Shocking meeting and not with a great deal of confidence came up with these
Hobart
R1#5 Iden Noshot, stand a query but been competitive against better than these and go mighty close with clean getaway
1st $1.70, silly price but it won I suppose
R4#5 Thirstysixtoes, chased home some smart ones at first Tassie start and form has stood up very strongly since with 1st and 2nd from that race running the quinella again last night. #6 Prisonbreak went around in that race too and wasn't too bad so reckon one of the 2 will win. That formline is much stronger than anything else in the race
3rd but very ordinary to be honest, drove it perfectly and just plugged home, never again
Monday, May 31, 2010
Drivers pulling 3 wide on camels, how do we stop them?
Without a doubt my biggest gripe when watching a Harness race is when some muppet decides to pull out 3 wide in front of the 3 wide train and go nowhere. Was reminded of it Saturday night when watching the trot at Geelong and John Meade pulled out on $102 pop Glorys Adam at the 800 and went backwards and therefore gave anything behind it no chance at all.
I don't want to single out an individual driver as it happens at most meetings and it was just this instance that reminded me. No doubt the stewards will roll out the old "Query Driving Tactics" and "Driver advised to exercise more care in future" when in reality they have directly impacted the chances of 5-6 horses in the race. Stewards love suspending drivers who attack the leader for a prolonged period (only impacting one other horse), but these cowboys who became nothing more than road blocks always get away with it despite impacting the chances of many more runners. They are also quick to penalise drivers who don't pull out and then don't get a run but surely its less of a mistake to stay in and drive for luck than pull 3 wide on a horse that obviously has no hope and directly impact the chances of others.
It almost cost Rocknrolla the Group 1 Vicbred final Friday night when Grant Campbell pulled out in front of her on Peaces Of You and then couldn't take her into the race so she was left 4 wide and 12 metres off the leaders and would have been cruel to see her beaten. Its fair to say that Grant was within his rights to pull out when he did and only got beaten 19 metres and I don't disagree in this instance. It is however an example of how only a minor infraction in regards to this issue can impact others so you can imagine how much it can hurt when the 3 wide horse cannot go at all.
I cannot emphasise how ridiculous it seems to me that Chris Alford gets suspended for 2 weeks for excessive whip use and misses 2 group winning drives on Bonavista Bay and Broadways Best yet these blokes who totally ruin a race get away with it every single time.
All stewards have to do is put their foot down a couple of times and it wouldn't occur as frequently.
I don't want to single out an individual driver as it happens at most meetings and it was just this instance that reminded me. No doubt the stewards will roll out the old "Query Driving Tactics" and "Driver advised to exercise more care in future" when in reality they have directly impacted the chances of 5-6 horses in the race. Stewards love suspending drivers who attack the leader for a prolonged period (only impacting one other horse), but these cowboys who became nothing more than road blocks always get away with it despite impacting the chances of many more runners. They are also quick to penalise drivers who don't pull out and then don't get a run but surely its less of a mistake to stay in and drive for luck than pull 3 wide on a horse that obviously has no hope and directly impact the chances of others.
It almost cost Rocknrolla the Group 1 Vicbred final Friday night when Grant Campbell pulled out in front of her on Peaces Of You and then couldn't take her into the race so she was left 4 wide and 12 metres off the leaders and would have been cruel to see her beaten. Its fair to say that Grant was within his rights to pull out when he did and only got beaten 19 metres and I don't disagree in this instance. It is however an example of how only a minor infraction in regards to this issue can impact others so you can imagine how much it can hurt when the 3 wide horse cannot go at all.
I cannot emphasise how ridiculous it seems to me that Chris Alford gets suspended for 2 weeks for excessive whip use and misses 2 group winning drives on Bonavista Bay and Broadways Best yet these blokes who totally ruin a race get away with it every single time.
All stewards have to do is put their foot down a couple of times and it wouldn't occur as frequently.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Harness Tips - Monday May 31
Stawell
R6#3 Igetaround, not big on tipping 3yos in an open age CO as believe they are poor value as a rule but in this instance the only 2 perceived dangers are both 3yos themselves. He looks the leader and is mighty tough as well which is never a bad combination. Stawell is also a track that some horses struggle at with its lack of camber and tight turns so also worth noting that his last victory was on this track. Expecting around $1.60
Beaten by a nose @ $1.70, chances were not helped at all by the driver on a $122 chance (Nancy Dennis) kicking up for 400 metres which resulted in a sub 60 first half and staggering home in 63. Not surprisingly Nancy's drive just beat the ambulance home .....
R6#3 Igetaround, not big on tipping 3yos in an open age CO as believe they are poor value as a rule but in this instance the only 2 perceived dangers are both 3yos themselves. He looks the leader and is mighty tough as well which is never a bad combination. Stawell is also a track that some horses struggle at with its lack of camber and tight turns so also worth noting that his last victory was on this track. Expecting around $1.60
Beaten by a nose @ $1.70, chances were not helped at all by the driver on a $122 chance (Nancy Dennis) kicking up for 400 metres which resulted in a sub 60 first half and staggering home in 63. Not surprisingly Nancy's drive just beat the ambulance home .....
Harness Racing - Sunday May 30
Launceston preview below.
