Must admit that I had serious doubts that anybody could win by level staking on a single selection on every race but a few things have occurred recently that are starting to sway me a tad. Obviously my results on here are building my confidence a tad but I have also been watching a gallops punter do the same thing on the Betfair forum over the past few weeks and results are very, very good.
The gallops thread can be found here:
http://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/25353661/OFFICIAL..._SEA-THE-STARS...Bet_on_every_race_and_win_Challenge?pg=9
I am going to give it another 100+ races before even contemplating it as a successful method but looking at my results to date, I would be extremely happy with a 20% ROI after 200 races as that would equate to a profit of $4000 based on a standard $100 win bet and over $15,000 for the year based on the average number of Tasmanian meetings per annum and obviously the base bet could be amended based on what profit goal/risk you are willing to take. Another thing to take into account is that my figures are based on SuperTab returns and to be honest, I easily average more than 10% higher prices by betting on Betfair by knowing what horses are going to get smashed late.
My statistics to date are as follows:
Races 93
Winners 49
Return $144.48*
Profit $51.48
Strike Rate 52.7%
ROI 55.3%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
It is insane to believe that a return of 55% is achievable long term but I will keep plugging along and see how it finishes long term as much to my surprise it might actually have some merit. If so, an example may be to have a base bet size of $500 per race which based on a 20% ROI would give a net profit of $70,000pa based on average number of races in Tasmania per year. Probably only need these statistics to show a 10% ROI using SuperTab as well with other options out there to maximise returns such as Betfair and some corps offering top TAB price
Then again, I put around 25-30 hours a week into each Tasmanian meeting so you would want that type of return given the time involved. Still think taking heaps of exotics is the best way to go as heaps of mug money in those pools in Tasmania but I'm happy to follow whatever the statistics show
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
Friday Tips
Yarra Valley
R8#3 Art Shadow, hoping for around $2.0
Melton
R1#2 Babyitsu, looks very well graded, won't lead but simply looks too good
R8#3 Art Shadow, hoping for around $2.0
Melton
R1#2 Babyitsu, looks very well graded, won't lead but simply looks too good
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Launceston Preview, Sunday August 8
For something different I am adding a speed map of sorts just trying to ascertain who I think will lead each race (together with what I believe is the percentage chance of that horse actually leading) which may be of assistance to some
Race 1
#1 Aapenon should lead quite easily, can see Alma Grant working to the death at some stage and not much else as far as moves in the race go. Leader = Aapenon 90%
Race 2
Very important to the chances of the fav here as huge price differential if she doesn't lead. Both #4 and #5 have gatespeed but wouldn't cross #3 Riverina Chelsea which leaves #2 Lady Eleanor as the query runner as has led at Mount Gambier in the past. The pole walks out. Leader = Riverina Chelsea 75% (EDIT: fav is a late scr which really makes the leader a raffle with little known about #2 who is first up from Mount Gambier). Can see Sanreos being straight around them midrace to the death though
Race 3
#1 Barooga Billy has a ton of gatespeed and should lead clearly and can't see a ton of pressure to be honest, #5 Topoftheclouds has gatespeed but goes best with a sit so they won't bust him early. Leader = Barooga Billy 90%
Race 4
Struggling a bit to sort this race out with none of the inside 5 runners being noted leaders, #6 Saab Quality would have led easily a few runs back but hasn't shown the same speed lately. Wouldn't be surprised to see Gareth open up #7 Biggernbettermax early and try and clear them. Leader = #7 Biggernbettermax 33% (EDIT: notice that Barrie is driving BBM which changes things a little as no driver in Tassie can get them out of the gate like Gareth, also wound his price out a little in the market from $2.5 to $3.2)
Race 5
#1 Majestic Emperor looks the leader and it isn't a very quick front row at all to be honest. #7 Sky Tower will come to death early in the race. Leader = Majestic Emperor 100%
Race 6
#1 Kristins Niadh has good speed and unless one of the first starters can fly early she looks a certain leader. Leader = Kristins Niadh 90%
Race 7
#8 King Of Bling crossed an almost identical field from gate 7 last start so can see no reason why he won't lead again. Pretty sure #1 Forty Two Grand will retain leaders back. leader = King Of Bling 100%
Race 8
Struggling to sort this out but forced to pick one would opt for #4 Trooper Jack but it has handed up a couple of times recently so no degree of confidence. Going through the front row - 1 has gatespeed, 2 is sit sprint, 3 go forward but just fair gatespeed, 5 no gatespeed. Finding it very hard to be honest and even 3 wouldn't totally shock to see work to the front. Leader = Trooper Jack 35%
Race 9
#4 Lillans Girl has shown exceptional speed at past 2 starts and reckon she gets over again here. #2 Hot Rock Express will be trying to keep her out but can't see that happening. Leader = Lillans Girl 80%
Race 10
#1 Little Miss Madam had led at her past 3 starts and looks to have the speed to do the same here. You would also imagine that with her more fancied stablemate drawn 9 that they would want to lead as well and stop any dangers from leading!! #3 Rock The Pocket does have some gatespeed but doubt it has enough to cross. Leader = Little Miss Madam 90%
Try to finish the rest this evening as only got half the program completed so far and may also slightly amend some of the early prices quoted. Keep in mind that I try to assess the market at around 116 to 117% to fall into line with the TAB as opposed to most media markets which are close to 130% the majority of the time
Race 1
1 AAPENNON 2.2
2 JUSTABRITTMORE 21
3 TEARSOFACLOWN 34
4 CINDYS BABE 21
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
6 TOP PREMIER 7
7 MISTOVER FIZZ 15
8 ALMA GRANT 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LINDYS TIME 51
10 DENVERS BOY (Em 1)
11 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
12 ANILADA 34
13 THE DETONATOR 51
#1 Aapenon has been very good running 2nd at past 2 starts and draws to lead and win here as there doesn't look to be a ton of speed outside of him and if gets a soft lead should get home. #8 Alma Grant is a good mare but a tad concerned as to how much work she will have to do from the gate but definitely won't shirk the task. #6 Top Premier has run some cheeky races of late and with an ounce of luck could surprise. Both #7 Mistover Fizz and #11 Woodland Chapel have been running on well lately and definite place hopes here. Outside of them, #4 Cindys Babe is the next best.
Ratings 1/8/6/7,11/4
Race 2
1 DAVPASS 15
2 LADY ELEANOR 7
3 RIVERINA CHELSEA late scr
4 REAL RESERVE 34
5 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
6 THABELA BRIOSO 34
7 BIG TOWN BABE 34
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 1.8
10 SANREOS 4
What started out as a pretty good race for this class of mares with the scratchings of the 2 top picks so its a pretty thin race now. #9 Doves Patch has been well supported in decent races in Victoria and just keeps burning punters by breaking and also pulling very hard in its races. Obviously has ability though so is the one to beat even from the bad gate. #2 Lady Eleanor is the query runner being first up from Mount Gambier with formline reading just fair but the Yole stable have a good record with new stable additions and she did lead when she won her last race so is also a bit of a query as to the fav getting to the pegs, market is the best indicator to her chances. #10 Sanreos burnt punters (me included) last time when she galloped and blew the start so forget last run but at her best would be a big chance in this. Not many other hopes outside of them but #1 Davpass did run a much improved race last time from the same draw so is worth including in the exotics
Ratings 9/10/2/1,5/6,7
Race 3
1 BAROOGA BILLY 1.7
2 FERGUS MACCOOL 3.5
3 BARKERS RUN 101
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 67
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER 34
7 PADDY MY BOY 101
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 17
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 41
10 BOOZY ROUGE 7
11 PROVENANCE 67
Pretty thin race as far as chances go with #1 Barooga Billy being the top pick as looks certain to lead and he has a ton of ability with his manners being the only flaw in his make up. #2 Fergus Maccool is a pretty good 3yo though with form around some nice horses but reckon he will struggle to beat Billy if he leads as expected. #10 Boozy Rouge appreciated the drop in class to bolt in last week but this is much tougher so reckon he might struggle to win but is definitely still the 3rd pick. Place hopes only go to #5 Topoftheclouds, #8 Harleken Wized and #9 Jack Leslie who may improve for the new stable
Ratings 1/2/10/5,8,9
Race 4
1 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
2 SAFINA LEIS 7
3 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
4 DIEBERCHARGED 26
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
6 SAAB QUALITY 7
7 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 3.2
8 CARDINAL TUCKER 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 7
10 PEACE CHIEF 5
The well bred #7 Biggernbettermax won like a good horse last start after copping plenty of early pressure and this is no harder so have him as a clear top pick despite the poor draw. #10 Peace Chief is crying out to win a race and has plenty of ability so is the main danger if driven with a tad more patience than past couple. #9 Iden Justasmyrk would be shorter from any other gate but really find it hard to see him winning from this draw as normally goes best when allowed to bowl along near the front. #6 Saab Quality has disappointed at past few and makes me wonder if he has had enough for this preparation but at his top would go mighty close here. #2 Safina Leis never runs a bad race but is probably better suited to her own sex. Place chances also go to #8 Cardinal Tucker who ran 2nd to Biggernbettermax last time but had his chance so place only from this draw, #5 Legerwood Creek and #4 Dieberdevil both won weak races last time but are a must for exotics and #3 El Jays Modeena beat home Artifice last start who came out and won Sunday night in Hobart so can't be overlooked completely either.
