Minimising Losses and Maximising Returns

In much the same way that Tiger Woods manages to eke out a 73 or 74 despite not hitting a fairway punters must also find a way to salvage something from the inevitable bad days.

Its easy to preach that punters should never bet more than they can afford to lose or that staking levels should remain consistent to balance out the peaks and troughs but that is easier said than done for a lot of people and I find the easiest way is to minimise losses and maximise returns. Its especially hard to get your head around mentally so I thought I might share a few strategies that assist me in doing this.

Like the majority of serious punters, I keep track of my bets in a simple spreadsheet format which really helps me get around what was a major issue with me early on - that issue was chasing my losses. By keeping these records, it allows me to look at the big picture instead of taking an insular view of that particular day so if I am down $..... for the day, I will still keep my head with the knowledge that I am up by $..... over the course of the year and therefore resist the urge to break square on the day. I have just taught myself to look at the big picture.

Another huge advantage of spreadsheets is the ability to identify trends by analysing the data in a number of ways, you can via simple formulae identify exactly what bet types, venues, bet amounts, barrier positions, prices, etc work for you and what doesn't. For example, I was able to identify that betting EW just didn't allow me to maximise my returns in the same manner that a couple of alternate bet types do.

Therefore, I now don't bet each way (apart from one special circumstance that I will elaborate upon later) and back all horses on a win only basis regardless of price and then take them in a standout quinella with what I deem to be the other fancies in a race. I generally only bet in races where I think there are 4-5 chances maximum so this technique really works for me and whilst it annoys me if I back a $30 pop that runs 3rd, the data shows me that over the long run it is far more advantageous for me to stand it out in a quinella than back it each way as the quinella return generally nets me 3-4 times the EW return. I will back horses EW however IF - a race is paying 1,2 only as the quinella return in 6-7 horse fields just don't match up to the each way bet and the place dividend holds up a lot better with only the 2 divs. I will also bet EW if I like a horse a bit at value and am unsure of the race.

Another way to maximise returns is to spread the load across differing avenues, if I am having a large bet on a horse at the Tasmanian trots with smaller pools I will split the bet 5 different ways and have the same amount with SuperTab, NSW TAB, UNiTAB, Betfair and mid tote with a corp. I would actually recommend this technique for anybody betting into smaller pools as there are some amazing discrepencies between dividends.

Exotics betting used to be somewhat of a no-no with the exorbitant take out rates of the TABs for those bet types but since the introduction of Flexi Betting and Corporate Bookies the landscape has changed a lot on that front. Quite simply the value is there nowadays - punters will throw the field in regularly with flexis and reduce their percentage despite a couple of horses having absolutely no hope and this inflates the final dividend for standard results (some bigger ones where bolters get up now pay unders but I rarely take that type anyway) and by taking your exotic bet with a corp its just common sense that your return is higher as your collect isn't being reflected in the dividend. For example, if you snare a $500 trifecta in a $6000 pool your return is about 5% higher by not having that bet on the TAB and reducing their dividend. Multiply that over numerous collects and its a hell of a difference!

These are just a couple of things and therere is no right or wrong way with this as we all bet differently but I would encourage everybody to analyse their data and endeavour to maximise profits as it certainly adds up over time.

Hobart Sunday - early markets

Initial thoughts after just looking at fields, will adjust later after looking at form closer

Race 1

1 MOST HAPPY JASPER 8
2 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
3 BIDE YOUR TIME 6
4 BERTILS ROCKET 21
5 GUERRERO 34
6 STEELINGTON NZ 11
7 ULTIMATE HEIR 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 26
9 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 2.5
10 RED RIVER GEE GEE 51
11 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 34
12 OUR KAIZAN NZ 34

Race 2

1 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.2
2 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
3 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 6
4 HARBHAJAN 4
5 CANCELLARA 34
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 101
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 34

Race 3

1 DELTA DEE DEE 21
2 SMOKIN MUSTARD 6
3 RIKKISU 34
4 DUSTY KALENA 8
5 JUST DANCE BABY 6
6 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 8
7 NOELSGIRL 6
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BREZHNEV LEIS 2.5

Race 4

1 KOIZORA 21
2 ARTIFICE 2.5
3 THIRTYSIXTOES 7
4 STRATEGIC MISS 21
5 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 4.5
7 CYCLONE DYNASTY 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BREATHING FIRE 21
9 BAJARDO RIVER 13

Race 5

1 ITS A HOOT 6
2 LITTLE ELF 5
3 BRO TOWN NZ 15
4 KING OF JEWELS 3.5
5 DREAMON DONNY 51
6 TIME TO PRAY 34
7 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ANOPTOMIST 4.5
9 GUNBOWER JACK 51
10 MELMAN 6
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT 26

Race 6

1 HARLEY FELLA 1.8
2 FORTY TWO GRAND 13
3 SON OF JAM 13
4 RAMBLIN CULLEN 7
5 GRACIE HART 3
6 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($7,000) 21

Race 7

1 STILL ROYAL 3.5
2 CURRYNROSES 7
3 MURPHYS ROCKET 7
4 MICKEY DELAHEY 21
5 TEEJAY FELLA 9
6 EARL HICKEY 34
7 PENNYS DRAGON 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
9 MISTER GALLENTI 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 9
11 ROSLYN AREFLYING 21

Race 8

1 TOPUP 9
2 DANCE OF THE DEITY 9
3 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 7
4 SKY TOWER 5
5 ANGUS MCGREGOR 15
6 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.8

Meeting Summary, Sunday September 26

Blackbookers

Harbhajan

Run of the Night

Brian Buster Brown, had everything made to order in the run but still smashed them late

Drive of the Night

Erin Hollaway (Murillo Bromac), some very strange runs in this race with a ton of horses not wanting to be near the fence over the last 500 metres despite being under pressure. Erin showed them all up by actually going to the pegs from the running line and didn't go round a single horse to win. Its also noteworthy that she took a needle eye opening after falling in the previous race

Nathan Ford also drove 3 horses perfectly on the night so deserves a mention (Brian Buster Brown, Mister Gallenti, Ulos)

Slaughter of the Night

Gareth Rattray (Anoptimist), I am probably harder on Gareth than a lot of other drivers as he sets the bar high but he made a terrible decision to leave the leader's back spot and get on the back of a bolter in the death who was gone at the time and it clearly cost him the race. Was then held up for nearly the rest of the race only to get out late for a close 3rd. Needless to say, the winner was 3 pegs and took the spot he vacated

A very close 2nd was:

Danny Malone (Ultimate Heir), drove a $52 pop as if it was Gammalite, surprised it only got beaten 42 metres actually after what he did early. Drivers must be aware of the abilities of their horse or shouldn't be driving

Voting for drivers

3. Erin Hollaway
2. Nathan Ford
1. Todd Rattray
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - C0-C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.2, lead time 43.5 (quick), first half 64.0, last half 59.5

Winner a mile too good

Brian Buster Brown (1st), enjoyed a perfect trip but destroyed them late
The Detonator (2nd), honest run and kept coming in straight
Little Elf (3rd), another honest run, lacks speed but does try
Our Last Knight (4th), enjoyed a great trip and plugged away
Liskens Gift (5th), run was a bit better than it looked as was slaughtered mid race coming round in 29.7 second quarter
Flying Jasper (9th), good gatespeed to lead from 7 but the quick lead time plus copping pressure from the 1200 meant he was gone a long way from home
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - C2-C3, 1680m, mile rate 2.04.0, lead time 4.4 (very fast), first half 66.7, last half 58.3

Farcically run mile race which resulted in it being fence dominated

Murphys Rocket (1st), led, walked and staved them off. Wasn't overly impressive but was always going to win
Denvers Boy (2nd), showed good gatespeed and sat outside leader and tried all the way
My Centurion (3rd), very good drive to maximise its placing
Touchwood Bucksta (4th), typical opportunist run and another good drive
Sanreos (5th), every hope but she just hasn't the speed to come wide and win in a dash home
Harbhajan (7th), knocked over at the 500 when looked to be travelling extremely well
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - C0-C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.03.2, lead time 45.9 (slower than average), first half 62.5, last half 60.0

Funnily run race and they staggered up the straight

Cancellara (1st), as usual when its a slog up the straight its the horse who has the softest run who gets up and this was the case with him
The Jouster (2nd), probably the best run in the race but even so was entitled to get home given the sectionals
Anoptimist (3rd), very unlucky not to win as held up from the 400 until well into the straight
Scarlett Blaze (4th), every hope and just battled
Barooga Billy (9th), galloped again, hate to think how far he would have won by given that he has run home 57 at previous couple of starts but he isn't a horse you can back currently
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - C0-C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.5, lead time 43.3 (fast), first half 62.9, last half 61.3

Blowout race for punters with favourite being attacked in front and then a fall put paid to the chances of the next 4 in the betting. As the times suggest, totally ignore the form so won't make individual comments as the only ones to finish were the ones in the right spots
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - C4-C6, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.5, lead time 44.6 (average), first half 61.6, last half 59.9

Another strangely run race where they staggered home and finished in a bunch which throws huge doubts over the form

Murillo Bromac (1st), best drive won the race, took the short way home
Resurgence (2nd), another teriffic affort and running even sectionals all race. If he can develop some top end speed to finish off his races he might be a decent horse
Mister Gallenti (3rd), every possible and looked winner on turn, was first up so fitness might have told late
King Of Bling (5th), finished off fairly at first try from behind in a while
Loaded Franco (7th), pretty average again, going 50 metres worse than 2 months ago
Harley Fella (8th), pretty average drive taking off a mile too early and then being shunted 5 and 6 wide. Probably went as well as anything in the race despite where he finished
Miami Rocket (9th), forgive run, pulled very hard and nothing left late
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6 - Claimer, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.7, lead time 42.6 (very fast), first half 64.0, last half 59.8

Strangely run race, super quick lead time then walked the first quarter and broke 30 the final 3 quarters. The best 2 horses fought it out

Ulos (1st), perfect drive and going to win a long way out
Albert Jones (2nd), typical honest run and probably went as well as the winner
Bonny Wee Laddie (3rd), another good run, will win one of these shortly
The Cherokee Chief (4th), has really gone better at past few runs, wouldn't surprise to see him bob up soon
Jefferson (8th), pretty plain performance on face value but claimers can do that from time to time
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - FFA, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.6, lead time 46.5 (slow), first half 62.0, last half 57.7

