Not much to report, same story as most other Devonport meetings actually. Barrier draws win races so leaders dominate and some horses also grow a leg there like Bajardo River.
Horses to Follow
Prince Calaf, times weren't flash but could have won by a lot further than he did. With his early speed he is sure to be competitive in anything he contests if he draws well
Bonny Wee Laddie, probably the run of the night when you consider he was 3 and 4 wide the last lap and they finished off in 58.4 which is low flying around Devonport. Sure to pick up another claimer soon
Drive of the Night
Keith Toulmin (Bajardo River), was picture perfect actually, drew next to the fav and followed her all the way and showed good patience to not pull out too early. Also thought his drive on Murphys Rocket was the 2nd best performance for the night.
Adrian Duggan showed how to drive a leader with Forty Two Grand, he kept the speed on and made all his main dangers work from their handicaps. See way too many drivers go slowly on leaders believing that maximises their chances when a lot of the time it just lets their dangers into the race. Especially in stand starts you can keep the speed on as you are not burning out of the mobile early so generally get a softer lead. Gareth Rattray didn't drive a winner but both his drives on Smileuponus and Look Look were good enough to win.
Driver votes
3. K Toulmin
2. A Duggan
1. G Rattray
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Devonport Tips
Without much confidence these are my top picks in each race prior to seeing what occurs with betting, just not exposed form to be confident with some many horses resuming
R1#11 Line The Pocket
R2#1 Modern Angel
R3#3 Chanceabet
R4#4 Ronnie Rat
R5#2 Kept Calm
R6#1 Inchbyinch
R7#9 Just Make Our Deigh
R8#8 Lola Bromac
Best Bet:
R4#4 Ronnie Rat - should be $3.50 min I hope
Also like R1#11 but hard to be confident drawn there around Devonport and good tip around for both the 1 and the 3 so might be a decent exotics bet
Will try and make time to post some live bets but won't be investing too much at all
My Quaddie
4,5,8,9
1,2,8
1,2
Field
R1#11 Line The Pocket
R2#1 Modern Angel
R3#3 Chanceabet
R4#4 Ronnie Rat
R5#2 Kept Calm
R6#1 Inchbyinch
R7#9 Just Make Our Deigh
R8#8 Lola Bromac
Best Bet:
R4#4 Ronnie Rat - should be $3.50 min I hope
Also like R1#11 but hard to be confident drawn there around Devonport and good tip around for both the 1 and the 3 so might be a decent exotics bet
Will try and make time to post some live bets but won't be investing too much at all
My Quaddie
4,5,8,9
1,2,8
1,2
Field
Devonport Preview - Wed Nov 3
Undoubtedly the hardest meeting I have ever tried to assess with seemingly half the field in every race resuming from a spell so be treading very warily betting wise. It does show however that Tassie Harness Racing is relatively healthy with full fields in every race and an 8 race program. The other thing to note is that all races are worth $5000 despite it clearly being a secondary meeting in the eyes of participants - just wanted to point that out as $5000 is the exact amount that all country races are run for in Victoria which shows how bad they are going currently.
My stats actually show that Devonport is the best place for me to bet as due to the nature of the track the speed map means just as much as the formguide but this meeting is simply too hard. I gave up an race 7 in the end, if you are taking a quad or a double with that race then take the field as impossible to rule any horse out.
Race 1
1 SCARLETT BLAZE $4 has run some terrific races at times this season but past couple have just been a tad below best. From this gate though is a leading hope as if he led and raced at his best would win for sure
2 THE ACES $9 raced without luck last campaign so ignore the figure form as right in this on best form. Must respect at first run back
3 ELLIE LATTE $4.5 first starter who trialled very well here recently and also chased home a couple of smart ones at the trials prior to that so is a huge watch
4 NO TIME TO DREAM $34 resuming and whilst she did race some handy ones last time in this still looks too tough
5 JOEY MERCURY NZ $26 has run some cheeky races at times but from this gate first up prepared to risk
6 SURPRISE PURCHASE $8 goes best when drawn to lead and mighty hard to do that from this barrier at Devonport but will be going forward early and if found the front would be a huge chance and still a rough hope if doesn't lead as can work in his races
---------- Second Row ----------
7 APACHE ALBA $21 wasn't too bad last time and draws to take the cheap way home so one for exotics
8 TENT PEG (Em 1)
9 TRELAWNEY $51 first starter and been pretty plain at the trials
10 REALLY IMATIGERESS $26 has some ability but may find it tough from this draw, not the worst
11 LINE THE POCKET NZ $3.8 simply enormous last time against better than these making up a ton of ground in a 28.8 closing split. Hard to be confident from this draw around here though but take a ton of beating with even luck
Ratings 11/1/3?/6/2/7
Race 2
1 MODERN ANGEL $2.2 is a filly taking on the boys and has a lot of ability but can get it wrong at times, showed some early speed at last run so if led up here would be entitled to start fav
2 PUBLICAN PETE $2.8 resuming and has been in the market at every run and also been competitive. Would need to be at the top of his game if the pole led but still clearly the main danger
3 THE JET $15 resumes without a trial and did run well at debut 3 starts back so keeping relatively safe whilst fresh despite finishing last at his 2 subsequent runs
4 PARKMOUNT LADY $34 first starter who hasn't set the world on fire at the trials
5 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51 had 4 starts and never looked likely, wait until she shows something
6 BENJI VEE $11 won his first 2 starts as an early 2YO but hasn't been placed in 8 subsequent runs, however his first up run wasn't too bad in a stronger race so if gets any luck from the barrier may surprise
---------- Second Row ----------
7 ZIMERO $34 form on paper reads 7444 which doesn't look too bad but in reality its last, 2nd last, last and last so isn't as impressive as it seems. Has finished close up a few times though and trials haven't been awful so with the trailing draw maybe one for the first four
8 BARE ROCK BOY $21 was in the market on debut when got it wrong and hasn't trialled so hard to assess but from the 2nd row am prepared to risk unless there is some major backing for him
9 SMILEUPONUS $9 good run in a strong race last time, certainly has her share of ability but manners let her down currently. If puts it together is a good place prospect though
Ratings 1/2/9/6/3/8/7
Race 3
1 PRINCE CALAF $8 ex Victorian with average form but joins in form stable and has gatespeed which is a huge positive around here. Big watch
2 TRULY BLISSFULL $4 inconsistent mare who has plenty of ability at best, trial form only looks fair on paper but too good to dismiss