Ratings 7/10/6,9/2/3,5,8/4
Race 5
1 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 3.5
2 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 13
3 JEFFERSON NZ 21
4 GRACIE HART 6
5 ULOS 13
6 TOPUP 13
7 SKY TOWER 2.2
Tricky race this with #7 Sky Tower looking very well graded due to the conditions of the race but his normal racing pattern can leave him susceptible to being dive bombed late so wouldn't rush into silly odds but still can't see him finishing worse than 2nd. #1 Majestic Emperor led and gave plenty of cheek last time and draws to lead again and one of those 2 should win on ability but they might just bring each other undone. If that occurs, #4 Gracie Hart draws to get a soft run and might be the one as she won a red hot race last time when the 2 favs in Cullens Angel (since won at Melton in 1.54.8) and Nobeer Nocheer both worked too hard. The rest all have some hope if the favs overdo it, #6 Topup is flying but up a lot in grade here, #2 Albert Jones won a strong claimer last time and draws to get a great run and both #5 Ulos and #3 Jefferson could surprise at their top
Ratings 7/1/4/2,5,6/3
Race 6
1 KRISTINS NIADH 3.8
2 PEYTON POPPI 34
3 TWENTY ONE GRAND 34
4 HEARTHROB 34
5 HAMISH SANZ 6
6 PARKMOUNT LADY 34
7 BREZHNEV LEIS 17
8 BINABELLE 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 3.8
10 PUT MBACK 6
11 AZARENKA LEIS 13
Strange decision to put a race with 4 first starters as a leg of the quaddie but should be used to that by now! Anyway, it looks as if it can be narrowed down to a few hopes. Changed my mind a few times in this and ultimately settled on #9 Klebnikova leis was super impressive winning Sunday night in her first glimpse of form since being badly checked at devonport one night so might have her confidence back and despite the bad draw is the one to beat as is the best horse in the race and just needs a touch of luck. #1 Kristins Niadh has been very good at past 3 starts running placings and draws to get every possible here, the only downside is she failed badly at Devonport when she led as an odds on favourite a few runs back so have to be a bit wary. #10 Put Mback has been very competitive at first 2 starts inluding a win against a good field, not quite as well drawn this time but still must be respected. #5 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of dash but is very honest and the 2200m trip should suit better than the mile so do rate him a legitimate hope as well. One of that quartet should win. #11 Azarenka Leis does have ability but also does plenty wrong so can't afford any mistakes to be competitive in this and of the first starters #8 Binabelle is clearly the best performed at the trials and is also very well related so watch any market moves closely with her. #7 Brezhnev Leis was disappointing prior to a spell and prefer to wait until he shows something
Ratings 9/1/5,10/8,11
Race 7
1 FORTY TWO GRAND 5
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 26
3 LOADED FRANCO 7
4 PALOONA 41
5 LOADED TO RUN 8
6 GLENWOOD JASPER scr
7 KING ALBERT 21
8 KING OF BLING 2.8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 26
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 15
11 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($5,000) 9
Very keen on #8 King Of Bling to cross this lot early and lead all the way. Led from gate 7 in a similar field last start and copped plenty of pressure but battled on to run a clear 2nd a long way in front of the rest in a 1.59 mile rate for 2200m. The horse that sat on his back and beat him came out and won easily again last Sunday so formline looks good too. Also like where #1 Forty Two Grand is drawn as should be following KOB and he hasn't had much luck at all recently so going better than form suggests. #3 Loaded Franco was very one paced first up but did keep coming to run 3rd after looking gone on the turn so run was okay. Thought that #5 Loaded To Run was disappointing last time but the drive wasn't the best and was a funnily run race so may pay to forgive. #11 Bonnie Wee Laddie needs to be driven cold but given the right run can certainly figure if the leaders overdo it and if taking exotics I would also include #7 King Albert who was well driven to place last time, #9 For My Mum Maggie who should be 3 pegs and #10 The Apprentice who was fair at first Tasmanian start
Ratings 8/1/3/5,11/7,9,10
Race 8
1 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
2 BAD BOY VINNY 13
3 BALENCIA 4.5
4 TROOPER JACK 17
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY 9
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA scr
7 OUR SIR LEW 67
8 OUR SIR THOMAS 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 11
10 SMART PAY NZ 3.2
11 HARLEY FELLA 13
12 CURRYNROSES 11
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 101
Pretty even race and have settled on the Victorian #10 Smart Pay to get away with it. Was well backed when resuming from a short break and bolted in at Mildura last week and did look like a fair horse early last campaign prior to form dropping off a tad. #3 Balencia never runs a bad race with her toughness and from this gate is going to be in the firing line throughout, #5 Prettyboytoby is a frustrating horse in that has to be driven for luck but certainly has the ability to win. The rest are almost impossible to split and all comes down to luck in running with only #7 Our Sir Lew and #8 Our Sir Thomas having no chance
Ratings 10/3/5/1,2,4,9,11,12
Race 9
1 LOADED BOMBER 13
2 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 8
3 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 13
4 LILLANS GIRL 6
5 SARAH ROLAND 21
6 HES NO SAINT 6
7 THE ACES 5
8 AUNTYLIZ 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WHAT A SQUALL 21
10 INCHBYINCH 6
Pretty average race for the maiden 3 year olds and is also restricted to novice drivers so not an enticing combination to jump into betting wise. #7 The Aces was very unlucky in a similar race 2 starts back and then ran a serviceable race from barrier 13 against a better field last time so is in the mix. #6 Hes No Saint has beaten The Aces home at past couple so won't be much between them here. #4 Lillans Girl has shown very good early speed at past couple and over the mile trip here if she led would be in the finish somewhere. #10 Inchbyinch has been disappointing but certainly has the ability to win, #2 Hot Rock Express would come right into play if he could lead but have my doubts on that front. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 4 starts and hasn't produced much as yet but must be showing something to justify the support. Also cannot rule out either #1 Loaded Bomber who is first up for 6 months and has drawn the pole in a mile race so is a chance if going okay, #3 Criminal Lockdown won a trial in very average time but obviously isn't hopeless, #5 Sarah Roland has little tactical speed but keeps plugging home and #9 What A Squall has been fair in trials. No idea to be honest.
Ratings 7/4,6,10/2,8/1,3/9
Race 10
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7
2 OUR LAST KNIGHT 21
3 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 3.5
4 DENVERS BOY 5
5 MASTERAMA 8
6 TENT PEG 26
7 GO GO CISCO scr
8 UNRIVALLED 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 4.5
Reverse order points race and as always with these almost impossible to assess. #3 Rock The Pocket has only had 1 run in 2 years and didn't flatter but has since trialled well enough to win this but not keen on taking shortish odds unless they have actually shown it on the track but has to go on top. #9 James Mackenzie has had one Tasmanian start and was supported in a stronger race than this when he galloped at the start so must respect on that alone. #8 Unrivalled has beaten better than these previously and despite past couple being very average has to be respected as he has actually won 5 races himself and the rest of the field have won 2 races between them. #4 Denvers Boy has been okay at past couple and won't find an easier race. #1 Little Miss Madam has gatespeed and if gets a very soft lead could figure. Bit of a watch on #5 Masterama as well who I think is first up for the Yole stable and whilst Tasmanian form is nothing short of atrocious he did show glimpses of ability when in Victoria so monitor betting. Very difficult race to sort out and no degree of confidence at all though.
Ratings 3/9/4/8/1,5?
