Not keen on much all day but for what its worth I reckon this one will win
Ballarat
R7#2 Manwarra Kismet, led and walked when won first start so usually not a strong form reference those races but looks the leader again and Ballarat is a dynamite leaders track
a couple off the video that might run a race
R3#4 Hitemup, ran a really cheeky race last time out and if you get $15 or so might be worth a small investment
R6#1 No Matter What, disgraceful drive last time when left the back of the odds on fav to come 3 wide at the bell. Demmler jumps on today and whilst I'm not sure if it can hold the front is going well and won't be far away
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Myth of the "One-One"
Over the past couple of decades there has been a number of changes within Harness Racing - most for the better but without doubt the biggest fallacy still in existence is that the "one out/one back" position is the best place to be in the run.
Since the inception of cambered 1000m tracks, races are run entirely differently than previously in that the first half is usually around 64 and they dash home. This pattern inevitably leads to a 3 wide train coming at the bell so the horse in the one/one either has to pull 3 wide without cover at bell or risk being pocketed and neither scenario is too inviting to me. Plus with the combination of cambered tracks and lighter sulkies horses don't drop off when caught wide as they used to.
However, if you did a straw poll of mug punters in a TAB most love their horses settling there and continually hear them screaming blue murder when a horse gives up that spot. I don't have the figures but I would imagine that more races are won by the following positions - leader, leader's back, death, 3 pegs, 3 wide with cover so what is the great attraction when I am positive that there are 5 more advantageous positions to be in during a race. I will grant that its a great spot to be if you are guaranteed that the death horse will run past the leader or the 3 wide horse will drop off at the 300 but there are no guarantees and hence I hate being on horses in the one/one as a rule.
Back in the days of 800m tracks when speed was on most of the way anything out wide usually dropped dead at the 400 so it was position "A" in that it gave you the option of having first crack at the leaders but we don't live in that age anymore any drivers and punters need to get their heads around that.
Just annoys me when I hear racecallers go into raptures when a driver positions a horse one/one.
Since the inception of cambered 1000m tracks, races are run entirely differently than previously in that the first half is usually around 64 and they dash home. This pattern inevitably leads to a 3 wide train coming at the bell so the horse in the one/one either has to pull 3 wide without cover at bell or risk being pocketed and neither scenario is too inviting to me. Plus with the combination of cambered tracks and lighter sulkies horses don't drop off when caught wide as they used to.
However, if you did a straw poll of mug punters in a TAB most love their horses settling there and continually hear them screaming blue murder when a horse gives up that spot. I don't have the figures but I would imagine that more races are won by the following positions - leader, leader's back, death, 3 pegs, 3 wide with cover so what is the great attraction when I am positive that there are 5 more advantageous positions to be in during a race. I will grant that its a great spot to be if you are guaranteed that the death horse will run past the leader or the 3 wide horse will drop off at the 300 but there are no guarantees and hence I hate being on horses in the one/one as a rule.
Back in the days of 800m tracks when speed was on most of the way anything out wide usually dropped dead at the 400 so it was position "A" in that it gave you the option of having first crack at the leaders but we don't live in that age anymore any drivers and punters need to get their heads around that.
