Race 1
1 TIME TO PRAY $15 yet to run a place in 18 starts but past few haven't been awful, no surprise to see her sneak a place against this lot
2 LILLANS GIRL $17 has plenty of speed but isn't the strongest animal in the world, if she managed to cross the pole which she probably will would be in the mix for the placings
3 THANKGODYOURLOADED $17 both career starts have been well spaced and hasn't done much in either but trial form has been reasonable so one for exotics
4 ITS A HOOT $1.40 honest one paced type who has been placed in better fields at past 4 runs so looks extremely well placed against this lot. Will be put into the race and really should win on recent form
5 WATTLE CREEK $26 showed some ability early on but done little to enthuse at both runs this time in, is a shade better than form reads though so throw in the exotics if going wide
6 LITTLEBITOFGLORY $51 hasn't run a place and been beaten over 30 metres at past 5 runs so looks no hope from this draw
7 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $34 very disappointing when resuming and draw makes it tough but wouldn't surprise to see some improvement
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8 GUNBOWER JACK $51 needs to improve, has run last at 3 of past 4 starts and got beaten 51 metres in the other run which sums up how its going
9 ITSALLABOUTTHEFOOD $51 broke when resuming but previous form was average so prefer others
10 BAINFIELD AROHA NZ $11 interesting runner resuming and has run last, 2nd last, last and last at past 4 runs but has plenty of ability when right so watch market moves closely as would be the only danger to the fav if at her best
Race 2
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $4 honest type who will be right in the finish with a clean getaway
2 JEFFERSON NZ ($5,000) $4 this is his best draw in ages (meets most of rivals 20 metres better due to reduction in his claiming price) and would definitely win this on best form so a massive improvement would not surprise
3 AUSSIE CULLEN ($5,000) $6 good run at first start back in Tassie, another with a good winning chance in a very even race
4 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $6 very good win at this level 3 runs back then outclassed at past 2 runs so a good chance of bouncing back to form
5 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11 been around the mark at this level recently, will need to do everything right to win but not without claims
6 FORTY TWO GRAND ($6,000) $6 honest type who beat better than these when led 2 starts back, obviously won't lead from the handicap but still a very good chance
Race 3
1 BIDE YOUR TIME $7 going well at the moment, bit of a query from behind the tapes (as are a lot of these) but looks the only possible danger to fav if he did something wrong
2 EARL HICKEY $26 blew the stand at Carrick which isn't a good sign, previous form was fair so a minor place chance if does everything right
3 CATS AND DOGS $11 resumes and has won from the stand before which is an obvious bonus and has a good career record (placed in 9 of 11 Tassie starts). Trial form isn't startling for his return but a must for exotics
4 BESTOILYET $101 resuming and form simply isn't good enough
5 CHANCEABET $26 tough horse whose form has really tapered off lately but given a clean getaway might get into the placings
6 SHIRNELL $51 form is a lot better than it looks on paper but still faces a huge ask here
7 CRASH CART $21 always running on, must say that the stand is a huge worry as he has his issues from behind the mobile but another who could place with a safe getaway
8 GEDLEE $1.2 potential star who looked more like his true self last time finishing off in 27.8 hard held. Simply wins with a clean getaway and would be $1.04 in a mobile but has never started from behind the tapes before so hard to launch in at the shorts
9 DEANS LEGEND $101 first up for 3 years and hasn't won a race in over 5 years and has to give a star a 20 metre headstart. No thanks
Race 4
1 PUT MBACK $2.2 very cheeky run last time when led and just got nabbed late, Gareth jumps on here and looks the leader again so clearly the one to beat
2 REALLY WESTERN $3 has raced very well at both career starts to date and once again will be right in the mix
3 WUNDABABE $17 resuming and taking on the boys but did run some good races last time in so won't be far away but prefer place best
4 WOODY BEOURS $4.5 interesting runner resuming who was just a shade below the best in his 2yo campaign but looked as if he would develop into a fair horse. Trial form is okay so a huge query
5 CROMBIE BAY $34 find this easier than past couple but still needs to lift
6 DENVERADO $101 had cheap runs at both starts and hasn't done a lot so needs to improve
7 TRUMP LADY $51 did a bit wrong at first start and was beaten clearly, wait until she shows something
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8 BIDDY JONES $26 got it wrong on debut then was spelled, has trialled only fairly but from this good trailing draw is still one for exotics
Race 5
1 THE BULLIONAIRE $26 sit/sprint type who bobs up on occasions, will obviously be taking the short way home from this gate so may improve
2 MOST HAPPY JASPER $13 never gets beaten far but hasn't won for ages so place best