Race 1
#1 Aapenon should lead quite easily, can see Alma Grant working to the death at some stage and not much else as far as moves in the race go. Leader = Aapenon 90%
Race 2
Very important to the chances of the fav here as huge price differential if she doesn't lead. Both #4 and #5 have gatespeed but wouldn't cross #3 Riverina Chelsea which leaves #2 Lady Eleanor as the query runner as has led at Mount Gambier in the past. The pole walks out. Leader = Riverina Chelsea 75% (EDIT: fav is a late scr which really makes the leader a raffle with little known about #2 who is first up from Mount Gambier). Can see Sanreos being straight around them midrace to the death though
Race 3
#1 Barooga Billy has a ton of gatespeed and should lead clearly and can't see a ton of pressure to be honest, #5 Topoftheclouds has gatespeed but goes best with a sit so they won't bust him early. Leader = Barooga Billy 90%
Race 4
Struggling a bit to sort this race out with none of the inside 5 runners being noted leaders, #6 Saab Quality would have led easily a few runs back but hasn't shown the same speed lately. Wouldn't be surprised to see Gareth open up #7 Biggernbettermax early and try and clear them. Leader = #7 Biggernbettermax 33% (EDIT: notice that Barrie is driving BBM which changes things a little as no driver in Tassie can get them out of the gate like Gareth, also wound his price out a little in the market from $2.5 to $3.2)
Race 5
#1 Majestic Emperor looks the leader and it isn't a very quick front row at all to be honest. #7 Sky Tower will come to death early in the race. Leader = Majestic Emperor 100%
Race 6
#1 Kristins Niadh has good speed and unless one of the first starters can fly early she looks a certain leader. Leader = Kristins Niadh 90%
Race 7
#8 King Of Bling crossed an almost identical field from gate 7 last start so can see no reason why he won't lead again. Pretty sure #1 Forty Two Grand will retain leaders back. leader = King Of Bling 100%
Race 8
Struggling to sort this out but forced to pick one would opt for #4 Trooper Jack but it has handed up a couple of times recently so no degree of confidence. Going through the front row - 1 has gatespeed, 2 is sit sprint, 3 go forward but just fair gatespeed, 5 no gatespeed. Finding it very hard to be honest and even 3 wouldn't totally shock to see work to the front. Leader = Trooper Jack 35%
Race 9
#4 Lillans Girl has shown exceptional speed at past 2 starts and reckon she gets over again here. #2 Hot Rock Express will be trying to keep her out but can't see that happening. Leader = Lillans Girl 80%
Race 10
#1 Little Miss Madam had led at her past 3 starts and looks to have the speed to do the same here. You would also imagine that with her more fancied stablemate drawn 9 that they would want to lead as well and stop any dangers from leading!! #3 Rock The Pocket does have some gatespeed but doubt it has enough to cross. Leader = Little Miss Madam 90%
Try to finish the rest this evening as only got half the program completed so far and may also slightly amend some of the early prices quoted. Keep in mind that I try to assess the market at around 116 to 117% to fall into line with the TAB as opposed to most media markets which are close to 130% the majority of the time
Race 1
1 AAPENNON 2.2
2 JUSTABRITTMORE 21
3 TEARSOFACLOWN 34
4 CINDYS BABE 21
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
6 TOP PREMIER 7
7 MISTOVER FIZZ 15
8 ALMA GRANT 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LINDYS TIME 51
10 DENVERS BOY (Em 1)
11 WOODLAND CHAPEL 11
12 ANILADA 34
13 THE DETONATOR 51
#1 Aapenon has been very good running 2nd at past 2 starts and draws to lead and win here as there doesn't look to be a ton of speed outside of him and if gets a soft lead should get home. #8 Alma Grant is a good mare but a tad concerned as to how much work she will have to do from the gate but definitely won't shirk the task. #6 Top Premier has run some cheeky races of late and with an ounce of luck could surprise. Both #7 Mistover Fizz and #11 Woodland Chapel have been running on well lately and definite place hopes here. Outside of them, #4 Cindys Babe is the next best.
Ratings 1/8/6/7,11/4
Race 2
1 DAVPASS 15
2 LADY ELEANOR 7
3 RIVERINA CHELSEA late scr
4 REAL RESERVE 34
5 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
6 THABELA BRIOSO 34
7 BIG TOWN BABE 34
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 1.8
10 SANREOS 4
What started out as a pretty good race for this class of mares with the scratchings of the 2 top picks so its a pretty thin race now. #9 Doves Patch has been well supported in decent races in Victoria and just keeps burning punters by breaking and also pulling very hard in its races. Obviously has ability though so is the one to beat even from the bad gate. #2 Lady Eleanor is the query runner being first up from Mount Gambier with formline reading just fair but the Yole stable have a good record with new stable additions and she did lead when she won her last race so is also a bit of a query as to the fav getting to the pegs, market is the best indicator to her chances. #10 Sanreos burnt punters (me included) last time when she galloped and blew the start so forget last run but at her best would be a big chance in this. Not many other hopes outside of them but #1 Davpass did run a much improved race last time from the same draw so is worth including in the exotics
Ratings 9/10/2/1,5/6,7
Race 3
1 BAROOGA BILLY 1.7
2 FERGUS MACCOOL 3.5
3 BARKERS RUN 101
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 67
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 MOST HAPPY JASPER 34
7 PADDY MY BOY 101
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 17
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 41
10 BOOZY ROUGE 7
11 PROVENANCE 67
Pretty thin race as far as chances go with #1 Barooga Billy being the top pick as looks certain to lead and he has a ton of ability with his manners being the only flaw in his make up. #2 Fergus Maccool is a pretty good 3yo though with form around some nice horses but reckon he will struggle to beat Billy if he leads as expected. #10 Boozy Rouge appreciated the drop in class to bolt in last week but this is much tougher so reckon he might struggle to win but is definitely still the 3rd pick. Place hopes only go to #5 Topoftheclouds, #8 Harleken Wized and #9 Jack Leslie who may improve for the new stable
Ratings 1/2/10/5,8,9
Race 4
1 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
2 SAFINA LEIS 7
3 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
4 DIEBERCHARGED 26
5 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
6 SAAB QUALITY 7
7 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 3.2
8 CARDINAL TUCKER 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 7
10 PEACE CHIEF 5
The well bred #7 Biggernbettermax won like a good horse last start after copping plenty of early pressure and this is no harder so have him as a clear top pick despite the poor draw. #10 Peace Chief is crying out to win a race and has plenty of ability so is the main danger if driven with a tad more patience than past couple. #9 Iden Justasmyrk would be shorter from any other gate but really find it hard to see him winning from this draw as normally goes best when allowed to bowl along near the front. #6 Saab Quality has disappointed at past few and makes me wonder if he has had enough for this preparation but at his top would go mighty close here. #2 Safina Leis never runs a bad race but is probably better suited to her own sex. Place chances also go to #8 Cardinal Tucker who ran 2nd to Biggernbettermax last time but had his chance so place only from this draw, #5 Legerwood Creek and #4 Dieberdevil both won weak races last time but are a must for exotics and #3 El Jays Modeena beat home Artifice last start who came out and won Sunday night in Hobart so can't be overlooked completely either.