Best horse led and won but some decent runs behind him

Cosmic Under Fire (1st), surprising gatespeed to lead easily then always in control
The Musics Over (2nd), never runs a bad race this bloke and again proved he will be competitive in most races when draws well
Topup (3rd), well driven but he just peaks on his sprint so probably better when drawn to follow the pegs at this level
Majestic Emperor (4th), lot better run than past couple, worked home well in quick last half
Castaspell (5th), pretty good effort, surprised me with how well he went
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.04.1, lead time 5.2 (average), first half 65.1, last half 59.2

Pretty lacklustre race to watch as best horse led, walked and raced away late

Bettor Draw (1st), once he got a soft lead was always going to win over this trip
Brezhnev Leis (2nd), usual honest run, his lack of speed means he is better suited to longer trips
Odins Dragon Rider (3rd), every possible and pretty plain in the straight
Just Dance Baby (4th), encouraging debut, showed enough to think that will definitely win races
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday Tips

Launceston - all races

R1#3 Brian Buster Brown
R2#2 Murphys Rocket
R3#10 Barooga Billy
R4#4 Cindys Babe
R5#8 Harley Fella
R6#10 Ulos
R7#6 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#5 Bettor Draw

No best bet, think Cosmic Under Fire wins as got beaten on the line against the same field giving them a 40 metre start in a stand last week but don't like taking the shorts on a horse who probably won't lead. I am quite keen on Cindys Babe EW actually so recommend backing her

Quaddie

1,4,8,10
1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10
6,7,8,10
6
$100 for 78.1%

If approximate collect on Cosmic Under Fire is $250 or greater then I would advise putting $30 on #1 The Musics Over to cover the outlay as looks the only danger and should be around the $4.50 mark

Launceston Preview, Sunday September 26

Race 1

1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 21
2 THE DETONATOR 7
3 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 2
4 LITTLE ELF 3.5
5 INTHENICKOFTIME 26
6 LISKENS GIFT 21
7 FLYING JASPER 15
8 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THANKGODYOURLOADED 15

#3 Brian Buster Brown looked a shade disappointing to me last time but looks a good race for him here as doubt they will go as quickly mid race and therefore he will have the speed still in his legs late. The only query is that despite having good gatespeed he does tend to race best with a sit which means #4 Little Elf might come right into the mix as despite being beaten in a much easier race last week there is no doubt he should have won easily and just might get to the pegs here. #2 The Detonator ran a much improved race last time and despite a slight let up still comes into play from this barrier. #9 Thankgodyourloaded is a slight query having trialled okay so keeping him safe also. Of the rest, #7 Flying Jasper was perfectly driven to place last time but will find it tougher from this draw and its a very similar story with #6 Liskens Gift. #1 Our Last Knight was also placed in an average race last time after a dream trip but may place again from this gate
Ratings 3/4/2/9/7/1,6/5

Race 2

1 SANREOS 6
2 MURPHYS ROCKET 2.5
3 BORNFIRST 51
4 DENVERS BOY 4.5
5 HELVIK 26
6 AS YOU WISH 34
7 HARBHAJAN 4.5
8 MICKEY DELAHEY 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MY CENTURION NZ 17
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 13

#2 Murphys Rocket was impressive at first Tassie start and looks the leader here and will be mighty hard to run down with a repeat performance. #4 Denvers Boy is as honest as they come and led the 3 wide train the last lap last week and got beaten a metre in a 58.2 closing half so cannot be ignored and #7 Harbhajan has pulled himself silly at past couple but if he settles in the run is a definite winning chance. #1 Sanreos is a tough mare who may get crossed early but will keep coming so is an EW chance. Of the rest, #10 Touchwood Bucksta was a shade disappointing in Hobart but is an opportunist type and a must for exotics and #9 My Centurion draws awkwardly but has been going okay
Ratings 2/4/7/1/10/9

Race 3

1 SCARLETT BLAZE 6
2 ANOPTOMIST 7
3 SPACE KNIGHT 26
4 LOOK LOOK 26
5 THE JOUSTER 6
6 CANCELLARA 34
7 RISENSHINE
8 RED RIVER GEE GEE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 OUR KAIZAN NZ 7
10 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5

Couple of query runners make this very difficult to sort out and there isn't a ton of gatespeed either which makes the speed map difficult. #10 Barooga Billy is a clear top pick though but even he has some question marks around him as can get it wrong on occasions such as last start when ran off the track down the back straight and threw the race away. Should trail through well from this draw though and if he does it right should win. #1 Scarlett Blaze has gone okay at past two from bad gates and gets a draw to receive every hope here so won't be far away, #5 The Jouster is first up in the state and has trialled okay so watch any market moves closely as wouldn't surprise to see him to the fore. #2 Anoptimist always runs an honest race when he draws okay and should be the case again here and #9 Our Kaizan is another first up in the state with fair form but draws to get a good run and the stable is well versed in bringing horses to Tassie. Bit of a watch on #3 Space Knight also who although beaten easily last campaign raced against better than these and hasn't trialled and would also include #4 Look Look in exotics as has run an honest race every time this campaign
Ratings 10/1,5/2/9/3,4

Race 4

1 ARTIFICE 4
2 RUBYS LIFE 13
3 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
4 CINDYS BABE 5
5 BAJARDO RIVER 21
6 NIGHT IN VEGAS 8
7 LOLA BROMAC NZ 17
8 FLYIN INDI AIR 6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MONICAS NOTCH 17
10 ALMA GRANT 8
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 34

Another very hard race with heaps of question marks, #4 Cindys Babe is stepping up in class here but was enormous in defeat last time and I really like the driving change to Erin Hollaway here so might be the best betting option as will go forward and make her own luck. #1 Artifice has been unplaced as fav at past 2 starts so very hard to jump in at shortish odds here but from the draw is still the one to beat. #8 Flying Indi Air is a huge query, raced in a group 1 race 3 starts back and is very honest but the big worry is that has only won 3 of 55 starts and been placed on 22 other occasions but obviously is suited in this class. #6 Night In Vegas has plenty of ability and resumes without a trial so impossible to know where she is at but would need to be right at the top of her game to win this first up from this gate, #10 Alma Grant is very honest and gets a decent trailing draw for her. Also cannot totally rule out #2 Rubys Life whose form is shocking on paper but does have ability, #7 Lola Bromac had her chance last week and would probably need to lead to win which is highly unlikely and #9 Monicas Notch didn't enjoy much luck last time and worked home okay when clear. Very hard race
Ratings 4/1/8/6,10/2,7,9

Race 5

1 LOADED FRANCO 7
2 MISTER GALLENTI 15
3 KING ALBERT 17
4 MI MADEMOISELLE 34
5 WINGSOFANEAGLE 11
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 8
7 RESURGENCE 7
8 HARLEY FELLA 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MIAMI ROCKET NZ 4
10 KING OF BLING 11

Another dead set raffle, was going to put the roughie #5 Wingsofaneagle on top as thought he would lead but if he does will get hammered by #7 Resurgence anyway which may set it up for a run on horse so have opted for #8 Harley Fella who will probably have to drop out to last but is flying currently and can work in his races, #9 Miami Rocket is the interesting runner after being claimed from Victoria and has been very good at past few so must keep safe. #7 Resurgence has won his past 4 starts but will have to do it tough from here but he is very strong and will not shirk the task, #5 Wingsofaneagle got involved in a suicidal lead time last start so ignore the margin and might bob up at odds. #1 Loaded Franco went disgracefully last time but previous form was good enough for this and draws to get every hope and stablemate #6 Murillo Bromac hasn't been at the top of its game recently but this is easier than past few. Actually concede all runners a chance with even #10 King Of Bling a chance despite being better suited to the front row
Ratings 8/9/5,7/1,6,10/field

Race 6

1 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
2 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) 51
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 21
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000)21
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 21
6 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 4.5
7 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($9,000) 6
8 JEFFERSON NZ ($10,000) 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FORTY TWO GRAND ($10,000) 13
10 ULOS ($10,000) 3

Look to be 4 standoutout hopes here but they also draw the 4 worst gates which makes things a tad tougher. #10 Ulos is always hard to beat at this level and should trail through okay from this draw, #7 Bonny Wee Laddie has been very good at both runs for the Hillier stable and will be storming late, #6 Albert Jones never runs a bad race and #8 Jefferson has got better at every Tasmanian start so even from this draw can feature. The last time these met in a mobile it was a blanket finish between 6,8,10 so expect something similar here. The rest are all quite even and place hopes only
Ratings 10/7/6/8/field

Race 7

1 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 5
2 TOPUP 9
3 CASTASPELL 26
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 7
5 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
6 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.6
7 BUBBAS A FAKE 13

#6 Cosmic Under Fire will appreciate the return to mobile conditions here after giving most of these a 40 metre start in a stand this week. He did a power of work in the run and just got touched off late so really picks himself. If they drive him aggressively this week he should just win. #1 The Musics Over hasn't run a bad race all season and from this draw is the danger, #4 Majestic Emperor has been quite plain at past couple but did win a similar race here recently beating the fav but got away with a 38 lead time and 35 first quarter and that isn't going to happen again. #2 Topup looked home last week but reckon he found the distance a shade too far and draws to get the type of run he likes here. Of the remainder, #5 Angus Macgregor showed a glimpse of his best form last week and is also suited by the mobile so include in exotics and #7 Bubbas A Fake is very erratic but certainly has ability when her mind is on the job
Ratings 6/1/2,4/5/7

Race 8

1 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 4
2 JUST DANCE BABY 13
3 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER 34
4 BREZHNEV LEIS 3
5 BETTOR DRAW 2.2
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 21

Tricky little race to finish the night, #5 Bettor Draw has beaten better than these but best form has tended to be when Gareth drives so wouldn't want to take silly odds but should press forward and will definitely be in the finish somewhere. #4 Brezhnev Leis is very one paced but also very tough and never lies down so you know what you are going to get with him so is a must include. #1 Odins Dragon Rider looked unlucky last week but was beaten on its merits by Bettor Draw 2 runs back so find it hard to see that being reversed despite the draw. #2 Just Dance Baby won a trial recently in average time but watch for any betting moves, #6 Ignorance Is Bliss has also won a recent trial in moderate time so may be a place hope and #3 Shezalittlerustler looks as if this will be too hard
Ratings 5/4/1/2/6/3

Saturday Tip

Kilmore

R6#7 Viareggio

Lombo Lumber Jack

Everybody knows that I love this horse as he just tries his heart out every run (probably my favourite horse currently racing) and he resumes tonight for the Geoff Webster at Melton on the back of a very good trial and just noticed he is an early favourite at $3.30 on the TAB. He needs to be $6 minimum before I will be on based on the fact its a 2240m stand and he isn't the quickest of beginners from the tapes due to his enormous size so might struggle to get into the race.

