1 ASHINAGA $13 has only battled since resuming but had poor barriers to contend with so may be an improver from the pole but place still best
3 DUART CASTLE $4.5 worked home okay last time but the closing split was pedestrian so was a tad flattered, his winning chances depend if he can lead as grows a leg when he does but would be place at best if he didn't ;ead
4 ASHKALINI $3.5 ran her worst race in ages last time but is generally a model of consistency so is an EW hope as usual
5 BILLABONG BERTIE $6 should find this easier than recent assignments in discretionary races but still only an EW prospect
6 THE JOUSTER $13 consistent type who enjoyed a gun trip when winning last time, harder here but still some chance
7 AAPENNON $6 hasn't quite been at his peak since resuming but despite the draw is sure to run an honest race
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8 THE TIMELY TRADER $6 isn't going quite as well as he was a month ago but has still been competitive and might even enjoy the trailing draw after being used early a few times recently
Ratings 4/3/8/7/5/6/1
Form Analysis - as evidenced by market I really have no idea here with most of them racing below their best currently. Reckon the value may be to have something on Duart Castle as grows a leg when on the pegs and if can find the front will give a bit of cheek. Small bet only though as plenty of speed outside him
Race 2 - 6:05 PM
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY $51 racing well below best form and barrier isn't a huge advantage here either as dead set walks out so place at very best
2 ATTA JET $34 forget last run when knocked over, followed the pegs when placed at big odds prior and should cross the pole here and get a similar trip so one for exotics
3 HARLEKEN WIZED $34 been disappointing since resuming, would be a good place prospect on previous form but only a rough place chance based on past couple
4 IM LE FREAK $13 tends to excel in mile races but should get to the pegs first here so is a must for exotics
5 WEEMALANEWS $51 opportunist mare who looks likely to struggle in this but may run past a few tired ones late so throw in for 4th if taking exotics
6 JARUZELSKI LEIS $1.6 exciting prospect who just held off another good one last time with a 27.4 closing fraction, despite the wide gate is clearly the one to beat again
7 FLYING DUBAI $26 improved effort last time but best afforts have always been when he can lead so place best from this gate
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8 GLORY JASPER $3.5 has dead set killed a couple of weak fields since coming to Tassie but the times haven't been startling and has only run home about 60 both times and will need to find a bit more here but still a major hope
Ratings 6/8/4/7/3/2/field
Form Analysis - look to be a couple of standouts here in 6 and 8. Jaruzelski Leis is my top pick though as is probably more versatile than Glory Jasper so can be put into the race which gives him more options in the run. Glory Jasper though has destroyed average fields in both Tassie runs with the one downside being the sectionals which have only been around 60 for the last half on both occasions. This also tips the scales in favour of the 6 who finished off in a 27.4 quarter last time
Race 3 - 6:31 PM
1 GENUFLECT $3.5 speedy filly who looks the leader and the only query is whether she will run the trip. Must go on top but not with a great deal of confidence
2 GRAND PASSION $7 had good support and only plugged home into 3rd last time from a sililar draw so prefer as a place hope again
3 JUST SOLDIER ON $ much improved effort last time and despite this being harder isn't the roughest
4 POKER STORM $7 hasn't quite come back at the level he was prior to a break but still pretty consistent and has EW claims again
5 LUKE THOMAS $5 very honest horse who is never far away and is due for a change of luck, has an awkward draw but can get into the finish with even luck
6 WUNDABABE $11 surprisingly taken back at the start last time and never figured, will probably go forward at some stage this week but place still best
7 IDEN NOSHOT $21 won a couple of races recently by leading and no hope of leading here, isn't the worst horse in the field but simply needs too much luck from here
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8 GUN FILLY $26 won a weaker race recently but despite this being much harder may sneak a place as draws to follow the likely leader
9 THE INNKEEPER $17 resuming here and has won a couple of recent trials, generally races best when can lead and form prior to a break was average but must keep somewhat safe based on trial efforts
Ratings 1/5/3/2/4/6/9
Form Analysis - another very hard affair to sort out but keep coming back to Genuflect who should lead and will probably win given a softish run in transit, do have doubts on her over this trip though if pressured so hard to back her with confidence. Just Soldier On is going to win very soon and despite getting into a tougher race here has EW claims and Luke Thomas never runs a bad race
Race 4 - 6:59 PM
