance, first time she has led though and may improve next time with a sit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - C3-C4, 2090m, mile rate 2.05.6, lead time 38.5 (very slow), first half 64.8, last half 59.8
Winner 3 deep the trip so had plenty on them, sectional times make it hard to take much out of the race though
Harley Fella (1st), 3 wide the journey but they walked which helped but still too good
Mickey Delahey (2nd), led, walked and just went under but never going to get an easier run in front than he did here
New York Fella (3rd), looked a shade unlucky but did enjoy a soft run
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Race 5 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.5, lead time 35.4 (bit quicker than average), first half 64.3, last half 59.6
Winner simply too good and the first 5 over the line clearly superior to the rest
Iden Justasmyrk (1st), very good win, was better than it looked. Got shuffled back and would have been 12 metres off leader and 5 wide at the 400 yet rounded them up easily. He must have run 28.5 himself out wide. Might develop into a pretty handy horse this bloke
Cardinal Dreamer (2nd), did a bit of work to lead but soft run after that, still boxed on well and has a win in him when draws to get a soft lead
Safina Leis (3rd), good drive and an improved performace. Definitely proved that she is purely a sit/sprint mare
Innasbrook (4th), barrier killed his chances from the get go but stuck to task well
Peace Chief (5th), didn't enjoy much luck, barrier 1 didn't suit either as better when can grind home in his races. Forgive run
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Race 6 - C5+ Stand, 2579m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 78.8 (average), first half 62.4, last half 57.6
Winner simply in a different class, both placegetters went okay too
Cosmic Under Fire (1st), simply too classy, once he found the front it was a procession and not many horses will lose a race in Tassie running home 57.6
Jumpin Jack Jasper (2nd), another honest run in a stand, never seems to run a bad one. No match for winner though
Ulos (3rd), much improved run, probably the 2nd best run in the race actually as he was off the pegs and 3 wide in the quick last half. Might surprise at next couple
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Race 7 - C1-C2 Mares, 2090m, mile rate 1.59.7, lead time 34.3 (very fast), first half 60.9, last half 60.3
Went way too quickly here, overall mile rate of 1.59 and didn't break 60 the run home just emphasises the fact. First 2 horses cleared right out
Blacktie Affair (1st), very well driven and also relished the hot speed. Was going to win a long way from home. Has to be driven sit/sprint but is flying at present
Jet Black Flyer (2nd), another good drive and unlucky to run into a mre at the top of her game as beat the rest easily
Lola Bromac (3rd), very good run as did a bit of work in the quick early sectionals then kept coming in the straight. One to follow
Sanreos (4th), going very well this mare and another good tough run, might struggle to win until she gets back into the draw but isn't going to be far away in anything
Julias Song (5th), looked disappointing, never travelled the entire race and then just plugged home despite doing no work
Thabela Brioso (8th), suicidal tactics driving a 50/1 pop forward from gate 7 in super quick lead time then a 60 first half death seating. Did well in hindsight to only be beaten 28 metres so run was actually okay
Ashkalini (12th), started odds on and was gassed in front but capitulated very quickly, all her best form has been over mile trips though so was always going to be a query if she led and copped any pressure here. Be interesting to see how she performs next start but would imagine she would be driven with a sit
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Race 8 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 32.3 (is a record if correct but doubt it), first half 64.3, last half 62.2
Went very quickly early also and form is always going to be very suspect when the final quarter of a race is run in 32.2 so make of it what you will
Phantom Jasper (1st), enjoyed a perfect run in transit and kept plugging home
Still Royal (2nd), was the one I wanted to be on in the run and thought he should have won but just got outplugged
Cancellara (3rd), every hope but no match for first 2
Livin In Heaven (5th), fair effort after copping plenty of pressure
Boozy Rouge (6th), no doubt should have won easily as badly held up but remember that despite looking terribly unlucky they did stagger home which probably emphasised things
Safe And Smart (8th), overdid things early
Cullens Count (9th), forget he went around, went forward early then had to go back to last and also had a flat tyre in the run
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Race 9 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.04.9, lead time 36.6 (slower than average), first half 66.1, last half 59.5
Pretty average lot and long odds on pop led and walked which compressed the margins at the end
Denvers Boy (1st), didn't look too impressive, appeared to switch off in the run after getting it very easy. Probably went too slowly in hindsight
Look Look (2nd), good drive to trail the fav and kept coming in the straight
Woodland Chapel (3rd), ran home out wide as usual but might get up in one of these races shortly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blackbookers from meeting
Chanceabet
Crash Cart
Sunrise Lady
Ulos
Lola Bromac
Run of The Night
Harley Fella, was 3 wide the trip and still won. The sectional times flattered him a tad as didn't go quickly and make him work but still a top effort
Drive of the Night
Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), didn't get sucked into following bolters out 3 wide who would have taken him nowhere and saved a ton of ground going through the middle which might have been the difference between winning and losing in the end
Also thought Natalee Emery's drive on Hamish Sanz was copybook (I might be a tad biased though as had a decent bet on him lol). It might not have looked pretty but she took off at exactly the right time and I couldn't have done it better sitting at home with a remote control but Todd's drive on Blacktie Affair won him the race so he gets the nod
Slaughter of the Night
Paul Williams (Iden Justasmyrk), funny to call something a slaughter when the horse wins by 6 metres but he got himself in a world of trouble due to a couple of poor decisions in the run and was very lucky to get out when he did. Classic case of a drivers mindset thinking he is beatifully placed in the "one/one" but he was behind the bolter of the field who was neither going to pressure the leader nor take him into the race so simply had to pull out when the 3 wide line came. Should have actually drove him aggressively and kept the death to be honest and would have won by 25 metres I reckon
Keith Toulmin on Thabela Brioso came a very close 2nd in this award
Odd Spot
Lead time in race 8 was posted as 32.3!!! If correct its the equivalent of running a 26.5 quarter and with due respect to the horses involved in the race, none of them would go that quickly downhill on rollerskates so is an obvious error in my eyes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 34.1 (very fast), first half 62.5, last half 61.6
First 4 over the line cleared out from the rest
Daytime Jerry (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed a good trip after that and won well
Ark Raid (2nd), funny run, seemed to race in patches but certainly has ability
King Of Jewels (3rd), very fast lead time probably told over the last 200 but still boxed on okay
Scarlett Blaze (4th), much improved run and the fact he beat the rest clearly is a good pointer going forward
Arkabe Jewel (6th), not a bad effort after an early error so best of the rest
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 35.1 (quicker than average), first half 62.9, last half 59.6
The 2 best horses ran the quinella and first 5 over the line clearly better than the rest
Special Gallenti (1st), good speed to lead and ran even sections and kept going to win. Deserved the win actually after previous 2 runs
Chanceabet (2nd), proved last time was no fluke as best run in the race again, did more work than any other runner and refused to lie down. One to follow
Gurrero (3rd), perfectly driven and whilst it wasn't his best form it was still a big improvement
Prettyboytoby (4th), had his chance and is always going to be running on I think
Crash Cart (5th), outside the first 2 over the line he was the best run in the race. Got a win in him soon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - 2YO, 1609m, mile rate 2.02.4, first half 62.9, last half 59.5
Best horse won the race and the first 2 finished well clear of the remainder
Hamish Sanz (1st), very reminiscent of his brother Mitchell Sanz in racing style, copybook drive and unlucky in some regards that the leader rolled off down the back and gave an inside run to 2nd horse or would have dead set bolted in
Sunrise Lady (2nd), every possible hope but a much improved run and beat the rest clearly. One to follow for sure when back against her own sex
Modern Angel (3rd), very good drive also and whilst no match for the first 2 did hold the rest easily
Gun Filly (4th), another good run after working early, has improved heaps at past couple
Flashy Icon (10th), disgraceful performance, first time she has led though and may improve next time with a sit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - C3-C4, 2090m, mile rate 2.05.6, lead time 38.5 (very slow), first half 64.8, last half 59.8
Winner 3 deep the trip so had plenty on them, sectional times make it hard to take much out of the race though
Harley Fella (1st), 3 wide the journey but they walked which helped but still too good
Mickey Delahey (2nd), led, walked and just went under but never going to get an easier run in front than he did here
New York Fella (3rd), looked a shade unlucky but did enjoy a soft run
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.5, lead time 35.4 (bit quicker than average), first half 64.3, last half 59.6
Winner simply too good and the first 5 over the line clearly superior to the rest
Iden Justasmyrk (1st), very good win, was better than it looked. Got shuffled back and would have been 12 metres off leader and 5 wide at the 400 yet rounded them up easily. He must have run 28.5 himself out wide. Might develop into a pretty handy horse this bloke
Cardinal Dreamer (2nd), did a bit of work to lead but soft run after that, still boxed on well and has a win in him when draws to get a soft lead
Safina Leis (3rd), good drive and an improved performace. Definitely proved that she is purely a sit/sprint mare
Innasbrook (4th), barrier killed his chances from the get go but stuck to task well
Peace Chief (5th), didn't enjoy much luck, barrier 1 didn't suit either as better when can grind home in his races. Forgive run
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Race 6 - C5+ Stand, 2579m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 78.8 (average), first half 62.4, last half 57.6
Winner simply in a different class, both placegetters went okay too
Cosmic Under Fire (1st), simply too classy, once he found the front it was a procession and not many horses will lose a race in Tassie running home 57.6
Jumpin Jack Jasper (2nd), another honest run in a stand, never seems to run a bad one. No match for winner though
Ulos (3rd), much improved run, probably the 2nd best run in the race actually as he was off the pegs and 3 wide in the quick last half. Might surprise at next couple
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - C1-C2 Mares, 2090m, mile rate 1.59.7, lead time 34.3 (very fast), first half 60.9, last half 60.3
Went way too quickly here, overall mile rate of 1.59 and didn't break 60 the run home just emphasises the fact. First 2 horses cleared right out
Blacktie Affair (1st), very well driven and also relished the hot speed. Was going to win a long way from home. Has to be driven sit/sprint but is flying at present
Jet Black Flyer (2nd), another good drive and unlucky to run into a mre at the top of her game as beat the rest easily
Lola Bromac (3rd), very good run as did a bit of work in the quick early sectionals then kept coming in the straight. One to follow
Sanreos (4th), going very well this mare and another good tough run, might struggle to win until she gets back into the draw but isn't going to be far away in anything
Julias Song (5th), looked disappointing, never travelled the entire race and then just plugged home despite doing no work
Thabela Brioso (8th), suicidal tactics driving a 50/1 pop forward from gate 7 in super quick lead time then a 60 first half death seating. Did well in hindsight to only be beaten 28 metres so run was actually okay
Ashkalini (12th), started odds on and was gassed in front but capitulated very quickly, all her best form has been over mile trips though so was always going to be a query if she led and copped any pressure here. Be interesting to see how she performs next start but would imagine she would be driven with a sit
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Race 8 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 32.3 (is a record if correct but doubt it), first half 64.3, last half 62.2
Went very quickly early also and form is always going to be very suspect when the final quarter of a race is run in 32.2 so make of it what you will
