Meeting saw some very bunched finishes which probably means that its hard to be confident in the races as a form reference. As far as blackbookers go, I only have one:
Just Make Our Deigh - finished close up in a 56.5 closing half on Sunday then ran home well again last night in a 28.3 closing fraction. Now that he is graded back to a C6 means that he simply has to get away with a race soon
Similar with the drivers, there weren't any real standout performances but I have to say that Alex Ashwood really impresses me and he is proactive in races which more drivers should be. 3 drivers had winning doubles on the card but it was the decision by Alex to make mid race moves on Honest Art and Still Royal that gets him the nod as neither horse would have been in the finish if he sat back in the running line.
Votes:
3. A Ashwood
2. J Walters
1. J Campbell
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Launceston Wednesday - Tips and Full Preview
Excellent class of meeting tonight for midweek grade, also confident that the track bias that existed on Sunday night won't be evident this evening as Launceston is a great track and usually very fair. From experience, the only time track bias usually occurs in Harness Racing is when there is a combination of the surface being top-soiled and major rain periods following which results in the loose soil being washed down the camber of the track making the inside like quicksand.
Whilst I have no idea if any topsoil was applied to the track it certainly did belt down with rain on Sunday and with Launceston hosting 2 meetings in the space of 3 days, they just might have dressed the track surface.
All Races
R1#7 Prince Calaf
R2#3 Hamish Sanz
R3#7 Royal Alchemist
R4#10 Honest Art
R5#5 Balencia
R6#9 Bonny Wee Laddie
R7#1 Teejay Fella
R8#5 El Jays Maverick
No best bet, warming to Hamish Sanz a tad but not ultra confident
Quaddie
1,3,7,8,10,12
3,4,5,8,10,11
3,5,7,9
1,5
Race 1 (hard race to sort out, winning hopes 1,4,7)
1 MATAI NIGEL NZ $6 honest type with some gatespeed and does box on okay, fair bit of speed outside here but if he held up would take plenty of running down
2 JANSZOON $13 been fair in all Tasmanian starts to date, got beaten 30 metres by Prince Calaf at Devonport so hard to see him winning but a definite place possibility
3 SUSANNE JENNIFER $17 handy mare resuming and would need to be right at her best to figure, prefer to watch
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ $3.8 honest mare who is always hard to beat, this is her best draw in a while so is sure to be in the finish
5 INTHENICKOFTIME $34 is going better than form suggests but still looks too tough
6 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $8 gone very well at both runs since a spell (was badly held up first up so ignore the duck egg), not as well drawn this time but only needs even luck and could surprise
7 PRINCE CALAF $3 arrogant win at first Tasmanian start but this is an entirely different task with plenty of speed under him which means he will have to work much harder. Still clearly the one to beat as first up run was awesome
8 ROCKY CREEK $26 going okay but generally needs to draw well to figure so prepared to risk from out here but certainly not the worst
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WAIKOKO KING $101 first up run wasn't the worst I have ever seen but is still a 10YO who hasn't won for 4 years so impossible to come into
10 COMMANDER DATA $41 hasn't been too far away of late, generally races best at Devonport but still the best of the bolters in this
11 HIGHFLYIN FRED $41 resuming from a spell and hard to get enthused from this draw
12 ASHINAGA $34 very one paced type who isn't the worst in the race but from this gate will find it tough
Ratings 7/4/1/6/2/3/8
Race 2 (formline from race 3,6 come through is far stronger than the race 1,7 competed in last time)
1 PUBLICAN PETE $9 even run when resuming but this is much tougher so prefer place only
2 BENJI VEE $34 getting beaten in easier races
3 HAMISH SANZ $2.3 tough horse who is certain to be in the finish from here, reckon he can turn the tables on the stablemate
4 LACHIE JAMES $11 interesting runner who beat a good horse prior to a break, runs into a couple of smart ones here but is a big watch
5 TISU TOOTA $26 resuming and would need to improve on previous form to trouble these
6 KARALTA WIZARD $2.4 got a well deserved win on Sunday, never runs a bad race and is the one to beat again
7 SMILEUPONUS $8 very good run at Devonport and despite this being harder looks an improving type, a must for exotics
8 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51 simply doesn't look good enough
Ratings 3/6/7/1/4
Race 3 (7 holds the key to race as to which one shows up, raffle outside of him)
1 BERTILS ROCKET $7 opportunist type who generally runs well when gets a decent draw, looks a great exotics chance from this gate
2 BAJARDO RIVER $7 won at bolters odds last time and from this gate may surprise again as draws to get every possible hope
3 MOST HAPPY JASPER $15 form has dropped away at past few and want to see him doing something prior to including as a chance
4 STEELINGTON NZ $11 another honest run last time, never far away so one for exotics
5 LITTLE MISS AJAY $67 find this too tough
6 TENT PEG $67 unplaced in all 15 starts to date, prefer others
7 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $2.3 very hard to assess as won like a star 2 runs back then disgraced himself at subsequent run. Would win this on best form so must respect but as for backing him .....
8 AS YOU WISH $17 draw makes it tough but has ability but simply need too much luck to feature from here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SCARLETT BLAZE $6 got a well deserved win last time and whilst he is likely to get buried on the pegs here you must respect if he gets any luck
10 PROVENANCE $15 erratic type with ability but prefer to wait until he produces something
11 OUR KAIZAN NZ $4 unlucky last time when knocked over at the start, previous form was good enough to win this so will be right in the mix
Ratings 7/9/1/2/4
Race 4 (10 horse looks very well graded)
1 REALLY IMATIGERESS $9 wasn't a bad run at Devonport after suffering interference, each way hope from this draw
2 PRINCESS GANGSTER $101 getting beaten in easier races, wait until she shows something
3 ELLIE LATTE $9 had support but was just a fair run on debut, had trialled well prior to debut run so a massive improvement would not surprise, keep very safe
4 TRELAWNEY $51 need to improve on debut effort
5 NO TIME TO DREAM $26 got knocked over when resuming and not the worst, one for exotics
6 INCHBYINCH $11 had his chance when resuming and led and got run over at Devonport, this race is about the same level so not out of calculations
7 PRETTYBOYTROY $8 interesting runner having first start in the state for an in form stable, watch betting very closely
8 LINE THE POCKET NZ (Em 1) $8 forget last run when wasn't put into the race then suffered interference, previous run was super and even from this gate has a chance
---------- Second Row ----------
9 APACHE ALBA $21 honest run last time when chased the pegs home, likely to get same type of run here so a place hope again
10 HONEST ART $3.8 looked very unlucky last time and this race looks easier if anything, the one to beat
11 THE ACES $21 well driven to place when resuming, much harder from this draw and minor exotics hope only
12 LOOK LOOK $7 very good run last time and with even luck from this draw will figure in the finish
13 TOP PREMIER $21 is always running home and one day the planets will align and he will blouse them but prefer place only
Ratings 10/12/8/7/1/3/6/9,11,13
Race 5 (very hard race, 5 the safe bet as will be put into race)
1 OUR SIR THOMAS $13 draws to get the type of run he loves but not sure if he is at the top of his game so prefer as a place prospect
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $21 racing well below his best and whilst he would be right in the mix at his top he hasn't done anything for a while so prefer to watch
3 KEPT CALM $7 has led and been run down late at past couple but did have his chance to win, may lead again here and if he does will be hard to beat again
4 RUSHIN COURAGE $8 had every hope after leading on Sunday, may go better driven with a sit so keep safe
5 BALENCIA $4.5 one paced mare who was enormous last time, sometimes leaves herself a sitting shot but is very tough and will be in the finish for sure
6 THE INHIBITOR $34 has ability but not racing well currently
7 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $34 would be some chance from a better gate but looks too tough from here
8 CURRYNROSES $8 looks the easiest race she has struck for a while so a definite chance despite the draw
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TROJAN CALM NZ $26 really struggling for form and wait until she shows something
10 STILL ROYAL $8 honest pacer who ran a shocker last time, good chance if you overlook that run
11 MY CENTURION NZ $5 been competitive in harder races than this of late and is a definite chance here
12 KATES ALLY $51 very unreliable and tends to race best from front row draws to prepared to risk
13 MI MADEMOISELLE (Em 1)
Ratings 5/11/3/4/8/10/1
Race 6 (9 is better than them but 30m is a big impost over 2200m)
1 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $26 didn't do much when resuming so prepared to risk until he shows a glimpse of his old form
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $13 had a soft run last time and ran best race in ages, may be an exotics hope again with the same type of run
3 AUSSIE CULLEN ($5,000) $5 returning from a SA stint but would be well placed in this based on previous Tassie form at this level, big watch
4 POP BILLY ($5,000) $34 resuming and first start at this level but has run some cheeky races at huge odds from time to time, still prefer to watch
5 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $5 good win last time when pinged to the front, has been consistent at this level so an EW chance again
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $17 last couple of runs have been getting better but still needs to find more to figure
7 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $4.5 ran his worst race in ages last time, has been ultra competitive at this level for a long time so prepared to give another chance
8 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11 has disappointed recently, whilst he is well up to winning this on best form place chances appear best on current form
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) $3.5 absolutely flying at present but its an enormous ask to give a 30 metre start over 2200m, the one thing in his favour is the smallish field as means there are less runners to round up. Still a clear top pick
Ratings 9/7/5/3/8/2/6
Race 7 (1,4,5 look superior)
1 TEEJAY FELLA $3.0 went like a jet when he led and won two starts back then ultra disappointing last time, should lead here and if repeats run 2 starts back should win but last run has me worried a shade
2 KING ALBERT $15 honest type who draws to get the right trip, great chance of adding value to exotics
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $21 hasn't done much since coming to Tassie, has ability at best though so keeping relatively safe
4 TOPNOTCH DAN $5 didn't quite finish his race off when resuming but did over race in the run, looks well placed in this if found best form so prepared to give another chance
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH $3.0 went very well Sunday in the Launceston Mile getting beaten 4.5 metres in a race where they finished off in 56.5 so if repeats anything like that will be right in the mix
6 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $15 has disappointed since arriving in the state so overlooking him as a winning chance until he does something
7 SON OF JAM $15 best run in ages last time when enjoyed a perfect run in transit, hard to see him getting the same run again from here but must keep safe
8 HARLEY FELLA $17 as honest as the day is long and whilst he doesn't have the speed to come wide and beat these he will try all the way so include in exotics
Ratings 1/5/4/2/field
Race 8 (dartboard job, half keen on 5 though)
1 MIGHTY MYF $34 simply isn't going well enough
2 CELTIC LEGEND $5 had every chance when won narrowly on resumption to racing, draws to get his chance again
3 SASSY RULER $6 typical honest run when resuming, never far away and is a good each way hope from this draw
4 TRULY BLISSFULL $15 had every hope when resuming and looked disappointing on face value, may improve here but would need to
5 EL JAYS MAVERICK $5 ran his best race in ages last time, this is actually his best draw in a long time so comes right into calculations
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $13 much improved run last time, might be the surprise packet
7 OSCARS ACE $7 interesting runner resuming from a spell for the state's leading trainer, watch market moves
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY $8 superbly driven to win last time and going to need a similar drive to feature from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ULTIMATE SECRET $15 didn't enjoy a great deal of luck when resuming, will need luck from draw but not the worst
10 KING FOR A DAY $7 find this easier than last run and a must for exotics
11 WINDY WINGS $51 not going well enough
Ratings 5/2/3/10/8/7/6/9/4
Whilst I have no idea if any topsoil was applied to the track it certainly did belt down with rain on Sunday and with Launceston hosting 2 meetings in the space of 3 days, they just might have dressed the track surface.