3 CHANCEABET $3.5 tough pacer who has run a couple of shockers this time in but outside of those runs has form good enough to win this, will get put into the race and provided he is on his game will take plenty of beating
4 ULTIMATE SECRET $21 another resuming but only had average form last time in so prepared to risk
5 WINDY WINGS $15 had support but didn't do much at first Tassie run, obviously doing something to justify the support so keeping safer than form suggests. Also engaged in Hobart Sunday
6 JANSZOON $6 both Tassie runs have been okay in better company, will probably have to circle the field to win here which is a big ask but is in the mix
---------- Second Row ----------
7 BENJAMIN SHANNON $26 yet another horse resuming off average form, draws to get a cheap run but place looks best
8 COMMANDER DATA $26 usually goes okay here but best runs have been when drawn to use its gatespeed so wait for a front row draw
9 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $15 going better than form suggests, 3 wide the trip in a much harder race last time. Draw does it no favours but will appreciate the drop in class and may surprise
10 ROCKY CREEK $11 excellent run when resuming and did plenty of work in the run and boxed on bravely, another who is best suited when drawn the front but has some hope if can work into the race
Ratings 3/2/6/1/10/9
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) $21 form is average to say the least but isn't going quite as bad as it seems. Wouldn't surprise to see him bob up in the placings if does everything right
2 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $17 resuming for a new stable and whilst he he usually a reliable stand performer (led at past 4 stand start runs) his form prior to a spell was average and he isn't getting any younger so prefer to watch
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $11 just continues to run an honest race every week, needs a bit to go his way to win but certainly won't shirk the task
4 RONNIE RAT ($5,000) $4 looks extremely well graded dropping back from FFA grade and usually loves stand starts, if he led he shouldn't get beaten. Looks a decent buy at the price to be honest
5 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $5 the king of the claimers who has won 8 of past 13 at this level and been placed 2nd on another 3 occasions but has led the majority of the time and there is plenty of speed under him here so prepared to risk a little. Too honest to leave out though and if led again would go mighty close
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $21 went too poorly last time to be a factor here
---------- Second Row ----------
7 MY CENTURION NZ ($5,000) $15 usually runs an honest race so might sneak into the placings
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $6 well graded on best form but was a shade disappointing last time but still wasn't too bad. Will be around the mark somewhere
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($7,000) $4 has had races run to suit and been well driven to capitalise at past 2 when has smashed them, he is flying at the moment and if the leaders run it truly again which looks some chance then he would be the one to beat
Ratings 4/9/8/5/3/field
Race 5
1 AS YOU WISH $7 loves to follow speed and with his stablemate drawn gate 2 he is likely to get every hope, if the split comes he might blouse them late
2 KEPT CALM $3.5 led and got nabbed on the line in a harder race last time (finished off in 58.6), if he leads around here will take a ton of running down
3 OUR SIR THOMAS $15 sit/sprint type resuming and would be competitive in this at best but prefer place only
4 BORNFIRST $34 generally goes well on this track but past few have been ordinary so wait until he shows something
5 SPECIAL GALLENTI $11 been racing in good form but goes best when drawn to lead and would be the one to beat if he did lead but doubt he will get over here so may struggle as tends to pull hard when he doesn't lead
6 PAV AND KIM (Em 1)
---------- Second Row ----------
7 IN CRUISE MODE $15 resuming and has plenty of ability at best, likely to be buried on pegs from here though so will need plenty of luck to figure
8 CRASH CART $3.5 bolted in last time after a dream run in transit, follows out a quick beginner here so looks likely to enjoy a similar run again. Hard to beat
9 KING ALBERT $17 this is the easiest race he has met in a long time but its also a long time since he won, one for exotics
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $9 unsuited by the tempo last week when unable to work into race, will obviously need it run to suit to figure from this draw but going as well as anything
11 TROJAN CALM NZ $34 didn't do a lot when resuming and whilst is well up to this race on best form its hard to make a case from this gate
Ratings 2/8/1/10/5/9/7/3
Race 6
1 INCHBYINCH $2.2 disappointing animal who looked like becoming a fair horse when younger, still draws to lead here and take a ton of running down
2 CELTIC LEGEND $6 honest type who is always thereabouts, doesn't win out of turn but will be around the placings somewhere
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER $26 resumes and wasn't too bad at first couple of starts but prefer to see
4 RAMSAYS FURY $15 was actually a fair run last week when resuming, might be value for exotics
5 SPACE KNIGHT $51 form simply isn't good enough to feature from this gate
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER $6 resuming and generally is competitive but the draw makes it tough
---------- Second Row ----------
7 POP BILLY (Em 1)
8 DREAM OF THE WEST $15 one paced mare who whacks away all day, draws to follow the speed here though so looms as a distinct place chance
9 LOOK LOOK $21 ran a couple of decent races earlier in the season and hasn;t had the best of luck of late, might run a race at odds with luck
10 INTHENICKOFTIME $21 another who is going better than form suggests, probably can't win but will certainly be including in exotics
11 PROVENANCE $7 well up to winning this on best form but is resuming and has a horror gate to overcome, has also broken at past 3 starts so needs to be taken on trust a bit. Maybe just watch him with an eye to the future betting wise
Ratings 1/2/11/7/6/4/9/10
Race 7
1 MISTER GALLENTI $4 stand is a bit of a query as with a lot of runners here but is going well so if steps its a huge advantage in a 2200m race around here
2 FORTY TWO GRAND $6 changed stables after being claimed last week, recent efforts have been honest and some hope by the very nature of the race
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $6 been ordinary in all Tasmanian runs so far, has had a break though so might go better this time in as raced and beat decent horses in Victoria prior to coming to Tassie. Watch betting
4 MOLLIE FINN $11 fair run when resuming when had every hope and battled away, would need to do everything right to be a winning hope but can't rule her out