1 LEVINA LEIS $2.5 driven aggressively when brained an average lot last time, has plenty of convictions but still sure to be in the finish from the gate
2 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE $21 honest little horse who generally runs okay from good draws but still prefer as a place prospect
3 THIRTYSIXTOES $26 likely to go round at big odds as usual but past few haven't been too bad and be no surprise to see her sneak into the exotics
4 HITTHEFRONT $34 has shown very good gate speed at both Tassie runs but never finished off, may go better with a sit but would need to so prefer others
5 ARK WEST $6 looked a shade disappointing last time but pay to forgive one run and would be a good EW chance here on previous form
6 HARBHAJAN $13 veteran resuming for new stable and has been okay at the trials but still prefer as a place prospect from the barrier
7 BIGBANG NITRO $51 has struggled since coming to Tassie and hard to see him figuring from this gate
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8 ZURBARAN $2.5 been a model of consistency lately and the 2nd row draw isn't a real issue as races best with cover so sure to be in the finish with even luck
Ratings 1/6/4/5/3/2
Form analysis - never been one of mine Levina Leis but was impressive last time and if gets it soft in front again will be mighty hard to run down, is another though with concerns if cops a bit in front so hard to back with confidence. Zurbaran is flying currently and should get the type of trip he enjoys here and given even luck late will go very close. Also suspect that Ark West will run an improved race here so keep safe and include in quaddies, etc
Race 5 - 7:26 PM
1 ONE WAY ROAD $9 past couple of starts have been atrocious, would be a chance on form prior but place best on recent runs
2 LISKENS GIFT $6 very dour customer who excels when he can lead, has a great EW hope if finds the fence yet only a very rough hope if he can't
3 LOADED BOMBER $26 has a bit of early toe but struggles on the bigger tracks, wait for him to get to Devonport before even contemplating backing him
4 THE INHIBITOR $3.5 having first start for new stable, has always shown glimpses of ability so despite recent form being poor and not trialling keep safe
5 BONFIRENITE $11 hadn't done anything of note in a long time but past couple haven't been too bad so not the worst
6 MOUNTAIN MOMMA $21 ran home okay when resuming but place hopes best from the draw
7 MAN OF THE MATCH $34 another who races best on smaller tracks so from this barrier looks no hope
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8 THE BULLIONAIRE $21 one dimensional horse with limited ability and place very best despite being likely to get a soft trip
9 FROSTY STUMPJUMPER $3.2 dour type best suited to when he can lead but looks well graded in this. Can also forgive latest 9th when out wide in a fence dominated race
10 YOUNG MILES $17 forgive latest effort when severely checked and is going a tad better than form suggests so might be one for exotics
Ratings 9/4/2/1/5/10
Form Analysis - pretty ordinary lot here but settled on Frosty Stumpjumper on top as can do a bit of work in his races and I expect him to be around the mark somewhere, the interesting runner is The Inhibitor who is first up for the Ford camp and did show glimpses with previous trainer so wouldn't surprise to see a big improvement from him. Almost go as far as saying that will win if heavily supported and has no hope if friendless in betting which makes it a hard race to sort out. Also have a healthy respect for Liskens Gift who generally grows a leg if he can lead and might just get there here
Race 6 - 7:48 PM
1 TOP MEMORIES $9 looked a shade unlucky last time and draws to get a gun trip here in a stronger race so is an EW prospect
2 VILLIFY $5 resuming from a spell and has been competitive against better than these in the past, trial form fair so has EW claims
3 PARIS EXPRESS $8 boxed on okay last time after a soft trip and may fill a place again with a similar run
4 SCARLET HEART $8 ran home okay when resuming but place prospects do appear best this time
5 BIDDY JONES $4.5 won a similar race recently and this is his best draw since so can figure
6 OUR BOY MACH $17 had every hope in a weaker race last time when just missed, would need a similar trip to figure here and doubt he can from the gate
7 IMA BLISSFUL BELL $4.5 interesting runner resuming and has been pretty good at the trials, was awful last time in though so betting moves may be the best guide. For a horse who once started odds on when beating Gedlee as a 2yo she sure has been disappointing
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8 FLIGHT TO LEFKADA $26 hasn't done a lot since coming to Tasmania and place best here
9 IN THE DOGHOUSE $34 hasn't done much in a while and prefer others
10 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $21 wasn't beaten far last week in a weak race so may sneak into the exotics
Ratings 5/7/2/1/4/3