All Races
R1#7 Prince Calaf
R2#3 Hamish Sanz
R3#7 Royal Alchemist
R4#10 Honest Art
R5#5 Balencia
R6#9 Bonny Wee Laddie
R7#1 Teejay Fella
R8#5 El Jays Maverick
No best bet, warming to Hamish Sanz a tad but not ultra confident
Quaddie
1,3,7,8,10,12
3,4,5,8,10,11
3,5,7,9
1,5
Race 1 (hard race to sort out, winning hopes 1,4,7)
1 MATAI NIGEL NZ $6 honest type with some gatespeed and does box on okay, fair bit of speed outside here but if he held up would take plenty of running down
2 JANSZOON $13 been fair in all Tasmanian starts to date, got beaten 30 metres by Prince Calaf at Devonport so hard to see him winning but a definite place possibility
3 SUSANNE JENNIFER $17 handy mare resuming and would need to be right at her best to figure, prefer to watch
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ $3.8 honest mare who is always hard to beat, this is her best draw in a while so is sure to be in the finish
5 INTHENICKOFTIME $34 is going better than form suggests but still looks too tough
6 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $8 gone very well at both runs since a spell (was badly held up first up so ignore the duck egg), not as well drawn this time but only needs even luck and could surprise
7 PRINCE CALAF $3 arrogant win at first Tasmanian start but this is an entirely different task with plenty of speed under him which means he will have to work much harder. Still clearly the one to beat as first up run was awesome
8 ROCKY CREEK $26 going okay but generally needs to draw well to figure so prepared to risk from out here but certainly not the worst
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WAIKOKO KING $101 first up run wasn't the worst I have ever seen but is still a 10YO who hasn't won for 4 years so impossible to come into
10 COMMANDER DATA $41 hasn't been too far away of late, generally races best at Devonport but still the best of the bolters in this
11 HIGHFLYIN FRED $41 resuming from a spell and hard to get enthused from this draw
12 ASHINAGA $34 very one paced type who isn't the worst in the race but from this gate will find it tough
Ratings 7/4/1/6/2/3/8
Race 2 (formline from race 3,6 come through is far stronger than the race 1,7 competed in last time)
1 PUBLICAN PETE $9 even run when resuming but this is much tougher so prefer place only
3 HAMISH SANZ $2.3 tough horse who is certain to be in the finish from here, reckon he can turn the tables on the stablemate
4 LACHIE JAMES $11 interesting runner who beat a good horse prior to a break, runs into a couple of smart ones here but is a big watch
5 TISU TOOTA $26 resuming and would need to improve on previous form to trouble these
6 KARALTA WIZARD $2.4 got a well deserved win on Sunday, never runs a bad race and is the one to beat again
7 SMILEUPONUS $8 very good run at Devonport and despite this being harder looks an improving type, a must for exotics
8 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51 simply doesn't look good enough
Ratings 3/6/7/1/4
Race 3 (7 holds the key to race as to which one shows up, raffle outside of him)
1 BERTILS ROCKET $7 opportunist type who generally runs well when gets a decent draw, looks a great exotics chance from this gate
2 BAJARDO RIVER $7 won at bolters odds last time and from this gate may surprise again as draws to get every possible hope
3 MOST HAPPY JASPER $15 form has dropped away at past few and want to see him doing something prior to including as a chance
4 STEELINGTON NZ $11 another honest run last time, never far away so one for exotics
5 LITTLE MISS AJAY $67 find this too tough
6 TENT PEG $67 unplaced in all 15 starts to date, prefer others
7 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $2.3 very hard to assess as won like a star 2 runs back then disgraced himself at subsequent run. Would win this on best form so must respect but as for backing him .....
8 AS YOU WISH $17 draw makes it tough but has ability but simply need too much luck to feature from here
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SCARLETT BLAZE $6 got a well deserved win last time and whilst he is likely to get buried on the pegs here you must respect if he gets any luck
10 PROVENANCE $15 erratic type with ability but prefer to wait until he produces something
Ratings 7/9/1/2/4
Race 4 (10 horse looks very well graded)
1 REALLY IMATIGERESS $9 wasn't a bad run at Devonport after suffering interference, each way hope from this draw
2 PRINCESS GANGSTER $101 getting beaten in easier races, wait until she shows something
3 ELLIE LATTE $9 had support but was just a fair run on debut, had trialled well prior to debut run so a massive improvement would not surprise, keep very safe
5 NO TIME TO DREAM $26 got knocked over when resuming and not the worst, one for exotics
6 INCHBYINCH $11 had his chance when resuming and led and got run over at Devonport, this race is about the same level so not out of calculations
7 PRETTYBOYTROY $8 interesting runner having first start in the state for an in form stable, watch betting very closely
8 LINE THE POCKET NZ (Em 1) $8 forget last run when wasn't put into the race then suffered interference, previous run was super and even from this gate has a chance
---------- Second Row ----------
9 APACHE ALBA $21 honest run last time when chased the pegs home, likely to get same type of run here so a place hope again
10 HONEST ART $3.8 looked very unlucky last time and this race looks easier if anything, the one to beat
11 THE ACES $21 well driven to place when resuming, much harder from this draw and minor exotics hope only
12 LOOK LOOK $7 very good run last time and with even luck from this draw will figure in the finish
13 TOP PREMIER $21 is always running home and one day the planets will align and he will blouse them but prefer place only
Ratings 10/12/8/7/1/3/6/9,11,13
Race 5 (very hard race, 5 the safe bet as will be put into race)
1 OUR SIR THOMAS $13 draws to get the type of run he loves but not sure if he is at the top of his game so prefer as a place prospect
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $21 racing well below his best and whilst he would be right in the mix at his top he hasn't done anything for a while so prefer to watch
3 KEPT CALM $7 has led and been run down late at past couple but did have his chance to win, may lead again here and if he does will be hard to beat again
4 RUSHIN COURAGE $8 had every hope after leading on Sunday, may go better driven with a sit so keep safe
5 BALENCIA $4.5 one paced mare who was enormous last time, sometimes leaves herself a sitting shot but is very tough and will be in the finish for sure
6 THE INHIBITOR $34 has ability but not racing well currently
7 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $34 would be some chance from a better gate but looks too tough from here
8 CURRYNROSES $8 looks the easiest race she has struck for a while so a definite chance despite the draw
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TROJAN CALM NZ $26 really struggling for form and wait until she shows something
10 STILL ROYAL $8 honest pacer who ran a shocker last time, good chance if you overlook that run
11 MY CENTURION NZ $5 been competitive in harder races than this of late and is a definite chance here
12 KATES ALLY $51 very unreliable and tends to race best from front row draws to prepared to risk
Ratings 5/11/3/4/8/10/1
Race 6 (9 is better than them but 30m is a big impost over 2200m)
1 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $26 didn't do much when resuming so prepared to risk until he shows a glimpse of his old form
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $13 had a soft run last time and ran best race in ages, may be an exotics hope again with the same type of run
3 AUSSIE CULLEN ($5,000) $5 returning from a SA stint but would be well placed in this based on previous Tassie form at this level, big watch
4 POP BILLY ($5,000) $34 resuming and first start at this level but has run some cheeky races at huge odds from time to time, still prefer to watch
5 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $5 good win last time when pinged to the front, has been consistent at this level so an EW chance again
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $17 last couple of runs have been getting better but still needs to find more to figure
7 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $4.5 ran his worst race in ages last time, has been ultra competitive at this level for a long time so prepared to give another chance
8 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11 has disappointed recently, whilst he is well up to winning this on best form place chances appear best on current form
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) $3.5 absolutely flying at present but its an enormous ask to give a 30 metre start over 2200m, the one thing in his favour is the smallish field as means there are less runners to round up. Still a clear top pick
Ratings 9/7/5/3/8/2/6
Race 7 (1,4,5 look superior)
1 TEEJAY FELLA $3.0 went like a jet when he led and won two starts back then ultra disappointing last time, should lead here and if repeats run 2 starts back should win but last run has me worried a shade
2 KING ALBERT $15 honest type who draws to get the right trip, great chance of adding value to exotics
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $21 hasn't done much since coming to Tassie, has ability at best though so keeping relatively safe
4 TOPNOTCH DAN $5 didn't quite finish his race off when resuming but did over race in the run, looks well placed in this if found best form so prepared to give another chance
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH $3.0 went very well Sunday in the Launceston Mile getting beaten 4.5 metres in a race where they finished off in 56.5 so if repeats anything like that will be right in the mix
6 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $15 has disappointed since arriving in the state so overlooking him as a winning chance until he does something
7 SON OF JAM $15 best run in ages last time when enjoyed a perfect run in transit, hard to see him getting the same run again from here but must keep safe
8 HARLEY FELLA $17 as honest as the day is long and whilst he doesn't have the speed to come wide and beat these he will try all the way so include in exotics
Ratings 1/5/4/2/field
Race 8 (dartboard job, half keen on 5 though)
1 MIGHTY MYF $34 simply isn't going well enough
2 CELTIC LEGEND $5 had every chance when won narrowly on resumption to racing, draws to get his chance again
3 SASSY RULER $6 typical honest run when resuming, never far away and is a good each way hope from this draw
4 TRULY BLISSFULL $15 had every hope when resuming and looked disappointing on face value, may improve here but would need to
5 EL JAYS MAVERICK $5 ran his best race in ages last time, this is actually his best draw in a long time so comes right into calculations
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $13 much improved run last time, might be the surprise packet
7 OSCARS ACE $7 interesting runner resuming from a spell for the state's leading trainer, watch market moves
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY $8 superbly driven to win last time and going to need a similar drive to feature from this gate
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ULTIMATE SECRET $15 didn't enjoy a great deal of luck when resuming, will need luck from draw but not the worst
10 KING FOR A DAY $7 find this easier than last run and a must for exotics
11 WINDY WINGS $51 not going well enough
Ratings 5/2/3/10/8/7/6/9/4
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Launceston Wednesday - Early Market plus Sunday Recap
Haven't finished this as yet and done no form study since Saturday morning but thought I would post it. Had a dull ache in my left eye for a few days so went to the Doc on Monday morning and was at the specialist an hour later getting laser surgery for a torn retina so have to minimise things like using a computer and watching tv for a few days - as a punter I don't use those things much anyway!!!