Another thing that tempers my confidence a tad about the trial is that every trial that day was run in very quick time so may have been a tad flattering. All that being said though, if the Webster camp have been able to inject any speed into him he will become a pretty serious metro horse as has many similar characteristics to horses like Flashing Red and Min Min Lights but its a very, very long bow to draw to say he can match their feats (especially Flashing Red) but for comparison purposes it shows that some tough horses can gain speed in some circumstances.

Going to be interesting to see how my old mate goes tonight, even if I'm not on I will still give him a cheer if he gets up

A few tips to end the week

THURSDAY

Bendigo
R5#9 Sedgeman EW
R7#2 Tommy Starflash
Quaddie
2,4,9,10/2,6,9,11/1,2,4,6,9/2 $80 for 100%
2,4,9,10/2,6,9,11/1,2,4,6,9/10 $20 for 25%
----------------------------------------
FRIDAY - better bets

Warragul
R4#1 Suave Stuey Lombo
Quaddie
1/7,10/field/3,7 $56 for 200%

Melton
R9#9 Benucci

Menangle
R5#5 Lonestar Legend (special)
R6#2 Caesar Supreme
R7#5 Andyourgoodtogo (special)

Globe Derby
R8#6 Whata Special

Gloucester Park
R4#6 My Sound Of Thunder
----------------------------------------------
FRIDAY - off the video (remember these are not tipped on form but purely on going okay at previous run but worth an EW ticket if any value or definites for exotics)

Gloucester Park
R1#12 Falcons Medley
R2#4 Wemen Earl
R6#12 Real Life
R9#9 Tuff Jag

Melton
R2#10 Onedin Hustler
R4#13 Our Rising Star
R6#1 Shortys Star
R7#10 Johnorama (best bolter)

The Bob and Vin Knight production line from Tasmania

Caught up with a mate today from the good old days and over a few beers at the pub we started talking about the production line of Tasmanian horses who finished up in the stables of Bob Knight at Kilmore. At one stage around 1990 it seemed as if they were almost training a Tasmanian State of Origin stable!!

We set ourselves a challenge of naming 20 horses who went there and found it surprisingly easy so then decided to do a top 10 which is:

1. Sinbad Bay
2. Jane Ellen
3. Almeta Boy
4. Digger Neptune (could have been anything)
5. Prince Nijo
6. Sir Reilly
7. Allan Grant
8. Preux Amara
9. Atacandy
10. Trevs Choice

All these horses would have been in their stable within a 3 year block of time. Other names that sprang to mind that didn't make the top 10 were: Tyne Valley, Key Lee, Samson Hanover, All Cheetah, Forth Hanover, Mister Tubbes, Torado Stone, Kilara Brooke, Captain Sunshine, De'lisle, Meelin Master, Shylock, Amazing Jane, Bradecca, Ambassadora, Ark Toro, Lovely Lena and I am sure I have forgotten a few as didn't do much research.

They were nearly all sired by Torado Hanover as well

Looking back now, its obvious as to why a young fella in Tassie at the time fell in love with the caper.

Launceston Sunday - Early Market

Race 1

1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 21
2 THE DETONATOR 7
3 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 2.2
4 LITTLE ELF 3.5
5 INTHENICKOFTIME 26
6 LISKENS GIFT 21
7 FLYING JASPER 15
8 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THANKGODYOURLOADED 11

#3 Brian Buster Brown looked a shade disappointing to me last time but looks a good race for him here as doubt they will go as quickly mid race and therefore he will have the speed still in his legs late. The only query is that despite having good gatespeed he does tend to race best with a sit which means #4 Little Elf might come right into the mix as despite being beaten in a much easier race last week there is no doubt he should have won easily and just might get to the pegs here. #2 The Detonator ran a much improved race last time and despite a slight let up still comes into play from this barrier. #9 Thankgodyourloaded is a slight query having trialled okay so keeping him safe also. Of the rest, #7 Flying Jasper was perfectly driven to place last time but will find it tougher from this draw and its a very similar story with #6 Liskens Gift. #1 Our Last Knight was also placed in an average race last time after a dream trip but may place again from this gate
Ratings 3/4/2/9/7/1,6/5

Race 2

1 SANREOS 8
2 MURPHYS ROCKET 2.2
3 BORNFIRST 51
4 DENVERS BOY 5
5 HELVIK 26
6 AS YOU WISH 34
7 HARBHAJAN 4.5
8 MICKEY DELAHEY 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MY CENTURION NZ 17
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 13

#2 Murphys Rocket was impressive at first Tassie start and looks the leader here and will be mighty hard to run down with a repeat performance. #4 Denvers Boy is as honest as they come and led the 3 wide train the last lap last week and got beaten a metre in a 58.2 closing half so cannot be ignored and #7 Harbhajan has pulled himself silly at past couple but if he settles in the run is a definite winning chance. #1 Sanreos is a tough mare who may get crossed early but will keep coming so is an EW chance. Of the rest, #10 Touchwood Bucksta was a shade disappointing in Hobart but is an opportunist type and a must for exotics and #9 My Centurion draws awkwardly but has been going okay
Ratings 2/4/7/1/10/9

Race 3

1 SCARLETT BLAZE 6
2 ANOPTOMIST 7
3 SPACE KNIGHT 26
4 LOOK LOOK 26
5 THE JOUSTER 6
6 CANCELLARA 34
7 RISENSHINE
8 RED RIVER GEE GEE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 OUR KAIZAN NZ 7
10 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5

Couple of query runners make this very difficult to sort out and there isn't a ton of gatespeed either which makes the speed map difficult. #10 Barooga Billy is a clear top pick though but even he has some question marks around him as can get it wrong on occasions such as last start when ran off the track down the back straight and threw the race away. Should trail through well from this draw though and if he does it right should win. #1 Scarlett Blaze has gone okay at past two from bad gates and gets a draw to receive every hope here so won't be far away, #5 The Jouster is first up in the state and has trialled okay so watch any market moves closely as wouldn't surprise to see him to the fore. #2 Anoptimist always runs an honest race when he draws okay and should be the case again here and #9 Our Kaizan is another first up in the state with fair form but draws to get a good run and the stable is well versed in bringing horses to Tassie. Bit of a watch on #3 Space Knight also who although beaten easily last campaign raced against better than these and hasn't trialled and would also include #4 Look Look in exotics as has run an honest race every time this campaign
Ratings 10/1,5/2/9/3,4

Race 4

1 ARTIFICE 4
2 RUBYS LIFE 13
3 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
4 CINDYS BABE 5
5 BAJARDO RIVER 21
6 NIGHT IN VEGAS 8
7 LOLA BROMAC NZ 17
8 FLYIN INDI AIR 6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MONICAS NOTCH 17
10 ALMA GRANT 8
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 34

Another very hard race with heaps of question marks, #4 Cindys Babe is stepping up in class here but was enormous in defeat last time and I really like the driving change to Erin Hollaway here so might be the best betting option as will go forward and make her own luck. #1 Artifice has been unplaced as fav at past 2 starts so very hard to jump in at shortish odds here but from the draw is still the one to beat. #8 Flying Indi Air is a huge query, raced in a group 1 race 3 starts back and is very honest but the big worry is that has only won 3 of 55 starts and been placed on 22 other occasions but obviously is suited in this class. #6 Night In Vegas has plenty of ability and resumes without a trial so impossible to know where she is at, #10 Alma Grant is very honest and gets a decent trailing draw for her. Also cannot totally rule out #2 Rubys Life whose form is shocking on paper but does have ability, #7 Lola Bromac had her chance last week and would probably need to lead to win which is highly unlikely and #9 Monicas Notch didn't enjoy much luck last time and worked home okay when clear. Very hard race
Ratings 4/1/8/6,10/2,7,9

Race 5

1 LOADED FRANCO 7
2 MISTER GALLENTI 15
3 KING ALBERT 17
4 MI MADEMOISELLE 34
5 WINGSOFANEAGLE 11
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 8
7 RESURGENCE 7
8 HARLEY FELLA 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 MIAMI ROCKET NZ 4
10 KING OF BLING 11

Another dead set raffle, was going to put the roughie #5 Wingsofaneagle on top as thought he would lead but if he does will get hammered by #7 Resurgence anyway which may set it up for a run on horse so have opted for #8 Harley Fella who will probably have to drop out to last but is flying currently and can work in his races, #9 Miami Rocket is the interesting runner after being claimed from Victoria and has been very good at past few so must keep safe. #7 Resurgence has won his past 4 starts but will have to do it tough from here but he is very strong and will not shirk the task, #5 Wingsofaneagle got involved in a suicidal lead time last start so ignore the margin and might bob up at odds. #1 Loaded Franco went disgracefully last time but previous form was good enough for this and draws to get every hope and stablemate #6 Murillo Bromac hasn't been at the top of its game recently but this is easier than past few. Actually concede all runners a chance with even #10 King Of Bling a chance despite being better suited to the front row
Ratings 8/9/5,7/1,6,10/field

Race 6

1 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 17
2 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($5,000) 51
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 13
4 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000)17
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 26
6 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
7 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($9,000) 5
8 JEFFERSON NZ ($10,000) 6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FORTY TWO GRAND ($10,000) 13
10 ULOS ($10,000) 3.5

Look to be 4 standoutout hopes here but they also draw the 4 worst gates which makes things a tad tougher. #10 Ulos is always hard to beat at this level and should trail through okay from this draw, #7 Bonny Wee Laddie has been very good at both runs for the Hillier stable and will be storming late, #6 Albert Jones never runs a bad race and #8 Jefferson has got better at every Tasmanian start so even from this draw can feature. The last time these met in a mobile it was a blanket finish between 6,8,10 so expect something similar here. The rest are all quite even and place hopes only
Ratings 10/7/6/8/field

Race 7

1 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 5
2 TOPUP 9
3 CASTASPELL 26
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 7
5 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
6 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.6
7 BUBBAS A FAKE 13

#6 Cosmic Under Fire will appreciate the return to mobile conditions here after giving most of these a 40 metre start in a stand this week. He did a power of work in the run and just got touched off late so really picks himself. If they drive him aggressively this week he should just win. #1 The Musics Over hasn't run a bad race all season and from this draw is the danger, #4 Majestic Emperor has been quite plain at past couple but did win a similar race here recently beating the fav but got away with a 38 lead time and 35 first quarter and that isn't going to happen again. #2 Topup looked home last week but reckon he found the distance a shade too far and draws to get the type of run he likes here. Of the remainder, #5 Angus Macgregor showed a glimpse of his best form last week and is also suited by the mobile so include in exotics and #7 Bubbas A Fake is very erratic but certainly has ability when her mind is on the job
Ratings 6/1/2,4/5/7