Only keen on one horse all day
Launceston
R9#2 Our Sir Lew, drops in grade and gets reunited with Nat Emery who improved him out of sight when she last drove him. Expect him to press forward and either lead or death seat and whilst he is no star he does keep going
Price got smashed into $1.70 but still a winner. Was expecting around $2.50 minimum to be honest. Was a better win than it looked as well as when they go that slowly up front (pedestrian lead time and 34.9 first quarter) it is very difficult for those out wide
Only keen on one horse all day
Launceston
R9#2 Our Sir Lew, drops in grade and gets reunited with Nat Emery who improved him out of sight when she last drove him. Expect him to press forward and either lead or death seat and whilst he is no star he does keep going
Price got smashed into $1.70 but still a winner. Was expecting around $2.50 minimum to be honest. Was a better win than it looked as well as when they go that slowly up front (pedestrian lead time and 34.9 first quarter) it is very difficult for those out wide
Tassie Preview - Sunday May 30
Most of you who know me will attest to the fact that I am usally quite forthright with opinions on Tassie trots but I have to put my hand up today and say there are 4 races here that totally have me perplexed
Race 1
Impossible race to work out with nearly every runner having a chance on exposed form and there are also a couple of well bred first starters that bear watching. #7 Klebnikova Leis raced well against the top fillies so have put her on top, #8 Mazuri Malita was unwanted in betting at first start but won well and is right in this again. Its interesting to note that Gareth drove #8 at first start when it won and takes the reins on #4 Semose Twenty who was spelled after getting it wrong when fav at only start so obviously is a huge watch. #2 Twenty One Grand won a trial in slow time but monitor betting as stable loves a bet and both #5 Major Player and #6 Azarenka Leis have claims
Ratings 4,7,8/2?/1?,5,6/3
Race 2
This is a nightmare, mile race with all the major players drawn awkwardly and as a rule these races are leader dominated so its a bit of a dilemma. #10 Marossi has form against better than these but is very inconsistent but would win at his best, #11 Topoftheclouds has a good turn of speed with the right run and has good trailing draw, #13 Currynroses is going as good as anything but draw makes it extremely hard. The way the barrier draw has fallen, its almost impossible to rule anything out as even spotted #1 Good To Be Holme, #2 Jebs Xtreme and #3 Close By run cheeky races last time
Ratings ??? 10,11/13/8,12/field
Race 3
This race is a lot easier to define as only appear to be 4 legitimate winning hopes. #12 Maggie Kennedy has been the best filly all year but was extremely disappointing last time, #11 Levina Leis has improved out of sight recently and reckon she can beat Maggie. Only other hopes are #1 Safina Leis who looks to be recapturing her early form and #3 Ell Ess Babe ran a bottler last time and has to be respected
Ratings
11/12/1/3
Race 4
Another hard race to assess with #10 Iden Justasmyrk looking disappointing on face value first up but did get hammered in the lead (ran lead time in 43.0 which is about 1.5 seconds quicker than average so prepare to overlook) so has some excuses and would win this on best form, #6 zurbaran had his chance first up but just battled but reckon he might lead here so has to come into calculations, #9 Maybe Doc has had a lot of racing and looks flat but still looms as the next best. Place chances go to the disappointing #1 Karalta Macloud, #2 Cardinal Dreamer, #4 Enchanted Heart and #5 Jonny Red Neat
Ratings 10/6/9/1,2,4,5
Race 5
Another impossible race with 7 starters and can realistically see them all being single figures come race time its that even. Thought #1 Murillo Bromac would be hardest to beat but unsure if can hold up from the pole and don't want to be on if gets crossed. #3 Paloona is very one paced but won't be far away and may be decent odds
Ratings 1/2,3,7/field
Race 6
Said to somebody last week that this is the best Tasmanian horse I have seen in a decade and I was referring to #3 Gedlee who is a dead set star, will zoom straight to the front here and run home 56 if they want but will be a good thing's price obviously. Multiples are the way to go and confident that either #6 Jay Bardon or the disappointing #7 Thirsty Mach will run 2nd with oyher place hopes to #4 Willy Play, #5 Cardinal Tucker, #8 Lugovoi Leis and #9 Truly Blissful
Ratings 3/6,7/4,8/5,9
Race 7
Good stand start race this with the interesting runner being #1 Alla Breve who is new to this level and also to standing starts but if he stepped to the front would be mighty hard to beat but the stand has to be a query especially with good stand horses outside him who will cross if even slightly tardy. For that reason, I have the backmarkers on top in #8 Yuschenko Leis who I don't think got the credit it deserved for last win after going 27.9 down the back and #9 Babyitsyu who is honest and tough and will be put into the race at some stage. As always with standing starts there are a few other chances given the right run in #5 Gettysburgh Address, #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper and #4 Armbro Spur. Even #6 Winjammer has a blowout
Ratings 8.9/1/3,4,5
Race 8
Hate sitting on the fence but finding this race nigh on impossible as well and the only horse I have put a line through saying "can't win" is #11 Wholelotasound. To make things worse in this race, there are 2 horses in #6 Balencia and #13 Underdog who would blow this lot away at their best but are very inconsistent. Its just one of those races and I apologise but I simply cannot narrow it down
Ratings 13/6/2,4
Race 9