Won't be venturing out the front door either as look an absolute treat with a big cotton patch over my eye for a couple of days so going to be a bit boring I think.
Obviously huge form doubts around the racing on Sunday night with the inside of the track being off - there was just too many cases of a well supported leader being the first beaten whilst numerous 50/1 pops sat 3 deep the trip working and beat them home so anybody who doesn't think there was a bias will have to explain how that scenario can occur in a number of races.
Obviously won't have any blackbookers as too hard to make sense of the form (apart from Our Sir Jeckyl who was electric first up) and my driver's votes for the night were:
3. G Rattray
2. A Ashwood
1. K Toulmin
Odds and Markets for Wednesday - will try to do comments tomorrow arvo as should listen to a doctor for once in my life
1 MATAI NIGEL NZ $6
2 JANSZOON $9
3 SUSANNE JENNIFER $13
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ $4.5
5 INTHENICKOFTIME $26
6 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $8
7 PRINCE CALAF $3.5
8 ROCKY CREEK $26
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WAIKOKO KING $101
10 COMMANDER DATA $67
11 HIGHFLYIN FRED $51
12 ASHINAGA $51
Race 2
1 PUBLICAN PETE $7
2 BENJI VEE $26
3 HAMISH SANZ $3
4 LACHIE JAMES $11
5 TISU TOOTA $26
6 KARALTA WIZARD $2.8
7 SMILEUPONUS $6
8 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51
Race 3
1 BERTILS ROCKET $9
2 BAJARDO RIVER $8
3 MOST HAPPY JASPER $21
4 STEELINGTON NZ $8
5 LITTLE MISS AJAY $34
6 TENT PEG $51
7 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $4
8 AS YOU WISH $17
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SCARLETT BLAZE $7
10 PROVENANCE $15
11 OUR KAIZAN NZ $4.5
Race 4
1 REALLY IMATIGERESS $8
2 PRINCESS GANGSTER $51
3 ELLIE LATTE $8
4 TRELAWNEY $51
5 NO TIME TO DREAM $26
6 INCHBYINCH $7
7 PRETTYBOYTROY $8
8 LINE THE POCKET NZ (Em 1)
---------- Second Row ----------
9 APACHE ALBA $17
10 HONEST ART $4
11 THE ACES $17
12 LOOK LOOK $7
13 TOP PREMIER $11
Race 5
1 OUR SIR THOMAS $13
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $21
3 KEPT CALM $7
4 RUSHIN COURAGE $8
5 BALENCIA $4.5
6 THE INHIBITOR $34
7 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $34
8 CURRYNROSES $7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TROJAN CALM NZ $26
10 STILL ROYAL $7
11 MY CENTURION NZ $7
12 KATES ALLY $26
13 MI MADEMOISELLE (Em 1)
Race 6
1 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $26
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11
3 AUSSIE CULLEN ($5,000) $5
4 POP BILLY ($5,000) $51
5 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $6
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $17
7 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $5
8 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) $3
Race 7
1 TEEJAY FELLA $2.5
2 KING ALBERT $13
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $17
4 TOPNOTCH DAN $6
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH $7
6 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $11
7 SON OF JAM $13
8 HARLEY FELLA $13
Race 8
1 MIGHTY MYF $34
2 CELTIC LEGEND $4
3 SASSY RULER $6
4 TRULY BLISSFULL $13
5 EL JAYS MAVERICK $7
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $11
7 OSCARS ACE $7
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY $7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ULTIMATE SECRET $34
10 KING FOR A DAY $11
11 WINDY WINGS $34
Won't be venturing out the front door either as look an absolute treat with a big cotton patch over my eye for a couple of days so going to be a bit boring I think.
Obviously huge form doubts around the racing on Sunday night with the inside of the track being off - there was just too many cases of a well supported leader being the first beaten whilst numerous 50/1 pops sat 3 deep the trip working and beat them home so anybody who doesn't think there was a bias will have to explain how that scenario can occur in a number of races.
Obviously won't have any blackbookers as too hard to make sense of the form (apart from Our Sir Jeckyl who was electric first up) and my driver's votes for the night were:
3. G Rattray
2. A Ashwood
1. K Toulmin
Odds and Markets for Wednesday - will try to do comments tomorrow arvo as should listen to a doctor for once in my life
1 MATAI NIGEL NZ $6
2 JANSZOON $9
3 SUSANNE JENNIFER $13
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ $4.5
5 INTHENICKOFTIME $26
6 RIVER IN BLUEJEANS $8
7 PRINCE CALAF $3.5
8 ROCKY CREEK $26
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WAIKOKO KING $101
10 COMMANDER DATA $67
11 HIGHFLYIN FRED $51
12 ASHINAGA $51
Race 2
1 PUBLICAN PETE $7
2 BENJI VEE $26
3 HAMISH SANZ $3
4 LACHIE JAMES $11
5 TISU TOOTA $26
6 KARALTA WIZARD $2.8
7 SMILEUPONUS $6
8 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51
Race 3
1 BERTILS ROCKET $9
2 BAJARDO RIVER $8
3 MOST HAPPY JASPER $21
4 STEELINGTON NZ $8
5 LITTLE MISS AJAY $34
6 TENT PEG $51
7 ROYAL ALCHEMIST $4
8 AS YOU WISH $17
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SCARLETT BLAZE $7
10 PROVENANCE $15
11 OUR KAIZAN NZ $4.5
Race 4
1 REALLY IMATIGERESS $8
2 PRINCESS GANGSTER $51
3 ELLIE LATTE $8
4 TRELAWNEY $51
5 NO TIME TO DREAM $26
6 INCHBYINCH $7
7 PRETTYBOYTROY $8
8 LINE THE POCKET NZ (Em 1)
---------- Second Row ----------
9 APACHE ALBA $17
10 HONEST ART $4
11 THE ACES $17
12 LOOK LOOK $7
13 TOP PREMIER $11
Race 5
1 OUR SIR THOMAS $13
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ $21
3 KEPT CALM $7
4 RUSHIN COURAGE $8
5 BALENCIA $4.5
6 THE INHIBITOR $34
7 CUMULATIVE DREAMS $34
8 CURRYNROSES $7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TROJAN CALM NZ $26
10 STILL ROYAL $7
11 MY CENTURION NZ $7
12 KATES ALLY $26
13 MI MADEMOISELLE (Em 1)
Race 6
1 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $26
2 NIBEBO ($5,000) $11
3 AUSSIE CULLEN ($5,000) $5
4 POP BILLY ($5,000) $51
5 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $6
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $17
7 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $5
8 JEFFERSON NZ ($7,000) $11
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) $3
Race 7
1 TEEJAY FELLA $2.5
2 KING ALBERT $13
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $17
4 TOPNOTCH DAN $6
5 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH $7
6 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $11
7 SON OF JAM $13
8 HARLEY FELLA $13
Race 8
1 MIGHTY MYF $34
2 CELTIC LEGEND $4
3 SASSY RULER $6
4 TRULY BLISSFULL $13
5 EL JAYS MAVERICK $7
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $11
7 OSCARS ACE $7
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY $7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ULTIMATE SECRET $34
10 KING FOR A DAY $11
11 WINDY WINGS $34
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Sunday Tips
Launceston - all races
R1#1 Zurbaran
R2#8 Empty Envelope
R3#2 Rushin Courage
R4#6 Bubbas A Fake
R5#1 Maggie Kennedy
R6#2 Night In Vegas
R7#12 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#4 Packedtotherafters
Best Bet
Pretty keen on first 3 races so even a parlay wouldn't be a bad option. If backing them individually then level stake them as be surprised if 2 of the 3 didn't win and that would get you a small profit
$100 Quaddie
1,4,6
1,2,4,5,7,10
2,3,7,8
8,11,12
Roughly 46% I think
Quick synopsis and early speed indicator for each race
Race 1
#1 Zurbaran really should be winning with the only real worry being #7 who is first up in the state
Leader - #1 has led in the past and led in his trial so would imagine he would hold up again
Race 2
#8 Empty Envelope has a tricky draw to overcome but looks too good, reckon the only way he gets beaten is if they go back at the start over the mile trip (remember there are 12 runners so if he goes back will be 30 metres minimum off leader) and if he does that he also takes the risk that a bolter may pull out in front of him
Leader - impossible to be confident but forced to pick would opt for #3
Race 3
#2 Rushin Courage holds the key here as if he led he looks certain to get it soft as no pressure horses drawn the front row. The pole has showed speed at times which is a bit of a concern as wouldn't hand up but confident enough that the 2 will lead. #9 Denvers Boy is going well and looks the danger but the draw is awful for him
Leader - confident that #2 will lead, outside of the pole horse who I'm confident he will cross, #4 has plenty of speed but would hand up anyway and not much other speed of note. #3 led last time but can't see him leading here
Race 4
#6 Bubbas A Fake was simply huge last time and would win with a repeat of that but she can mix her form at times, #4 The Musics Over ran odds on in that race last time and disappointed but draws better here so must respect and #1 King Of Bling loves the mile trip. If they overdo things then maybe #7 Gracie Hart might blouse them but would need a ton of speed on
Leader - #1 is a flying machine early but wouldn't be surprised to see him take a sit behind either of the favs
Race 5
#1 Maggie Kennedy holds the key here as would probably win on best form but being first up its hard to know where she is at. #4 Biggernbettermax never runs a bad race and draws well so is an obvious danger. Another query is #2 Our Zellweger who was ordinary last time in but has been okay at the trials and you must also concede chances to 5,7,10 so just a terribly difficult race
Leader - also not easy but either of the inside 2 should have enough speed to muster through early
Race 6
with the scratching of the fav who looked a moral it has opened it up a tad but only look 4 chances in 2,3,7,8. #2 Night In Vegas has been ultra consistent and gets her best draw in a while but I have some reservations as to whether she has the killer instinct to win races as has run a lot of placings of late after looking the winner in the run
Leader - #2 hasn't been used from the gate in a while but has shown speed in the past and outside of her #3 led last time so confident in saying that either of those will lead
Race 7
Great race and very hard to sort out. 5,9,10 are probably the only 3 who can't win and I think whoever gets the best run out of 8,11,12 will win and also concede #2 a hope if gets a soft lead
