Only mucked around as didn't really like the meeting or would have got plenty. Included below my post in the speed maps thread with SuperTab divs. $9k quaddie bites
Race 1
Winning hopes - 3,4
Place hopes - 9,1,10,6,2
Win ( 4 ) $3.80
1st Place ( 4 ) $1.30
2nd Place ( 9 ) $2.90
3rd Place ( 3 ) $1.10
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 4 / 9 ) $14.80
Exacta ( 4 / 9 ) $28.40
First 4 ( 4 / 9 / 3 / 6 ) $307.80
Trifecta ( 4 / 9 / 3 ) $58.00
Race 2
Winning hopes - 1,2,8,3
Place hopes - 4,10
Win ( 3 ) $12.90
1st Place ( 3 ) $3.10
2nd Place ( 2 ) $1.30
3rd Place ( 7 ) $10.30
4th Place ( 1 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 3 ) $22.30
Exacta ( 3 / 2 ) $93.00
First 4 ( 3 / 2 / 7 / 1 ) $3214.70
Trifecta ( 3 / 2 / 7 ) $1215.10
Running Double ( 1 - 2 ) ( 4 / 3 ) $13.60
Race 3
Winning hopes - 1,4,8
Place hopes - 2,9,11
Win ( 4 ) $23.30
1st Place ( 4 ) $3.80
2nd Place ( 8 ) $1.40
3rd Place ( 11 ) $2.20
4th Place ( 9 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 4 / 8 ) $31.50
Exacta ( 4 / 8 ) $83.20
First 4 ( 4 / 8 / 11 / 9 ) $1426.50
Trifecta ( 4 / 8 / 11 ) $577.70
Running Double ( 2 - 3 ) ( 3 / 4 ) $54.20
Race 4
Winning hopes - 1,2
Place hopes - 3,4,8,9
Win ( 9 ) $12.80
1st Place ( 9 ) $2.90
2nd Place ( 10 ) $2.70
3rd Place ( 1 ) $1.04
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 9 / 10 ) $61.20
Exacta ( 9 / 10 ) $81.20
First 4 ( 9 / 10 / 1 / 6 ) $1953.00
Trifecta ( 9 / 10 / 1 ) $370.40
Running Double ( 3 - 4 ) ( 4 / 9 ) $68.40
Race 5
Winning hopes - 2,6,10
Place hopes - 1,8,9
Win ( 10 ) $5.00
1st Place ( 10 ) $2.20
2nd Place ( 1 ) $1.60
3rd Place ( 2 ) $1.70
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 10 ) $15.30
Exacta ( 10 / 1 ) $32.80
First 4 ( 10 / 1 / 2 / 6 ) $435.10
Trifecta ( 10 / 1 / 2 ) $111.20
Running Double ( 4 - 5 ) ( 9 / 10 ) $45.10
Race 6
Winning hopes - 1,7
Place hopes - 3,8
Win ( 8 ) $5.20
1st Place ( 8 ) $1.50
2nd Place ( 1 ) $2.20
3rd Place ( 7 ) $1.40
4th Place ( 5 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 8 ) $20.50
Exacta ( 8 / 1 ) $34.10
First 4 ( 8 / 1 / 7 / 5 ) $312.90
Trifecta ( 8 / 1 / 7 ) $53.20
Consolation Double ( 4 - 6 ) ( 9 / 1 ) $53.20
Consolation Double ( 4 - 6 ) ( 9 / 8 ) $33.10
Running Double ( 5 - 6 ) ( 10 / 8 ) $27.60
Race 7
Winning hopes - 3,5
Place hopes - 1,2,9
Win ( 9 ) $14.90
1st Place ( 9 ) $3.80
2nd Place ( 1 ) $2.30
3rd Place ( 3 ) $1.10
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 9 ) $60.80
Exacta ( 9 / 1 ) $788.20
First 4 ( 9 / 1 / 3 / 6 ) $1271.70
Trifecta ( 9 / 1 / 3 ) $378.10
Daily Double ( 5 - 7 ) ( 10 / 9 ) $167.00
Quadrella ( 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 ) ( 9 / 10 / 8 / 9 ) $9036.70
Running Double ( 6 - 7 ) ( 8 / 9 ) $51.20
Race 8
Winning hopes - 2,7
Place hopes - 4,5
Win ( 2 ) $2.60
1st Place ( 2 ) $1.20
2nd Place ( 7 ) $2.00
3rd Place ( 4 ) $1.40
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 7 ) $5.10
Exacta ( 2 / 7 ) $9.50
First 4 ( 2 / 7 / 4 / 6 ) $209.30
Trifecta ( 2 / 7 / 4 ) $31.60
Running Double ( 7 - 8 ) ( 9 / 2 ) $44.30
Race 9
Winning hopes - 2,4
Place hopes - 3,5
Win ( 2 ) $2.60
1st Place ( 2 ) $1.70
2nd Place ( 4 ) $1.50
3rd Place ( 5 ) No dividend
4th Place ( 1 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 4 ) $3.00
Exacta ( 2 / 4 ) $6.40
First 4 ( 2 / 4 / 5 / 1 ) $52.40
Trifecta ( 2 / 4 / 5 ) $7.60
Running Double ( 8 - 9 ) ( 2 / 2 ) $9.40
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Sunday Live Bets
Just for something different, will post a few bets. Won't be betting much tonight so might pass a bit of time
Race 1
Trifecta 3,4/3,4/1,2,6,9,10 x $5 cost $50
Box Tri 3,4,9 x $5 cost $30
All up
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 1
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $10 cost $120
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 2
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $2.5 cost $30
$40 Flying Dubai @ $4.50 Betfair
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 (don't like race much)
Box quin 1,2,8 x $20 cost $60
Bro Town $20 a win
Never ever going to get a result there, garbage race form wise too as I half expected. Probably shouldn't have had a bet
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3
Trifecta 1,4,8/1,4,8,9,11/1,2,4,8,9,10,11 x $1 cost $60 collect $577.70
$20 a win El Jays Modeena 1st $23.30 collect $466
$60 a win Alma Grant
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4
$96 on quaddie (same as below)
Dieberdon $120 a win - min $1.80 (already got enough on with all up and quaddie)
How to stuff a race up exhibit A, no idea what they were thinking on Blacktie Affair deciding to lead as never finishes off when used early and was half a distance doubt too even if driven cold, drew perfectly to get the type of run it loves too as any leader was always going to cop it from Justasmyrk down the back and she should have been the one on its back (where the winner was). Dieberdon did a ton of work last time and beat Flying Dubai and goes like a cripple tonight and FD wins by panels. Anyway, onto the next race
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5
Daily Double 1,2,6,10/3,5 x $10 cost $80
Trifecta 1,2,6,10/1,2,6,8,9,10/1,2,6,8,9,10 x $0.50 cost $40 collect $55.60
River In Bluejeans $20 a win
3 favs fight it out but a little bit of something is better than a whole lot of nothing. Should have had something on the winner given the price it got out to. Doubles be small also as was fav in media and early tote fav
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Race 6
Dutch bet
Sky Tower $90 (have to back him, have his photo on blog :))
Winjammer $50
Thought I couldn't miss all race there but did!! Can never catch that horse Gettysburgh Address, bloody stiff Sky Tower when the muppet on Angus Macregor pulled out in front of him. Got $9.2 Winjammer also :(
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Race 7
Teejay Fella $60 a win - disgraceful
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 box quin 2,5,7 x $25 cost $75 collect $127.5
Tri 2,5,7/2,4,5,7/2,4,5,7 x $3 cost $54 collect $94.8
Its A Hoot $60 a win
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Race 9
Don't like this race at all with #4 being impossible to assess so silly little bet
Smokin Mustard 25x50 confident that runs 2nd at worst as should get soft lead and place sometimes holds up when 1,2 only but wouldn't recommend the bet
Collect $150 but never again it
---------------------------------------------------------------
Invest $1310
Collect:
Trifecta race 1 $290
Win race 1 $180
Trifecta race 3 $577.70
Win race 3 $466
Trifecta race 5 $55.60
Quinella race 8 $127.50
Trifecta race 8 $94.60
Win race 9 $150
Total collects $1941.40
Profir $631.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1
Trifecta 3,4/3,4/1,2,6,9,10 x $5 cost $50
Box Tri 3,4,9 x $5 cost $30
All up
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 1
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $10 cost $120
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 2
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $2.5 cost $30
$40 Flying Dubai @ $4.50 Betfair
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 (don't like race much)
Box quin 1,2,8 x $20 cost $60
Bro Town $20 a win
Never ever going to get a result there, garbage race form wise too as I half expected. Probably shouldn't have had a bet
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3
Trifecta 1,4,8/1,4,8,9,11/1,2,4,8,9,10,11 x $1 cost $60 collect $577.70
$20 a win El Jays Modeena 1st $23.30 collect $466
$60 a win Alma Grant
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4
$96 on quaddie (same as below)
Dieberdon $120 a win - min $1.80 (already got enough on with all up and quaddie)
How to stuff a race up exhibit A, no idea what they were thinking on Blacktie Affair deciding to lead as never finishes off when used early and was half a distance doubt too even if driven cold, drew perfectly to get the type of run it loves too as any leader was always going to cop it from Justasmyrk down the back and she should have been the one on its back (where the winner was). Dieberdon did a ton of work last time and beat Flying Dubai and goes like a cripple tonight and FD wins by panels. Anyway, onto the next race
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5
Daily Double 1,2,6,10/3,5 x $10 cost $80
Trifecta 1,2,6,10/1,2,6,8,9,10/1,2,6,8,9,10 x $0.50 cost $40 collect $55.60
River In Bluejeans $20 a win
3 favs fight it out but a little bit of something is better than a whole lot of nothing. Should have had something on the winner given the price it got out to. Doubles be small also as was fav in media and early tote fav
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6
Dutch bet
Sky Tower $90 (have to back him, have his photo on blog :))
Winjammer $50
Thought I couldn't miss all race there but did!! Can never catch that horse Gettysburgh Address, bloody stiff Sky Tower when the muppet on Angus Macregor pulled out in front of him. Got $9.2 Winjammer also :(
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7
Teejay Fella $60 a win - disgraceful
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 box quin 2,5,7 x $25 cost $75 collect $127.5
Tri 2,5,7/2,4,5,7/2,4,5,7 x $3 cost $54 collect $94.8
Its A Hoot $60 a win
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 9
Don't like this race at all with #4 being impossible to assess so silly little bet
Smokin Mustard 25x50 confident that runs 2nd at worst as should get soft lead and place sometimes holds up when 1,2 only but wouldn't recommend the bet
Collect $150 but never again it
---------------------------------------------------------------
Invest $1310
Collect:
Trifecta race 1 $290
Win race 1 $180
Trifecta race 3 $577.70
Win race 3 $466
Trifecta race 5 $55.60
Quinella race 8 $127.50
Trifecta race 8 $94.60
Win race 9 $150
Total collects $1941.40
Profir $631.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
Hobart Tips and Speed Maps
All Races
R1#3 Aapennon
R2#1 The Detonator
R3#8 Alma Grant
R4#1 Dieberdon
R5#10 Bide Your Time
R6#7 Sky Tower
R7#5 Teejay Fella
R8#7 Its A Hoot
R9#2 Smokin Mustard
Best Bet
R4#1 Dieberdon
also keen on the last 3 races as reckon all will run cheeky races and will all be 2nd fav I reckon so be a touch of value
Quaddie - total $96
1
1,2,6,8,9,10
1,3,7,8
3,5
$48 for 100%
1,2
1,2,6,8,9,10
1,7
3,5
$48 for 100%
Speed Maps
Race 1
Winning hopes - 3,4
Place hopes - 9,1,10,6,2
Leader - #3 Aapennon, both 1,2 race with a sit and neither of 5,6,7 have blistering gatespeed which means either 3 or 4 will lead and whichever one does becomes the horse to beat. Whilst I do give 4 a rough hope of crossing the 3 I will still stick with #3 as the leader
Race 2
Winning hopes - 1,2,8,3
Place hopes - 4,10
Leader - #1 The Detonator, 1,2,5,6 all have gatespeed but confident that one of the inside 2 have sufficient speed so will opt for #1 as the leader
Race 3
Winning hopes - 1,4,8
Place hopes - 2,9,11
Leader - #1 Artifice, 1 has been driven with a sit recently but back to the mile I expect to see a change of tactics tonight and has the speed to keep front, if she hands up then 4 will probably get there. 6 has led at past couple but its a lot harder from this gate
Race 4
Winning hopes - 1,2
Place hopes - 3,4,8,9
Leader - #1 Dieberdon, 1 showed good speed last time and confident that will hold up, 2 has speed but they rarely use it as doesn't finish her races off when they do. 4 also has speed and will go forward but doubt he will cross the pole
Race 5
Winning hopes - 2,6,10
Place hopes - 1,8,9
Leader - #2 Cullens Count, 1 is a query with its gatespeed as the driver nearly always wants to lead on anything he drives but outside of him 2 has speed and led last time and from the draw looks likely to do so again. 6 also led last time and with Gareth on its amazing sometimes how much he can improve a horses gatespeed so wouldn't totally surprise to see him get over
Race 6
Winning hopes - 1,7
Place hopes - 3,8
Leader - #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper, confident that 1 or 3 will lead based on previous stand start form, 3 especially has excellent stand start manners so is likely to be first to the pegs and then may hand up but should be first to the pegs
Race 7
Winning hopes - 3,5
Place hopes - 1,2,9
Leader - #3 Biggernbettermax, 1 probably has the speed to lead but has run best races when driven with a sit and with a couple of smart ones outside will hand up you would imagine. Both 3,5 led to win last time and would probably rate 3 an 80% hope of keeping 5 out early
Race 8
Winning hopes - 2,7
Place hopes - 4,5
Leader - #2 Anoptimist, 2 is the only one with proven gatespeed and he hasn't got a ton either but looks likely to lead given the strength of the ones drawn near him
Race 9
Winning hopes - 2,4
Place hopes - 3,5
Leader - #2 Smokin Mustard looks a certain leader
***** FULL PREVIEW BELOW *****
R1#3 Aapennon
R2#1 The Detonator
R3#8 Alma Grant
R4#1 Dieberdon
R5#10 Bide Your Time
R6#7 Sky Tower
R7#5 Teejay Fella
R8#7 Its A Hoot
R9#2 Smokin Mustard
Best Bet
R4#1 Dieberdon
also keen on the last 3 races as reckon all will run cheeky races and will all be 2nd fav I reckon so be a touch of value
Quaddie - total $96
1
1,2,6,8,9,10
1,3,7,8
3,5
$48 for 100%
1,2
1,2,6,8,9,10
1,7
3,5
$48 for 100%
Speed Maps
Race 1
Winning hopes - 3,4
Place hopes - 9,1,10,6,2
Leader - #3 Aapennon, both 1,2 race with a sit and neither of 5,6,7 have blistering gatespeed which means either 3 or 4 will lead and whichever one does becomes the horse to beat. Whilst I do give 4 a rough hope of crossing the 3 I will still stick with #3 as the leader
Race 2
Winning hopes - 1,2,8,3
Place hopes - 4,10
Leader - #1 The Detonator, 1,2,5,6 all have gatespeed but confident that one of the inside 2 have sufficient speed so will opt for #1 as the leader
Race 3
Winning hopes - 1,4,8
Place hopes - 2,9,11
Leader - #1 Artifice, 1 has been driven with a sit recently but back to the mile I expect to see a change of tactics tonight and has the speed to keep front, if she hands up then 4 will probably get there. 6 has led at past couple but its a lot harder from this gate
Race 4
Winning hopes - 1,2
Place hopes - 3,4,8,9
Leader - #1 Dieberdon, 1 showed good speed last time and confident that will hold up, 2 has speed but they rarely use it as doesn't finish her races off when they do. 4 also has speed and will go forward but doubt he will cross the pole
Race 5
Winning hopes - 2,6,10
Place hopes - 1,8,9
Leader - #2 Cullens Count, 1 is a query with its gatespeed as the driver nearly always wants to lead on anything he drives but outside of him 2 has speed and led last time and from the draw looks likely to do so again. 6 also led last time and with Gareth on its amazing sometimes how much he can improve a horses gatespeed so wouldn't totally surprise to see him get over
Race 6
Winning hopes - 1,7
Place hopes - 3,8
Leader - #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper, confident that 1 or 3 will lead based on previous stand start form, 3 especially has excellent stand start manners so is likely to be first to the pegs and then may hand up but should be first to the pegs
Race 7
Winning hopes - 3,5
Place hopes - 1,2,9
Leader - #3 Biggernbettermax, 1 probably has the speed to lead but has run best races when driven with a sit and with a couple of smart ones outside will hand up you would imagine. Both 3,5 led to win last time and would probably rate 3 an 80% hope of keeping 5 out early
Race 8
Winning hopes - 2,7
Place hopes - 4,5
Leader - #2 Anoptimist, 2 is the only one with proven gatespeed and he hasn't got a ton either but looks likely to lead given the strength of the ones drawn near him
Race 9
Winning hopes - 2,4
Place hopes - 3,5
Leader - #2 Smokin Mustard looks a certain leader
***** FULL PREVIEW BELOW *****
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Hobart Preview - Sunday October 31
Race 1
1 THE BULLIONAIRE $17 pretty good run last time when made some ground out wide in a quick closing quarter. Definite place claims from this draw
2 CANCELLARA $34 not racing at his best and will need plenty of luck to win but should get a good trip from here so an exotics chance
3 AAPENNON $2.0 simply flying since a short let up winning both times by a big space. The battle for the early lead between him and the 4 is vitally important but see him holding up and therefore a clear top pick
4 FLYING DUBAI $2.80 enormous in defeat last time and whilst he generally runs his best races in front and probably won't get there this time is still a good chance as his last run was top notch
5 THE INHIBITOR $67 not going well enough
6 THABELA BRIOSO $26 battled on well last time after being 3 wide the trip, probably can't win but a good exotics hope
7 SHIRNELL $101 not from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $51 another racing below its best and might sneak into 4th at the very best
9 HYDEHURST BOY $11 resuming from short let up and has plenty of ability but his best performances have been when he has led so prepared to risk as a winning hope but is a must for exotics as did trial okay behind the star pacer Gedlee on Monday (beaten 8 metres, 2.01.7, 56.8, 2090m)
10 DOMANI GEM NZ $15 resumes here and has plenty of speed, will obviously need a lot of things to go right to win but is too good to dismiss completely
Ratings 3/4/1,9,10/6
Race 2
1 THE DETONATOR $3.0 has improved at every run this time in and won clearly last time. The big query is gatespeed as whilst he has some there is a bit outside him which makes it a very tricky race. Still the one to beat though
2 JET BLACK FLYER $4.50 had about 6 weeks since last run and was competitive with good horses last time in. Provided she is still at the same level will go close
3 ARK WEST $7 showed a bit as a young horse but hasn't really delivered in recent starts. Is first up here though and won a recent trial (2.04.2, 59.0, 2090m) so keep an eye on the market
4 STEELINGTON NZ $11 had 4 Tasmanian starts and has been fair in all of them but hasn't done enough to suggest he can win but still a good place hope
5 WINDY WINGS $34 had a bit of support at first run in the state and didn't give much after leading. Prefer to wait until he shows something
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER $34 past 2 have been average at best after promising a bit at first couple of runs for new stable, also runs best races when drawn to lead and doubt he can get over here
7 EL JAYS MAVERICK $34 continues to be plagued by bad barriers, would be some hope from a decent draw but can't have from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BRO TOWN NZ $6.0 past couple of runs have been excellent and should get a soft run from here. Going to need some luck but be right in the finish if gets any
9 ASHINAGA $26 resuming from a short let up and always tries hard but is limited ability wise. Rough chance for exotics
10 LITTLE ELF $11 pretty average as favourite last time but would be a chance on previous form. Lack of speed may play against him from this draw though so place only
Ratings 1/2/8/3/4/10/9
Race 3
1 ARTIFICE $4.5 definitely the pin up girl for bookmakers as been a short price at past 5 starts and been beaten every time ($3.10, $2.40, $2.60, $1.60, $1.40). Draws the pole in a mile race here so likely to be poisonous odds again but you would want $5 minimum to back her. She is still some hope purely based on the draw and distance as I reckon the mile trip suits her much better so don't discard completely
2 THIRTYSIXTOES $17 honest mare who had every hope last time and just battled but always an exotics hope when she draws well
3 TASPACEDOTCOM $101 still a maiden and be very surprised to see that status change here
4 EL JAYS MODEENA $4.5 well driven last time when chased home a smart one and whilst she was beaten clearly, it is worth noting that she beat the 3rd horse by 8 metres herself which is usually a good form reference. EW chance again
5 STRATEGIC MISS $101 led and got run over in a weaker race last time. No
6 KOIZORA $51 not the worst but would need a good draw to be any hope against these and draws badly so prepared to ignore
7 MOUNTAIN MOMMA $67 draw makes it tough as will settle last and simply doesn't have the ability to beat this field from there
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ALMA GRANT $4 tragedy beaten last time but gets a horror draw here. Would be a clear top pick from a better gate but simply must respect as will probably win with even luck
9 NIGHT IN VEGAS $6 thought she was a shade disappointing last time when perfectly driven to just miss in a similar field. Never runs a bad race though so is a must include
10 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $17 past couple just a shade below what is needed to win here, wouldn't totally surprise to see her run a place though if the breaks go her way
11 FLYIN INDI AIR $7 hard runner to assess as disgraced herself at first Tasmanian run when she simply refused to go. If you are prepared to put that down to a "female moment" then she is a definite chance. Its worth noting that she made the Group 1 Breeders Crown final 4 runs back and chased home Make Mine Cullen and Broadways Best, plus she also won a recent trial (2.06.4, 58.5, 2090m)