5 PENNYS DRAGON $17 be well up to this class on best form but recent form has been below par, last run was a touch better though so might be ready to show something
6 SWEETEN THE POT $7 form tapered off at the end of last campaign but resumes here and at her best would be very competitive. Watch market
7 GRAND BROOK $17 honest type who is never far away but rarely wins so place may be best
8 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $5 appeared to have his chance last time but they did run 1.59 so may have gone better than it looked in hindsight, will need to do everything right from here but is still one of a host of winning hopes
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $5 well backed at FFA level last time when led and faded, the handicap makes things tough here but clearly well up to this on class
10 DODGERMEMATE $8 another who looks well graded but I can't emphasisie enough how tough it is to win from handicaps around Devonport, still must include as is simply better than most of them
Ratings Simply too hard, definite field job
Race 8
1 LITTLE MISS AJAY $26 has run the occasional good race in the past but simply didn't do enough first up to rate a chance even from this draw around here
2 KOIZORA $4 looks the leader which is always a plus around here, if she gets left alone might become the one to beat
3 MIGHTY MYF $34 form simply isn't good enough
4 SASSY RULER $8 honest mare resuming, lacks a bit of speed but never shirks the task so a must for exotics
5 DAINTY SUNRISE $51 need a massive improvement on recent form
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $7 not well drawn but been finishing close up with the other favs recently so some hope with luck
---------- Second Row ----------
7 KATES ALLY $13 has pulled very hard at all Tassie runs, wouldn't be surprised to see improvement at first start back
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ $1.80 looks well placed here, has good trailing draw and clearly the one to beat
9 BAJARDO RIVER $17 always races well here so despite being pretty plain of late she might bob up into the placings
Ratings 8/2/6/4/9/7
My stats actually show that Devonport is the best place for me to bet as due to the nature of the track the speed map means just as much as the formguide but this meeting is simply too hard. I gave up an race 7 in the end, if you are taking a quad or a double with that race then take the field as impossible to rule any horse out.
Race 1
1 SCARLETT BLAZE $4 has run some terrific races at times this season but past couple have just been a tad below best. From this gate though is a leading hope as if he led and raced at his best would win for sure
2 THE ACES $9 raced without luck last campaign so ignore the figure form as right in this on best form. Must respect at first run back
3 ELLIE LATTE $4.5 first starter who trialled very well here recently and also chased home a couple of smart ones at the trials prior to that so is a huge watch
4 NO TIME TO DREAM $34 resuming and whilst she did race some handy ones last time in this still looks too tough
5 JOEY MERCURY NZ $26 has run some cheeky races at times but from this gate first up prepared to risk
6 SURPRISE PURCHASE $8 goes best when drawn to lead and mighty hard to do that from this barrier at Devonport but will be going forward early and if found the front would be a huge chance and still a rough hope if doesn't lead as can work in his races
---------- Second Row ----------
7 APACHE ALBA $21 wasn't too bad last time and draws to take the cheap way home so one for exotics
9 TRELAWNEY $51 first starter and been pretty plain at the trials
10 REALLY IMATIGERESS $26 has some ability but may find it tough from this draw, not the worst
11 LINE THE POCKET NZ $3.8 simply enormous last time against better than these making up a ton of ground in a 28.8 closing split. Hard to be confident from this draw around here though but take a ton of beating with even luck
Ratings 11/1/3?/6/2/7
Race 2
1 MODERN ANGEL $2.2 is a filly taking on the boys and has a lot of ability but can get it wrong at times, showed some early speed at last run so if led up here would be entitled to start fav
2 PUBLICAN PETE $2.8 resuming and has been in the market at every run and also been competitive. Would need to be at the top of his game if the pole led but still clearly the main danger
3 THE JET $15 resumes without a trial and did run well at debut 3 starts back so keeping relatively safe whilst fresh despite finishing last at his 2 subsequent runs
4 PARKMOUNT LADY $34 first starter who hasn't set the world on fire at the trials
5 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51 had 4 starts and never looked likely, wait until she shows something
6 BENJI VEE $11 won his first 2 starts as an early 2YO but hasn't been placed in 8 subsequent runs, however his first up run wasn't too bad in a stronger race so if gets any luck from the barrier may surprise
---------- Second Row ----------
7 ZIMERO $34 form on paper reads 7444 which doesn't look too bad but in reality its last, 2nd last, last and last so isn't as impressive as it seems. Has finished close up a few times though and trials haven't been awful so with the trailing draw maybe one for the first four
9 SMILEUPONUS $9 good run in a strong race last time, certainly has her share of ability but manners let her down currently. If puts it together is a good place prospect though
Ratings 1/2/9/6/3/8/7
Race 3
1 PRINCE CALAF $8 ex Victorian with average form but joins in form stable and has gatespeed which is a huge positive around here. Big watch
2 TRULY BLISSFULL $4 inconsistent mare who has plenty of ability at best, trial form only looks fair on paper but too good to dismiss
3 CHANCEABET $3.5 tough pacer who has run a couple of shockers this time in but outside of those runs has form good enough to win this, will get put into the race and provided he is on his game will take plenty of beating
4 ULTIMATE SECRET $21 another resuming but only had average form last time in so prepared to risk
5 WINDY WINGS $15 had support but didn't do much at first Tassie run, obviously doing something to justify the support so keeping safer than form suggests. Also engaged in Hobart Sunday
6 JANSZOON $6 both Tassie runs have been okay in better company, will probably have to circle the field to win here which is a big ask but is in the mix
---------- Second Row ----------
7 BENJAMIN SHANNON $26 yet another horse resuming off average form, draws to get a cheap run but place looks best
8 COMMANDER DATA $26 usually goes okay here but best runs have been when drawn to use its gatespeed so wait for a front row draw
9 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $15 going better than form suggests, 3 wide the trip in a much harder race last time. Draw does it no favours but will appreciate the drop in class and may surprise
