Watching Villagem win the Chariots Of Fire last night immediately made me think of what may have been with Cody Maverick who tragically broke a leg in the 2yo Breeders Crown final in 2008 and was put down.
Just to give a quick background on Cody Maverick, he actually got beaten at his first 3 starts at places like Scottsdale and St Marys but anybody could see that there was a huge motor there when he put it all together. And put it together he did, he won his next 9 starts including the semi final of the Breeders Crown where he beat Captain Joy and Garnet River (who actually ran the quinella in the final when Cody crashed to the track).
Villagem and Cody Maverick have a remarkable similarity in a lot of ways, they were both bred at the same property at Beaconsfield by Fred Barker, their dams were actually mother and daughter (which made Cody an "uncle" to Villagem in human terms despite being the same age), they met 3 times on the racetrack with Cody winning all 3 but Villagem ran the quinella twice and was 3rd in the other race and they both currently have a brother by Art Major who will be turning 2 this year so watch out for the names of Big Zee and Majorama in the new season.
I also just looked at the results of the Dandy Patch (the premier race for 2yo colts and geldings in Tasmania) in 2008 and the first four over the line were Cody Maverick, Villagem, Make A Memory and Babyitsu so it really was a stellar 2yo crop that year and the similarities still persist to this day. Both Make A Memory and Babyitsu were formerly trained by Neville Webberly who has since been disqualified but Make A Memory is now trained by Lisa and David Miles (who train Villagem) and Babyitsu was purchased by Wayne and Gaye Rattray last year who were the owners of Cody Maverick.
It really has been a great family and I really think that a 2yo filly currently racing in Codie Karalta (a half sister to Villagem) has a huge future as exudes a lot of the traits of Cody Maverick in that she has tons of ability but is still her own worst enemy currently but she will be very good once this racing caper clicks with her.
He is a seriously good horse Villagem but I cannot help thinking about Cody Maverick whenever I see him go around as to whether he could be matching the deeds of his "nephew".
Whilst I am touching upon the deeds of Tasmanian Harness families, it would be remiss of me not to make mention of the undisputed queen of Tasmanian breeding in Barrington Lass who has thrown an unbelievable 15 individual winners which I believe ties her for the Australian record. The most impressive part with her though is in addition to the quantity of the winners there has been undoubted quality. Offspring include Bar Ron (16 wins), Barrington Belle (33 wins 1.51.6), Alby Albert (19 wins), Alla Breve (11 wins) and thats just to name a few.
Her daughters are also keeping the family name alive too with Bar Ron having had 7 foals and all incredibly have won a race including Bar Ron Boy (33 wins 1.51.8), Chip And Gale (61 wins 1.52.6) and Biggernbettermax was super impressive winning at Launceston last week. Gorse Bush has had 6 foals and all 6 have won races including Death And Taxes (15 wins 1.58.1). I am absolutely amazed just looking this stuff up I must admit.
Any potential breeders out there looking for a great maternal line to start breeding from could do far worse than a mare from this family.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Gallops Tips
Wonders will never cease but tipping a couple at the long striders
Caulfield
R6 - Tollesprit, $60EW @ $7.50
R8 - Philda, $90EW @ $4.50
Both bets with IAS, outlay $300
Caulfield
R6 - Tollesprit, $60EW @ $7.50
R8 - Philda, $90EW @ $4.50
Both bets with IAS, outlay $300
Friday, July 30, 2010
Friday Tips
Not a lot of value this evening
Melton
R2#1 Stephs Caesar, looks a moral. Was initially concerned that Mach Twain may cross him at the start but he would still sprint lane him and win anyway if that happened. He did show pretty good speed early last week looking at the replay so reckon he might hold up anyway. Price the only worry
Redcliffe
R4#4 Torque In Motion, is simply better than Abbey Tiara and she is the only possible danger
I am going to all up the pair of them (which most corps let you do nowadays) and probably get around the $2.20-2.30 mark and should be money for jam
Melton Quaddie
pretty light on here as well, reckon you get it with 7,10,11/2,7,11/4,10,12/4,11 which costs $54 for 100% but might narrow down a couple of legs to 7,10/7,11/4,10,12/4,11 which costs $24 for 100%. Those are also the middle legs of the Big 6 so if you throw 2,3,4 in first leg and anchor 1 in the last leg you look a very good chance of getting it also but its a poor value night for exotics
Also going to throw a tenner on the straight trifecta in Melton race 2 on 1/8/9 as if Stephs Caesar leads it could be a fence dominated race and these 3 should be the ones in the right spots. Probably pay $30 so worth a small bet at the odds
In the Chariots of Fire, I won't be betting but warming to the kiwi a bit in Harley Earl. Reckon I will lay Make Mine Cullen in the run if she leads for something though as can see Ima Rocket Star boring it up her this week
Melton
R2#1 Stephs Caesar, looks a moral. Was initially concerned that Mach Twain may cross him at the start but he would still sprint lane him and win anyway if that happened. He did show pretty good speed early last week looking at the replay so reckon he might hold up anyway. Price the only worry
Redcliffe
R4#4 Torque In Motion, is simply better than Abbey Tiara and she is the only possible danger
I am going to all up the pair of them (which most corps let you do nowadays) and probably get around the $2.20-2.30 mark and should be money for jam
Melton Quaddie
pretty light on here as well, reckon you get it with 7,10,11/2,7,11/4,10,12/4,11 which costs $54 for 100% but might narrow down a couple of legs to 7,10/7,11/4,10,12/4,11 which costs $24 for 100%. Those are also the middle legs of the Big 6 so if you throw 2,3,4 in first leg and anchor 1 in the last leg you look a very good chance of getting it also but its a poor value night for exotics
Also going to throw a tenner on the straight trifecta in Melton race 2 on 1/8/9 as if Stephs Caesar leads it could be a fence dominated race and these 3 should be the ones in the right spots. Probably pay $30 so worth a small bet at the odds
In the Chariots of Fire, I won't be betting but warming to the kiwi a bit in Harley Earl. Reckon I will lay Make Mine Cullen in the run if she leads for something though as can see Ima Rocket Star boring it up her this week
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Substitute Rule in Quaddies - AGAIN
As per a previous post where I aired my thoughts on this matter it all came back to me today whilst watching a couple of gallops races at Betfair Park, Sandown.
http://harnessingaliving.blogspot.com/2010/06/things-that-annoy-me-just-couple.html
Let me preface this by stipulating that I did not have a quaddie so there is no sour grapes from my point or talking through my pocket involved, it purely comes down to wanting us punters to not keep copping the short end of the stick whilst the corporate giant in TabCorp continues to try and maximise profit at the expense of their customers.
In leg 1 of the quaddie today, the topweight (Triumphant Choice) was a heavily backed $1.40 favourite so you would imagine that around 70% of quaddies were based around him. He was a late scratching at the gates and all monies therefore went onto the sub and with a pool of $406,000 that equates to nearly $300,000 worth of money on SuperTab alone (not including quaddies taken with NSW TAB, UNiTAB and Corps) so its a fair assumption that there was half a million dollars being anchored on this horse to win across Australia in the quaddie.
The double whammy with this today meant that all monies go onto the fav at the jump and it was a coin toss as to who was going to jump favourite between Gael Force and Merryweather so most punters wouldn't have known what they were on until at least halfway through the race at best. Plus, all their money went onto a 5/2 pop in the revised market which isn't fair either considering the initial bet was anchoring a 2/5 pop not a 5/2 pop!!!
Can you imagine if you had $1000 on Makybe Diva in the Melbourne Cup and she got scratched at the gate and then get told that your bet is going onto another runner, sounds ridiculous doesn't it. Simple answer to that is yes it is ridiculous yet its exactly the same principle. There is only reason TabCorp persist with this farce and it can be summed up in 8 simple letters T_U_R_N_O_V_E_R.
They certainly have the software capabilities to implement a refund or a special dividend for that matter but it all comes down to that $500,000 that was invested on the horse in the quaddie as with their percentage takeout in quaddies it would have cost them in excess of $100,000 in revenue to refund the money based on that money not being in the pool.
Think the majority of punters would prefer a special dividend if they managed to snare the other 3 legs instead of having their money put onto a runner they didn't pick and the special dividend actually becomes a win/win as punters are happy and the TAB doesn't lose their turnover. Seems a no brainer to me.
It also creates totally inflated or deflated dividends which is best described on Caulfield Cup day a couple of years back when Maldivian and Eskimo Queen were both scratched at the gate. In this instance, the winner (Master O'Reilly) was the favourite after the scratchings so ran the sub in Victoria and another runner ran favourite so was the sub in NSW and from memory the quaddie paid $9000 in Victoria that day and almost $100,000 in NSW purely because all the money from the scratchings went onto the sub. Maybe thats another reason the TAB refuse to budge on this issue, they can try and con mug punters into taking quaddies by advertising that it paid $100,000 last week.
Punters need to take a stand and if ever contacted by the TAB for survey purposes just highlight this farce that is akin to outright theft.
http://harnessingaliving.blogspot.com/2010/06/things-that-annoy-me-just-couple.html
Let me preface this by stipulating that I did not have a quaddie so there is no sour grapes from my point or talking through my pocket involved, it purely comes down to wanting us punters to not keep copping the short end of the stick whilst the corporate giant in TabCorp continues to try and maximise profit at the expense of their customers.
In leg 1 of the quaddie today, the topweight (Triumphant Choice) was a heavily backed $1.40 favourite so you would imagine that around 70% of quaddies were based around him. He was a late scratching at the gates and all monies therefore went onto the sub and with a pool of $406,000 that equates to nearly $300,000 worth of money on SuperTab alone (not including quaddies taken with NSW TAB, UNiTAB and Corps) so its a fair assumption that there was half a million dollars being anchored on this horse to win across Australia in the quaddie.
The double whammy with this today meant that all monies go onto the fav at the jump and it was a coin toss as to who was going to jump favourite between Gael Force and Merryweather so most punters wouldn't have known what they were on until at least halfway through the race at best. Plus, all their money went onto a 5/2 pop in the revised market which isn't fair either considering the initial bet was anchoring a 2/5 pop not a 5/2 pop!!!