12 BAJARDO RIVER $101 bobs up on occasions but will need a ton of luck from here
Ratings 8/4/1/9/11/2/10
Race 4
1 DIEBERDON $1.80 super win when resuming when worked early and dug deep late in 2.00 rate. Showed enough speed early last time to suggest that will hold up early so a clear top pick. Am a tad concerned that Iden Justasmyrk may keep the heat on during the race but still must go on top
2 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $4 hasn't enjoyed a great deal of luck at recent starts but that can also be attributed somewhat to her racing style as is very one dimensional. However, from this draw should enjoy the type of run she loves and is the main danger to the pole if that occurs
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $34 form is actually a lot better than it looks (would want to be though) but this is a hard race. One to watch with an eye for an easier race down the track and throw in the shallow end of exotics
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $6 disappointed last time when seemingly had the race won and stopped as if shot. He is tough and right up with the top 2 ability wise but the way the draw has fallen makes him the 3rd pick as can't see him leading which means he will most likely be death seating and even if he grinds the pole into the ground, the 2 will be having a cold sit. Plus he was a late scratching recently so not sure if there was a problem
5 WEEMALANEWS $51 goes best when drawn to lead and there is a ton of speed under him here so wait until he draws better
6 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 very disappointing last week when just plugged home late, would need some suicidal tactics up front here in order to be any chance at all as will be settling down closer to last than first
7 EARL HICKEY $101 no hope from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $17 draws to get a good trip and whilst he probably isn't going as well as he was a few runs back will be in the right spot to be in the exotics mix. Good place hope
9 MAROSSI $26 resuming and goes okay at his top but place only from this draw
10 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $26 was held up at first Tassie start but was beaten a fair way, wait until he gets back in the draw
Ratings 1/2/4/8/9/10/3/6
Race 5
1 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $7 has the emergency services formline of 000 but was actually travelling okay when broke in the straight last week so from this draw is a chance
2 CULLENS COUNT NZ $4.5 was beaten by a couple of good horses last time so run was a shade better than it looks on paper so whilst he doesn't win out of turn, he has good gatespeed, looks the leader and the one to run down
3 LOCKDOWN $15 disappointed last time in but has ability when right so could surprise if returns at the top of his game. Watch betting
4 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling
5 ULTIMATE HEIR $51 can't see him figuring
6 LISKENS GIFT $5 very good run last time when led from barrier one and whilst he always runs his best races in front and doubt he can lead here he is tough and this isn't a strong race so right in the mix
7 KING FOR A DAY $17 resumes here and has the ability to feature at his best but hard to back from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET $11 opportunist type who draws to get the cheap run he loves, if the breaks come at the right time could be the blowout
9 SAAB QUALITY $8 had his chance last week and disappointed in the run home, this is easier but has always run his best races in front so whilst he is right up there ability wise compared to the rest he needs to lift
10 BIDE YOUR TIME $4 probably the best horse in the race but draws awkwardly, with any luck in running is clearly the one to beat so goes on top
Ratings 10/2/6/1/9/8/3/7
Race 6
1 WINJAMMER $4 resumes and has trialled okay and has a ton of ability at his best. Also enjoys a healthy advantage over most of his rivals at the handicaps so with a clean getaway will take a ton of beating
2 DODGERMEMATE $13 just a fair run when resuming, also well handicapped so has some hope if he does everything right
3 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $6 much better run last time when copped pressure midrace, always a chance in these races courtesy of his manners
4 ALLA BREVE $17 very average last time in similar garde, has ability at his top but been a while since he has showed it. Prefer others
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $13 had support at first Tassie run and faded after having every hope, obviously was showing something to justify the support so keeping relatively safe but still can't see him winning
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $13 finding it hard from the handicaps these days but past couple have been better than previous runs so is some hope
7 SKY TOWER $3 clearly better than them but has a 30m handicap to overcome so can't afford to do anything wrong. Still clearly the one to beat though
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $6 stablemate of Sky Tower and there isn't a great deal between them ability wise and if this bloke got the perfect drag into the race could surprise
Ratings 7/1/3/8/field
Race 7
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $9 been going okay in similar fields, has gatespeed but best runs have definitely been when driven with cover so if sat leaders back here would be a major place chance
2 MISTER GALLENTI $9 honest horse who had every hope to beat Biggernbettermax last time and just missed and should get a similar trip from here so won't be too far away
3 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $2.5 has a great record being placed at all 12 career starts and winning 8 of them. He is a hard horse to assess though as never looks impressive as a rule but gets the job done. I have priced him at $2.5 as unsure if he will lead here but still clearly the horse to beat though as he never lies down
4 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 been superbly driven to place behind the 2 favs at past couple but will need another R Duggan special to feature here. Find it hard to see him winning but a first four hope
5 TEEJAY FELLA $3.0 not sure whether I am overrating its last win which I thought was enormous when he ran the quickest lead time of the night yet still raced away late in a 58.1 closing half. I give him a huge chance with a repeat of that and would have him fav if he drew inside the 3 horse
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $34 going okay but this draw and this trip make it ultra difficult to see him featuring
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 this is too hard from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 disgraceful run at first start for new stable when he couldn't keep up, whilst he has ability at best its impossible to back him on that run
9 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $13 ran an honest race in a Claimer last week but this is obviously harder, has the ability to bob up on occasions though so don't ignore completely
Ratings 3/5/1/2/9/4/6
Race 8
1 TIME TO PRAY $51 unplaced in all 15 career starts so despite the good draw its hard to make any case
2 ANOPTOMIST $3.0 honest type who lacks a bit of zip but might just find the pegs here and be hard to run down if he does
3 DREAMON DONNY $51 this looks too hard
4 HONEST ART $7 resuming and was competitive against some good horses last time in and has been okay at the trials, a must for exotics
5 KARALTA LADY $5 very hard horse to assess as has the 000 formline but at her best has beaten better than these. Is resuming and just fair at the trials but is a definite market watch
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $21 good run when resuming when ran home well then didn't do much last time, hard to see him winning but with the lack of depth in the race might sneak into the exotics
7 ITS A HOOT $3.0 been very good at all 3 runs since resuming, no doubt should have won 2 starts back when held up then boxed on bravely after death seating from this same gate last time. The one to beat
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GUNBOWER JACK $101 been getting beaten a long way in easier races, no
9 HERNANDES $67 another horse who is yet to be placed and whilst resuming here its still hard to make a case despite not beig hopeless at the trials
10 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $67 sat leaders back and was gone a long way from home last time, has run a couple of decent races in the past but can't have on last performance
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 last run actually wasn't too bad after working hard early from barrier 7, probably the best of the roughies in the race but the draw probably means he will struggle
Ratings 7/2/5/4/6/11
Race 9
1 RIKKISU $26 is a filly taking on the boys and whilst she does go better than her form suggests she still looks outclassed
2 SMOKIN MUSTARD $2.5 past few have been okay and looks the leader here and there doesn't look to be much pressure. If gets a soft lead will probably win
3 DUSTY KALENA $6 has plenty of ability but still does a heap wrong, could surprise if puts it all together though
4 KARALTA WIZARD $2.5 resuming and went okay at the trials. Was definitely a better 2yo than his rivals here so its a bit of a guessing game as to where he is at fitness wise but must respect as the stable usually only produce them when ready
5 JUST DANCE BABY $5 looks like he will develop into a decent horse in time but still quite green, can certainly win with the right run but the draw concerns me a tad
1 THE BULLIONAIRE $17 pretty good run last time when made some ground out wide in a quick closing quarter. Definite place claims from this draw
2 CANCELLARA $34 not racing at his best and will need plenty of luck to win but should get a good trip from here so an exotics chance
3 AAPENNON $2.0 simply flying since a short let up winning both times by a big space. The battle for the early lead between him and the 4 is vitally important but see him holding up and therefore a clear top pick
4 FLYING DUBAI $2.80 enormous in defeat last time and whilst he generally runs his best races in front and probably won't get there this time is still a good chance as his last run was top notch
5 THE INHIBITOR $67 not going well enough
6 THABELA BRIOSO $26 battled on well last time after being 3 wide the trip, probably can't win but a good exotics hope
7 SHIRNELL $101 not from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $51 another racing below its best and might sneak into 4th at the very best
9 HYDEHURST BOY $11 resuming from short let up and has plenty of ability but his best performances have been when he has led so prepared to risk as a winning hope but is a must for exotics as did trial okay behind the star pacer Gedlee on Monday (beaten 8 metres, 2.01.7, 56.8, 2090m)
10 DOMANI GEM NZ $15 resumes here and has plenty of speed, will obviously need a lot of things to go right to win but is too good to dismiss completely
Ratings 3/4/1,9,10/6
Race 2
1 THE DETONATOR $3.0 has improved at every run this time in and won clearly last time. The big query is gatespeed as whilst he has some there is a bit outside him which makes it a very tricky race. Still the one to beat though
2 JET BLACK FLYER $4.50 had about 6 weeks since last run and was competitive with good horses last time in. Provided she is still at the same level will go close
3 ARK WEST $7 showed a bit as a young horse but hasn't really delivered in recent starts. Is first up here though and won a recent trial (2.04.2, 59.0, 2090m) so keep an eye on the market
4 STEELINGTON NZ $11 had 4 Tasmanian starts and has been fair in all of them but hasn't done enough to suggest he can win but still a good place hope
5 WINDY WINGS $34 had a bit of support at first run in the state and didn't give much after leading. Prefer to wait until he shows something
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER $34 past 2 have been average at best after promising a bit at first couple of runs for new stable, also runs best races when drawn to lead and doubt he can get over here
7 EL JAYS MAVERICK $34 continues to be plagued by bad barriers, would be some hope from a decent draw but can't have from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BRO TOWN NZ $6.0 past couple of runs have been excellent and should get a soft run from here. Going to need some luck but be right in the finish if gets any
9 ASHINAGA $26 resuming from a short let up and always tries hard but is limited ability wise. Rough chance for exotics
10 LITTLE ELF $11 pretty average as favourite last time but would be a chance on previous form. Lack of speed may play against him from this draw though so place only
Ratings 1/2/8/3/4/10/9
Race 3
1 ARTIFICE $4.5 definitely the pin up girl for bookmakers as been a short price at past 5 starts and been beaten every time ($3.10, $2.40, $2.60, $1.60, $1.40). Draws the pole in a mile race here so likely to be poisonous odds again but you would want $5 minimum to back her. She is still some hope purely based on the draw and distance as I reckon the mile trip suits her much better so don't discard completely
2 THIRTYSIXTOES $17 honest mare who had every hope last time and just battled but always an exotics hope when she draws well
3 TASPACEDOTCOM $101 still a maiden and be very surprised to see that status change here
4 EL JAYS MODEENA $4.5 well driven last time when chased home a smart one and whilst she was beaten clearly, it is worth noting that she beat the 3rd horse by 8 metres herself which is usually a good form reference. EW chance again
5 STRATEGIC MISS $101 led and got run over in a weaker race last time. No
6 KOIZORA $51 not the worst but would need a good draw to be any hope against these and draws badly so prepared to ignore
7 MOUNTAIN MOMMA $67 draw makes it tough as will settle last and simply doesn't have the ability to beat this field from there
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ALMA GRANT $4 tragedy beaten last time but gets a horror draw here. Would be a clear top pick from a better gate but simply must respect as will probably win with even luck
9 NIGHT IN VEGAS $6 thought she was a shade disappointing last time when perfectly driven to just miss in a similar field. Never runs a bad race though so is a must include
10 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $17 past couple just a shade below what is needed to win here, wouldn't totally surprise to see her run a place though if the breaks go her way
11 FLYIN INDI AIR $7 hard runner to assess as disgraced herself at first Tasmanian run when she simply refused to go. If you are prepared to put that down to a "female moment" then she is a definite chance. Its worth noting that she made the Group 1 Breeders Crown final 4 runs back and chased home Make Mine Cullen and Broadways Best, plus she also won a recent trial (2.06.4, 58.5, 2090m)
12 BAJARDO RIVER $101 bobs up on occasions but will need a ton of luck from here
Ratings 8/4/1/9/11/2/10
Race 4
1 DIEBERDON $1.80 super win when resuming when worked early and dug deep late in 2.00 rate. Showed enough speed early last time to suggest that will hold up early so a clear top pick. Am a tad concerned that Iden Justasmyrk may keep the heat on during the race but still must go on top
2 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $4 hasn't enjoyed a great deal of luck at recent starts but that can also be attributed somewhat to her racing style as is very one dimensional. However, from this draw should enjoy the type of run she loves and is the main danger to the pole if that occurs
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $34 form is actually a lot better than it looks (would want to be though) but this is a hard race. One to watch with an eye for an easier race down the track and throw in the shallow end of exotics
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $6 disappointed last time when seemingly had the race won and stopped as if shot. He is tough and right up with the top 2 ability wise but the way the draw has fallen makes him the 3rd pick as can't see him leading which means he will most likely be death seating and even if he grinds the pole into the ground, the 2 will be having a cold sit. Plus he was a late scratching recently so not sure if there was a problem
5 WEEMALANEWS $51 goes best when drawn to lead and there is a ton of speed under him here so wait until he draws better
6 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 very disappointing last week when just plugged home late, would need some suicidal tactics up front here in order to be any chance at all as will be settling down closer to last than first
7 EARL HICKEY $101 no hope from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $17 draws to get a good trip and whilst he probably isn't going as well as he was a few runs back will be in the right spot to be in the exotics mix. Good place hope
9 MAROSSI $26 resuming and goes okay at his top but place only from this draw
10 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $26 was held up at first Tassie start but was beaten a fair way, wait until he gets back in the draw
Ratings 1/2/4/8/9/10/3/6
Race 5
1 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $7 has the emergency services formline of 000 but was actually travelling okay when broke in the straight last week so from this draw is a chance
2 CULLENS COUNT NZ $4.5 was beaten by a couple of good horses last time so run was a shade better than it looks on paper so whilst he doesn't win out of turn, he has good gatespeed, looks the leader and the one to run down
3 LOCKDOWN $15 disappointed last time in but has ability when right so could surprise if returns at the top of his game. Watch betting
4 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling
5 ULTIMATE HEIR $51 can't see him figuring
6 LISKENS GIFT $5 very good run last time when led from barrier one and whilst he always runs his best races in front and doubt he can lead here he is tough and this isn't a strong race so right in the mix
7 KING FOR A DAY $17 resumes here and has the ability to feature at his best but hard to back from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET $11 opportunist type who draws to get the cheap run he loves, if the breaks come at the right time could be the blowout
9 SAAB QUALITY $8 had his chance last week and disappointed in the run home, this is easier but has always run his best races in front so whilst he is right up there ability wise compared to the rest he needs to lift
10 BIDE YOUR TIME $4 probably the best horse in the race but draws awkwardly, with any luck in running is clearly the one to beat so goes on top
Ratings 10/2/6/1/9/8/3/7
Race 6
1 WINJAMMER $4 resumes and has trialled okay and has a ton of ability at his best. Also enjoys a healthy advantage over most of his rivals at the handicaps so with a clean getaway will take a ton of beating
2 DODGERMEMATE $13 just a fair run when resuming, also well handicapped so has some hope if he does everything right
3 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $6 much better run last time when copped pressure midrace, always a chance in these races courtesy of his manners
4 ALLA BREVE $17 very average last time in similar garde, has ability at his top but been a while since he has showed it. Prefer others
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $13 had support at first Tassie run and faded after having every hope, obviously was showing something to justify the support so keeping relatively safe but still can't see him winning
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $13 finding it hard from the handicaps these days but past couple have been better than previous runs so is some hope
7 SKY TOWER $3 clearly better than them but has a 30m handicap to overcome so can't afford to do anything wrong. Still clearly the one to beat though
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $6 stablemate of Sky Tower and there isn't a great deal between them ability wise and if this bloke got the perfect drag into the race could surprise
Ratings 7/1/3/8/field
Race 7
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $9 been going okay in similar fields, has gatespeed but best runs have definitely been when driven with cover so if sat leaders back here would be a major place chance
2 MISTER GALLENTI $9 honest horse who had every hope to beat Biggernbettermax last time and just missed and should get a similar trip from here so won't be too far away
3 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $2.5 has a great record being placed at all 12 career starts and winning 8 of them. He is a hard horse to assess though as never looks impressive as a rule but gets the job done. I have priced him at $2.5 as unsure if he will lead here but still clearly the horse to beat though as he never lies down