Pretty keen on #2 Our Sir Lew who drops in grade and gets the services of Nat Emery today who he flies for. Is tough and honest and reckon he might lead today (provided the driver on pole doesn't have a brain explosion as would be a good EW bet if sat LB but no hope if led). Of the rest #10 Prince Niadh is going extremely well in this grade and draws okay behind the 2 and all of 1,4,6,8,12 have some hope with the right run
Ratings 2/10/8/4,6,12/1,9
Race 10
Watching the replays of the last runs of #8 Nobeer Nocheer and #4 The Musics Over almost makes me want to cry as both should have won easily and I was on both of them. Have no doubt that Nobeer is a better horse but the barrier evens things up so finding it hard to split them. Of the rest #5 King Of Bling has strong Victorian form and is a huge watch first up for the Hillier camp and #2 Advance Dundee boxed on very well last time which surprised me. Those 4 wind up the winning hopes but all runners have first four hopes
Ratings 8/4/5/2/field
Race 1
Impossible race to work out with nearly every runner having a chance on exposed form and there are also a couple of well bred first starters that bear watching. #7 Klebnikova Leis raced well against the top fillies so have put her on top, #8 Mazuri Malita was unwanted in betting at first start but won well and is right in this again. Its interesting to note that Gareth drove #8 at first start when it won and takes the reins on #4 Semose Twenty who was spelled after getting it wrong when fav at only start so obviously is a huge watch. #2 Twenty One Grand won a trial in slow time but monitor betting as stable loves a bet and both #5 Major Player and #6 Azarenka Leis have claims
Ratings 4,7,8/2?/1?,5,6/3
Race 2
This is a nightmare, mile race with all the major players drawn awkwardly and as a rule these races are leader dominated so its a bit of a dilemma. #10 Marossi has form against better than these but is very inconsistent but would win at his best, #11 Topoftheclouds has a good turn of speed with the right run and has good trailing draw, #13 Currynroses is going as good as anything but draw makes it extremely hard. The way the barrier draw has fallen, its almost impossible to rule anything out as even spotted #1 Good To Be Holme, #2 Jebs Xtreme and #3 Close By run cheeky races last time
Ratings ??? 10,11/13/8,12/field
Race 3
This race is a lot easier to define as only appear to be 4 legitimate winning hopes. #12 Maggie Kennedy has been the best filly all year but was extremely disappointing last time, #11 Levina Leis has improved out of sight recently and reckon she can beat Maggie. Only other hopes are #1 Safina Leis who looks to be recapturing her early form and #3 Ell Ess Babe ran a bottler last time and has to be respected
Ratings
11/12/1/3
Race 4
Another hard race to assess with #10 Iden Justasmyrk looking disappointing on face value first up but did get hammered in the lead (ran lead time in 43.0 which is about 1.5 seconds quicker than average so prepare to overlook) so has some excuses and would win this on best form, #6 zurbaran had his chance first up but just battled but reckon he might lead here so has to come into calculations, #9 Maybe Doc has had a lot of racing and looks flat but still looms as the next best. Place chances go to the disappointing #1 Karalta Macloud, #2 Cardinal Dreamer, #4 Enchanted Heart and #5 Jonny Red Neat
Ratings 10/6/9/1,2,4,5
Race 5
Another impossible race with 7 starters and can realistically see them all being single figures come race time its that even. Thought #1 Murillo Bromac would be hardest to beat but unsure if can hold up from the pole and don't want to be on if gets crossed. #3 Paloona is very one paced but won't be far away and may be decent odds
Ratings 1/2,3,7/field
Race 6
Said to somebody last week that this is the best Tasmanian horse I have seen in a decade and I was referring to #3 Gedlee who is a dead set star, will zoom straight to the front here and run home 56 if they want but will be a good thing's price obviously. Multiples are the way to go and confident that either #6 Jay Bardon or the disappointing #7 Thirsty Mach will run 2nd with oyher place hopes to #4 Willy Play, #5 Cardinal Tucker, #8 Lugovoi Leis and #9 Truly Blissful
Ratings 3/6,7/4,8/5,9
Race 7
Good stand start race this with the interesting runner being #1 Alla Breve who is new to this level and also to standing starts but if he stepped to the front would be mighty hard to beat but the stand has to be a query especially with good stand horses outside him who will cross if even slightly tardy. For that reason, I have the backmarkers on top in #8 Yuschenko Leis who I don't think got the credit it deserved for last win after going 27.9 down the back and #9 Babyitsyu who is honest and tough and will be put into the race at some stage. As always with standing starts there are a few other chances given the right run in #5 Gettysburgh Address, #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper and #4 Armbro Spur. Even #6 Winjammer has a blowout
Ratings 8.9/1/3,4,5
Race 8
Hate sitting on the fence but finding this race nigh on impossible as well and the only horse I have put a line through saying "can't win" is #11 Wholelotasound. To make things worse in this race, there are 2 horses in #6 Balencia and #13 Underdog who would blow this lot away at their best but are very inconsistent. Its just one of those races and I apologise but I simply cannot narrow it down
Ratings 13/6/2,4
Race 9
Pretty keen on #2 Our Sir Lew who drops in grade and gets the services of Nat Emery today who he flies for. Is tough and honest and reckon he might lead today (provided the driver on pole doesn't have a brain explosion as would be a good EW bet if sat LB but no hope if led). Of the rest #10 Prince Niadh is going extremely well in this grade and draws okay behind the 2 and all of 1,4,6,8,12 have some hope with the right run
Ratings 2/10/8/4,6,12/1,9
Race 10