Phantom Jasper (1st), enjoyed a perfect run in transit and kept plugging home
Still Royal (2nd), was the one I wanted to be on in the run and thought he should have won but just got outplugged
Cancellara (3rd), every hope but no match for first 2
Livin In Heaven (5th), fair effort after copping plenty of pressure
Boozy Rouge (6th), no doubt should have won easily as badly held up but remember that despite looking terribly unlucky they did stagger home which probably emphasised things
Safe And Smart (8th), overdid things early
Cullens Count (9th), forget he went around, went forward early then had to go back to last and also had a flat tyre in the run
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Race 9 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.04.9, lead time 36.6 (slower than average), first half 66.1, last half 59.5
Pretty average lot and long odds on pop led and walked which compressed the margins at the end
Denvers Boy (1st), didn't look too impressive, appeared to switch off in the run after getting it very easy. Probably went too slowly in hindsight
Look Look (2nd), good drive to trail the fav and kept coming in the straight
Woodland Chapel (3rd), ran home out wide as usual but might get up in one of these races shortly
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Sunday, August 29, 2010
Sunday Tips
Hobart all races
R1#1 King Of Jewels
R2#2 Chanceabet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#3 Iden Justasmyrk
R6#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R7#1 Ashkalini
R8#8 Boozy Rouge
R9#7 Denvers Boy
Best Bet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
$100 Quaddie
6,8
2,3
8
1,10,11
$48 gives 400%
6,8
2,3
2,3,4,6
1,10,11
$48 gives 100%
8
3
8
1,8,10,11
$4 gives 100%
R1#1 King Of Jewels
R2#2 Chanceabet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#3 Iden Justasmyrk
R6#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R7#1 Ashkalini
R8#8 Boozy Rouge
R9#7 Denvers Boy
Best Bet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
$100 Quaddie
6,8
2,3
8
1,10,11
$48 gives 400%
6,8
2,3
2,3,4,6
1,10,11
$48 gives 100%
8
3
8
1,8,10,11
$4 gives 100%
Hobart Preview, Sunday August 29
Hobart, Sunday August 29
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties bar the last race and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 2.8
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND scr
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 26
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and last week made ground when running 2nd to a smart one in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #3 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 15
2 FLASHY ICON 6.5
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 11
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 11
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 26
9 HAMISH SANZ 3
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1) 9
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 9
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS scr
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #10 Smokin Mustard also comes into play now he gets a run as has raced in stronger fields than this and been competitive, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. Bot of a watch on #5 Town Trickster who resumes after average form in first campaign but has trialled okay this time in so monitor betting. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,5?,10,11/1,3,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4.5
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 4.5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/6/3/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1) scr
2 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 21
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 17
7 WILLIE WINALOT 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 21
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 15
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 9
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 7
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO scr
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,3/4,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY scr
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 9
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1) 26
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #11 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad and it was hard to guage much from her last run as wasn't extended. In a nutshell, I have to admit that I am not sure if I have her odds right or not as might be better than them. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out and #12 Doves Patch is also an exotics player now she has obtained a run
1/11/10/8/7,12,13/4
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
2 SAFE AND SMART 4
3 HARLEKEN WIZED scr
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 4.5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 4.5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 11
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but will probably be at backable odds and worth the risk if that is the case. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did but he was an average run last time and reckon he might be poor value. #4 Cullens Count has been very honest at past few and from this draw will give a great sight again. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 8/2,4/1,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON scr
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 13
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 1.4
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
With the scratching of what appeared to be his only danger, #7 Denvers Boy looks thrown in now. He has been very good at past few and should press on from this gate, find the front and bolt in. There is a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/4,5,10/9,11
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties bar the last race and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 2.8
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND scr
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 26
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and last week made ground when running 2nd to a smart one in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #3 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 15
2 FLASHY ICON 6.5
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 11
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 11
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 26
9 HAMISH SANZ 3
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1) 9
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 9
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS scr
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #10 Smokin Mustard also comes into play now he gets a run as has raced in stronger fields than this and been competitive, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. Bot of a watch on #5 Town Trickster who resumes after average form in first campaign but has trialled okay this time in so monitor betting. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,5?,10,11/1,3,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4.5
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 4.5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/6/3/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1) scr
2 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 21
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 17
7 WILLIE WINALOT 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 21
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 15
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 9
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 7
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO scr
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,3/4,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY scr
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 9
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1) 26
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #11 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad and it was hard to guage much from her last run as wasn't extended. In a nutshell, I have to admit that I am not sure if I have her odds right or not as might be better than them. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out and #12 Doves Patch is also an exotics player now she has obtained a run
1/11/10/8/7,12,13/4
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
2 SAFE AND SMART 4
3 HARLEKEN WIZED scr
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 4.5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 4.5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 11
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but will probably be at backable odds and worth the risk if that is the case. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did but he was an average run last time and reckon he might be poor value. #4 Cullens Count has been very honest at past few and from this draw will give a great sight again. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 8/2,4/1,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON scr
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 13
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 1.4
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
With the scratching of what appeared to be his only danger, #7 Denvers Boy looks thrown in now. He has been very good at past few and should press on from this gate, find the front and bolt in. There is a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/4,5,10/9,11
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Went to the Gold Coast gallops today and
WON plenty!!
Surely helped when when in races 2,3 at Caulfield a couple of Tassie horses went round (they actually went over on the same flight earlier in the week as well):
With Decorum $18 and
I'm A Hussy $4.80 into $3
Both got the chockies which when combined with a fair slice of the quaddie means I am heading out for a few celebratory ones. Had one bet at the trots
Echuca
R7#7 No Matter What - bad draw, bad driver but well worth backing all the same. Should be $3+ (leave it well alone if it isn't, easy for me to say as already on lol)
Surely helped when when in races 2,3 at Caulfield a couple of Tassie horses went round (they actually went over on the same flight earlier in the week as well):
With Decorum $18 and
I'm A Hussy $4.80 into $3
Both got the chockies which when combined with a fair slice of the quaddie means I am heading out for a few celebratory ones. Had one bet at the trots
Echuca
R7#7 No Matter What - bad draw, bad driver but well worth backing all the same. Should be $3+ (leave it well alone if it isn't, easy for me to say as already on lol)
Friday, August 27, 2010
Harness.org.au needs to extract the digit
Picked this snippet up on the Betfair forum (courtesy of jb) and it is just slack on whoever is responsible for updating the harness.org.au site and once again its punters who cop the rough end of it.
Over the past week, there have been driving changes made (only 4 have been noticed) and the site hasn't been updated to reflect any of them. Changes were:
Graham Lee replaced by Gavin Lang
Graeme Lang replaced by Gavin Lang
Graeme Lang replaced by Chris Lang Jr
Graeme Lang replaced by Daryl Douglas
Anybody who follows the caper will tell you that this information is paramount for punters prior to having a bet when a premier reinsman is replacing somebody who rarely goes round. No disrespect to Graeme Lang who had a good driving career but is in his 70s now and is literally an anchor nowadays when driving.
Another thing that irks me is that when connections advise of a change of tactics it isn't listed anywhere despite the said connections having to give notice a reasonable time frame prior to the race, its no good telling punters about it when they are scoring up as all bets are placed by then. Any serious punter will have a speed map worked out and bet around it accordingly so if horse "x" is not going to keep the front as expected then punters deserve to know.
How hard would it be for a steward to make note of this on the site that is used by everybody in the industry just so things are transparent.
Over the past week, there have been driving changes made (only 4 have been noticed) and the site hasn't been updated to reflect any of them. Changes were:
Graham Lee replaced by Gavin Lang
Graeme Lang replaced by Gavin Lang
Graeme Lang replaced by Chris Lang Jr
Graeme Lang replaced by Daryl Douglas
Anybody who follows the caper will tell you that this information is paramount for punters prior to having a bet when a premier reinsman is replacing somebody who rarely goes round. No disrespect to Graeme Lang who had a good driving career but is in his 70s now and is literally an anchor nowadays when driving.
Another thing that irks me is that when connections advise of a change of tactics it isn't listed anywhere despite the said connections having to give notice a reasonable time frame prior to the race, its no good telling punters about it when they are scoring up as all bets are placed by then. Any serious punter will have a speed map worked out and bet around it accordingly so if horse "x" is not going to keep the front as expected then punters deserve to know.