Race 8

1 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 4
2 JUST DANCE BABY 13
3 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER 34
4 BREZHNEV LEIS 3
5 BETTOR DRAW 2.2
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 21

Tricky little race to finish the night, #5 Bettor Draw has beaten better than these but best form has tended to be when Gareth drives so wouldn't want to take silly odds but should press forward and will definitely be in the finish somewhere. #4 Brezhnev Leis is very one paced but also very tough and never lies down so you know what you are going to get with him so is a must include. #1 Odins Dragon Rider looked unlucky last week but was beaten on its merits by Bettor Draw 2 runs back so find it hard to see that being reversed despite the draw. #2 Just Dance Baby won a trial recently in average time but watch for any betting moves, #6 Ignorance Is Bliss has also won a recent trial in moderate time so may be a place hope and #3 Shezalittlerustler looks as if this will be too hard
Ratings 5/4/1/2/6/3

Meeting Review, Sunday September 19

Blackbookers

Blacktie Affair
Iden Justasmyrk
Denvers Boy
Cosmic Under Fire
Bonny Wee Laddie

Run of the Night

Cosmic Under Fire, super effort from the 40m backmark to work midrace to get around them and then do plenty of work from that point onwards. Don't think it was the best race I have seen Gareth drive either putting the pressure on a long way from home after working from the handicap just to get into the race. Put it this way, the last 3 quarters were 30.5, 28.8 and 29.7 and I'm sure if they were run 30.5, 29.7 and 28.8 then Cosmic would have won clearly

Drive of the Night

Mark Yole (Flying Jasper), did everything bar lift it over the line. Drove aggressively early to trail through from gate 9 then took a very smart option of trailing the leader as would have finished 1x2 if he stayed in the running line (which the majority of Tassie drivers would have) and wouldn't have run a place if he did that. Actually been very impressed with all of his driving lately

Slaughter of the Night

Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), wins this award for the 2nd drive straight on this mare. He simply had to use a bit of initiative and get into the race when horses in front were taking him nowhere. Mile races are dominated by horses on the speed so you must endeavour to get into the race early and thought his biggest mistake was not taking off earlier to avoid anything pulling out in front. Sure the horse may be a tad one dimensional but it is a mile race so its not as big an issue to get going early on. Whilst I wasn't overly impressed by Gareth's drive on Cosmic Under Fire either, Todd wins as he gave his horse no chance at all and when you are on the best horse in the race that simply should not happen. I can appreciate that driving sit/sprint types isn't the easiest thing to do but you have to at least give them a chance

Idiot of the Night

ME!!! - last week I had $50 a win Thabela Brioso @ 30/1 and $30 a win Bayfield High @ 40/1 and didn't have a cent on either this week when winning at odds of $21 and $70 respectively. Needless to say I wasn't impressed.
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Race 1 - C1-C3 Mares, 1609m, mile rate 2.00.0, first half 62.1, last half 57.9

First 2 dominated the tempo and the race, few traffic problems out the back and quick last half impacted the chances of a few

Thabela Brioso (1st), good win, sat outside leader and always looked the winner
Lola Bromac (2nd), had her chance, led and just lacked a bit of zip late
Blacktie Affair (3rd), good run again, didn't enjoy much luck and was 1000/1 from the 800 so did well to get as close as she did
Jet Black Flyer (4th), ran home a bit quick for her but still battled on okay
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.1, lead time 35.6 (bit quicker than average), first half 64.7, last half 58.3

Winner just in a different class to the rest

Iden Justasmyrk (1st), once he led it was game over and threw in a 28.0 closing quarter to race away late
Crash Cart (2nd), another honest run but thought he was entitled to beat the rest a bit easier than he did given the good trip he enjoyed
Cullens Count (3rd), another good honest run, seem to say the same thing every week so his turn must come soon
Livin In Heaven (4th), better run than it looks on paper after having traffic issues
The Bullionaire (5th), not much luck and forced to lead up the 3 wide train which isn't his go so forgive run
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 35.3 (bit quicker than average), first half 63.3, last half 59.6

Winner did more work than anything and still too good

Murphys Rocket (1st), confident drive and always looked the winner in the run. Will win better races for sure if he draws to lead
Bide Your Time (2nd), another encouraging run at 2nd start after a long spell. Never shirked the task at all when the winner headed him
Flying Jasper (3rd), perfectly driven to receive every hope, is just a battler but tries hard
Most Happy Jasper (4th), another very good run and probably the 2nd best run in race outside the winner. Love to see him draw to lead in a mile race shortly
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.4, lead time 36.8 (slow), first half 61.3, last half 59.5

Winner heavily backed and killed them

Royal Alchemist (1st), plenty of money to suggest he was going to run well and miles too good for this lot actually, copped a bit of pressure midrace as well which adds further merit to the win
Brian Buster Brown (2nd), enjoyed a perfect trip and was a shade disappointing in my eyes, not in that he couldn't beat the winner but that the others all got pretty close to him. In hindsight I over rated the form around Biggernbettermax who was beaten at long odds on in race 5
Anoptimist (3rd), honest horse this bloke, lacks a bit of dash but always goes okay when drawn well
King Of Jewels (4th), good run again, not enjoying much luck in races since coming to Tassie
Look Look (5th), ran a lot better than I expected from the draw, will be including in exotics next time for sure
Scarlett Blaze (6th), another who didn't enjoy the greatest of luck, don't sack on this run
Line The Pocket (7th), encouraging debut run, finished level with some decent horses and should derive some benefit
Its A Hoot (8th), was first up and was used a bit early in race and still boxed on okay so fair performance
Melman (9th), wasn't given much hope by the driver attacking for the lead so totally forget he went around
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - C2-C3, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.2, lead time 36.7 (slowish), first half 63.8, last half 58.2

First 3 over the line clearly the best runs in race

Bayfield High (1st), huge improvement to win, previous run was okay but to come 3 wide the last lap in a 58.2 closing half and win is metres better than any previous performance and will win again if can repeat that
Biggernbettermax (2nd), had his chance, got it easy early and couldn't get home. He did look flat furing the run though and never travelled which was always concerning. Times over the last 1200 were okay as well so he wasn't terrible despite being beaten @ $1.20
Denvers Boy (3rd), probably the best run in the race leading the 3 wide train up in good sectionals. Just never runs a bad race nowadays
Earl Hickey (4th), soft run on pegs but battled on okay
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.04.8, lead time 37.3 (slow), first half 63.8, last half 61.0

Pretty average sectional times and a bunched finish throw doubts over the strength of the form

Brezhnev Leis (1st), simply too tough, did a bit of work and kicked back strongly
Noelsgirl (2nd), good run in transit and battled on okay. Wasn't ultra impressive but did pull a bit in the run
Smokin Mustard (3rd), another good run at odds, one to follow from a better draw
Odins Dragon Rider (4th), looked unlucky and probably should have won
Cheryl Mary (5th), good gate speed but will never get a better run in front than here (slow lead time then first 3 quarters > 31 show how slow it was)
Dusty Kalena (9th), manners let him down again, certainly has ability but manners are a real issue
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - Discretionary, 2579m Stand, mile rate 2.04.4, lead time 78.4 (average), first half 62.4, last half 58.5

Another bunched finish and they staggered the last 200 metres so formlines very debatable

The Musics Over (1st), strange run, couldn't keep up down the back straight but kept coming when the leaders got tired. Just an honest horse who will never be far away
Cosmic Under Fire (2nd), very good run, forced to work all the way as the speed went on as soon as he worked around them at the 1200 and he came from a 40m handicap to get there
Angus Macgregor (3rd), got a great run to save every inch of ground so was a tad flattered
Topup (4th), every possible hope
Ulos (5th), finished close up but entitled to do more than he did late
Majestic Emperor (6th), similar stary to Ulos
Jumpin Jack Jasper (7th), very disappointing after receiving a great run
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.04.0, lead time 37.0 (slow), first half 63.9, last half 60.2

Very average reverse order points race, first 3 over line finished 30 metres in front of the rest so wouldn't like to own one of them

Deejay bromac (1st), lacks speed but finally found a race where he could work into it and grinded out the win
Little Elf (2nd), very stiff not to win after being posted 3 deep the first 600 metres. Be lucky to find a race this weak again but definitely the one to follow from the race
Our Last Knight (3rd), enjoyed a great trip and kept whacking away
Koizora (5th), did some work to find the front but didn't find a thing
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Race 9 - Claimer, 2090m Stand, mile rate 2.07.2, lead time 41.7 (slow), first half 64.6, last half 58.9

Slowly run stand over the short trip made the leader almost unbeatable

Waterloo Bay (1st), enjoyed a great trip in front and never going to get beaten
Bonny Wee Laddie (2nd), very good run and only beaten by tempo early. Has to win at this level soon
The Cherokee Chief (3rd), getting better with every run of late, if he could find the front one day mght sneal away with one
Costa Smerelda (4th), finished up leader's back in a dash home which isn't his go as more a grinder so prepared to overlook
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Driver Education from a Punter's Perspective

I must sound like a moron sometimes screaming at the TV monitor when a driver does something that more or less costs him the race

1. Learn how to get horses out of the mobile, sounds simple but its only a select few who have the knack of maximising a horse's gatespeed and the difference it can make at the finish simply cannot be measured

2. Don't drive leaders too slowly - hate the mentality that a lot of drivers have that "the slower they go on a leader, the better chance they have". Its a total myth and in fact statistics prove you are better to run even 32 quarters in front as opposed to a 34 split. Heaps of drivers also go too slowly down the back straight and allow their dangers into the race when in fact they only have to go 28.5 to make it hard for the ones out wide and if you go 28.5 you should still have a decent amount of petrol left

3. Never hand the death seat up to a bolter unless you have no intention of relying on it to take you into the race

4. Know the characteristics of competitors (both horses and drivers). It stands out like dogs balls which drivers actually do their form in depth and its surprisingly low

5. Go to the fence when you are struggling ffs

6. Forget the fascination with the one out/one back spot as its generally not the greatest place to be despite what 99% of racecallers lead us to believe

7. Further to the previous point, don't use a bolter mid race to pull out in front of a runner coming 3 wide to obtain the one/one as your horse won't finish the race off and it makes to aggressor work for another 300 metres to simply get round to the death seat. This is also usually chorused by racecallers as "a great piece of driving" PLEASE!!!!!