Ratings 7/10/6,9/2/3,5,8/4
Race 5
1 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 3.5
2 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 13
3 JEFFERSON NZ 21
4 GRACIE HART 6
5 ULOS 13
6 TOPUP 13
7 SKY TOWER 2.2
Tricky race this with #7 Sky Tower looking very well graded due to the conditions of the race but his normal racing pattern can leave him susceptible to being dive bombed late so wouldn't rush into silly odds but still can't see him finishing worse than 2nd. #1 Majestic Emperor led and gave plenty of cheek last time and draws to lead again and one of those 2 should win on ability but they might just bring each other undone. If that occurs, #4 Gracie Hart draws to get a soft run and might be the one as she won a red hot race last time when the 2 favs in Cullens Angel (since won at Melton in 1.54.8) and Nobeer Nocheer both worked too hard. The rest all have some hope if the favs overdo it, #6 Topup is flying but up a lot in grade here, #2 Albert Jones won a strong claimer last time and draws to get a great run and both #5 Ulos and #3 Jefferson could surprise at their top
Ratings 7/1/4/2,5,6/3
Race 6
1 KRISTINS NIADH 3.8
2 PEYTON POPPI 34
3 TWENTY ONE GRAND 34
4 HEARTHROB 34
5 HAMISH SANZ 6
6 PARKMOUNT LADY 34
7 BREZHNEV LEIS 17
8 BINABELLE 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 3.8
10 PUT MBACK 6
11 AZARENKA LEIS 13
Strange decision to put a race with 4 first starters as a leg of the quaddie but should be used to that by now! Anyway, it looks as if it can be narrowed down to a few hopes. Changed my mind a few times in this and ultimately settled on #9 Klebnikova leis was super impressive winning Sunday night in her first glimpse of form since being badly checked at devonport one night so might have her confidence back and despite the bad draw is the one to beat as is the best horse in the race and just needs a touch of luck. #1 Kristins Niadh has been very good at past 3 starts running placings and draws to get every possible here, the only downside is she failed badly at Devonport when she led as an odds on favourite a few runs back so have to be a bit wary. #10 Put Mback has been very competitive at first 2 starts inluding a win against a good field, not quite as well drawn this time but still must be respected. #5 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of dash but is very honest and the 2200m trip should suit better than the mile so do rate him a legitimate hope as well. One of that quartet should win. #11 Azarenka Leis does have ability but also does plenty wrong so can't afford any mistakes to be competitive in this and of the first starters #8 Binabelle is clearly the best performed at the trials and is also very well related so watch any market moves closely with her. #7 Brezhnev Leis was disappointing prior to a spell and prefer to wait until he shows something
Ratings 9/1/5,10/8,11
Race 7
1 FORTY TWO GRAND 5
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 26
3 LOADED FRANCO 7
4 PALOONA 41
5 LOADED TO RUN 8
6 GLENWOOD JASPER scr
7 KING ALBERT 21
8 KING OF BLING 2.8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 26
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 15
11 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($5,000) 9
Very keen on #8 King Of Bling to cross this lot early and lead all the way. Led from gate 7 in a similar field last start and copped plenty of pressure but battled on to run a clear 2nd a long way in front of the rest in a 1.59 mile rate for 2200m. The horse that sat on his back and beat him came out and won easily again last Sunday so formline looks good too. Also like where #1 Forty Two Grand is drawn as should be following KOB and he hasn't had much luck at all recently so going better than form suggests. #3 Loaded Franco was very one paced first up but did keep coming to run 3rd after looking gone on the turn so run was okay. Thought that #5 Loaded To Run was disappointing last time but the drive wasn't the best and was a funnily run race so may pay to forgive. #11 Bonnie Wee Laddie needs to be driven cold but given the right run can certainly figure if the leaders overdo it and if taking exotics I would also include #7 King Albert who was well driven to place last time, #9 For My Mum Maggie who should be 3 pegs and #10 The Apprentice who was fair at first Tasmanian start
Ratings 8/1/3/5,11/7,9,10
Race 8
1 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
2 BAD BOY VINNY 13
3 BALENCIA 4.5
4 TROOPER JACK 17
5 PRETTYBOYTOBY 9
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA scr
7 OUR SIR LEW 67
8 OUR SIR THOMAS 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 11
10 SMART PAY NZ 3.2
11 HARLEY FELLA 13
12 CURRYNROSES 11
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 101
Pretty even race and have settled on the Victorian #10 Smart Pay to get away with it. Was well backed when resuming from a short break and bolted in at Mildura last week and did look like a fair horse early last campaign prior to form dropping off a tad. #3 Balencia never runs a bad race with her toughness and from this gate is going to be in the firing line throughout, #5 Prettyboytoby is a frustrating horse in that has to be driven for luck but certainly has the ability to win. The rest are almost impossible to split and all comes down to luck in running with only #7 Our Sir Lew and #8 Our Sir Thomas having no chance
Ratings 10/3/5/1,2,4,9,11,12
Race 9
1 LOADED BOMBER 13
2 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 8
3 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 13
4 LILLANS GIRL 6
5 SARAH ROLAND 21
6 HES NO SAINT 6
7 THE ACES 5
8 AUNTYLIZ 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WHAT A SQUALL 21
10 INCHBYINCH 6
Pretty average race for the maiden 3 year olds and is also restricted to novice drivers so not an enticing combination to jump into betting wise. #7 The Aces was very unlucky in a similar race 2 starts back and then ran a serviceable race from barrier 13 against a better field last time so is in the mix. #6 Hes No Saint has beaten The Aces home at past couple so won't be much between them here. #4 Lillans Girl has shown very good early speed at past couple and over the mile trip here if she led would be in the finish somewhere. #10 Inchbyinch has been disappointing but certainly has the ability to win, #2 Hot Rock Express would come right into play if he could lead but have my doubts on that front. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 4 starts and hasn't produced much as yet but must be showing something to justify the support. Also cannot rule out either #1 Loaded Bomber who is first up for 6 months and has drawn the pole in a mile race so is a chance if going okay, #3 Criminal Lockdown won a trial in very average time but obviously isn't hopeless, #5 Sarah Roland has little tactical speed but keeps plugging home and #9 What A Squall has been fair in trials. No idea to be honest.
Ratings 7/4,6,10/2,8/1,3/9
Race 10
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7
2 OUR LAST KNIGHT 21
3 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 3.5
4 DENVERS BOY 5
5 MASTERAMA 8
6 TENT PEG 26
7 GO GO CISCO scr
8 UNRIVALLED 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 4.5
Reverse order points race and as always with these almost impossible to assess. #3 Rock The Pocket has only had 1 run in 2 years and didn't flatter but has since trialled well enough to win this but not keen on taking shortish odds unless they have actually shown it on the track but has to go on top. #9 James Mackenzie has had one Tasmanian start and was supported in a stronger race than this when he galloped at the start so must respect on that alone. #8 Unrivalled has beaten better than these previously and despite past couple being very average has to be respected as he has actually won 5 races himself and the rest of the field have won 2 races between them. #4 Denvers Boy has been okay at past couple and won't find an easier race. #1 Little Miss Madam has gatespeed and if gets a very soft lead could figure. Bit of a watch on #5 Masterama as well who I think is first up for the Yole stable and whilst Tasmanian form is nothing short of atrocious he did show glimpses of ability when in Victoria so monitor betting. Very difficult race to sort out and no degree of confidence at all though.
Ratings 3/9/4/8/1,5?
Monday, August 2, 2010
Rating the Tracks - Top 5
Based on a number of criteria as a punter and a veiwer this is the top 5 I arrived at:
1. Launceston
2. Ballarat
3. Geelong
4. Cobram
5. Pinjarra
Interesting that 3 of the 5 nominated do not have sprint lanes and no mention either of the new "super tracks" at Melton and Menangle that both got more carried away with horses running fast times than the actual racing side of things. Tracks such as Bendigo and Melton started out with high cambered velodrome type turns but both now resemble one lane highways on the fence most of the time after the tracks "bedded down".
Launceston was one of the original 1000m tracks built in Australia yet still puts most of the new fangled tracks to shame. The race distances are ideal also at 1680m, 2200m and 2680m and the only way to describe it is fair in all aspects which is all punters and participants want. If you want to run standing start races, the optimum distance is around 2600m as anything less is just too short and anything further is too long yet a lot of new tracks simply cannot cater for this distance.
The sprint lane is a moot point in my books as its one of the biggest myths ever that it gives more horses a chance when in reality the reverse happens. Sprint lanes actually lessen the chances in a race and I defy anybody to prove otherwise. They also take away some of the tactical aspect of driving which is a real shame.
As a punter, I was always happy to back a horse who would be taking the short way home on the pegs knowing that the price you paid for taking that route was that you may not get out of the pocket. Now they get to have their cake and eat it too!! Cyclists estimate that the slipstreaming effect means the trailing cyclist does 30% less work than the leader and with sprint lanes they not only get the benefit of the trail but they are now guaranteed a run as well. They are the best thing since sliced bread for punters too as it encourages horses to hand up to a favoured runner which just means that there are minimal winning hopes almost immediately from the start. You rarely see horses with a chance hand up the lead at tracks with no sprint lane which by extension creates races with an even tempo and gives more horses a chance.
Menangle is a strange one, I really think the size of the track causes problems with the racing as more horses get held up there than on an 800m track. The mindset of drivers seems to be to not pull out until the 400 with the long run home which means the 3rd quarter is usually slowish and nothing tends to drop off as they haven't worked too hard from the 800-400m mark which means those being held up don't get a run. Strangely enough, its probably the one track that does need a sprint lane.