How hard would it be for a steward to make note of this on the site that is used by everybody in the industry just so things are transparent.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Harness Racing + TabCorp = a slow and painful death
Its time to poke the bear!
Reality has to hit home soon, the current emphasis on more product (for turnover purposes) at the expense of quality is simply degenerating Harness Racing into the lowest form of gambling usually associated with poker machines. The sad part is that based on the current infrastructure it certainly isn't going to change in the near future.
TabCorp now run Harness Racing, nobody can argue that. All media personalities try and pretend they have the best interests of the industry at heart but 99% of them are employed with a TabCorp subsiduary in some capacity so clearly cannot speak candidly on certain matters. I would imagine that if Adam Hamilton for example wrote a scathing article about the TAB in the Herald Sun that he would surely be heavily censured by his "other employer". Therefore, even if they wish to comment about certain elements, they are hamstrung as if they do they are putting their livelihood at risk. Surely the controlling bodies in Victoria and New South Wales can act independently though as should be their charter but wait, their home tracks are now both called TabCorp Park!! Just to reinforce things, all Harness Racing coverage on TV (SKY), radio (SKY, Sport 927) and state committees are indelibly linked to Tabcorp and there is no independent voice apparent anywhere.
Harness Racing in the United States is really struggling with flagship tracks such as the Meadowlands now forced to lower stakes and nearly all tracks relying upon income derived from slots or by increasing the parimutual takeout to around 25%. This should have alarm bells going off down under but it will fall on deaf ears as the only way to correct the problem is to change the current race format and TabCorp isn't going to do anything that may impact their bottom line in the short term.
There are a couple of success stories in the USA where tracks have turned themselves around by primarily thinking of Harness Racing as being in the entertainment game and not purely another gambling stream. They have implemented novel ideas to bring back the entertainment side, they market their trainers and drivers so they have a public profile, they have embraced the technological era and now utilise electronic media options and they take note about what works with similar industries and implement it to suit their format. As far as I can see, Harness Racing in Australia still has the same grading system, meeting format, timing of races, race distances and betting options that it did 20 years ago.
There is one huge problem though and that is that TabCorp has established itself a monopoly on the broadcasting of Harness Racing in all formats so any ruling body who dares to break free will simply be cut off from being shown on TV and that would be suicidal the way the punting landscape is currently set up. Clubs have to run meetings when TabCorp say they can or not get the TV coverage and by extension turnover so it would surely be the death knell of any club to go it alone in the current format. I can appreciate that its a bit of a be damned if you do and damned if you don't dilemma but it is slowly slipping away and changes do need to be made. Any changes however do need to be done with the full support of the industry but is there anybody out there willing to poke the bear?
To succeed in anything nowadays, you have to provide a quality product yet Harness Racing reminds me of the old adage that "nice guys come last". We are trying to spread the wealth around by running tons of lower class races to try and assist the battler when in essence all that does is showcase too many substandard meetings and drivers. If changes were made, it might hurt a few in the short term but it has to be done for the greater good and long term sustainability of the caper. My belief is to succeed long term that there are two key steps that need to be taken.
Firstly lets get serious about the professionalism side of things. We need to cull a few meetings and put more money into the top end of things as I am sure that by increasing the quality of those races that turnover on those meetings would in time easily exceed what is currently being earned by running a heap of substandard races. Plus the public perception increases and sponsors start appearing wanting to become involved but at the moment who would want to have their name associated with an industry that hasn't evolved since the 1960s. We also need to market our stars so they are not faceless individuals and the public can identify with them, have an elite set of drivers who travel the country driving at major meetings and really crack down on who can get to drive at marquee meetings. It sounds simple but if you really want to be seen as a professional entity then first you have to act professionally. Look at some of the incompetence that is rampant in the industry nowadays, group 1 races are clashing between states, the InterDominion format sems to change every year and group 1 races are regularly marred by incompetent driving performances by people who should never be allowed to compete in feature races.
Secondly, lets embrace the electronic age. Over 90% of Australian households have a home computer nowadays and a lot have the capability to stream directly to their television plus countless other mediums exist to allow people access even when out of the home but Harness Racing has missed the boat on this front. HRV have recently introduced an weekly preview available on You Tube and joined the social networking sites but it took far too long for this to happen and I am not even sure if NSW has done either to be honest. Its the ideal medium to showcase your product just by uploading a daily newsclip, interviewing participants, having a weekly form wrap up, etc and it just seems a "no brainer" to me. Heck, I could even do it myself its that easy but I would like to think that a multi million dollar industry might actually take the lead on that front.
Its a simple case of short term pain for long term gain.
Reality has to hit home soon, the current emphasis on more product (for turnover purposes) at the expense of quality is simply degenerating Harness Racing into the lowest form of gambling usually associated with poker machines. The sad part is that based on the current infrastructure it certainly isn't going to change in the near future.
TabCorp now run Harness Racing, nobody can argue that. All media personalities try and pretend they have the best interests of the industry at heart but 99% of them are employed with a TabCorp subsiduary in some capacity so clearly cannot speak candidly on certain matters. I would imagine that if Adam Hamilton for example wrote a scathing article about the TAB in the Herald Sun that he would surely be heavily censured by his "other employer". Therefore, even if they wish to comment about certain elements, they are hamstrung as if they do they are putting their livelihood at risk. Surely the controlling bodies in Victoria and New South Wales can act independently though as should be their charter but wait, their home tracks are now both called TabCorp Park!! Just to reinforce things, all Harness Racing coverage on TV (SKY), radio (SKY, Sport 927) and state committees are indelibly linked to Tabcorp and there is no independent voice apparent anywhere.
Harness Racing in the United States is really struggling with flagship tracks such as the Meadowlands now forced to lower stakes and nearly all tracks relying upon income derived from slots or by increasing the parimutual takeout to around 25%. This should have alarm bells going off down under but it will fall on deaf ears as the only way to correct the problem is to change the current race format and TabCorp isn't going to do anything that may impact their bottom line in the short term.
There are a couple of success stories in the USA where tracks have turned themselves around by primarily thinking of Harness Racing as being in the entertainment game and not purely another gambling stream. They have implemented novel ideas to bring back the entertainment side, they market their trainers and drivers so they have a public profile, they have embraced the technological era and now utilise electronic media options and they take note about what works with similar industries and implement it to suit their format. As far as I can see, Harness Racing in Australia still has the same grading system, meeting format, timing of races, race distances and betting options that it did 20 years ago.
There is one huge problem though and that is that TabCorp has established itself a monopoly on the broadcasting of Harness Racing in all formats so any ruling body who dares to break free will simply be cut off from being shown on TV and that would be suicidal the way the punting landscape is currently set up. Clubs have to run meetings when TabCorp say they can or not get the TV coverage and by extension turnover so it would surely be the death knell of any club to go it alone in the current format. I can appreciate that its a bit of a be damned if you do and damned if you don't dilemma but it is slowly slipping away and changes do need to be made. Any changes however do need to be done with the full support of the industry but is there anybody out there willing to poke the bear?
To succeed in anything nowadays, you have to provide a quality product yet Harness Racing reminds me of the old adage that "nice guys come last". We are trying to spread the wealth around by running tons of lower class races to try and assist the battler when in essence all that does is showcase too many substandard meetings and drivers. If changes were made, it might hurt a few in the short term but it has to be done for the greater good and long term sustainability of the caper. My belief is to succeed long term that there are two key steps that need to be taken.
Firstly lets get serious about the professionalism side of things. We need to cull a few meetings and put more money into the top end of things as I am sure that by increasing the quality of those races that turnover on those meetings would in time easily exceed what is currently being earned by running a heap of substandard races. Plus the public perception increases and sponsors start appearing wanting to become involved but at the moment who would want to have their name associated with an industry that hasn't evolved since the 1960s. We also need to market our stars so they are not faceless individuals and the public can identify with them, have an elite set of drivers who travel the country driving at major meetings and really crack down on who can get to drive at marquee meetings. It sounds simple but if you really want to be seen as a professional entity then first you have to act professionally. Look at some of the incompetence that is rampant in the industry nowadays, group 1 races are clashing between states, the InterDominion format sems to change every year and group 1 races are regularly marred by incompetent driving performances by people who should never be allowed to compete in feature races.
Secondly, lets embrace the electronic age. Over 90% of Australian households have a home computer nowadays and a lot have the capability to stream directly to their television plus countless other mediums exist to allow people access even when out of the home but Harness Racing has missed the boat on this front. HRV have recently introduced an weekly preview available on You Tube and joined the social networking sites but it took far too long for this to happen and I am not even sure if NSW has done either to be honest. Its the ideal medium to showcase your product just by uploading a daily newsclip, interviewing participants, having a weekly form wrap up, etc and it just seems a "no brainer" to me. Heck, I could even do it myself its that easy but I would like to think that a multi million dollar industry might actually take the lead on that front.