8. Don't be afraid to come 4 wide earlier than usual if a no hoper pulls out in front of you at the 800 as you will have to come 4 wide anyway and more than likely be further off the leader than when you started if you stay behind the bolter for another 300 metres

9. If an odds on pop leads you are far better off being 3 pegs than ANY position in the running line. Sure leader's back is the best place to be but outside that 3 pegs is clearly superior to any other spot but its amazing how many drivers shun this spot

10. Its always better to err on the side of aggression as opposed to passiveness. Not many have the abilities of a Gavin Lang or Greg Sugars so stop trying to impersonate them

Just waiting for the NFL to start and came up with these off the top of my head but there are countless others no doubt given a bit more time to think. Who teaches the young drivers anyway??? From what I have seen, its usually some nearly retired unsuccessful driver who has dabbled with a few horses most of their life and learned to drive on 800m tracks without sprint lanes. Maybe they need to get a punter's perspective into how to drive tactically as I'm sure punters have more knowledge of the idiosyncrasies of how races are run

It's all Swings and Roundabouts

Was just updating the results for this evening and was amazed to see the overall results of my top tips for today's meeting, I was actually disappointed in a few of them to be honest and failed to get a feeling of frustration for running countless placings

Results were:

R1#6 Blacktie Affair 3rd
R2#6 Iden Justasmyrk 1st
R3#1 Bide Your Time 2nd
R4#4 Brian Buster Brown 2nd
R5#2 Biggernbettermax 2nd
R6#6 Brezhnev Leis 1st
R7#10 Cosmic Under Fire 2nd
R8#3 Little Elf 2nd
R9#7 Bonnie Wee Laddie 2nd

9 races - 2 winners, 6 seconds, 1 third

The point I was alluding to is that none of the second placegetters really deserved to win (bar Cosmic Under Fire and Little Elf) and most had every possible hope to be frank yet I would imagine a lot of punters would be lamenting their luck and driving people mad with sob stories about running second 6 times in the last 7 races. You have to accept it for what it is and I am certain on another day I will win 2-3 races that I don't really deserve to win which we never seem to think about when having a rough trot. When you are winning and getting heaps of photo finishes in your favour, you never reflect and think this is going to go the other way soon - just isn't in the punting handbook to do that!!

Over the course of time, there will be peaks and troughs mixed with good and bad luck so you just have to cop it on the chin as what goes around will eventually come around.

I might have to stop tipping horses whose names begin with a "B" also :)

A tip for early in the week

Monday - Camsplace Dexter (should be around $2.0)

Hobart - Tips all Races and Quaddies

Hobart - all races

R1#6 Blacktie Affair
R2#6 Iden Justasmyrk
R3#1 Bide Your Time
R4#4 Brian Buster Brown
R5#2 Biggernbettermax
R6#6 Brezhnev Leis
R7#10 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#3 Little Elf
R9#7 Bonnie Wee Laddie

Best Bet:
Brian Buster Brown

$100 Quaddie

4/2/5,6,7,8,9,10/field cost $54 for 100%
1,3,5,6,8,11/2/5,6,7,8,9,10/1,3,4,6,7,10 cost $46 for 21.3%

Best exotics

QUINELLAS
R2 - 3,6
R4 - 4,5

FIRST FOUR
R5
2/8,12/8,12/field
2/8,12/field/8,12

Hobart Preview - Sunday September 19

Race 1

1 BREATHING FIRE 13
2 LOLA BROMAC NZ 4.5
3 BAJARDO RIVER 11
4 JET BLACK FLYER 4.5
5 THABELA BRIOSO 21
6 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.5
7 HELVIK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DOVES PATCH NZ 17

The mares start the night over the mile trip and whilst its not usually a good practice tipping sit/sprint horses in mile races, I have settled on #6 Blacktie Affair to come out on top. Thought the drive left a bit to be desired last time and the small field really helps. There also looks to be plenty of speed so given even luck she should be able to reel them in. Spotted #2 Lola Bromac run a very cheeky race last time where she was the sole survivor of the early speed burn and if she led here could give plenty of cheek (the worry with her is that the pole has plenty of early toe so might not get there and she lacks the speed to come wide and win). #4 Jet Black Flyer continues to race well and whilst not as well drawn here is still a chance. #3 Bajardo River ran a bottler at huge odds in a similar field and should get a good trip from this draw so don't dismiss. Of the rest, #1 Breathing Fire was well supported first up when led and found nothing but draws to lead again and the shorter trip may help, #5 Thabela Brioso hasn't enjoyed much luck of late but this is tougher, #7 Helvik resumes and has ability but the draw makes it extremely tough and #8 Doves Patch also has ability but simply does too much wrong to be a betting proposition
Ratings 6/2/4/3/1,5,7,8

Race 2

1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 13
2 TITLED 34
3 CRASH CART 4
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 13
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 13
6 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 1.8
7 SAMMYDREW 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PADDY MY BOY 51
9 THE BULLIONAIRE 21

#6 Iden Justasmyrk has won well at past 2 starts and looks a clear top pick again, he has been driven off the speed at past couple but would be very surprised if he didn't go forward here as can certainly work in his races. #3 Crash Cart is screaming Out to win a race and is a definite danger but does need things run to suit. One of the duo should definitely win but both #4 Livin In Heaven and #5 Cullens Count are very honest and if the favs don't get it there way may capitalise.
Ratings 6/3/4,5/1/7,9

Race 3

1 BIDE YOUR TIME 3
2 MURPHYS ROCKET 3
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 RISENSHINE 51
5 MOST HAPPY JASPER 11
6 MISTER GUNADOO 8
7 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LOCKDOWN 8
9 FLYING JASPER 17

Really struggling with this race I have to admit, settled on #1 Bide Your Time who went okay at first start back from a long spell and from this draw will get every chance, #2 Murphys Rocket has been going okay in Victoria and whilst down on his best form he would beat these at his best but its impossible to assess him at first start in the state. #6 Mister Gunadoo was well backed and well driven to score when resuming and despite the draw making it tougher here still comes into the mix and #8 Lockdown had no luck at all first up and may improve with a cold run from the draw. #3 Liskens Gift is an honest one paced type who gets his best draw in a while and #5 Most Happy Jasper also ran a cheeky race last time
Ratings 1/2/6,8/3,5/9/7

Race 4

1 ANOPTOMIST 8
2 KOIZORA (Em 1)
3 LINE THE POCKET NZ 13
4 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 2.5
5 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 6
6 MELMAN 13
7 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING OF JEWELS 11
9 ITS A HOOT 21
10 STRATEGIC MISS 51
11 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
12 LOOK LOOK 51
13 BRO TOWN NZ 34

Pretty keen on #4 Brian Buster Brown here, he enjoyed a good run in transit first up but despite being beaten he did make ground in a 28.2 closing split and beat the 3rd horse clearly so reckon he would towel these up with a repeat of that (pretty confident actually that if no real money for 3 or 5 that he will win so watch betting). #5 Royal Alchemist raced against some superstars as a young horse and was well backed when resuming from a 3 year break but did absolutely nothing but must have been showing something and might even find the front tonight. #11 Scarlett Blaze is very honest and despite the draw making things tough won't be too far away. #1 Anoptomist finally draws a gate and despite his form not looking too flash on paper he has actually been going okay so don't discard. Of the remainder there are a few with question marks around them, #3 Line The Pocket is a well bred first starter who has been okay at the trials, #6 Melman is no star but will whack away, #8 King Of Jewels was gassed in front last time and should get a cheap run from here and might be the blowout and #9 Its A Hoot resumes but is a decent sit/sprint type at his best
Ratings 4/5/11/1/8/3,6,9

Race 5

1 EARL HICKEY 26
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.6
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
4 IM LE FREAK NZ 34
5 GUERRERO 51
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 51
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DENVERS BOY 9
9 NEW YORK FELLA 26
10 MICKEY DELAHEY 26
11 BAYFIELD HIGH 34
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 9

#2 Biggernbettermax grows a leg when he leads and looks like that will be the case here, he is more tough than brilliant but on the pegs in front he will run home in the 57s and therefore make it impossible for anything in this class to run him down. The only half query is that there is plenty of gatespeed around him but he has plenty himself so should lead as should keep the ones outside him out early and the pole would surely hand up. #12 Touchwood Bucksta is simply flying and on ability could possibly beat the fav but from its draw will probably be giving him a 30-40m head start so hard to see him winning but is still the main danger, #8 Denvers Boy has really stepped it up this time in and whilst he also gets an average draw will be in the placings with average luck. The rest are all quite even to be honest but minor place prospects only
Ratings 2/12/8/field

Race 6

1 RIKKISU 26
2 DELTA DEE DEE 21
3 TOWN TRICKSTER
4 CHERYL MARY 21
5 NOELSGIRL 3.8
6 BREZHNEV LEIS 3.8
7 DUSTY KALENA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
10 IDEN NOSHOT 8

Tricky little race but #6 Brezhnev Leis looks the safe option here, probably doesn't have the ability of a couple of its rivals but is honest and does things right, should press forward from the gate and won't be far away at the finish. #5 Noelsgirl has plenty of ability but its hard to back considering she has galloped in all of her starts bar one but has to be respected as probably wins with a foolproof display, #7 Dusty Kalena is another with plenty of tricks but also has a big motor so despite the draw may surprise if on best behaviour. #9 Odins Dragon Rider had its chance to win last time after getting a soft lead but the thing that may get overlooked here is that it still beat home nearly all the main danger today so might be over the odds, #10 Iden Noshot was disappointing in that race after having a good trip but is too good to dismiss completely and I thought #8 Smokin Mustard ran very well leading up the 3 wide line and battling on well in a sub 59 closing half. Even the other 3 aren't totally hopeless but the winner should come from the top 6 in the market
Ratings 6/5/9/7/8,10

Race 7

1 TOPUP 11
2 DANCE OF THE DEITY
3 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 5
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 9
5 RAMBLIN CULLEN 11
6 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6
7 ULOS 7
8 RONNIE RAT 17
9 ANGUS MCGREGOR 21
10 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 4

