After a disappointing night Sunday, I am hoping to redeem myself a bit here but it is very, very difficult which is usually the case with these lower prizemoney meetings. Tonight is especially hard though with numerous runners resuming from spells and 6 horses having their first run in the state. Do get some very strange odds at these meetings so my tact is usually just to play around with the value and take exotics
Race 1
1 BETTORS EXPRESS 4.5
2 HELLO JASON DENNIS 17
3 MONITA EM 34
4 SMOKIN MUSTARD 2.2
5 DIEBERDEVIL 2.5
6 CROMBIE BAY scr
7 AWESOME BUDDY 17
Small field with limited hopes and not much value. #4 Smokin Mustard resumes from a short letup but has trialled pretty well for his return and on form prior to a break would beat this lot so prepared to punt on him. #5 Diebercharged is also resuming looks the main danger as has never run a bad race. I Thought #1 Bettors Express was pretty average last Sunday but courtesy of the draw and form prior to last run he has to be respected as the other winning chance. The first starters in #2 Hello Jason Dennis and #6 Awesome Buddy have both only trialled fairly but watch for any market moves. #3 Monita Em can safely be ruled out after sitting leaders back and being gone at the bell last time
Ratings 4/5/1/2?6?
Race 2
1 FANTASY ROCKS 4
2 MOIRA KITE 26
3 MASTERAMA 26
4 GUNBOWER JACK 34
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 8
6 ASHINAGA 8
7 OMBRE OPERATEUR 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING FOR A DAY 5.5
9 DREAMON DONNY 34
10 HARBHAJAN 3.5
Hard to assess with my 2 top raters both resuming from spells. #10 Harbhajan has to also overcome the 10 gate over the mile trip but was impressive at the trials and if he found his best Victorian form would beat these so on the basis of that trial he goes on top despite the draw. #1 Fantasy Rocks was disappointing at first few Tassie starts and resumes here without a trial but strikes a weak race, draws the pole over the mile and always went best over sprint trips in Victoria so watch for any betting moves. #8 King For A Day has been racing in stronger races but draws awkwardly here but will be in the finish with any luck. Of the rest, both #5 Red River Gee Gee and #6 Ashinaga will probably press forward early and if one of them found the pegs would come right into play and #7 Ombre Operateur is going better than form would suggest so include in exotics
Ratings 10/1/8/5,6/7
Race 3
1 NEW YORK FELLA 5
2 THE BULLIONAIRE 3.8
3 ONTICK 3.2
4 OUR VILLAGE 21
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 13
6 TWOGRANDAHAND 5
7 TOUCHA REVENGE 13
#3 Ontick has never been one of mine as always promises and rarely delivers and is always in the market and I can see him going around at short odds again here and if that is the case I will be potting him. In my eyes, its a pretty even race with three other main chances in #2 The Bullionaire who won well last time, #6 Twograndahand has form pretty similar to Ontick actually so they should actually be around the same price and #1 New York Fella is also close to a win. Cannot rule out either #5 Prince Planet who has been slaughtered lately or #7 Toucha Revenge who would be right in the market from a better gate. #4 Our Village resmes from a 2 year spell and trial form has just been fair
Ratings 2/1,3,6/5,7
Race 4
1 BROUGHTON 4
2 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7.5
3 MISTOVER FIZZ 7
4 HONEST ART 5
5 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 51
6 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
7 MARACAS BAY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 6
10 RIVER OF SHADOWS 34
11 GIRLS IN PINK 51
12 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
#1 Broughton lacks a bit of early dash but is going very well lately and if he does get crossed will still be the one to beat with any luck. #4 Honest Art has been placed in 9 of 13 starts and against better than these so looks a good EW chance again. The big query being the ex Victorian #9 James Mackenzie who has run good races at times usually from front row draws but should get a good run through here on the back of its stablemate so watch if any confidence in the betting for him. #2 Little Miss Madam is no star but has gatespeed and whacks away, #3 Mistover Fizz is honest and if it gets the right run could surprise. Also spotted #8 Woodland Chapel run a bottler at huge odds last time but had never done anything prior but would be around the mark with a repeat of last run and the only other possible chance is #7 Maracas Bay
Ratings 1,4/9/2,3/8/7
Race 5
1 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 6
2 UNRIVALLED 4.5
3 PHANTOM JASPER 13
4 BERTILS ROCKET 11
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
6 PARADIGM GIRL 13
