Just bumping this back to the top
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race but this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS scr
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.5
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at the start in his last mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and the trio of #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1) scr
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading but is some hope if finds the pegs again, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift on recent efforts, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 5
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART scr
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 5
10 DEVIOUS JASPER scr
11 THE MUSICIAN 9
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) scr
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 15
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 9
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there so despite it being a very weak race she did run the time. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under her here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then but not at silly odds as there are question marks around the strength of the formline and a couple of query runners. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good as had a ton of gatespeed and was tough (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore at first Aussie start and won from memory which is unheard of, especially for a 3yo filly taking on older horses) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite not living up to the early promise so must respect at first Tassie start. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
