Race 1
1 THE BULLIONAIRE $17 pretty good run last time when made some ground out wide in a quick closing quarter. Definite place claims from this draw
2 CANCELLARA $34 not racing at his best and will need plenty of luck to win but should get a good trip from here so an exotics chance
3 AAPENNON $2.0 simply flying since a short let up winning both times by a big space. The battle for the early lead between him and the 4 is vitally important but see him holding up and therefore a clear top pick
4 FLYING DUBAI $2.80 enormous in defeat last time and whilst he generally runs his best races in front and probably won't get there this time is still a good chance as his last run was top notch
5 THE INHIBITOR $67 not going well enough
6 THABELA BRIOSO $26 battled on well last time after being 3 wide the trip, probably can't win but a good exotics hope
7 SHIRNELL $101 not from this gate
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8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $51 another racing below its best and might sneak into 4th at the very best
9 HYDEHURST BOY $11 resuming from short let up and has plenty of ability but his best performances have been when he has led so prepared to risk as a winning hope but is a must for exotics as did trial okay behind the star pacer Gedlee on Monday (beaten 8 metres, 2.01.7, 56.8, 2090m)
10 DOMANI GEM NZ $15 resumes here and has plenty of speed, will obviously need a lot of things to go right to win but is too good to dismiss completely
Ratings 3/4/1,9,10/6
Race 2
1 THE DETONATOR $3.0 has improved at every run this time in and won clearly last time. The big query is gatespeed as whilst he has some there is a bit outside him which makes it a very tricky race. Still the one to beat though
2 JET BLACK FLYER $4.50 had about 6 weeks since last run and was competitive with good horses last time in. Provided she is still at the same level will go close
3 ARK WEST $7 showed a bit as a young horse but hasn't really delivered in recent starts. Is first up here though and won a recent trial (2.04.2, 59.0, 2090m) so keep an eye on the market
4 STEELINGTON NZ $11 had 4 Tasmanian starts and has been fair in all of them but hasn't done enough to suggest he can win but still a good place hope
5 WINDY WINGS $34 had a bit of support at first run in the state and didn't give much after leading. Prefer to wait until he shows something
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER $34 past 2 have been average at best after promising a bit at first couple of runs for new stable, also runs best races when drawn to lead and doubt he can get over here
7 EL JAYS MAVERICK $34 continues to be plagued by bad barriers, would be some hope from a decent draw but can't have from out here
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8 BRO TOWN NZ $6.0 past couple of runs have been excellent and should get a soft run from here. Going to need some luck but be right in the finish if gets any
9 ASHINAGA $26 resuming from a short let up and always tries hard but is limited ability wise. Rough chance for exotics
10 LITTLE ELF $11 pretty average as favourite last time but would be a chance on previous form. Lack of speed may play against him from this draw though so place only
Ratings 1/2/8/3/4/10/9
Race 3
1 ARTIFICE $4.5 definitely the pin up girl for bookmakers as been a short price at past 5 starts and been beaten every time ($3.10, $2.40, $2.60, $1.60, $1.40). Draws the pole in a mile race here so likely to be poisonous odds again but you would want $5 minimum to back her. She is still some hope purely based on the draw and distance as I reckon the mile trip suits her much better so don't discard completely
2 THIRTYSIXTOES $17 honest mare who had every hope last time and just battled but always an exotics hope when she draws well
3 TASPACEDOTCOM $101 still a maiden and be very surprised to see that status change here
4 EL JAYS MODEENA $4.5 well driven last time when chased home a smart one and whilst she was beaten clearly, it is worth noting that she beat the 3rd horse by 8 metres herself which is usually a good form reference. EW chance again
5 STRATEGIC MISS $101 led and got run over in a weaker race last time. No
6 KOIZORA $51 not the worst but would need a good draw to be any hope against these and draws badly so prepared to ignore
7 MOUNTAIN MOMMA $67 draw makes it tough as will settle last and simply doesn't have the ability to beat this field from there
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8 ALMA GRANT $4 tragedy beaten last time but gets a horror draw here. Would be a clear top pick from a better gate but simply must respect as will probably win with even luck
9 NIGHT IN VEGAS $6 thought she was a shade disappointing last time when perfectly driven to just miss in a similar field. Never runs a bad race though so is a must include
10 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $17 past couple just a shade below what is needed to win here, wouldn't totally surprise to see her run a place though if the breaks go her way
