Thursday, December 2, 2010

Hobart Preview - Sunday December 5

Currently still in outback QLD and I now sympathise for the countryfolk with their computer options, where I am currently is limited to Dial Up (didn't even know it still existed to be honest) with a lightning fast maximum download speed of 64kbps so god knows how long it will take this to upload.

Have also started on the Monday preview for Launceston but probably won't finish that until the weekend

Disappointed that Gedlee has drawn poorly again inside the 2nd row as reckon they might have turned the handlebars down from a good draw to give him a solid hitout prior to taking on the big boys. Its a seriously good race that he is in and won'tbe the walk in the park that he has enjoyed at previous few runs but he still should be winning despite the draw

Race 1

1 MATESFOREVER $3 lightly raced and impeccably bred horse who is unbeaten in 2 career runs. Resumes from a lengthy break and trial was just fair on paper but the stable usually give them a soft trial so very hard to assess but is certainly the best horse in the race at his top so monitor betting very closely
2 LE AMAZON NZ $15 first starter with no trial form to report and is the only progeny of an unraced dam, betting the best guide
3 ARKABE JEWEL $21 one paced mare who has struggled to get into the race recently, is back in the draw here so some improvement would not surprise
4 THIRTYSIXTOES $13 honest mare who has finished between 3rd nd 6th at past 12 starts, just lacks the finishing speed to win but will run her usual honest race
5 MERLIN OF CAMELOT (Em 1)
6 STRATEGIC MISS $34 last run was a shade better than it looked as was taken on in front, still looks too tough from this barrier though
7 DAYTIME JERRY $5 good run when resuming and despite the wide draw will be in the finish again
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 RIOT GIRL $8 having first start in the state and has decent Victorian form to her name so is a huge watch
9 MARACAS BAY $21 honest type who is better suited when drawn to lead but still a place chance
10 KING FOR A DAY $6 this is much easier than past few so is a definite chance of causing an upset
11 ASHINAGA $21 one paced type who might sneak into the minor end of exotics
12 KAROOLA TOWN $51 resuming and need plenty of luck from this gate
13 MATAI NIGEL NZ $26 only word to describe last run is woeful, obviously better than that but prepared to risk from this gate

Race 2

1 WOODY BEOURS $11 good run at first run back and draws to make further improvement here, a must for exotics
2 BIDDY JONES $51 average run when resuming and this is tougher so needs it easier
3 DENVERADO $101 looks completely outclassed
4 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS $5 resuming and is a filly taking on the boys here but looked like a horse with a big future at the end of her 2yo days. Hasn't been seen at the trials but I expect her to develop into a good filly this time in so keep very safe
5 WUNDABABE $15 another filly taking on the boys who looked a shade unlucky last time but this is harder so place at very best
6 IDEN NOSHOT $34 form tapered off at the end of his last campaign, maybe a place hope at his top
7 REALLY WESTERN $21 well deserved win last time in a weaker field but place hopes appear best from this barrier
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 BEAUTIDE $2.5 ultra impressive first up when beat a decent field on his ear running home 28.4, could not have drawn worse here though but go very close with even luck
9 JUST DANCE BABY $26 still a maiden but yet to run a bad race in 7 career starts. Can't see the maiden status changing here but is one to include in exotics
10 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ $4 disgraced himself when resuming when galloped and finished tailed off as a $1.30 fav. Has tons of ability and despite the draw can certainly win if on best behaviour

Race 3

1 HILTON EXPRESS $21 first starter who trialled 3 times in Victoria without setting the world on fire prior to heading to Tassie, prefer to see
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1)
3 THANKGODYOURLOADED $11 much better run last time although beaten decisively its worth noting that he beat the 4th horse clearly so a place hope again in a tougher race
4 CHARLIE GRATTAN $13 resuming and been competitive at this level in the past so is one for exotics
5 SHEEZ EXQUISITE NZ $34 didn't do much when resuming and wait until she shows a glimmer of form
6 INNASBROOK $3 resumes and went like a jet winning first up last time in, will no doubt be driven aggressively and hard to see anything posting him so the one to beat if right
7 PRETTYBOYTROY $5 been good at both Tassie starts from bad draws, gets a bad draw again but is a must include
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $21 draws to get a cheap run and might sneak into the minor end of the exotics as is never disgraced
9 SING AND DANCE $4.5 genuine mare resuming and has been trialling well, draws to get a decent trail through and will be running home late
10 INTHENICKOFTIME $51 been running fair races but this looks too tough
11 LINE THE POCKET NZ $26 been unlucky a couple of times but appeared to have his chance last time, wait until he draws a better gate
12 CULLENS COUNT NZ $51 past couple have been very disappointing and need a massive improvement to figure from this barrier
13 OUR KAIZAN NZ $17 racing without any luck at all of late, forget last run also when pulled 3 deep when the speed went on (half in 56.9) yet boxed on okay. Not the worst