Can you imagine if you had $1000 on Makybe Diva in the Melbourne Cup and she got scratched at the gate and then get told that your bet is going onto another runner, sounds ridiculous doesn't it. Simple answer to that is yes it is ridiculous yet its exactly the same principle. There is only reason TabCorp persist with this farce and it can be summed up in 8 simple letters T_U_R_N_O_V_E_R.
They certainly have the software capabilities to implement a refund or a special dividend for that matter but it all comes down to that $500,000 that was invested on the horse in the quaddie as with their percentage takeout in quaddies it would have cost them in excess of $100,000 in revenue to refund the money based on that money not being in the pool.
Think the majority of punters would prefer a special dividend if they managed to snare the other 3 legs instead of having their money put onto a runner they didn't pick and the special dividend actually becomes a win/win as punters are happy and the TAB doesn't lose their turnover. Seems a no brainer to me.
It also creates totally inflated or deflated dividends which is best described on Caulfield Cup day a couple of years back when Maldivian and Eskimo Queen were both scratched at the gate. In this instance, the winner (Master O'Reilly) was the favourite after the scratchings so ran the sub in Victoria and another runner ran favourite so was the sub in NSW and from memory the quaddie paid $9000 in Victoria that day and almost $100,000 in NSW purely because all the money from the scratchings went onto the sub. Maybe thats another reason the TAB refuse to budge on this issue, they can try and con mug punters into taking quaddies by advertising that it paid $100,000 last week.
Punters need to take a stand and if ever contacted by the TAB for survey purposes just highlight this farce that is akin to outright theft.
Hobart odds and ratings, Sunday August 1
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 11
2 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 4
3 THABELA BRIOSO 15
4 BOOZY ROUGE 3.2
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 21
6 ASHINAGA 34
7 UNRIVALLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET 6
9 FANTASY ROCKS 6.5
10 MEANDPOP 34
Terribly difficult race to start the evening and have settled on #4 Boozy Rouge as the top pick as has been competitive in much stronger races than this of late but with the junior driver lift looks extremely well placed. Doesn't have a ton of gatespeed but his class edge should ensure he goes mighty close. #2 Sweetchillyfilly is no star but is very honest and can see her being in the right place in the run so looks a safe EW bet. #8 Bertils Rocket must be driven for luck and if he gets the right run in transit will be storming late. #9 Fantasy Rocks has gone okay in both Tasmanian starts at similar level and will be around the mark again. #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race to this a few runs back and draws to get that type of run again so not without a chance either. #2 Thabella Brioso is a query resuming from a spell but was very disappointing last time in and would need to improve but its worth noting that she beat Lady Octavia at her last win so obviously has ability when right so monitor betting
Ratings 4/2/8/9/1/3
Race 2
1 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
2 NEW YORK FELLA 11
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 6
4 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
5 GUERRERO 17
6 OUR VILLAGE 101
7 HARBHAJAN 1.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 7
9 IM LE FREAK NZ 21
#7 Harbhajan has destroyed the field at both Tasmanian runs but its worth noting that this race has a lot more depth than what he has previously met and from the extreme draw I wouldn't be taking silly odds. He is still a clear top pick though and should win with even luck. #3 Bayfield High may be the surprise packet as he looks the leader and has run a couple of cheeky races when leading in the past so looms as the main threat. #8 Buddahs Best Mate ran his best race in ages last week and will be around the mark based on that despite the draw as is well up to this at his best. #2 New York Fella is always around the mark somewhere and from this draw is some hope also. The rest are all quite even with only #6 Our Village totally out of calculations
Ratings 7/3/8/2/1,3,4,5,9
Race 3
1 JOEY MERCURY NZ 67
2 HERNANDES 201
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 81
4 WILLY PLAY 34
5 WILLIE WINALOT 9
6 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
7 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SAFINA LEIS 9
9 BLACKPORTNLACE 201
#6 Saturday Nights has won like a very good horse at both runs and looks a good race again for him here. Whilst he has led at both starts he has shown some versatility in that he zoomed home in 56.9 off a slow speed at first start and then raced away after copping a bit of midrace pressure last time. His half brother in Babyitsu can do work in his races as well so despite the wide draw he looks the winner. #7 Iden Justasmyrk has a great record when driven by Nat Emery with 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 drives so despite Saturday Nights beating him clearly last time I still see him as the primary danger as I expect him to perform better with Nat back on. I was a little disappointed in the run of Willie Winalot last time as had every chance and just plugged home but he does have ability and has yet to run a bad one and this is a very thin race. Outside of that trio, the filly #8 Safina Leis has been chasing home the 2 favs recently but hasn't enjoyed much luck so if the breaks come might run a bit of a race. Nothing else is a chance but #4 Willy Play is a clear 5th pick
Ratings 6/7/5,8/4
Race 4
1 BAJARDO RIVER 5
2 BUNJIL BOY 17
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 BROUGHTON 9
5 JET BLACK FLYER 15
6 UNRIVALLED (Em 1) 51
7 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 13
9 CULLENS COUNT NZ 15
10 PADDY MY BOY 51
11 MOUNTAIN MOMMA scr
12 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
13 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 15
Undoubtedly one of the hardest races I have ever seen to work out and nearly every horse has a legitimate chance of winning. I settled on #7 Hydehurst Boy as the top pick as was ultra impressive first up leading all the way when heavily backed and despite the last quarter being a pedestrian 32.0 he did it on his ear and the previous 3 fractions were all good. He promised a bit early in his career but rarely delivered but maybe the penny has dropped but isn't going to find it easy here from the draw as there is speed under him so if he goes forward will have to work. #1 Bajardo River is back in the draw and also has very good gatespeed so appeals as the leader so will get her chance. #12 Harleken Wized was a good run first up in Tassie when 3 wide without cover in a 58.7 last half and never shirked the task so despite the gate is still a live hope. #3 Liskens Gift is a staying type who never gets beaten far and from this draw may surprise at odds. There are a couple of good sit/sprinters in the race in #4 Broughton and #8 The Bullionaire and the race may just pan out to suit them as well with a lot of speed off the front. Also cannot rule out #5 Jet Black Flyer who resumes but has his share of ability, #9 Cullens Count is also a rough hope as was unlucky last start when the run closed in the straight in the same race that #13 Pearls From Heaven was a beaten favourite in who had every hope and will find it tough from here. Even now I haven't mentioned either #2 Bunjil Boy and #10 Mountain Mumma who both ran a placing in similar grade last week. Just one of those races!
Ratings 7/1,12/3,4,8/5,9/2,10,13
Race 5
1 TROOPER JACK 7
2 OUR SIR LEW 51
3 PHANTOM JASPER 11
4 CANCELLARA 15
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 BAD BOY VINNY 26
7 ONTICK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TEEJAY FELLA 15
9 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
10 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 41
11 LOADED TO RUN 4.5
12 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.8
13 IM LE FREAK NZ (Em 1)
Barrier draw has evened this race right up with the 2 top picks drawing the worst barriers. I am keen on #11 Loaded To Run to upset the 3yo here though, he was shunted 4 wide when should have won clearly last time and just got nabbed on the line as it was so with better luck here is a huge chance. The 3yo Lugovoi Leis is another of the bumper Tassie 3yo crop (Gedlee, Udoit, Saturday Nights, Thirsty Mach) taking all before him as his sophomore season winds down but is getting up in grade a tad and never keen on backing 3yo horses giving a start to more seasoned horses but you simply cannot overlook his formline. Reckon one of the 2 of them will win despite the draw. #1 Trooper Jack is sure to have admirers as has the speed to utilise the draw and whilst he did enjoy a good run to win last start, they did run good time. #3 Phantom Jasper is tough and goes forward so if Trooper Jack relinqueshes the lead again he may be the beneficiary which would bring him into play. #9 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed slightly at past couple but would be right in the finish on best form and there are a number of horses with some ability who I am discounting due to their barrier but all are place hopes with the right run - #4 Cancellara, #5 Spendit, #6 Bad Boy Vinny, #7 Ontick and #8 Teejay Fella
Ratings 11/12/1,3/9/4,5,8/6,7
Race 6
1 SEMOSE TWENTY 7
2 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD 34
4 POKER STORM 13
5 KARALTA WIZARD 13
6 JOHNNYACE 21
7 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 17
9 PUT MBACK 21
10 DUSTY KALENA 67
11 IDEN NOSHOT 67
The time honoured Breeders Plate for the 2yo boys looks at the mercy of the unbeaten #7 Quastor Centurion who is unbeaten in 8 career starts. Take little notice of the narrow win last week when he led as is never impressive when he leads but never lets them past when he does. His win in the Dandy Patch was awesome and he should repeat the dose here. #1 Semose Twenty should have run 2nd to Quastor in the Dandy Patch and then boxed on well for 3rd after working last time and from this gate is the obvious danger. Both #4 Poker Storm and #5 Karalta Wizard ran 2nd to the fav at their last start which is an obvious form reference and #6 Johnnyace hasn't had any luck at all recently but faces a task from this draw. #9 Put Mback had a dream run when winning on debut and find this tougher from the draw and will also keep an eye on the market re #8 Winewomenandsong who is a Christian Cullen half brother to a Breeders Crown placegetter so certainly has the genetics.
