1 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $101, was ordinary when resuming from a spell. No
2 NOELSGIRL $3.2, been very good at past 3 starts and draws to break her maiden here
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD $6, been finishing close up at recent runs and won't be far away here
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $13, having first start and market the only guide
5 BENJI VEE $9, looked quite promising early on last campaign but form tapered away badly. Resumes here without a trial but a definite watch
6 MIGHTY MYF $101, No chance
7 RUBYS LIFE $8, interesting runner who has plenty of ability when right and the conditions of this race suit her as most of her rivals have just turned 3 years old so is obviously more seasoned. Recent form is average but must include
8 TIME TO PRAY $101, struggling for form and this draw virtually gives him no chance
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9 APACHE ALBA $21, first up for over a year and whilst has some ability when right prefer to watch
10 SMILEUPONUS $11, another one resuming but certainly has ability. Has broken at only 2 starts and run last but a forward showing wouldn't surprise
11 JUST DANCE BABY $5, been very good at only 2 starts and whilst the draw makes it tough will be hard to beat with any luck
12 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34, yet to run a place and unlikely to change that scenario here
Ratings 2/11/3/7/4,5,10
Race 2
1 JAGER BOMB NZ $5, resuming from a spell but certainly has the ability to win this at best. Hard to be confident when first up but should run well
2 EL JAYS MODEENA $11, pulled her head off last start and battled on okay, may be the blowout if settles better in the run
3 SCARLETT BLAZE $8, had every hope last time and finished close up. This is easier so if enjoys the same sort of trip in transit could win
4 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $5, been quite impressive at the trials from all accounts. Huge watch
5 TOP PREMIER $13, opportunist type who needs the right run but is a must for exotics
6 AAPENNON $6, very consistent animal who deserves a win but I am a touch worried about this draw
8 LOOK LOOK $34, going better than form suggests but the barrier makes it extremely tough
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MELMAN $8, should get a cheap run from here and will keep coming
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $17, fair run at debut when held ground with some handy horses, this no easier but should have derived some benefit
11 INTHENICKOFTIME $51, this is too tough
12 ANOPTOMIST $8, draw makes things tough but definitely going as well as anything in the race
13 WATTLE CREEK $26, has some ability but hard to have from the gate
Ratings 4/1/6/12/3/9/2,5,10
Race 3
1 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $1.4, super impressive last time when led, copped pressure and raced away. To add further merit to the win, the horse who had the cold sit on him all the way and couldn't get near him was Brian Buster Brown who has won his next 2 starts by more than 10 metres. Should win
2 SAAB QUALITY $8, has plenty of ability and will probably have a dip for the lead early but doubt he crosses. Still the main danger though
3 BARKERS RUN $101, no chance
4 THE JOUSTER $21, had his chance to win at first Tassie start when they staggered home but still went okay, good exotics chance
5 CRASH CART $21, going okay but a minor place chance only from this draw
6 AS YOU WISH $51,this looks too tough
7 MATAI NIGEL NZ $34, resumes from a spell and whilst he has some ability its hard to see him figuring from out here
8 LITTLE ELF $34, led and won a much weaker race last time and very difficult for him from out here. Minor place hope at the very best
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9 CHANCEABET $21, this bloke is either very good or very bad but has to be given a great place chance if he produces as draws to trail the fav and that will be position A for any runner in this
10 STEELINGTON NZ $34, went okay at first Tassie start and have to include in exotics
11 EARL HICKEY $101, outclassed
12 OUR KAIZAN NZ $51, hasn't done much in both Tasmanian runs so prepared to risk from this gate
Ratings 1/2/9/4,5/7,8,10
Race 4
1 BORNFIRST $34, has some speed but tends to race best at Devonport and not going well enough to feature here
2 SPECIAL GALLENTI $4.5, been very good lately leading and winning. Has had a slight let up but still be ultra competitive again
3 SANREOS $9, tough mare who grinds away, might lack the dash to win but never far away
4 HELVIK $13, hasn't had much luck since resuming so form is heaps better than it looks on paper. Has some chance
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY $21, sit/sprint horse who will need plenty of luck but wouldn't totally surprise
6 DENVERS BOY $4, been very good lately and also ultra consistent. Will be in the finish despite the draw
7 KEPT CALM $34, resuming and find it tough from out here
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9 THABELA BRIOSO $9, good win last time and should get a cheap run from here and definite chance if the breaks go her way
10 COMMANDER DATA $67, not going well enough
11 BALENCIA $6, tough mare who always puts herself into the race. Lacks a bit of speed but tries hard
12 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $21, past few have been below par, could win on best form but doubt he is at that level currently
13 MY CENTURION NZ $13, took the shortcut home when placed first up, draw makes it tougher but not the worst