Leader - #2 looks the one with not a ton of speed off the front
Race 8
exceptionalally hard race and very even with no runner not without a hope, pretty confident that either 3,4,5,6 will win but once again it comes down to tempo and luck in running. Be very interested to see how #6 Codie Karalta goes as if she learned to harness the speed that she had as a 2yo she will make an exciting 3yo
Leader - pole horse walks out which probably leaves either of the stablemates in 2 or 4 as the leader and if that happened I would expect 4 to roll to the front
R1#1 Zurbaran
R2#8 Empty Envelope
R3#2 Rushin Courage
R4#6 Bubbas A Fake
R5#1 Maggie Kennedy
R6#2 Night In Vegas
R7#12 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#4 Packedtotherafters
Best Bet
Pretty keen on first 3 races so even a parlay wouldn't be a bad option. If backing them individually then level stake them as be surprised if 2 of the 3 didn't win and that would get you a small profit
$100 Quaddie
1,4,6
1,2,4,5,7,10
2,3,7,8
8,11,12
Roughly 46% I think
Quick synopsis and early speed indicator for each race
Race 1
#1 Zurbaran really should be winning with the only real worry being #7 who is first up in the state
Leader - #1 has led in the past and led in his trial so would imagine he would hold up again
Race 2
#8 Empty Envelope has a tricky draw to overcome but looks too good, reckon the only way he gets beaten is if they go back at the start over the mile trip (remember there are 12 runners so if he goes back will be 30 metres minimum off leader) and if he does that he also takes the risk that a bolter may pull out in front of him
Leader - impossible to be confident but forced to pick would opt for #3
Race 3
#2 Rushin Courage holds the key here as if he led he looks certain to get it soft as no pressure horses drawn the front row. The pole has showed speed at times which is a bit of a concern as wouldn't hand up but confident enough that the 2 will lead. #9 Denvers Boy is going well and looks the danger but the draw is awful for him
Leader - confident that #2 will lead, outside of the pole horse who I'm confident he will cross, #4 has plenty of speed but would hand up anyway and not much other speed of note. #3 led last time but can't see him leading here
Race 4
#6 Bubbas A Fake was simply huge last time and would win with a repeat of that but she can mix her form at times, #4 The Musics Over ran odds on in that race last time and disappointed but draws better here so must respect and #1 King Of Bling loves the mile trip. If they overdo things then maybe #7 Gracie Hart might blouse them but would need a ton of speed on
Leader - #1 is a flying machine early but wouldn't be surprised to see him take a sit behind either of the favs
Race 5
#1 Maggie Kennedy holds the key here as would probably win on best form but being first up its hard to know where she is at. #4 Biggernbettermax never runs a bad race and draws well so is an obvious danger. Another query is #2 Our Zellweger who was ordinary last time in but has been okay at the trials and you must also concede chances to 5,7,10 so just a terribly difficult race
Leader - also not easy but either of the inside 2 should have enough speed to muster through early
Race 6
with the scratching of the fav who looked a moral it has opened it up a tad but only look 4 chances in 2,3,7,8. #2 Night In Vegas has been ultra consistent and gets her best draw in a while but I have some reservations as to whether she has the killer instinct to win races as has run a lot of placings of late after looking the winner in the run
Leader - #2 hasn't been used from the gate in a while but has shown speed in the past and outside of her #3 led last time so confident in saying that either of those will lead
Race 7
Great race and very hard to sort out. 5,9,10 are probably the only 3 who can't win and I think whoever gets the best run out of 8,11,12 will win and also concede #2 a hope if gets a soft lead
Leader - #2 looks the one with not a ton of speed off the front
Race 8
exceptionalally hard race and very even with no runner not without a hope, pretty confident that either 3,4,5,6 will win but once again it comes down to tempo and luck in running. Be very interested to see how #6 Codie Karalta goes as if she learned to harness the speed that she had as a 2yo she will make an exciting 3yo
Leader - pole horse walks out which probably leaves either of the stablemates in 2 or 4 as the leader and if that happened I would expect 4 to roll to the front
Launceston Preview - Sunday Nov 7
Just bumping this back to the top
Race 1
1 ZURBARAN $2.0 having first start for the Hillier stable and has always shown above average ability, has the speed to utilise the draw and clearly the one to beat if anywhere near right and he did win a recent trial (2.01.1, 58.7, 2170m) and the 3rd horse in that trial (Prince Calaf) won by 30 metres at Devonport Wednesday and the 4th horse (Look Look) ran a close 2nd so gives a decent pointer as to where he is at
2 ROSARIUM $21 hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in both career runs to date and from this better draw may surprise
3 ATTA JET $17 fair run when resuming, lacks a little bit of speed but always runs an honest race and might sneak into the placings
4 TIME TO PRAY $51 had every hope to break maiden status last week and just battled when the heat came on, unplaced in all 16 career starts so prefer others
5 ARTIFICE $8 dead set money muncher (look at starting price at past 6 starts) so despite this being her easiest assignment for a while you just can't back her as will be under the odds again. Must include if taking exotics though
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $11 another good run last time, draw is awkward but will be in the finish with even luck
7 MODERN SOCIETY $4.5 ex Victorian having first start for the Hodges camp and simply have to respect that as the stable is on fire currently. Has also trialled well recently so is a huge watch
8 DAINTY SUNRISE $101 race form is ordinary to say the least and whilst she hasn't been too bad at the trials this draw just makes her task a forlorn one
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATTLE CREEK $34 another who has more ability than form suggests and if gets a soft run here may sneak into the exotics
10 HERNANDES $101 yet to be placed and didn't do much when resuming
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $17 going a lot better than form suggests and whilst the draw makes it tough is a must for exotics
12 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $34 has some ability but manners have let her down but looks too hard from this draw over the mile
Ratings 1/7/5/6/11/3/2/9
Race 2
1 BARKERS RUN $17 much improved run last time and although this is a tougher race is still an EW chance
2 SOPHIES PLEASURE $21 honest mare who whacks away all day and might plug home into a place
3 ANOPTOMIST $9 well deserved win last time, is a tad limited ability wise but never runs a bad race and if found the pegs here would take some running down
4 LITTLE ELF $17 disappointed at past 3 runs after promising a bit at first few runs in the state, another who lacks speed but may improve back to a front line draw
5 MATAI NIGEL NZ $17 good run when resuming when did his share of work and boxed on well, going to have to work from this gate also so place best again
6 STEELINGTON NZ $51 in all Tasmanian runs without doing anything to write home about and this looks too tough from this gate been honest
7 LISKENS GIFT $17 good run last week when did plenty of work and refused to lie down, yet another who keeps trying and place only from out here
8 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.0 won in the manner of a very good horse first up and its worth noting the horse who had the cold sit on him and couldn't get near him (El Jays Modeena) came out and won a good mares race last week. Bit of speed under him so draw is tricky but still looks too good for them
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE JOUSTER $7 going very well but draw is horrendous for his chances, will need a ton of luck to win and whilst he might get it he is more than likely to get buried 3 to 4 back on the pegs so doubt he can win but is a must include for exotics
10 RUBYS LIFE $26 won a weak race here 2 starts back then wasn't too bad last time, need plenty of luck to figure but can't rule out completely
11 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 went a bit better last week but still not going as well as he can and whilst he can always surprise I want to see him show a glimmer of his old form first
12 BRO TOWN NZ $34 not much went right last week and whilst he is up to most of these on the score of ability he really needs to draw well to figure
13 SAAB QUALITY (Em 1)
Ratings 8/3/9/1/4/5/7/2
Race 3
1 OUR SIR LEW $11 one paced type resuming and be some hope if held the front but best form has always been when driven by Nat Emery so prefer place only
2 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $2.2 been ODM in both Tasmanian starts so far and runs have been very good. Is now back in the draw and I can recall him racing in Victoria and did have very good gatespeed so if he led here over the mile and ran up to previous runs he would almost be a good thing. Pretty keen on him actually
3 EARL HICKEY $34 not going well enough
4 COMMANDER DATA $51 has a bit of gatespeed but best form is always been around Devonport so look for him there
5 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $13 honest type who probably isn't going as well as he was a couple of months back but still in the mix for exotics
6 THE BULLIONAIRE $34 disappointing last week but was used out of the gate and has always raced best when driven cold so may improve but would want to
7 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA $26 runs his best races when drawn to lead so place at best from out here
8 IN CRUISE MODE $34 ran a number of cheeky races in good fields last time in and whilst the draw makes it nigh on impossible is worth keeping an eye on as a future form reference