11 FLYIN INDI AIR $7 hard runner to assess as disgraced herself at first Tasmanian run when she simply refused to go. If you are prepared to put that down to a "female moment" then she is a definite chance. Its worth noting that she made the Group 1 Breeders Crown final 4 runs back and chased home Make Mine Cullen and Broadways Best, plus she also won a recent trial (2.06.4, 58.5, 2090m)
12 BAJARDO RIVER $101 bobs up on occasions but will need a ton of luck from here
Ratings 8/4/1/9/11/2/10
Race 4
1 DIEBERDON $1.80 super win when resuming when worked early and dug deep late in 2.00 rate. Showed enough speed early last time to suggest that will hold up early so a clear top pick. Am a tad concerned that Iden Justasmyrk may keep the heat on during the race but still must go on top
2 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $4 hasn't enjoyed a great deal of luck at recent starts but that can also be attributed somewhat to her racing style as is very one dimensional. However, from this draw should enjoy the type of run she loves and is the main danger to the pole if that occurs
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $34 form is actually a lot better than it looks (would want to be though) but this is a hard race. One to watch with an eye for an easier race down the track and throw in the shallow end of exotics
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $6 disappointed last time when seemingly had the race won and stopped as if shot. He is tough and right up with the top 2 ability wise but the way the draw has fallen makes him the 3rd pick as can't see him leading which means he will most likely be death seating and even if he grinds the pole into the ground, the 2 will be having a cold sit. Plus he was a late scratching recently so not sure if there was a problem
5 WEEMALANEWS $51 goes best when drawn to lead and there is a ton of speed under him here so wait until he draws better
6 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 very disappointing last week when just plugged home late, would need some suicidal tactics up front here in order to be any chance at all as will be settling down closer to last than first
7 EARL HICKEY $101 no hope from out here
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8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $17 draws to get a good trip and whilst he probably isn't going as well as he was a few runs back will be in the right spot to be in the exotics mix. Good place hope
9 MAROSSI $26 resuming and goes okay at his top but place only from this draw
10 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $26 was held up at first Tassie start but was beaten a fair way, wait until he gets back in the draw
Ratings 1/2/4/8/9/10/3/6
Race 5
1 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $7 has the emergency services formline of 000 but was actually travelling okay when broke in the straight last week so from this draw is a chance
2 CULLENS COUNT NZ $4.5 was beaten by a couple of good horses last time so run was a shade better than it looks on paper so whilst he doesn't win out of turn, he has good gatespeed, looks the leader and the one to run down
3 LOCKDOWN $15 disappointed last time in but has ability when right so could surprise if returns at the top of his game. Watch betting
4 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling
5 ULTIMATE HEIR $51 can't see him figuring
6 LISKENS GIFT $5 very good run last time when led from barrier one and whilst he always runs his best races in front and doubt he can lead here he is tough and this isn't a strong race so right in the mix
7 KING FOR A DAY $17 resumes here and has the ability to feature at his best but hard to back from this gate
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8 BERTILS ROCKET $11 opportunist type who draws to get the cheap run he loves, if the breaks come at the right time could be the blowout
9 SAAB QUALITY $8 had his chance last week and disappointed in the run home, this is easier but has always run his best races in front so whilst he is right up there ability wise compared to the rest he needs to lift
10 BIDE YOUR TIME $4 probably the best horse in the race but draws awkwardly, with any luck in running is clearly the one to beat so goes on top
Ratings 10/2/6/1/9/8/3/7
Race 6
1 WINJAMMER $4 resumes and has trialled okay and has a ton of ability at his best. Also enjoys a healthy advantage over most of his rivals at the handicaps so with a clean getaway will take a ton of beating
2 DODGERMEMATE $13 just a fair run when resuming, also well handicapped so has some hope if he does everything right
3 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $6 much better run last time when copped pressure midrace, always a chance in these races courtesy of his manners
4 ALLA BREVE $17 very average last time in similar garde, has ability at his top but been a while since he has showed it. Prefer others
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $13 had support at first Tassie run and faded after having every hope, obviously was showing something to justify the support so keeping relatively safe but still can't see him winning