Watching the replays of the last runs of #8 Nobeer Nocheer and #4 The Musics Over almost makes me want to cry as both should have won easily and I was on both of them. Have no doubt that Nobeer is a better horse but the barrier evens things up so finding it hard to split them. Of the rest #5 King Of Bling has strong Victorian form and is a huge watch first up for the Hillier camp and #2 Advance Dundee boxed on very well last time which surprised me. Those 4 wind up the winning hopes but all runners have first four hopes
Ratings 8/4/5/2/field
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Harness Tips - Saturday May 29
Geelong - no specials but will be having something on these
R1#4 Knightof Elderslie, been trialling okay at the Marsh and thought last run was full of merit after being shunted 4 wide at the 500. Could represent a bit of value with poor numerical form. Going to play exotics around 1,4,7,9 as don't like 5 at all and 3 has been disappointing
UNP Lobbed leaders back at odds of $6.80 and some idiot (me) went the early crow declaring it. Should've known better as choked down and was retired from race
R2#4 Ninegrandsons, talking of trial form this bloke just flies. Ran last mile in 2.01.0 at the trials which is unheard of in this class so if he decides to put it together should win. Barring mistakes the only danger is #1 Im Chilled so play the quin for something. The other chances all come off handicaps and in 2100 stands if something half decent leads it is a mathematical impossibility to make up the ground out wide. Don't break the bank in this race though as horse is a fruit loop
1st $2.70, did everything right this evening and smashed them
R3#5 Farmersntradies, went enormous in Tatlow final (went heaps better than #7 Did It Alone who just beat him home), then backed up Monday and smashed an average lot where they walked home in 61 but appeals as one of those 2yos that didn't have the speed to compete over short trips but as he just keeps grinding the 2100 suits a lot better. You know he won't shirk the task so be having something on and standing him out into 6,7,8 in the quin
1st $2.30, once he found the front it was time to get in the queue, 5,6 quin paid $7
R5#2 Just Don't Be Cruel, too bad to be true first up when raced very flat all race and also hung on every turn and I am sure the Strathfieldsaye boys have spent time sorting him out. Showed excellent gate speed at the trials and the horse he trialled similarly to simply flew at Ballarat. Well worth another chance on the basis that first up was just an aberration. Will probably know as soon as the mobile pulls away whether we are on the horse who raced flat and hung or whether the real one turns up
1st $3.70, got the front, walked em and staggered in. Never again but take the win all the same
and for those keen enough
R8#5 Forest Babe, just miles better than these and sometimes see these start silly odds in the last. Should be $1.20 or shorter but with people looking for value to get out it might pay something silly like $1.40 and that is akin to stealing. Just keep an eye out if watching as it won't lose
Brained em, 1st $1.30
Might have a go at picking my own Quaddie (in races I like, not the ones the TAB dictates me to take)
Race 1 - 1,4,7,9
Race 2 - 1,4
Race 3 - 5,6,8
Race 5 - 2,4
Take for $2 = $96
Collect $399.75
Race 1 - 1,4,7,9
Race 2 - 12
Race 3 - 5,6,8
Race 5 - 2,4
No good obviously if the other one got up!!
Take for $1 = $24
R1#4 Knightof Elderslie, been trialling okay at the Marsh and thought last run was full of merit after being shunted 4 wide at the 500. Could represent a bit of value with poor numerical form. Going to play exotics around 1,4,7,9 as don't like 5 at all and 3 has been disappointing
UNP Lobbed leaders back at odds of $6.80 and some idiot (me) went the early crow declaring it. Should've known better as choked down and was retired from race
R2#4 Ninegrandsons, talking of trial form this bloke just flies. Ran last mile in 2.01.0 at the trials which is unheard of in this class so if he decides to put it together should win. Barring mistakes the only danger is #1 Im Chilled so play the quin for something. The other chances all come off handicaps and in 2100 stands if something half decent leads it is a mathematical impossibility to make up the ground out wide. Don't break the bank in this race though as horse is a fruit loop
1st $2.70, did everything right this evening and smashed them
R3#5 Farmersntradies, went enormous in Tatlow final (went heaps better than #7 Did It Alone who just beat him home), then backed up Monday and smashed an average lot where they walked home in 61 but appeals as one of those 2yos that didn't have the speed to compete over short trips but as he just keeps grinding the 2100 suits a lot better. You know he won't shirk the task so be having something on and standing him out into 6,7,8 in the quin
1st $2.30, once he found the front it was time to get in the queue, 5,6 quin paid $7
R5#2 Just Don't Be Cruel, too bad to be true first up when raced very flat all race and also hung on every turn and I am sure the Strathfieldsaye boys have spent time sorting him out. Showed excellent gate speed at the trials and the horse he trialled similarly to simply flew at Ballarat. Well worth another chance on the basis that first up was just an aberration. Will probably know as soon as the mobile pulls away whether we are on the horse who raced flat and hung or whether the real one turns up
1st $3.70, got the front, walked em and staggered in. Never again but take the win all the same
and for those keen enough
R8#5 Forest Babe, just miles better than these and sometimes see these start silly odds in the last. Should be $1.20 or shorter but with people looking for value to get out it might pay something silly like $1.40 and that is akin to stealing. Just keep an eye out if watching as it won't lose
Brained em, 1st $1.30
Might have a go at picking my own Quaddie (in races I like, not the ones the TAB dictates me to take)
Race 1 - 1,4,7,9
Race 2 - 1,4
Race 3 - 5,6,8
Race 5 - 2,4
Take for $2 = $96
Collect $399.75
Race 1 - 1,4,7,9
Race 2 - 12
Race 3 - 5,6,8
Race 5 - 2,4
No good obviously if the other one got up!!