4 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 been superbly driven to place behind the 2 favs at past couple but will need another R Duggan special to feature here. Find it hard to see him winning but a first four hope
5 TEEJAY FELLA $3.0 not sure whether I am overrating its last win which I thought was enormous when he ran the quickest lead time of the night yet still raced away late in a 58.1 closing half. I give him a huge chance with a repeat of that and would have him fav if he drew inside the 3 horse
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $34 going okay but this draw and this trip make it ultra difficult to see him featuring
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 this is too hard from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 disgraceful run at first start for new stable when he couldn't keep up, whilst he has ability at best its impossible to back him on that run
9 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $13 ran an honest race in a Claimer last week but this is obviously harder, has the ability to bob up on occasions though so don't ignore completely
Ratings 3/5/1/2/9/4/6
Race 8
1 TIME TO PRAY $51 unplaced in all 15 career starts so despite the good draw its hard to make any case
2 ANOPTOMIST $3.0 honest type who lacks a bit of zip but might just find the pegs here and be hard to run down if he does
3 DREAMON DONNY $51 this looks too hard
4 HONEST ART $7 resuming and was competitive against some good horses last time in and has been okay at the trials, a must for exotics
5 KARALTA LADY $5 very hard horse to assess as has the 000 formline but at her best has beaten better than these. Is resuming and just fair at the trials but is a definite market watch
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $21 good run when resuming when ran home well then didn't do much last time, hard to see him winning but with the lack of depth in the race might sneak into the exotics
7 ITS A HOOT $3.0 been very good at all 3 runs since resuming, no doubt should have won 2 starts back when held up then boxed on bravely after death seating from this same gate last time. The one to beat
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GUNBOWER JACK $101 been getting beaten a long way in easier races, no
9 HERNANDES $67 another horse who is yet to be placed and whilst resuming here its still hard to make a case despite not beig hopeless at the trials
10 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $67 sat leaders back and was gone a long way from home last time, has run a couple of decent races in the past but can't have on last performance
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 last run actually wasn't too bad after working hard early from barrier 7, probably the best of the roughies in the race but the draw probably means he will struggle
Ratings 7/2/5/4/6/11
Race 9
1 RIKKISU $26 is a filly taking on the boys and whilst she does go better than her form suggests she still looks outclassed
2 SMOKIN MUSTARD $2.5 past few have been okay and looks the leader here and there doesn't look to be much pressure. If gets a soft lead will probably win
3 DUSTY KALENA $6 has plenty of ability but still does a heap wrong, could surprise if puts it all together though
4 KARALTA WIZARD $2.5 resuming and went okay at the trials. Was definitely a better 2yo than his rivals here so its a bit of a guessing game as to where he is at fitness wise but must respect as the stable usually only produce them when ready
5 JUST DANCE BABY $5 looks like he will develop into a decent horse in time but still quite green, can certainly win with the right run but the draw concerns me a tad
Monday, October 25, 2010
Meeting Summary - Launceston October 24
Drive of the Night
Rohan Hadley, pretty clear cut actually and could have gone to either of his drives on Aapennon or Rememberpreece as both were perfect but the latter gets the nod. It was excruciating for me to watch actually as I laid the winner at the short odds and also backed the 2nd horse (Kept Calm) at huge odds to win $2k and it beat me by a nose on the line. Suffice to say, if he didn't drive it perfectly it doesn't win
Also thought that Rohan Hillier's drive on Bonny Wee Laddie was exemplary and Ricky Duggan again showed why he has been such a good driver for a long time with a couple of copybook drives. Kate MacLeod's drive on El Jays Modeena from barrier 8 was worthy of victory and deserves a mention but unfortunately just misses the cut
Driver votes
3. R Hadley
2. R Hillier
1. R Duggan
Notable performances - 6 winners absolutely walked in
Aapennon, is flying at the moment and should continue on winning ways
Empty Envelope, super performance at first start and looks a good horse
Crash Cart, been promising a lot for a while but finally delivered
Denvers Boy, well deserved win and is just a good, honest horse
Bubbas A Fake, looked well graded on best form and showed it
Bonny Wee Laddie, killing them in the claimers at present
A few went okay behind Denvers Boy (The Jouster, Balencia, Thabela Brioso, Rushin Courage) but form from mile races can be dodgy
Muppet of the Night
Me again, I left Bubbas A Fake out of my quaddie despite rating her a $8 chance. Just silly
Rohan Hadley, pretty clear cut actually and could have gone to either of his drives on Aapennon or Rememberpreece as both were perfect but the latter gets the nod. It was excruciating for me to watch actually as I laid the winner at the short odds and also backed the 2nd horse (Kept Calm) at huge odds to win $2k and it beat me by a nose on the line. Suffice to say, if he didn't drive it perfectly it doesn't win
Also thought that Rohan Hillier's drive on Bonny Wee Laddie was exemplary and Ricky Duggan again showed why he has been such a good driver for a long time with a couple of copybook drives. Kate MacLeod's drive on El Jays Modeena from barrier 8 was worthy of victory and deserves a mention but unfortunately just misses the cut
Driver votes
3. R Hadley
2. R Hillier
1. R Duggan
Notable performances - 6 winners absolutely walked in
Aapennon, is flying at the moment and should continue on winning ways
Empty Envelope, super performance at first start and looks a good horse
Crash Cart, been promising a lot for a while but finally delivered
Denvers Boy, well deserved win and is just a good, honest horse
Bubbas A Fake, looked well graded on best form and showed it
Bonny Wee Laddie, killing them in the claimers at present
A few went okay behind Denvers Boy (The Jouster, Balencia, Thabela Brioso, Rushin Courage) but form from mile races can be dodgy
Muppet of the Night
Me again, I left Bubbas A Fake out of my quaddie despite rating her a $8 chance. Just silly
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Sunday Tips
Kilmore
not a good thing by any means but going to have something on R5#4 Decorated Jasper at decent odds and reckon R7#5 Karlsruhe is good value in the Cup
Launceston - all races
R1#3 Aapennon
R2#6 Empty Envelope
R3#11 Our Kaizan
R4#3 The Jouster
R5#7 The Musics Over
R6#4 Sanreos
R7#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#9 Albert Jones
Best Bet
R8#9 Albert Jones, pretty confident in races 1,2,7,8 actually but a couple of those might be too short and Albert should be $2.50 at worst
Best Value
R5#6 Ramblin Cullen - didn't put him as my top pick but should be double figures and give him some hope of knocking off the fav if the breaks come. EW
Quaddie
3,5,6,10,11
1,2,4,6,7
2,3,4,5,7,9,10
8
Going wide early and hoping for some value
not a good thing by any means but going to have something on R5#4 Decorated Jasper at decent odds and reckon R7#5 Karlsruhe is good value in the Cup
Launceston - all races
R1#3 Aapennon
R2#6 Empty Envelope
R3#11 Our Kaizan
R4#3 The Jouster
R5#7 The Musics Over
R6#4 Sanreos
R7#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#9 Albert Jones
Best Bet
R8#9 Albert Jones, pretty confident in races 1,2,7,8 actually but a couple of those might be too short and Albert should be $2.50 at worst
Best Value
R5#6 Ramblin Cullen - didn't put him as my top pick but should be double figures and give him some hope of knocking off the fav if the breaks come. EW
Quaddie
3,5,6,10,11
1,2,4,6,7
2,3,4,5,7,9,10
8
Going wide early and hoping for some value
Launceston Preview and Ratings
Race 1
1 MONICAS NOTCH $11, going better than figure form suggests, keeps whacking away and good place prospect from this draw
2 WINDY WINGS $34 having first Tasmanian start and also first start for the Pullicino camp. Form is average to say the least being unplaced at past 25 runs but the stable have a history of improving horses so not prepared to discard completely
3 AAPENNON $1.50 had no luck but still won as he liked last time and this is easier if anything. Clear top pick
4 ROCKY CREEK $21 tends to save best form for the tight Devonport track but isn't totally hopeless although he does race best in front
5 STEELINGTON NZ $13 hasn't been disgraced in all Tassie runs so far and this is by far its easiest assignment, good EW prospect
6 BUNJIL BOY $101 form prior to spell was just average and won't find it easy from out here
7 AS YOU WISH $34 runs on well in his races and whilst he will need plenty of luck from this draw might sneak a place
8 CHASSYS BEST $101 another who saves best form for Devonport and from this gate almost faces mission impossible
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JANSZOON $17 wasn't too bad at first Tassie start and should enjoy a cosy pegs run here so a definite place prospect
10 LITTLE MISS AJAY $51 has some ability but does too much wrong to be considered a chance
11 SOPHIES PLEASURE $7 galloped out when resuming but held on okay late, at her best would be right in this so is the main danger to fav
Ratings 3/11/1/5/9/4/2?
Race 2
1 MELMAN $4 one paced type who races best when on the speed, draws to get every hope
2 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $21 didn't do much at first start but was trialling okay prior so may improve but would need to
3 RAMSAYS FURY $34 resuming and whilst has some ability place chances look best
4 OUR LAST KNIGHT $34 been competitive of late but won't find this any easier
5 JAGER BOMB NZ $9 disgraced himself first up when led and collapsed but did go okay last time making some ground out wide in a 28.6 closing split. Not the worst
6 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.2 going ultra well at the trials and the stable is on fire of late. Interesting to note that the horse he clearly beat at the trials (Packedtotherafters) ran an enormous race for 2nd at his debut a fortnight ago so have some type of form reference.
7 TOP PREMIER $26 sit/sprint type who will be giving the leaders a big start from this gate so place best
8 EL JAYS MODEENA $15 been pretty good at past couple and would be some hope from a decent barrier but still a place hope from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM $21 half sister to Shez Ryleymak who was okay at first start, should get a cheap run here and may run into the minor end of the exotics
10 ATTA JET $17 showed some promise early on but didn't quite live up to it, still a decent place hope though despite the 2nd row
11 INTHENICKOFTIME $17 much improved run last week but this is no easier so place best again
12 CLEG ON TIME $101 first up for a couple of years and was pretty plain at the trials
Ratings 6/1/5/8/11/2,7,9,10
Race 3
1 CYCLONE DYNASTY $13 one paced type who has some gatespeed so if led might give some cheek but his lack of high speed means he rarely wins
2 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $17 resuming and usually competitive but this is a pretty tough race, place only
3 WAIKOKO KING $101 hasn't won for 4 years and form prior to spell did nothing to enthuse
4 APACHE ALBA $51 went fairly at first run back from a year off but this is harder, no
5 CRASH CART $8 has plenty of ability but draw is some concern with a lack of gatespeed but still an EW prospect
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $11 disappointed last time but was going okay prior but from this draw might find this tough so is place only
7 RUBYS LIFE $13 good win last time (bless her heart) but was against far inferior opposition as was in against early season 3YOs. This is much tougher
8 SAAB QUALITY $3.8 form has tapered off lately but would love to see him fire out of the gate and race on the speed as would win clearly at best
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MATAI NIGEL NZ $8 pretty good run when resuming and should get a decent run through from here and if gets the breaks may surprise
10 BARKERS RUN $34 been starting at huge odds recently but did run okay last time and not the roughest
11 OUR KAIZAN NZ $3.5 did a power of mid race work and boxed on tenaciously last start, clearly the one to beat with a repeat of that
Ratings 11/8/9/5/1/6/7/2/10
Race 4
1 CANCELLARA $11 honest type who is always a chance if race is run to suit, probably need a touch of luck but won't be far away
2 COMMANDER DATA $17 generally races best on the tight Devonport track but has gatespeed and mile trip suits, not the roughest
3 THE JOUSTER $3.5 very good win last time coming from well back to race away in a 58.4 closing half. Go close with even luck
4 BALENCIA $17 one paced mare who would be right in this at her best but last run was awful and huge improvement needed
5 THABELA BRIOSO $13 has a good record in mile races and might surprise again
6 DENVERS BOY $5 very honest having finished no worse than 4th at past 8 runs, will probably press forward from out here and make his own luck. Won't be far away
7 EL JAYS MAVERICK $34 has ability but also has little gatespeed so will go back from the draw and being first up I am prepared to risk
8 THE INHIBITOR $51 find it too tough from the draw
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $17 form has tapered off a tad but loves getting a cheap run and if settled 3 pegs and the split came could surprise
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY $5 has a good trailing draw and had no luck last time, doesn't win out of turn but looks well graded here, has Gareth and also trialled well last week. Big chance
11 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $9 having first start in Tassie but has a good turn of speed and tended to race best over short trips in Victoria so is some chance despite the draw
Ratings 3/10/6/11/1/2,4,5,9
Race 5
1 TOPNOTCH DAN $7 returns to Tasmania and has plenty of ability when right so watch any markets leads closely. Has plenty of speed drawn outside him as well so likely to get buried on the pegs but still have to keep relatively safe
2 HARLEY FELLA $5.5 never runs a bad race but lacks a touch of high speed which can cost him but will be competitive as usual
3 WINGSOFANEAGLE $17 had his chance last week when led and walked but couldn't hang on in a weaker race. May be first to the pegs here but would need to hand up to be any hope
4 KING OF BLING $6 another with good gatespeed who races best with a sit, probably a shade better suited to the mile trip but only needs the right run and will be in the finish
5 SON OF JAM $21 disappointed since resuming but did break last time so can excuse that one. Need plenty of luck to figure though
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $6 started at double figure odds and ran unplaced in a weaker race last time but I thought his run was terrific coming from last out wide in a 57.6 last half to be beaten 2 metres. Might be the value runner
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $2.4 probably entitled to be shorter than $2.5 based on formlines but I have some reservations about the draw and wouldn't want to take anything less
8 BUBBAS A FAKE $8 erratic mare who races best when drawn to lead so whilst she has plenty of ability I prefer to wait until she is back in the draw
Ratings 7/6/1,2,4/8
Race 6
1 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $15 been disappointing this time in, this is best draw in ages though so may improve but would need to. Place only
2 KEPT CALM $15 ran a couple of cheeky races from bad draws since resuming and from this gate might surprise and not the roughest
3 CURRYNROSES $8 another who has been a shade below her best of late but has had a let up and would go very close at best so keeping relatively safe
4 SANREOS $4 good tough win last start, should again work to her favourite role in the death and take some getting past
5 REMEMBERPREECE $5 every hope when resuming and beaten by King Of Bling who races in the previous so might get a formline, looks well graded on best form so respect
6 KING ALBERT $17 never runs a bad race but also finds it hard to win so from this gate is place only
7 MURPHYS ROCKET $9 no luck last time and despite the bad draw is in the mix of winning hopes
8 TROJAN CALM NZ $21 resuming and might find it tough from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOADED TO RUN $13 has ability but draw does him no favours so place only
10 MI MADEMOISELLE $5 forget last start when on worst behaviour, previous form in better races gives her a good chance
Ratings 4/5/10/3/7/9/2,6/1
Race 7
1 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $6 first up in the state and a big market watch as has performed well in the past when leading. Recent form just fair but keeping safe
2 DODGERMEMATE $15 resuming and has ability but can be erratic at times and need to do everything right to win this
3 KINGS A COACH $6 was pretty average during his stint with the Webster stable but would be competitive in this at best and did trial okay last week (rate 2.00.2, half 58.9, 2170m) so may improve on recent efforts
4 REDSIDE SHREK $13 another horse resuming who would be competitive at his top but may need a run or two
5 YUSHCHENKO LEIS $4.5 also resumes from a short let up but was a model of consistency last campaign and if anywhere near best will go close
6 CASTASPELL $51 better suited to stands nowadays
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $26 has ability when right but form has tapered right off lately so wait until he shows something
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $1.60 has been almost unbeatable in these mobile races as gets into them so well as an M5. Can also be driven in whatever manner it takes to win so is a clear top pick again
Ratings 8/1/3/2/4
Race 8
1 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) $26 manners have been letting him down at the start in recent stand races but doubt he has the speed to beat a few of these from the mobile
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $13 good winner of a stand 2 runs back, not as well served from the mobile but won't be far away
3 FORTY TWO GRAND ($5,000) $17 is usually thereabouts and whilst he doesn't win too often he rarely runs a bad one. One for exotics
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $26 one paced type better suited to stands
5 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $8 enigmatic type with plenty of ability when on song. Good win at big odds 2 starts back then blew the stand last time so definitely is in the mix
6 NIBEBO ($5,000) $34 was some support for him last time and whilst he wasn't too bad this is harder, no
7 ROCK AND RUN ($7,000) $6 first start for Pullicino stable and whilst form is woeful he does go well when right and also has tons of gatespeed. Watch for any market moves to determine his chances
8 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($10,000) $3.5 finally got himself in a truly run race last time and blew them away, will go back at start and need a true tempo again but is always competitive at this level
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ALBERT JONES ($10,000) $2.8 has a very good record in these mobile claimers and the draw is actually okay for him as should settle ahead of a couple. The one to beat
Ratings 9/8/7/5/2/3
1 MONICAS NOTCH $11, going better than figure form suggests, keeps whacking away and good place prospect from this draw
2 WINDY WINGS $34 having first Tasmanian start and also first start for the Pullicino camp. Form is average to say the least being unplaced at past 25 runs but the stable have a history of improving horses so not prepared to discard completely
3 AAPENNON $1.50 had no luck but still won as he liked last time and this is easier if anything. Clear top pick
4 ROCKY CREEK $21 tends to save best form for the tight Devonport track but isn't totally hopeless although he does race best in front
5 STEELINGTON NZ $13 hasn't been disgraced in all Tassie runs so far and this is by far its easiest assignment, good EW prospect
6 BUNJIL BOY $101 form prior to spell was just average and won't find it easy from out here
7 AS YOU WISH $34 runs on well in his races and whilst he will need plenty of luck from this draw might sneak a place
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JANSZOON $17 wasn't too bad at first Tassie start and should enjoy a cosy pegs run here so a definite place prospect
10 LITTLE MISS AJAY $51 has some ability but does too much wrong to be considered a chance
11 SOPHIES PLEASURE $7 galloped out when resuming but held on okay late, at her best would be right in this so is the main danger to fav
Ratings 3/11/1/5/9/4/2?