Race 4

1 FLYIN INDI AIR $15 honest mare who runs a lot of placings, might run a cheeky race with the handicap edge but place hopes do appear best
2 STEELINGTON NZ SCR
3 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ $8 past 2 runs have been much more like her old self, runs into a couple of smart ones here but not without some claims
4 SWEETEN THE POT $26 honest mare who will find this much tougher than last start win, place best
5 SHEZ RYLEYMAK $1.8 champion mare who resumed from a break with a tradesmanlike win, worth noting that she has won 11 of 12 in Hobart and is generally safe from the stand so is the horse to beat again
6 CULLENS ANGEL $2.5 really came of age last campaign and finished the season taking on the likes of Make Mine Cullen and was quite competitive, stand start is some concern but she is very good also so should make a real race of it

Race 5

1 DELTA SANDS $34 won two runs back when led and walked in a weaker race, this is much tougher and place at very best
2 WIZARD JONES $17 cheeky run when had no luck when resuming and not without a blowout chance from the good draw
3 BRO TOWN NZ $26 goes best when drawn to lead but doubt he will cross the pole so minor place chance at best
4 WEEMALANEWS $51 another who runs best races in front so wait for an easier assignment
5 MERLIN BROMAC NZ (Em 1)
6 LEFT LOADED $2.5 very disappointing when resuming but did use a ton of petrol early in race so has some excuses, had trialled very well prior and form was super last time in so is still a clear top pick
7 HYDEHURST BOY $4 ran a very cheeky race behind Gedlee last time and if gets any luck from the wide gate will be right in the finish
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE INHIBITOR $51 will probably get a good run but wait until form improves
9 LOCKDOWN $13 has shown a welcome return to form at past couple and despite this being tougher is some hope
10 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $6 grown a leg recently and past two wins have been excellent and if there is a speed duel early he just might be the beneficiary
11 BIDE YOUR TIME $17 has chased home Gedlee at past 3 starts so will appreciate not seeing his rump but is going to need plenty of luck to win but is a must for exotics
12 OUR SIR LEW $51 going okay but needs to draw well as doesn't have the speed to come wide and win
13 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $34 has the ability to feature but simply cannot have from this barrier

Race 6

1 DRESSED IN BLACK $8 cheeky run from a bad gate when resuming, this is tougher but is still a legitimate hope from this draw
2 TOP MEMORIES $51 didn't do a lot when resuming, prefer to see
3 MIGHTY MYF $101 needs it weaker
4 MARGABLEON $4.5 very good run on debut, should have derived natural benefit from the run as well so will be right in the finish
5 HONEST ART $5 perfectly driven when just touched off late in a much tougher race, harder from this barrier but is a strong winning chance
6 ROMAN TIMES NZ (Em 1)
7 LOADED BOMBER $17 resuming and was racing in much tougher races prior to a spell so not the worst
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC $34 is a last start winner of a very weak race and lacks the zip to win this but might plug home into a minor placing
9 ARK RAID $3.8 is still a maiden but never finished further back than 4th in 6 career runs, was very good in defeat first up and is the one to beat despite the draw
10 AWAY DREAMING $21 resuming and hasn't been seen at the trials but prefer to see based on performances at first campaign but keep an eye on the market all the same
11 OPERATIVE CARD $17 first up run in Tassie was quite good, took the short way home but held ground in a 56.9 closing half. Draw does him no favours but certainly isn't the roughest
12 MOST HAPPY JASPER $21 led and didn't find much on Monday but previous form was okay so might go better driven with cover. Include in exotics
13 OUTBACK MACH $34 first starter who wasn't flash at the trials so prepared to risk from this barrier