1. Launceston
2. Ballarat
3. Geelong
4. Cobram
5. Pinjarra
Interesting that 3 of the 5 nominated do not have sprint lanes and no mention either of the new "super tracks" at Melton and Menangle that both got more carried away with horses running fast times than the actual racing side of things. Tracks such as Bendigo and Melton started out with high cambered velodrome type turns but both now resemble one lane highways on the fence most of the time after the tracks "bedded down".
Launceston was one of the original 1000m tracks built in Australia yet still puts most of the new fangled tracks to shame. The race distances are ideal also at 1680m, 2200m and 2680m and the only way to describe it is fair in all aspects which is all punters and participants want. If you want to run standing start races, the optimum distance is around 2600m as anything less is just too short and anything further is too long yet a lot of new tracks simply cannot cater for this distance.
The sprint lane is a moot point in my books as its one of the biggest myths ever that it gives more horses a chance when in reality the reverse happens. Sprint lanes actually lessen the chances in a race and I defy anybody to prove otherwise. They also take away some of the tactical aspect of driving which is a real shame.
As a punter, I was always happy to back a horse who would be taking the short way home on the pegs knowing that the price you paid for taking that route was that you may not get out of the pocket. Now they get to have their cake and eat it too!! Cyclists estimate that the slipstreaming effect means the trailing cyclist does 30% less work than the leader and with sprint lanes they not only get the benefit of the trail but they are now guaranteed a run as well. They are the best thing since sliced bread for punters too as it encourages horses to hand up to a favoured runner which just means that there are minimal winning hopes almost immediately from the start. You rarely see horses with a chance hand up the lead at tracks with no sprint lane which by extension creates races with an even tempo and gives more horses a chance.
Menangle is a strange one, I really think the size of the track causes problems with the racing as more horses get held up there than on an 800m track. The mindset of drivers seems to be to not pull out until the 400 with the long run home which means the 3rd quarter is usually slowish and nothing tends to drop off as they haven't worked too hard from the 800-400m mark which means those being held up don't get a run. Strangely enough, its probably the one track that does need a sprint lane.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Betting in every race update
Very average tipping night this evening (6 of 11 sounds okay but most were blatantly obvious) stopping 2 x $1.30 pops but still only lost 20c. Guess thats a half decent sign though when you have a shocker and just about break square. At least my best bet won @ $2.20 which was some solace
Current as at August 1, 2010
Races 93
Winners 49
Return $144.48*
Strike Rate 52.7%
ROI 55.3%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
Further examining the data:
Leaders: 35
Winners: 29
Return: $74.38
Strike Rate 82.8%
ROI 112.5%
Non Leaders: 58
Winners: 20
Return: $70.10
Strike Rate 34.5%
ROI 20.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday August 1
R1#4 Boozy Rouge 1st $2.50
R2#7 Harbhajan 1st $1.60
R3#6 Saturday Nights 1st $1.20
R4#7 Hydehurst Boy UNP
R5#11 Loaded To Run UNP
R6#7 Quastor Centurion 2nd
R7#7 Cosmic Under Fire 1st $1.80
R8#1 Benediction 2nd
R9#4 Safe And Smart 1st $2.20
R10#4 Our Zellweger UNP
R11#1 Artifice 1st $1.50
Invest $11 Return $10.80
Current as at August 1, 2010
Races 93
Winners 49
Return $144.48*
Strike Rate 52.7%
ROI 55.3%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
Further examining the data:
Leaders: 35
Winners: 29
Return: $74.38
Strike Rate 82.8%
ROI 112.5%
Non Leaders: 58
Winners: 20
Return: $70.10
Strike Rate 34.5%
ROI 20.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday August 1
R1#4 Boozy Rouge 1st $2.50
R2#7 Harbhajan 1st $1.60
R3#6 Saturday Nights 1st $1.20
R4#7 Hydehurst Boy UNP
R5#11 Loaded To Run UNP
R6#7 Quastor Centurion 2nd
R7#7 Cosmic Under Fire 1st $1.80
R8#1 Benediction 2nd
R9#4 Safe And Smart 1st $2.20
R10#4 Our Zellweger UNP
R11#1 Artifice 1st $1.50
Invest $11 Return $10.80
Sunday Tips
Hobart all races (full preview in previous post). Race 1 is TOTE Tas only, can also be accessed via Betfair accounts using the TOTE option
R1#4 Boozy Rouge
R2#7 Harbhajan
R3#6 Saturday Nights
R4#7 Hydehurst Boy
R5#11 Loaded To Run
R6#7 Quastor Centurion
R7#7 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#1 Benediction
R9#4 Safe And Smart
R10#4 Our Zellweger
R11#1 Artifice
Best Bet
R9#4 Safe And Smart
Best Value
R5#11 Loaded To Run
Best Roughies
R4#8 The Bullionaire
R10#9 Little Vance Lot
R11#3 Arkabe Jewel
Quaddie - $64 for 100%
1,3,4,5,7,8,9,12
11,12
7
2,5,7,8
Also a little 4 leg all up
r1-4,8
r3-6,7
r5-11,12
r9-4,10,11
for $2.50 cost $60
R1#4 Boozy Rouge
R2#7 Harbhajan
R3#6 Saturday Nights
R4#7 Hydehurst Boy
R5#11 Loaded To Run
R6#7 Quastor Centurion
R7#7 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#1 Benediction
R9#4 Safe And Smart
R10#4 Our Zellweger
R11#1 Artifice
Best Bet
R9#4 Safe And Smart
Best Value
R5#11 Loaded To Run
Best Roughies
R4#8 The Bullionaire
R10#9 Little Vance Lot
R11#3 Arkabe Jewel
Quaddie - $64 for 100%
1,3,4,5,7,8,9,12
11,12
7
2,5,7,8
Also a little 4 leg all up
r1-4,8
r3-6,7
r5-11,12
r9-4,10,11
for $2.50 cost $60
Hobart Preview, Sunday August 1
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 11
2 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 4
3 THABELA BRIOSO 15
4 BOOZY ROUGE 3.2
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 21
6 ASHINAGA 34
7 UNRIVALLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET 6
9 FANTASY ROCKS 6.5
10 MEANDPOP 34
Terribly difficult race to start the evening and have settled on #4 Boozy Rouge as the top pick as has been competitive in much stronger races than this of late but with the junior driver lift looks extremely well placed. Doesn't have a ton of gatespeed but his class edge should ensure he goes mighty close. #2 Sweetchillyfilly is no star but is very honest and can see her being in the right place in the run so looks a safe EW bet. #8 Bertils Rocket must be driven for luck and if he gets the right run in transit will be storming late. #9 Fantasy Rocks has gone okay in both Tasmanian starts at similar level and will be around the mark again. #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race to this a few runs back and draws to get that type of run again so not without a chance either. #2 Thabella Brioso is a query resuming from a spell but was very disappointing last time in and would need to improve but its worth noting that she beat Lady Octavia at her last win so obviously has ability when right so monitor betting
Ratings 4/2/8/9/1/3
Race 2
1 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
2 NEW YORK FELLA 11
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 6
4 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
5 GUERRERO 17
6 OUR VILLAGE 101
7 HARBHAJAN 1.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 7
9 IM LE FREAK NZ 21
#7 Harbhajan has destroyed the field at both Tasmanian runs but its worth noting that this race has a lot more depth than what he has previously met and from the extreme draw I wouldn't be taking silly odds. He is still a clear top pick though and should win with even luck. #3 Bayfield High may be the surprise packet as he looks the leader and has run a couple of cheeky races when leading in the past so looms as the main threat. #8 Buddahs Best Mate ran his best race in ages last week and will be around the mark based on that despite the draw as is well up to this at his best. #2 New York Fella is always around the mark somewhere and from this draw is some hope also. The rest are all quite even with only #6 Our Village totally out of calculations
Ratings 7/3/8/2/1,3,4,5,9
Race 3
1 JOEY MERCURY NZ scr
2 HERNANDES 201
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 81
4 WILLY PLAY 34
5 WILLIE WINALOT 9
6 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
7 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SAFINA LEIS 9
9 BLACKPORTNLACE 201
#6 Saturday Nights has won like a very good horse at both runs and looks a good race again for him here. Whilst he has led at both starts he has shown some versatility in that he zoomed home in 56.9 off a slow speed at first start and then raced away after copping a bit of midrace pressure last time. His half brother in Babyitsu can do work in his races as well so despite the wide draw he looks the winner. #7 Iden Justasmyrk has a great record when driven by Nat Emery with 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 drives so despite Saturday Nights beating him clearly last time I still see him as the primary danger as I expect him to perform better with Nat back on. I was a little disappointed in the run of Willie Winalot last time as had every chance and just plugged home but he does have ability and has yet to run a bad one and this is a very thin race. Outside of that trio, the filly #8 Safina Leis has been chasing home the 2 favs recently but hasn't enjoyed much luck so if the breaks come might run a bit of a race. Nothing else is a chance but #4 Willy Play is a clear 5th pick
Ratings 6/7/5,8/4
Race 4
1 BAJARDO RIVER 5
2 BUNJIL BOY 17
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 BROUGHTON 9
5 JET BLACK FLYER 11
6 UNRIVALLED (Em 1) 51
7 HYDEHURST BOY 3.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 13
9 CULLENS COUNT NZ 15
10 PADDY MY BOY 51
11 MOUNTAIN MOMMA scr
12 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
13 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 15
Undoubtedly one of the hardest races I have ever seen to work out and nearly every horse has a legitimate chance of winning. I settled on #7 Hydehurst Boy as the top pick as was ultra impressive first up leading all the way when heavily backed and despite the last quarter being a pedestrian 32.0 he did it on his ear and the previous 3 fractions were all good. He promised a bit early in his career but rarely delivered but maybe the penny has dropped but isn't going to find it easy here from the draw as there is speed under him so if he goes forward will have to work. #1 Bajardo River is back in the draw and also has very good gatespeed so appeals as the leader so will get her chance. #12 Harleken Wized was a good run first up in Tassie when 3 wide without cover in a 58.7 last half and never shirked the task so despite the gate is still a live hope. #3 Liskens Gift is a staying type who never gets beaten far and from this draw may surprise at odds. There are a couple of good sit/sprinters in the race in #4 Broughton and #8 The Bullionaire and the race may just pan out to suit them as well with a lot of speed off the front. Also cannot rule out #5 Jet Black Flyer who resumes but has his share of ability, #9 Cullens Count is also a rough hope as was unlucky last start when the run closed in the straight in the same race that #13 Pearls From Heaven was a beaten favourite in who had every hope and will find it tough from here. Even now I haven't mentioned either #2 Bunjil Boy and #10 Mountain Mumma who both ran a placing in similar grade last week. Just one of those races!