Ratings 7/1/4,5/6,8?,9/3
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($6,000) 15
2 RONNIE RAT 6
3 ULOS 26
4 ALPINE ART NZ 34
5 SKY TOWER 5
6 JILLIBY RIO 21
7 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
8 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 5
9 JEFFERSON NZ 51
10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 13
Look to be 4 major players here and after changing my mind a few times have settled on #7 Cosmic Under Fire who got a well deserved win last time out. With only 4 runners off the front and 6 off 20 metres it will be a major bonus for whichever horse begins best from the handicap as will be in a striking position early so I do have a healthy respect for both #5 Sky Tower who was dead set slaughtered last time running a 28.9 sectional from the 1200-800m mark so completely forgets his last run and #8 Yuschenko Leis just continues to run a good race every week so can never be discounted. #2 Ronnie Rat has really stepped up this season and generally flies the stand so he should give them something to catch. #1 Waterloo Bay rises from claiming grade but is going well and also loves the stand and #10 Gettysburgh Address benefitted from some questionable drives last time but was still good enough to take advantage
Ratings 7/5,8/2/1,10
Race 8
1 BENEDICTION 1.5
2 SUNRISE LADY 17
3 KRISTINS NIADH 8
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 17
5 GUN FILLY 101
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 67
7 ZIVAS MAGIC 201
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 FLASHY ICON 26
10 AZARENKA LEIS 21
#1 Benediction has taken all before her this season with 5 wins and 3 seconds from her 8 starts and draws to lead and win again. She fell in at Launceston last week but prepared to overlook that run as I believe Gareth went far too slowly on her and it purely turned into a 400m sprint instead of a race. She should lead and win. #8 Stone Skipper ran 2nd to her in the Bandbox final and draws to follow the fav all the way here so is the obvious danger as does possess a very quick sprint. #3 Kristins Niadh ran a very close 2nd to Benediction last week where it developed into a dash home but I doubt she will get the same sort of trip from this gate but has proven that there isn't much between her and Benediction so must be included. Outside of that trio, place prospects go to #2 Sunrise Lady who ran a good race on debut and if she could manage to jump in behind the fav early would be a real place chance. #4 Klebnikova Leis hasn't quite lived up to her early promise but never runs a bad one, #10 Azarenka Leis has certainly improved of late and isn't the worst and #9 Flashy Icon also went okay on debut and may sneak into the exotics. Find it hard to see anything else getting into the mix
Ratings 1/8/3/2,4,10/9
Race 9
1 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 67
2 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
3 MY SCARLETT 26
4 SAFE AND SMART 2.5
5 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
6 WOODLAND CHAPEL 8
7 GUNBOWER JACK 67
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GO GO CISCO 21
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 13
10 HONEST ART 4.5
11 AAPENNON 4.5
12 DREAMON DONNY 67
There appears to be 4 standout chances here with #4 Safe And Smart being the top pick as looks certain to find the pegs and in both his Tasmanian runs he has done a bit of work and never shirked the issue so if he finds the pegs is certain to be the one to beat. #10 Honest Art is as honest as they come and well suited in this class, #11 Aapenon was poorly driven first up from a break then ran a terrific race last week when 2nd to Barooga Billy where they finished off in 27.9 and he never lost ground and would be a lot shorter if had drawn better. #6 Woodland Chapel looms as the only other winning hope as has really improved of late and last couple of runs have been very good. Am a shade worried about the gate but must go in exotics. The rest are only place prospects with #8 Go Go Cisco and #9 Mistover Fizz capable of running a hole with the right run
Ratings 4/10,11/6/8,9
Race 10
1 TWOGRANDAHAND 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
3 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ 3.5
5 LOADED FRANCO 6
6 TOPUP 7
7 PAUL ALBERT 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BILLABONG BERTIE 4.5
9 LITTLE VANCE LOT 11
Sees the resumption to racing of last years top filly #4 Our Zellweger who resumes from a 14 month layoff which makes it hard to be confident with the race. At her best she would lead and beat these and whilst she has gone okay at the trials its hard to know exactly where she is at. Due to her class though she goes on top. #8 Billabong Bertie ran last at his previous start but totally forgive that run as thats the only place he was going to run after holding the lead in that class and he is much better suited back to this grade. #5 Loaded Franco is also resuming from a lengthy break and does have ability and the stable is on fire so watch any betting moves closely. Both #1 Twograndahand and #6 Topup are opportunist types who can certainly win with the right run and I also concede some chance to both #2 Forty Two Grand and #9 Little Vance Lot
Ratings 4/8/1,5,6/2,9
Race 11
1 ARTIFICE 2.5
2 TARA LASSIE 41
3 ARKABE JEWEL 13
4 MODERN LOBELL 13
5 TZU TZU PETALS scr
6 SARAH ROLAND 41
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HES NO SAINT (Em 1) 34
9 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
10 KING OF JEWELS 13
11 FOXYCLOUT 17
12 ARK RAID 11
13 THE ACES 17
Have changed my mind completely here, originally had Artifice as an odds on fav but had another look at her run on Wednesday night and she was terribly disappointing after getting a soft lead in a mile race and I would want minimum $2.50 prior to backing her. Its okay to say that the filly that beat her in Launceston (Ashkalini) is a good horse in her own right but the thing that concerns me is that El Jays Modeena also ran past her and I would want good odds to back her in this. The positives are that she will be fitter for the run back and looks certain to get a soft lead again so must go on top but it is a bit of a moment of truth for her. #9 Daytime Jerry hasn't been far away in some good 3yo races lately and if there is any chinks in the armour of the fav he will be the one to find them. There is a bit of a watch on #10 King Of Jewels who has fair form in the Riverina but has only won 2 of 35 starts which is a tad concerning but must be kept safe. There are numerous place chances in this race actually, #12 Ark Raid ran a good race on debut, #4 Modern Lobell ran a giant race doing it tough at Launceston last time, #3 Arkabe Jewel lacks early dash but has plenty of aility, #11 Foxyclout has been thereabouts of late and #13 The Aces was extremely unlucky in a weakish race last time
Ratings 1/9/3,4,12/10?/11,13
1 PARADIGM GIRL 11
2 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 4
3 THABELA BRIOSO 15
4 BOOZY ROUGE 3.2
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 21
6 ASHINAGA 34
7 UNRIVALLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET 6
9 FANTASY ROCKS 6.5
10 MEANDPOP 34
Terribly difficult race to start the evening and have settled on #4 Boozy Rouge as the top pick as has been competitive in much stronger races than this of late but with the junior driver lift looks extremely well placed. Doesn't have a ton of gatespeed but his class edge should ensure he goes mighty close. #2 Sweetchillyfilly is no star but is very honest and can see her being in the right place in the run so looks a safe EW bet. #8 Bertils Rocket must be driven for luck and if he gets the right run in transit will be storming late. #9 Fantasy Rocks has gone okay in both Tasmanian starts at similar level and will be around the mark again. #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race to this a few runs back and draws to get that type of run again so not without a chance either. #2 Thabella Brioso is a query resuming from a spell but was very disappointing last time in and would need to improve but its worth noting that she beat Lady Octavia at her last win so obviously has ability when right so monitor betting
Ratings 4/2/8/9/1/3
Race 2
1 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
2 NEW YORK FELLA 11
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 6
4 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
5 GUERRERO 17
6 OUR VILLAGE 101
7 HARBHAJAN 1.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 7
9 IM LE FREAK NZ 21
#7 Harbhajan has destroyed the field at both Tasmanian runs but its worth noting that this race has a lot more depth than what he has previously met and from the extreme draw I wouldn't be taking silly odds. He is still a clear top pick though and should win with even luck. #3 Bayfield High may be the surprise packet as he looks the leader and has run a couple of cheeky races when leading in the past so looms as the main threat. #8 Buddahs Best Mate ran his best race in ages last week and will be around the mark based on that despite the draw as is well up to this at his best. #2 New York Fella is always around the mark somewhere and from this draw is some hope also. The rest are all quite even with only #6 Our Village totally out of calculations
Ratings 7/3/8/2/1,3,4,5,9
Race 3
1 JOEY MERCURY NZ 67
2 HERNANDES 201
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 81
4 WILLY PLAY 34
5 WILLIE WINALOT 9
6 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
7 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SAFINA LEIS 9
9 BLACKPORTNLACE 201
#6 Saturday Nights has won like a very good horse at both runs and looks a good race again for him here. Whilst he has led at both starts he has shown some versatility in that he zoomed home in 56.9 off a slow speed at first start and then raced away after copping a bit of midrace pressure last time. His half brother in Babyitsu can do work in his races as well so despite the wide draw he looks the winner. #7 Iden Justasmyrk has a great record when driven by Nat Emery with 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 drives so despite Saturday Nights beating him clearly last time I still see him as the primary danger as I expect him to perform better with Nat back on. I was a little disappointed in the run of Willie Winalot last time as had every chance and just plugged home but he does have ability and has yet to run a bad one and this is a very thin race. Outside of that trio, the filly #8 Safina Leis has been chasing home the 2 favs recently but hasn't enjoyed much luck so if the breaks come might run a bit of a race. Nothing else is a chance but #4 Willy Play is a clear 5th pick
Ratings 6/7/5,8/4
Race 4
1 BAJARDO RIVER 5
2 BUNJIL BOY 17
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 BROUGHTON 9
5 JET BLACK FLYER 15
6 UNRIVALLED (Em 1) 51
7 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 13
9 CULLENS COUNT NZ 15
10 PADDY MY BOY 51
11 MOUNTAIN MOMMA scr
12 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
13 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 15
Undoubtedly one of the hardest races I have ever seen to work out and nearly every horse has a legitimate chance of winning. I settled on #7 Hydehurst Boy as the top pick as was ultra impressive first up leading all the way when heavily backed and despite the last quarter being a pedestrian 32.0 he did it on his ear and the previous 3 fractions were all good. He promised a bit early in his career but rarely delivered but maybe the penny has dropped but isn't going to find it easy here from the draw as there is speed under him so if he goes forward will have to work. #1 Bajardo River is back in the draw and also has very good gatespeed so appeals as the leader so will get her chance. #12 Harleken Wized was a good run first up in Tassie when 3 wide without cover in a 58.7 last half and never shirked the task so despite the gate is still a live hope. #3 Liskens Gift is a staying type who never gets beaten far and from this draw may surprise at odds. There are a couple of good sit/sprinters in the race in #4 Broughton and #8 The Bullionaire and the race may just pan out to suit them as well with a lot of speed off the front. Also cannot rule out #5 Jet Black Flyer who resumes but has his share of ability, #9 Cullens Count is also a rough hope as was unlucky last start when the run closed in the straight in the same race that #13 Pearls From Heaven was a beaten favourite in who had every hope and will find it tough from here. Even now I haven't mentioned either #2 Bunjil Boy and #10 Mountain Mumma who both ran a placing in similar grade last week. Just one of those races!