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DENVERS BOY $5 model of consistency who hasn't finished worse than 4th at past 9 runs but draws the worst possible gate for him here. Still have to respect despite the draw as is going well enough to win should the breaks go his way
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $11 form has tapered off at past couple and tends to race best in front but follows out the likely leader here so should get a good run through and be competitive from there
11 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $26 best run in ages last time but going to need plenty of luck from here
12 MI MADEMOISELLE $26 making too many mistakes of late and would need to be on best behaviour to even rate a place chance from this draw
Ratings 2/9/10/1/5
Race 4
1 KING OF BLING $6 loves the mile trip and is certain to lead early then probably hand over to a horse of its choosing that will take him to the straight. If he gets the right split in the straight may surprise
2 OPERATIVE DELIGHT $34 now a 10yo and is resuming from a 2 year spell so prefer to watch
3 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $13 honest type who keeps coming, need everything to work out perfectly to win but won't be far away
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.2 disappointed last time but on previous form would still be the one to beat so giving one more chance
5 DODGERMEMATE $11 promised a bit last campaign but whilst this is easier than other runs this time in he still hasn't done a lot so place only until he shows a glimpse of his old form
6 BUBBAS A FAKE $3.2 enormous win last time but is a frustrating horse as can do plenty wrong. If she turns up on her "A" game will go mighty close again
7 GRACIE HART $8 opportunist mare who will be driven for one run at them and if the leaders overdo things may be the fresh horse late
8 DOWN TOWN BABE $17 resuming and has plenty of ability when right but this is tough first up from out here
Ratings 6/4/1/7/5/3/8
Race 5
1 MAGGIE KENNEDY $3.0 last season's champion Tasmanian filly resuming, tough race but from this gate over this trip will be right in the finish
2 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ $6 extremely disappointing last campaign when did nothing but has trialled okay this time in so from this draw must be respected
3 SANREOS $15 as honest as the day is long but reckon she will find a couple of these too nippy late
4 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $4.5 another who lacks really high speed but is yet to miss a place in 13 starts so again won't be far away
5 REMEMBERPREECE $8 well driven to win last time, this is harder and draw is some concern also so prefer as a place chance
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $51 going okay but needs it weaker
7 HELL FIRE BOY $11 interesting runner who resumes and been pretty good at the trials, can get it wrong at times and the draw makes things tough but certainly has ability
8 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21 going well enough to be competitive but from this draw will need plenty of things to go his way, one for exotics
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 been ordinary at both runs since resuming and prefer others despite drawing to get a pretty good trip
10 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $11 enigmatic beast who mixes his form, super win last time and from this good trailing draw may be the blowout horse again if the favs overdo things up front
Ratings 1/4/2/5/10/7/3
Race 6
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA $1.6 yet another good juvenile resuming, also trialled well with Zurburan who races in race 1 to get some type of lead. At her best she loves to lead and will take a ton of running down here
2 NIGHT IN VEGAS $2.2 gets her best draw this time in and has been close up recently, really gets her chance from this gate
3 EL JAYS MODEENA $3.5 good win last week and this is no tougher so is a great chance again
4 CHASSYS BEST $51 simply not up to this class
5 SHIRNELL $51 another who is outclassed
6 WEEMALANEWS $34 not much luck last time but still too tough from out here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $5 right up to these on ability and despite the tricky draw will be a major chance with even luck
8 THABELA BRIOSO $9 really going well at the moment, may have to work hard from the gate but still going too well to dismiss
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CYCLONE DYNASTY $34 draws to get a soft run but struggling for best form
Ratings 2/3/7/8
Race 7
1 DANCE OF THE DEITY $15 draws to trail the speed so a must for exotics as he simply loves that type of trip
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $9 much improved run last time and might be the leader here and if gets it soft over the mile trip may surprise
3 ALLA BREVE scr
4 KINGS A COACH $17 did trial okay recently but prefer place only
5 CASTASPELL $34 this looks too tough
6 REDSIDE SHREK $13 galloped when resuming and run was actually very good, has tons of ability at best so keep safe
7 ULOS $21 going okay but the draw really hampers his hopes
8 BABYITSU $5 resuming and also has a bad gate but did trial very well last week and he might be able to work to the death without expending too much juice here as not a very quick front line
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $34 this is tougher than past few but might run into exotics with a cheap pegs run
10 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34 starting to show glimpses of his best but still hard to be enthused from the 2nd row draw
11 OUR SIR JECKYL $5 another resuming and was probably the best horse in Tassie at the end of last campaign, from this draw will need the right run but is simply too classy to leave out
12 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.5 been the measuring stick at this level all season, horror draw for a mile race but given even luck in running will take a stack of holding out
Ratings 12/8/11/2/6/1/3
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ $7 big strong colt who lacks high speed so draw is a big issue here as if gets buried on the pegs will take an age to wind up
2 PUT MBACK $9 probably not as talented as some others in the race but is likely to be first to the pegs and is going to get the best run so is a must for exotics
3 KARALTA WIZARD $3.8 typical honest run when resuming and gets Gareth here, you would think that he would derive benefit from the first up run and will go very close here as is super tough
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $3.8 very good run on debut when stiff not to win, this race is much tougher but he has trialled well since so is a huge watch
5 JUST DANCE BABY $7 still a maiden but has yet to run a bad race, very even field this and given even luck from the draw will be right in the finish again
6 CODIE KARALTA $4.5 half sister to Villagem who oozes talent but still does plenty wrong, by the end of the season she might develop into a very good horse but still plenty of chinks to iron out. Too good to dismiss though as would probably win with a foolproof display but has a few issues currently. Is a huge watch first up
Ratings 4/3/6/5/1/2
Race 1
1 ZURBARAN $2.0 having first start for the Hillier stable and has always shown above average ability, has the speed to utilise the draw and clearly the one to beat if anywhere near right and he did win a recent trial (2.01.1, 58.7, 2170m) and the 3rd horse in that trial (Prince Calaf) won by 30 metres at Devonport Wednesday and the 4th horse (Look Look) ran a close 2nd so gives a decent pointer as to where he is at
2 ROSARIUM $21 hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in both career runs to date and from this better draw may surprise
3 ATTA JET $17 fair run when resuming, lacks a little bit of speed but always runs an honest race and might sneak into the placings
4 TIME TO PRAY $51 had every hope to break maiden status last week and just battled when the heat came on, unplaced in all 16 career starts so prefer others
5 ARTIFICE $8 dead set money muncher (look at starting price at past 6 starts) so despite this being her easiest assignment for a while you just can't back her as will be under the odds again. Must include if taking exotics though
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $11 another good run last time, draw is awkward but will be in the finish with even luck
7 MODERN SOCIETY $4.5 ex Victorian having first start for the Hodges camp and simply have to respect that as the stable is on fire currently. Has also trialled well recently so is a huge watch
8 DAINTY SUNRISE $101 race form is ordinary to say the least and whilst she hasn't been too bad at the trials this draw just makes her task a forlorn one
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATTLE CREEK $34 another who has more ability than form suggests and if gets a soft run here may sneak into the exotics
10 HERNANDES $101 yet to be placed and didn't do much when resuming
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $17 going a lot better than form suggests and whilst the draw makes it tough is a must for exotics
12 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $34 has some ability but manners have let her down but looks too hard from this draw over the mile
Ratings 1/7/5/6/11/3/2/9
Race 2
1 BARKERS RUN $17 much improved run last time and although this is a tougher race is still an EW chance
3 ANOPTOMIST $9 well deserved win last time, is a tad limited ability wise but never runs a bad race and if found the pegs here would take some running down
4 LITTLE ELF $17 disappointed at past 3 runs after promising a bit at first few runs in the state, another who lacks speed but may improve back to a front line draw
5 MATAI NIGEL NZ $17 good run when resuming when did his share of work and boxed on well, going to have to work from this gate also so place best again
6 STEELINGTON NZ $51 in all Tasmanian runs without doing anything to write home about and this looks too tough from this gate been honest
7 LISKENS GIFT $17 good run last week when did plenty of work and refused to lie down, yet another who keeps trying and place only from out here