Ratings 7/1,12/3,4,8/5,9/2,10,13
Race 5
1 TROOPER JACK 7
2 OUR SIR LEW 51
3 PHANTOM JASPER 11
4 CANCELLARA 15
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 BAD BOY VINNY 26
7 ONTICK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TEEJAY FELLA 15
9 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
10 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 41
11 LOADED TO RUN 4.5
12 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.8
13 IM LE FREAK NZ (Em 1)
Barrier draw has evened this race right up with the 2 top picks drawing the worst barriers. I am keen on #11 Loaded To Run to upset the 3yo here though, he was shunted 4 wide when should have won clearly last time and just got nabbed on the line as it was so with better luck here is a huge chance. The 3yo Lugovoi Leis is another of the bumper Tassie 3yo crop (Gedlee, Udoit, Saturday Nights, Thirsty Mach) taking all before him as his sophomore season winds down but is getting up in grade a tad and never keen on backing 3yo horses giving a start to more seasoned horses but you simply cannot overlook his formline. Reckon one of the 2 of them will win despite the draw. #1 Trooper Jack is sure to have admirers as has the speed to utilise the draw and whilst he did enjoy a good run to win last start, they did run good time. #3 Phantom Jasper is tough and goes forward so if Trooper Jack relinqueshes the lead again he may be the beneficiary which would bring him into play. #9 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed slightly at past couple but would be right in the finish on best form and there are a number of horses with some ability who I am discounting due to their barrier but all are place hopes with the right run - #4 Cancellara, #5 Spendit, #6 Bad Boy Vinny, #7 Ontick and #8 Teejay Fella
Ratings 11/12/1,3/9/4,5,8/6,7
Race 6
1 SEMOSE TWENTY 7
2 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD 34
4 POKER STORM 13
5 KARALTA WIZARD 13
6 JOHNNYACE 21
7 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 17
9 PUT MBACK 21
10 DUSTY KALENA 67
11 IDEN NOSHOT 67
The time honoured Breeders Plate for the 2yo boys looks at the mercy of the unbeaten #7 Quastor Centurion who is unbeaten in 8 career starts. Take little notice of the narrow win last week when he led as is never impressive when he leads but never lets them past when he does. His win in the Dandy Patch was awesome and he should repeat the dose here. #1 Semose Twenty should have run 2nd to Quastor in the Dandy Patch and then boxed on well for 3rd after working last time and from this gate is the obvious danger. Both #4 Poker Storm and #5 Karalta Wizard ran 2nd to the fav at their last start which is an obvious form reference and #6 Johnnyace hasn't had any luck at all recently but faces a task from this draw. #9 Put Mback had a dream run when winning on debut and find this tougher from the draw and will also keep an eye on the market re #8 Winewomenandsong who is a Christian Cullen half brother to a Breeders Crown placegetter so certainly has the genetics.
Ratings 7/1/4,5/6,8?,9/3
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($6,000) 15
2 RONNIE RAT 4.5
3 ULOS 26
4 ALPINE ART NZ 34
5 SKY TOWER 4.5
6 JILLIBY RIO 21
7 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3.5
8 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 5.5
9 JEFFERSON NZ 51
10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 13
Look to be 4 major players here and after changing my mind a few times have settled on #7 Cosmic Under Fire who got a well deserved win last time out. With only 4 runners off the front and 6 off 20 metres it will be a major bonus for whichever horse begins best from the handicap as will be in a striking position early so I do have a healthy respect for both #5 Sky Tower who was dead set slaughtered last time running a 28.9 sectional from the 1200-800m mark so completely forgets his last run and #8 Yuschenko Leis just continues to run a good race every week so can never be discounted. #2 Ronnie Rat has really stepped up this season and generally flies the stand so he should give them something to catch. #1 Waterloo Bay rises from claiming grade but is going well and also loves the stand and #10 Gettysburgh Address benefitted from some questionable drives last time but was still good enough to take advantage
Ratings 7/2,5,8/1,10
Race 8
1 BENEDICTION 1.5
2 SUNRISE LADY 17
3 KRISTINS NIADH 8
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 17
5 GUN FILLY 101
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 67
7 ZIVAS MAGIC 201
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 FLASHY ICON 26
10 AZARENKA LEIS 21
#1 Benediction has taken all before her this season with 5 wins and 3 seconds from her 8 starts and draws to lead and win again. She fell in at Launceston last week but prepared to overlook that run as I believe Gareth went far too slowly on her and it purely turned into a 400m sprint instead of a race. She should lead and win. #8 Stone Skipper ran 2nd to her in the Bandbox final and draws to follow the fav all the way here so is the obvious danger as does possess a very quick sprint. #3 Kristins Niadh ran a very close 2nd to Benediction last week where it developed into a dash home but I doubt she will get the same sort of trip from this gate but has proven that there isn't much between her and Benediction so must be included. Outside of that trio, place prospects go to #2 Sunrise Lady who ran a good race on debut and if she could manage to jump in behind the fav early would be a real place chance. #4 Klebnikova Leis hasn't quite lived up to her early promise but never runs a bad one, #10 Azarenka Leis has certainly improved of late and isn't the worst and #9 Flashy Icon also went okay on debut and may sneak into the exotics. Find it hard to see anything else getting into the mix
Ratings 1/8/3/2,4,10/9
Race 9
1 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 67
2 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
3 MY SCARLETT 26
4 SAFE AND SMART 2.5
5 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
6 WOODLAND CHAPEL 8
7 GUNBOWER JACK 67
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GO GO CISCO 21
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 13
10 HONEST ART 4.5
11 AAPENNON 4.5
12 DREAMON DONNY 67
There appears to be 4 standout chances here with #4 Safe And Smart being the top pick as looks certain to find the pegs and in both his Tasmanian runs he has done a bit of work and never shirked the issue so if he finds the pegs is certain to be the one to beat. #10 Honest Art is as honest as they come and well suited in this class, #11 Aapenon was poorly driven first up from a break then ran a terrific race last week when 2nd to Barooga Billy where they finished off in 27.9 and he never lost ground and would be a lot shorter if had drawn better. #6 Woodland Chapel looms as the only other winning hope as has really improved of late and last couple of runs have been very good. Am a shade worried about the gate but must go in exotics. The rest are only place prospects with #8 Go Go Cisco and #9 Mistover Fizz capable of running a hole with the right run
Ratings 4/10,11/6/8,9
Race 10
1 TWOGRANDAHAND 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
3 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ 3.5
5 LOADED FRANCO 6
6 TOPUP 7
7 PAUL ALBERT 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BILLABONG BERTIE 4.5
9 LITTLE VANCE LOT 11