Race 2
1 MELMAN $4 one paced type who races best when on the speed, draws to get every hope
2 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $21 didn't do much at first start but was trialling okay prior so may improve but would need to
3 RAMSAYS FURY $34 resuming and whilst has some ability place chances look best
4 OUR LAST KNIGHT $34 been competitive of late but won't find this any easier
5 JAGER BOMB NZ $9 disgraced himself first up when led and collapsed but did go okay last time making some ground out wide in a 28.6 closing split. Not the worst
6 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.2 going ultra well at the trials and the stable is on fire of late. Interesting to note that the horse he clearly beat at the trials (Packedtotherafters) ran an enormous race for 2nd at his debut a fortnight ago so have some type of form reference.
7 TOP PREMIER $26 sit/sprint type who will be giving the leaders a big start from this gate so place best
8 EL JAYS MODEENA $15 been pretty good at past couple and would be some hope from a decent barrier but still a place hope from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM $21 half sister to Shez Ryleymak who was okay at first start, should get a cheap run here and may run into the minor end of the exotics
10 ATTA JET $17 showed some promise early on but didn't quite live up to it, still a decent place hope though despite the 2nd row
11 INTHENICKOFTIME $17 much improved run last week but this is no easier so place best again
12 CLEG ON TIME $101 first up for a couple of years and was pretty plain at the trials
Ratings 6/1/5/8/11/2,7,9,10
Race 3
1 CYCLONE DYNASTY $13 one paced type who has some gatespeed so if led might give some cheek but his lack of high speed means he rarely wins
2 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $17 resuming and usually competitive but this is a pretty tough race, place only
3 WAIKOKO KING $101 hasn't won for 4 years and form prior to spell did nothing to enthuse
4 APACHE ALBA $51 went fairly at first run back from a year off but this is harder, no
5 CRASH CART $8 has plenty of ability but draw is some concern with a lack of gatespeed but still an EW prospect
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $11 disappointed last time but was going okay prior but from this draw might find this tough so is place only
7 RUBYS LIFE $13 good win last time (bless her heart) but was against far inferior opposition as was in against early season 3YOs. This is much tougher
8 SAAB QUALITY $3.8 form has tapered off lately but would love to see him fire out of the gate and race on the speed as would win clearly at best
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MATAI NIGEL NZ $8 pretty good run when resuming and should get a decent run through from here and if gets the breaks may surprise
10 BARKERS RUN $34 been starting at huge odds recently but did run okay last time and not the roughest
11 OUR KAIZAN NZ $3.5 did a power of mid race work and boxed on tenaciously last start, clearly the one to beat with a repeat of that
Ratings 11/8/9/5/1/6/7/2/10
Race 4
1 CANCELLARA $11 honest type who is always a chance if race is run to suit, probably need a touch of luck but won't be far away
2 COMMANDER DATA $17 generally races best on the tight Devonport track but has gatespeed and mile trip suits, not the roughest
3 THE JOUSTER $3.5 very good win last time coming from well back to race away in a 58.4 closing half. Go close with even luck
4 BALENCIA $17 one paced mare who would be right in this at her best but last run was awful and huge improvement needed
5 THABELA BRIOSO $13 has a good record in mile races and might surprise again
6 DENVERS BOY $5 very honest having finished no worse than 4th at past 8 runs, will probably press forward from out here and make his own luck. Won't be far away
7 EL JAYS MAVERICK $34 has ability but also has little gatespeed so will go back from the draw and being first up I am prepared to risk
8 THE INHIBITOR $51 find it too tough from the draw
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $17 form has tapered off a tad but loves getting a cheap run and if settled 3 pegs and the split came could surprise
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY $5 has a good trailing draw and had no luck last time, doesn't win out of turn but looks well graded here, has Gareth and also trialled well last week. Big chance
11 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $9 having first start in Tassie but has a good turn of speed and tended to race best over short trips in Victoria so is some chance despite the draw
Ratings 3/10/6/11/1/2,4,5,9
Race 5
1 TOPNOTCH DAN $7 returns to Tasmania and has plenty of ability when right so watch any markets leads closely. Has plenty of speed drawn outside him as well so likely to get buried on the pegs but still have to keep relatively safe
2 HARLEY FELLA $5.5 never runs a bad race but lacks a touch of high speed which can cost him but will be competitive as usual
3 WINGSOFANEAGLE $17 had his chance last week when led and walked but couldn't hang on in a weaker race. May be first to the pegs here but would need to hand up to be any hope
4 KING OF BLING $6 another with good gatespeed who races best with a sit, probably a shade better suited to the mile trip but only needs the right run and will be in the finish
5 SON OF JAM $21 disappointed since resuming but did break last time so can excuse that one. Need plenty of luck to figure though
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $6 started at double figure odds and ran unplaced in a weaker race last time but I thought his run was terrific coming from last out wide in a 57.6 last half to be beaten 2 metres. Might be the value runner
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $2.4 probably entitled to be shorter than $2.5 based on formlines but I have some reservations about the draw and wouldn't want to take anything less
8 BUBBAS A FAKE $8 erratic mare who races best when drawn to lead so whilst she has plenty of ability I prefer to wait until she is back in the draw
Ratings 7/6/1,2,4/8
Race 6
1 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $15 been disappointing this time in, this is best draw in ages though so may improve but would need to. Place only
2 KEPT CALM $15 ran a couple of cheeky races from bad draws since resuming and from this gate might surprise and not the roughest
3 CURRYNROSES $8 another who has been a shade below her best of late but has had a let up and would go very close at best so keeping relatively safe
4 SANREOS $4 good tough win last start, should again work to her favourite role in the death and take some getting past
5 REMEMBERPREECE $5 every hope when resuming and beaten by King Of Bling who races in the previous so might get a formline, looks well graded on best form so respect
6 KING ALBERT $17 never runs a bad race but also finds it hard to win so from this gate is place only
7 MURPHYS ROCKET $9 no luck last time and despite the bad draw is in the mix of winning hopes
8 TROJAN CALM NZ $21 resuming and might find it tough from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOADED TO RUN $13 has ability but draw does him no favours so place only
10 MI MADEMOISELLE $5 forget last start when on worst behaviour, previous form in better races gives her a good chance
Ratings 4/5/10/3/7/9/2,6/1
Race 7
1 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $6 first up in the state and a big market watch as has performed well in the past when leading. Recent form just fair but keeping safe
2 DODGERMEMATE $15 resuming and has ability but can be erratic at times and need to do everything right to win this
3 KINGS A COACH $6 was pretty average during his stint with the Webster stable but would be competitive in this at best and did trial okay last week (rate 2.00.2, half 58.9, 2170m) so may improve on recent efforts
4 REDSIDE SHREK $13 another horse resuming who would be competitive at his top but may need a run or two
6 CASTASPELL $51 better suited to stands nowadays
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $26 has ability when right but form has tapered right off lately so wait until he shows something
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $1.60 has been almost unbeatable in these mobile races as gets into them so well as an M5. Can also be driven in whatever manner it takes to win so is a clear top pick again
Ratings 8/1/3/2/4
Race 8
1 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) $26 manners have been letting him down at the start in recent stand races but doubt he has the speed to beat a few of these from the mobile
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $13 good winner of a stand 2 runs back, not as well served from the mobile but won't be far away
3 FORTY TWO GRAND ($5,000) $17 is usually thereabouts and whilst he doesn't win too often he rarely runs a bad one. One for exotics
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $26 one paced type better suited to stands
5 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $8 enigmatic type with plenty of ability when on song. Good win at big odds 2 starts back then blew the stand last time so definitely is in the mix
6 NIBEBO ($5,000) $34 was some support for him last time and whilst he wasn't too bad this is harder, no
7 ROCK AND RUN ($7,000) $6 first start for Pullicino stable and whilst form is woeful he does go well when right and also has tons of gatespeed. Watch for any market moves to determine his chances
8 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($10,000) $3.5 finally got himself in a truly run race last time and blew them away, will go back at start and need a true tempo again but is always competitive at this level
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ALBERT JONES ($10,000) $2.8 has a very good record in these mobile claimers and the draw is actually okay for him as should settle ahead of a couple. The one to beat
Ratings 9/8/7/5/2/3
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Saturday Tips
Won a motza off Rekindled Interest this arvo at the long striders which was my only bet so hope to increase the profits here
Ballarat
R4#2 Dublin Sands, should be a tinge of value I hope and worth a smaller bet
R5#7 Onedin Hustler, close to a good thing in my opinion, was on the quicksand on the fence at Melton last time and still won. The 5 drew barrier 13 and ran him to a neck last time but reckon he was flattered but still the only danger
Ballarat
R4#2 Dublin Sands, should be a tinge of value I hope and worth a smaller bet
R5#7 Onedin Hustler, close to a good thing in my opinion, was on the quicksand on the fence at Melton last time and still won. The 5 drew barrier 13 and ran him to a neck last time but reckon he was flattered but still the only danger
Blacks A Fake
I went to the races last night for no other reason than to watch the champ in the flesh and its something all of us should do more often if we get the opportunity.
He was simply awesome last night putting them to the sword and finishing off in a lazy 54.7. There is a fair argument to say that the champ is going better than ever despite now being a 10 year old if you simply look at the times he has run this time in. Its worth noting that this is his first uninterrupted preparation in about 3 years (bar an atrial fibrillation episode) so its no surprise to see him doing it in hindsight.
He is simply the best horse I have seen and ever likely to see to be honest. 88 starts for 64 wins, 4 InterDominion wins (should be 5 bar for a mad pulling Auckland Reactor) and has been consistently good over a long period of time.
That being said, I am the first to admit that I also didn't give him the credit he deserved early on. He doesn't have the high speed of a lot of good horses, he doesn't win by big margins, he doesn't look impressive a lot of times yet unlike most he has no weakness. Even watching last night, I knew deep down he would dig deep and win but its just amazing to see his will to win when he actually does it.
The sad part is that precious few got to see it, he is trained locally on the Gold Coast at Tambourine yet the media was dominated by the touring car race this weekend and there wasn't a single story on Blackie in the media all week. He should be an icon of Australian sport with his deeds yet he just doesn't make the conversation even in racing terms. Forums this week were dominated with posts about So You Think who has won a total of 6 races in his career which probably in itself shows the gulf between thoroughbred and harness racing nowadays in the public eye.
It will probably take a lot of people 20 years to appreciate simply how good Blackie is and I only hope the industry is still viable at that time as he should be spoken about with not just the greats of harness racing but in the same breath as general racing icons such as Phar Lap.
Can he win his 5th InterDominion this year in Auckland? I for one don't doubt him.
He was simply awesome last night putting them to the sword and finishing off in a lazy 54.7. There is a fair argument to say that the champ is going better than ever despite now being a 10 year old if you simply look at the times he has run this time in. Its worth noting that this is his first uninterrupted preparation in about 3 years (bar an atrial fibrillation episode) so its no surprise to see him doing it in hindsight.
He is simply the best horse I have seen and ever likely to see to be honest. 88 starts for 64 wins, 4 InterDominion wins (should be 5 bar for a mad pulling Auckland Reactor) and has been consistently good over a long period of time.
That being said, I am the first to admit that I also didn't give him the credit he deserved early on. He doesn't have the high speed of a lot of good horses, he doesn't win by big margins, he doesn't look impressive a lot of times yet unlike most he has no weakness. Even watching last night, I knew deep down he would dig deep and win but its just amazing to see his will to win when he actually does it.
The sad part is that precious few got to see it, he is trained locally on the Gold Coast at Tambourine yet the media was dominated by the touring car race this weekend and there wasn't a single story on Blackie in the media all week. He should be an icon of Australian sport with his deeds yet he just doesn't make the conversation even in racing terms. Forums this week were dominated with posts about So You Think who has won a total of 6 races in his career which probably in itself shows the gulf between thoroughbred and harness racing nowadays in the public eye.
It will probably take a lot of people 20 years to appreciate simply how good Blackie is and I only hope the industry is still viable at that time as he should be spoken about with not just the greats of harness racing but in the same breath as general racing icons such as Phar Lap.
Can he win his 5th InterDominion this year in Auckland? I for one don't doubt him.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Friday Tips
Only horse I like all day is this arvo
Charlton
R6#2 Trojan Delight and hoping for no worse than $1.80
Shocking meetings tonight (Melton is atrocious) but I am going to head out and watch Blackie strut his stuff at the Gold Coast tonight so have picked a few out there to have a small bet on. A couple of them will be decent value
R1#10 Ok Tobago
R3#10 Comebackmach
R5#10 The Avoca Flyer
R7#2 Herc The Merc
Going to have small win bets on all 4 of them and also take them individually into these 2 in trebles as both be short
R4#2 Mega Alexander
R6#5 Blacks A Fake
Only spending $200 in bets - having 4 x $30 win bets and 4 x $20 trebles
Not much help to Mike unfortunately, lets hope one wins anyway to make the Club visit worthwhile
Charlton
R6#2 Trojan Delight and hoping for no worse than $1.80
Shocking meetings tonight (Melton is atrocious) but I am going to head out and watch Blackie strut his stuff at the Gold Coast tonight so have picked a few out there to have a small bet on. A couple of them will be decent value
R1#10 Ok Tobago
R3#10 Comebackmach
R5#10 The Avoca Flyer
R7#2 Herc The Merc
Going to have small win bets on all 4 of them and also take them individually into these 2 in trebles as both be short
R4#2 Mega Alexander
R6#5 Blacks A Fake
Only spending $200 in bets - having 4 x $30 win bets and 4 x $20 trebles
Not much help to Mike unfortunately, lets hope one wins anyway to make the Club visit worthwhile
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Good call by Clive
In an effort to stymie what would surely be the end of both Harness Racing and Greyhound Racing in South East Queensland (the biggest population growth centre in the country), billionaire mining tycoon and harness racing devotee Clive Palmer has put his 5c worth into the debate and he makes a lot of sense. Could probably use better phrasing than 5c worth when talking about Clive actually!!
Clive's views can be read here:
http://www.brisbanebusinessnews.com.au/article940/PALMER%20WANTS%20BOB%20BENTLEY%20REINED%20IN.html
In short, Racing Queensland have set in place all these wonderful plans for the betterment of the thoroughbred industry but its all at the cost of the other two codes. It isn't too surprising really when you consider that the RQ board is comprised of 6 members (4 thoroughbred, 1 harness, 1 greyhound) so any thoroughbred proposal is going to get the green light unless the Government vetoes it.
The State Government has already reclaimed the land that the Gold Coast Harness track is built on to build a new hospital so it is closing within a couple of years so the decision to sell Albion Park would be an unmitigated disaster for the code. The Gold Coast decision is a strange one, the place is booming and plays host to 4 national sporting teams (AFL, NRL, NBL, A League) which not many cities can claim plus it undoubtedly hosted the most successful InterDominion carnival in recent history yet it is going with little fanfare and no plans at all to relocate within the region.
Nobody wants to go to Deagon or Ipswich but Mr Bentley and his cronies can't see past their own backyard with their narcissistic views
Clive's views can be read here:
http://www.brisbanebusinessnews.com.au/article940/PALMER%20WANTS%20BOB%20BENTLEY%20REINED%20IN.html
In short, Racing Queensland have set in place all these wonderful plans for the betterment of the thoroughbred industry but its all at the cost of the other two codes. It isn't too surprising really when you consider that the RQ board is comprised of 6 members (4 thoroughbred, 1 harness, 1 greyhound) so any thoroughbred proposal is going to get the green light unless the Government vetoes it.
The State Government has already reclaimed the land that the Gold Coast Harness track is built on to build a new hospital so it is closing within a couple of years so the decision to sell Albion Park would be an unmitigated disaster for the code. The Gold Coast decision is a strange one, the place is booming and plays host to 4 national sporting teams (AFL, NRL, NBL, A League) which not many cities can claim plus it undoubtedly hosted the most successful InterDominion carnival in recent history yet it is going with little fanfare and no plans at all to relocate within the region.
Nobody wants to go to Deagon or Ipswich but Mr Bentley and his cronies can't see past their own backyard with their narcissistic views
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
HRV Prizemoney - AGAIN!!!
I know I am starting to sound like a broken record with this subject but I find it almost mind boggling what is currently occurring. I am no marketing guru but there surely must be a way that HRV can "piggy back" off the juggernaut of the Melbourne Spring Carnival and the tens of thousands who attend those meetings.
If we look at the past 3 weeks (including this week) which has seen the Caulfield Guineas, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate days, Harness Racing Victoria have only run 10 races with prizemoney greater than $8000 with the majority of races only being worth $5000. Of those 10 races, 2 were for the FFA trotters which leaves 8 races over a 3 week period for pacers above what Tasmanian country front horses race for every week. Nothing short of disgraceful. Here is a list of the 8 races:
FFA - Geelong Bullet
Mares FFA
M2-M4
M1
M0
FFA Stand - Kilmore Cup
FFA Sprint
M0
Compare that to WA where they have run 28 races in the same time frame with minimum prizemoney of $16,000 per race (including 2 x $35,000 races). Just to repeat that, over the past 3 weeks Victoria has run 8 races for pacers worth more than $8000 whilst WA have run 28 worth at least $16,000. No wonder every half decent M2 or better horse is scuttling over the Nullarbor post haste
Every meeting that goes by where Victorian Harness Racing is more focused on turnover at the expense of the quality of racing is simply another nail in the coffin of the future of the industry
The fields for this Friday night are nothing short of an embarrassment to be frank and this at a time when thousands of punters will be in Melbourne for the Cox Plate and no doubt a few would be interested in a flutter on the Friday night prior to their big day out at the Valley. Sounds like an ideal opportunity right? Obviously HRV don't think so as they have programmed a Stawell meeting worth $5000 every race with a ton of drivers competing who should never be allowed to drive on a Friday night in front of the biggest audience Harness Racing gets.