Ratings 7/1,12/3,4,8/5,9/2,10,13
Race 5
1 TROOPER JACK 7
2 OUR SIR LEW 51
3 PHANTOM JASPER 11
4 CANCELLARA 15
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 BAD BOY VINNY 26
7 ONTICK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TEEJAY FELLA 15
9 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
10 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 41
11 LOADED TO RUN 4.5
12 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.8
13 IM LE FREAK NZ (Em 1)
Barrier draw has evened this race right up with the 2 top picks drawing the worst barriers. I am keen on #11 Loaded To Run to upset the 3yo here though, he was shunted 4 wide when should have won clearly last time and just got nabbed on the line as it was so with better luck here is a huge chance. The 3yo Lugovoi Leis is another of the bumper Tassie 3yo crop (Gedlee, Udoit, Saturday Nights, Thirsty Mach) taking all before him as his sophomore season winds down but is getting up in grade a tad and never keen on backing 3yo horses giving a start to more seasoned horses but you simply cannot overlook his formline. Reckon one of the 2 of them will win despite the draw. #1 Trooper Jack is sure to have admirers as has the speed to utilise the draw and whilst he did enjoy a good run to win last start, they did run good time. #3 Phantom Jasper is tough and goes forward so if Trooper Jack relinqueshes the lead again he may be the beneficiary which would bring him into play. #9 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed slightly at past couple but would be right in the finish on best form and there are a number of horses with some ability who I am discounting due to their barrier but all are place hopes with the right run - #4 Cancellara, #5 Spendit, #6 Bad Boy Vinny, #7 Ontick and #8 Teejay Fella
Ratings 11/12/1,3/9/4,5,8/6,7
Race 6
1 SEMOSE TWENTY 7
2 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD 34
4 POKER STORM 13
5 KARALTA WIZARD 13
6 JOHNNYACE 21
7 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 17
9 PUT MBACK 21
10 DUSTY KALENA 67
11 IDEN NOSHOT 67
The time honoured Breeders Plate for the 2yo boys looks at the mercy of the unbeaten #7 Quastor Centurion who is unbeaten in 8 career starts. Take little notice of the narrow win last week when he led as is never impressive when he leads but never lets them past when he does. His win in the Dandy Patch was awesome and he should repeat the dose here. #1 Semose Twenty should have run 2nd to Quastor in the Dandy Patch and then boxed on well for 3rd after working last time and from this gate is the obvious danger. Both #4 Poker Storm and #5 Karalta Wizard ran 2nd to the fav at their last start which is an obvious form reference and #6 Johnnyace hasn't had any luck at all recently but faces a task from this draw. #9 Put Mback had a dream run when winning on debut and find this tougher from the draw and will also keep an eye on the market re #8 Winewomenandsong who is a Christian Cullen half brother to a Breeders Crown placegetter so certainly has the genetics.
Ratings 7/1/4,5/6,8?,9/3
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($6,000) 15
2 RONNIE RAT 6
3 ULOS 26
4 ALPINE ART NZ 34
5 SKY TOWER 5
6 JILLIBY RIO 21
7 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
8 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 5
9 JEFFERSON NZ 51
10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 13
Look to be 4 major players here and after changing my mind a few times have settled on #7 Cosmic Under Fire who got a well deserved win last time out. With only 4 runners off the front and 6 off 20 metres it will be a major bonus for whichever horse begins best from the handicap as will be in a striking position early so I do have a healthy respect for both #5 Sky Tower who was dead set slaughtered last time running a 28.9 sectional from the 1200-800m mark so completely forgets his last run and #8 Yuschenko Leis just continues to run a good race every week so can never be discounted. #2 Ronnie Rat has really stepped up this season and generally flies the stand so he should give them something to catch. #1 Waterloo Bay rises from claiming grade but is going well and also loves the stand and #10 Gettysburgh Address benefitted from some questionable drives last time but was still good enough to take advantage
Ratings 7/5,8/2/1,10
Race 8
1 BENEDICTION 1.5
2 SUNRISE LADY 17
3 KRISTINS NIADH 8
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 17
5 GUN FILLY 101
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 67
7 ZIVAS MAGIC 201
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 FLASHY ICON 26
10 AZARENKA LEIS 21
#1 Benediction has taken all before her this season with 5 wins and 3 seconds from her 8 starts and draws to lead and win again. She fell in at Launceston last week but prepared to overlook that run as I believe Gareth went far too slowly on her and it purely turned into a 400m sprint instead of a race. She should lead and win. #8 Stone Skipper ran 2nd to her in the Bandbox final and draws to follow the fav all the way here so is the obvious danger as does possess a very quick sprint. #3 Kristins Niadh ran a very close 2nd to Benediction last week where it developed into a dash home but I doubt she will get the same sort of trip from this gate but has proven that there isn't much between her and Benediction so must be included. Outside of that trio, place prospects go to #2 Sunrise Lady who ran a good race on debut and if she could manage to jump in behind the fav early would be a real place chance. #4 Klebnikova Leis hasn't quite lived up to her early promise but never runs a bad one, #10 Azarenka Leis has certainly improved of late and isn't the worst and #9 Flashy Icon also went okay on debut and may sneak into the exotics. Find it hard to see anything else getting into the mix
Ratings 1/8/3/2,4,10/9
Race 9
1 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 67
2 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
3 MY SCARLETT 26
4 SAFE AND SMART 2.5
5 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
6 WOODLAND CHAPEL 8
7 GUNBOWER JACK 67
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GO GO CISCO 21
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 13
10 HONEST ART 4.5
11 AAPENNON 4.5
12 DREAMON DONNY 67
There appears to be 4 standout chances here with #4 Safe And Smart being the top pick as looks certain to find the pegs and in both his Tasmanian runs he has done a bit of work and never shirked the issue so if he finds the pegs is certain to be the one to beat. #10 Honest Art is as honest as they come and well suited in this class, #11 Aapenon was poorly driven first up from a break then ran a terrific race last week when 2nd to Barooga Billy where they finished off in 27.9 and he never lost ground and would be a lot shorter if had drawn better. #6 Woodland Chapel looms as the only other winning hope as has really improved of late and last couple of runs have been very good. Am a shade worried about the gate but must go in exotics. The rest are only place prospects with #8 Go Go Cisco and #9 Mistover Fizz capable of running a hole with the right run
Ratings 4/10,11/6/8,9
Race 10
1 TWOGRANDAHAND 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
3 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ 3.5
5 LOADED FRANCO 6
6 TOPUP 7
7 PAUL ALBERT 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BILLABONG BERTIE 4.5
9 LITTLE VANCE LOT 11
Sees the resumption to racing of last years top filly #4 Our Zellweger who resumes from a 14 month layoff which makes it hard to be confident with the race. At her best she would lead and beat these and whilst she has gone okay at the trials its hard to know exactly where she is at. Due to her class though she goes on top. #8 Billabong Bertie ran last at his previous start but totally forgive that run as thats the only place he was going to run after holding the lead in that class and he is much better suited back to this grade. #5 Loaded Franco is also resuming from a lengthy break and does have ability and the stable is on fire so watch any betting moves closely. Both #1 Twograndahand and #6 Topup are opportunist types who can certainly win with the right run and I also concede some chance to both #2 Forty Two Grand and #9 Little Vance Lot
Ratings 4/8/1,5,6/2,9
Race 11
1 ARTIFICE 2.5
2 TARA LASSIE 41
3 ARKABE JEWEL 13
4 MODERN LOBELL 13
5 TZU TZU PETALS scr
6 SARAH ROLAND 41
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HES NO SAINT (Em 1) 34
9 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
10 KING OF JEWELS 13
11 FOXYCLOUT 17
12 ARK RAID 11
13 THE ACES 17
Have changed my mind completely here, originally had Artifice as an odds on fav but had another look at her run on Wednesday night and she was terribly disappointing after getting a soft lead in a mile race and I would want minimum $2.50 prior to backing her. Its okay to say that the filly that beat her in Launceston (Ashkalini) is a good horse in her own right but the thing that concerns me is that El Jays Modeena also ran past her and I would want good odds to back her in this. The positives are that she will be fitter for the run back and looks certain to get a soft lead again so must go on top but it is a bit of a moment of truth for her. #9 Daytime Jerry hasn't been far away in some good 3yo races lately and if there is any chinks in the armour of the fav he will be the one to find them. There is a bit of a watch on #10 King Of Jewels who has fair form in the Riverina but has only won 2 of 35 starts which is a tad concerning but must be kept safe. There are numerous place chances in this race actually, #12 Ark Raid ran a good race on debut, #4 Modern Lobell ran a giant race doing it tough at Launceston last time, #3 Arkabe Jewel lacks early dash but has plenty of aility, #11 Foxyclout has been thereabouts of late and #13 The Aces was extremely unlucky in a weakish race last time
Ratings 1/9/3,4,12/10?/11,13
Couple of early tips - Thursday and Friday
Ballarat Thursday
R8#4 Absolootmagic $2.50 minimum - hammered in front last time and looks the leader here
Melton Friday
R2#1 Stephs Caesar $1.70 minimum - anybody who has watched his 2 Aussie runs will be on for plenty, looks a moral
R8#4 Absolootmagic $2.50 minimum - hammered in front last time and looks the leader here
Melton Friday
R2#1 Stephs Caesar $1.70 minimum - anybody who has watched his 2 Aussie runs will be on for plenty, looks a moral
TAB Sportsbet Chariots Of Fire Market - nothing short of embarrassing
This is almost laughable
Sportsbet No. Runner Win Place
81804 MAKE MINE CULLEN 2.70 1.42
81803 HARLEY EARL 4.00 1.75
81806 IMA ROCKET STAR 4.60 1.90
81809 VILLAGEM 6.50 2.37
81802 CAPTAIN JOY (2E) 6.50 2.37
81801 DEADSETLUCKY 8.00 2.75
81810 BUCKEYE NATION 11.00 3.50
81807 THE BAND ON RUN (1E) 13.00 4.00
81805 JACCKA SINGH 31.00 8.50
81811 GARNET RIVER 41.00 11.00
81808 INTERNATIONALPLAYBOY 81.00 21.00
81812 ERICS LEGEND 101.00 26.00
Odds updated at: 11:24:47 AM Tue 27 Jul 2010
•Subsequent scratching of runners other than bet selection may result in a deduction on quoted price according to Tabcorp table of deductions.