Take for $1 = $24
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Harness Tips - Friday May 28
Posting a few here but only confident with one of them and that is Cuttheattitude but will be a good thing's price
Cobram, few here that are worth an EW ticket. No standouts amongst them
R2#3 Always Lacking - drive on it last time was "Lacking" something that's for sure, the fav #2 looks mighty hard to beat but definitely one to include in multiples
"Lacks" ability, bloody disgraceful UNP, #2 won race as alluded to in post @ $2.70
R3#3 Art Of Reba - wasn't the best drive last time either taking off 4 wide when the steam went on but did box on well when had every right to lie down
Just fair, thought it should have beaten them 2nd
R4#3 Catch Your Breath - trialled well prior to first run back in hot race when a well beaten last. Has good gate speed and if can cross the pole early has a good hope
Good win, 1st $5.30
R5#1 Global Village - no star but draws to get the type of run he loves and always a hope when that happens
Found his race, short trip and good draw 1st $4.00
Running Double on races 4,5 paid $37.80
Melton
R2#1 Cuttheattitude - smashed the track record at Cobram by a couple of seconds (about 30 metres) and looks certain to lead again and would be gobsmacked if anything could come wide and beat him. Price is the major worry as reckon $1.60 will be about right
Smashed em but was a good thing's price 1st $1.50
R4#13 David Hercules - WA visitor and don't think I have ever seen a horse win easier than he did first up in Vic (albeit against dead set dingos). Draws the car park so hard to be confident but should give some value because of that and given an even tempo I really like him
1st $2.40 Got gifted the front and a procession after that, smashed into $2.40 on TAB (I took $4.25 fixed this morning)
R8#10 Beach Melody - sit/sprint type so draw is probably better than drawing 4,5,6 or 7 and would probably start shorter from those barriers. Has been slaughtered by the driver at past 2 starts in reverse fashion (took off a mile too early at Bendigo then missed the boat at Kilmore). I still believe she is the best horse in the race and if she is close enough at the 400 the fav better look out as she will charge home
2nd, best run in the race by a mile and went round at $7.50, was very unlucky with winner being able to drop to pegs at bell when another runner broke or else it would have had to death seat in the 28 qtr down the back instead of having the cold sit
Couple at a bit of value
R1#12 Charleys Dream - struck a red hot field, has a bad draw and is stepping up from claiming class which would normally result in having no hope but has been simply arrogant at past 2 starts and may be silly odds here
Narrow but emphatic win 1st $6.50
R5#1 Ghadasbest - been a shade disappointing after looking a star juvenile but past couple have been good. Draws to get a gun run over sprint trip and these races can sometimes just be dominated by pegs runners so a 1x2 bet should almost be a bet to nothing
UNP, every hope, just outclassed
Best Lay - R3#1 Zoro (has no hope if it tries to lead, walked and sprinted home at Charlton then sat back and came over the top in a 29.9 last qtr at Kilmore)
Led and was gone at the 300, traded about $3 at the jump
Cobram, few here that are worth an EW ticket. No standouts amongst them
R2#3 Always Lacking - drive on it last time was "Lacking" something that's for sure, the fav #2 looks mighty hard to beat but definitely one to include in multiples
"Lacks" ability, bloody disgraceful UNP, #2 won race as alluded to in post @ $2.70
R3#3 Art Of Reba - wasn't the best drive last time either taking off 4 wide when the steam went on but did box on well when had every right to lie down
Just fair, thought it should have beaten them 2nd
R4#3 Catch Your Breath - trialled well prior to first run back in hot race when a well beaten last. Has good gate speed and if can cross the pole early has a good hope
Good win, 1st $5.30
R5#1 Global Village - no star but draws to get the type of run he loves and always a hope when that happens
Found his race, short trip and good draw 1st $4.00
Running Double on races 4,5 paid $37.80
Melton
R2#1 Cuttheattitude - smashed the track record at Cobram by a couple of seconds (about 30 metres) and looks certain to lead again and would be gobsmacked if anything could come wide and beat him. Price is the major worry as reckon $1.60 will be about right
Smashed em but was a good thing's price 1st $1.50
R4#13 David Hercules - WA visitor and don't think I have ever seen a horse win easier than he did first up in Vic (albeit against dead set dingos). Draws the car park so hard to be confident but should give some value because of that and given an even tempo I really like him
1st $2.40 Got gifted the front and a procession after that, smashed into $2.40 on TAB (I took $4.25 fixed this morning)
R8#10 Beach Melody - sit/sprint type so draw is probably better than drawing 4,5,6 or 7 and would probably start shorter from those barriers. Has been slaughtered by the driver at past 2 starts in reverse fashion (took off a mile too early at Bendigo then missed the boat at Kilmore). I still believe she is the best horse in the race and if she is close enough at the 400 the fav better look out as she will charge home
2nd, best run in the race by a mile and went round at $7.50, was very unlucky with winner being able to drop to pegs at bell when another runner broke or else it would have had to death seat in the 28 qtr down the back instead of having the cold sit
Couple at a bit of value
R1#12 Charleys Dream - struck a red hot field, has a bad draw and is stepping up from claiming class which would normally result in having no hope but has been simply arrogant at past 2 starts and may be silly odds here
Narrow but emphatic win 1st $6.50
R5#1 Ghadasbest - been a shade disappointing after looking a star juvenile but past couple have been good. Draws to get a gun run over sprint trip and these races can sometimes just be dominated by pegs runners so a 1x2 bet should almost be a bet to nothing
UNP, every hope, just outclassed
Best Lay - R3#1 Zoro (has no hope if it tries to lead, walked and sprinted home at Charlton then sat back and came over the top in a 29.9 last qtr at Kilmore)
Led and was gone at the 300, traded about $3 at the jump
Harness Tips - Thursday May 27
Scraping the bottom of the barrel here as really struggled to find anything all day, best is the quinella
Maryborough
R6 - QUINELLA 2,8 (Brushgrovemachbest, Muckinbar Lady)
2 should roll straight to the front and hoping they drive the 8 three pegs and with the long run home and deep sprint lane should have ample time to run into the quin
Ballarat
R1#13 Savannah Way, going extremely well but is its own worst enemy making mistakes and can't afford any errors off 20m in a 2200m stand but that sums up the meeting if its my best bet ....