Its a simple case of short term pain for long term gain.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Hobart Sunday
Hobart, Sunday August 29
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 3
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND 51
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 34
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and then made ground in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #4 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11,12,13
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 17
2 FLASHY ICON 7
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 9
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 17
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 21
9 HAMISH SANZ 2.5
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1)
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 8
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 101
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,11/1,3,5,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/3,6/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1)
2 PEACE CHIEF 5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 17
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 13
7 WILLIE WINALOT 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 17
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 13
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 8
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 13
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO 9
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,7/3,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 51
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 11
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1)
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #1 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out
1/11/10/8
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 9
2 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
3 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 8
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. In races like this I generally opt for a touch of value and will be having something on #3 Harleken Wized who was slaughtered last week at Launceston in a stronger race. Took off to find the death whilst they ran 30.1 from the 1200 to 800 then went 29 down the back so had every right to drop dead late but because of how far he got beaten he just might be silly odds here as would be a definite hope on previous form. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but must be respected. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 3/2,8/1,4,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON 2.8
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 17
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 2.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
Look to be two clear standouts here to finish the night. I have opted for #7 Denvers Boy despite the draw as have been super impressed with all of his past 3 runs. He did meet #2 Aapenon a few runs back and both had every hope and Aapenon beat him home clearly but I believe that Denvers Boy is a much better horse now than he was at that stage. #2 Aapenon will be mighty hard to beat though as should lead and take no end of running down. Be surprised if they didn't fight out the finish but a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/2/4,10/5,9,11
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 3
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND 51
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 34
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and then made ground in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #4 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11,12,13
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 17
2 FLASHY ICON 7
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 9
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 17
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 21
9 HAMISH SANZ 2.5
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1)
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 8
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 101
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,11/1,3,5,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/3,6/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1)
2 PEACE CHIEF 5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 17
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 13
7 WILLIE WINALOT 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 17
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 13
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 8
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 13
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO 9
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,7/3,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 51
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 11
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1)
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #1 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out
1/11/10/8
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 9
2 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
3 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 8
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. In races like this I generally opt for a touch of value and will be having something on #3 Harleken Wized who was slaughtered last week at Launceston in a stronger race. Took off to find the death whilst they ran 30.1 from the 1200 to 800 then went 29 down the back so had every right to drop dead late but because of how far he got beaten he just might be silly odds here as would be a definite hope on previous form. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but must be respected. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 3/2,8/1,4,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON 2.8
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 17
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 2.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
Look to be two clear standouts here to finish the night. I have opted for #7 Denvers Boy despite the draw as have been super impressed with all of his past 3 runs. He did meet #2 Aapenon a few runs back and both had every hope and Aapenon beat him home clearly but I believe that Denvers Boy is a much better horse now than he was at that stage. #2 Aapenon will be mighty hard to beat though as should lead and take no end of running down. Be surprised if they didn't fight out the finish but a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/2/4,10/5,9,11
Inconsistencies in Harness Racing Rules and Penalties
This is a major bugbear for many followers as there seems to be regular cases that there is one rule for some and another rule for others - usually the big names v the battlers. Could list countless issues here but just going to touch on a couple of rules that seem to be only applied sparingly which is when its the most frustrating.
The first point though is something that I never hear mentioned too often but it always gets me. It is when a trotter gallops in the last part of a race and everybody wonders whether that horse will keep the race and a protest is generally fired in every time by either the placegetters or the stewards. You never hear anything though when a horse gallops for 100 metres with two laps to go and gets up to win but seriously, what is the difference? There is no difference in reality but I reckon over the years I have seen 1000 trotters win after galloping at some part early in a race and their win is never questioned, yet I have seen many horses relegated for doing exactly the same thing in the home straight despite not gaining ground. Would have been interesting if Rostevarren held on to win on Sunday afternoon after breaking in the straight.
Sprint Lanes and Marker Pegs are another issue and more specifically horses being disqualified for entering the sprint lane or knocking over or going inside the pegs. This rule is that inconsistently applied it isn't funny and seems to be the flavour of the month every 2 months or so and a few get pinged then nothing happens until there is another blitz a couple of months later. It should be easy to adjudicate this one but the only consistencies regarding the rule currently is that if a big name driver or a short priced favourite breaks the rule then its okay whilst the battler cops it every time and that it gets applied only once every blue moon.
Could go on and on with things such as suspensions, relegation, etc but leave it at that for now
The first point though is something that I never hear mentioned too often but it always gets me. It is when a trotter gallops in the last part of a race and everybody wonders whether that horse will keep the race and a protest is generally fired in every time by either the placegetters or the stewards. You never hear anything though when a horse gallops for 100 metres with two laps to go and gets up to win but seriously, what is the difference? There is no difference in reality but I reckon over the years I have seen 1000 trotters win after galloping at some part early in a race and their win is never questioned, yet I have seen many horses relegated for doing exactly the same thing in the home straight despite not gaining ground. Would have been interesting if Rostevarren held on to win on Sunday afternoon after breaking in the straight.
Sprint Lanes and Marker Pegs are another issue and more specifically horses being disqualified for entering the sprint lane or knocking over or going inside the pegs. This rule is that inconsistently applied it isn't funny and seems to be the flavour of the month every 2 months or so and a few get pinged then nothing happens until there is another blitz a couple of months later. It should be easy to adjudicate this one but the only consistencies regarding the rule currently is that if a big name driver or a short priced favourite breaks the rule then its okay whilst the battler cops it every time and that it gets applied only once every blue moon.
Could go on and on with things such as suspensions, relegation, etc but leave it at that for now
Monday, August 23, 2010
Meeting Summary, Launceston August 22
Strange meeting with hardly anything out wide doing much all night, a lot of horses also got beaten a very long way so a few doubts as a true form reference going forward
Blackbookers from meeting
Denvers Boy
Peace Chief
Harley Fella
Barooga Billy
Binabelle
Flight To Mikinos
Drive of the night
Todd Rattray - Melman, some say its easy to drive leaders but he rated it perfectly going quick enough to not cop pressure and then kicked for home at the perfect time
Best performance
Flight To Mikinos - not many horses run a sub 43 lead time and survive late, he managed to destroy his rivals at the end though
Carve up of the night
Harleken Wized - started at $26 but was one/one on the back of a $2.20 fav who was certain to take it into the race and the driver (Shelley Barnes) decides to take off at the 1200m mark in a 30.1 quarter to get the death seat. Not surprisingly tired to run last. Amazing decision though
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Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.4, lead time 5.3 (average), first half 61.2, last half 59.2
Best horse drew to lead in mile race, simple as that
Ashkalini (1st) - Good drive by Todd as well running even quarters with main dangers drawn out the back which made it difficult for them to work into the race. See tons of drivers with the mentality that when they lead the slower they go the better and that is a total crock
Denvers Boy (2nd) - super run, out wide and miles off leader (and winner) at 1200 with last 3 qtrs in 30.4, 30.1 and 29.1. He is certain to win again soon when drawn better
The Detonator (3rd) - much improved run, beat 4th horse by 10 metres which is usually a decent form reference so may go on with it now
Charlie Grattan (4th) - boxed on okay again at big odds, lacks the dash to win but will continue to be around the mark
Cindys Babe (5th) - draw killed its chances as lacks the speed to come wide, still boxed on okay and pay to follow when draws better
The rest all got beaten a very long way
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Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 46.0 (slow), first half 62.2, last half 60.1
Winner just too classy, got soft lead (46 lead time is walking) and average sections after that. All 2,3,4,5 placed horses went about the same
Julias Song (1st) - would call the win workmanlike instead of impressive. Only ran home in 60.1 and never broke 30 for any qtr but never looked in doubt so hard to guage what she could have run if pressed
Balencia (2nd) - usual honest race, always struggles to win with lack of high speed but tries her guts out
Alma Grant (3rd) - given the sectionals was entitled to do a tad more but still fair
Sanreos (4th) - pretty similar to Balencia, tries hard but lack of speed means its always difficult when drawn badly
Doves Patch (5th) - did enough to show why she has been supported in previous races
Those 5 finished way ahead of the rest
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Race 3 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.6, lead time 5.1 (quickish), first half 62.0, last half 58.8
First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race, all of 3,4,5,6,7 were fair. Rest pretty average
Cardinal Tucker (1st) - showed surprising gatespeed and once he led was always going to be very hard to run down. Well deserved win and will win more if can show that speed again
Peace Chief (2nd) - super run again, is his own worst enemy currently and will win shortly
Anoptomist (3rd) - well driven and best run inages
Willie Winalot (4th) - hard to make ground from the back in 58.8 half but kept coming, given a better draw can win shortly
Cardinal Dreamer (5th) - very similar to Willie Winalot
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Race 4 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.4, lead time 44.3 (average), first half 62.7, last half 60.3
Strange race, winner brained them yet sectionals were just fair and a lot of horses got beaten a long way