Just annoys me when I hear racecallers go into raptures when a driver positions a horse one/one.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Harness Tips - Wednesday June 9
Cranbourne
R3#8 Diamond Fantasy - Disgraceful UNP
Devonport
(all of these won't be too short and all bar race 5 have a good chance of leading which puts them right in the mix around Devonport). Pretty average meeting though and not confident enough to declare anything. Forced to pick a best bet would go Prince Niadh or Glenwood Jasper
R2#2 Prince Niadh - 1st bolted in $2.70
R3#2 Seascape Artiste - legless UNP, last time I listen to mail from the trials
R4#3 Glenwood Jasper - 1st smashed em $1.80, $3.20 Betfair
R5#9 The Musician - sit/sprint dog who didn't get the run he needed UNP
R7#1 Good To Be Holme - 1st $6.40, doubt it will ever win again though
R8#1 Rocky Creek - UNP, absolutely no hope when it didn't lead as goes the same speed all day
Got some good mail for #8 in race 8 as well so also playing exotics around 1,3,8
Got nothing
R3#8 Diamond Fantasy - Disgraceful UNP
Devonport
(all of these won't be too short and all bar race 5 have a good chance of leading which puts them right in the mix around Devonport). Pretty average meeting though and not confident enough to declare anything. Forced to pick a best bet would go Prince Niadh or Glenwood Jasper
R2#2 Prince Niadh - 1st bolted in $2.70
R3#2 Seascape Artiste - legless UNP, last time I listen to mail from the trials
R4#3 Glenwood Jasper - 1st smashed em $1.80, $3.20 Betfair
R5#9 The Musician - sit/sprint dog who didn't get the run he needed UNP
R7#1 Good To Be Holme - 1st $6.40, doubt it will ever win again though
R8#1 Rocky Creek - UNP, absolutely no hope when it didn't lead as goes the same speed all day
Got some good mail for #8 in race 8 as well so also playing exotics around 1,3,8
Got nothing
Reasons for the Decline of Racing
Just read a very interesting blog post in the New York Times online by Bennett Liebman regarding the "Reasons for the Decline of Horse Racing" and whilst it was thoroughbred related, it certainly hits home with Harness Racing as well and well worth a read.
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/reasons-for-the-decline-of-horse-racing/
Nearly every point listed (all 15 of them) is relevant with Harness Racing but there were a couple of things that weren't touched upon that I will also add.
Bigger tracks produce better racing:
This is a total crock, by far the best races to watch are the Gloucester Park mobile races where they tend to run from the start yet they probably have the worst Metro track in Australia. Sure, I will grant that the best racing I have seen this year has been a couple of the Group meetings at Menangle but apart from those meetings it is the most boring place ever to watch a race. It all comes down to the quality and WA is the strongest state by far currently, other states don't simply offer racing opportunities for M2 or better horses and they are the ones the punters have built up some affinity with over time. Will also give Queensland a pass in regards to this issue as well.
In other words, stop spending millions on new tracks and instead put some money back in to retain the quality horses by having races they can go round in instead of being continually sold to WA or the USA.
Bigger fields create higher turnover:
Administrators get sucked in by a statistical anomoly that I will explain - as a rule, all races with 12 runners in the field are stand starts and its the impulse punter that makes the difference here. SKY will generally cross to a race whilst the mobile is scoring up so the impulse punters get about 20 seconds to get their bet on but in stand starts, getting 12 horses to stand still and get all the tapes across can take a couple of minutes but SKY always crosses early when the lines first start to take shape so instead of 20 seconds to bet they get around 120 seconds. That is where the extra revenue comes from guys, not the increase in field sizes. Just watch how much the win pool in a mobile race increases when there is a false start.
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/reasons-for-the-decline-of-horse-racing/
Nearly every point listed (all 15 of them) is relevant with Harness Racing but there were a couple of things that weren't touched upon that I will also add.
Bigger tracks produce better racing:
This is a total crock, by far the best races to watch are the Gloucester Park mobile races where they tend to run from the start yet they probably have the worst Metro track in Australia. Sure, I will grant that the best racing I have seen this year has been a couple of the Group meetings at Menangle but apart from those meetings it is the most boring place ever to watch a race. It all comes down to the quality and WA is the strongest state by far currently, other states don't simply offer racing opportunities for M2 or better horses and they are the ones the punters have built up some affinity with over time. Will also give Queensland a pass in regards to this issue as well.
In other words, stop spending millions on new tracks and instead put some money back in to retain the quality horses by having races they can go round in instead of being continually sold to WA or the USA.