10 ROCKY CREEK $11 excellent run when resuming and did plenty of work in the run and boxed on bravely, another who is best suited when drawn the front but has some hope if can work into the race
Ratings 3/2/6/1/10/9
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) $21 form is average to say the least but isn't going quite as bad as it seems. Wouldn't surprise to see him bob up in the placings if does everything right
2 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $17 resuming for a new stable and whilst he he usually a reliable stand performer (led at past 4 stand start runs) his form prior to a spell was average and he isn't getting any younger so prefer to watch
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $11 just continues to run an honest race every week, needs a bit to go his way to win but certainly won't shirk the task
4 RONNIE RAT ($5,000) $4 looks extremely well graded dropping back from FFA grade and usually loves stand starts, if he led he shouldn't get beaten. Looks a decent buy at the price to be honest
5 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $5 the king of the claimers who has won 8 of past 13 at this level and been placed 2nd on another 3 occasions but has led the majority of the time and there is plenty of speed under him here so prepared to risk a little. Too honest to leave out though and if led again would go mighty close
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $21 went too poorly last time to be a factor here
---------- Second Row ----------
7 MY CENTURION NZ ($5,000) $15 usually runs an honest race so might sneak into the placings
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $6 well graded on best form but was a shade disappointing last time but still wasn't too bad. Will be around the mark somewhere
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($7,000) $4 has had races run to suit and been well driven to capitalise at past 2 when has smashed them, he is flying at the moment and if the leaders run it truly again which looks some chance then he would be the one to beat
Ratings 4/9/8/5/3/field
Race 5
1 AS YOU WISH $7 loves to follow speed and with his stablemate drawn gate 2 he is likely to get every hope, if the split comes he might blouse them late
2 KEPT CALM $3.5 led and got nabbed on the line in a harder race last time (finished off in 58.6), if he leads around here will take a ton of running down
3 OUR SIR THOMAS $15 sit/sprint type resuming and would be competitive in this at best but prefer place only
4 BORNFIRST $34 generally goes well on this track but past few have been ordinary so wait until he shows something
5 SPECIAL GALLENTI $11 been racing in good form but goes best when drawn to lead and would be the one to beat if he did lead but doubt he will get over here so may struggle as tends to pull hard when he doesn't lead
---------- Second Row ----------
7 IN CRUISE MODE $15 resuming and has plenty of ability at best, likely to be buried on pegs from here though so will need plenty of luck to figure
8 CRASH CART $3.5 bolted in last time after a dream run in transit, follows out a quick beginner here so looks likely to enjoy a similar run again. Hard to beat
9 KING ALBERT $17 this is the easiest race he has met in a long time but its also a long time since he won, one for exotics
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $9 unsuited by the tempo last week when unable to work into race, will obviously need it run to suit to figure from this draw but going as well as anything
11 TROJAN CALM NZ $34 didn't do a lot when resuming and whilst is well up to this race on best form its hard to make a case from this gate
Ratings 2/8/1/10/5/9/7/3
Race 6
1 INCHBYINCH $2.2 disappointing animal who looked like becoming a fair horse when younger, still draws to lead here and take a ton of running down
2 CELTIC LEGEND $6 honest type who is always thereabouts, doesn't win out of turn but will be around the placings somewhere
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER $26 resumes and wasn't too bad at first couple of starts but prefer to see
4 RAMSAYS FURY $15 was actually a fair run last week when resuming, might be value for exotics
5 SPACE KNIGHT $51 form simply isn't good enough to feature from this gate
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER $6 resuming and generally is competitive but the draw makes it tough
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DREAM OF THE WEST $15 one paced mare who whacks away all day, draws to follow the speed here though so looms as a distinct place chance
9 LOOK LOOK $21 ran a couple of decent races earlier in the season and hasn;t had the best of luck of late, might run a race at odds with luck
10 INTHENICKOFTIME $21 another who is going better than form suggests, probably can't win but will certainly be including in exotics
11 PROVENANCE $7 well up to winning this on best form but is resuming and has a horror gate to overcome, has also broken at past 3 starts so needs to be taken on trust a bit. Maybe just watch him with an eye to the future betting wise
Ratings 1/2/11/7/6/4/9/10
Race 7
2 FORTY TWO GRAND $6 changed stables after being claimed last week, recent efforts have been honest and some hope by the very nature of the race
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $6 been ordinary in all Tasmanian runs so far, has had a break though so might go better this time in as raced and beat decent horses in Victoria prior to coming to Tassie. Watch betting
4 MOLLIE FINN $11 fair run when resuming when had every hope and battled away, would need to do everything right to be a winning hope but can't rule her out
5 PENNYS DRAGON $17 be well up to this class on best form but recent form has been below par, last run was a touch better though so might be ready to show something
6 SWEETEN THE POT $7 form tapered off at the end of last campaign but resumes here and at her best would be very competitive. Watch market
7 GRAND BROOK $17 honest type who is never far away but rarely wins so place may be best
8 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $5 appeared to have his chance last time but they did run 1.59 so may have gone better than it looked in hindsight, will need to do everything right from here but is still one of a host of winning hopes
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $5 well backed at FFA level last time when led and faded, the handicap makes things tough here but clearly well up to this on class
10 DODGERMEMATE $8 another who looks well graded but I can't emphasisie enough how tough it is to win from handicaps around Devonport, still must include as is simply better than most of them
Ratings Simply too hard, definite field job
Race 8
1 LITTLE MISS AJAY $26 has run the occasional good race in the past but simply didn't do enough first up to rate a chance even from this draw around here
2 KOIZORA $4 looks the leader which is always a plus around here, if she gets left alone might become the one to beat