Harley Fella (1st) - good tough win, did more work than anything and cleared out
Currynroses (2nd) - every hope but no match for winner
Prettyboytoby (3rd) - got buried on the pegs but was entitled to run home a tad better
Hydehurst Boy (last) - prepared to ignore as caused false start then was gone a long way from home to be beaten 75 metres so obviously wasn't there to race
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Race 5 - C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 44.0 (better than average), first half 63.0, last half 60.2
Strangely run race, winner got the perfect run. Have doubts about it as a formline race though given the way it was run
Jet Black Flyer (1st) - every possible, got out at top of straight and they staggered home in 30.4 so was a tad flattered. Did however get used a bit early on so was some merit in the win and did win easily on line
Special Gallenti (2nd) - pretty good run given that ran a decent lead time then got no peace from the 1200. One to follow if drawn to lead
Barooga Billy (5th) - handed up death at the 1200 to a $26 pop who was never going to take him into the race. Then resented racing between horses and galloped back to last and flew home again in the straight. Should have bolted in
Saab Quality (6th) - proved he is a front of the field horse as been average nearly every time he has drawn 2nd row
Flying Jasper (7th) - every possible hope and just battled late at first Tassie start
Boozy Rouge (8th) - did a bit wrong but run was just fair
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Race 6 - 2YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.03.4, lead time 5.4 (slowish), first half 65.2, last half 58.2
Slowly run and leader dominated but thought the first 3 went as well as each other
Brezhnev Leis (1st) - first glimpse of form this time in, was strong to the line as well and last 800 was okay
Iden Noshot (2nd) - driven cold and did well to get within 3 metres coming wide in 58.2 half
Hamish Sanz (3rd) - sat leaders back and took ages to wind up so may do better driven aggressively
Guernica (4th) - very good gatespeed to lead but entitled to find more given the soft run
Binabelle (7th) - galloped twice as fav, was actually still bolting at the 300 when galloped for the 2nd time so can certainly win next start despite now being ODM
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Race 7 - C4-C5, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 42.5 (super fast), first half 64.2, last half 58.8
Winner just smashed them (3rd horse beaten 28 metres), 2nd horse good and rest pretty average
Flight To Mikinos (1st) - exceptionally quick lead time then just left them for dead at the 400, he is just about unbeatable when he leads
Murillo Bromac (2nd) - return to form, beat 3rd horse by 15 metres so pay to follow
Topup (3rd) - not going as well as he was a month ago
Loaded Franco (8th) - disgraceful run on paper but too bad to be true, if she was beaten 10m after sitting leaders back I would say she was disappointing but to be beaten 40m means something was obviously amiss
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Race 8 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 5.5 (slow), first half 62.3, last half 59.4
Leader dominated mile race, first four all decent runs and can't say much for the rest
Melman (1st) - good gatespeed to lead, got left alone and well driven to score
Safina Leis (2nd) - every hope, thought she should have won given her run and the sectionals
Sing And Dance (3rd) - continues to overrace when used early and have nothing left late, heaps better when driven cold. Still only beaten 2.8 metres so forgive run
El Jays Modeena (4th) - went as well as the first 3 over the line, might bob up at odds soon
Blackbookers from meeting
Denvers Boy
Peace Chief
Harley Fella
Barooga Billy
Binabelle
Flight To Mikinos
Drive of the night
Todd Rattray - Melman, some say its easy to drive leaders but he rated it perfectly going quick enough to not cop pressure and then kicked for home at the perfect time
Best performance
Flight To Mikinos - not many horses run a sub 43 lead time and survive late, he managed to destroy his rivals at the end though
Carve up of the night
Harleken Wized - started at $26 but was one/one on the back of a $2.20 fav who was certain to take it into the race and the driver (Shelley Barnes) decides to take off at the 1200m mark in a 30.1 quarter to get the death seat. Not surprisingly tired to run last. Amazing decision though
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.4, lead time 5.3 (average), first half 61.2, last half 59.2
Best horse drew to lead in mile race, simple as that
Ashkalini (1st) - Good drive by Todd as well running even quarters with main dangers drawn out the back which made it difficult for them to work into the race. See tons of drivers with the mentality that when they lead the slower they go the better and that is a total crock
Denvers Boy (2nd) - super run, out wide and miles off leader (and winner) at 1200 with last 3 qtrs in 30.4, 30.1 and 29.1. He is certain to win again soon when drawn better
The Detonator (3rd) - much improved run, beat 4th horse by 10 metres which is usually a decent form reference so may go on with it now
Charlie Grattan (4th) - boxed on okay again at big odds, lacks the dash to win but will continue to be around the mark
Cindys Babe (5th) - draw killed its chances as lacks the speed to come wide, still boxed on okay and pay to follow when draws better
The rest all got beaten a very long way
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Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 46.0 (slow), first half 62.2, last half 60.1
Winner just too classy, got soft lead (46 lead time is walking) and average sections after that. All 2,3,4,5 placed horses went about the same
Julias Song (1st) - would call the win workmanlike instead of impressive. Only ran home in 60.1 and never broke 30 for any qtr but never looked in doubt so hard to guage what she could have run if pressed
Balencia (2nd) - usual honest race, always struggles to win with lack of high speed but tries her guts out
Alma Grant (3rd) - given the sectionals was entitled to do a tad more but still fair
Sanreos (4th) - pretty similar to Balencia, tries hard but lack of speed means its always difficult when drawn badly
Doves Patch (5th) - did enough to show why she has been supported in previous races
Those 5 finished way ahead of the rest
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Race 3 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.6, lead time 5.1 (quickish), first half 62.0, last half 58.8
First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race, all of 3,4,5,6,7 were fair. Rest pretty average
Cardinal Tucker (1st) - showed surprising gatespeed and once he led was always going to be very hard to run down. Well deserved win and will win more if can show that speed again
Peace Chief (2nd) - super run again, is his own worst enemy currently and will win shortly
Anoptomist (3rd) - well driven and best run inages
Willie Winalot (4th) - hard to make ground from the back in 58.8 half but kept coming, given a better draw can win shortly
Cardinal Dreamer (5th) - very similar to Willie Winalot
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Race 4 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.4, lead time 44.3 (average), first half 62.7, last half 60.3
Strange race, winner brained them yet sectionals were just fair and a lot of horses got beaten a long way
Harley Fella (1st) - good tough win, did more work than anything and cleared out
Currynroses (2nd) - every hope but no match for winner
Prettyboytoby (3rd) - got buried on the pegs but was entitled to run home a tad better
Hydehurst Boy (last) - prepared to ignore as caused false start then was gone a long way from home to be beaten 75 metres so obviously wasn't there to race
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Race 5 - C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 44.0 (better than average), first half 63.0, last half 60.2
Strangely run race, winner got the perfect run. Have doubts about it as a formline race though given the way it was run
Jet Black Flyer (1st) - every possible, got out at top of straight and they staggered home in 30.4 so was a tad flattered. Did however get used a bit early on so was some merit in the win and did win easily on line
Special Gallenti (2nd) - pretty good run given that ran a decent lead time then got no peace from the 1200. One to follow if drawn to lead
Barooga Billy (5th) - handed up death at the 1200 to a $26 pop who was never going to take him into the race. Then resented racing between horses and galloped back to last and flew home again in the straight. Should have bolted in
Saab Quality (6th) - proved he is a front of the field horse as been average nearly every time he has drawn 2nd row
Flying Jasper (7th) - every possible hope and just battled late at first Tassie start
Boozy Rouge (8th) - did a bit wrong but run was just fair
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Race 6 - 2YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.03.4, lead time 5.4 (slowish), first half 65.2, last half 58.2
Slowly run and leader dominated but thought the first 3 went as well as each other
Brezhnev Leis (1st) - first glimpse of form this time in, was strong to the line as well and last 800 was okay
Iden Noshot (2nd) - driven cold and did well to get within 3 metres coming wide in 58.2 half
Hamish Sanz (3rd) - sat leaders back and took ages to wind up so may do better driven aggressively
Guernica (4th) - very good gatespeed to lead but entitled to find more given the soft run
Binabelle (7th) - galloped twice as fav, was actually still bolting at the 300 when galloped for the 2nd time so can certainly win next start despite now being ODM
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Race 7 - C4-C5, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 42.5 (super fast), first half 64.2, last half 58.8
Winner just smashed them (3rd horse beaten 28 metres), 2nd horse good and rest pretty average
Flight To Mikinos (1st) - exceptionally quick lead time then just left them for dead at the 400, he is just about unbeatable when he leads
Murillo Bromac (2nd) - return to form, beat 3rd horse by 15 metres so pay to follow
Topup (3rd) - not going as well as he was a month ago
Loaded Franco (8th) - disgraceful run on paper but too bad to be true, if she was beaten 10m after sitting leaders back I would say she was disappointing but to be beaten 40m means something was obviously amiss
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Race 8 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 5.5 (slow), first half 62.3, last half 59.4
Leader dominated mile race, first four all decent runs and can't say much for the rest
Melman (1st) - good gatespeed to lead, got left alone and well driven to score
Safina Leis (2nd) - every hope, thought she should have won given her run and the sectionals
Sing And Dance (3rd) - continues to overrace when used early and have nothing left late, heaps better when driven cold. Still only beaten 2.8 metres so forgive run
El Jays Modeena (4th) - went as well as the first 3 over the line, might bob up at odds soon
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Sunday Tips
Launceston
R1#6 Ashkalini
R2#3 Julias Song
R3#7 Cardinal Tucker
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#4 Barooga Billy
R6#1 Binabelle
R7#1 Loaded Franco
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Bet
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Value
R4#8 Harley Fella
$100 Quaddie for 100%
1,3,4,6,8
4
1,2,6,7
1,2,3,5,7
Full Launceston preview in following post
Don't have anything at Melton
Breeders Crown Finals Day is good to watch for enthusiasts but can be a dangerous punting day with a lot of money up for grabs a lot of drivers lose their heads. Also isn't a ton of value as a rule so I will only be mucking around. Would love to see Broadways Best win though as has had shocking luck with barriers in big races and finally gets one here. I have liked her from day 1 actually and had $400ew at $51 with TAB Sportsbet in the final 2 years ago when she led and was attacked all race including a 27 qtr down the back, straightened up 5 metres in front then hit the wall and I felt as if I had been "moosed". Still wonder what would have happened had she handed up to Ananz. I did walk off the track that day saying she was the one horse I would like to own out of all the stars that raced that day which got me laughed at but as they say even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally!
For those that don't know, "moosed" is a term used by American punters when something happens and they feel as if they have been fkd over big time - as in fkd in the a..e by a moose. It is a tad coarse (especially if you have ever seen the size of a moose in real life) but explains the feeling perfectly on occasions so I use the word all the time.
R1#6 Ashkalini
R2#3 Julias Song
R3#7 Cardinal Tucker
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#4 Barooga Billy
R6#1 Binabelle
R7#1 Loaded Franco
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Bet
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Value
R4#8 Harley Fella
$100 Quaddie for 100%
1,3,4,6,8
4
1,2,6,7
1,2,3,5,7
Full Launceston preview in following post
Don't have anything at Melton
Breeders Crown Finals Day is good to watch for enthusiasts but can be a dangerous punting day with a lot of money up for grabs a lot of drivers lose their heads. Also isn't a ton of value as a rule so I will only be mucking around. Would love to see Broadways Best win though as has had shocking luck with barriers in big races and finally gets one here. I have liked her from day 1 actually and had $400ew at $51 with TAB Sportsbet in the final 2 years ago when she led and was attacked all race including a 27 qtr down the back, straightened up 5 metres in front then hit the wall and I felt as if I had been "moosed". Still wonder what would have happened had she handed up to Ananz. I did walk off the track that day saying she was the one horse I would like to own out of all the stars that raced that day which got me laughed at but as they say even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally!