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $13 finding it hard from the handicaps these days but past couple have been better than previous runs so is some hope
7 SKY TOWER $3 clearly better than them but has a 30m handicap to overcome so can't afford to do anything wrong. Still clearly the one to beat though
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $6 stablemate of Sky Tower and there isn't a great deal between them ability wise and if this bloke got the perfect drag into the race could surprise
Ratings 7/1/3/8/field
Race 7
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $9 been going okay in similar fields, has gatespeed but best runs have definitely been when driven with cover so if sat leaders back here would be a major place chance
2 MISTER GALLENTI $9 honest horse who had every hope to beat Biggernbettermax last time and just missed and should get a similar trip from here so won't be too far away
3 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $2.5 has a great record being placed at all 12 career starts and winning 8 of them. He is a hard horse to assess though as never looks impressive as a rule but gets the job done. I have priced him at $2.5 as unsure if he will lead here but still clearly the horse to beat though as he never lies down
4 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 been superbly driven to place behind the 2 favs at past couple but will need another R Duggan special to feature here. Find it hard to see him winning but a first four hope
5 TEEJAY FELLA $3.0 not sure whether I am overrating its last win which I thought was enormous when he ran the quickest lead time of the night yet still raced away late in a 58.1 closing half. I give him a huge chance with a repeat of that and would have him fav if he drew inside the 3 horse
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $34 going okay but this draw and this trip make it ultra difficult to see him featuring
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 this is too hard from this gate
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8 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 disgraceful run at first start for new stable when he couldn't keep up, whilst he has ability at best its impossible to back him on that run
9 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $13 ran an honest race in a Claimer last week but this is obviously harder, has the ability to bob up on occasions though so don't ignore completely
Ratings 3/5/1/2/9/4/6
Race 8
1 TIME TO PRAY $51 unplaced in all 15 career starts so despite the good draw its hard to make any case
2 ANOPTOMIST $3.0 honest type who lacks a bit of zip but might just find the pegs here and be hard to run down if he does
3 DREAMON DONNY $51 this looks too hard
4 HONEST ART $7 resuming and was competitive against some good horses last time in and has been okay at the trials, a must for exotics
5 KARALTA LADY $5 very hard horse to assess as has the 000 formline but at her best has beaten better than these. Is resuming and just fair at the trials but is a definite market watch
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $21 good run when resuming when ran home well then didn't do much last time, hard to see him winning but with the lack of depth in the race might sneak into the exotics
7 ITS A HOOT $3.0 been very good at all 3 runs since resuming, no doubt should have won 2 starts back when held up then boxed on bravely after death seating from this same gate last time. The one to beat
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8 GUNBOWER JACK $101 been getting beaten a long way in easier races, no
9 HERNANDES $67 another horse who is yet to be placed and whilst resuming here its still hard to make a case despite not beig hopeless at the trials
10 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $67 sat leaders back and was gone a long way from home last time, has run a couple of decent races in the past but can't have on last performance
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 last run actually wasn't too bad after working hard early from barrier 7, probably the best of the roughies in the race but the draw probably means he will struggle
Ratings 7/2/5/4/6/11
Race 9
1 RIKKISU $26 is a filly taking on the boys and whilst she does go better than her form suggests she still looks outclassed
2 SMOKIN MUSTARD $2.5 past few have been okay and looks the leader here and there doesn't look to be much pressure. If gets a soft lead will probably win
3 DUSTY KALENA $6 has plenty of ability but still does a heap wrong, could surprise if puts it all together though
4 KARALTA WIZARD $2.5 resuming and went okay at the trials. Was definitely a better 2yo than his rivals here so its a bit of a guessing game as to where he is at fitness wise but must respect as the stable usually only produce them when ready
5 JUST DANCE BABY $5 looks like he will develop into a decent horse in time but still quite green, can certainly win with the right run but the draw concerns me a tad