This "death by a thousand meetings" currently being implemented by HRV is painful to watch
If we look at the past 3 weeks (including this week) which has seen the Caulfield Guineas, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate days, Harness Racing Victoria have only run 10 races with prizemoney greater than $8000 with the majority of races only being worth $5000. Of those 10 races, 2 were for the FFA trotters which leaves 8 races over a 3 week period for pacers above what Tasmanian country front horses race for every week. Nothing short of disgraceful. Here is a list of the 8 races:
FFA - Geelong Bullet
Mares FFA
M2-M4
M1
M0
FFA Stand - Kilmore Cup
FFA Sprint
M0
Compare that to WA where they have run 28 races in the same time frame with minimum prizemoney of $16,000 per race (including 2 x $35,000 races). Just to repeat that, over the past 3 weeks Victoria has run 8 races for pacers worth more than $8000 whilst WA have run 28 worth at least $16,000. No wonder every half decent M2 or better horse is scuttling over the Nullarbor post haste
Every meeting that goes by where Victorian Harness Racing is more focused on turnover at the expense of the quality of racing is simply another nail in the coffin of the future of the industry
The fields for this Friday night are nothing short of an embarrassment to be frank and this at a time when thousands of punters will be in Melbourne for the Cox Plate and no doubt a few would be interested in a flutter on the Friday night prior to their big day out at the Valley. Sounds like an ideal opportunity right? Obviously HRV don't think so as they have programmed a Stawell meeting worth $5000 every race with a ton of drivers competing who should never be allowed to drive on a Friday night in front of the biggest audience Harness Racing gets.
This "death by a thousand meetings" currently being implemented by HRV is painful to watch
Launceston Sunday - Early Market
Still have a couple of races to go, top selections in green writing for something different
Race 1
1 MONICAS NOTCH $11, going better than figure form suggests, keeps whacking away and good place prospect from this draw
2 WINDY WINGS $34 having first Tasmanian start and also first start for the Pullicino camp. Form is average to say the least being unplaced at past 25 runs but the stable have a history of improving horses so not prepared to discard completely
3 AAPENNON $1.50 had no luck but still won as he liked last time and this is easier if anything. Clear top pick
4 ROCKY CREEK $21 tends to save best form for the tight Devonport track but isn't totally hopeless although he does race best in front
5 STEELINGTON NZ $13 hasn't been disgraced in all Tassie runs so far and this is by far its easiest assignment, good EW prospect
6 BUNJIL BOY $101 form prior to spell was just average and won't find it easy from out here
7 AS YOU WISH $34 runs on well in his races and whilst he will need plenty of luck from this draw might sneak a place
8 CHASSYS BEST $101 another who saves best form for Devonport and from this gate almost faces mission impossible
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JANSZOON $17 wasn't too bad at first Tassie start and should enjoy a cosy pegs run here so a definite place prospect
10 LITTLE MISS AJAY $51 has some ability but does too much wrong to be considered a chance
11 SOPHIES PLEASURE $7 galloped out when resuming but held on okay late, at her best would be right in this so is the main danger to fav
Ratings 3/11/1/5/9/4/2?
Race 2
1 MELMAN $4 one paced type who races best when on the speed, draws to get every hope
2 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $26 didn't do much at first start but was trialling okay prior so may improve but would need to
3 RAMSAYS FURY $26 resuming and whilst has some ability place chances look best
4 OUR LAST KNIGHT $34 been competitive of late but won't find this any easier
5 JAGER BOMB NZ $11 disgraced himself first up when led and collapsed but did go okay last time making some ground out wide in a 28.6 closing split. Not the worst
6 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.0 going ultra well at the trials and the stable is on fire of late. Interesting to note that the horse he clearly beat at the trials (Packedtotherafters) ran an enormous race for 2nd at his debut a fortnight ago so have some type of form reference.
7 TOP PREMIER $26 sit/sprint type who will be giving the leaders a big start from this gate so place best
8 EL JAYS MODEENA $17 been pretty good at past couple and would be some hope from a decent barrier but still a place hope from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM $26 half sister to Shez Ryleymak who was okay at first start, should get a cheap run here and may run into the minor end of the exotics
10 ATTA JET $21 showed some promise early on but didn't quite live up to it, still a decent place hope though despite the 2nd row
11 INTHENICKOFTIME $17 much improved run last week but this is no easier so place best again
12 CLEG ON TIME $101 first up for a couple of years and was pretty plain at the trials
Ratings 6/1/5/8/11/2,7,9,10
Race 3
1 CYCLONE DYNASTY $13 one paced type who has some gatespeed so if led might give some cheek but his lack of high speed means he rarely wins
2 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $17 resuming and usually competitive but this is a pretty tough race, place only
3 WAIKOKO KING $101 hasn't won for 4 years and form prior to spell did nothing to enthuse
4 APACHE ALBA $51 went fairly at first run back from a year off but this is harder, no
5 CRASH CART $8 has plenty of ability but draw is some concern with a lack of gatespeed but still an EW prospect
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $13 disappointed last time but was going okay prior but from this draw against a tougher field is place only
7 RUBYS LIFE $13 good win last time (bless her heart) but was against far inferior opposition as was in against early season 3YOs. This is much tougher
8 SAAB QUALITY $3.8 form has tapered off lately but would love to see him fire out of the gate and race on the speed as would win clearly at best
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MATAI NIGEL NZ $8 pretty good run when resuming and should get a decent run through from here and if gets the breaks may surprise
10 BARKERS RUN $26 been starting at huge odds recently but did run okay last time and not the roughest
11 OUR KAIZAN NZ $3.5 did a power of mid race work and boxed on tenaciously last start, clearly the one to beat with a repeat of that
Ratings 11/8/9/5/1/6/7/2/10
Race 4
1 CANCELLARA
2 COMMANDER DATA
3 THE JOUSTER
4 BALENCIA
5 THABELA BRIOSO
6 DENVERS BOY
7 EL JAYS MAVERICK
8 THE INHIBITOR
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY
11 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ
Race 5
1 TOPNOTCH DAN $6 returns to Tasmania and has plenty of ability when right so watch any markets leads closely. Has plenty of speed drawn outside him as well
2 HARLEY FELLA $6 never runs a bad race but lacks a touch of high speed which can cost him but will be competitive as usual
3 WINGSOFANEAGLE $17 had his chance last week when led and walked but couldn't hang on in a weaker race. May be first to the pegs here but would need to hand up to be any hope
4 KING OF BLING $5 another with good gatespeed who races best with a sit, probably a shade better suited to the mile trip but only needs the right run and will be in the finish
5 SON OF JAM $21 disappointed since resuming but did break last time so can excuse that one. Need plenty of luck to figure though
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $6 started at double figure odds and ran unplaced in a weaker race last time but I thought his run was terrific coming from last out wide in a 57.6 last half to be beaten 2 metres. Might be the value runner
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $2.5 probably entitled to be shorter than $2.5 based on formlines but I have some reservations about the draw and wouldn't want to take anything less
8 BUBBAS A FAKE $11 erratic mare who races best when drawn to lead so whilst she has plenty of ability I prefer to wait until she is back in the draw
Ratings 7/6/1,2,4/8
Race 6
1 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE
2 KEPT CALM
3 CURRYNROSES
4 SANREOS
5 REMEMBERPREECE
6 KING ALBERT
7 MURPHYS ROCKET
8 TROJAN CALM NZ
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOADED TO RUN
10 MI MADEMOISELLE
Race 7
1 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $8 first up in the state and a big market watch as has performed well in the past when leading. Recent form just fair but keeping safe
2 DODGERMEMATE $15 resuming and has ability but can be erratic at times and need to do everything right to win this
3 KINGS A COACH $8 was pretty average during his stint with the Webster stable but would be competitive in this at best and did trial okay last week (rate 2.00.2, half 58.9, 2170m) so may improve on recent efforts
4 REDSIDE SHREK $15 another horse resuming who would be competitive at his top but may need a run or two
5 YUSHCHENKO LEIS $4.5 also resumes from a short let up but was a model of consistency last campaign and if anywhere near best will go close
6 CASTASPELL $51 better suited to stands nowadays
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $26 has ability when right but form has tapered right off lately so wait until he shows something
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $1.90 has been almost unbeatable in these mobile races as gets into them so well as an M5. Can also be driven in whatever manner it takes to win so is a clear top pick again
Ratings 8/5/1,3/2/4
Race 8
1 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) $26 manners have been letting him down at the start in recent stand races but doubt he has the speed to beat a few of these from the mobile
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $13 good winner of a stand 2 runs back, not as well served from the mobile but won't be far away
3 FORTY TWO GRAND ($5,000) $17 is usually thereabouts and whilst he doesn't win too often he rarely runs a bad one. One for exotics
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $26 one paced type better suited to stands
5 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $8 enigmatic type with plenty of ability when on song. Good win at big odds 2 starts back then blew the stand last time so definitely is in the mix
6 NIBEBO ($5,000) $34 was some support for him last time and whilst he wasn't too bad this is harder, no
7 ROCK AND RUN ($7,000) $6 first start for Pullicino stable and whilst form is woeful he does go well when right and also has tons of gatespeed. Watch for any market moves to determine his chances
8 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($10,000) $3.5 finally got himself in a truly run race last time and blew them away, will go back at start and need a true tempo again but is always competitive at this level
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ALBERT JONES ($10,000) $2.8 has a very good record in these mobile claimers and the draw is actually okay for him as should settle ahead of a couple. The one to beat
Ratings 9/8/7/5/2/3
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Redistribution of Prizemoney - Tassie have it right
I was a little undecided as to exactly where I stood in regards to TasRacing's decision to slash $230,000 in prizemoney from its feature racing calendar and redistribute it over more meetings during the season. The obvious answer is that it benefits the regular participants so its a clear choice but there is also a decent argument that you need to attract some quality interstate participants to race to give your product some legitimacy on a national level.
It was only whilst watching Globe Derby last Saturday that it really hit home to me that TasRacing have done the right thing. Harness Racing in South Australia is on life support currently and they ran a C2-C5 series for great prizemoney and all that happened was that a host of Victorian raiders crossed the border and pillaged most of it which also tends to happen with the majority of their feature races. Similar things have been happening in Tasmania for years and the legitimacy argument just doesn't stand up.
Last year for example, all of the following races (and prizemoney) were won by interstate raiders:
$125,000 Tasmania Cup - Bettor Strike (NZ)
$100,000 Australian Derby - Lanercost (QLD)
$50,000 George Johnson - Mendelico (VIC)
$50,000 City of Launceston Cup - Power Of Tara (VIC)
$20,000 Mother Of Pearl - Mendelico (VIC)
$20,000 City Of Devonport Quality - Im Mark Antony (VIC)
$20,000 Gold Label - Rowan Direct (VIC)
Taking this into account, the recent decision to restructure the prizemoney is the right one. Keeping the Tasmania Cup as a Group 1 was a priority though to maintain at least one flagship race and this has been done with it still being worth $100,000 this season.
The full story is available on the TasRacing site:
Prizemoney in Tasmania is already very comparable (if not better) to most other states and any further injection to the base rate can only be good for the long term sustainability of participants.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Meeting Summary - Hobart October 17
No real standout performances and most races were pretty tight finishes and also no really bad drives which was pleasing to see.
Blackbookers from meeting:
Its A Hoot - good tough run, will win shortly
Line The Pocket - had cheap run but still ran home very well. Still ODM but one to follow especially when gets back in the draw
Ramblin Cullen - no doubt should have won given the tempo. Hoof right on the till
Dieberdon - super win at first run back. Always had good speed and showed a lot of bottom to box on and win so might develop into a fair horse this time in
Flying Dubai - top effort at first run for new stable. If he draws the front soon get on
Driver Votes
G Hodges 3
Scott Ford 2
R Hillier 1
Will try to complete all races later
Blackbookers from meeting:
Its A Hoot - good tough run, will win shortly
Line The Pocket - had cheap run but still ran home very well. Still ODM but one to follow especially when gets back in the draw
Ramblin Cullen - no doubt should have won given the tempo. Hoof right on the till
Dieberdon - super win at first run back. Always had good speed and showed a lot of bottom to box on and win so might develop into a fair horse this time in
Flying Dubai - top effort at first run for new stable. If he draws the front soon get on
Driver Votes
G Hodges 3
Scott Ford 2
R Hillier 1
Will try to complete all races later
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Sunday Tips
Hobart - all races
R1#1 Bro Town
R2#2 Harley Fella
R3#4 Artifice
R4#7 Sky Tower
R5#3 Cullens Count
R6#8 Harbhajan
R7#1 Biggernbettermax
R8#1 Waterloo Bay
Best Bet
Sky Tower (should be around $3)
Best Value (pretty keen on these at reasonable odds)
Cullens Count - nominal fav now scratched so value is gone
Harbhajan
Few Suggested Trifectas
Race 1
1,2,7,9/1,2,7,8,9,10/1,2,7,8,9,10
$80 for 100%
Race 2
2,6/1,2,4,5,6,8/1,2,4,5,6,8
$80 for 200%
Race 6
3,8/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,12/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,12
$72 for 100%
Box 3,7,8 for $2 cost $12
Quaddie
3,4,5,7,8
3,5,10
3,8
1
$60 for 200%
5,7
3,5,10
3,8
1
$24 for 200%
5,7
3,5,10
3,8
4,8,10
$18 for 50%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1
1 BRO TOWN NZ $4.5 much better run when resuming, has the speed to lead here and go close with a repeat of first up performance
2 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $5 caught the eye when resuming at big odds when was held up and charged home when clear. Definite chance
3 TIME TO PRAY $34 struggling for form but this is best draw in ages so may improve
4 GIVEMEANOTHERNAME $34 resumes from a long break and is a 30 start maiden so prefer to watch
5 MIGHTY MYF $101 really struggling at the moment, No
6 JAGER BOMB NZ $17 had support when resuming and led but stopped as if it hit a brick wall, may do better driven cold but needs to lift
7 ITS A HOOT $5.5 very unlucky last time, draw does him no favours here but will be in the finish with any luck
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THIRTYSIXTOES $8 honest mare who should get a cheap run from the draw. A must for exotics
9 KING OF JEWELS $4.2 appeared to have his chance last time and just missed but still beat most of his dangers in this home. Good chance
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $15 went okay at first start then broke at 2nd start, definitely not the worst
Ratings 1/2,7,9/8/10
Race 2
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $7.5 cheeky run last week when followed the pegs home, if they take a sit again here is a chance again (if they keep front might struggle)
2 HARLEY FELLA $3.5 appeared to have his chance when run down after leading but did run home 28.2 so wasn't too bad an effort in hindsight. Never runs a bad race and is versatile so hard to beat
3 FORTY TWO GRAND $15 never far away but seems to lack the zip to win, one for exotics
4 DUART CASTLE $8 resuming and is a funny horse in that grows a leg when leads and is pretty plain when he doesn't. Bit of speed inside here so prepared to risk but still some hope in case he gets over
5 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $8 beautifully driven to save every inch of ground to win last time, will probably need a similar drive here but is going okay
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $4 good run last time, draw makes things a tad tougher but must be respected
7 SON OF JAM $26 pretty ordinary last time when trailed leader, has ability when right but prepared to risk from this draw
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GRACIE HART $5 disappointed last time when never travelled, have to respect on previous form and would probably win this at her best
Ratings 2/6/8/1,4,5
Race 3
1 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $26 resumes, form was average last time in so prefer to watch
2 STRATEGIC MISS $11 has a bit of gatespeed and generally whacks away so has some chance
3 GUNBOWER JACK $67 really struggling, no hope
4 ARTIFICE $1.5 been disappointing but looks very well placed in this line up. Been a beaten short priced fav at past 3 starts but looks the top pick again as this is the easiest field she has met, whether you want to back her or not is another thing
5 TASPACEDOTCOM $34 not the worst and might sneak a place with some luck from draw
6 THE DETONATOR $3.5 draw is a bit of a worry but looks the only danger to the fav and with any luck will make a real race of it
7 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 hasn't been too bad at past couple, rough place hope
---------- Second Row ----------
8 REALLY IMATIGERESS $13 resuming and raced in fair fields prior to a break, definite watch
9 INTHENICKOFTIME $34 disappointed at past couple, minor place chance at very best
Ratings 4/6/2/8
Race 4
1 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $15 been disappointing at past couple after every hope in the run, could figure at best but not on current form
2 ALLA BREVE $13 galloped out when resuming but still didn't do a lot but may improve
3 SECRET RENDEZVOUS $11 would have been 100/1 in this race 2 weeks ago but based on last win when came from last to win in a 28.2 closing quarter he simply must be included despite stepping up in class as has a handicap advantage over his rivals
4 RONNIE RAT $11 honest stand start who looks better suited in this than past few, may surprise
5 ULOS $4 very good run last week when did plenty of work and looked the winner until being nabbed late. Go very close with a repeat performance
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $15 struggling for best form but starting to get in better at the handicaps so might improve
7 SKY TOWER $3 shade disappointing first up but wasn't driven to advantage and expect a much better run here. Should win at best
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $5 going as well as anything but handicap makes it a bit tougher this time
Ratings 7/5/8/4/3/field
Race 5
1 STEELINGTON NZ $9 ex kiwi whose 2 Tassie runs have been okay without being flash, still a place prospect from the draw
2 ULTIMATE HEIR $34 gets Gareth but thats about the only positive I can find based on past couple
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ $3 has gone super at past 2 when should have finished considerably closer both times, sat outside Iden Justasmyrk 2 runs back and boxed on bravely and then was gassed in front last time. If he leads will take plenty of running down
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $15 one of those horses who is going a lot better than form suggests and will get that perfect run one day and surprise, a must for exotics
5 DIEBERDON $3.5 resuming from a spell and looked very promising as an early 3YO prior to form tapering off. Did tend to race best driven cold so draw is a worry but watch the market very closely
6 BERTILS ROCKET $21 sit/sprint type who is always a chance with the right sort of run but might struggle from this gate over this trip
7 NIGHT IN VEGAS scr would be right in the mix from a decent gate but going to find it extremely tough from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 CANCELLARA $15 not at his top but does follow speed okay and if the breaks come his way won't be far away
9 MICKEY DELAHEY $26 hasn't been finishing his races off of late and want to see him produce before including him
10 FLYING DUBAI $8 resuming for new stable and did trial okay but tends to race best from the front row but watch for any confidence in betting
11 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $3.2 disappointing last time when had the race won and stopped but still the one to beat in this, can do work to get into the race but the 2nd row over this trip is a concern
12 THE BULLIONAIRE $21 opportunist type who will have to do it too tough from here
Ratings 3/11/5/10/1,4,8
Race 6
1 LISKENS GIFT $13 hasn't been going too badly from average draws of late and gets Gareth here which is a plus, has some gatespeed but there is also plenty of speed outside him but if held up might surprise
2 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling to find best and prefer others
3 LITTLE ELF $3.8 very good run last week when worked in quick lead time and held on well at the finish. Led and won a mile race recently so if got to the front would be the one to beat
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER $17 looked quite average last time after a couple of good runs early on for new stable, still not prepared to dismiss completely