Based on my figures, they have set a final field market of in excess of 153% and should be embarrassed by it. It is a group 1 race with all the form outlined from 2 heats with horses with well established formlines. I can understand bookies going up with high percentages in a Colac Maiden with 16 runners with a few first starters but in a Group 1 race ....... Please!
Based on the 2 emergencies not gaining a start, the REAL prices of the favoured runners net of deductions are as follows:
Make Mine Cullen $2.30
Harley Earl $3.35
Ima Rocket Star $3.75
Villagem $5.30
Deadsetlucky $6.50
Buckeye Nation $9
There is 145% in those horses alone!!!
Fair crack of the whip guys, it is a Group 1 race with firmly established formlines for all runners so grow a set and either do it properly or don't even bother as it just smacks of not knowing your product currently despite it being one of the premier races all year.
If they stipulated that there would be no deductions for the emergencies (which they do not apart from the general spiel saying there MAY be deductions) then the market wouldn't be too bad at 132% but even then it is still way too high for one of the top races on the calendar with patently obvious formlines. Should be 125% maximum.
Sportsbet No. Runner Win Place
81804 MAKE MINE CULLEN 2.70 1.42
81803 HARLEY EARL 4.00 1.75
81806 IMA ROCKET STAR 4.60 1.90
81809 VILLAGEM 6.50 2.37
81802 CAPTAIN JOY (2E) 6.50 2.37
81801 DEADSETLUCKY 8.00 2.75
81810 BUCKEYE NATION 11.00 3.50
81807 THE BAND ON RUN (1E) 13.00 4.00
81805 JACCKA SINGH 31.00 8.50
81811 GARNET RIVER 41.00 11.00
81808 INTERNATIONALPLAYBOY 81.00 21.00
81812 ERICS LEGEND 101.00 26.00
Odds updated at: 11:24:47 AM Tue 27 Jul 2010
•Subsequent scratching of runners other than bet selection may result in a deduction on quoted price according to Tabcorp table of deductions.
Based on my figures, they have set a final field market of in excess of 153% and should be embarrassed by it. It is a group 1 race with all the form outlined from 2 heats with horses with well established formlines. I can understand bookies going up with high percentages in a Colac Maiden with 16 runners with a few first starters but in a Group 1 race ....... Please!
Based on the 2 emergencies not gaining a start, the REAL prices of the favoured runners net of deductions are as follows:
Make Mine Cullen $2.30
Harley Earl $3.35
Ima Rocket Star $3.75
Villagem $5.30
Deadsetlucky $6.50
Buckeye Nation $9
There is 145% in those horses alone!!!
Fair crack of the whip guys, it is a Group 1 race with firmly established formlines for all runners so grow a set and either do it properly or don't even bother as it just smacks of not knowing your product currently despite it being one of the premier races all year.
If they stipulated that there would be no deductions for the emergencies (which they do not apart from the general spiel saying there MAY be deductions) then the market wouldn't be too bad at 132% but even then it is still way too high for one of the top races on the calendar with patently obvious formlines. Should be 125% maximum.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Betting in Every Race Update
Full stats available on link in top right hand corner of page
Current as at July 28, 2010
Races 82
Winners 43
Return $133.68*
Strike Rate 52.4%
ROI 63.02%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
Further examining the data:
Leaders: 30
Winners: 26
Return: $69.48
Strike Rate 86.7%
ROI 131.6%
Non Leaders: 52
Winners: 17
Return: $64.20
Strike Rate 32.7%
ROI 23.4%
Current as at July 28, 2010
Races 82
Winners 43
Return $133.68*
Strike Rate 52.4%
ROI 63.02%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
Further examining the data:
Leaders: 30
Winners: 26
Return: $69.48
Strike Rate 86.7%
ROI 131.6%
Non Leaders: 52
Winners: 17
Return: $64.20
Strike Rate 32.7%
ROI 23.4%
Tassie Bets
Thought I most try and post a few live bets, haven't had a bet yet outside of a 4 leg parlay
R2 - 4,5,8
R3 - 4,7
R8 - 5,6
R9 - 4,5
Took for $5 costing $120
Race 4, have taken the quaddies so won't get too involved outside of that
$100 a win #1 but want black figures minimum
$15 a win both #5 and #9
Not going to bother as price is shocking, not bad for quaddie if he wins so no bets in the end
Quiet in race 5 also, having something on my best roughie #11 In Cruise Mode, probably be 10x20. Currently $44 but reckon he will get into around the $20 mark at the jump. Major worry for quaddie is #7 Cancellara but going to need luck from the draw so happy with this leg. Normally would spend a bit on the DD also but not overly keen on either leg to be honest so not taking one
Pretty good crop of 3yo horses in Tassie this year I think with Gedlee a dead set star, Udoit doing great things in Victoria, Saturday Nights looking awesome in both his runs and others like Lugovoi Leis and Thirsty Mach looking as if they will make very good horses as they get older
Race 6
#6 Sanreos $120 a WIN
Trifecta 4,6/4,6,7,8,9,11/1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 $70 gives 100%
Gotta love horses that don't even take part!!! I actually don't get too angry unlike a lot of punters when that happens. Had to laugh though as after the race walked the dog down to the shop and started belting down with rain halfway just to really rub it in.
Race 7
#1 Topup $40 a win
#4 Forty Two Grand $20 a win
#6 King Albert $20 a win
Gets back what I lost in race 6 anyway with Topup paying $7 - wish I did spit the dummy and unload on my top pick now lol. Simply can't have big bets on horses who have to be driven for luck though. Bit dirty that I didn't take the exotics though as I rated 1 to win from 7 and the quinella paid $20 and trifecta paid $600 and I had a small bet on the 3rd horse as well
Means I got 3 of the 4 quaddie legs with my top pick this week (and the other one didn't take part)
Race 8
Standout quinella 2/5,6 x $30 just to cover my all up a bit
Also $60 a win #5 Cosmic Under Fire
Quinella paid $10.30 and $2.20 the winner so picked up $300 on a race with minimal value. Also have roughly $108 going onto both 4,5 in race 9 from my parlay so will wait until seeing prices before deciding on bets as may even have a saver on #6 to cover the outlay
Been a pretty average night only winning $130 or so currently but with a bet to come so just going to let both 4,5 run with the parlay even though I am keen on the 4 to lead and win there is a slight doubt over the last 200m
Race 9
#6 Johnnyace $40 a win
#7 Drifting West $12 a win
#1 & 3 $6 a win
Last 200m did tell in the end with Safe Prospect but got something out of the damage with a measly $6 on the winner paying $21.70
Means a profit of around $200 for the night which is still a decent days pay I suppose despite being unhappy with my tipping, always look back though and should have made a killing in race 7 but can't complain. Won't be betting in the last but will be kicking the fav (Benediction) home for one of the owners who is an old footy team mate.
No meetings in Tassie midweek so might be quiet for a few days, last fav at Terang (Whata Body Line) is meant to be a moral but a bit short for me
R2 - 4,5,8
R3 - 4,7
R8 - 5,6
R9 - 4,5
Took for $5 costing $120
Race 4, have taken the quaddies so won't get too involved outside of that
$100 a win #1 but want black figures minimum
$15 a win both #5 and #9
Not going to bother as price is shocking, not bad for quaddie if he wins so no bets in the end
Quiet in race 5 also, having something on my best roughie #11 In Cruise Mode, probably be 10x20. Currently $44 but reckon he will get into around the $20 mark at the jump. Major worry for quaddie is #7 Cancellara but going to need luck from the draw so happy with this leg. Normally would spend a bit on the DD also but not overly keen on either leg to be honest so not taking one
Pretty good crop of 3yo horses in Tassie this year I think with Gedlee a dead set star, Udoit doing great things in Victoria, Saturday Nights looking awesome in both his runs and others like Lugovoi Leis and Thirsty Mach looking as if they will make very good horses as they get older
Race 6
#6 Sanreos $120 a WIN
Trifecta 4,6/4,6,7,8,9,11/1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 $70 gives 100%
Gotta love horses that don't even take part!!! I actually don't get too angry unlike a lot of punters when that happens. Had to laugh though as after the race walked the dog down to the shop and started belting down with rain halfway just to really rub it in.
Race 7
#1 Topup $40 a win
#4 Forty Two Grand $20 a win
#6 King Albert $20 a win
Gets back what I lost in race 6 anyway with Topup paying $7 - wish I did spit the dummy and unload on my top pick now lol. Simply can't have big bets on horses who have to be driven for luck though. Bit dirty that I didn't take the exotics though as I rated 1 to win from 7 and the quinella paid $20 and trifecta paid $600 and I had a small bet on the 3rd horse as well
Means I got 3 of the 4 quaddie legs with my top pick this week (and the other one didn't take part)
Race 8
Standout quinella 2/5,6 x $30 just to cover my all up a bit
Also $60 a win #5 Cosmic Under Fire
Quinella paid $10.30 and $2.20 the winner so picked up $300 on a race with minimal value. Also have roughly $108 going onto both 4,5 in race 9 from my parlay so will wait until seeing prices before deciding on bets as may even have a saver on #6 to cover the outlay
Been a pretty average night only winning $130 or so currently but with a bet to come so just going to let both 4,5 run with the parlay even though I am keen on the 4 to lead and win there is a slight doubt over the last 200m
Race 9
#6 Johnnyace $40 a win
#7 Drifting West $12 a win
#1 & 3 $6 a win
Last 200m did tell in the end with Safe Prospect but got something out of the damage with a measly $6 on the winner paying $21.70
Means a profit of around $200 for the night which is still a decent days pay I suppose despite being unhappy with my tipping, always look back though and should have made a killing in race 7 but can't complain. Won't be betting in the last but will be kicking the fav (Benediction) home for one of the owners who is an old footy team mate.