3 BRO TOWN NZ $4.5 showed teriffic gatespeed to lead in a tougher race last time and wasn't beaten far (did get away with a 66.1 first half though), however if he led again would be a good chance
4 WIZARD JONES $21 fair run when resuming, bit of speed under him here so minor place hope at best
5 MERLIN BROMAC NZ $21 hasn't done much in all three Tasmanian runs to date, has had a short let up so may improve but would need to
6 REALLY IMATIGERESS $17 good win when drew the pole 3 starts back then struggled at next couple. Likely to find it tough again from out here but not the worst
7 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $3.5 went like a jet winning last time, ton of speed under him here though so won't get the front but simply has to be regarded as a major hope
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8 LOCKDOWN $17 best run in ages last time, showed good ability early on but hadn't done anything for ages prior to last week. Likely to get a cheap run and might bob up with luck
9 ASHINAGA $8 past couple have been very good, generally races best when drawn the front as is very one paced but with a bit of speed off the front he should trail through okay and won't be far away at the end
10 WINDY WINGS $51 form simply isn't good enough
11 OSCARS ACE $13 couple of even runs when resuming, hard to see him winning from this draw but a must for exotics
12 DELTA SANDS $21 led and got away with murder to scrape home last week, diffrent kettle of fish from this gate so place hopes appear best
Race 6
1 SUMTIMELATER $21 has been okay at the trials but hasn't done much at the races, may be an improver from the better draw so throw into the exotics
2 STRATEGIC MISS $11 cheeky run in a better field last time, whilst she is a 31 start maiden she is certainly going well enough to be given a rough winning hope
3 SIR YOIE $3.5 been very good at both runs since resuming, should press forward from this gate and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Still a decent chance if doesn't lead
4 IM ONLY DREAMING $26 first starter with reasonable trial form, betting the best guide
5 TASPACEDOTCOM $21 took full advantage of the pole draw last time to trail through into a place and whilst she doesn't draw as well here is a place hope again
6 SHEEZ EXQUISITE NZ $17 disappointing mare who promised a bit early on but never quite went on with it. First up run was just fair as well so whilst she has to be kept relatively safe would need to improve
7 MARACAS BAY $26 generally runs an honest race but hard to have from this gate
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8 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $17 been going okay in similar races, will need luck to figure but certainly not the worst
9 ODINS LIONHEART $15 had his chance when resuming and just plugged into a place so once a again, place hopes appear best
10 MARGABLEON $13 recent trial winner in slow time, watch any betting moves closely
11 LINE THE POCKET NZ $3 looked very unlucky last time and this race is easier if anything but obviously draws far worse. Given ordinary luck though will be in the finish
12 ARKABE JEWEL $34 is now ODM, always runs on late when others are tiring but very hard to see her winning
Race 7
1 TROJAN CALM NZ $15 hasn't won for a very long time and recent form is average to say the least. This is her best draw in a long time though so an improvement wouldn't totally surprise
2 NEW YORK FELLA $4 has chased home some good ones lately and this looks a good race for him. Is always competitive and draws well so is right in the mix
3 PHANTOM JASPER $17 one paced type who struggles to win as finds the others too quick at the end of the race, only winning hope would be if he led and doubt that happens but still an exotics hope as will whack away
4 WEEMALANEWS (Em 1) improved of late, be about a $13 pop if got a run
5 MISTER GALLENTI $6 looks well placed in this race on best form, can mix his form but if the right one turned up would be a major player. He is usually well supported when they think he can win so monitor betting with him
6 CAM DILLON $26 resuming and hasn't won for 3 years but form was reasonable prior to a break. Not hopeless
7 TWOGRANDAHAND $13 certainly going well enough to win but going to need a lot to go right from this barrier. Prefer as a place chance but some hope of winning if gets the breaks
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8 BAYFIELD HIGH $13 underrated type who continues to run good races from bad barriers, will need luck from this gate but certainly not the worst
9 SPRINGVALE FLYER $7 enigmatic beast resuming from a let up and form prior to the break was well below his best. Would probably win this at his best so monitor betting moves closely
10 OPERATIVE DELIGHT $15 another horse who hasn't won for 3 years but both runs since a break have actually been okay and might go round at silly odds. Certainly include in exotics
11 DUART CASTLE $26 has beaten better than these but generally runs best races when leading so find it tough from here
12 PAUL ALBERT $101 has a habit of bobbing up and winning at big odds but recent form suggests that virtually no hope here and he is now a 10yo so best days appear past him
13 NOVEMBER TWENTY $51 racing well below his best form and can't concede him a winning chance from this gate