For those that don't know, "moosed" is a term used by American punters when something happens and they feel as if they have been fkd over big time - as in fkd in the a..e by a moose. It is a tad coarse (especially if you have ever seen the size of a moose in real life) but explains the feeling perfectly on occasions so I use the word all the time.
Launceston odds and ratings
Race 1
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE scr
2 HES NO SAINT 17
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 15
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 3.5
8 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 WILLIE WINALOT 7
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 11
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #5 Scarlett Blaze returns to Tassie and hasn't been far away against some fair fields in Victoria so a bit of a watch, #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/8/10,12/5,11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
2 CANCELLARA 15
3 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
4 KEEN OPERATOR 6.5
5 NIBEBO scr
6 CURRYNROSES 6.5
7 TEEJAY FELLA scr
8 HARLEY FELLA 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #8 Harley Fella might be a touch of value and thought his 2 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 8/1/3,4/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 67
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB scr
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE scr
2 HES NO SAINT 17
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 15
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 3.5
8 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 WILLIE WINALOT 7
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 11
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #5 Scarlett Blaze returns to Tassie and hasn't been far away against some fair fields in Victoria so a bit of a watch, #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/8/10,12/5,11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
2 CANCELLARA 15
3 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
4 KEEN OPERATOR 6.5
5 NIBEBO scr
6 CURRYNROSES 6.5
7 TEEJAY FELLA scr
8 HARLEY FELLA 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #8 Harley Fella might be a touch of value and thought his 2 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 8/1/3,4/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 67
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB scr
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Saturday Tips
Ballarat
R1#9 Savannah Way
Newcastle
R6#9 Cmon Harry
Globe Derby
R5#8 Bohemian Lombo (reckon 6,8 is a good quinella as well)
and in the gallops
Moonee Valley
R6#6 Morgan Dollar
R1#9 Savannah Way
Newcastle
R6#9 Cmon Harry
Globe Derby
R5#8 Bohemian Lombo (reckon 6,8 is a good quinella as well)
and in the gallops
Moonee Valley
R6#6 Morgan Dollar
Friday, August 20, 2010
Friday Tips
Reckon both of these are morals, smaller punters might want to take an all up which would net around $3.50 as reckon they will start at roughly 2.2 and 1.6 respectively
Melton
R4#9 Excel Stride
R6#1 Courage To Rule
Melton
R4#9 Excel Stride
R6#1 Courage To Rule
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Launceston, Sunday August 22
Well isn't this a great meeting!! Being a tad sarcastic in case you didn't guess, just happens to follow on from the $1.6m card for the Breeders at Melton......
Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to break the winners in a year record with 2 meetings left and I am struggling to see him driving one here to be honest but all will get some support simply due to that so might be some lay opportunities along the way
Race 1
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE 5
2 HES NO SAINT 21
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 21
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 101
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 4
8 PEACE CHIEF 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 WILLIE WINALOT 6
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 8
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 7
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on the honest #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #1 Surprise Purchase always runs his best races in front and draws to get that role here so should get his chance if good enough. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/1,8/10,12/11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
2 CANCELLARA 17
3 HYDEHURST BOY 4
4 KEEN OPERATOR 8
5 NIBEBO 51
6 CURRYNROSES 8
7 TEEJAY FELLA 5
8 HARLEY FELLA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #7 Teejay Fella might be a touch of value and thought all his 3 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #8 Harley Fella is also going well but the draw might be the issue with him but only needs an ounce of luck to figure. #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 7/1/3,4,8/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1)
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB 34
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to break the winners in a year record with 2 meetings left and I am struggling to see him driving one here to be honest but all will get some support simply due to that so might be some lay opportunities along the way
Race 1
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE 5
2 HES NO SAINT 21
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 21
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 101
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 4
8 PEACE CHIEF 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 WILLIE WINALOT 6
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 8
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 7
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on the honest #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #1 Surprise Purchase always runs his best races in front and draws to get that role here so should get his chance if good enough. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/1,8/10,12/11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
2 CANCELLARA 17
3 HYDEHURST BOY 4
4 KEEN OPERATOR 8
5 NIBEBO 51
6 CURRYNROSES 8
7 TEEJAY FELLA 5
8 HARLEY FELLA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #7 Teejay Fella might be a touch of value and thought all his 3 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #8 Harley Fella is also going well but the draw might be the issue with him but only needs an ounce of luck to figure. #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 7/1/3,4,8/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1)
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB 34
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Sunday Tips
Hobart - all races
R1#4 Iden Justasmyrk
R2#6 Winewomenandsong
R3#1 Lugovoi Leis
R4#4 Topotheclouds
R5#1 Still Royal
R6#11 Biggernbettermax
R7#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#2 Kristins Niadh
R9#11 Sing And Dance
R10#1 Sweetchillifilly
Best Bet - R6#11 Biggernbettermax
Best Bolter - R2#4 Dusty Kalena
Quaddie
Reckon this gets it
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
going to spend $100 and take
1,4
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
$48 = 50%
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,8
$48 = 50%
1,4
1
8,11
8
$4 = 100%
R1#4 Iden Justasmyrk
R2#6 Winewomenandsong
R3#1 Lugovoi Leis
R4#4 Topotheclouds
R5#1 Still Royal
R6#11 Biggernbettermax
R7#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#2 Kristins Niadh
R9#11 Sing And Dance
R10#1 Sweetchillifilly
Best Bet - R6#11 Biggernbettermax
Best Bolter - R2#4 Dusty Kalena
Quaddie
Reckon this gets it
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
going to spend $100 and take
1,4
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
$48 = 50%
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,8
$48 = 50%
1,4
1
8,11
8
$4 = 100%
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Hobart preview, Sunday August 15
Still have 2 races to complete but should be finished at some stage today
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 3.5
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN scr
3 INNASBROOK 4.5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3.5
5 SAAB QUALITY 3.5
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 201
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 201
10 MASTERAMA 201
Extremely difficult race to start the evening with multiple winning hopes and it all comes down to how it is run. For that reason and purely on my speed map, I have opted for the dour #4 Iden Justasmyrk as top pick who was soundly beaten by Saab Quality last week but reckon he might roll to the front and always grows a leg in that role. His best form however has been when driven by Nat Emery so the fact she isn't driving sours my confidence a tad but still goes on top. #1 Ashkalini returned to racing in slashing style versus her own age and sex and despite taking on the boys here is going to get a gun trip. #5 Saab Quality was awesome demolishing a similar field last week and is sure to go forward and make his own luck again but its worth noting the last time he sat outside Justasmyrk he was clearly held but does get Gareth on this time. It shows the depth of this race in that I haven't mentioned #3 Innasbrook as yet who has been very good winning both starts since a let up but has found the front both times and doubt he can lead here and might struggle to beat these if he doesn't lead. Of the rest, #7 Denvers Boy was heavily backed and bolted in last week by 12 metres but this is much stronger and from the draw I rate him a place prospect only. No confidence in the race at all though as evidenced by my market with the top 4 picks very even, #7 a clear 5th pick and that all of #6, #8, #9 and #10 are totally outclassed and be gobsmacked if any of them ran in the first four
Ratings 4/1,5/3/7
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 13
9 POKER STORM 7
Another hard race to sort out and have settled on the well bred #6 Winewomenandsong who I know was lucky to win his only start and did get a perfect trip but there were also plenty of positives in the win. Its easy to say he only ran past an extremely unlucky Quastor Centurion who must have lost 40 metres after getting knocked over but don't overlook the fact he finished off in 28.8 and also ran past Semose Twenty who would be a huge chance in this. Don't know much about its gatespeed but still happy to have him on top. The state's leading trainer Phillip Ford also has 2 runners resuming from a spell who both won their previous race before the break in #5 Odins Dragon Rider and #7 Lauras Happy Time which makes it almost impossible to sort out as neither has trialled publicly but both have to be kept extremely safe. #9 Poker Storm was disappointing last time but may go better driven cold as in previous runs, #8 Smokin Mustard had good form earlier in the year but form has tapered off lately but should get a cheap run. #2 Brezhnev Leis was just fair first up but has a better draw here and gets Gareth so might improve. Honestly cannot dismiss any runner totally with even #4 Dusty Kalena who has run last and 2nd last at his 2 runs having a flukers chance as the runs actually haven't been too bad. Good race to stay out of in my opinion
Ratings 6/5,7/9/2,8/4/field
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 6
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 26
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 34
7 FORTY TWO GRAND scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 4.5
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
Tricky little race this and whilst I think #1 Lugovoi Leis will win I can see him being ridiculous odds due to a combination of barrier 1, Gareth driving, good numerical form, small field but still have to tip him even if backing him is another matter. When laying short odds, I don't want any question marks and there are a few with Lugovoi as despite leading all the way 2 starts back his best runs have always been when driven with cover and despite it being late in the year, he is still a 3yo taking on some very seasoned horses. He was also clearly beaten by a couple of runners in this field at his last start as a $2.0 favourite but it was a funnily run race and he drew barrier 12 on that occasion so don't read too much into that formline. So whilst I think he wins, I wouldn't be rushing in. #8 Flight To Mikinos is another 3yo who draws to trail the fav and if there are any chinks in the armour will be in the right place to strike. #3 Teejay Fella has been very good at both runs since a spell and is a legitimate winning hope here. #9 Twograndahand is an opportunist type who can figure if the race is run to suit and both #5 Little Vance Lot and #7 Forty Two Grand are going okay but will need luck from their draws if they are to figure as winning hopes. Geez I get those 2 horses mixed up (Forty Two Grand and Twograndahand) and they always seem to be in the same race every week just to make it tougher. Of the rest, #4 Toucha Revenge would be some hope on best form so include in exotics