Very difficult race to end the Quaddie, at first glimpse it appears #10 Cosmic Under Fire has found another good race for him but the conditions of this race make this a heap tougher than previous few as he meets most rivals 20-30 metres worse off than in past couple so you don't want to be taking silly odds. He still goes on top though. #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper is always a chance in a stand with his manners, #7 Ulos has returned to his best of late and went okay behind #10 a couple of runs back and #6 Majestic Emperor looks quite well placed on the handicaps. Also have plenty of respect for any runner off the front in a stand with ability and all of #1 Topup, #4 The Musics Over and #5 Ramblin Cullen fit that bill as if the step an
d get a soft run its hard to see anything giving them 40 metres and beating them
Ratings 10/3/7/6/1,4,5

Race 8

1 HELLO NOT BAD 15
2 KOIZORA 3
3 LITTLE ELF 2.2
4 OUR LAST KNIGHT 8
5 TIME TO PRAY 13
6 DEEJAY BROMAC 17
7 DREAMON DONNY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GIRLS IN PINK 21
9 GUNBOWER JACK 51

This is a reverse points order race so the form of all runners is awful and doesn't instil a ton of confidence betting wise. Really think the 2 ex Victorians look better than the rest but still a bit of an educated guess. #3 Little Elf has raced against some very good horses and been competitive at times so whilst his previous form has been average at best you simply have to respect what he can do. #2 Koizora is pretty similar to #3 in that raced against decent horses in Victoria and form tapered off dramatically of late but you must respect. Of the rest, #4 Our Last Knight ran a cheeky race last time in a leader dominated event and might appreciate the drop in class. Going to leave it at that as hard to provide a supportive argument for any of them to be honest
Ratings 3/2/4/field

Race 9

1 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 6
2 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 17
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 8
4 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 3.5
5 PENNYS DRAGON ($5,000) 5
6 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 13
7 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5

The Claimer finishes the night and reckon #7 Bonnie Wee Laddie will atone for a luckless run last time at first start for the Hillier camp, plenty of tough types off the front should ensure a decent tempo and the small field also assists his sit/sprint style, #4 Waterloo Bay has been almost unbeatable in these stand start claimers for a while but think the gap has narrowed now and they are pretty even but he does things right so will always be a hope. #1 Costa Smerelda ran a terrific race last time death seating and finishing close up and if stepped to the front would be the one to beat and there is also a watch on #5 Pennys Dragon who is having first start in this grade. Haven't mentioned #3 The Cherokee Chief as yet either and he was only beaten a metre last time against a similar field and the other 2 runners aren't completely hopeless either. Just a typical stand start claimer
Ratings 7/4/1/5/3/2,6

Sunday Tips

Hobart - all races

R1#6 Blacktie Affair
R2#6 Iden Justasmyrk
R3#1 Bide Your Time
R4#4 Brian Buster Brown
R5#2 Biggernbettermax
R6#6 Brezhnev Leis
R7#10 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#3 Little Elf
R9#7 Bonnie Wee Laddie

Best Bet:
Brian Buster Brown

Been meaning to complete the preview for the past 3 days but keep getting visitors (joys of living on the Gold Coast) but will definitely finish by mid afternoon Sunday

if So You Think was a Pacer Today .....

HE WOULD START $1.50

Was thinking about this whilst looking through the form for the Underwood, he looks certain to race up on the speed without being pressured and be able to press the button whenever he wants to. Imagine what price a Harness horse would be with his formlines - won the Group 1 championship last year (Cox Plate), first up beat Whobegotyou, Shoot Out and Typhoon Tracy who came out and ran the trifecta at their next start, looks certain to get a soft early split, ..... the list goes on. $1.50 would be absolute tops I reckon

Similar to the harness scenario, I will also quinella him with Heart Of Dreams who draws barrier 1 and will be taking the short way home

Just hope Bart doesn't decide to use this race to "teach him to settle" as just had a crack at the evens on Centrebet

Also reckon Doubtful Jack will get out to juicy odds with all the hallmarks of a horse bookies love taking a set against plus being back on top of the ground so I am going to back him top fluc

A Few For Friday

Wagga
3.43pm R3#3 Lucknow Lady

Cranbourne
2.20pm R3#4 Hurricane Homer
2.55pm R4#2 Christian Shadow
3.30pm R5#5 Bulldozer

Globe Derby
7.35pm R3#5 Hilton Adonis

Harold Park
6.30pm R1#5 Andyourgoodtogo
9.00pm R6#3 Caesar Supreme

Gold Coast
7.24pm R2#9 Beach Warrior

Melton
7.42pm R3#8 Johnorama
8.42pm R5#2 Stephs Caesar
10.14pm R8#6 Thats Mister Ali

Hobart, Sunday September 19 early markets

Race 1

1 BREATHING FIRE 13
2 LOLA BROMAC NZ 4.5
3 BAJARDO RIVER 11
4 JET BLACK FLYER 4.5
5 THABELA BRIOSO 21
6 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.5
7 HELVIK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DOVES PATCH NZ 17

The mares start the night over the mile trip and whilst its not usually a good practice tipping sit/sprint horses in mile races, I have settled on #6 Blacktie Affair to come out on top. Thought the drive left a bit to be desired last time and the small field really helps. There also looks to be plenty of speed so given even luck she should be able to reel them in. Spotted #2 Lola Bromac run a very cheeky race last time where she was the sole survivor of the early speed burn and if she led here could give plenty of cheek (the worry with her is that the pole has plenty of early toe so might not get there and she lacks the speed to come wide and win). #4 Jet Black Flyer continues to race well and whilst not as well drawn here is still a chance. #3 Bajardo River ran a bottler at huge odds in a similar field and should get a good trip from this draw so don't dismiss. Of the rest, #1 Breathing Fire was well supported first up when led and found nothing but draws to lead again and the shorter trip may help, #5 Thabela Brioso hasn't enjoyed much luck of late but this is tougher, #7 Helvik resumes and has ability but the draw makes it extremely tough and #8 Doves Patch also has ability but simply does too much wrong to be a betting proposition
Ratings 6/2/4/3/1,5,7,8

Race 2

1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 13
2 TITLED 34
3 CRASH CART 4
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 13
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 13
6 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 1.8
7 SAMMYDREW 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PADDY MY BOY 51
9 THE BULLIONAIRE 21

#6 Iden Justasmyrk has won well at past 2 starts and looks a clear top pick again, he has been driven off the speed at past couple but would be very surprised if he didn't go forward here as can certainly work in his races. #3 Crash Cart is screaming Out to win a race and is a definite danger but does need things run to suit. One of the duo should definitely win but both #4 Livin In Heaven and #5 Cullens Count are very honest and if the favs don't get it there way may capitalise.
Ratings 6/3/4,5/1/7,9

Race 3

1 BIDE YOUR TIME 3
2 MURPHYS ROCKET 3
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 RISENSHINE 51
5 MOST HAPPY JASPER 11
6 MISTER GUNADOO 8
7 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LOCKDOWN 8
9 FLYING JASPER 17

Really struggling with this race I have to admit, settled on #1 Bide Your Time who went okay at first start back from a long spell and from this draw will get every chance, #2 Murphys Rocket has been going okay in Victoria and whilst down on his best form he would beat these at his best but its impossible to assess him at first start in the state. #6 Mister Gunadoo was well backed and well driven to score when resuming and despite the draw making it tougher here still comes into the mix and #8 Lockdown had no luck at all first up and may improve with a cold run from the draw. #3 Liskens Gift is an honest one paced type who gets his best draw in a while and #5 Most Happy Jasper also ran a cheeky race last time
Ratings 1/2/6,8/3,5/9/7

Race 4

1 ANOPTOMIST 8
2 KOIZORA (Em 1)
3 LINE THE POCKET NZ 13
4 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 2.5
5 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 11
6 MELMAN 13
7 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING OF JEWELS 11
9 ITS A HOOT 15
10 STRATEGIC MISS 51
11 SCARLETT BLAZE 8
12 LOOK LOOK 51
13 BRO TOWN NZ 34

Pretty keen on #4 Brian Buster Brown here, he enjoyed a good run in transit first up but despite being beaten he did make ground in a 28.2 closing split and beat the 3rd horse clearly so reckon he would towel these up with a repeat of that. #11 Scarlett Blaze is very honest and despite the draw making things tough won't be too far away. #1 Anoptomist finally draws a gate and despite his form not looking too flash on paper he has actually been going okay so don't discard. Of the remainder there are a few with question marks around them, #3 Line The Pocket is a well bred first starter who has been okay at the trials, #5 Royal Alchemist raced against some superstars as a young horse and was well backed when resuming from a 3 year break but did absolutely nothing but must have been showing something, #6 Melman is no star but will whack away, #8 King Of Jewels was gassed in front last time and should get a cheap run from here and might be the blowout and #9 Its A Hoot resumes but is a decent sit/sprint type at his best
Ratings 4/11/1/8/3,5,6,9

Race 5

1 EARL HICKEY 26
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.6
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
4 IM LE FREAK NZ 34
5 GUERRERO 51
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 51
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DENVERS BOY 9
9 NEW YORK FELLA 26
10 MICKEY DELAHEY 26
11 BAYFIELD HIGH 34
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 9

#2 Biggernbettermax grows a leg when he leads and looks like that will be the case here, he is more tough than brilliant but on the pegs in front he will run home in the 57s and therefore make it impossible for anything in this class to run him down. The only half query is that there is plenty of gatespeed around him but he has plenty himself so should lead as should keep the ones outside him out early and the pole would surely hand up. #12 Touchwood Bucksta is simply flying and on ability could possibly beat the fav but from its draw will probably be giving him a 30-40m head start so hard to see him winning but is still the main danger, #8 Denvers Boy has really stepped it up this time in and whilst he also gets an average draw will be in the placings with average luck. The rest are all quite even to be honest but minor place prospects only
Ratings 2/12/8/field

Race 6

1 RIKKISU 26
2 DELTA DEE DEE 21
3 TOWN TRICKSTER
4 CHERYL MARY 21
5 NOELSGIRL 3.8
6 BREZHNEV LEIS 3.8
7 DUSTY KALENA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
10 IDEN NOSHOT 8

Tricky little race but #6 Brezhnev Leis looks the safe option here, probably doesn't have the ability of a couple of its rivals but is honest and does things right, should press forward from the gate and won't be far away at the finish. #5 Noelsgirl has plenty of ability but its hard to back considering she has galloped in all of her starts bar one but has to be respected as probably wins with a foolproof display, #7 Dusty Kalena is another with plenty of tricks but also has a big motor so despite the draw may surprise if on best behaviour. #9 Odins Dragon Rider had its chance to win last time after getting a soft lead but the thing that may get overlooked here is that it still beat home nearly all the main danger today so might be over the odds, #10 Iden Noshot was disappointing in that race after having a good trip but is too good to dismiss completely and I thought #8 Smokin Mustard ran very well leading up the 3 wide line and battling on well in a sub 59 closing half. Even the other 3 aren't totally hopeless but the winner should come from the top 6 in the market
Ratings 6/5/9/7/8,10