Maryborough
R6 - QUINELLA 2,8 (Brushgrovemachbest, Muckinbar Lady)
2 should roll straight to the front and hoping they drive the 8 three pegs and with the long run home and deep sprint lane should have ample time to run into the quin
Ballarat
R1#13 Savannah Way, going extremely well but is its own worst enemy making mistakes and can't afford any errors off 20m in a 2200m stand but that sums up the meeting if its my best bet ....
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Harness Racing Drivers - Generation Y
Harness Racing in Victoria has been dominated by the likes of Gavin Lang, Chris Alford, Kerryn Manning, Jodi Quinlan, Justice brothers, John Caldow, Brian Gath, etc for a long time now and thought it would be a good time to voice an opinion on the new breed of drivers coming through.
Like to keep these things positive so going to concentrate on 3 of the stars of the newer breed
Greg Sugars - I jumped on the wagon early and used to spend ages defending him a couple of years back when all and sundry wanted to bag him when a few "quite" drives went pear shaped. Can remember being shot down on the Betfair forum for stating that in time he could be the best driver I have seen. Strange that when I read it now that a few who were quick to bag me then are now spruiking him as a star. Thats another story but he has a special knack of making horses travel for him and his ability to judge speed is what sets him apart. Horses rarely pull when he drives them and he can also get lazy ones to travel on the bit, is the best driver going around currently bar none and has been for a while actually. If he was a jockey, his national profile would be enormous but he could walk into most pubtabs Australia wide and not be recognised.
Nathan Jack - either very good or very bad but gets unfairly maligned in my opinion as doesn't get it wrong too often, but there isn't much in between with Nathan though and punters tend to remember the bad ones. Reminds me very much of Brian Gath in that he is aggressive which can lead to some slaughter jobs but also results in wins on a few that shouldn't. Is also very good at getting horses out from the mobile or trailing through from the 2nd row (as evidenced by drive on Broadways Best in Vicbred final). I love backing leaders and therefore like Nathan as if it should lead, it will with Nathan driving it. Still makes a few errors when driving from behind but I watched him drive Rocknrolla last week and he cruised up outside the leaders at the 400 and he just sat there until the top of the straight before going for her knowing he had the leaders covered any time he wanted. Doubt he would have sat up until recently
David Moran - horses run for this young bloke and that is something you just cannot teach. Is also very well schooled or does a lot of form study as tends to finish up in the right place a lot of times (too many times to be coincidental). Still don't have a large sample to make a definitive opinion but from what I have seen, he is head and shoulders above any other claiming driver currently
Like to keep these things positive so going to concentrate on 3 of the stars of the newer breed
Greg Sugars - I jumped on the wagon early and used to spend ages defending him a couple of years back when all and sundry wanted to bag him when a few "quite" drives went pear shaped. Can remember being shot down on the Betfair forum for stating that in time he could be the best driver I have seen. Strange that when I read it now that a few who were quick to bag me then are now spruiking him as a star. Thats another story but he has a special knack of making horses travel for him and his ability to judge speed is what sets him apart. Horses rarely pull when he drives them and he can also get lazy ones to travel on the bit, is the best driver going around currently bar none and has been for a while actually. If he was a jockey, his national profile would be enormous but he could walk into most pubtabs Australia wide and not be recognised.
Nathan Jack - either very good or very bad but gets unfairly maligned in my opinion as doesn't get it wrong too often, but there isn't much in between with Nathan though and punters tend to remember the bad ones. Reminds me very much of Brian Gath in that he is aggressive which can lead to some slaughter jobs but also results in wins on a few that shouldn't. Is also very good at getting horses out from the mobile or trailing through from the 2nd row (as evidenced by drive on Broadways Best in Vicbred final). I love backing leaders and therefore like Nathan as if it should lead, it will with Nathan driving it. Still makes a few errors when driving from behind but I watched him drive Rocknrolla last week and he cruised up outside the leaders at the 400 and he just sat there until the top of the straight before going for her knowing he had the leaders covered any time he wanted. Doubt he would have sat up until recently
David Moran - horses run for this young bloke and that is something you just cannot teach. Is also very well schooled or does a lot of form study as tends to finish up in the right place a lot of times (too many times to be coincidental). Still don't have a large sample to make a definitive opinion but from what I have seen, he is head and shoulders above any other claiming driver currently
And I thought Collingwood supporters were bad
Courtesy of ESPN
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5218267
PHILADELPHIA -- A 21-year-old New Jersey man pleaded guilty Tuesday to vomiting on another spectator and his 11-year-old daughter in the stands during a Philadelphia Phillies game.
Matthew Clemmens, of Cherry Hill, N.J., pleaded guilty to one count each of simple assault, disorderly conduct and harassment for his conduct during an April 14 Phillies-Nationals game at Citizens Bank Park.