No meetings in Tassie midweek so might be quiet for a few days, last fav at Terang (Whata Body Line) is meant to be a moral but a bit short for me
Chariots Of Fire Barrier Draw
Simply cannot believe they are running this race over a mile but here is the field, haven't watched the replay as yet of each heat but have put up a quick market which I may adjust after looking at the replays
1 Deadsetlucky 13.0
2 Captain Joy (2nd Em)
3 Harley Earl 5.50
4 Make Mine Cullen 3.50
5 Jaccka Singh 26.0 '
6 Ima Rocket Star 3.50
7 The Band On Run (1st Em)
8 Internationalplayboy 34.0
9 Villagem 7.0
10 Buckeye Nation 11.0
11 Garnet River 41.0
12 Erics Legend 81.0
Barrier looks to have hurt a few hopes with 3,4,6,9 standing out in my mind as winning chances and 1 being a great place prospect courtesy of the draw. All comes down to value if having a bet but after only a cursory glance I reckon I will back Ima Rocket Star who is sure to have derived huge benefit for the first up run after travelling across the country and have a saver on Harley Earl. Thought that Villagem was a super run the other night but the draw has me worried in the final.
Can see betting agencies opening up the mare Make Mine Cullen as a short priced fav so hopefully I can get some value as pretty confident that Ima Rocket Star won't finish behind her this week.
1 Deadsetlucky 13.0
2 Captain Joy (2nd Em)
3 Harley Earl 5.50
4 Make Mine Cullen 3.50
5 Jaccka Singh 26.0 '
6 Ima Rocket Star 3.50
7 The Band On Run (1st Em)
8 Internationalplayboy 34.0
9 Villagem 7.0
10 Buckeye Nation 11.0
11 Garnet River 41.0
12 Erics Legend 81.0
Barrier looks to have hurt a few hopes with 3,4,6,9 standing out in my mind as winning chances and 1 being a great place prospect courtesy of the draw. All comes down to value if having a bet but after only a cursory glance I reckon I will back Ima Rocket Star who is sure to have derived huge benefit for the first up run after travelling across the country and have a saver on Harley Earl. Thought that Villagem was a super run the other night but the draw has me worried in the final.
Can see betting agencies opening up the mare Make Mine Cullen as a short priced fav so hopefully I can get some value as pretty confident that Ima Rocket Star won't finish behind her this week.
Sunday Tips
Sunday July 25
Launceston tips all races
R1#1 Quastor Centurion 1st $1.04
R2#5 Sing And Dance UNP
R3#7 Spot Nine 3rd
R4#1 Biggernbettermax 1st $1.60
R5#6 Lugovoi Leis 1st $3.30
R6#6 Sanreos UNP
R7#1 Topup 1st $6.90
R8#5 Cosmic Under Fire 1st $2.20
R9#4 Safe Prospect 2nd
R10#1 Benediction
Reckon I will only be betting in races 6,7,8,9 as the other races are a combination of no value and question marks
Best Bet that Leads
R9#4 Safe Prospect
Best Bet - non Leader
R8#5 Cosmic Under Fire
-------------------------------------
Best Value
R6#6 Sanreos
--------------------------------------
Best Roughie
R5#11 In Cruise Mode
--------------------------------------
My Quaddies
1
1,5,6,9,10,11,12
4,6,8
1,2,4,7
$42 gives 50%
1,5,7,9
5,6,12
4,6,8
1,2,4,7
$72 gives 50%
Launceston tips all races
R1#1 Quastor Centurion 1st $1.04
R2#5 Sing And Dance UNP
R3#7 Spot Nine 3rd
R4#1 Biggernbettermax 1st $1.60
R5#6 Lugovoi Leis 1st $3.30
R6#6 Sanreos UNP
R7#1 Topup 1st $6.90
R8#5 Cosmic Under Fire 1st $2.20
R9#4 Safe Prospect 2nd
R10#1 Benediction
Reckon I will only be betting in races 6,7,8,9 as the other races are a combination of no value and question marks
Best Bet that Leads
R9#4 Safe Prospect
Best Bet - non Leader
R8#5 Cosmic Under Fire
-------------------------------------
Best Value
R6#6 Sanreos
--------------------------------------
Best Roughie
R5#11 In Cruise Mode
--------------------------------------
My Quaddies
1
1,5,6,9,10,11,12
4,6,8
1,2,4,7
$42 gives 50%
1,5,7,9
5,6,12
4,6,8
1,2,4,7
$72 gives 50%
Launceston odds and ratings, Sunday July 25
Race 1
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but they are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax wasn't overly impressive first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple have been a shade disappointing. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 13
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 13
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO scr
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 9
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 11
12 PROVENANCE scr
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #7 Still Royal looking well placed on best form but need to improve on past few, #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times yet no mention at all in stewards report either time???) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but they are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax wasn't overly impressive first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple have been a shade disappointing. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 13
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 13
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO scr
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 9
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 11
12 PROVENANCE scr
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #7 Still Royal looking well placed on best form but need to improve on past few, #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times yet no mention at all in stewards report either time???) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Friday, July 23, 2010
Friday Tips
I am heading out tonight but thought I might post a few but only having something on the 2 Tassie horses at Melton
Melton
couple of Tassie horses
R4#2 Cullens Angel, not entirely sure if she leads but would win if she did so having something on as still a chance if she doesn't
R5#8 Babyitsyu, probably can't win but looks a good place chance so maybe a 1x3 bet
the other Tassie horse in race 3 (#7 Udoit) will be prohibitive odds and I don't think its the moral they are making it out to be so is a watch only
Menangle
R2#6 Ohoka Georgia, better run than it looked last time and think they have worked out that has to be driven cold
R3#7 Extreme Stature, watched the race last week and thought it was unlucky given the tempo
Melton
couple of Tassie horses
R4#2 Cullens Angel, not entirely sure if she leads but would win if she did so having something on as still a chance if she doesn't
R5#8 Babyitsyu, probably can't win but looks a good place chance so maybe a 1x3 bet
the other Tassie horse in race 3 (#7 Udoit) will be prohibitive odds and I don't think its the moral they are making it out to be so is a watch only
Menangle
R2#6 Ohoka Georgia, better run than it looked last time and think they have worked out that has to be driven cold
R3#7 Extreme Stature, watched the race last week and thought it was unlucky given the tempo
Thursday, July 22, 2010
What the stats show - quite interesting
Obviously I will wait until I have a true representative sample of at least 200 races before thinking I am onto something but these figures make for very interesting reading if correct. The link on the top right hand side will be updated after every meeting to give a running total
This is just since I started posting a tip for every Tassie race
Current as at July 22, 2010
Races 72
Winners 37
Return $117.54*
Strike Rate 51.3%
ROI 63.25%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices (keep in mind that by using other avenues such as Betfair or Corps that prices can generally be increased by a few percentage points but using SuperTab for verification purposes)
Further examining the data, this stat is amazing:
Leaders: 25
Winners: 22
Return: $62.44
Strike Rate 88%
ROI 149.76%
Non Leaders: 47
Winners: 15
Return: $55.10
Strike Rate 31.91%
ROI 17.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday July 21
R1#1 Prisonbreak UNP
R2#4 Hamish Sanz 2nd
R3#8 Auntyliz UNP
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper 1st $3.50