3 MIGHTY MYF $34 form simply isn't good enough
4 SASSY RULER $8 honest mare resuming, lacks a bit of speed but never shirks the task so a must for exotics
5 DAINTY SUNRISE $51 need a massive improvement on recent form
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $7 not well drawn but been finishing close up with the other favs recently so some hope with luck
---------- Second Row ----------
7 KATES ALLY $13 has pulled very hard at all Tassie runs, wouldn't be surprised to see improvement at first start back
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ $1.80 looks well placed here, has good trailing draw and clearly the one to beat
9 BAJARDO RIVER $17 always races well here so despite being pretty plain of late she might bob up into the placings
Ratings 8/2/6/4/9/7
Monday, November 1, 2010
Meeting Review - Hobart October 31
Horses to Follow
Flying Dubai, very emphatic win in a good depth race for that class. Will win more races this time in for sure
Hydehurst Boy, top effort after blowing the start and coming 5 wide. Only issue with him is that he is now ODM and loves to lead
Aapenon, simply forget he went around as had no luck and still ran very well. This trio finished miles in front of the rest which is also a pretty strong form reference
Alma Grant, simply has to win shortly as going too well not to
Flying Indi Air, very hard to win mile races from barrier 11 but she went mighty close, sure to win at mares level shortly
Drive of the Night
Ricky Duggan (Bide Your Time), might not have looked pretty being 3 wide without cover but a lot of drivers could learn from watching it. He had the leaders covered at the 300 but sat there for another 200 metres ensuring that he had something left in the straight instead of just grinding it out from a long way out and leaving himself a sitting shot. All his drives were perfect again - Flying Dubai won the race at the start when he got in front of Aapennon, Jet Black Flyer settled leaders back and had her chance in the straight, Flying Indi Air was 3 wide with cover and even Twograndahand and Rikkisu were perfectly positioned in the run if they were good enough
Kate MacLeod was stiff not to get a vote last week and showed good aggression early which resulted in Artifice handing up in a mile race which ultimately won her the race and Nathan Ford simply gave Marossi every possible hope
Driver Votes
3. R Duggan
2. K MacLeod
1. N Ford
Slaughter of the Night
Paul Williams, gets 2 votes here. (a) The Inhibitor - decides to come 4 wide at the bell and circle the 3 wide train. Obviously forgot he was driving a $40 pop and not a $1.40 pop as not surprising dropped dead and ran last. (b) Iden Justasmyrk, every time he death seats on this horse he tends to run the 3rd quarter quicker than the last which won't win you many races when you get up in class especially like last night where it was 28.7, 30.0, might get away with in lower grades when the horse is simply better than them but not when a decent horse is camped on you
Also wasn't too impressed with the decision to lead on Blacktie Affair (presume that the stewards were informed of the change of tactics). Can't blame the driver as instructions must have come from connections but the weird part was that she drew to get the perfect run as was certain to be the horse sitting on the back of Iden Justasmyrk in the run getting the run she loves instead of being the one copping pressure from him down the back. Just as a side note, the actual winner (Marossi) sat in exactly the same spot as Blacktie Affair should have and would have been in the run
Flying Dubai, very emphatic win in a good depth race for that class. Will win more races this time in for sure
Hydehurst Boy, top effort after blowing the start and coming 5 wide. Only issue with him is that he is now ODM and loves to lead
Aapenon, simply forget he went around as had no luck and still ran very well. This trio finished miles in front of the rest which is also a pretty strong form reference
Alma Grant, simply has to win shortly as going too well not to
Flying Indi Air, very hard to win mile races from barrier 11 but she went mighty close, sure to win at mares level shortly
Drive of the Night
Ricky Duggan (Bide Your Time), might not have looked pretty being 3 wide without cover but a lot of drivers could learn from watching it. He had the leaders covered at the 300 but sat there for another 200 metres ensuring that he had something left in the straight instead of just grinding it out from a long way out and leaving himself a sitting shot. All his drives were perfect again - Flying Dubai won the race at the start when he got in front of Aapennon, Jet Black Flyer settled leaders back and had her chance in the straight, Flying Indi Air was 3 wide with cover and even Twograndahand and Rikkisu were perfectly positioned in the run if they were good enough
Kate MacLeod was stiff not to get a vote last week and showed good aggression early which resulted in Artifice handing up in a mile race which ultimately won her the race and Nathan Ford simply gave Marossi every possible hope
Driver Votes
3. R Duggan
2. K MacLeod
1. N Ford
Slaughter of the Night
Paul Williams, gets 2 votes here. (a) The Inhibitor - decides to come 4 wide at the bell and circle the 3 wide train. Obviously forgot he was driving a $40 pop and not a $1.40 pop as not surprising dropped dead and ran last. (b) Iden Justasmyrk, every time he death seats on this horse he tends to run the 3rd quarter quicker than the last which won't win you many races when you get up in class especially like last night where it was 28.7, 30.0, might get away with in lower grades when the horse is simply better than them but not when a decent horse is camped on you
Also wasn't too impressed with the decision to lead on Blacktie Affair (presume that the stewards were informed of the change of tactics). Can't blame the driver as instructions must have come from connections but the weird part was that she drew to get the perfect run as was certain to be the horse sitting on the back of Iden Justasmyrk in the run getting the run she loves instead of being the one copping pressure from him down the back. Just as a side note, the actual winner (Marossi) sat in exactly the same spot as Blacktie Affair should have and would have been in the run
Devonport Preview - Wednesday November 3
Undoubtedly the hardest meeting I have ever tried to assess with seemingly half the field in every race resuming from a spell so be treading very warily betting wise. It does show however that Tassie Harness Racing is relatively healthy with full fields in every race and an 8 race program. The other thing to note is that all races are worth $5000 despite it clearly being a secondary meeting in the eyes of participants - just wanted to point that out as $5000 is the exact amount that all country races are run for in Victoria which shows how bad they are going currently.