Clemmens stuck his fingers down his throat and vomited on Michael Vangelo, an off-duty Easton police captain, and one of Vangelo's daughters after Clemmens' companion was ejected from the park, assistant district attorney Patrick Doyle said.
Vangelo's 15-year-old daughter asked the pair to stop the profanity, and Vangelo complained to security that Clemmens' friend was spitting, with some of it hitting his 11-year-old daughter, Doyle said.
After the friend was ejected, Clemmens was sitting alone behind the Vangelos when he answered his cell phone and said, "I need to do what I need to do. I'm going to get sick," the prosecutor said.
Clemmens then put his fingers down his throat and threw up on the father, with vomit splashing onto Vangelo's younger daughter, Doyle said.
He then punched the father several times in the head before other fans in the stands subdued him, the prosecutor said. He screamed expletives at the crowd as he was led out of the park, Doyle said.
Clemmens' mug shot showed him with a swollen black eye, and authorities acknowledged he was hit as he was being subdued. No one else was charged in the case.
In exchange for Clemmens' guilty pleas, charges including reckless endangerment and corruption of minors were dropped.
Doyle said the Vangelos were satisfied with the case's resolution and plan to attend Clemmens' sentencing, which Family Court Judge Kevin Dougherty scheduled for July 30. Sentencing guidelines call for Clemmens to get probation, Doyle said.
Dressed in a navy suit and accompanied by his parents, the defendant appeared nervous as the charges against him were read. He did not address the judge beyond quietly replying, "Yes," as the description of events was read.
Public defender Richard Hark said his client has had no prior run-ins with the law and his behavior, which outraged fans in Philadelphia and beyond, was out of character.
"It's probable he consumed too much alcohol," Hark said, adding that Clemmens only turned 21 in March. "It's not a justification for his behavior, just an explanation."
Neither Clemmens nor his parents would comment as they left the courthouse.
Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5218267
PHILADELPHIA -- A 21-year-old New Jersey man pleaded guilty Tuesday to vomiting on another spectator and his 11-year-old daughter in the stands during a Philadelphia Phillies game.
Matthew Clemmens, of Cherry Hill, N.J., pleaded guilty to one count each of simple assault, disorderly conduct and harassment for his conduct during an April 14 Phillies-Nationals game at Citizens Bank Park.
Clemmens stuck his fingers down his throat and vomited on Michael Vangelo, an off-duty Easton police captain, and one of Vangelo's daughters after Clemmens' companion was ejected from the park, assistant district attorney Patrick Doyle said.
Vangelo's 15-year-old daughter asked the pair to stop the profanity, and Vangelo complained to security that Clemmens' friend was spitting, with some of it hitting his 11-year-old daughter, Doyle said.
After the friend was ejected, Clemmens was sitting alone behind the Vangelos when he answered his cell phone and said, "I need to do what I need to do. I'm going to get sick," the prosecutor said.
Clemmens then put his fingers down his throat and threw up on the father, with vomit splashing onto Vangelo's younger daughter, Doyle said.
He then punched the father several times in the head before other fans in the stands subdued him, the prosecutor said. He screamed expletives at the crowd as he was led out of the park, Doyle said.
Clemmens' mug shot showed him with a swollen black eye, and authorities acknowledged he was hit as he was being subdued. No one else was charged in the case.
In exchange for Clemmens' guilty pleas, charges including reckless endangerment and corruption of minors were dropped.
Doyle said the Vangelos were satisfied with the case's resolution and plan to attend Clemmens' sentencing, which Family Court Judge Kevin Dougherty scheduled for July 30. Sentencing guidelines call for Clemmens to get probation, Doyle said.
Dressed in a navy suit and accompanied by his parents, the defendant appeared nervous as the charges against him were read. He did not address the judge beyond quietly replying, "Yes," as the description of events was read.
Public defender Richard Hark said his client has had no prior run-ins with the law and his behavior, which outraged fans in Philadelphia and beyond, was out of character.
"It's probable he consumed too much alcohol," Hark said, adding that Clemmens only turned 21 in March. "It's not a justification for his behavior, just an explanation."
Neither Clemmens nor his parents would comment as they left the courthouse.
Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press
Harness Tips - Wednesday May 26
Ararat
R4#1 Longtan Luke, looks certain leader and has a bit on them. $1.60 the min price I will take though
For anybody looking for a bit of value, have something on
R3#5 Paper Trail, 3 wide the trip last time and finished close up. Form is very average so don't break the bank
R4#1 Longtan Luke, looks certain leader and has a bit on them. $1.60 the min price I will take though
For anybody looking for a bit of value, have something on
R3#5 Paper Trail, 3 wide the trip last time and finished close up. Form is very average so don't break the bank
State of Origin - Game 1 (Wayne's World)
Courtesy of a mate of mine:
NSW ambushed Qld last year in game 3 with a more aggressive approach which worked really well. According to the papers in NSW, this will not change. Of course Qld will be more prepared this time.
It is absolutely miserable here atm, and expected to stay the same until game time. Of course you have the best 34 players in Australia playing but handling will still be a problem. I think this will be more of an issue for NSW than Qld. NSW have picked forwards which love to offload. Watmough, Lewis, Creagh, and Waterhouse all love the 2nd phase play.