R5#5 Keen Operator 1st $5.70
R6#13 Harbhajan 1st $1.90
R7#10 Albert Jones EW 1st $8.0
R8#5 Blacktie Affair 1st $2.50
Invest $8 Return $21.60
Sunday July 18
R1#3 Cullens Count UNP
R2#4 Cullens Angel 2nd
R3#9 Royal Alchemist UNP
R4#9 Loaded To Run 2nd
R5#5 Benediction 1st $1.80
R6#10 Sing And Dance 2nd
R7#9 Quastor Centurion 1st $1.80
R8#6 The Bullionaire UNP
R9#1 Saturday Nights 1st $1.70
R10#1 Riverina Chelsea 1st $1.10
Invest $10 Return $6.40
Wednesday July 14
R1#4 Smokin Mustard 2nd
R2#10 Harbhajan 1st $2.20
R3#2 The Bullionaire UNP
R4#1 Broughton 1st $4.10
R5#8 Liskens Gift EW UNP
R6#5 Daytime Jerry 3rd
R7#6 Redside Shrek 2nd
R8#1 Pennys Dragon 1st $3.80
R9#2 Waterloo Bay 1st $1.60
Invest $9 Return $11.70
Sunday July 11
R1#5 Biggernbettermax 3rd
R2#8 Hangover Joe UNP
R3#7 Saab Quality UNP
R4#4 In Cruise Mode UNP
R5#6 King Of Bling UNP
R6#11 Lugovoi Leis 1st $1.70
R7#7 Cosmic Under Fire 3rd
R8#2 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.04
Invest $8 Return $2.74 (a shocker of a night)
Sunday June 27
R1#3 Codie Karalta 1st $4.60
R2#10 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.60
R3#5 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
R4#9 Loaded To Run 1st $3.30
R5#1 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.30
R6#8 Lugovoi Leis 1st $2.40
R7#6 Yuschenko Leis EW 1st $12.80
R8#2 Glenwood Jasper 3rd
R9#4 Balencia 2nd
Invest $9 Return $26.30
Monday June 21
R1#1 Inchbyinch 1st $3.90
R2#2 Bajardo River 1st $3.10
R3#9 Klebnikova Leis UNP
R4#4 Prettyboytoby 3rd
R5#7 Waterloo Bay 2nd
R6#9 Crash Cart UNP
R7#1 Topoftheclouds 1st $2.20
R8#1 Duart Castle 1st $3.0
Invest $8 Return $12.20
Sunday June 20
R1#5 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.60
R2#3 Ronnie Rat EW 1st $8.30
R3#6 Levina Leis 3rd
R4#3 Topup EW 2nd
R5#4 Flight To Mikinos 1st $7.40
R6#7 Sing And Dance 2nd
R7#4 Ombre Operateur UNP
R8#1 Bro Town 3rd
R9#6 Bettor Draw 1st $1.50
R10#2 Hugh Bromac 3rd
Invest $10 Return $18.80
Sunday June 13
Race 1 - #7 Riverina Chelsea 1st $5.0
Race 2 - #9 Modern Judge UNP
Race 3 - #7 Jonzaak EW UNP
Race 4 - #2 Maggie Kennedy 1st $1.20
Race 5 - #5 Gedlee 1st $1.30
Race 6 - #10 The Musics Over 1st $5.0
Race 7 - #9 Charleys Dream 1st $1.50
Race 8 - #1 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
Race 9 - #9 Pearls From Heaven 2nd
Race 10 - #2 Mick Armalive 1st $2.50
Invest $10 Return $17.80
This is just since I started posting a tip for every Tassie race
Current as at July 22, 2010
Races 72
Winners 37
Return $117.54*
Strike Rate 51.3%
ROI 63.25%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices (keep in mind that by using other avenues such as Betfair or Corps that prices can generally be increased by a few percentage points but using SuperTab for verification purposes)
Further examining the data, this stat is amazing:
Leaders: 25
Winners: 22
Return: $62.44
Strike Rate 88%
ROI 149.76%
Non Leaders: 47
Winners: 15
Return: $55.10
Strike Rate 31.91%
ROI 17.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday July 21
R1#1 Prisonbreak UNP
R2#4 Hamish Sanz 2nd
R3#8 Auntyliz UNP
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper 1st $3.50
R5#5 Keen Operator 1st $5.70
R6#13 Harbhajan 1st $1.90
R7#10 Albert Jones EW 1st $8.0
R8#5 Blacktie Affair 1st $2.50
Invest $8 Return $21.60
Sunday July 18
R1#3 Cullens Count UNP
R2#4 Cullens Angel 2nd
R3#9 Royal Alchemist UNP
R4#9 Loaded To Run 2nd
R5#5 Benediction 1st $1.80
R6#10 Sing And Dance 2nd
R7#9 Quastor Centurion 1st $1.80
R8#6 The Bullionaire UNP
R9#1 Saturday Nights 1st $1.70
R10#1 Riverina Chelsea 1st $1.10
Invest $10 Return $6.40
Wednesday July 14
R1#4 Smokin Mustard 2nd
R2#10 Harbhajan 1st $2.20
R3#2 The Bullionaire UNP
R4#1 Broughton 1st $4.10
R5#8 Liskens Gift EW UNP
R6#5 Daytime Jerry 3rd
R7#6 Redside Shrek 2nd
R8#1 Pennys Dragon 1st $3.80
R9#2 Waterloo Bay 1st $1.60
Invest $9 Return $11.70
Sunday July 11
R1#5 Biggernbettermax 3rd
R2#8 Hangover Joe UNP
R3#7 Saab Quality UNP
R4#4 In Cruise Mode UNP
R5#6 King Of Bling UNP
R6#11 Lugovoi Leis 1st $1.70
R7#7 Cosmic Under Fire 3rd
R8#2 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.04
Invest $8 Return $2.74 (a shocker of a night)
Sunday June 27
R1#3 Codie Karalta 1st $4.60
R2#10 Enchanted Heart 1st $1.60
R3#5 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
R4#9 Loaded To Run 1st $3.30
R5#1 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.30
R6#8 Lugovoi Leis 1st $2.40
R7#6 Yuschenko Leis EW 1st $12.80
R8#2 Glenwood Jasper 3rd
R9#4 Balencia 2nd
Invest $9 Return $26.30
Monday June 21
R1#1 Inchbyinch 1st $3.90
R2#2 Bajardo River 1st $3.10
R3#9 Klebnikova Leis UNP
R4#4 Prettyboytoby 3rd
R5#7 Waterloo Bay 2nd
R6#9 Crash Cart UNP
R7#1 Topoftheclouds 1st $2.20
R8#1 Duart Castle 1st $3.0
Invest $8 Return $12.20
Sunday June 20
R1#5 Thirsty Mach 1st $1.60
R2#3 Ronnie Rat EW 1st $8.30
R3#6 Levina Leis 3rd
R4#3 Topup EW 2nd
R5#4 Flight To Mikinos 1st $7.40
R6#7 Sing And Dance 2nd
R7#4 Ombre Operateur UNP
R8#1 Bro Town 3rd
R9#6 Bettor Draw 1st $1.50
R10#2 Hugh Bromac 3rd
Invest $10 Return $18.80
Sunday June 13
Race 1 - #7 Riverina Chelsea 1st $5.0
Race 2 - #9 Modern Judge UNP
Race 3 - #7 Jonzaak EW UNP
Race 4 - #2 Maggie Kennedy 1st $1.20
Race 5 - #5 Gedlee 1st $1.30
Race 6 - #10 The Musics Over 1st $5.0
Race 7 - #9 Charleys Dream 1st $1.50
Race 8 - #1 Nobeer Nocheer 1st $1.30
Race 9 - #9 Pearls From Heaven 2nd
Race 10 - #2 Mick Armalive 1st $2.50
Invest $10 Return $17.80
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Quaddie for $1 - AGAIN
No doubt there were plenty of sceptics when I started extolling the virtues of betting on Tasmanian Harness Racing but I will let the results speak for themselves. That is the 3rd quaddie I have selected straight out in less than a month and paid $532.20 today. There would also be a 63% ROI just by backing my top selection in every race which I wouldn't encourage as a betting system but it shows that its easy to pick winners.
As I keep saying, it may not be as sexy as betting at Melton or Menangle but its a licence to print it which is surely why we are having a bet.
Actually cost myself plenty sharing the quaddie tonight as there was only $6600 in the pool and I know 4 others who took the same quaddie so would have killed the divi (still paid very well when looking at SPs so not really complaining).
As I keep saying, it may not be as sexy as betting at Melton or Menangle but its a licence to print it which is surely why we are having a bet.
Actually cost myself plenty sharing the quaddie tonight as there was only $6600 in the pool and I know 4 others who took the same quaddie so would have killed the divi (still paid very well when looking at SPs so not really complaining).
Wednesday Tips
Launceston all races
R1#1 Prisonbreak UNP
R2#4 Hamish Sanz 2nd
R3#8 Auntyliz UNP
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper 1st $3.50
R5#5 Keen Operator 1st $5.70
R6#13 Harbhajan 1st $1.90
R7#10 Albert Jones EW 1st $8.0
R8#5 Blacktie Affair 1st $2.50
Quaddie
7,8/1,4,5,8,9/13/2,9,10,11,12 $50 gives 100%
No specials again with so many query runners but as a rough guide here are some suggested bets.
R1 - tri 1/3/2,4,5,6,7 and 1/2,4,5,6,7/3
R2#4 Hamish Sanz EW (place should be okay with 1,2 only)
R3#8 Auntyliz (very small bet)
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper and saver on #7 In Cruise Mode (eg; 80%#8, 20%#7)
R5#5 Keen Operator 1x2 (1 win and 19 placings suggests why)
R6#13 Harbhajan (save on quin with #9 if its < $4 as first up)
R7#10 Albert Jones EW
R8 - first four 5,6,8/5,6,8/5,6,8,9/field
R1#1 Prisonbreak UNP
R2#4 Hamish Sanz 2nd
R3#8 Auntyliz UNP
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper 1st $3.50
R5#5 Keen Operator 1st $5.70
R6#13 Harbhajan 1st $1.90
R7#10 Albert Jones EW 1st $8.0
R8#5 Blacktie Affair 1st $2.50
Quaddie
7,8/1,4,5,8,9/13/2,9,10,11,12 $50 gives 100%
No specials again with so many query runners but as a rough guide here are some suggested bets.