My stats actually show that Devonport is the best place for me to bet as due to the nature of the track the speed map means just as much as the formguide but this meeting is simply too hard. I gave up an race 7 in the end, if you are taking a quad or a double with that race then take the field as impossible to rule any horse out.
Race 1
1 SCARLETT BLAZE $4 has run some terrific races at times this season but past couple have just been a tad below best. From this gate though is a leading hope as if he led and raced at his best would win for sure
2 THE ACES $9 raced without luck last campaign so ignore the figure form as right in this on best form. Must respect at first run back
3 ELLIE LATTE $4.5 first starter who trialled very well here recently and also chased home a couple of smart ones at the trials prior to that so is a huge watch
4 NO TIME TO DREAM $34 resuming and whilst she did race some handy ones last time in this still looks too tough
5 JOEY MERCURY NZ $26 has run some cheeky races at times but from this gate first up prepared to risk
6 SURPRISE PURCHASE $8 goes best when drawn to lead and mighty hard to do that from this barrier at Devonport but will be going forward early and if found the front would be a huge chance and still a rough hope if doesn't lead as can work in his races
---------- Second Row ----------
7 APACHE ALBA $21 wasn't too bad last time and draws to take the cheap way home so one for exotics
8 TENT PEG (Em 1)
9 TRELAWNEY $51 first starter and been pretty plain at the trials
10 REALLY IMATIGERESS $26 has some ability but may find it tough from this draw, not the worst
11 LINE THE POCKET NZ $3.8 simply enormous last time against better than these making up a ton of ground in a 28.8 closing split. Hard to be confident from this draw around here though but take a ton of beating with even luck
Ratings 11/1/3?/6/2/7
Race 2
1 MODERN ANGEL $1.80 is a filly taking on the boys and has a lot of ability but can get it wrong at times, showed some early speed at last run so if led up here would be entitled to start fav
2 PUBLICAN PETE $3.8 resuming and has been in the market at every run and also been competitive. Would need to be at the top of his game if the pole led but still clearly the main danger
3 THE JET $15 resumes without a trial and did run well at debut 3 starts back so keeping relatively safe whilst fresh despite finishing last at his 2 subsequent runs
4 PARKMOUNT LADY $34 first starter who hasn't set the world on fire at the trials
5 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51 had 4 starts and never looked likely, wait until she shows something
6 BENJI VEE $11 won his first 2 starts as an early 2YO but hasn't been placed in 8 subsequent runs, however his first up run wasn't too bad in a stronger race so if gets any luck from the barrier may surprise
---------- Second Row ----------
7 ZIMERO $34 form on paper reads 7444 which doesn't look too bad but in reality its last, 2nd last, last and last so isn't as impressive as it seems. Has finished close up a few times though and trials haven't been awful so with the trailing draw maybe one for the first four
8 BARE ROCK BOY $21 was in the market on debut when got it wrong and hasn't trialled so hard to assess but from the 2nd row am prepared to risk unless there is some major backing for him
9 SMILEUPONUS $11 good run in a strong race last time, certainly has her share of ability but manners let her down currently. If puts it together is a good place prospect though
Ratings 1/2/6/9/3/8/7
Race 3
1 PRINCE CALAF $6 ex Victorian with average form but joins in form stable and has gatespeed which is a huge positive around here. Big watch
2 TRULY BLISSFULL $4 inconsistent mare who has plenty of ability at best, hasn't trialled publicly for her return but is a must include
3 CHANCEABET $4 tough pacer who has run a couple of shockers this time in but outside of those runs has form good enough to win this, will get put into the race and provided he is on his game will take plenty of beating
4 ULTIMATE SECRET $21 another resuming but only had average form last time in so prepared to risk
5 WINDY WINGS $15 had support but didn't do much at first Tassie run, obviously doing something to justify the support so keeping safer than form suggests. Also engaged in Hobart Sunday
6 JANSZOON $7 both Tassie runs have been okay in better company, will probably have to circle the field to win here which is a big ask but is in the mix
---------- Second Row ----------
7 BENJAMIN SHANNON $21 yet another horse resuming off average form, draws to get a cheap run but place looks best
8 COMMANDER DATA $21 usually goes okay here but best runs have been when drawn to use its gatespeed so wait for a front row draw
9 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $15 going better than form suggests, 3 wide the trip in a much harder race last time. Draw does it no favours but will appreciate the drop in class and may surprise
10 ROCKY CREEK $11 excellent run when resuming and did plenty of work in the run and boxed on bravely, another who is best suited when drawn the front but has some hope if can work into the race
Ratings 3/2/1/6/10/9
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) $21 form is average to say the least but isn't going quite as bad as it seems. Wouldn't surprise to see him bob up in the placings if does everything right
2 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $17 resuming for a new stable and whilst he he usually a reliable stand performer (led at past 4 stand start runs) his form prior to a spell was average and he isn't getting any younger so prefer to watch
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $11 just continues to run an honest race every week, needs a bit to go his way to win but certainly won't shirk the task
4 RONNIE RAT ($5,000) $4 looks extremely well graded dropping back from FFA grade and usually loves stand starts, if he led he shouldn't get beaten. Looks a decent buy at the price to be honest
5 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $5 the king of the claimers who has won 8 of past 13 at this level and been placed 2nd on another 3 occasions but has led the majority of the time and there is plenty of speed under him here so prepared to risk a little. Too honest to leave out though and if led again would go mighty close
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $21 went too poorly last time to be a factor here
---------- Second Row ----------
7 MY CENTURION NZ ($5,000) $15 usually runs an honest race so might sneak into the placings