5 JANSZOON $8 ex SA horse who is very hard to assess, has decent numerical form but races have been run in pretty average times so question marks over form but still a market watch
6 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $13 honest type resuming, does tend to race best from in front though so find it hard from here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $7 had her chance last time but was in a much harder race, draw is diabolical for her though as if goes back there will be a ton of slow ones in front of her and over the mile you just can't win if that happens
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARBHAJAN $3.8 is low flying this horse but without any luck, once again the draw hurts but he is a sit sprint type anyway and I think its a simple case of he wins if he gets some luck and price is going to be okay
9 CHANCEABET $34 past couple have been way below best and whilst he would be competitive at best he needs to improve panels
10 BORNFIRST $101 totally outclassed
11 EARL HICKEY $101 find this too hard
12 BIDE YOUR TIME $15 been good since resuming from a long spell, draw makes it extremely tough but still a must for exotics
Ratings 8/3/7/5/1/6,12/4
Race 7
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $1.5 surprisingly beaten 2 runs back at long odds on against a similar field but bounced back with a top win against harder than this last time. Tends to race lazily but should lead and win
2 MOLLIE FINN $26 resumes and has ability at best but this is tough first up
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI $21 had every hope last week and found a couple too good, never runs a bad race though and his early speed may be some concern to the fav
4 MURPHYS ROCKET $13 good form since coming to Tassie and has shown he can work in his races. Going to have to sit outside a good one here though
5 KEPT CALM $26 wasn't a bad run when resuming but still find this tough
6 MISTER GALLENTI $21 has ability but the draw really hinders his chances
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 hasn't won for a long time and can't see that changing here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PENNYS DRAGON $21 hasn't been going as well as she can but draws to get the type of run she likes so good exotics chance
9 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 very well driven to place last time when saved every inch of ground, worth noting that beat the 3rd horse by 10 metres that day but highly unlikely to get such a dream run again
10 BAYFIELD HIGH $17 lot better run than it looked last time, actually beat the fav from the same draw 2 runs back at huge odds so might be the blowout again
Ratings 1/10/4/3,5,6,8,9
Race 8
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $2.2 has a great record in these races, should lead once again and be the one to beat
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11 form is woeful on paper but resuming from a short break so keeping relatively safe
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $11 honest type who whacks away all day, might find a couple too slick late but won't shirk its task
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $4.5 well deserved win last week when had all the breaks but still won well in similar field so is obviously a chance again
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $17 form has tapered right off so prefer to wait until shows something
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5 going well and small field suits but with its sit/sprint style a lack of tempo may be the biggest concern
Ratings 1/6/4/3/2/5
R1#1 Bro Town
R2#2 Harley Fella
R3#4 Artifice
R4#7 Sky Tower
R5#3 Cullens Count
R6#8 Harbhajan
R7#1 Biggernbettermax
R8#1 Waterloo Bay
Best Bet
Sky Tower (should be around $3)
Best Value (pretty keen on these at reasonable odds)
Cullens Count - nominal fav now scratched so value is gone
Harbhajan
Few Suggested Trifectas
Race 1
1,2,7,9/1,2,7,8,9,10/1,2,7,8,9,10
$80 for 100%
Race 2
2,6/1,2,4,5,6,8/1,2,4,5,6,8
$80 for 200%
Race 6
3,8/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,12/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,12
$72 for 100%
Box 3,7,8 for $2 cost $12
Quaddie
3,4,5,7,8
3,5,10
3,8
1
$60 for 200%
5,7
3,5,10
3,8
1
$24 for 200%
5,7
3,5,10
3,8
4,8,10
$18 for 50%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1
1 BRO TOWN NZ $4.5 much better run when resuming, has the speed to lead here and go close with a repeat of first up performance
2 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $5 caught the eye when resuming at big odds when was held up and charged home when clear. Definite chance
3 TIME TO PRAY $34 struggling for form but this is best draw in ages so may improve
4 GIVEMEANOTHERNAME $34 resumes from a long break and is a 30 start maiden so prefer to watch
5 MIGHTY MYF $101 really struggling at the moment, No
6 JAGER BOMB NZ $17 had support when resuming and led but stopped as if it hit a brick wall, may do better driven cold but needs to lift
7 ITS A HOOT $5.5 very unlucky last time, draw does him no favours here but will be in the finish with any luck
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THIRTYSIXTOES $8 honest mare who should get a cheap run from the draw. A must for exotics
9 KING OF JEWELS $4.2 appeared to have his chance last time and just missed but still beat most of his dangers in this home. Good chance
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $15 went okay at first start then broke at 2nd start, definitely not the worst
Ratings 1/2,7,9/8/10
Race 2
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $7.5 cheeky run last week when followed the pegs home, if they take a sit again here is a chance again (if they keep front might struggle)
2 HARLEY FELLA $3.5 appeared to have his chance when run down after leading but did run home 28.2 so wasn't too bad an effort in hindsight. Never runs a bad race and is versatile so hard to beat
3 FORTY TWO GRAND $15 never far away but seems to lack the zip to win, one for exotics
5 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $8 beautifully driven to save every inch of ground to win last time, will probably need a similar drive here but is going okay
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $4 good run last time, draw makes things a tad tougher but must be respected
7 SON OF JAM $26 pretty ordinary last time when trailed leader, has ability when right but prepared to risk from this draw
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GRACIE HART $5 disappointed last time when never travelled, have to respect on previous form and would probably win this at her best
Ratings 2/6/8/1,4,5
Race 3
1 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $26 resumes, form was average last time in so prefer to watch
2 STRATEGIC MISS $11 has a bit of gatespeed and generally whacks away so has some chance
3 GUNBOWER JACK $67 really struggling, no hope
4 ARTIFICE $1.5 been disappointing but looks very well placed in this line up. Been a beaten short priced fav at past 3 starts but looks the top pick again as this is the easiest field she has met, whether you want to back her or not is another thing
5 TASPACEDOTCOM $34 not the worst and might sneak a place with some luck from draw
6 THE DETONATOR $3.5 draw is a bit of a worry but looks the only danger to the fav and with any luck will make a real race of it
7 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 hasn't been too bad at past couple, rough place hope
---------- Second Row ----------
8 REALLY IMATIGERESS $13 resuming and raced in fair fields prior to a break, definite watch
9 INTHENICKOFTIME $34 disappointed at past couple, minor place chance at very best
Ratings 4/6/2/8
Race 4
1 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $15 been disappointing at past couple after every hope in the run, could figure at best but not on current form
2 ALLA BREVE $13 galloped out when resuming but still didn't do a lot but may improve
3 SECRET RENDEZVOUS $11 would have been 100/1 in this race 2 weeks ago but based on last win when came from last to win in a 28.2 closing quarter he simply must be included despite stepping up in class as has a handicap advantage over his rivals
4 RONNIE RAT $11 honest stand start who looks better suited in this than past few, may surprise
5 ULOS $4 very good run last week when did plenty of work and looked the winner until being nabbed late. Go very close with a repeat performance
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $15 struggling for best form but starting to get in better at the handicaps so might improve
7 SKY TOWER $3 shade disappointing first up but wasn't driven to advantage and expect a much better run here. Should win at best
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $5 going as well as anything but handicap makes it a bit tougher this time
Ratings 7/5/8/4/3/field
Race 5
1 STEELINGTON NZ $9 ex kiwi whose 2 Tassie runs have been okay without being flash, still a place prospect from the draw
2 ULTIMATE HEIR $34 gets Gareth but thats about the only positive I can find based on past couple
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ $3 has gone super at past 2 when should have finished considerably closer both times, sat outside Iden Justasmyrk 2 runs back and boxed on bravely and then was gassed in front last time. If he leads will take plenty of running down
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $15 one of those horses who is going a lot better than form suggests and will get that perfect run one day and surprise, a must for exotics
5 DIEBERDON $3.5 resuming from a spell and looked very promising as an early 3YO prior to form tapering off. Did tend to race best driven cold so draw is a worry but watch the market very closely
6 BERTILS ROCKET $21 sit/sprint type who is always a chance with the right sort of run but might struggle from this gate over this trip
---------- Second Row ----------
8 CANCELLARA $15 not at his top but does follow speed okay and if the breaks come his way won't be far away
9 MICKEY DELAHEY $26 hasn't been finishing his races off of late and want to see him produce before including him
10 FLYING DUBAI $8 resuming for new stable and did trial okay but tends to race best from the front row but watch for any confidence in betting
12 THE BULLIONAIRE $21 opportunist type who will have to do it too tough from here
Ratings 3/11/5/10/1,4,8
Race 6
1 LISKENS GIFT $13 hasn't been going too badly from average draws of late and gets Gareth here which is a plus, has some gatespeed but there is also plenty of speed outside him but if held up might surprise
2 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling to find best and prefer others
3 LITTLE ELF $3.8 very good run last week when worked in quick lead time and held on well at the finish. Led and won a mile race recently so if got to the front would be the one to beat
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER $17 looked quite average last time after a couple of good runs early on for new stable, still not prepared to dismiss completely
5 JANSZOON $8 ex SA horse who is very hard to assess, has decent numerical form but races have been run in pretty average times so question marks over form but still a market watch
6 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $13 honest type resuming, does tend to race best from in front though so find it hard from here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $7 had her chance last time but was in a much harder race, draw is diabolical for her though as if goes back there will be a ton of slow ones in front of her and over the mile you just can't win if that happens
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARBHAJAN $3.8 is low flying this horse but without any luck, once again the draw hurts but he is a sit sprint type anyway and I think its a simple case of he wins if he gets some luck and price is going to be okay
9 CHANCEABET $34 past couple have been way below best and whilst he would be competitive at best he needs to improve panels
10 BORNFIRST $101 totally outclassed
11 EARL HICKEY $101 find this too hard
12 BIDE YOUR TIME $15 been good since resuming from a long spell, draw makes it extremely tough but still a must for exotics
Ratings 8/3/7/5/1/6,12/4
Race 7
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $1.5 surprisingly beaten 2 runs back at long odds on against a similar field but bounced back with a top win against harder than this last time. Tends to race lazily but should lead and win
2 MOLLIE FINN $26 resumes and has ability at best but this is tough first up
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI $21 had every hope last week and found a couple too good, never runs a bad race though and his early speed may be some concern to the fav
4 MURPHYS ROCKET $13 good form since coming to Tassie and has shown he can work in his races. Going to have to sit outside a good one here though
5 KEPT CALM $26 wasn't a bad run when resuming but still find this tough
6 MISTER GALLENTI $21 has ability but the draw really hinders his chances
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 hasn't won for a long time and can't see that changing here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PENNYS DRAGON $21 hasn't been going as well as she can but draws to get the type of run she likes so good exotics chance
9 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 very well driven to place last time when saved every inch of ground, worth noting that beat the 3rd horse by 10 metres that day but highly unlikely to get such a dream run again
10 BAYFIELD HIGH $17 lot better run than it looked last time, actually beat the fav from the same draw 2 runs back at huge odds so might be the blowout again
Ratings 1/10/4/3,5,6,8,9
Race 8
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $2.2 has a great record in these races, should lead once again and be the one to beat
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11 form is woeful on paper but resuming from a short break so keeping relatively safe
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $11 honest type who whacks away all day, might find a couple too slick late but won't shirk its task
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $4.5 well deserved win last week when had all the breaks but still won well in similar field so is obviously a chance again
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $17 form has tapered right off so prefer to wait until shows something
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5 going well and small field suits but with its sit/sprint style a lack of tempo may be the biggest concern
Ratings 1/6/4/3/2/5
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Track Bias in Harness Racing - makes it impossible
It doesn't happen too often in Harness Racing but when the inside of a trotting track becomes like quicksand it becomes a nightmare for punters. Unlike gallops where if the inside is off, the leader can come about 10 off the rail around the turn but this just isn't feasible in Harness Racing. Would be interesting to hear what stewards or punters would say if the driver on the leader came 7-8 wide round the turn and got run down!
There was a distinct anti-fence bias tonight at Melton though and in fairness, no blame can be apportioned to the track as it usually drains very well but there was a deluge overnight in Melbourne. It did occur when the track initially opened with similar weather resulting in the inside becoming like quicksand but since then its been good.
In 8 races this evening, only 1 leader ran a place and it actually won as an odds on favourite (Onedin Hustler) but you could physically see him bogging down in the straight. Its also worth noting that the others who trailed the fence in that race ran 7th, 9th, 10th and 11th so he probably should have won by 20 metres instead of 2 metres given the bias. No leader's back horse ran a place all night either.
A lot of the leaders were also well fancied and got beaten a long way in most instances. All leaders for the night were:
Albert Terrill, beaten 92 metres, started $10
Lucknpower, beaten 11 metres, started $43
Kissmecatie, beaten 32 metres, started $6.40
Just Callme Cullen, beaten 6 metres, started $2.90
Jasville, beaten 15 metres, started $15
Onedin Hustler, 1st, started $1.80
I Didn't Do It, beaten 35 metres, started $4.40
Catch Your Breath, beaten 21 metres, started $2.50
Will pay to tread very carefully when analysing the form from the meeting as the ones out wide will have inflated form as opposed to those on the inside who can almost be excused the run.
A lot of participants may say its karma as the track has almost become a bit of a one lane highway on the fence but its a nightmare for punters as you need to try and pick which horse is going to have the 3 wide trail and thats almost impossible to pick
There was a distinct anti-fence bias tonight at Melton though and in fairness, no blame can be apportioned to the track as it usually drains very well but there was a deluge overnight in Melbourne. It did occur when the track initially opened with similar weather resulting in the inside becoming like quicksand but since then its been good.
In 8 races this evening, only 1 leader ran a place and it actually won as an odds on favourite (Onedin Hustler) but you could physically see him bogging down in the straight. Its also worth noting that the others who trailed the fence in that race ran 7th, 9th, 10th and 11th so he probably should have won by 20 metres instead of 2 metres given the bias. No leader's back horse ran a place all night either.
A lot of the leaders were also well fancied and got beaten a long way in most instances. All leaders for the night were:
Albert Terrill, beaten 92 metres, started $10
Lucknpower, beaten 11 metres, started $43
Kissmecatie, beaten 32 metres, started $6.40
Just Callme Cullen, beaten 6 metres, started $2.90
Jasville, beaten 15 metres, started $15
Onedin Hustler, 1st, started $1.80
I Didn't Do It, beaten 35 metres, started $4.40
Catch Your Breath, beaten 21 metres, started $2.50
Will pay to tread very carefully when analysing the form from the meeting as the ones out wide will have inflated form as opposed to those on the inside who can almost be excused the run.
A lot of participants may say its karma as the track has almost become a bit of a one lane highway on the fence but its a nightmare for punters as you need to try and pick which horse is going to have the 3 wide trail and thats almost impossible to pick
Friday, October 15, 2010
Some very good racing this weekend - finally!!
After the absolute garbage dished up last weekend its pleasing to see some races to get excited about this weekend. Might touch on last week first of all though and what the heck were Victoria thinking putting on $5000 country front races on both Friday and Saturday nights and then racing for $2000 Sunday night. Punters across the country expect to see a premier meeting at Melton on a Friday night but yet they were dished up races worth $5K at the so called "home of harness racing".
Surely things aren't going that badly in Victoria??? Then again, actually maybe they are as to put things into a bit of perspective, country front races in Tasmania of all places are worth $7500.
It all comes down to the glut of races which just dilutes the wealth and the quality, they have far too many races which is obvious to anybody and it all comes down to their affiliation with TabCorp in my opinion who want them to provide a product and not worry about the quality as all they care about is turnover and not building the image. They need to remember that just because you build a quality facility like Melton, it doesn't mean you will automatically get increased support unless you provide a certain quality. I can't recall Fitzroy packing too many into the MCG during their history and sadly Harness Racing may well go the same way as Fitzroy unless this gets addressed.
Don't worry, at the end of the financial year they will trot out something about how they provide the greatest return to owners with with total prizemoney over the year but they are kidding themselves if they believe that. It costs an average of $1800 per month to train a horse and if you race for $3300 first prizemoney like Friday night then its little wonder many turn to some "creative ways" to earn a living from the caper. Read into the use of the word "creative" in any manner you wish.
On a more positive note, this week has some top notch racing led by the Be Good Johnny Sprint at Albion Park on Saturday night featuring Blacks A Fake, Mr Feelgood, Washakie, Lonestar Legend, Karloo Mick and the old boy himself in Be Good Johnny. Just a cracker of a race. Even Melton steps up to the plate this Friday with the Group 3 Trotters Cup featuring Sundons Gift taking on some very handy ones and a good mares race headlined by Make Mine Cullen. There is also a very interesting meeting at Globe Derby on Saturday night featuring some real up and comers like Renaissance Man and Roman Ruler, also an interesting kiwi having first start for the Tonkin stable in Our Mick Ison who has raced against some very good ones back in NZ.
The reason I fell in love with Harness Racing was because races like these were regular occurrences but sadly they are few and far between nowadays. We need more FFA races programmed to enable people to watch horses they have an affiliation with, WA have it right with Has The Answers now being a crowd favourite after racing 48 times (from memory) last season despite having a high metro assessment at the start of the season. I sincerely doubt that Victoria or NSW would run 48 races combined that he would have been eligible to race in and that is just absurd.
Surely things aren't going that badly in Victoria??? Then again, actually maybe they are as to put things into a bit of perspective, country front races in Tasmania of all places are worth $7500.
It all comes down to the glut of races which just dilutes the wealth and the quality, they have far too many races which is obvious to anybody and it all comes down to their affiliation with TabCorp in my opinion who want them to provide a product and not worry about the quality as all they care about is turnover and not building the image. They need to remember that just because you build a quality facility like Melton, it doesn't mean you will automatically get increased support unless you provide a certain quality. I can't recall Fitzroy packing too many into the MCG during their history and sadly Harness Racing may well go the same way as Fitzroy unless this gets addressed.