R1 - tri 1/3/2,4,5,6,7 and 1/2,4,5,6,7/3
R2#4 Hamish Sanz EW (place should be okay with 1,2 only)
R3#8 Auntyliz (very small bet)
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper and saver on #7 In Cruise Mode (eg; 80%#8, 20%#7)
R5#5 Keen Operator 1x2 (1 win and 19 placings suggests why)
R6#13 Harbhajan (save on quin with #9 if its < $4 as first up)
R7#10 Albert Jones EW
R8 - first four 5,6,8/5,6,8/5,6,8,9/field
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Launceston Sunday July 25
Race 1
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but th
ey are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax didn't set the world on fire first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple haven't been at that level. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 11
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 17
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO 17
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 15
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 15
12 PROVENANCE 21
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but th
ey are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax didn't set the world on fire first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple haven't been at that level. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 11
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 17
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO 17
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 15
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 15
12 PROVENANCE 21
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
Launceston odds and ratings, Wednesday July 21
Just bumping this back to the top
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race but this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS scr
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.5
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at the start in his last mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and the trio of #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1) scr
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading but is some hope if finds the pegs again, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift on recent efforts, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 5
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART scr
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 5
10 DEVIOUS JASPER scr
11 THE MUSICIAN 9
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) scr
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 15
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 9
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there so despite it being a very weak race she did run the time. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under her here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then but not at silly odds as there are question marks around the strength of the formline and a couple of query runners. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good as had a ton of gatespeed and was tough (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore at first Aussie start and won from memory which is unheard of, especially for a 3yo filly taking on older horses) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite not living up to the early promise so must respect at first Tassie start. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race but this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS scr
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.5
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at the start in his last mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and the trio of #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1) scr
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading but is some hope if finds the pegs again, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift on recent efforts, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 5
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART scr
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 5
10 DEVIOUS JASPER scr
11 THE MUSICIAN 9
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) scr
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 15
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 9
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there so despite it being a very weak race she did run the time. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under her here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then but not at silly odds as there are question marks around the strength of the formline and a couple of query runners. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good as had a ton of gatespeed and was tough (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore at first Aussie start and won from memory which is unheard of, especially for a 3yo filly taking on older horses) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite not living up to the early promise so must respect at first Tassie start. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Sunday Tips
All races Hobart
R1#3 Cullens Count
R2#4 Cullens Angel
R3#9 Royal Alchemist
R4#9 Loaded To Run
R5#5 Benediction
R6#10 Sing And Dance
R7#9 Quastor Centurion
R8#6 The Bullionaire
R9#1 Saturday Nights
R10#1 Riverina Chelsea
Have no standout bets and no point tipping one just for the sake of it, forced to pick one would suggest Sing And Dance in race 6 as reckon she will run 2nd at worst and save on quinellas into 4,12 and to a lesser extent 9. Actually the tips in races 1,4,6,8 should all be half decent value so something small on them may be the go
Quaddie (not a big wrap of taking quaddies either with a standout in the last leg as everybody does the same and any value is severely diluted). Going to take these though and if any value will throw a saver on 2,11 in last leg to cover costs. I am only spending $114 on the quaddie today taking these for 100%
1,2,8,9,10
2,3,5,8,9
4,10
9
1,2,8,9,10
3,5
4,9,10,12
9
2,9
3,5
4,10
2,9,11
R1#3 Cullens Count
R2#4 Cullens Angel
R3#9 Royal Alchemist
R4#9 Loaded To Run
R5#5 Benediction
R6#10 Sing And Dance
R7#9 Quastor Centurion
R8#6 The Bullionaire
R9#1 Saturday Nights
R10#1 Riverina Chelsea
Have no standout bets and no point tipping one just for the sake of it, forced to pick one would suggest Sing And Dance in race 6 as reckon she will run 2nd at worst and save on quinellas into 4,12 and to a lesser extent 9. Actually the tips in races 1,4,6,8 should all be half decent value so something small on them may be the go
Quaddie (not a big wrap of taking quaddies either with a standout in the last leg as everybody does the same and any value is severely diluted). Going to take these though and if any value will throw a saver on 2,11 in last leg to cover costs. I am only spending $114 on the quaddie today taking these for 100%
1,2,8,9,10
2,3,5,8,9
4,10
9
1,2,8,9,10
3,5
4,9,10,12
9
2,9
3,5
4,10
2,9,11
Hobart odds and ratings, Sunday July 18
Just bumping this back to the top
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) scr
2 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
3 MARACAS BAY 8
4 JAMES MACKENZIE scr
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 41
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 34
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 3
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 51
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $3 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA scr
Hard race to sort out courtesy of the ex kiwi #2 Spendit who won 3 of 5 starts in NZ and is having first Tassie start here. Can guage a rough formline as ran 3rd to another horse that came to Tassie in Domani Gem and have assessed its price based on what Domani Gem would be but betting moves are the best way to guage. #9 Loaded To Run has had no luck at all recently and looks a good EW bet here from the good trailing draw. #1 An Eye For An Eye has had 2 runs for the Gary Bailey stable now and was very good at first start and pretty average last time, from this draw however really gets his chance so is a must include. #8 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed at past couple when well in commission but will get a soft run here so wouldn't surprise. #4 Ontick looked pretty plain winning last time in my eyes after being gifted the front so prepared to risk and #10 Twograndahand was in that same race that Ontick won and was probably a better run despite not winning so may be the blowout
Ratings 2,9/1/8/4,10
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but doubt she will but she has a stack of ability. I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. That quartet looks clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
#9 Quastor Centurion has taken all before him this season winning all 6 starts. He is also very versatile in that he can win from in front or from behind and really deserves to win this feature race. The main dangers appear to be the Rattray stablemates in #2 Bettor Draw and #11 Beautide who are both pretty good in their own right. It is interesting to note that Gareth cannot drive either of them as he is a part owner of #4 Hangover Joe and is obligated to drive it under the rules of racing so don't read much into the respective choice of drivers. One of that trio should definitely win the race but if playing exotics then include #1 Iden Noshot, #4 Hangover Joe, #5 Apache River and #8 Semose Twenty
Ratings 9/2/11/1,8/4,5
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 6
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4.5
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Pretty open race which will probably be determined by the early speed battle which is actually the case in a lot of mile races. #5 Phantom Jasper has gatespeed but so do a few underneath him but provided he doesn't work too hard early would be the one to beat. I do have a healthy respect for #4 Chanceabet who has a formline of 9990x but does have ability when right and has trialled okay recently so don't dismiss. #6 The Bullionaire is probably the best horse in the race ability wise but has to be driven cold and never keen on those types in mile races, if they overdo it early though he might be the one. Outside of that trio the rest are quite even so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 5/4,6/1,2/8,9
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Ratings 1/3,5/2,6
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 5
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) scr
2 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
3 MARACAS BAY 8
4 JAMES MACKENZIE scr
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 41
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 34
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 3
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 51
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $3 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA scr
Hard race to sort out courtesy of the ex kiwi #2 Spendit who won 3 of 5 starts in NZ and is having first Tassie start here. Can guage a rough formline as ran 3rd to another horse that came to Tassie in Domani Gem and have assessed its price based on what Domani Gem would be but betting moves are the best way to guage. #9 Loaded To Run has had no luck at all recently and looks a good EW bet here from the good trailing draw. #1 An Eye For An Eye has had 2 runs for the Gary Bailey stable now and was very good at first start and pretty average last time, from this draw however really gets his chance so is a must include. #8 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed at past couple when well in commission but will get a soft run here so wouldn't surprise. #4 Ontick looked pretty plain winning last time in my eyes after being gifted the front so prepared to risk and #10 Twograndahand was in that same race that Ontick won and was probably a better run despite not winning so may be the blowout
Ratings 2,9/1/8/4,10
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but doubt she will but she has a stack of ability. I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. That quartet looks clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
#9 Quastor Centurion has taken all before him this season winning all 6 starts. He is also very versatile in that he can win from in front or from behind and really deserves to win this feature race. The main dangers appear to be the Rattray stablemates in #2 Bettor Draw and #11 Beautide who are both pretty good in their own right. It is interesting to note that Gareth cannot drive either of them as he is a part owner of #4 Hangover Joe and is obligated to drive it under the rules of racing so don't read much into the respective choice of drivers. One of that trio should definitely win the race but if playing exotics then include #1 Iden Noshot, #4 Hangover Joe, #5 Apache River and #8 Semose Twenty
Ratings 9/2/11/1,8/4,5
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 6
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4.5
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Pretty open race which will probably be determined by the early speed battle which is actually the case in a lot of mile races. #5 Phantom Jasper has gatespeed but so do a few underneath him but provided he doesn't work too hard early would be the one to beat. I do have a healthy respect for #4 Chanceabet who has a formline of 9990x but does have ability when right and has trialled okay recently so don't dismiss. #6 The Bullionaire is probably the best horse in the race ability wise but has to be driven cold and never keen on those types in mile races, if they overdo it early though he might be the one. Outside of that trio the rest are quite even so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 5/4,6/1,2/8,9
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Ratings 1/3,5/2,6
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 5
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Remember you are "Investing not Gambling"
Originally started this thread to show people its not hard to win gambling if you invest selectively instead of actually "gambling". I used to work as a stockbroker and it always amazes me the differing perceptions that people have of a professional punter as opposed to a stockbroker.
Having done both, I can assure everybody that a punter has immensely more factual information readily available to them than a stockbroker does, yet people will gladly give their stockbroker a fair whack of their life savings to invest.
These are just the results of everything I have individually posted for July based on being selective with what I post and most of the time I got a much better price than what is recorded below. Harbhajan for example was $2.20 SuperTab yet $3.50 was available on Betfair so any profits shown here can be magnified.
17/7
Forever After UNP
Unsinkable Boxer 1st $5.0
The Ravenite 1st $3.1
16/7
Ima Rocket Star 2nd
Our Chain Of Command 1st $2.1
Torque In Motion to place 1st $3.0*
14/7
Harbhajan 1st $2.20
11/7
King Of Bling UNP
10/7
Extreme Stature 1st $1.8
9/7
Ti Vogliobene 1st $3.10
7/7
Beautide 1st $2.30
* Please note that the suggested bet Torque In Motion was to place so have recorded it as 1st to designate it as a winner
Having done both, I can assure everybody that a punter has immensely more factual information readily available to them than a stockbroker does, yet people will gladly give their stockbroker a fair whack of their life savings to invest.
These are just the results of everything I have individually posted for July based on being selective with what I post and most of the time I got a much better price than what is recorded below. Harbhajan for example was $2.20 SuperTab yet $3.50 was available on Betfair so any profits shown here can be magnified.
17/7
Forever After UNP
Unsinkable Boxer 1st $5.0
The Ravenite 1st $3.1
16/7
Ima Rocket Star 2nd
Our Chain Of Command 1st $2.1
Torque In Motion to place 1st $3.0*
14/7
Harbhajan 1st $2.20
11/7
King Of Bling UNP
10/7
Extreme Stature 1st $1.8
9/7
Ti Vogliobene 1st $3.10
7/7
Beautide 1st $2.30
* Please note that the suggested bet Torque In Motion was to place so have recorded it as 1st to designate it as a winner
Launceston Wednesday
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race and this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS 13
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.8
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on replacing the trainer and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at previous mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1)
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 6
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4.5
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART 7
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 8
10 DEVIOUS JASPER 8
11 THE MUSICIAN 11
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) 15
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 21
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 11
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under him here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore and won from memory which is unheard of) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite n ot living up to the early promise so must respect. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race and this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS 13
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.8
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on replacing the trainer and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at previous mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1)
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 6
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4.5
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART 7
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 8
10 DEVIOUS JASPER 8
11 THE MUSICIAN 11
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) 15
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 21
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 11
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under him here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore and won from memory which is unheard of) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite n ot living up to the early promise so must respect. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
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