Race 7

1 DODGERMEMATE $5 enormous win last time and would win with a repeat of that, as always with him though his manners can let him down so the start is vitally important
2 KEPT ART $26 resuming from a long spell but did trial okay recently and would be some hope in this at best. Include if going wide in exotics
3 ULOS $5 slightly disappointing on face value last time but don't think he goes as well when leading, on previous form would be the top pick so keep very safe
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $13 hasn't been at the top of his game this season but past couple have been an improvement, some hope if steps well
5 BONNY WEE LADDIE $17 cheeky run at this level last time, can't afford to do anything wrong but given the right run in transit he is always a hope
6 DANCE OF THE DEITY $4 enormous run last week and meets most rivals 10 metres better off at the handicaps, should be right in the finish
7 LOMBO LIMMO $13 hard horse to assess as recent mainland form is just fair but does have plenty of ability at best, watch for any confidence in betting
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 JUMPIN JACK JASPER $15 good stand horse who generally does everything right, should get a cheap pegs run from here and if the luck comes may surprise
9 WINGSOFANEAGLE $17 has really stepped up to the plate of late but this is by far his hardest test, has performed okay in stand starts previously so wouldn't be a huge surprise if he was in the finish
10 WINJAMMER $8 two excellent runs since resuming and going as well as anything in the race but the 2nd row draw inflates his price a tad
11 REDSIDE SHREK $34 impossible to back on performances this time in, hard to totally dismiss him though as the ability is certainly there but probably better to wait until he shows something
12 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34 the handicap virtually puts paid to his chances, decent stand horse but can't come around all of these

Race 8

1 GAMBLERS RUSTLER $11 interesting runner resuming, has tons of ability when right but no trial form so hard to assess where he is at. Has been competitive with very good horses in the past so you simply have to include him
2 STEP UP AND PLAY $11 good mare who was disappointing last time but has always raced best in front so prepared to ignore that run, might get to her favourite role in front here and be a great exotics hope if that occurred
3 PAUL ALBERT $201 outclassed
4 LUGOVOI LEIS $13 has returned to racing very well, was a notch below Gedlee as a 3yo and still looks that way now though but won't be far away
5 TWOGRANDAHAND $67 never runs a bad race but looks too tough for him
6 DOMANI GEM NZ $51 hasn't done much this time in, has ability when right but prepared to risk until he shows something
7 BILLABONG BERTIE $13 good thing beaten when resuming, has a tricky draw but still a must for exotics
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 GEDLEE $1.3 rising star who despite the awkward gate should be too classy
9 OPERATIVE DELIGHT $201 going better than form reads but this is simply too hard
10 SPRINGVALE FLYER $51 showed a glimpse of his old form when resuming, minor place hope again

Race 9

1 LILLANS GIRL $5 has run some cheeky races when leading in the past and won't find an easier race than this, if gets left alone might sneak away with it
2 LITTLEBITOFGLORY $101 form simply isn't good enough despite the weakness of this race
3 MERLIN OF CAMELOT $6 much better run Monday night, from this gate is an EW hope
4 ROMAN TIMES NZ $8 query runner resuming from a long spell, has been competitive with better than these previously so watch any betting moves as could definitely win on best form
5 EARL OF HIGHVIEW $34 unplaced in all ten career runs to date and prefer to see
6 BAINFIELD AROHA NZ $13 didn't do a lot when resuming but well up to this at best so don't dismiss completely
7 OMBRE OPERATEUR $7 interesting runner resuming, form is nothing to write home about but certainly has ability when right so keep safe
 ---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR $15 didn't do a lot prior to a spell but has since trialled reasonably and draws to follow the likely leader so include in exotics
9 THE BULLIONAIRE $4 looks very well placed on best form but has disappointed of late. This is much easier though so expect a much improved run
10 RISENSHINE $11 figure form is ordinary but hasn't been too bad and find this much easier than recent runs so not the worst
11 GUNBOWER JACK $101 hasn't shown anything for a long time
12 ITSALLABOUTTHEFOOD $41 hasn't done much to get enthused about but this is by far its easiest assignment so might improve a tad