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $6 well graded on best form but was a shade disappointing last time but still wasn't too bad. Will be around the mark somewhere
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($7,000) $4 has had races run to suit and been well driven to capitalise at past 2 when has smashed them, he is flying at the moment and if the leaders run it truly again which looks some chance then he would be the one to beat
Ratings 4/9/8/5/3/field
Race 5
1 AS YOU WISH $7 loves to follow speed and with his stablemate drawn gate 2 he is likely to get every hope, if the split comes he might blouse them late
2 KEPT CALM $3.5 led and got nabbed on the line in a harder race last time (finished off in 58.6), if he leads around here will take a ton of running down
3 OUR SIR THOMAS $15 sit/sprint type resuming and would be competitive in this at best but prefer place only
4 BORNFIRST $34 generally goes well on this track but past few have been ordinary so wait until he shows something
5 SPECIAL GALLENTI $8 been racing in good form but goes best when drawn to lead and would be the one to beat if he did lead but doubt he will get over here so may struggle as tends to pull hard when he doesn't lead
6 PAV AND KIM (Em 1)
---------- Second Row ----------
7 IN CRUISE MODE $15 resuming and has plenty of ability at best, likely to be buried on pegs from here though so will need plenty of luck to figure
8 CRASH CART $3.5 bolted in last time after a dream run in transit, follows out a quick beginner here so looks likely to enjoy a similar run again. Hard to beat
9 KING ALBERT $15 this is the easiest race he has met in a long time but its also a long time since he won, one for exotics
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $15 unsuited by the tempo last week when unable to work into race, will obviously need it run to suit to figure from this draw but going as well as anything
11 TROJAN CALM NZ $34 didn't do a lot when resuming and whilst is well up to this race on best form its hard to make a case from this gate
Ratings 2/8/1/5/10/9/7/3
Race 6
1 INCHBYINCH $2.0 disappointing animal who looked like becoming a fair horse when younger, still draws to lead here and take a ton of running down
2 CELTIC LEGEND $6 honest type who is always thereabouts, doesn't win out of turn but will be around the placings somewhere
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER $26 resumes and wasn't too bad at first couple of starts but prefer to see
4 RAMSAYS FURY $15 was actually a fair run last week when resuming, might be value for exotics
5 SPACE KNIGHT $51 form simply isn't good enough to feature from this gate
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER $11 resuming and generally is competitive but the draw makes it tough
---------- Second Row ----------
7 POP BILLY (Em 1)
8 DREAM OF THE WEST $15 one paced mare who whacks away all day, draws to follow the speed here though so looms as a distinct place chance
9 LOOK LOOK $21 ran a couple of decent races earlier in the season and hasn;t had the best of luck of late, might run a race at odds with luck
10 INTHENICKOFTIME $21 another who is going better than form suggests, probably can't win but will certainly be including in exotics
11 PROVENANCE $7 well up to winning this on best form but is resuming and has a horror gate to overcome, has also broken at past 3 starts so needs to be taken on trust a bit. Maybe just watch him with an eye to the future betting wise
Ratings 1/2/11/7/6/4/9/10
Race 7
1 MISTER GALLENTI $4 stand is a bit of a query as with a lot of runners here but is going well so if steps its a huge advantage in a 2200m race around here
2 FORTY TWO GRAND $8 changed stables after being claimed last week, recent efforts have been honest but still some hope by the very nature of the race
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $13 been ordinary in all Tasmanian runs so far, has had a break though so might go better this time in but would need to. Watch betting
4 MOLLIE FINN $9 fair run when resuming when had every hope and battled away, would need to do everything right to be a winning hope but can't rule her out
5 PENNYS DRAGON $13 be well up to this class on best form but recent form has been below par, last run was a touch better though so might be ready to show something
6 SWEETEN THE POT $7 form tapered off at the end of last campaign but resumes here and at her best would be very competitive. Watch market
7 GRAND BROOK $17 honest type who is never far away but rarely wins so place may be best
8 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $6 appeared to have his chance last time but they did run 1.59 so may have gone better than it looked in hindsight, will need to do everything right from here but is still one of a host of winning hopes
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $7 well backed at FFA level last time when led and faded, the handicap makes things tough here but clearly well up to this on class
10 DODGERMEMATE $9 another who looks well graded but I can't emphasisie enough how tough it is to win from handicaps around Devonport, still must include as is simply better than most of them
Ratings 1/?????????? Simply too hard, definite field job
Race 8
1 LITTLE MISS AJAY $26 has run the occasional good race in the past but simply didn't do enough first up to rate a chance even from this draw around here
2 KOIZORA $4 looks the leader which is always a plus around here, if she gets left alone might become the one to beat
3 MIGHTY MYF $34 form simply isn't good enough
4 SASSY RULER $8 honest mare resuming, lacks a bit of speed but never shirks the task so a must for exotics
5 DAINTY SUNRISE $51 need a massive improvement on recent form
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $7 not well drawn but been finishing close up with the other favs recently so some hope with luck
---------- Second Row ----------
7 KATES ALLY $13 has pulled very hard at all Tassie runs, wouldn't be surprised to see improvement at first start back
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ $1.80 looks well placed here, has good trailing draw and clearly the one to beat
9 BAJARDO RIVER $17 always races well here so despite being pretty plain of late she might bob up into the placings
Ratings 8/2/6/4/9/7
My stats actually show that Devonport is the best place for me to bet as due to the nature of the track the speed map means just as much as the formguide but this meeting is simply too hard. I gave up an race 7 in the end, if you are taking a quad or a double with that race then take the field as impossible to rule any horse out.