8 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.0 won in the manner of a very good horse first up and its worth noting the horse who had the cold sit on him and couldn't get near him (El Jays Modeena) came out and won a good mares race last week. Bit of speed under him so draw is tricky but still looks too good for them
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE JOUSTER $7 going very well but draw is horrendous for his chances, will need a ton of luck to win and whilst he might get it he is more than likely to get buried 3 to 4 back on the pegs so doubt he can win but is a must include for exotics
10 RUBYS LIFE $26 won a weak race here 2 starts back then wasn't too bad last time, need plenty of luck to figure but can't rule out completely
11 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 went a bit better last week but still not going as well as he can and whilst he can always surprise I want to see him show a glimmer of his old form first
12 BRO TOWN NZ $34 not much went right last week and whilst he is up to most of these on the score of ability he really needs to draw well to figure
Ratings 8/3/9/1/4/5/7/2
Race 3
1 OUR SIR LEW $11 one paced type resuming and be some hope if held the front but best form has always been when driven by Nat Emery so prefer place only
2 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $2.2 been ODM in both Tasmanian starts so far and runs have been very good. Is now back in the draw and I can recall him racing in Victoria and did have very good gatespeed so if he led here over the mile and ran up to previous runs he would almost be a good thing. Pretty keen on him actually
3 EARL HICKEY $34 not going well enough
4 COMMANDER DATA $51 has a bit of gatespeed but best form is always been around Devonport so look for him there
5 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $13 honest type who probably isn't going as well as he was a couple of months back but still in the mix for exotics
6 THE BULLIONAIRE $34 disappointing last week but was used out of the gate and has always raced best when driven cold so may improve but would want to
7 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA $26 runs his best races when drawn to lead so place at best from out here
8 IN CRUISE MODE $34 ran a number of cheeky races in good fields last time in and whilst the draw makes it nigh on impossible is worth keeping an eye on as a future form reference
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DENVERS BOY $5 model of consistency who hasn't finished worse than 4th at past 9 runs but draws the worst possible gate for him here. Still have to respect despite the draw as is going well enough to win should the breaks go his way
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $11 form has tapered off at past couple and tends to race best in front but follows out the likely leader here so should get a good run through and be competitive from there
11 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $26 best run in ages last time but going to need plenty of luck from here
12 MI MADEMOISELLE $26 making too many mistakes of late and would need to be on best behaviour to even rate a place chance from this draw
Ratings 2/9/10/1/5
Race 4
1 KING OF BLING $6 loves the mile trip and is certain to lead early then probably hand over to a horse of its choosing that will take him to the straight. If he gets the right split in the straight may surprise
2 OPERATIVE DELIGHT $34 now a 10yo and is resuming from a 2 year spell so prefer to watch
3 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $13 honest type who keeps coming, need everything to work out perfectly to win but won't be far away
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.2 disappointed last time but on previous form would still be the one to beat so giving one more chance
5 DODGERMEMATE $11 promised a bit last campaign but whilst this is easier than other runs this time in he still hasn't done a lot so place only until he shows a glimpse of his old form
6 BUBBAS A FAKE $3.2 enormous win last time but is a frustrating horse as can do plenty wrong. If she turns up on her "A" game will go mighty close again
7 GRACIE HART $8 opportunist mare who will be driven for one run at them and if the leaders overdo things may be the fresh horse late
8 DOWN TOWN BABE $17 resuming and has plenty of ability when right but this is tough first up from out here
Ratings 6/4/1/7/5/3/8
Race 5
1 MAGGIE KENNEDY $3.0 last season's champion Tasmanian filly resuming, tough race but from this gate over this trip will be right in the finish
2 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ $6 extremely disappointing last campaign when did nothing but has trialled okay this time in so from this draw must be respected
3 SANREOS $15 as honest as the day is long but reckon she will find a couple of these too nippy late
4 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $4.5 another who lacks really high speed but is yet to miss a place in 13 starts so again won't be far away
5 REMEMBERPREECE $8 well driven to win last time, this is harder and draw is some concern also so prefer as a place chance
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $51 going okay but needs it weaker
7 HELL FIRE BOY $11 interesting runner who resumes and been pretty good at the trials, can get it wrong at times and the draw makes things tough but certainly has ability
8 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21 going well enough to be competitive but from this draw will need plenty of things to go his way, one for exotics
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 been ordinary at both runs since resuming and prefer others despite drawing to get a pretty good trip
10 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $11 enigmatic beast who mixes his form, super win last time and from this good trailing draw may be the blowout horse again if the favs overdo things up front
Ratings 1/4/2/5/10/7/3
Race 6
2 NIGHT IN VEGAS $2.2 gets her best draw this time in and has been close up recently, really gets her chance from this gate
3 EL JAYS MODEENA $3.5 good win last week and this is no tougher so is a great chance again
4 CHASSYS BEST $51 simply not up to this class
5 SHIRNELL $51 another who is outclassed
6 WEEMALANEWS $34 not much luck last time but still too tough from out here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $5 right up to these on ability and despite the tricky draw will be a major chance with even luck
8 THABELA BRIOSO $9 really going well at the moment, may have to work hard from the gate but still going too well to dismiss
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CYCLONE DYNASTY $34 draws to get a soft run but struggling for best form
Ratings 2/3/7/8
Race 7
1 DANCE OF THE DEITY $15 draws to trail the speed so a must for exotics as he simply loves that type of trip
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $9 much improved run last time and might be the leader here and if gets it soft over the mile trip may surprise
4 KINGS A COACH $17 did trial okay recently but prefer place only
5 CASTASPELL $34 this looks too tough
6 REDSIDE SHREK $13 galloped when resuming and run was actually very good, has tons of ability at best so keep safe
7 ULOS $21 going okay but the draw really hampers his hopes
8 BABYITSU $5 resuming and also has a bad gate but did trial very well last week and he might be able to work to the death without expending too much juice here as not a very quick front line
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $34 this is tougher than past few but might run into exotics with a cheap pegs run
10 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34 starting to show glimpses of his best but still hard to be enthused from the 2nd row draw
11 OUR SIR JECKYL $5 another resuming and was probably the best horse in Tassie at the end of last campaign, from this draw will need the right run but is simply too classy to leave out
12 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.5 been the measuring stick at this level all season, horror draw for a mile race but given even luck in running will take a stack of holding out
Ratings 12/8/11/2/6/1/3
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ $7 big strong colt who lacks high speed so draw is a big issue here as if gets buried on the pegs will take an age to wind up
2 PUT MBACK $9 probably not as talented as some others in the race but is likely to be first to the pegs and is going to get the best run so is a must for exotics
3 KARALTA WIZARD $3.8 typical honest run when resuming and gets Gareth here, you would think that he would derive benefit from the first up run and will go very close here as is super tough
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $3.8 very good run on debut when stiff not to win, this race is much tougher but he has trialled well since so is a huge watch
5 JUST DANCE BABY $7 still a maiden but has yet to run a bad race, very even field this and given even luck from the draw will be right in the finish again
6 CODIE KARALTA $4.5 half sister to Villagem who oozes talent but still does plenty wrong, by the end of the season she might develop into a very good horse but still plenty of chinks to iron out. Too good to dismiss though as would probably win with a foolproof display but has a few issues currently. Is a huge watch first up
Ratings 4/3/6/5/1/2
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Launceston Preview - Sunday November 7
Very good meeting this with heaps of very good horses resuming which isn't surprising considering we are just over a month away from the big December meetings. Must admit that I am not a great fan of the meeting having all races being run over the mile trip but its worth a try so will sit back and pass comment afterwards as I just might be wrong. Plus at least they are trying something new so rightly or wrongly deserve some credit for giving it a go.
I will say though that it is absurd to have 12 runners in mile races, it is at least 1 runner too many and probably 2 runners to be honest. Just means that a few horses don't get the opportunity to win even on a great track like Launceston.