Ratings 1/8/3/9/5,7/4
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 3.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1) 26
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
11 SAFE AND SMART 7
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ scr
#4 Topotheclouds has form around some very good horses but is becoming a bit of a professional bridesmaid of late which is a concern. Has been perfectly driven at past few and has looked the winner every time but failed to finish off so is hard to back with any confidence especially when combined with the fact he is infinitely better with a sit despite having good gatespeed. Still have him on top here though as he only got beaten 3 metres in a 57.7 last half at previous run and nothing else in the race has been breaking the minute for the run home. #1 Hydehurst Boy was very good leading throughout first up after copping mid race pressure and pretty plain last time when driven off the speed and didn't run on when they only ran home in 62 so it depends which one turns up as to his chances. Maybe he is just a leader. #11 Safe And Smart is very dour but will be around the mark somewhere but reckon his lack of high speed makes him a place prospect only. #10 Cullens Count is another best suited to a front row draw but going okay and a definite place prospect. Both #2 Bertils Rocket and #5 Pearlsfromheaven are opportunist types who need the right run to figure but could definitely surprise if they did. Can't see anything else winning the race but #8 Lady Eleanor draws to follow the pegs so might sneak a place
Ratings 4/1/11/10/2,5/8
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 3
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 5.5
3 NEW YORK FELLA 6
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 21
12 CRASH CART 34
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
#1 Still Royal was very impressive winning in Launceston last time after working in the run then racing away in the straight in a 58.7 final half. This is a bit tougher and the run to the first corner becomes ultra important to his chances with some speed outside him in #3 and #6. Still reckon he will kick through and retain the front and if he does is clearly the one to beat. #2 Prettyboytoby has had no luck at all recently but thats the life of a sit/sprint horse as he must be driven for luck, this is his best draw in ages though and therefore should settle much closer than usual and be right in the finsh. #3 New York Fella has returned to something like his best at past couple and if he managed to lead would be mighty hard to toss but still some hope if he didn't. #9 Thabela Brioso won well last time but this is much harder but still some hope. The rest are all quite even and all could run into a placing without totally surprising. Think Broughton may be under the odds after its last win when was driven beatifully to not go around a horse from a similar draw but runs like that don't occur too often
Ratings 1/2/3/9/field
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 17
6 DAYTIME JERRY 11
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 11
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
#11 Biggernbettermax has disappointed a couple of times being held up for a late crack at them but be very surprised if he isn't put into the race earlier this time as it is a drop in grade compared to those runs and did win like a good horse 2 runs back. #8 Willie Winalot is no star but tries hard and has chased home some good ones recently and whilst the draw does him no favours is sure to appreciate the drop in class. Reckon one of that pair will win but concede some hope to #1 Ark Raid who was perfectly driven to place last time and should get a good trip this time, #10 Cardinal Dreamer ran 2nd to Saturday Nights a couple of runs back so would be right in the mix with a repeat of that but did enjoy a gun run that night and both #4 King Of Jewels and #6 Daytime Jerry looked disappointing on face value last start but the bolter of the field pulled 3 wide in front of them at the 500 and got in their way so prepared to overlook those runs and Daytime Jerry also carried a flat tyre. #5 Inchbyinch and #10 Loaded Bomber fought out a very average race last time and will find his a lot tougher but maybe Inchbyinch could sneak a place with the right run
Ratings 11/8/1,4,6,10/5
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 4.5
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN scr
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6.5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 8
7 RONNIE RAT 13
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.5
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 26
#8 Cosmic Under Fire has to go on top as has been winning very similar races of late and the 20m maximum backmark in a lower assessed race actually means he meets most of these better off for beating them recently but still not a good thing by any means. The big thing in his favour is that he is versatile and can be driven in whatever manner is necessary given the tempo of the race. I am warming a little to the claimer #1 Waterloo Bay who is way up in class but is simply flying and gets a 20m lift on most of his rivals here, plus looks certain to lead so will definitely be including him as leaders in stands are always some hope. #4 Majestic Emperor has been very good at past couple but was beaten on his merits by the fav 2 starts back then got away with blue murder in front last time (47.6 lead time was laughable then a 34.6 first quarter) when dashed home to win so formline might be a tad suspect. Also cannot totally exclude any of #5 Gettysburgh Address, #6 Yuschenko Leis who was driven too aggressively last time or #7 Ronnie Rat who is a very good stand start horse. #10 Jilliby Rio was also a decent run at first run from a break so has place claims
Ratings 8/1/4/6/5/7/10
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 21
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 8
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4.5
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
#2 Kristins Niadh has run placings at past 4 starts behind the 2 best fillies in the state in Benediction and Klebnikova Leis and gets into a very winnable race here. She draws well, has gatespeed, should lead and this race is over the mile trip so she ticks a lot of boxes so is clearly the one to beat. #5 Stone Skipper has quite similar formlines and it is only the barrier draw that leads me to favour Kristins Niadh. One of those two should win on exposed form but a bit of a watch on #3 Noelsgirl who was well supported at only run but got it wrong and went for a spell, she resumes here without a trial but is an obvious watch. #4 Sunrise Lady has been okay at both starts to date and whilst I doubt she can trouble the favs is a must for exotics as is #8 Flashy Icon who has also gone okay in both starts so far. #1 Rosie Halo and #9 Guernica have been respectable at the trials so come into the mix for exotics as well
Ratings 2/5/3?/4,8/field
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 6
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 2.8
11 SING AND DANCE 3.5
Pretty light on for chances this race and have settled on #11 Sing And Dance to topple the likely favourite in #10 Artifice. They met in the same race 2 weeks ago and whilst Artifice beat Sing And Dance home, the latter pulled her head off in the run. Will obviously be given a quiet time early from this gate so should settle better and have a better kick left at the finish. #10 Artifice has been slightly disappointing at both runs this time in despite winning here last start, she has led and walked as an odds on fav in both runs and found little first up then had a dream run in front and just held off #7 Arkabe Jewel last time so would want better odds than she is going to be from this draw despite the average field. #2 Modern Lobell ran her best race in ages last start and if she found the front here which is a distinct chance she would be right in the mix given a repeat performance. #7 Arkabe Jewel got very close to Artifice last start but had a cosy run and a tad concerned with this draw but will be in the finish somewhere with any luck. That quartet look clearly better than the rest with #3 Taspacedotcom being next best as has been trialling fairly as has #4 Auntyliz but she hasn't produced anything of note at the races as yet
Ratings 11/10/2/7/3
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.2
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ scr
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 26
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
7 MOIRA KITE 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 21
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Looks a good race for #1 Sweetchillifilly but keep in mind she has only won 4 races from 83 starts and been placed on 26 occasions so not a great strike rate. She also hasn't won for 21 starts and been placed 7 times since her last win but Gareth has driven her 8 times in that period for 6 placings so obviously has some affinity with her and jumps on again here. She should lead and provided nothing silly happens should get a soft run given the class of field and if that happens there shouldn't be any excuses. The main and possibly only danger appears to be #6 Special Gallenti who I thought ran very well last time getting attacked in front and only being beaten 6 metres in a 1.59 rate and whilst I can't see him crossing the pole here he will still run a race. #4 Unrivalled has been terribly disappointing recently but did go a touch better last time and should get a good trip from this gate. The query runner is #10 Chanceabet who resumes for a new stable with atrocious form but he does have plenty of ability when right so keep tabs on the market for any confidence. The rest are simply not going well enough to win a race but due to the nature of the field they could all sneak into the latter placings somewhere
Ratings 1/6/4,10/field
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 3.5
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN scr
3 INNASBROOK 4.5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3.5
5 SAAB QUALITY 3.5
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 201
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 201
10 MASTERAMA 201
Extremely difficult race to start the evening with multiple winning hopes and it all comes down to how it is run. For that reason and purely on my speed map, I have opted for the dour #4 Iden Justasmyrk as top pick who was soundly beaten by Saab Quality last week but reckon he might roll to the front and always grows a leg in that role. His best form however has been when driven by Nat Emery so the fact she isn't driving sours my confidence a tad but still goes on top. #1 Ashkalini returned to racing in slashing style versus her own age and sex and despite taking on the boys here is going to get a gun trip. #5 Saab Quality was awesome demolishing a similar field last week and is sure to go forward and make his own luck again but its worth noting the last time he sat outside Justasmyrk he was clearly held but does get Gareth on this time. It shows the depth of this race in that I haven't mentioned #3 Innasbrook as yet who has been very good winning both starts since a let up but has found the front both times and doubt he can lead here and might struggle to beat these if he doesn't lead. Of the rest, #7 Denvers Boy was heavily backed and bolted in last week by 12 metres but this is much stronger and from the draw I rate him a place prospect only. No confidence in the race at all though as evidenced by my market with the top 4 picks very even, #7 a clear 5th pick and that all of #6, #8, #9 and #10 are totally outclassed and be gobsmacked if any of them ran in the first four
Ratings 4/1,5/3/7
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 13
9 POKER STORM 7