7 JACK LESLIE 6.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 9
9 BUNJIL BOY 13
10 ASHINAGA (Em 1) scr
11 TOPPA KARALTA 26
12 PADDY MY BOY 41
13 SWEETCHILLYFILLY 17
Hardly know where to start with this lot they are that even, actually they nearly all go around in the same race every week with about 8 metres separating them so it purely comes down to luck in running. I eventually settled on #2 Unrivalled as my top pick purely on the basis that I think he will get the right run. #7 Jack Leslie is probably the best horse in the race but will have to work from the gate which makes it hard for him. #1 Mountain Momma won well last time which was a marked improvement on previous form but from barrier 1 and Gareth on board there is no reason why it can't repeat the win. I have also blackbooked #8 Liskens Gift for when it draws to lead so if silly odds here will have something on despite the horror draw for a staying type
Ratings 2/1,7,8/3,4,5/6,9/13
Race 6
1 ARKABE JEWEL 11
2 DUNDEES KNIFE 8
3 THIRTYSIXTOES 11
4 SEYMOUR GOLD (Em 1) scr
5 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
6 AUNTYLIZ 7
7 THE ACES 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 INNASBROOK 9
9 TZU TZU PETALS 41
10 SAFE AND SMART 7
11 BE GOOD JENNA 17
12 RUBYS LIFE 9
13 MODERN LOBELL 26
Dead set raffle this race and have opted for #5 Daytime Jerry who was badly held up last time and reckon he will push forward and make his own luck here, if I thought he would lead I would be really keen actually. Couple of big queries in the race are #6 Auntyliz who continues to trial well but misbehave at the races but could definitely win this on trial performances and #10 Safe And Smart is first up in the state and was okay in a pretty handy race at Terang last time and gets Gareth so must be respected. #12 Rubys Life is going a lot better than figure form suggests but the draw makes it very hard again whereas the draw brings all of #1 Arkabe Jewel, #2 Dundees Knife and #3 Thirtysixtoes into play. I also have a huge query on #8 Innasbrook who looked a very good horse in the making 12 months ago but his form tapered off badly but resumes here without a trial so monitor betting moves with him very closely
Ratings 5/6,10/8?/1,2,3,12/7,13
Race 7
1 ROSLYN AREFLYING 34
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 13
3 PANS ILLUSION scr
4 RONNIE RAT 11
5 ALPINE ART NZ 21
6 REDSIDE SHREK 1.7
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ULOS 8
9 ROCK AND RUN 34
Looks a good race for #6 Redside Shrek to bounce back to the winners list in. Has run placings at 3 of past 4 starts in final halves of 57.4, 55.9 and 57.6 and can't see anything in this race running those sorts of times so should use his class edge. #7 Majestic Emperor looks the only horse capable of beating him at his first start back in Tassie. He had been disappointing in both Queensland and Victoria but did trial okay here recently so must be kept safe. Of the rest, #8 Ulos is always a place hope at this level and #4 Ronnie Rat goes best in stands but is still a tad underrated in my opinion. I also thought that #2 Little Vance Lot ran a great race at odds last time so might be some value for exotics
Ratings 6/7/2,4,8
Race 8
1 PENNYS DRAGON 2.8
2 MAROSSI 7
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 8
4 NIBEBO 34
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 SWEETEN THE POT 6
#1 Pennys Dragon has been very good at past 2 starts and draws to get every hope here. #5 Flight To Mikinos may be silly odds here after looking disappointing on face value last time but did run a quick lead time and first quarter so I am prepared to overlook the run and if he could get across these early would be a huge chance. #6 Sweeten The Pot has been extremely disappointing of late but would smash these at his best. #2 Marossi is an opportunist type but should get the right run here and #3 Bayfield High ran a cheeky race at odds last time and definitely isn't the worst. #4 Nibebo is outclassed
Ratings 1/5/6/2,3
Race 9
1 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 6
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 1.6
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 8
4 LASER MOUNTAIN ($5,000) scr
5 BOOZY ROUGE ($6,000) 8
6 BYGONE ERA ($6,000) 8
Stand start claimer to end the night and #2 Waterloo Bay looks a standout. Did a power of work last time in a similar field and just left them for dead at the 400 and the 2nd horse that day (Bonnie Wee Laddie) has since come out and bolted in so the formline is tremendous. The rest are almost impossible to split and have opted for #1 My Centurion as the main danger courtesy of the draw, having first start for new stable and getting Gareth to drive so looks the only danger to fav who has beaten the rest of them convincingly of late
Ratings 2/1/3/4/5