Don't worry, at the end of the financial year they will trot out something about how they provide the greatest return to owners with with total prizemoney over the year but they are kidding themselves if they believe that. It costs an average of $1800 per month to train a horse and if you race for $3300 first prizemoney like Friday night then its little wonder many turn to some "creative ways" to earn a living from the caper. Read into the use of the word "creative" in any manner you wish.
On a more positive note, this week has some top notch racing led by the Be Good Johnny Sprint at Albion Park on Saturday night featuring Blacks A Fake, Mr Feelgood, Washakie, Lonestar Legend, Karloo Mick and the old boy himself in Be Good Johnny. Just a cracker of a race. Even Melton steps up to the plate this Friday with the Group 3 Trotters Cup featuring Sundons Gift taking on some very handy ones and a good mares race headlined by Make Mine Cullen. There is also a very interesting meeting at Globe Derby on Saturday night featuring some real up and comers like Renaissance Man and Roman Ruler, also an interesting kiwi having first start for the Tonkin stable in Our Mick Ison who has raced against some very good ones back in NZ.
The reason I fell in love with Harness Racing was because races like these were regular occurrences but sadly they are few and far between nowadays. We need more FFA races programmed to enable people to watch horses they have an affiliation with, WA have it right with Has The Answers now being a crowd favourite after racing 48 times (from memory) last season despite having a high metro assessment at the start of the season. I sincerely doubt that Victoria or NSW would run 48 races combined that he would have been eligible to race in and that is just absurd.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Hobart Preview - Sunday October 17
Still got a couple of races to complete
Race 1
1 BRO TOWN NZ $3.5 much better run when resuming, has the speed to lead here and go close with a repeat of first up performance
2 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $6 caught the eye when resuming at big odds when was held up and charged home when clear. Definite chance
3 TIME TO PRAY $34 struggling for form but this is best draw in ages so may improve
4 GIVEMEANOTHERNAME $34 resumes from a long break and is a 30 start maiden so prefer to watch
5 MIGHTY MYF $101 really struggling at the moment, No
6 JAGER BOMB NZ $17 had support when resuming and led but stopped as if it hit a brick wall, may do better driven cold but needs to lift
7 ITS A HOOT $6 very unlucky last time, draw does him no favours here but will be in the finish with any luck
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THIRTYSIXTOES $8 honest mare who should get a cheap run from the draw. A must for exotics
9 KING OF JEWELS $4.2 appeared to have his chance last time and just missed but still beat most of his dangers in this home. Good chance
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $15 went okay at first start then broke at 2nd start, definitely not the worst
Ratings 1/9/7/2/8/10
Race 2
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $8 cheeky run last week when followed the pegs home, if they take a sit again here is a chance again (if they keep front might struggle)
2 HARLEY FELLA $3.8 appeared to have his chance when run down after leading but did run home 28.2 so wasn't too bad an effort in hindsight. Never runs a bad race and is versatile so hard to beat
3 FORTY TWO GRAND $15 never far away but seems to lack the zip to win, one for exotics
4 DUART CASTLE $8 resuming and is a funny horse in that grows a leg when leads and is pretty plain when he doesn't. Bit of speed inside here so prepared to risk but still some hope in case he gets over
5 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $8 beautifully driven to save every inch of ground to win last time, will probably need a similar drive here but is going okay
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $4.5 good run last time, draw makes things a tad tougher but must be respected
7 SON OF JAM $26 pretty ordinary last time when trailed leader, has ability when right but prepared to risk from this draw
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GRACIE HART $5 disappointed last time when never travelled, have to respect on previous form and would probably win this at her best
Ratings 2/6/8/1,4,5
Race 3
1 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $26 resumes, form was average last time in so prefer to watch
2 STRATEGIC MISS $11 has a bit of gatespeed and generally whacks away so has some chance
3 GUNBOWER JACK $67 really struggling, no hope
4 ARTIFICE $1.5 been disappointing but looks very well placed in this line up. Been a beaten short priced fav at past 3 starts but looks the top pick again as this is the easiest field she has met, whether you want to back her or not is another thing
5 TASPACEDOTCOM $34 not the worst and might sneak a place with some luck from draw
6 THE DETONATOR $3.5 draw is a bit of a worry but looks the only danger to the fav and with any luck will make a real race of it
7 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 hasn't been too bad at past couple, rough place hope
---------- Second Row ----------
8 REALLY IMATIGERESS $13 resuming and raced in fair fields prior to a break, definite watch
9 INTHENICKOFTIME $34 disappointed at past couple, minor place chance at very best
Ratings 4/6/2/8
Race 4
1 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $15 been disappointing at past couple after every hope in the run, could figure at best but not on current form
2 ALLA BREVE $13 galloped out when resuming but still didn't do a lot but may improve
3 SECRET RENDEZVOUS $11 would have been 100/1 in this race 2 weeks ago but based on last win when came from last to win in a 28.2 closing quarter he simply must be included despite stepping up in class as has a handicap advantage over his rivals
4 RONNIE RAT $11 honest stand start who looks better suited in this than past few, may surprise
5 ULOS $4 very good run last week when did plenty of work and looked the winner until being nabbed late. Go very close with a repeat performance
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $15 struggling for best form but starting to get in better at the handicaps so might improve
7 SKY TOWER $3 shade disappointing first up but wasn't driven to advantage and expect a much better run here. Should win at best
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $5 going as well as anything but handicap makes it a bit tougher this time
Ratings 7/5/8/4/3/field
Race 5
1 STEELINGTON NZ $17 ex kiwi whose 2 Tassie runs have been okay without being flash, still a place prospect from the draw
2 ULTIMATE HEIR $51 gets Gareth but thats about the only positive I can find based on past couple
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ $3.8 has gone super at past 2 when should have finished considerably closer both times, sat outside Iden Justasmyrk 2 runs back and boxed on bravely and then was gassed in front last time. If he leads will take plenty of running down
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $17 one of those horses who is going a lot better than form suggests and will get that perfect run one day and surprise, a must for exotics
5 DIEBERDON $6 resuming from a spell and looked very promising as an early 3YO prior to form tapering off. Did tend to race best driven cold so draw is a worry but watch the market very closely
6 BERTILS ROCKET $34 sit/sprint type who is always a chance with the right sort of run but might struggle from this gate over this trip
7 NIGHT IN VEGAS scr would be right in the mix from a decent gate but going to find it extremely tough from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 CANCELLARA $17 not at his top but does follow speed okay and if the breaks come his way won't be far away
9 MICKEY DELAHEY $34 hasn't been finishing his races off of late and want to see him produce before including him
10 FLYING DUBAI $13 resuming and did trial okay but tends to race best from the front row so prefer for exotics but watch for any confidence in betting
11 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $3.2 disappointing last time when had the race won and stopped but still the one to beat in this, can do work to get into the race but the 2nd row over this trip is a concern
12 THE BULLIONAIRE $34 opportunist type who will have to do it too tough from here
Ratings 3/11/5/10/1,4,8
Race 6
1 LISKENS GIFT $13 hasn't been going too badly from average draws of late and gets Gareth here which is a plus, has some gatespeed but there is also plenty of speed outside him but if held up might surprise
2 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling to find best and prefer others
3 LITTLE ELF $3.8 very good run last week when worked in quick lead time and held on well at the finish. Led and won a mile race recently so if got to the front would be the one to beat
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER $13 looked quite average last time after a couple of good runs early on for new stable, still not prepared to dismiss completely
5 JANSZOON $7 ex SA horse who is very hard to assess, has decent numerical form but races have been run in pretty average times so question marks over form but still a market watch
6 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $13 honest type resuming, does tend to race best from in front though so find it hard from here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $7 had her chance last time but was in a much harder race, draw is diabolical for her though as if goes back there will be a ton of slow ones in front of her and over the mile you just can't win if that happens
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARBHAJAN $3.8 is low flying this horse but without any luck, once again the draw hurts but he is a sit sprint type anyway and I think its a simple case of he wins if he gets some luck and price is going to be okay
9 CHANCEABET $34 past couple have been way below best and whilst he would be competitive at best he needs to improve panels
10 BORNFIRST $101 totally outclassed
11 EARL HICKEY $101 find this too hard
12 BIDE YOUR TIME $101 no hope from this gate
Ratings 8/3/7/5/1/6
Race 7
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $1.5 surprisingly beaten 2 runs back at long odds on against a similar field but bounced back with a top win against harder than this last time. Tends to race lazily but should lead and win
2 MOLLIE FINN $26 resumes and has ability at best but this is tough first up
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI $21 had every hope last week and found a couple too good, never runs a bad race though and his early speed may be some concern to the fav
4 MURPHYS ROCKET $13 good form since coming to Tassie and has shown he can work in his races. Going to have to sit outside a good one here though
5 KEPT CALM $26 wasn't a bad run when resuming but still find this tough
6 MISTER GALLENTI $21 has ability but the draw really hinders his chances
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 hasn't won for a long time and can't see that changing here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PENNYS DRAGON $21 hasn't been going as well as she can but draws to get the type of run she likes so good exotics chance
9 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 very well driven to place last time when saved every inch of ground, worth noting that beat the 3rd horse by 10 metres that day but highly unlikely to get such a dream run again
10 BAYFIELD HIGH $17 lot better run than it looked last time, actually beat the fav from the same draw 2 runs back at huge odds so might be the blowout again
Ratings 1/10/4/3,5,6,8,9
Race 8
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $2.2 has a great record in these races, should lead once again and be the one to beat
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11 form is woeful on paper but resuming from a short break so keeping relatively safe
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $11 honest type who whacks away all day, might find a couple too slick late but won't shirk its task
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $4.5 well deserved win last week when had all the breaks but still won well in similar field so is obviously a chance again
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $17 form has tapered right off so prefer to wait until shows something
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5 going well and small field suits but with its sit/sprint style a lack of tempo may be the biggest concern
Ratings 1/6/4/3/2/5
Race 1
1 BRO TOWN NZ $3.5 much better run when resuming, has the speed to lead here and go close with a repeat of first up performance
2 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $6 caught the eye when resuming at big odds when was held up and charged home when clear. Definite chance
3 TIME TO PRAY $34 struggling for form but this is best draw in ages so may improve
4 GIVEMEANOTHERNAME $34 resumes from a long break and is a 30 start maiden so prefer to watch
5 MIGHTY MYF $101 really struggling at the moment, No
6 JAGER BOMB NZ $17 had support when resuming and led but stopped as if it hit a brick wall, may do better driven cold but needs to lift
7 ITS A HOOT $6 very unlucky last time, draw does him no favours here but will be in the finish with any luck
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THIRTYSIXTOES $8 honest mare who should get a cheap run from the draw. A must for exotics
9 KING OF JEWELS $4.2 appeared to have his chance last time and just missed but still beat most of his dangers in this home. Good chance
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $15 went okay at first start then broke at 2nd start, definitely not the worst
Ratings 1/9/7/2/8/10
Race 2
1 WINGSOFANEAGLE $8 cheeky run last week when followed the pegs home, if they take a sit again here is a chance again (if they keep front might struggle)
2 HARLEY FELLA $3.8 appeared to have his chance when run down after leading but did run home 28.2 so wasn't too bad an effort in hindsight. Never runs a bad race and is versatile so hard to beat
3 FORTY TWO GRAND $15 never far away but seems to lack the zip to win, one for exotics
4 DUART CASTLE $8 resuming and is a funny horse in that grows a leg when leads and is pretty plain when he doesn't. Bit of speed inside here so prepared to risk but still some hope in case he gets over
5 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $8 beautifully driven to save every inch of ground to win last time, will probably need a similar drive here but is going okay
6 RAMBLIN CULLEN $4.5 good run last time, draw makes things a tad tougher but must be respected
7 SON OF JAM $26 pretty ordinary last time when trailed leader, has ability when right but prepared to risk from this draw
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GRACIE HART $5 disappointed last time when never travelled, have to respect on previous form and would probably win this at her best
Ratings 2/6/8/1,4,5
Race 3
1 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $26 resumes, form was average last time in so prefer to watch
2 STRATEGIC MISS $11 has a bit of gatespeed and generally whacks away so has some chance
3 GUNBOWER JACK $67 really struggling, no hope
4 ARTIFICE $1.5 been disappointing but looks very well placed in this line up. Been a beaten short priced fav at past 3 starts but looks the top pick again as this is the easiest field she has met, whether you want to back her or not is another thing
5 TASPACEDOTCOM $34 not the worst and might sneak a place with some luck from draw
6 THE DETONATOR $3.5 draw is a bit of a worry but looks the only danger to the fav and with any luck will make a real race of it
7 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34 hasn't been too bad at past couple, rough place hope
---------- Second Row ----------
8 REALLY IMATIGERESS $13 resuming and raced in fair fields prior to a break, definite watch
9 INTHENICKOFTIME $34 disappointed at past couple, minor place chance at very best
Ratings 4/6/2/8
Race 4
1 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $15 been disappointing at past couple after every hope in the run, could figure at best but not on current form
2 ALLA BREVE $13 galloped out when resuming but still didn't do a lot but may improve
3 SECRET RENDEZVOUS $11 would have been 100/1 in this race 2 weeks ago but based on last win when came from last to win in a 28.2 closing quarter he simply must be included despite stepping up in class as has a handicap advantage over his rivals
4 RONNIE RAT $11 honest stand start who looks better suited in this than past few, may surprise
5 ULOS $4 very good run last week when did plenty of work and looked the winner until being nabbed late. Go very close with a repeat performance
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR $15 struggling for best form but starting to get in better at the handicaps so might improve
7 SKY TOWER $3 shade disappointing first up but wasn't driven to advantage and expect a much better run here. Should win at best
8 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $5 going as well as anything but handicap makes it a bit tougher this time
Ratings 7/5/8/4/3/field
Race 5
1 STEELINGTON NZ $17 ex kiwi whose 2 Tassie runs have been okay without being flash, still a place prospect from the draw
2 ULTIMATE HEIR $51 gets Gareth but thats about the only positive I can find based on past couple
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ $3.8 has gone super at past 2 when should have finished considerably closer both times, sat outside Iden Justasmyrk 2 runs back and boxed on bravely and then was gassed in front last time. If he leads will take plenty of running down
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $17 one of those horses who is going a lot better than form suggests and will get that perfect run one day and surprise, a must for exotics
5 DIEBERDON $6 resuming from a spell and looked very promising as an early 3YO prior to form tapering off. Did tend to race best driven cold so draw is a worry but watch the market very closely
6 BERTILS ROCKET $34 sit/sprint type who is always a chance with the right sort of run but might struggle from this gate over this trip
---------- Second Row ----------
8 CANCELLARA $17 not at his top but does follow speed okay and if the breaks come his way won't be far away
9 MICKEY DELAHEY $34 hasn't been finishing his races off of late and want to see him produce before including him
10 FLYING DUBAI $13 resuming and did trial okay but tends to race best from the front row so prefer for exotics but watch for any confidence in betting
11 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $3.2 disappointing last time when had the race won and stopped but still the one to beat in this, can do work to get into the race but the 2nd row over this trip is a concern
12 THE BULLIONAIRE $34 opportunist type who will have to do it too tough from here
Ratings 3/11/5/10/1,4,8
Race 6
1 LISKENS GIFT $13 hasn't been going too badly from average draws of late and gets Gareth here which is a plus, has some gatespeed but there is also plenty of speed outside him but if held up might surprise
2 RISENSHINE $51 really struggling to find best and prefer others
3 LITTLE ELF $3.8 very good run last week when worked in quick lead time and held on well at the finish. Led and won a mile race recently so if got to the front would be the one to beat
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER $13 looked quite average last time after a couple of good runs early on for new stable, still not prepared to dismiss completely
5 JANSZOON $7 ex SA horse who is very hard to assess, has decent numerical form but races have been run in pretty average times so question marks over form but still a market watch
6 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $13 honest type resuming, does tend to race best from in front though so find it hard from here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $7 had her chance last time but was in a much harder race, draw is diabolical for her though as if goes back there will be a ton of slow ones in front of her and over the mile you just can't win if that happens
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARBHAJAN $3.8 is low flying this horse but without any luck, once again the draw hurts but he is a sit sprint type anyway and I think its a simple case of he wins if he gets some luck and price is going to be okay
9 CHANCEABET $34 past couple have been way below best and whilst he would be competitive at best he needs to improve panels
10 BORNFIRST $101 totally outclassed
11 EARL HICKEY $101 find this too hard
12 BIDE YOUR TIME $101 no hope from this gate
Ratings 8/3/7/5/1/6
Race 7
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $1.5 surprisingly beaten 2 runs back at long odds on against a similar field but bounced back with a top win against harder than this last time. Tends to race lazily but should lead and win
2 MOLLIE FINN $26 resumes and has ability at best but this is tough first up
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI $21 had every hope last week and found a couple too good, never runs a bad race though and his early speed may be some concern to the fav
4 MURPHYS ROCKET $13 good form since coming to Tassie and has shown he can work in his races. Going to have to sit outside a good one here though
5 KEPT CALM $26 wasn't a bad run when resuming but still find this tough
6 MISTER GALLENTI $21 has ability but the draw really hinders his chances
7 ROSLYN AREFLYING $51 hasn't won for a long time and can't see that changing here
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PENNYS DRAGON $21 hasn't been going as well as she can but draws to get the type of run she likes so good exotics chance
9 TWOGRANDAHAND $21 very well driven to place last time when saved every inch of ground, worth noting that beat the 3rd horse by 10 metres that day but highly unlikely to get such a dream run again
10 BAYFIELD HIGH $17 lot better run than it looked last time, actually beat the fav from the same draw 2 runs back at huge odds so might be the blowout again
Ratings 1/10/4/3,5,6,8,9
Race 8
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $2.2 has a great record in these races, should lead once again and be the one to beat
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11 form is woeful on paper but resuming from a short break so keeping relatively safe
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $11 honest type who whacks away all day, might find a couple too slick late but won't shirk its task
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $4.5 well deserved win last week when had all the breaks but still won well in similar field so is obviously a chance again
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $17 form has tapered right off so prefer to wait until shows something
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5 going well and small field suits but with its sit/sprint style a lack of tempo may be the biggest concern
Ratings 1/6/4/3/2/5
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Sunday Tips
Launceston - all races
R1#2 Noelsgirl
R2#4 Sheza Western Rose