Sees the resumption to racing of last years top filly #4 Our Zellweger who resumes from a 14 month layoff which makes it hard to be confident with the race. At her best she would lead and beat these and whilst she has gone okay at the trials its hard to know exactly where she is at. Due to her class though she goes on top. #8 Billabong Bertie ran last at his previous start but totally forgive that run as thats the only place he was going to run after holding the lead in that class and he is much better suited back to this grade. #5 Loaded Franco is also resuming from a lengthy break and does have ability and the stable is on fire so watch any betting moves closely. Both #1 Twograndahand and #6 Topup are opportunist types who can certainly win with the right run and I also concede some chance to both #2 Forty Two Grand and #9 Little Vance Lot
Ratings 4/8/1,5,6/2,9
Race 11
1 ARTIFICE 2.5
2 TARA LASSIE 41
3 ARKABE JEWEL 9
4 MODERN LOBELL scr
5 TZU TZU PETALS scr
6 SARAH ROLAND 41
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HES NO SAINT (Em 1) 34
9 DAYTIME JERRY 4
10 KING OF JEWELS 13
11 FOXYCLOUT 15
12 ARK RAID 11
13 THE ACES 15
Have changed my mind completely here, originally had Artifice as an odds on fav but had another look at her run on Wednesday night and she was terribly disappointing after getting a soft lead in a mile race and I would want minimum $2.50 prior to backing her. Its okay to say that the filly that beat her in Launceston (Ashkalini) is a good horse in her own right but the thing that concerns me is that El Jays Modeena also ran past her and I would want good odds to back her in this. The positives are that she will be fitter for the run back and looks certain to get a soft lead again so must go on top but it is a bit of a moment of truth for her. #9 Daytime Jerry hasn't been far away in some good 3yo races lately and if there is any chinks in the armour of the fav he will be the one to find them. There is a bit of a watch on #10 King Of Jewels who has fair form in the Riverina but has only won 2 of 35 starts which is a tad concerning but must be kept safe. There are numerous place chances in this race actually, #12 Ark Raid ran a good race on debut, #4 Modern Lobell ran a giant race doing it tough at Launceston last time, #3 Arkabe Jewel lacks early dash but has plenty of aility, #11 Foxyclout has been thereabouts of late and #13 The Aces was extremely unlucky in a weakish race last time
Ratings 1/9/3,4,12/10?/11,13
1 PARADIGM GIRL 11
2 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 4
3 THABELA BRIOSO 15
4 BOOZY ROUGE 3.2
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 21
6 ASHINAGA 34
7 UNRIVALLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BERTILS ROCKET 6
9 FANTASY ROCKS 6.5
10 MEANDPOP 34
Terribly difficult race to start the evening and have settled on #4 Boozy Rouge as the top pick as has been competitive in much stronger races than this of late but with the junior driver lift looks extremely well placed. Doesn't have a ton of gatespeed but his class edge should ensure he goes mighty close. #2 Sweetchillyfilly is no star but is very honest and can see her being in the right place in the run so looks a safe EW bet. #8 Bertils Rocket must be driven for luck and if he gets the right run in transit will be storming late. #9 Fantasy Rocks has gone okay in both Tasmanian starts at similar level and will be around the mark again. #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race to this a few runs back and draws to get that type of run again so not without a chance either. #2 Thabella Brioso is a query resuming from a spell but was very disappointing last time in and would need to improve but its worth noting that she beat Lady Octavia at her last win so obviously has ability when right so monitor betting
Ratings 4/2/8/9/1/3
Race 2
1 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
2 NEW YORK FELLA 11
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 6
4 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
5 GUERRERO 17
6 OUR VILLAGE 101
7 HARBHAJAN 1.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 7
9 IM LE FREAK NZ 21
#7 Harbhajan has destroyed the field at both Tasmanian runs but its worth noting that this race has a lot more depth than what he has previously met and from the extreme draw I wouldn't be taking silly odds. He is still a clear top pick though and should win with even luck. #3 Bayfield High may be the surprise packet as he looks the leader and has run a couple of cheeky races when leading in the past so looms as the main threat. #8 Buddahs Best Mate ran his best race in ages last week and will be around the mark based on that despite the draw as is well up to this at his best. #2 New York Fella is always around the mark somewhere and from this draw is some hope also. The rest are all quite even with only #6 Our Village totally out of calculations
Ratings 7/3/8/2/1,3,4,5,9
Race 3
1 JOEY MERCURY NZ scr
2 HERNANDES 201
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 81
4 WILLY PLAY 34
5 WILLIE WINALOT 9
6 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
7 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SAFINA LEIS 9
9 BLACKPORTNLACE 201
#6 Saturday Nights has won like a very good horse at both runs and looks a good race again for him here. Whilst he has led at both starts he has shown some versatility in that he zoomed home in 56.9 off a slow speed at first start and then raced away after copping a bit of midrace pressure last time. His half brother in Babyitsu can do work in his races as well so despite the wide draw he looks the winner. #7 Iden Justasmyrk has a great record when driven by Nat Emery with 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 drives so despite Saturday Nights beating him clearly last time I still see him as the primary danger as I expect him to perform better with Nat back on. I was a little disappointed in the run of Willie Winalot last time as had every chance and just plugged home but he does have ability and has yet to run a bad one and this is a very thin race. Outside of that trio, the filly #8 Safina Leis has been chasing home the 2 favs recently but hasn't enjoyed much luck so if the breaks come might run a bit of a race. Nothing else is a chance but #4 Willy Play is a clear 5th pick
Ratings 6/7/5,8/4
Race 4
1 BAJARDO RIVER 5
2 BUNJIL BOY 17
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 BROUGHTON 9
5 JET BLACK FLYER 11
6 UNRIVALLED (Em 1) 51
7 HYDEHURST BOY 3.8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 13
9 CULLENS COUNT NZ 15
10 PADDY MY BOY 51
11 MOUNTAIN MOMMA scr
12 HARLEKEN WIZED 8
13 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 15
Undoubtedly one of the hardest races I have ever seen to work out and nearly every horse has a legitimate chance of winning. I settled on #7 Hydehurst Boy as the top pick as was ultra impressive first up leading all the way when heavily backed and despite the last quarter being a pedestrian 32.0 he did it on his ear and the previous 3 fractions were all good. He promised a bit early in his career but rarely delivered but maybe the penny has dropped but isn't going to find it easy here from the draw as there is speed under him so if he goes forward will have to work. #1 Bajardo River is back in the draw and also has very good gatespeed so appeals as the leader so will get her chance. #12 Harleken Wized was a good run first up in Tassie when 3 wide without cover in a 58.7 last half and never shirked the task so despite the gate is still a live hope. #3 Liskens Gift is a staying type who never gets beaten far and from this draw may surprise at odds. There are a couple of good sit/sprinters in the race in #4 Broughton and #8 The Bullionaire and the race may just pan out to suit them as well with a lot of speed off the front. Also cannot rule out #5 Jet Black Flyer who resumes but has his share of ability, #9 Cullens Count is also a rough hope as was unlucky last start when the run closed in the straight in the same race that #13 Pearls From Heaven was a beaten favourite in who had every hope and will find it tough from here. Even now I haven't mentioned either #2 Bunjil Boy and #10 Mountain Mumma who both ran a placing in similar grade last week. Just one of those races!
