Just bumping this back to the top
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) scr
2 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
3 MARACAS BAY 8
4 JAMES MACKENZIE scr
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 41
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 34
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 3
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 51
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $3 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA scr
Hard race to sort out courtesy of the ex kiwi #2 Spendit who won 3 of 5 starts in NZ and is having first Tassie start here. Can guage a rough formline as ran 3rd to another horse that came to Tassie in Domani Gem and have assessed its price based on what Domani Gem would be but betting moves are the best way to guage. #9 Loaded To Run has had no luck at all recently and looks a good EW bet here from the good trailing draw. #1 An Eye For An Eye has had 2 runs for the Gary Bailey stable now and was very good at first start and pretty average last time, from this draw however really gets his chance so is a must include. #8 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed at past couple when well in commission but will get a soft run here so wouldn't surprise. #4 Ontick looked pretty plain winning last time in my eyes after being gifted the front so prepared to risk and #10 Twograndahand was in that same race that Ontick won and was probably a better run despite not winning so may be the blowout
Ratings 2,9/1/8/4,10
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but doubt she will but she has a stack of ability. I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. That quartet looks clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
#9 Quastor Centurion has taken all before him this season winning all 6 starts. He is also very versatile in that he can win from in front or from behind and really deserves to win this feature race. The main dangers appear to be the Rattray stablemates in #2 Bettor Draw and #11 Beautide who are both pretty good in their own right. It is interesting to note that Gareth cannot drive either of them as he is a part owner of #4 Hangover Joe and is obligated to drive it under the rules of racing so don't read much into the respective choice of drivers. One of that trio should definitely win the race but if playing exotics then include #1 Iden Noshot, #4 Hangover Joe, #5 Apache River and #8 Semose Twenty
Ratings 9/2/11/1,8/4,5
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 6
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4.5
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Pretty open race which will probably be determined by the early speed battle which is actually the case in a lot of mile races. #5 Phantom Jasper has gatespeed but so do a few underneath him but provided he doesn't work too hard early would be the one to beat. I do have a healthy respect for #4 Chanceabet who has a formline of 9990x but does have ability when right and has trialled okay recently so don't dismiss. #6 The Bullionaire is probably the best horse in the race ability wise but has to be driven cold and never keen on those types in mile races, if they overdo it early though he might be the one. Outside of that trio the rest are quite even so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 5/4,6/1,2/8,9
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Ratings 1/3,5/2,6
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 5
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