Ratings 6/2/11/9/3,4/13
Race 5
1 REMEMBERPREECE $3.8, returns from Victoria where he raced against some good ones, bit of speed outside him and even if he gets crossed should get a soft run. Must include
2 MI MADEMOISELLE $11, going okay, will be driven for luck and if gets any could surprise
3 KING ALBERT $13, going okay, struggles to win but never far away
4 BONNY LENA $13, also returning from a Victorian stint where her form was average to say the least. Still keeping her safe as has ability when right
5 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $3.2, pulled himself into the ground at first Tasmanian start but looks suited here. Am worried with the junior driver though as seems a headstrong type
6 FORTY TWO GRAND $21, find it tough from out here
7 KING OF BLING $5, better suited back to the mile trip and has the gatespeed to lead if they wish. Needs it soft in front though
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21, pretty average last time, but should be driven quiter this time and might sneak a place
Ratings 5/1/7/2/field
Race 6
1 KOIZORA $26, led and won a farcical race last time, will find this a different kettle of fish so place best
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $4, won a similar race at $50 2 runs back and proved that was no fluke with a good performance making ground in a quick closing fraction last time. Definite chance
3 ALMA GRANT $3.8, looked to be travelling well when got knocked over at last start and from this draw will receive every hope so is the one they have to beat
4 BAJARDO RIVER $26, pretty average at past couple and can't have
5 CYCLONE DYNASTY $26, needs to lead to do its best and can't see that occurring here. No
6 NIGHT IN VEGAS $4, very good run when resuming and was also interfered with when there was a fall. Draw makes it tough but a legitimate chance
7 LOLA BROMAC NZ $9, been a shade disappointing but well up to this at her best. Hard to see her winning but won't be far away
8 MONICAS NOTCH $17, going a lot better than form suggests but still going to find it tough from here
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9 SOPHIES PLEASURE $13, resuming and goes best when drawn to race on the speed but well up to this class at best so wouldn't totally surprise
10 BREATHING FIRE $15, been very disappointing at all runs since resuming from a long spell, prefer to wait until she actually does something
Ratings 3/2/6/7/8,9,10
Race 7
1 TOPUP $15, needs a very soft run to feature at this level but from this draw will probably get that and might sneak a place
2 ALLA BREVE $11, resuming and generally goes okay whilst fresh but would need to be right at the top of his game to win this so prepared to risk
3 CASTASPELL $11, finished close up in a similar field last time and courtesy of the handicap conditions of the race over the shortish trip I give him some hope
4 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $13, thought he was quite average last time but you have to respect him any time he draws the front in a stand courtesy of his stand start manners
5 DANCE OF THE DEITY $6, won at big odds against the same calibre of field last time and enjoys a healthy handicap advantage over a few this time so obviously comes into play. Has also performed well in stand starts previously in races such as the Devonport Cup and Easter Cup so a definite chance
6 ULOS $15, never runs a bad race but find this much tougher than claiming grade
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $15, struggling for form currently and whilst he could definitely win at his best I want to see him do something first
8 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.8, has really stepped up to this class and despite the handicap should be in the finish. I am struggling to see how he got a 10m handicap though as the lowest assessed horse in the field but still the one to beat
9 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34, another struggling to find his best form and find it tough from this handicap
10 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.8, the obvious class horse but has to overcome a 40m handicap over 2200m so can't afford anything to go wrong. Will probably start unders but can still win due to his class
Ratings 8/10/5/3/field
Race 8
1 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $21, very one paced but if stepped to the front would be a rough hope but will find a couple of these too quick
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $4, just keeps stepping to the front and winning these races and this is no harder than the rest of his wins. Should lead and take plenty of running down again
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) $21, is going a shade better than form suggests but still hard to see him winning
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $7, has run some very good races at this level lately and a definite EW chance
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $21, has been pretty average of late and hard to see him figuring
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5, been placed at all 3 runs since being claimed by the Hillier stable and looks well suited here
7 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11, has the ability to feature but can't afford to do anything wrong as a couple in this have had the wood on him recently
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $4, another who can't afford any mistakes from the 20m handicap but is the class runner of the field and the one to beat if he steps away cleanly
Ratings 6/8/2/4/7