Race 7

1 TOPUP 11
2 DANCE OF THE DEITY
3 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 5
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 9
5 RAMBLIN CULLEN 11
6 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6
7 ULOS 7
8 RONNIE RAT 17
9 ANGUS MCGREGOR 21
10 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 4

Very difficult race to end the Quaddie, at first glimpse it appears #10 Cosmic Under Fire has found another good race for him but the conditions of this race make this a heap tougher than previous few as he meets most rivals 20-30 metres worse off than in past couple so you don't want to be taking silly odds. He still goes on top though. #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper is always a chance in a stand with his manners, #7 Ulos has returned to his best of late and went okay behind #10 a couple of runs back and #6 Majestic Emperor looks quite well placed on the handicaps. Also have plenty of respect for any runner off the front in a stand with ability and all of #1 Topup, #4 The Musics Over and #5 Ramblin Cullen fit that bill as if the step an
d get a soft run its hard to see anything giving them 40 metres and beating them
Ratings 10/3/7/6/1,4,5

Race 8

1 HELLO NOT BAD 15
2 KOIZORA 3
3 LITTLE ELF 2.2
4 OUR LAST KNIGHT 8
5 TIME TO PRAY 13
6 DEEJAY BROMAC 17
7 DREAMON DONNY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GIRLS IN PINK 21
9 GUNBOWER JACK 51

This is a reverse points order race so the form of all runners is awful and doesn't instil a ton of confidence betting wise. Really think the 2 ex Victorians look better than the rest but still a bit of an educated guess. #3 Little Elf has raced against some very good horses and been competitive at times so whilst his previous form has been average at best you simply have to respect what he can do. #2 Koizora is pretty similar to #3 in that raced against decent horses in Victoria and form tapered off dramatically of late but you must respect. Of the rest, #4 Our Last Knight ran a cheeky race last time in a leader dominated event and might appreciate the drop in class. Going to leave it at that as hard to provide a supportive argument for any of them to be honest
Ratings 3/2/4/field

Race 9

1 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 6
2 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 17
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 8
4 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 3.5
5 PENNYS DRAGON ($5,000) 5
6 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 13
7 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5

The Claimer finishes the night and reckon #7 Bonnie Wee Laddie will atone for a luckless run last time at first start for the Hillier camp, plenty of tough types off the front should ensure a decent tempo and the small field also assists his sit/sprint style, #4 Waterloo Bay has been almost unbeatable in these stand start claimers for a while but think the gap has narrowed now and they are pretty even but he does things right so will always be a hope. #1 Costa Smerelda ran a terrific race last time death seating and finishing close up and if stepped to the front would be the one to beat and there is also a watch on #5 Pennys Dragon who is having first start in this grade. Haven't mentioned #3 The Cherokee Chief as yet either and he was only beaten a metre last time against a similar field and the other 2 runners aren't completely hopeless either. Just a typical stand start claimer
Ratings 7/4/1/5/3/2,6

Meeting Summary, Hobart September 12

Fairly standard meeting, no standout performances but a couple of decent form reference races

Run of the Night

Resurgence, simply a tough and honest horse who does it at both ends of a race. Have to put my hand up and say I under rated him (which is strange considering he did me some huge favours last campaign). Worked in lead time of 34.6 to find the front then dug deep in straight to cling on and win. I always thought his lack of high speed would hurt in the better class races and it still may but with his gatespeed and toughness he will be competitive in most races he contests

Drive of the Night

Joshua Duggan (Boozy Rouge), it looked a simple sit and steer job but I like to give this award to a driver who makes a decision in a race that helps them win. Hear way too many drivers get credit for great drives when they simply finish up in the right spot. Josh identified that he had to stay in front of one horse early (Saab Quality) so when the horse 3 wide in front of him pulled back into his lap he decided to pull 4 wide around the first turn and thus stayed in front of his main danger as the first one round would have found the front and the result may have been different if he didn't make that move

Also have to make mention of his father's (Ricky Duggan) drives on the night which were perfect on a number of occasions, every horse he drove received every hope. 5 horses in particular (Bide Your Time, Scarlett Blaze, Denvers Boy, Guerrero and Albert Jones) had every possible hope to win given where he positioned them in the run and it was simply a great display from a great driver

Slaughter of the Night

Glad to say that most drives weren't too bad, forced to pick on anything I would nominate Ken Austin (Gunbower Jack) and Brendan Gebel (Mountain Momma) who were both driving $100 pops and preferred to stay in the running line out the back instead of opting for the spot 3 pegs which was there for the taking. It is a great spot to be when an even money favourite is leading and you are on a bolter. As it was, the driver who took the initiative (Roger Brown, Cancellara) finished up running 4th whereas both Mountain Momma and Gunbower Jack were out wide gasping for breath at the 400. These 2 are unlucky to get nominated as see this thing happen every week in Tassie with most drivers having a serious aversion to being on the fence - it is still the shortest way home

Blackbookers (no standouts)

Crash Cart, hoof right on the till
Most Happy Jasper, encouraging at first run for new stable, might bob up at big odds shortly
Scarlett Blaze, every hope last night but beaten by a good one and cleared out from 3rd horse
Noelsgirl, finally put it together and certainly has ability
Smokin Mustard, did a bit of work and kept coming
Dusty Kalena, certainly going to win races when its manners improve
Touchwood Bucksta, really going well and chance in anything he contests

From the Sectional Times

Nothing outstanding but in the 3YO race, there were 3 horses who all went very well at big odds. The horses were Noelsgirl, Smokin Mustard and Dusty Kalena who were all wide in the last lap and they ran home in 28.9 and all 3 found the line strongly and therefore are worth following. Also thought Touchwood Bucksta went sensational later in the night coming from miles off the leader out wide to run 2nd in a 58.8 half
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.0, lead time 35.6 (bit quicker than average), first half 62.6, last half 59.0

Good class C1 event, speed was even throughout and may be a decent form reference going forward

Biggernbettermax (1st), did more work than anything and still too tough. Is more tradesmanlike than brilliant at the moment but will continue to pregress through the classes provided he draws well
Harbhajan (2nd), pulled very hard once again which told in the straight, that trait has probably cost him winning his past 2 starts now which is a concern. Would imagine they would be very quiet on him early next run
Crash Cart (3rd), very good run again, bit stiff to run into a couple going through the grades but he simply must win a race soon the way he is going. Beat the 4th horse clearly
Most Happy Jasper (5th), cheeky run at odds at first run for new stable, if he draws to lead in a mile race soon might be worth a bet
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.06.0, lead time 37.3 (very slow), first half 66.8, last half 58.5

Farcically run race and when the best horses in the race raced handy it was over a long way from home. Totally forget the runs of anything back in the field

Boozy Rouge (1st), well deserved win, got soft lead then walked and sprinted home in 27.9
Saab Quality (2nd), typical honest run, think he has to lead to win at open age level and still out of the draw for another run
Bide Your Time (3rd), very encouraging run at first start for 18 months, had a good run in transit and kept coming in the quick closing fraction
Ultimate Heir (4th), well driven to lead, hand up to right horse and maximise its finishing position
Monicas Notch (5th), not suited by tempo but was working home okay late
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.4, lead time 35.0 (fast), first half 61.2, last half 61.4

Strangely run race, always question marks around the form when the last half is slower than the first half. Did think the first 2 over line were very impressive though

Iden Justasmyrk (1st), had race run to suit but was a mile off the leader at the 1200 mark so his sectionals would actually be okay. He continues to improve and should get through a couple more classes pretty quickly
Scarlett Blaze (2nd), good run for the 2nd week in a row. Finished a long way in front of the 3rd horse so his hoof is right on the till
Thirtysixtoes (3rd), well driven and plugged home
Melman (4th), honest run, neither overly good or overly bad
Artifice (6th), did way too much work early, was a shocking price though (for 2nd week in a row). She is way better suited over mile trips, against her own sex and driven with cover so was 0/3 on that front yet was sent out as fav????
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.03.2, lead time 37.3 (very slow), first half 64.0, last half 58.7

Best horse won but merit in the runs of the first 5 over the line

Bettor Draw (1st), simply too classy, also was put into the race this week unlike when first up and sat last the entire race in a slowly run race
Odins Dragon Rider (2nd), had every possible hope given the sectionals but was beaten by a fair horse.
Noelsgirl (3rd), did it right for the first time and was a very good run
Smokin Mustard (4th), went a lot better than past couple being 3 wide without cover from bell in 58.7 half and never shirked the task
Dusty Kalena (5th), continues to have issues with manners but is going to be a handy horse when this racing caper clicks
Iden Noshot (6th), very disappointing, had perfect run in transit and didn't find much late
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - C3-C4, 2090m, mile rate 2.00.7, lead time 34.6 (very fast), first half 62.3, last half 59.8

Went very quickly early in this and nothing ran home. Very fence dominated race and first 4 cleared out

Resurgence (1st), good honest horse who can do it at both ends of a race. Has now won 4 on end and this is the quickest he has run home (59.8) so how much further he can go is debatable but won't be far away in anything
Bayfield High (2nd), thought he was home halfway up the straight and had him going for plenty so wasn't happy!! Under rated horse who always runs well when draws okay
Mickey Delahey (3rd), looked to be travelling okay when run came but just plodded home
King Albert (4th), very average, had perfect run in transit and didn't give much despite the slow closing fractions
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.1, lead time 36.3 (average), first half 62.3, last half 60.0

First 3 over line clearly superior to the rest

Denvers Boy (1st), enjoyed a good run in transit and too strong in straight
Jet Black Flyer (2nd), another good run, probably entitled to win but seems to race best when held up for a late crack at them
Cullens Count (3rd), enjoyed a soft run and battled on well as usual
Chanceabet (8th), disgraceful. Gone at bell and beaten a mile
Doves Patch (9th), galloped again, horse is a fair dinkum fruit loop
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.03.7, lead time 37.0 (slow), first half 64.8, last half 58.8

Fav led, set a slow speed and bolted in. 2nd horse went okay and resy very bunched

Still Royal (1st), showed surprising speed to lead and was always going to win
Touchwood Bucksta (2nd), probably went as well as the winner coming wide from last and nothing took him into the race
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - Claimer, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.4, lead time 37.4 (very slow), first half 62.8, last half 58.8