Another hard race to sort out and have settled on the well bred #6 Winewomenandsong who I know was lucky to win his only start and did get a perfect trip but there were also plenty of positives in the win. Its easy to say he only ran past an extremely unlucky Quastor Centurion who must have lost 40 metres after getting knocked over but don't overlook the fact he finished off in 28.8 and also ran past Semose Twenty who would be a huge chance in this. Don't know much about its gatespeed but still happy to have him on top. The state's leading trainer Phillip Ford also has 2 runners resuming from a spell who both won their previous race before the break in #5 Odins Dragon Rider and #7 Lauras Happy Time which makes it almost impossible to sort out as neither has trialled publicly but both have to be kept extremely safe. #9 Poker Storm was disappointing last time but may go better driven cold as in previous runs, #8 Smokin Mustard had good form earlier in the year but form has tapered off lately but should get a cheap run. #2 Brezhnev Leis was just fair first up but has a better draw here and gets Gareth so might improve. Honestly cannot dismiss any runner totally with even #4 Dusty Kalena who has run last and 2nd last at his 2 runs having a flukers chance as the runs actually haven't been too bad. Good race to stay out of in my opinion
Ratings 6/5,7/9/2,8/4/field
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 6
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 26
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 34
7 FORTY TWO GRAND scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 4.5
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
Tricky little race this and whilst I think #1 Lugovoi Leis will win I can see him being ridiculous odds due to a combination of barrier 1, Gareth driving, good numerical form, small field but still have to tip him even if backing him is another matter. When laying short odds, I don't want any question marks and there are a few with Lugovoi as despite leading all the way 2 starts back his best runs have always been when driven with cover and despite it being late in the year, he is still a 3yo taking on some very seasoned horses. He was also clearly beaten by a couple of runners in this field at his last start as a $2.0 favourite but it was a funnily run race and he drew barrier 12 on that occasion so don't read too much into that formline. So whilst I think he wins, I wouldn't be rushing in. #8 Flight To Mikinos is another 3yo who draws to trail the fav and if there are any chinks in the armour will be in the right place to strike. #3 Teejay Fella has been very good at both runs since a spell and is a legitimate winning hope here. #9 Twograndahand is an opportunist type who can figure if the race is run to suit and both #5 Little Vance Lot and #7 Forty Two Grand are going okay but will need luck from their draws if they are to figure as winning hopes. Geez I get those 2 horses mixed up (Forty Two Grand and Twograndahand) and they always seem to be in the same race every week just to make it tougher. Of the rest, #4 Toucha Revenge would be some hope on best form so include in exotics
Ratings 1/8/3/9/5,7/4
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 3.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1) 26
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
11 SAFE AND SMART 7
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ scr
#4 Topotheclouds has form around some very good horses but is becoming a bit of a professional bridesmaid of late which is a concern. Has been perfectly driven at past few and has looked the winner every time but failed to finish off so is hard to back with any confidence especially when combined with the fact he is infinitely better with a sit despite having good gatespeed. Still have him on top here though as he only got beaten 3 metres in a 57.7 last half at previous run and nothing else in the race has been breaking the minute for the run home. #1 Hydehurst Boy was very good leading throughout first up after copping mid race pressure and pretty plain last time when driven off the speed and didn't run on when they only ran home in 62 so it depends which one turns up as to his chances. Maybe he is just a leader. #11 Safe And Smart is very dour but will be around the mark somewhere but reckon his lack of high speed makes him a place prospect only. #10 Cullens Count is another best suited to a front row draw but going okay and a definite place prospect. Both #2 Bertils Rocket and #5 Pearlsfromheaven are opportunist types who need the right run to figure but could definitely surprise if they did. Can't see anything else winning the race but #8 Lady Eleanor draws to follow the pegs so might sneak a place
Ratings 4/1/11/10/2,5/8
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 3
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 5.5
3 NEW YORK FELLA 6
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 21
12 CRASH CART 34
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
#1 Still Royal was very impressive winning in Launceston last time after working in the run then racing away in the straight in a 58.7 final half. This is a bit tougher and the run to the first corner becomes ultra important to his chances with some speed outside him in #3 and #6. Still reckon he will kick through and retain the front and if he does is clearly the one to beat. #2 Prettyboytoby has had no luck at all recently but thats the life of a sit/sprint horse as he must be driven for luck, this is his best draw in ages though and therefore should settle much closer than usual and be right in the finsh. #3 New York Fella has returned to something like his best at past couple and if he managed to lead would be mighty hard to toss but still some hope if he didn't. #9 Thabela Brioso won well last time but this is much harder but still some hope. The rest are all quite even and all could run into a placing without totally surprising. Think Broughton may be under the odds after its last win when was driven beatifully to not go around a horse from a similar draw but runs like that don't occur too often
Ratings 1/2/3/9/field
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 17
6 DAYTIME JERRY 11
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 11
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
#11 Biggernbettermax has disappointed a couple of times being held up for a late crack at them but be very surprised if he isn't put into the race earlier this time as it is a drop in grade compared to those runs and did win like a good horse 2 runs back. #8 Willie Winalot is no star but tries hard and has chased home some good ones recently and whilst the draw does him no favours is sure to appreciate the drop in class. Reckon one of that pair will win but concede some hope to #1 Ark Raid who was perfectly driven to place last time and should get a good trip this time, #10 Cardinal Dreamer ran 2nd to Saturday Nights a couple of runs back so would be right in the mix with a repeat of that but did enjoy a gun run that night and both #4 King Of Jewels and #6 Daytime Jerry looked disappointing on face value last start but the bolter of the field pulled 3 wide in front of them at the 500 and got in their way so prepared to overlook those runs and Daytime Jerry also carried a flat tyre. #5 Inchbyinch and #10 Loaded Bomber fought out a very average race last time and will find his a lot tougher but maybe Inchbyinch could sneak a place with the right run
Ratings 11/8/1,4,6,10/5
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 4.5
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN scr
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6.5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 8
7 RONNIE RAT 13
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.5
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 26
#8 Cosmic Under Fire has to go on top as has been winning very similar races of late and the 20m maximum backmark in a lower assessed race actually means he meets most of these better off for beating them recently but still not a good thing by any means. The big thing in his favour is that he is versatile and can be driven in whatever manner is necessary given the tempo of the race. I am warming a little to the claimer #1 Waterloo Bay who is way up in class but is simply flying and gets a 20m lift on most of his rivals here, plus looks certain to lead so will definitely be including him as leaders in stands are always some hope. #4 Majestic Emperor has been very good at past couple but was beaten on his merits by the fav 2 starts back then got away with blue murder in front last time (47.6 lead time was laughable then a 34.6 first quarter) when dashed home to win so formline might be a tad suspect. Also cannot totally exclude any of #5 Gettysburgh Address, #6 Yuschenko Leis who was driven too aggressively last time or #7 Ronnie Rat who is a very good stand start horse. #10 Jilliby Rio was also a decent run at first run from a break so has place claims
Ratings 8/1/4/6/5/7/10
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 21
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 8
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4.5
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
#2 Kristins Niadh has run placings at past 4 starts behind the 2 best fillies in the state in Benediction and Klebnikova Leis and gets into a very winnable race here. She draws well, has gatespeed, should lead and this race is over the mile trip so she ticks a lot of boxes so is clearly the one to beat. #5 Stone Skipper has quite similar formlines and it is only the barrier draw that leads me to favour Kristins Niadh. One of those two should win on exposed form but a bit of a watch on #3 Noelsgirl who was well supported at only run but got it wrong and went for a spell, she resumes here without a trial but is an obvious watch. #4 Sunrise Lady has been okay at both starts to date and whilst I doubt she can trouble the favs is a must for exotics as is #8 Flashy Icon who has also gone okay in both starts so far. #1 Rosie Halo and #9 Guernica have been respectable at the trials so come into the mix for exotics as well
Ratings 2/5/3?/4,8/field
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 6
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 2.8
11 SING AND DANCE 3.5
Pretty light on for chances this race and have settled on #11 Sing And Dance to topple the likely favourite in #10 Artifice. They met in the same race 2 weeks ago and whilst Artifice beat Sing And Dance home, the latter pulled her head off in the run. Will obviously be given a quiet time early from this gate so should settle better and have a better kick left at the finish. #10 Artifice has been slightly disappointing at both runs this time in despite winning here last start, she has led and walked as an odds on fav in both runs and found little first up then had a dream run in front and just held off #7 Arkabe Jewel last time so would want better odds than she is going to be from this draw despite the average field. #2 Modern Lobell ran her best race in ages last start and if she found the front here which is a distinct chance she would be right in the mix given a repeat performance. #7 Arkabe Jewel got very close to Artifice last start but had a cosy run and a tad concerned with this draw but will be in the finish somewhere with any luck. That quartet look clearly better than the rest with #3 Taspacedotcom being next best as has been trialling fairly as has #4 Auntyliz but she hasn't produced anything of note at the races as yet
Ratings 11/10/2/7/3
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.2
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ scr
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 26
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
7 MOIRA KITE 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 21
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Looks a good race for #1 Sweetchillifilly but keep in mind she has only won 4 races from 83 starts and been placed on 26 occasions so not a great strike rate. She also hasn't won for 21 starts and been placed 7 times since her last win but Gareth has driven her 8 times in that period for 6 placings so obviously has some affinity with her and jumps on again here. She should lead and provided nothing silly happens should get a soft run given the class of field and if that happens there shouldn't be any excuses. The main and possibly only danger appears to be #6 Special Gallenti who I thought ran very well last time getting attacked in front and only being beaten 6 metres in a 1.59 rate and whilst I can't see him crossing the pole here he will still run a race. #4 Unrivalled has been terribly disappointing recently but did go a touch better last time and should get a good trip from this gate. The query runner is #10 Chanceabet who resumes for a new stable with atrocious form but he does have plenty of ability when right so keep tabs on the market for any confidence. The rest are simply not going well enough to win a race but due to the nature of the field they could all sneak into the latter placings somewhere
Ratings 1/6/4,10/field
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