R3#1 Royal Alchemist
R4#6 Denvers Boy
R5#5 Miami Rocket
R6#3 Alma Grant
R7#8 The Musics Over
R8#6 Bonny Wee Laddie
No best bet (apart from Royal Alchemist) but a bit of value in most selections
$100 quaddie - due to get one of these surely. Still can't believe Secret Rendezvous won last week coming from last in a 28.2 last quarter after running 2nd last or last at previous 5 runs. Pretty tough tonight so going a bit wider than usual
2,3,4,6,9,11
1,2,5,7
2,3,6
3,5,8,10
$100 gives 34.7%
R1#2 Noelsgirl
R2#4 Sheza Western Rose
R3#1 Royal Alchemist
R4#6 Denvers Boy
R5#5 Miami Rocket
R6#3 Alma Grant
R7#8 The Musics Over
R8#6 Bonny Wee Laddie
No best bet (apart from Royal Alchemist) but a bit of value in most selections
$100 quaddie - due to get one of these surely. Still can't believe Secret Rendezvous won last week coming from last in a 28.2 last quarter after running 2nd last or last at previous 5 runs. Pretty tough tonight so going a bit wider than usual
2,3,4,6,9,11
1,2,5,7
2,3,6
3,5,8,10
$100 gives 34.7%
Launceston Sunday, odds and ratings
Race 1
1 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $101, was ordinary when resuming from a spell. No
2 NOELSGIRL $3.2, been very good at past 3 starts and draws to break her maiden here
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD $6, been finishing close up at recent runs and won't be far away here
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $13, having first start and market the only guide
5 BENJI VEE $9, looked quite promising early on last campaign but form tapered away badly. Resumes here without a trial but a definite watch
6 MIGHTY MYF $101, No chance
7 RUBYS LIFE $8, interesting runner who has plenty of ability when right and the conditions of this race suit her as most of her rivals have just turned 3 years old so is obviously more seasoned. Recent form is average but must include
8 TIME TO PRAY $101, struggling for form and this draw virtually gives him no chance
---------- Second Row ----------
9 APACHE ALBA $21, first up for over a year and whilst has some ability when right prefer to watch
10 SMILEUPONUS $11, another one resuming but certainly has ability. Has broken at only 2 starts and run last but a forward showing wouldn't surprise
11 JUST DANCE BABY $5, been very good at only 2 starts and whilst the draw makes it tough will be hard to beat with any luck
12 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34, yet to run a place and unlikely to change that scenario here
Ratings 2/11/3/7/4,5,10
Race 2
1 JAGER BOMB NZ $5, resuming from a spell but certainly has the ability to win this at best. Hard to be confident when first up but should run well
2 EL JAYS MODEENA $11, pulled her head off last start and battled on okay, may be the blowout if settles better in the run
3 SCARLETT BLAZE $8, had every hope last time and finished close up. This is easier so if enjoys the same sort of trip in transit could win
4 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $5, been quite impressive at the trials from all accounts. Huge watch
5 TOP PREMIER $13, opportunist type who needs the right run but is a must for exotics
6 AAPENNON $6, very consistent animal who deserves a win but I am a touch worried about this draw
7 THE DETONATOR
8 LOOK LOOK $34, going better than form suggests but the barrier makes it extremely tough
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MELMAN $8, should get a cheap run from here and will keep coming
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $17, fair run at debut when held ground with some handy horses, this no easier but should have derived some benefit
11 INTHENICKOFTIME $51, this is too tough
12 ANOPTOMIST $8, draw makes things tough but definitely going as well as anything in the race
13 WATTLE CREEK $26, has some ability but hard to have from the gate
Ratings 4/1/6/12/3/9/2,5,10
Race 3
1 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $1.4, super impressive last time when led, copped pressure and raced away. To add further merit to the win, the horse who had the cold sit on him all the way and couldn't get near him was Brian Buster Brown who has won his next 2 starts by more than 10 metres. Should win
2 SAAB QUALITY $8, has plenty of ability and will probably have a dip for the lead early but doubt he crosses. Still the main danger though
3 BARKERS RUN $101, no chance
4 THE JOUSTER $21, had his chance to win at first Tassie start when they staggered home but still went okay, good exotics chance
5 CRASH CART $21, going okay but a minor place chance only from this draw
6 AS YOU WISH $51,this looks too tough
7 MATAI NIGEL NZ $34, resumes from a spell and whilst he has some ability its hard to see him figuring from out here
8 LITTLE ELF $34, led and won a much weaker race last time and very difficult for him from out here. Minor place hope at the very best
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CHANCEABET $21, this bloke is either very good or very bad but has to be given a great place chance if he produces as draws to trail the fav and that will be position A for any runner in this
10 STEELINGTON NZ $34, went okay at first Tassie start and have to include in exotics
11 EARL HICKEY $101, outclassed
12 OUR KAIZAN NZ $51, hasn't done much in both Tasmanian runs so prepared to risk from this gate
Ratings 1/2/9/4,5/7,8,10
Race 4
1 BORNFIRST $34, has some speed but tends to race best at Devonport and not going well enough to feature here
2 SPECIAL GALLENTI $4.5, been very good lately leading and winning. Has had a slight let up but still be ultra competitive again
3 SANREOS $9, tough mare who grinds away, might lack the dash to win but never far away
4 HELVIK $13, hasn't had much luck since resuming so form is heaps better than it looks on paper. Has some chance
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY $21, sit/sprint horse who will need plenty of luck but wouldn't totally surprise
6 DENVERS BOY $4, been very good lately and also ultra consistent. Will be in the finish despite the draw
7 KEPT CALM $34, resuming and find it tough from out here
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THABELA BRIOSO $9, good win last time and should get a cheap run from here and definite chance if the breaks go her way
10 COMMANDER DATA $67, not going well enough
11 BALENCIA $6, tough mare who always puts herself into the race. Lacks a bit of speed but tries hard
12 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $21, past few have been below par, could win on best form but doubt he is at that level currently
13 MY CENTURION NZ $13, took the shortcut home when placed first up, draw makes it tougher but not the worst
Ratings 6/2/11/9/3,4/13
Race 5
1 REMEMBERPREECE $3.8, returns from Victoria where he raced against some good ones, bit of speed outside him and even if he gets crossed should get a soft run. Must include
2 MI MADEMOISELLE $11, going okay, will be driven for luck and if gets any could surprise
3 KING ALBERT $13, going okay, struggles to win but never far away
4 BONNY LENA $13, also returning from a Victorian stint where her form was average to say the least. Still keeping her safe as has ability when right
5 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $3.2, pulled himself into the ground at first Tasmanian start but looks suited here. Am worried with the junior driver though as seems a headstrong type
6 FORTY TWO GRAND $21, find it tough from out here
7 KING OF BLING $5, better suited back to the mile trip and has the gatespeed to lead if they wish. Needs it soft in front though
8 RESURGENCE
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21, pretty average last time, but should be driven quiter this time and might sneak a place
Ratings 5/1/7/2/field
Race 6
1 KOIZORA $26, led and won a farcical race last time, will find this a different kettle of fish so place best
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $4, won a similar race at $50 2 runs back and proved that was no fluke with a good performance making ground in a quick closing fraction last time. Definite chance
3 ALMA GRANT $3.8, looked to be travelling well when got knocked over at last start and from this draw will receive every hope so is the one they have to beat
4 BAJARDO RIVER $26, pretty average at past couple and can't have
5 CYCLONE DYNASTY $26, needs to lead to do its best and can't see that occurring here. No
6 NIGHT IN VEGAS $4, very good run when resuming and was also interfered with when there was a fall. Draw makes it tough but a legitimate chance
7 LOLA BROMAC NZ $9, been a shade disappointing but well up to this at her best. Hard to see her winning but won't be far away
8 MONICAS NOTCH $17, going a lot better than form suggests but still going to find it tough from here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SOPHIES PLEASURE $13, resuming and goes best when drawn to race on the speed but well up to this class at best so wouldn't totally surprise
10 BREATHING FIRE $15, been very disappointing at all runs since resuming from a long spell, prefer to wait until she actually does something
Ratings 3/2/6/7/8,9,10
Race 7
1 TOPUP $15, needs a very soft run to feature at this level but from this draw will probably get that and might sneak a place
2 ALLA BREVE $11, resuming and generally goes okay whilst fresh but would need to be right at the top of his game to win this so prepared to risk
3 CASTASPELL $11, finished close up in a similar field last time and courtesy of the handicap conditions of the race over the shortish trip I give him some hope
4 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $13, thought he was quite average last time but you have to respect him any time he draws the front in a stand courtesy of his stand start manners
5 DANCE OF THE DEITY $6, won at big odds against the same calibre of field last time and enjoys a healthy handicap advantage over a few this time so obviously comes into play. Has also performed well in stand starts previously in races such as the Devonport Cup and Easter Cup so a definite chance
6 ULOS $15, never runs a bad race but find this much tougher than claiming grade
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $15, struggling for form currently and whilst he could definitely win at his best I want to see him do something first
8 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.8, has really stepped up to this class and despite the handicap should be in the finish. I am struggling to see how he got a 10m handicap though as the lowest assessed horse in the field but still the one to beat
9 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34, another struggling to find his best form and find it tough from this handicap
10 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.8, the obvious class horse but has to overcome a 40m handicap over 2200m so can't afford anything to go wrong. Will probably start unders but can still win due to his class
Ratings 8/10/5/3/field
Race 8
1 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $21, very one paced but if stepped to the front would be a rough hope but will find a couple of these too quick
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $4, just keeps stepping to the front and winning these races and this is no harder than the rest of his wins. Should lead and take plenty of running down again
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) $21, is going a shade better than form suggests but still hard to see him winning
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $7, has run some very good races at this level lately and a definite EW chance
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $21, has been pretty average of late and hard to see him figuring
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5, been placed at all 3 runs since being claimed by the Hillier stable and looks well suited here
7 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11, has the ability to feature but can't afford to do anything wrong as a couple in this have had the wood on him recently
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $4, another who can't afford any mistakes from the 20m handicap but is the class runner of the field and the one to beat if he steps away cleanly
Ratings 6/8/2/4/7
1 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $101, was ordinary when resuming from a spell. No
2 NOELSGIRL $3.2, been very good at past 3 starts and draws to break her maiden here
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD $6, been finishing close up at recent runs and won't be far away here
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $13, having first start and market the only guide
5 BENJI VEE $9, looked quite promising early on last campaign but form tapered away badly. Resumes here without a trial but a definite watch
6 MIGHTY MYF $101, No chance
7 RUBYS LIFE $8, interesting runner who has plenty of ability when right and the conditions of this race suit her as most of her rivals have just turned 3 years old so is obviously more seasoned. Recent form is average but must include
8 TIME TO PRAY $101, struggling for form and this draw virtually gives him no chance
---------- Second Row ----------
9 APACHE ALBA $21, first up for over a year and whilst has some ability when right prefer to watch
10 SMILEUPONUS $11, another one resuming but certainly has ability. Has broken at only 2 starts and run last but a forward showing wouldn't surprise
11 JUST DANCE BABY $5, been very good at only 2 starts and whilst the draw makes it tough will be hard to beat with any luck
12 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $34, yet to run a place and unlikely to change that scenario here
Ratings 2/11/3/7/4,5,10
Race 2
1 JAGER BOMB NZ $5, resuming from a spell but certainly has the ability to win this at best. Hard to be confident when first up but should run well
2 EL JAYS MODEENA $11, pulled her head off last start and battled on okay, may be the blowout if settles better in the run
3 SCARLETT BLAZE $8, had every hope last time and finished close up. This is easier so if enjoys the same sort of trip in transit could win
4 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $5, been quite impressive at the trials from all accounts. Huge watch
5 TOP PREMIER $13, opportunist type who needs the right run but is a must for exotics
6 AAPENNON $6, very consistent animal who deserves a win but I am a touch worried about this draw
8 LOOK LOOK $34, going better than form suggests but the barrier makes it extremely tough
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MELMAN $8, should get a cheap run from here and will keep coming
10 LINE THE POCKET NZ $17, fair run at debut when held ground with some handy horses, this no easier but should have derived some benefit
11 INTHENICKOFTIME $51, this is too tough
12 ANOPTOMIST $8, draw makes things tough but definitely going as well as anything in the race
13 WATTLE CREEK $26, has some ability but hard to have from the gate
Ratings 4/1/6/12/3/9/2,5,10
Race 3
1 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $1.4, super impressive last time when led, copped pressure and raced away. To add further merit to the win, the horse who had the cold sit on him all the way and couldn't get near him was Brian Buster Brown who has won his next 2 starts by more than 10 metres. Should win
2 SAAB QUALITY $8, has plenty of ability and will probably have a dip for the lead early but doubt he crosses. Still the main danger though
3 BARKERS RUN $101, no chance
4 THE JOUSTER $21, had his chance to win at first Tassie start when they staggered home but still went okay, good exotics chance
5 CRASH CART $21, going okay but a minor place chance only from this draw
6 AS YOU WISH $51,this looks too tough
7 MATAI NIGEL NZ $34, resumes from a spell and whilst he has some ability its hard to see him figuring from out here
8 LITTLE ELF $34, led and won a much weaker race last time and very difficult for him from out here. Minor place hope at the very best
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CHANCEABET $21, this bloke is either very good or very bad but has to be given a great place chance if he produces as draws to trail the fav and that will be position A for any runner in this
10 STEELINGTON NZ $34, went okay at first Tassie start and have to include in exotics
11 EARL HICKEY $101, outclassed
12 OUR KAIZAN NZ $51, hasn't done much in both Tasmanian runs so prepared to risk from this gate
Ratings 1/2/9/4,5/7,8,10
Race 4
1 BORNFIRST $34, has some speed but tends to race best at Devonport and not going well enough to feature here
2 SPECIAL GALLENTI $4.5, been very good lately leading and winning. Has had a slight let up but still be ultra competitive again
3 SANREOS $9, tough mare who grinds away, might lack the dash to win but never far away
4 HELVIK $13, hasn't had much luck since resuming so form is heaps better than it looks on paper. Has some chance
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY $21, sit/sprint horse who will need plenty of luck but wouldn't totally surprise
6 DENVERS BOY $4, been very good lately and also ultra consistent. Will be in the finish despite the draw
7 KEPT CALM $34, resuming and find it tough from out here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THABELA BRIOSO $9, good win last time and should get a cheap run from here and definite chance if the breaks go her way
10 COMMANDER DATA $67, not going well enough
11 BALENCIA $6, tough mare who always puts herself into the race. Lacks a bit of speed but tries hard
12 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $21, past few have been below par, could win on best form but doubt he is at that level currently
13 MY CENTURION NZ $13, took the shortcut home when placed first up, draw makes it tougher but not the worst
Ratings 6/2/11/9/3,4/13
Race 5
1 REMEMBERPREECE $3.8, returns from Victoria where he raced against some good ones, bit of speed outside him and even if he gets crossed should get a soft run. Must include
2 MI MADEMOISELLE $11, going okay, will be driven for luck and if gets any could surprise
3 KING ALBERT $13, going okay, struggles to win but never far away
4 BONNY LENA $13, also returning from a Victorian stint where her form was average to say the least. Still keeping her safe as has ability when right
5 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $3.2, pulled himself into the ground at first Tasmanian start but looks suited here. Am worried with the junior driver though as seems a headstrong type
6 FORTY TWO GRAND $21, find it tough from out here
7 KING OF BLING $5, better suited back to the mile trip and has the gatespeed to lead if they wish. Needs it soft in front though
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21, pretty average last time, but should be driven quiter this time and might sneak a place
Ratings 5/1/7/2/field
Race 6
1 KOIZORA $26, led and won a farcical race last time, will find this a different kettle of fish so place best
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $4, won a similar race at $50 2 runs back and proved that was no fluke with a good performance making ground in a quick closing fraction last time. Definite chance
3 ALMA GRANT $3.8, looked to be travelling well when got knocked over at last start and from this draw will receive every hope so is the one they have to beat
4 BAJARDO RIVER $26, pretty average at past couple and can't have
5 CYCLONE DYNASTY $26, needs to lead to do its best and can't see that occurring here. No
6 NIGHT IN VEGAS $4, very good run when resuming and was also interfered with when there was a fall. Draw makes it tough but a legitimate chance
7 LOLA BROMAC NZ $9, been a shade disappointing but well up to this at her best. Hard to see her winning but won't be far away
8 MONICAS NOTCH $17, going a lot better than form suggests but still going to find it tough from here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SOPHIES PLEASURE $13, resuming and goes best when drawn to race on the speed but well up to this class at best so wouldn't totally surprise
10 BREATHING FIRE $15, been very disappointing at all runs since resuming from a long spell, prefer to wait until she actually does something
Ratings 3/2/6/7/8,9,10
Race 7
1 TOPUP $15, needs a very soft run to feature at this level but from this draw will probably get that and might sneak a place
2 ALLA BREVE $11, resuming and generally goes okay whilst fresh but would need to be right at the top of his game to win this so prepared to risk
3 CASTASPELL $11, finished close up in a similar field last time and courtesy of the handicap conditions of the race over the shortish trip I give him some hope
4 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $13, thought he was quite average last time but you have to respect him any time he draws the front in a stand courtesy of his stand start manners
5 DANCE OF THE DEITY $6, won at big odds against the same calibre of field last time and enjoys a healthy handicap advantage over a few this time so obviously comes into play. Has also performed well in stand starts previously in races such as the Devonport Cup and Easter Cup so a definite chance
6 ULOS $15, never runs a bad race but find this much tougher than claiming grade
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $15, struggling for form currently and whilst he could definitely win at his best I want to see him do something first
8 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.8, has really stepped up to this class and despite the handicap should be in the finish. I am struggling to see how he got a 10m handicap though as the lowest assessed horse in the field but still the one to beat
9 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34, another struggling to find his best form and find it tough from this handicap
10 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.8, the obvious class horse but has to overcome a 40m handicap over 2200m so can't afford anything to go wrong. Will probably start unders but can still win due to his class
Ratings 8/10/5/3/field
Race 8
1 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) $21, very one paced but if stepped to the front would be a rough hope but will find a couple of these too quick
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $4, just keeps stepping to the front and winning these races and this is no harder than the rest of his wins. Should lead and take plenty of running down again
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) $21, is going a shade better than form suggests but still hard to see him winning
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $7, has run some very good races at this level lately and a definite EW chance
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) $21, has been pretty average of late and hard to see him figuring
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) $3.5, been placed at all 3 runs since being claimed by the Hillier stable and looks well suited here
7 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11, has the ability to feature but can't afford to do anything wrong as a couple in this have had the wood on him recently
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $4, another who can't afford any mistakes from the 20m handicap but is the class runner of the field and the one to beat if he steps away cleanly
Ratings 6/8/2/4/7
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