Race 1
1 ZURBARAN $2.0 having first start for the Hillier stable and has always shown above average ability, has the speed to utilise the draw and clearly the one to beat if anywhere near right and he did win a recent trial (2.01.1, 58.7, 2170m) and the 3rd horse in that trial (Prince Calaf) won by 30 metres at Devonport Wednesday and the 4th horse (Look Look) ran a close 2nd so gives a decent pointer as to where he is at
2 ROSARIUM $21 hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in both career runs to date and from this better draw may surprise
3 ATTA JET $17 fair run when resuming, lacks a little bit of speed but always runs an honest race and might sneak into the placings
4 TIME TO PRAY $51 had every hope to break maiden status last week and just battled when the heat came on, unplaced in all 16 career starts so prefer others
5 ARTIFICE $8 dead set money muncher (look at starting price at past 6 starts) so despite this being her easiest assignment for a while you just can't back her as will be under the odds again. Must include if taking exotics though
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $11 another good run last time, draw is awkward but will be in the finish with even luck
7 MODERN SOCIETY $4.5 ex Victorian having first start for the Hodges camp and simply have to respect that as the stable is on fire currently. Has also trialled well recently so is a huge watch
8 DAINTY SUNRISE $101 race form is ordinary to say the least and whilst she hasn't been too bad at the trials this draw just makes her task a forlorn one
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATTLE CREEK $34 another who has more ability than form suggests and if gets a soft run here may sneak into the exotics
10 HERNANDES $101 yet to be placed and didn't do much when resuming
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $17 going a lot better than form suggests and whilst the draw makes it tough is a must for exotics
12 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $34 has some ability but manners have let her down but looks too hard from this draw over the mile
Ratings 1/7/5/6/11/3/2/9
Race 2
1 BARKERS RUN $17 much improved run last time and although this is a tougher race is still an EW chance
2 SOPHIES PLEASURE $21 honest mare who whacks away all day and might plug home into a place
3 ANOPTOMIST $9 well deserved win last time, is a tad limited ability wise but never runs a bad race and if found the pegs here would take some running down
4 LITTLE ELF $17 disappointed at past 3 runs after promising a bit at first few runs in the state, another who lacks speed but may improve back to a front line draw
5 MATAI NIGEL NZ $17 good run when resuming when did his share of work and boxed on well, going to have to work from this gate also so place best again
6 STEELINGTON NZ $51 in all Tasmanian runs without doing anything to write home about and this looks too tough from this gate been honest
7 LISKENS GIFT $17 good run last week when did plenty of work and refused to lie down, yet another who keeps trying and place only from out here
8 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.0 won in the manner of a very good horse first up and its worth noting the horse who had the cold sit on him and couldn't get near him (El Jays Modeena) came out and won a good mares race last week. Bit of speed under him so draw is tricky but still looks too good for them
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE JOUSTER $7 going very well but draw is horrendous for his chances, will need a ton of luck to win and whilst he might get it he is more than likely to get buried 3 to 4 back on the pegs so doubt he can win but is a must include for exotics
10 RUBYS LIFE $26 won a weak race here 2 starts back then wasn't too bad last time, need plenty of luck to figure but can't rule out completely
11 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 went a bit better last week but still not going as well as he can and whilst he can always surprise I want to see him show a glimmer of his old form first
12 BRO TOWN NZ $34 not much went right last week and whilst he is up to most of these on the score of ability he really needs to draw well to figure
13 SAAB QUALITY (Em 1)
Ratings 8/3/9/1/4/5/7/2
Race 3
1 OUR SIR LEW $11 one paced type resuming and be some hope if held the front but best form has always been when driven by Nat Emery so prefer place only
2 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $2.2 been ODM in both Tasmanian starts so far and runs have been very good. Is now back in the draw and I can recall him racing in Victoria and did have very good gatespeed so if he led here over the mile and ran up to previous runs he would almost be a good thing. Pretty keen on him actually
3 EARL HICKEY $34 not going well enough
4 COMMANDER DATA $51 has a bit of gatespeed but best form is always been around Devonport so look for him there
5 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $13 honest type who probably isn't going as well as he was a couple of months back but still in the mix for exotics
6 THE BULLIONAIRE $34 disappointing last week but was used out of the gate and has always raced best when driven cold so may improve but would want to
7 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA $26 runs his best races when drawn to lead so place at best from out here
8 IN CRUISE MODE $34 ran a number of cheeky races in good fields last time in and whilst the draw makes it nigh on impossible is worth keeping an eye on as a future form reference
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DENVERS BOY $5 model of consistency who hasn't finished worse than 4th at past 9 runs but draws the worst possible gate for him here. Still have to respect despite the draw as is going well enough to win should the breaks go his way
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $11 form has tapered off at past couple and tends to race best in front but follows out the likely leader here so should get a good run through and be competitive from there
11 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $26 best run in ages last time but going to need plenty of luck from here
12 MI MADEMOISELLE $26 making too many mistakes of late and would need to be on best behaviour to even rate a place chance from this draw
Ratings 2/9/10/1/5
Race 4
1 KING OF BLING $6 loves the mile trip and is certain to lead early then probably hand over to a horse of its choosing that will take him to the straight. If he gets the right split in the straight may surprise
2 OPERATIVE DELIGHT $34 now a 10yo and is resuming from a 2 year spell so prefer to watch
3 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $13 honest type who keeps coming, need everything to work out perfectly to win but won't be far away
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.2 disappointed last time but on previous form would still be the one to beat so giving one more chance
5 DODGERMEMATE $11 promised a bit last campaign but whilst this is easier than other runs this time in he still hasn't done a lot so place only until he shows a glimpse of his old form
6 BUBBAS A FAKE $3.2 enormous win last time but is a frustrating horse as can do plenty wrong. If she turns up on her "A" game will go mighty close again
7 GRACIE HART $8 opportunist mare who will be driven for one run at them and if the leaders overdo things may be the fresh horse late
8 DOWN TOWN BABE $17 resuming and has plenty of ability when right but this is tough first up from out here
Ratings 4/6/1/7/5/3/8
Race 5
1 MAGGIE KENNEDY $3.0 last season's champion Tasmanian filly resuming, tough race but from this gate over this trip will be right in the finish
2 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ $6 extremely disappointing last campaign when did nothing but has trialled okay this time in so from this draw must be respected
3 SANREOS $15 as honest as the day is long but reckon she will find a couple of these too nippy late
4 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $4.5 another who lacks really high speed but is yet to miss a place in 13 starts so again won't be far away
5 REMEMBERPREECE $8 well driven to win last time, this is harder and draw is some concern also so prefer as a place chance
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $51 going okay but needs it weaker
7 HELL FIRE BOY $11 interesting runner who resumes and been pretty good at the trials, can get it wrong at times and the draw makes things tough but certainly has ability
8 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21 going well enough to be competitive but from this draw will need plenty of things to go his way, one for exotics
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 been ordinary at both runs since resuming and prefer others despite drawing to get a pretty good trip
10 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $11 enigmatic beast who mixes his form, super win last time and from this good trailing draw may be the blowout horse again if the favs overdo things up front
Ratings 1/4/2/5/10/7/3
Race 6
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA $1.6 yet another good juvenile resuming, also trialled well with Zurburan who races in race 1 to get some type of lead. At her best she loves to lead and will take a ton of running down here
2 NIGHT IN VEGAS $2.2 gets her best draw this time in and has been close up recently, really gets her chance from this gate
3 EL JAYS MODEENA $3.5 good win last week and this is no tougher so is a great chance again
4 CHASSYS BEST $51 simply not up to this class
5 SHIRNELL $51 another who is outclassed
6 WEEMALANEWS $34 not much luck last time but still too tough from out here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $5 right up to these on ability and despite the tricky draw will be a major chance with even luck
8 THABELA BRIOSO $9 really going well at the moment, may have to work hard from the gate but still going too well to dismiss
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CYCLONE DYNASTY $34 draws to get a soft run but struggling for best form
Ratings 2/3/7/8
Race 7
1 DANCE OF THE DEITY $15 draws to trail the speed so a must for exotics as he simply loves that type of trip
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $9 much improved run last time and might be the leader here and if gets it soft over the mile trip may surprise
3 ALLA BREVE scr
4 KINGS A COACH $17 did trial okay recently but prefer place only
5 CASTASPELL $34 this looks too tough
6 REDSIDE SHREK $13 galloped when resuming and run was actually very good, has tons of ability at best so keep safe
7 ULOS $21 going okay but the draw really hampers his hopes
8 BABYITSU $5 resuming and also has a bad gate but did trial very well last week and he might be able to work to the death without expending too much juice here as not a very quick front line
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $34 this is tougher than past few but might run into exotics with a cheap pegs run
10 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34 starting to show glimpses of his best but still hard to be enthused from the 2nd row draw
11 OUR SIR JECKYL $5 another resuming and was probably the best horse in Tassie at the end of last campaign, from this draw will need the right run but is simply too classy to leave out
12 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.5 been the measuring stick at this level all season, horror draw for a mile race but given even luck in running will take a stack of holding out
Ratings 12/8/11/2/6/1/3
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ $7 big strong colt who lacks high speed so draw is a big issue here as if gets buried on the pegs will take an age to wind up
2 PUT MBACK $9 probably not as talented as some others in the race but is likely to be first to the pegs and is going to get the best run so is a must for exotics
3 KARALTA WIZARD $3.8 typical honest run when resuming and gets Gareth here, you would think that he would derive benefit from the first up run and will go very close here as is super tough
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $3.8 very good run on debut when stiff not to win, this race is much tougher but he has trialled well since so is a huge watch
5 JUST DANCE BABY $7 still a maiden but has yet to run a bad race, very even field this and given even luck from the draw will be right in the finish again
6 CODIE KARALTA $4.5 half sister to Villagem who oozes talent but still does plenty wrong, by the end of the season she might develop into a very good horse but still plenty of chinks to iron out. Too good to dismiss though as would probably win with a foolproof display but has a few issues currently. Is a huge watch first up
Ratings 3/4/6/5/1/2
I will say though that it is absurd to have 12 runners in mile races, it is at least 1 runner too many and probably 2 runners to be honest. Just means that a few horses don't get the opportunity to win even on a great track like Launceston.