This weather all but nullifies that out of their game. You can’t win an origin game in the wet by trying to get your arms free every tackle to try and pass. They have erred especially due to the weather by not picking Gallen. This places more pressure on the NSW front row. Weyman and Perry are in good form, but Weyman especially will not play long minutes and then we have Brett White…..the softest forward ever to play Origin! On the qld side we have Scott(???) and the legend Civ. With Shillington, and Taylor on the bench I believe their go forward is better than NSW. Thaiaday and Myles in career best form is just another bonus for Qld
Go to the backs…..why NSW would pick a pivot out of position is beyond me. I was praying for Tahu to be injured simply because it meant Lyon would go to the centres where he belongs and Barrett or Finch would be no 6, Lyon and Noddy v Lockyer and Thurston, with Cronk on the bench……wow…….
Then we have the backline. Gidley……he did nothing last year yet they retain him, as captain, and cast off the best player in the NSW team to play off the wing. Dumb Dumb Dumb. Hayne will not see enough ball…again…..Slater is 10 times the maggot but 10 times the player Gidley is.
Inglis will have his hands full IF Tahu shows up. He has played some blinders but if he plays like he did v sharks in round 3 then Inglis will eat him up. Boyd will have issues against Hayne, and NSW will have to try and exploit this advantage. Morris has to try and play clean v Folau because at the 1st chance Folau will pretend to be a WWE wrestler and feign an injury in a bomb situation and get a penalty….union deserve him!
Weather is predicted to be miserable, so handling is vital. Gotta keep it tight, no dumb offloads, and be patient for points. Total id say will be 30-32.
Prediction and tips….qld to win. NSW getting all the money, and 2 years ago home ground would have been an advantage, but not any more. I hope to hell NSW win but I can’t see it happening. Take qld, and for more value take them 1-12 if you want. Unlikely in these conditions a team will run away with the game.
Take Folau and Thaiaday to be last try scorer. Qld always score last in Origin games….its almost ritualistic.
Also, put $5 on a real smokey…tryless match @ $101……not the dumbest 100/1 shot in the world, and the conditions will suit. Has happened once in Origin history……
Just my 2 cents
NSW ambushed Qld last year in game 3 with a more aggressive approach which worked really well. According to the papers in NSW, this will not change. Of course Qld will be more prepared this time.
It is absolutely miserable here atm, and expected to stay the same until game time. Of course you have the best 34 players in Australia playing but handling will still be a problem. I think this will be more of an issue for NSW than Qld. NSW have picked forwards which love to offload. Watmough, Lewis, Creagh, and Waterhouse all love the 2nd phase play.
This weather all but nullifies that out of their game. You can’t win an origin game in the wet by trying to get your arms free every tackle to try and pass. They have erred especially due to the weather by not picking Gallen. This places more pressure on the NSW front row. Weyman and Perry are in good form, but Weyman especially will not play long minutes and then we have Brett White…..the softest forward ever to play Origin! On the qld side we have Scott(???) and the legend Civ. With Shillington, and Taylor on the bench I believe their go forward is better than NSW. Thaiaday and Myles in career best form is just another bonus for Qld
Go to the backs…..why NSW would pick a pivot out of position is beyond me. I was praying for Tahu to be injured simply because it meant Lyon would go to the centres where he belongs and Barrett or Finch would be no 6, Lyon and Noddy v Lockyer and Thurston, with Cronk on the bench……wow…….
Then we have the backline. Gidley……he did nothing last year yet they retain him, as captain, and cast off the best player in the NSW team to play off the wing. Dumb Dumb Dumb. Hayne will not see enough ball…again…..Slater is 10 times the maggot but 10 times the player Gidley is.
Inglis will have his hands full IF Tahu shows up. He has played some blinders but if he plays like he did v sharks in round 3 then Inglis will eat him up. Boyd will have issues against Hayne, and NSW will have to try and exploit this advantage. Morris has to try and play clean v Folau because at the 1st chance Folau will pretend to be a WWE wrestler and feign an injury in a bomb situation and get a penalty….union deserve him!
Weather is predicted to be miserable, so handling is vital. Gotta keep it tight, no dumb offloads, and be patient for points. Total id say will be 30-32.
Prediction and tips….qld to win. NSW getting all the money, and 2 years ago home ground would have been an advantage, but not any more. I hope to hell NSW win but I can’t see it happening. Take qld, and for more value take them 1-12 if you want. Unlikely in these conditions a team will run away with the game.
Take Folau and Thaiaday to be last try scorer. Qld always score last in Origin games….its almost ritualistic.
Also, put $5 on a real smokey…tryless match @ $101……not the dumbest 100/1 shot in the world, and the conditions will suit. Has happened once in Origin history……
Just my 2 cents
Monday, May 24, 2010
Monday May 24
French Open
Richard Gasquet v Andy Murray
Backing Gasquet at $2.78 and hoping to green up late in first set. Has a few injury worries but has been playing well recently so believe he should start well.
Alexandra Dulgheru v Lucie Hradecka
Backing Dulgheru in straight sets @ $1.54, excellent record on clay considering her ranking and has beaten a number of top 10 players recently (Safina, Dementieva, Li, Zheng) whilst Hradecka has lost in the first round at past 4 tournaments
Richard Gasquet v Andy Murray
Backing Gasquet at $2.78 and hoping to green up late in first set. Has a few injury worries but has been playing well recently so believe he should start well.
Alexandra Dulgheru v Lucie Hradecka
Backing Dulgheru in straight sets @ $1.54, excellent record on clay considering her ranking and has beaten a number of top 10 players recently (Safina, Dementieva, Li, Zheng) whilst Hradecka has lost in the first round at past 4 tournaments
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