Bigger fields create higher turnover:
Administrators get sucked in by a statistical anomoly that I will explain - as a rule, all races with 12 runners in the field are stand starts and its the impulse punter that makes the difference here. SKY will generally cross to a race whilst the mobile is scoring up so the impulse punters get about 20 seconds to get their bet on but in stand starts, getting 12 horses to stand still and get all the tapes across can take a couple of minutes but SKY always crosses early when the lines first start to take shape so instead of 20 seconds to bet they get around 120 seconds. That is where the extra revenue comes from guys, not the increase in field sizes. Just watch how much the win pool in a mobile race increases when there is a false start.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Harness Tips - Tuesday May 8
No best bets but taking a few on spec here
Bendigo
Race 1
6.35pm:
R1#1 Eisenheim, first starter for the Douglas camp and its trial looks ordinary on paper but was badly held up and made up about 15 metres over the last 200 so obviously should have won the workout clearly. Just hope it holds its position early to take advantage of the draw as mile races at Kilmore are that fence dominated it isn't funny. #5 The System Stride has also trialled extremely well so is a huge watch and whilst #6 Modern Girl has been disappointing she does have exceptional gatespeed which is a huge bonus over this trip
Suggested bet, something small on #1 and a tri 1,5/1,5,6,8/field
Both pretty average the first starters
Race 2
7.00pm:
Play multiples around 1,6,8 as look only three hopes
Suggested Bet - standout quinella 1/6,8
6 beat 1, quin a measly $4.10
Gloucester Park
Blackbooked this one at previous start but looks as if it will be short but thought I would post it anyway
R3#1 Bettors Ace, blew the start and made up a ton of ground against some very good ones last time and should account for this lot. Price the worry
Price wasn't the worry, ability was, led and UNP @ $1.40 .....
Bendigo
Race 1
6.35pm:
R1#1 Eisenheim, first starter for the Douglas camp and its trial looks ordinary on paper but was badly held up and made up about 15 metres over the last 200 so obviously should have won the workout clearly. Just hope it holds its position early to take advantage of the draw as mile races at Kilmore are that fence dominated it isn't funny. #5 The System Stride has also trialled extremely well so is a huge watch and whilst #6 Modern Girl has been disappointing she does have exceptional gatespeed which is a huge bonus over this trip
Suggested bet, something small on #1 and a tri 1,5/1,5,6,8/field
Both pretty average the first starters
Race 2
7.00pm:
Play multiples around 1,6,8 as look only three hopes
Suggested Bet - standout quinella 1/6,8
6 beat 1, quin a measly $4.10
Gloucester Park
Blackbooked this one at previous start but looks as if it will be short but thought I would post it anyway
R3#1 Bettors Ace, blew the start and made up a ton of ground against some very good ones last time and should account for this lot. Price the worry
Price wasn't the worry, ability was, led and UNP @ $1.40 .....
Monday, June 7, 2010
My Betting Technique
Obviously we all like to bet in different ways and need to find the optimum way to maximise profits and for me it is as follows:
- Only bet in races where I am confident of my speed map
- Place a lot of exotic bet types on those races, eg; trifectas, quinellas
- Only back individual horses that I deem are value based on my ratings
- Adhere to a constant staking level
Would no doubt be very different to a lot of people out there but it works for me. I find that if I get the speed map right and bet around who is going to lead, sit leader's back, etc that I really clean up on exotics but I really need to maximise those races as clearly there is a fair chance of getting nothing when I get it wrong.
I leave stand start and trotters races alone as too many variables and rarely back any horse from a 2nd row draw as I like to back horses who make their own luck racing on the speed. Also do not bet at tracks like Mildura, Stawell and Ararat as a rule as find there are just too many cowboy drivers when they race at those venues.
As I said previously, there are a million different techniques out there and I have found that this is best for me.
Harness Racing Carnivals, where are they???
I truly believe that this is an issue that Harness Racing in all states need to address. With the exception of the Mildura Cup carnival who market their event extremely well, I cannot think of another successful carnival held anywhere in Australia and with all due respects to Mildura it shouldn't be leading the way on this front.