Race 1
1 ZURBARAN $2.0 having first start for the Hillier stable and has always shown above average ability, has the speed to utilise the draw and clearly the one to beat if anywhere near right and he did win a recent trial (2.01.1, 58.7, 2170m) and the 3rd horse in that trial (Prince Calaf) won by 30 metres at Devonport Wednesday and the 4th horse (Look Look) ran a close 2nd so gives a decent pointer as to where he is at
2 ROSARIUM $21 hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in both career runs to date and from this better draw may surprise
3 ATTA JET $17 fair run when resuming, lacks a little bit of speed but always runs an honest race and might sneak into the placings
4 TIME TO PRAY $51 had every hope to break maiden status last week and just battled when the heat came on, unplaced in all 16 career starts so prefer others
5 ARTIFICE $8 dead set money muncher (look at starting price at past 6 starts) so despite this being her easiest assignment for a while you just can't back her as will be under the odds again. Must include if taking exotics though
6 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $11 another good run last time, draw is awkward but will be in the finish with even luck
7 MODERN SOCIETY $4.5 ex Victorian having first start for the Hodges camp and simply have to respect that as the stable is on fire currently. Has also trialled well recently so is a huge watch
8 DAINTY SUNRISE $101 race form is ordinary to say the least and whilst she hasn't been too bad at the trials this draw just makes her task a forlorn one
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATTLE CREEK $34 another who has more ability than form suggests and if gets a soft run here may sneak into the exotics
10 HERNANDES $101 yet to be placed and didn't do much when resuming
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $17 going a lot better than form suggests and whilst the draw makes it tough is a must for exotics
12 SHEZA WESTERN ROSE $34 has some ability but manners have let her down but looks too hard from this draw over the mile
Ratings 1/7/5/6/11/3/2/9
Race 2
1 BARKERS RUN $17 much improved run last time and although this is a tougher race is still an EW chance
3 ANOPTOMIST $9 well deserved win last time, is a tad limited ability wise but never runs a bad race and if found the pegs here would take some running down
4 LITTLE ELF $17 disappointed at past 3 runs after promising a bit at first few runs in the state, another who lacks speed but may improve back to a front line draw
5 MATAI NIGEL NZ $17 good run when resuming when did his share of work and boxed on well, going to have to work from this gate also so place best again
6 STEELINGTON NZ $51 in all Tasmanian runs without doing anything to write home about and this looks too tough from this gate been honest
7 LISKENS GIFT $17 good run last week when did plenty of work and refused to lie down, yet another who keeps trying and place only from out here
8 EMPTY ENVELOPE $2.0 won in the manner of a very good horse first up and its worth noting the horse who had the cold sit on him and couldn't get near him (El Jays Modeena) came out and won a good mares race last week. Bit of speed under him so draw is tricky but still looks too good for them
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE JOUSTER $7 going very well but draw is horrendous for his chances, will need a ton of luck to win and whilst he might get it he is more than likely to get buried 3 to 4 back on the pegs so doubt he can win but is a must include for exotics
10 RUBYS LIFE $26 won a weak race here 2 starts back then wasn't too bad last time, need plenty of luck to figure but can't rule out completely
11 PRETTYBOYTOBY $34 went a bit better last week but still not going as well as he can and whilst he can always surprise I want to see him show a glimmer of his old form first
12 BRO TOWN NZ $34 not much went right last week and whilst he is up to most of these on the score of ability he really needs to draw well to figure
Ratings 8/3/9/1/4/5/7/2
Race 3
1 OUR SIR LEW $11 one paced type resuming and be some hope if held the front but best form has always been when driven by Nat Emery so prefer place only
2 RUSHIN COURAGE NZ $2.2 been ODM in both Tasmanian starts so far and runs have been very good. Is now back in the draw and I can recall him racing in Victoria and did have very good gatespeed so if he led here over the mile and ran up to previous runs he would almost be a good thing. Pretty keen on him actually
3 EARL HICKEY $34 not going well enough
4 COMMANDER DATA $51 has a bit of gatespeed but best form is always been around Devonport so look for him there
5 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA $13 honest type who probably isn't going as well as he was a couple of months back but still in the mix for exotics
6 THE BULLIONAIRE $34 disappointing last week but was used out of the gate and has always raced best when driven cold so may improve but would want to
7 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA $26 runs his best races when drawn to lead so place at best from out here
8 IN CRUISE MODE $34 ran a number of cheeky races in good fields last time in and whilst the draw makes it nigh on impossible is worth keeping an eye on as a future form reference
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DENVERS BOY $5 model of consistency who hasn't finished worse than 4th at past 9 runs but draws the worst possible gate for him here. Still have to respect despite the draw as is going well enough to win should the breaks go his way
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $11 form has tapered off at past couple and tends to race best in front but follows out the likely leader here so should get a good run through and be competitive from there
11 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE $26 best run in ages last time but going to need plenty of luck from here
12 MI MADEMOISELLE $26 making too many mistakes of late and would need to be on best behaviour to even rate a place chance from this draw
Ratings 2/9/10/1/5
Race 4
1 KING OF BLING $6 loves the mile trip and is certain to lead early then probably hand over to a horse of its choosing that will take him to the straight. If he gets the right split in the straight may surprise
2 OPERATIVE DELIGHT $34 now a 10yo and is resuming from a 2 year spell so prefer to watch
3 MURILLO BROMAC NZ $13 honest type who keeps coming, need everything to work out perfectly to win but won't be far away
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ $3.2 disappointed last time but on previous form would still be the one to beat so giving one more chance
5 DODGERMEMATE $11 promised a bit last campaign but whilst this is easier than other runs this time in he still hasn't done a lot so place only until he shows a glimpse of his old form
6 BUBBAS A FAKE $3.2 enormous win last time but is a frustrating horse as can do plenty wrong. If she turns up on her "A" game will go mighty close again
7 GRACIE HART $8 opportunist mare who will be driven for one run at them and if the leaders overdo things may be the fresh horse late
8 DOWN TOWN BABE $17 resuming and has plenty of ability when right but this is tough first up from out here
Ratings 4/6/1/7/5/3/8
Race 5
1 MAGGIE KENNEDY $3.0 last season's champion Tasmanian filly resuming, tough race but from this gate over this trip will be right in the finish
2 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ $6 extremely disappointing last campaign when did nothing but has trialled okay this time in so from this draw must be respected
3 SANREOS $15 as honest as the day is long but reckon she will find a couple of these too nippy late
4 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $4.5 another who lacks really high speed but is yet to miss a place in 13 starts so again won't be far away
5 REMEMBERPREECE $8 well driven to win last time, this is harder and draw is some concern also so prefer as a place chance
6 BAYFIELD HIGH $51 going okay but needs it weaker
7 HELL FIRE BOY $11 interesting runner who resumes and been pretty good at the trials, can get it wrong at times and the draw makes things tough but certainly has ability
8 WINGSOFANEAGLE $21 going well enough to be competitive but from this draw will need plenty of things to go his way, one for exotics
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $51 been ordinary at both runs since resuming and prefer others despite drawing to get a pretty good trip
10 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) $11 enigmatic beast who mixes his form, super win last time and from this good trailing draw may be the blowout horse again if the favs overdo things up front
Ratings 1/4/2/5/10/7/3
Race 6
2 NIGHT IN VEGAS $2.2 gets her best draw this time in and has been close up recently, really gets her chance from this gate
3 EL JAYS MODEENA $3.5 good win last week and this is no tougher so is a great chance again
4 CHASSYS BEST $51 simply not up to this class
5 SHIRNELL $51 another who is outclassed
6 WEEMALANEWS $34 not much luck last time but still too tough from out here
7 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $5 right up to these on ability and despite the tricky draw will be a major chance with even luck
8 THABELA BRIOSO $9 really going well at the moment, may have to work hard from the gate but still going too well to dismiss
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CYCLONE DYNASTY $34 draws to get a soft run but struggling for best form
Ratings 2/3/7/8
Race 7
1 DANCE OF THE DEITY $15 draws to trail the speed so a must for exotics as he simply loves that type of trip
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR $9 much improved run last time and might be the leader here and if gets it soft over the mile trip may surprise
3 ALLA BREVE scr
4 KINGS A COACH $17 did trial okay recently but prefer place only
5 CASTASPELL $34 this looks too tough
6 REDSIDE SHREK $13 galloped when resuming and run was actually very good, has tons of ability at best so keep safe
7 ULOS $21 going okay but the draw really hampers his hopes
8 BABYITSU $5 resuming and also has a bad gate but did trial very well last week and he might be able to work to the death without expending too much juice here as not a very quick front line
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $34 this is tougher than past few but might run into exotics with a cheap pegs run
10 ANGUS MCGREGOR $34 starting to show glimpses of his best but still hard to be enthused from the 2nd row draw
11 OUR SIR JECKYL $5 another resuming and was probably the best horse in Tassie at the end of last campaign, from this draw will need the right run but is simply too classy to leave out
12 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $3.5 been the measuring stick at this level all season, horror draw for a mile race but given even luck in running will take a stack of holding out
Ratings 12/8/11/2/6/1/3
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ $7 big strong colt who lacks high speed so draw is a big issue here as if gets buried on the pegs will take an age to wind up
2 PUT MBACK $9 probably not as talented as some others in the race but is likely to be first to the pegs and is going to get the best run so is a must for exotics
3 KARALTA WIZARD $3.8 typical honest run when resuming and gets Gareth here, you would think that he would derive benefit from the first up run and will go very close here as is super tough
4 PACKEDTOTHERAFTERS $3.8 very good run on debut when stiff not to win, this race is much tougher but he has trialled well since so is a huge watch
5 JUST DANCE BABY $7 still a maiden but has yet to run a bad race, very even field this and given even luck from the draw will be right in the finish again
6 CODIE KARALTA $4.5 half sister to Villagem who oozes talent but still does plenty wrong, by the end of the season she might develop into a very good horse but still plenty of chinks to iron out. Too good to dismiss though as would probably win with a foolproof display but has a few issues currently. Is a huge watch first up
Ratings 3/4/6/5/1/2
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