First 3 a mile better than the others

Ulos (1st), surprisingly short odds and had to pull out all stops to win. Good win though as both placegetters are going okay and had to give both a start
Albert Jones (2nd), enjoyed a perfect run and just run down. Continues to race well
Jefferson (3rd), clearly his best Tasmanian run, getting close to a win

Sunday Tips

Hobart - tips all races

R1#5 Biggernbettermax
R2#4 Boozy Rouge
R3#12 Iden Justasmyrk
R4#4 Bettor Draw
R5#9 King Albert
R6#7 Chanceabet
R7#11 Touchwood Bucksta
R8#7 Ulos

Best Bets
R3#12 Iden Justasmyrk
R5#9 King Albert

Best at odds
R7#10 Thabela Brioso (get around $10 I reckon)

Best Bolter
R4#10 Dusty Kalena

$100 Quaddie

2,4,9
9
1,3,5,7,8
1,4,10,11
$40 gives 66%

2,4,9
1,2,3,6,7,9
1,3,5,7,8
10,11
$60 gives 33%

Full preview below

Hobart Sunday August 12, full preview

Race 1

1 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 13
2 LADY ELEANOR 41
3 MOST HAPPY JASPER 26
4 CRASH CART 9
5 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.8
6 TITLED 101
7 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HAVILAH HAWK 67
9 HARBHAJAN 3.5

#5 Biggernbettermax gets into another winnable race here, must admit that I won't be jumping in though as there are a couple of queries but if he finds the front which he should do he is mighty hard to run down. There is some speed under him though so despite having good gatespeed I don't have him as a certain leader hence my apprehension or would have priced him shorter as #9 Harbhajan has drawn to take advantage should the fav have to do it too hard early. Totally ignore his last run when used out of the gate and pulled himself into the ground (ran first 1800m in 2.12.7 which equates to a 1.58.6 mile rate). His previous form is first class when driven cold early so expect to see him back to his best from this draw. #4 Crash Cart is one I blackbooked at his last run but didn't expect him to run into a couple of good ones but still some chance, he is back in the draw for the first time in ages so his gatespeed is totally unknown but is a must for exotics as is #1 Pearls From Heaven who always runs an honest race when drawn well and whilst she probably can't beat the favs will be thereabouts somewhere. #7 Topotheclouds is another who never runs a bad race but may struggle a tad from this gate. If going wide in exotics, maybe include both #2 Lady Eleanor who has early speed and #3 Most Happy Jasper who is first up for a new stable
Ratings 5,9/4/1/7/2,3

Race 2

1 MONICAS NOTCH 6
2 PARADIGM GIRL 21
3 RISENSHINE 41
4 BOOZY ROUGE 2.2
5 PADDY MY BOY 21
6 BIDE YOUR TIME 17
7 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 11
9 SAAB QUALITY 3.8

#4 Boozy Rouge hasn't enjoyed the best of luck recently and looks to have found a nice race here, shouldn't be any excuses anyway. He usually races best when not used early but would imagine that would go forward at some stage here and just outplug them late. #9 Saab Quality is a very good horse who tends to race best from the front of the field so the draw does him no favours but if he can get into the race early will definitely make a race of things with Boozy. Of the rest, #1 Monicas Notch is a one paced type and from this draw with not much speed off the front row may improve a lot on recent runs. One of that trio should definitely win but #8 The Bullionaire is always a blowout chance if he gets the right run and from this draw that just might happen. #6 Bide Your Time is an interesting runner resuming with good form in easier races prior to a spell but trial looks plain on paper but respect any betting moves
Ratings 4/9/1/8/2,5,6

Race 3

1 EMMA ETOILE 34
2 THIRTYSIXTOES 17
3 GIRLS IN PINK 34
4 STRATEGIC MISS 21
5 ARTIFICE 4
6 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 21
7 DREAMON DONNY 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BRO TOWN NZ 17
9 MELMAN 9
10 SCARLETT BLAZE 13
11 DEEJAY BROMAC 101
12 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5

#12 Iden Justasmyrk looks clearly better than his rivals here and if not for the barrier would almost be a good thing, he is big and tough though so can certainly overcome the draw and reckon he wins easily if driven aggressively early. #5 Artifice has been a shade disappointing this time in despite winning 2 of 4 starts as both of those were in very average time. Think she is better suited against her own sex but the barrier draw advantage over all the other chances here brings her into play as could get a very cheap lead. #9 Melman had every hope when winning first up but did beat a decent field and although not as well drawn here still looms as a chance. #10 Scarlett Blaze boxed on okay last time and finished well clear of the 5th placegetter and has definite place claims, #8 Bro Town has ability when right and should get a cheap pegs run from the draw, #2 Thirtysixtoes is another who is competitive in most races but from the draw is a must include for exotics. #6 Ima Blissfull Bell is an interesting runner, was kept very safe in a good field when resuming and did absolutely nothing but is better than that and #4 Strategic Miss whacks away and might sneak a place
Ratings 12/5/9/2,8/6/3

Race 4

1 AWESOME BUDDY 26
2 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5.5
3 GUN FILLY 13
4 BETTOR DRAW 3.2
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 17
6 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 51
7 DELTA DEE DEE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 21
9 IDEN NOSHOT 3.8
10 DUSTY KALENA 21
11 NOELSGIRL 51

#4 Bettor Draw looked a shade disappointing on face value last time but in hindsight had little hope the race was run settling last in a slowly run race. His form prior to last run was good enough for this, he draws better and gets Gareth and also should be driven more aggressively from this draw so is the top pick. #9 Iden Noshot won the race last week and this isn't the worst draw for him either with his sit/sprint style as should trail through early into a handy position and be the one coming home late. #2 Odins Dragon Rider ran 3rd in that same race last week and from this similar draw should be close up again. One of that trio should win but #3 Gun Filly has run a couple of cheeky races from bad draws lately so might be a chance here, #5 Town Trickster was a decent run in a leader dominated race at last start as was #8 Smokin Mustard and #10 Dusty Kalena is one who has shocking numerical form but certainly has some ability when gets it right so might bump up the exotics
Ratings 4/9/2/3,5/8,10

Race 5

1 MICKEY DELAHEY 7
2 BAYFIELD HIGH 11
3 PHANTOM JASPER 8
4 ODINS CONSTANTINE
5 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
6 NEW YORK FELLA 8
7 RESURGENCE 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
9 KING ALBERT 2.8
10 ROSLYN AREFLYING 26

Looks very well placed in this #9 King Albert, has been very competitive of late in C4 or better races and with the junior driver lift here gets into a C3-C4 race that is much easier than he has been meeting. The only downside is that he hasn't won for 20 starts but should be quite backable so happy to be on. The remainder of the field are very even, #1 Mickey Delahey had every possible last time and just missed but draws to get every hope again, #4 Odins Constantine had 2 mobile starts last campaign and led and bolted in both times so must be respected at first start back. #3 Phantom Jasper is an honest type who benefitted from a stagger home last time, #2 Bayfield High has speed and from the good draw must be included, #6 New York Fella was a little unlucky last time but draws awkwardly this time and #7 Resurgence is a good honest type who has won his past 3 starts but its worth noting he never broke 60 the last half in any of those wins and draws 7 here so is a place hope only. To sum it up, I am keen on King Albert and confident he beats the rest with a slight query on #4 Odins Constantine first up
Ratings 9/1/2,3,6,7/field

Race 6

1 JET BLACK FLYER 3.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 51
3 DOVES PATCH NZ 6
4 RED RIVER GEE GEE 34
5 DENVERS BOY 4.2
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 CHANCEABET 4.2
---------- Second Row ----------
8 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
9 CANCELLARA 17

Struggled a bit with this race as all the chances are coming through differing formlines so a bit hard to assess. #1 Jet Black Flyer gets the draw and the form around her has stood up so goes on top. The only query with her is that her best runs have been when driven with cover and not sure if they would hand up here if she can retain the front. #5 Denvers Boy has really come in at past few, he will go forward and despite looking a little plain when winning last time I think that was more to do with him switching off after walking mid race. #7 Chanceabet would definitely have been my top pick from a better gate as his 2 runs for the Ford camp have been enormous and he does make his own luck so still a major player. The query runner is #3 Doves Patch who does plenty wrong but certainly has ability and this is the first time she has drawn a gate in Tassie so improvement certainly wouldn't surprise and #8 Cullens Count gets the draw to have a soft run and is going okay of late. Pretty confident that winds up the chances with #9 Cancellara being the only other place hope but he has been below his best this season and its worth noting that in his last 2 races where he has been placed that they staggered home in 32 each time
Ratings 1,5,7/3/8/9

Race 7

1 STILL ROYAL 6
2 GUERRERO 13
3 AS YOU WISH 11
4 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 5
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 26
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LOCKDOWN 13
9 WEEMALANEWS
10 THABELA BRIOSO 6
11 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 4

Terribly difficult race to sort out, have settled on #11 Touchwood Bucksta who despite being somewhat flattered to win last time courtesy of a fence hugging drive still ran good time coming from last in a 57.7 closing half. Will obviously need some luck from this draw but will be right in the mix if he gets any. #10 Thabela Brioso might be the value as last run doesn't look too flash on paper but its worth noting that she did a ton of work from barrier 7 to get the death seat in a very fast lead time followed by a 60.9 opening half so was no surprise to see her tire. #4 Touchwood Teeksta loves to lead in its races and might just get there here and would be the horse to beat if he did. #1 Still Royal is another who is racing consistently and the start will be crucial to him as got headed easily the last time he drew the pole but if he could hold his position early would be a major player. Also have to afford chances to most other runners so its a field job for the minor end of the exotics
Ratings 11/4,10/1/3,5/2,8/field

Race 8

1 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 5
2 NIBEBO ($5,000)
3 THE CROWD PLEASER ($5,000) 21
4 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 21
5 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 3.5
6 JEFFERSON NZ ($10,000) 3.5
7 ULOS ($10,000) 3.2

The Claimers revert to the mobile here and I am really struggling to split the bottom 3 runners. Forced to pick one would go with #7 Ulos who I spotted run well last time making ground out wide in a 57.6 half but he will probably settle last here so hard to be confident. #6 Jefferson went okay in a stronger Claimer at Melton last time and this is easier and #5 Albert Jones probably threw victory away last week with a mid race error. Will probably come down to who gets the right run from the trio but I won't underestimate #1 Secret Rendezvous who has been disappointing at past couple but has a great record in these mobile Claimers as a rule. That quartet should really fight things out
Ratings 7/5,6/1