Form Analysis - another average race with a couple of question mark runners but reckon Biddy Jones is the safe way to go as is likely to press forward early so will be making his own luck. Ima Blissfull Bell is the big watch first up as trialled pretty well recently and whilst form last time in is atrocious she did have very good ability as a juvenile so she might be on the way back so monitor betting. Villify always runs an honest race and from the draw is a must include. Hard to see anything else winning to be honest but wouldn't be totally shocked if anything won as its not a strong race
Race 7 - 8:15 PM
1 ROMAN TIMES $5 honest horse who plugs home well every week and this is his best draw in ages so is a good EW chance
2 MELMAN $2.8 always runs his best races when he can lead and looks a good chance of doing so here, also looks well in with the junior lift so sure to be in the finish
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE $21 one time promising pacer who hasn't done a thing in ages so prefer to see
4 PUBLIC EXPECTATION $34 how this horse won on debut is beyond me as has been woeful at next 3 starts so prefer others
5 MAZARAHTI $5 tough pacer who drops in grade here, doesn't win out of turn but will run on honest race
6 BERTILS ROCKET $17 runs home every week so once again a must for exotics
7 MARGABLEON $17 improved effort last time from the pole, obviously not as well drawn this week but not the roughest
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8 GLENFERN CRUISER $13 has finished close up at big odds recently so despite the awkward draw here isn't the worst
9 LUKE PETER $7 honest horse who lacks a bit of zip but won't be far away and if they overdo things up front he might be the one
Ratings 2/1/5/9/8/6/7
Form Analysis - looks a good race for Melman with the claim, looks a good chance of leading and has always raced best in that position but I do give live chances to Roman Times, Mazarahti and Luke Peter especially if there is a speed burn early as the 5 is certain to try his luck early so will probably play the overs amongst the quartet
Race 8 - 8:40 PM
1 CLEORA $2.2 talented filly taking on older mares here, clearly has more ability than her opposition here but I am always loathe to back early season 3yo horses taking on open age as even though she might win she is certain to be poor value
2 TRUMP LADY $34 past few runs have been a bit better but still only a place prospect
3 FACT NOT FICTION $11 going a lot better than figure form suggests and would have been competitive last time bar for breaking when in front, expect an improved showing
4 ROSIE HALO $34 yet to run a place in 8 career runs and despite not being far away on a couple of occasions is only a rough place hope here
5 TASPACEDOTCOM $17 is a 43 start maiden but hasn't been too bad at past few so may run an improved race at huge odds
6 TZU TZU PETALS $51 very limited mare and hard to see her figuring from this barrier
7 MAKEMINEMELBOURNE $51 hasn't done much since arriving in Tassie and was gifted the front last week and still did nothing so hard to have from the gate
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8 MAJESTIC ART $6 ran his usual honest race last week and an EW chance again despite the draw
9 CAMELOTPOCKETROKET $13 is yet to run a place but has always been in decent fields so may be an improver in this weakish race
10 HEZA TOOTA $4.5 looked a certainty beaten last week in a similar field, not as well drawn this time though so just an EW prospect
Ratings 1/10/8/3/9/5
Form Analysis - as alluded to in the form comment its hard to jump into an early season 3yo filly taking on older types but Cleora simply looks the winner. Punting is about value though and highly doubt she will be any value so maybe play a few exotics and throw in the others in the ratings. Fact Or Fiction wasn't too bad last time and may be silly odds here so might be worth a couple of coins
Race 9 - 9:05 PM
1 MISS STATELY $13 ran a cheeky race at huge odds last time and from this draw isn't the worst
2 HESIONE $3.0 improving type who has chased home Nitro Blue and Lombo Leonardo at past couple and with the drop in grade is sure to go close
3 VICKYMURPHY $21 ran a couple of decent races when first in Tassie but hasn't done much at past couple so place best
4 DIEBERPARTY $2.2 impressive debut winner and has also trialled well for his return so sure to run well. Only downside is that he won a very questionable form race (think about 7 metres covered the entire field) so may be unders
5 LILBITACHICKNFRIED $6 well related colt making debut and has been okay at the trials so keep safe
6 SPEEDMAKER $34 didn't do much at both runs prior to a break and hasn't been seen at the trials so prefer to see
7 METRO MASTER $13 form has tapered off at past few, be right in the finish on best form but place best from the barrier
Ratings 4/2/5/1/7
Form Analysis - another hard race to end the evening but settled on Dieberparty purely on the basis that is a boy taking on the girls. Has trialled pretty well for his return and did look impressive on debut but the form around the race he won on debut didn't stand up but he did look impressive that night. Hesione would probably be my top pick with Gareth on but Barrie drives her here plus is an 11 start maiden so a couple of worries. Bit of a watch as well on the well related and regally named Lilbitachicknfried