People need a reason to go to events nowadays, may sound a bit pathetic but its a fact. Even the Inter Dominion with no Wednesday night heat anymore means people tend to just go to the Grand Final as opposed to the full fortnight in years gone by.
I always thought the Hunter Cup was the perfect opportunity to do something when it was being run on a Sunday afternoon in that you could have a Metro class meeting on the Friday night, a standard country assessed meeting on the Saturday night and the big day on the Sunday afternoon. It is probably the one meeting all year that provides the greatest calibre of horse flesh all round as there is the Hunter Cup itself, the blue riband Victoria Derby and a Group 1 trotters race so punters get to see the best open class pacers and trotters plus the best 3 year olds from both sides of the Tasman. As a punter, I would jump at the opportunity to attend a meeting in this format and spend 3-4 days mixing with other Harness Racing folk and I am sure other people would flock from around the country to attend. The Hunter Cup has recently reverted back to a Saturday night and whilst it certainly is a great night's racing, that is all it is - a great night.
The gallops as usual get it right and I am not just talking about the obvious ones such as Cup week or the Sydney Easter carnival, I am more alluding to the success they have at places like Warrnambool, Magic Millions, Wagga and Albury who encourage people not only to attend on their big day but to travel and make a week of it. As a Harness Racing enthusiast, I am always envious that my galloping friends get the opportunity to attend these events.
I also believe that it would work well in places like the Gold Coast or Tasmania where people like to go for holidays so if you give them an excuse they will come but you cannot take people for idiots so you have to provide a decent product if you are to get people coming back in subsequent years.
The opportunity is there for the taking, it only needs a proactive club to take a risk that may result in huge long term benefits. Most Harness Racing committees however are comprised of people who were involved in the caper during the halcyon days of the 1960s and struggle to comprehend that we need to change with the times. The needs and wants of people have evolved over time, yet we still conduct harness meetings in exactly the same manner as we did half a century ago. The format needs to be addressed.
To use the words of Shoeless Joe Jackson from Field Of Dreams "If you build it, they will come".
People need a reason to go to events nowadays, may sound a bit pathetic but its a fact. Even the Inter Dominion with no Wednesday night heat anymore means people tend to just go to the Grand Final as opposed to the full fortnight in years gone by.
I always thought the Hunter Cup was the perfect opportunity to do something when it was being run on a Sunday afternoon in that you could have a Metro class meeting on the Friday night, a standard country assessed meeting on the Saturday night and the big day on the Sunday afternoon. It is probably the one meeting all year that provides the greatest calibre of horse flesh all round as there is the Hunter Cup itself, the blue riband Victoria Derby and a Group 1 trotters race so punters get to see the best open class pacers and trotters plus the best 3 year olds from both sides of the Tasman. As a punter, I would jump at the opportunity to attend a meeting in this format and spend 3-4 days mixing with other Harness Racing folk and I am sure other people would flock from around the country to attend. The Hunter Cup has recently reverted back to a Saturday night and whilst it certainly is a great night's racing, that is all it is - a great night.
The gallops as usual get it right and I am not just talking about the obvious ones such as Cup week or the Sydney Easter carnival, I am more alluding to the success they have at places like Warrnambool, Magic Millions, Wagga and Albury who encourage people not only to attend on their big day but to travel and make a week of it. As a Harness Racing enthusiast, I am always envious that my galloping friends get the opportunity to attend these events.
I also believe that it would work well in places like the Gold Coast or Tasmania where people like to go for holidays so if you give them an excuse they will come but you cannot take people for idiots so you have to provide a decent product if you are to get people coming back in subsequent years.
The opportunity is there for the taking, it only needs a proactive club to take a risk that may result in huge long term benefits. Most Harness Racing committees however are comprised of people who were involved in the caper during the halcyon days of the 1960s and struggle to comprehend that we need to change with the times. The needs and wants of people have evolved over time, yet we still conduct harness meetings in exactly the same manner as we did half a century ago. The format needs to be addressed.
To use the words of Shoeless Joe Jackson from Field Of Dreams "If you build it, they will come".
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