Courtesy of a mate of mine:
NSW ambushed Qld last year in game 3 with a more aggressive approach which worked really well. According to the papers in NSW, this will not change. Of course Qld will be more prepared this time.
It is absolutely miserable here atm, and expected to stay the same until game time. Of course you have the best 34 players in Australia playing but handling will still be a problem. I think this will be more of an issue for NSW than Qld. NSW have picked forwards which love to offload. Watmough, Lewis, Creagh, and Waterhouse all love the 2nd phase play.
This weather all but nullifies that out of their game. You can’t win an origin game in the wet by trying to get your arms free every tackle to try and pass. They have erred especially due to the weather by not picking Gallen. This places more pressure on the NSW front row. Weyman and Perry are in good form, but Weyman especially will not play long minutes and then we have Brett White…..the softest forward ever to play Origin! On the qld side we have Scott(???) and the legend Civ. With Shillington, and Taylor on the bench I believe their go forward is better than NSW. Thaiaday and Myles in career best form is just another bonus for Qld
Go to the backs…..why NSW would pick a pivot out of position is beyond me. I was praying for Tahu to be injured simply because it meant Lyon would go to the centres where he belongs and Barrett or Finch would be no 6, Lyon and Noddy v Lockyer and Thurston, with Cronk on the bench……wow…….
Then we have the backline. Gidley……he did nothing last year yet they retain him, as captain, and cast off the best player in the NSW team to play off the wing. Dumb Dumb Dumb. Hayne will not see enough ball…again…..Slater is 10 times the maggot but 10 times the player Gidley is.
Inglis will have his hands full IF Tahu shows up. He has played some blinders but if he plays like he did v sharks in round 3 then Inglis will eat him up. Boyd will have issues against Hayne, and NSW will have to try and exploit this advantage. Morris has to try and play clean v Folau because at the 1st chance Folau will pretend to be a WWE wrestler and feign an injury in a bomb situation and get a penalty….union deserve him!
Weather is predicted to be miserable, so handling is vital. Gotta keep it tight, no dumb offloads, and be patient for points. Total id say will be 30-32.
Prediction and tips….qld to win. NSW getting all the money, and 2 years ago home ground would have been an advantage, but not any more. I hope to hell NSW win but I can’t see it happening. Take qld, and for more value take them 1-12 if you want. Unlikely in these conditions a team will run away with the game.
Take Folau and Thaiaday to be last try scorer. Qld always score last in Origin games….its almost ritualistic.
Also, put $5 on a real smokey…tryless match @ $101……not the dumbest 100/1 shot in the world, and the conditions will suit. Has happened once in Origin history……
Just my 2 cents
