Most of you who know me will attest to the fact that I am usally quite forthright with opinions on Tassie trots but I have to put my hand up today and say there are 4 races here that totally have me perplexed
Race 1
Impossible race to work out with nearly every runner having a chance on exposed form and there are also a couple of well bred first starters that bear watching. #7 Klebnikova Leis raced well against the top fillies so have put her on top, #8 Mazuri Malita was unwanted in betting at first start but won well and is right in this again. Its interesting to note that Gareth drove #8 at first start when it won and takes the reins on #4 Semose Twenty who was spelled after getting it wrong when fav at only start so obviously is a huge watch. #2 Twenty One Grand won a trial in slow time but monitor betting as stable loves a bet and both #5 Major Player and #6 Azarenka Leis have claims
Ratings 4,7,8/2?/1?,5,6/3
Race 2
This is a nightmare, mile race with all the major players drawn awkwardly and as a rule these races are leader dominated so its a bit of a dilemma. #10 Marossi has form against better than these but is very inconsistent but would win at his best, #11 Topoftheclouds has a good turn of speed with the right run and has good trailing draw, #13 Currynroses is going as good as anything but draw makes it extremely hard. The way the barrier draw has fallen, its almost impossible to rule anything out as even spotted #1 Good To Be Holme, #2 Jebs Xtreme and #3 Close By run cheeky races last time
Ratings ??? 10,11/13/8,12/field
Race 3
This race is a lot easier to define as only appear to be 4 legitimate winning hopes. #12 Maggie Kennedy has been the best filly all year but was extremely disappointing last time, #11 Levina Leis has improved out of sight recently and reckon she can beat Maggie. Only other hopes are #1 Safina Leis who looks to be recapturing her early form and #3 Ell Ess Babe ran a bottler last time and has to be respected
Ratings
11/12/1/3
Race 4
Another hard race to assess with #10 Iden Justasmyrk looking disappointing on face value first up but did get hammered in the lead (ran lead time in 43.0 which is about 1.5 seconds quicker than average so prepare to overlook) so has some excuses and would win this on best form, #6 zurbaran had his chance first up but just battled but reckon he might lead here so has to come into calculations, #9 Maybe Doc has had a lot of racing and looks flat but still looms as the next best. Place chances go to the disappointing #1 Karalta Macloud, #2 Cardinal Dreamer, #4 Enchanted Heart and #5 Jonny Red Neat
Ratings 10/6/9/1,2,4,5
Race 5
Another impossible race with 7 starters and can realistically see them all being single figures come race time its that even. Thought #1 Murillo Bromac would be hardest to beat but unsure if can hold up from the pole and don't want to be on if gets crossed. #3 Paloona is very one paced but won't be far away and may be decent odds
Ratings 1/2,3,7/field
Race 6
Said to somebody last week that this is the best Tasmanian horse I have seen in a decade and I was referring to #3 Gedlee who is a dead set star, will zoom straight to the front here and run home 56 if they want but will be a good thing's price obviously. Multiples are the way to go and confident that either #6 Jay Bardon or the disappointing #7 Thirsty Mach will run 2nd with oyher place hopes to #4 Willy Play, #5 Cardinal Tucker, #8 Lugovoi Leis and #9 Truly Blissful
Ratings 3/6,7/4,8/5,9
Race 7
Good stand start race this with the interesting runner being #1 Alla Breve who is new to this level and also to standing starts but if he stepped to the front would be mighty hard to beat but the stand has to be a query especially with good stand horses outside him who will cross if even slightly tardy. For that reason, I have the backmarkers on top in #8 Yuschenko Leis who I don't think got the credit it deserved for last win after going 27.9 down the back and #9 Babyitsyu who is honest and tough and will be put into the race at some stage. As always with standing starts there are a few other chances given the right run in #5 Gettysburgh Address, #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper and #4 Armbro Spur. Even #6 Winjammer has a blowout
Ratings 8.9/1/3,4,5
Race 8
Hate sitting on the fence but finding this race nigh on impossible as well and the only horse I have put a line through saying "can't win" is #11 Wholelotasound. To make things worse in this race, there are 2 horses in #6 Balencia and #13 Underdog who would blow this lot away at their best but are very inconsistent. Its just one of those races and I apologise but I simply cannot narrow it down
Ratings 13/6/2,4
Race 9
Pretty keen on #2 Our Sir Lew who drops in grade and gets the services of Nat Emery today who he flies for. Is tough and honest and reckon he might lead today (provided the driver on pole doesn't have a brain explosion as would be a good EW bet if sat LB but no hope if led). Of the rest #10 Prince Niadh is going extremely well in this grade and draws okay behind the 2 and all of 1,4,6,8,12 have some hope with the right run
Ratings 2/10/8/4,6,12/1,9
Race 10
Watching the replays of the last runs of #8 Nobeer Nocheer and #4 The Musics Over almost makes me want to cry as both should have won easily and I was on both of them. Have no doubt that Nobeer is a better horse but the barrier evens things up so finding it hard to split them. Of the rest #5 King Of Bling has strong Victorian form and is a huge watch first up for the Hillier camp and #2 Advance Dundee boxed on very well last time which surprised me. Those 4 wind up the winning hopes but all runners have first four hopes
Ratings 8/4/5/2/field