Ratings 7/1,12/3,4,8/5,9/2,10,13
Race 5
1 TROOPER JACK 7
2 OUR SIR LEW 51
3 PHANTOM JASPER 11
4 CANCELLARA 15
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 BAD BOY VINNY 26
7 ONTICK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TEEJAY FELLA 15
9 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
10 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 41
11 LOADED TO RUN 4.5
12 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.8
13 IM LE FREAK NZ (Em 1)
Barrier draw has evened this race right up with the 2 top picks drawing the worst barriers. I am keen on #11 Loaded To Run to upset the 3yo here though, he was shunted 4 wide when should have won clearly last time and just got nabbed on the line as it was so with better luck here is a huge chance. The 3yo Lugovoi Leis is another of the bumper Tassie 3yo crop (Gedlee, Udoit, Saturday Nights, Thirsty Mach) taking all before him as his sophomore season winds down but is getting up in grade a tad and never keen on backing 3yo horses giving a start to more seasoned horses but you simply cannot overlook his formline. Reckon one of the 2 of them will win despite the draw. #1 Trooper Jack is sure to have admirers as has the speed to utilise the draw and whilst he did enjoy a good run to win last start, they did run good time. #3 Phantom Jasper is tough and goes forward so if Trooper Jack relinqueshes the lead again he may be the beneficiary which would bring him into play. #9 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed slightly at past couple but would be right in the finish on best form and there are a number of horses with some ability who I am discounting due to their barrier but all are place hopes with the right run - #4 Cancellara, #5 Spendit, #6 Bad Boy Vinny, #7 Ontick and #8 Teejay Fella
Ratings 11/12/1,3/9/4,5,8/6,7
Race 6
1 SEMOSE TWENTY 7
2 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
3 SMOKIN MUSTARD 34
4 POKER STORM 13
5 KARALTA WIZARD 13
6 JOHNNYACE 21
7 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 17
9 PUT MBACK 21
10 DUSTY KALENA 67
11 IDEN NOSHOT 67
The time honoured Breeders Plate for the 2yo boys looks at the mercy of the unbeaten #7 Quastor Centurion who is unbeaten in 8 career starts. Take little notice of the narrow win last week when he led as is never impressive when he leads but never lets them past when he does. His win in the Dandy Patch was awesome and he should repeat the dose here. #1 Semose Twenty should have run 2nd to Quastor in the Dandy Patch and then boxed on well for 3rd after working last time and from this gate is the obvious danger. Both #4 Poker Storm and #5 Karalta Wizard ran 2nd to the fav at their last start which is an obvious form reference and #6 Johnnyace hasn't had any luck at all recently but faces a task from this draw. #9 Put Mback had a dream run when winning on debut and find this tougher from the draw and will also keep an eye on the market re #8 Winewomenandsong who is a Christian Cullen half brother to a Breeders Crown placegetter so certainly has the genetics.
Ratings 7/1/4,5/6,8?,9/3
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($6,000) 15
2 RONNIE RAT 4.5
3 ULOS 26
4 ALPINE ART NZ 34
5 SKY TOWER 4.5
6 JILLIBY RIO 21
7 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3.5
8 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 5.5
9 JEFFERSON NZ 51
10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 13
Look to be 4 major players here and after changing my mind a few times have settled on #7 Cosmic Under Fire who got a well deserved win last time out. With only 4 runners off the front and 6 off 20 metres it will be a major bonus for whichever horse begins best from the handicap as will be in a striking position early so I do have a healthy respect for both #5 Sky Tower who was dead set slaughtered last time running a 28.9 sectional from the 1200-800m mark so completely forgets his last run and #8 Yuschenko Leis just continues to run a good race every week so can never be discounted. #2 Ronnie Rat has really stepped up this season and generally flies the stand so he should give them something to catch. #1 Waterloo Bay rises from claiming grade but is going well and also loves the stand and #10 Gettysburgh Address benefitted from some questionable drives last time but was still good enough to take advantage
Ratings 7/2,5,8/1,10
Race 8
1 BENEDICTION 1.5
2 SUNRISE LADY 17
3 KRISTINS NIADH 8
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 17
5 GUN FILLY 101
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 67
7 ZIVAS MAGIC 201
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 FLASHY ICON 26
10 AZARENKA LEIS 21
#1 Benediction has taken all before her this season with 5 wins and 3 seconds from her 8 starts and draws to lead and win again. She fell in at Launceston last week but prepared to overlook that run as I believe Gareth went far too slowly on her and it purely turned into a 400m sprint instead of a race. She should lead and win. #8 Stone Skipper ran 2nd to her in the Bandbox final and draws to follow the fav all the way here so is the obvious danger as does possess a very quick sprint. #3 Kristins Niadh ran a very close 2nd to Benediction last week where it developed into a dash home but I doubt she will get the same sort of trip from this gate but has proven that there isn't much between her and Benediction so must be included. Outside of that trio, place prospects go to #2 Sunrise Lady who ran a good race on debut and if she could manage to jump in behind the fav early would be a real place chance. #4 Klebnikova Leis hasn't quite lived up to her early promise but never runs a bad one, #10 Azarenka Leis has certainly improved of late and isn't the worst and #9 Flashy Icon also went okay on debut and may sneak into the exotics. Find it hard to see anything else getting into the mix
Ratings 1/8/3/2,4,10/9
Race 9
1 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 67
2 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
3 MY SCARLETT 26
4 SAFE AND SMART 2.5
5 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
6 WOODLAND CHAPEL 8
7 GUNBOWER JACK 67
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GO GO CISCO 21
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 13
10 HONEST ART 4.5
11 AAPENNON 4.5
12 DREAMON DONNY 67
There appears to be 4 standout chances here with #4 Safe And Smart being the top pick as looks certain to find the pegs and in both his Tasmanian runs he has done a bit of work and never shirked the issue so if he finds the pegs is certain to be the one to beat. #10 Honest Art is as honest as they come and well suited in this class, #11 Aapenon was poorly driven first up from a break then ran a terrific race last week when 2nd to Barooga Billy where they finished off in 27.9 and he never lost ground and would be a lot shorter if had drawn better. #6 Woodland Chapel looms as the only other winning hope as has really improved of late and last couple of runs have been very good. Am a shade worried about the gate but must go in exotics. The rest are only place prospects with #8 Go Go Cisco and #9 Mistover Fizz capable of running a hole with the right run
Ratings 4/10,11/6/8,9
Race 10
1 TWOGRANDAHAND 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
3 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ 3.5
5 LOADED FRANCO 6
6 TOPUP 7
7 PAUL ALBERT 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BILLABONG BERTIE 4.5
9 LITTLE VANCE LOT 11
Sees the resumption to racing of last years top filly #4 Our Zellweger who resumes from a 14 month layoff which makes it hard to be confident with the race. At her best she would lead and beat these and whilst she has gone okay at the trials its hard to know exactly where she is at. Due to her class though she goes on top. #8 Billabong Bertie ran last at his previous start but totally forgive that run as thats the only place he was going to run after holding the lead in that class and he is much better suited back to this grade. #5 Loaded Franco is also resuming from a lengthy break and does have ability and the stable is on fire so watch any betting moves closely. Both #1 Twograndahand and #6 Topup are opportunist types who can certainly win with the right run and I also concede some chance to both #2 Forty Two Grand and #9 Little Vance Lot
Ratings 4/8/1,5,6/2,9
Race 11
1 ARTIFICE 2.5
2 TARA LASSIE 41
3 ARKABE JEWEL 9
4 MODERN LOBELL scr
5 TZU TZU PETALS scr
6 SARAH ROLAND 41
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HES NO SAINT (Em 1) 34
9 DAYTIME JERRY 4
10 KING OF JEWELS 13
11 FOXYCLOUT 15
12 ARK RAID 11
13 THE ACES 15
Have changed my mind completely here, originally had Artifice as an odds on fav but had another look at her run on Wednesday night and she was terribly disappointing after getting a soft lead in a mile race and I would want minimum $2.50 prior to backing her. Its okay to say that the filly that beat her in Launceston (Ashkalini) is a good horse in her own right but the thing that concerns me is that El Jays Modeena also ran past her and I would want good odds to back her in this. The positives are that she will be fitter for the run back and looks certain to get a soft lead again so must go on top but it is a bit of a moment of truth for her. #9 Daytime Jerry hasn't been far away in some good 3yo races lately and if there is any chinks in the armour of the fav he will be the one to find them. There is a bit of a watch on #10 King Of Jewels who has fair form in the Riverina but has only won 2 of 35 starts which is a tad concerning but must be kept safe. There are numerous place chances in this race actually, #12 Ark Raid ran a good race on debut, #4 Modern Lobell ran a giant race doing it tough at Launceston last time, #3 Arkabe Jewel lacks early dash but has plenty of aility, #11 Foxyclout has been thereabouts of late and #13 The Aces was extremely unlucky in a weakish race last time
Ratings 1/9/3,4,12/10?/11,13
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