Race 1
1 SCARLETT BLAZE $4 has run some terrific races at times this season but past couple have just been a tad below best. From this gate though is a leading hope as if he led and raced at his best would win for sure
2 THE ACES $9 raced without luck last campaign so ignore the figure form as right in this on best form. Must respect at first run back
3 ELLIE LATTE $4.5 first starter who trialled very well here recently and also chased home a couple of smart ones at the trials prior to that so is a huge watch
4 NO TIME TO DREAM $34 resuming and whilst she did race some handy ones last time in this still looks too tough
5 JOEY MERCURY NZ $26 has run some cheeky races at times but from this gate first up prepared to risk
6 SURPRISE PURCHASE $8 goes best when drawn to lead and mighty hard to do that from this barrier at Devonport but will be going forward early and if found the front would be a huge chance and still a rough hope if doesn't lead as can work in his races
---------- Second Row ----------
7 APACHE ALBA $21 wasn't too bad last time and draws to take the cheap way home so one for exotics
8 TENT PEG (Em 1)
9 TRELAWNEY $51 first starter and been pretty plain at the trials
10 REALLY IMATIGERESS $26 has some ability but may find it tough from this draw, not the worst
11 LINE THE POCKET NZ $3.8 simply enormous last time against better than these making up a ton of ground in a 28.8 closing split. Hard to be confident from this draw around here though but take a ton of beating with even luck
Ratings 11/1/3?/6/2/7
Race 2
1 MODERN ANGEL $1.80 is a filly taking on the boys and has a lot of ability but can get it wrong at times, showed some early speed at last run so if led up here would be entitled to start fav
2 PUBLICAN PETE $3.8 resuming and has been in the market at every run and also been competitive. Would need to be at the top of his game if the pole led but still clearly the main danger
3 THE JET $15 resumes without a trial and did run well at debut 3 starts back so keeping relatively safe whilst fresh despite finishing last at his 2 subsequent runs
4 PARKMOUNT LADY $34 first starter who hasn't set the world on fire at the trials
5 SHEZALITTLERUSTLER $51 had 4 starts and never looked likely, wait until she shows something
6 BENJI VEE $11 won his first 2 starts as an early 2YO but hasn't been placed in 8 subsequent runs, however his first up run wasn't too bad in a stronger race so if gets any luck from the barrier may surprise
---------- Second Row ----------
7 ZIMERO $34 form on paper reads 7444 which doesn't look too bad but in reality its last, 2nd last, last and last so isn't as impressive as it seems. Has finished close up a few times though and trials haven't been awful so with the trailing draw maybe one for the first four
8 BARE ROCK BOY $21 was in the market on debut when got it wrong and hasn't trialled so hard to assess but from the 2nd row am prepared to risk unless there is some major backing for him
9 SMILEUPONUS $11 good run in a strong race last time, certainly has her share of ability but manners let her down currently. If puts it together is a good place prospect though
Ratings 1/2/6/9/3/8/7
Race 3
1 PRINCE CALAF $6 ex Victorian with average form but joins in form stable and has gatespeed which is a huge positive around here. Big watch
2 TRULY BLISSFULL $4 inconsistent mare who has plenty of ability at best, hasn't trialled publicly for her return but is a must include
3 CHANCEABET $4 tough pacer who has run a couple of shockers this time in but outside of those runs has form good enough to win this, will get put into the race and provided he is on his game will take plenty of beating
4 ULTIMATE SECRET $21 another resuming but only had average form last time in so prepared to risk
5 WINDY WINGS $15 had support but didn't do much at first Tassie run, obviously doing something to justify the support so keeping safer than form suggests. Also engaged in Hobart Sunday
6 JANSZOON $7 both Tassie runs have been okay in better company, will probably have to circle the field to win here which is a big ask but is in the mix
---------- Second Row ----------
7 BENJAMIN SHANNON $21 yet another horse resuming off average form, draws to get a cheap run but place looks best
8 COMMANDER DATA $21 usually goes okay here but best runs have been when drawn to use its gatespeed so wait for a front row draw
9 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $15 going better than form suggests, 3 wide the trip in a much harder race last time. Draw does it no favours but will appreciate the drop in class and may surprise
10 ROCKY CREEK $11 excellent run when resuming and did plenty of work in the run and boxed on bravely, another who is best suited when drawn the front but has some hope if can work into the race
Ratings 3/2/1/6/10/9
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) $21 form is average to say the least but isn't going quite as bad as it seems. Wouldn't surprise to see him bob up in the placings if does everything right
2 PRINCE OF TARA NZ ($5,000) $17 resuming for a new stable and whilst he he usually a reliable stand performer (led at past 4 stand start runs) his form prior to a spell was average and he isn't getting any younger so prefer to watch
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) $11 just continues to run an honest race every week, needs a bit to go his way to win but certainly won't shirk the task
4 RONNIE RAT ($5,000) $4 looks extremely well graded dropping back from FFA grade and usually loves stand starts, if he led he shouldn't get beaten. Looks a decent buy at the price to be honest
5 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) $5 the king of the claimers who has won 8 of past 13 at this level and been placed 2nd on another 3 occasions but has led the majority of the time and there is plenty of speed under him here so prepared to risk a little. Too honest to leave out though and if led again would go mighty close
6 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) $21 went too poorly last time to be a factor here
---------- Second Row ----------
7 MY CENTURION NZ ($5,000) $15 usually runs an honest race so might sneak into the placings
8 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) $6 well graded on best form but was a shade disappointing last time but still wasn't too bad. Will be around the mark somewhere
9 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($7,000) $4 has had races run to suit and been well driven to capitalise at past 2 when has smashed them, he is flying at the moment and if the leaders run it truly again which looks some chance then he would be the one to beat
Ratings 4/9/8/5/3/field
Race 5
1 AS YOU WISH $7 loves to follow speed and with his stablemate drawn gate 2 he is likely to get every hope, if the split comes he might blouse them late
2 KEPT CALM $3.5 led and got nabbed on the line in a harder race last time (finished off in 58.6), if he leads around here will take a ton of running down
3 OUR SIR THOMAS $15 sit/sprint type resuming and would be competitive in this at best but prefer place only
4 BORNFIRST $34 generally goes well on this track but past few have been ordinary so wait until he shows something
5 SPECIAL GALLENTI $8 been racing in good form but goes best when drawn to lead and would be the one to beat if he did lead but doubt he will get over here so may struggle as tends to pull hard when he doesn't lead
6 PAV AND KIM (Em 1)
---------- Second Row ----------
7 IN CRUISE MODE $15 resuming and has plenty of ability at best, likely to be buried on pegs from here though so will need plenty of luck to figure
8 CRASH CART $3.5 bolted in last time after a dream run in transit, follows out a quick beginner here so looks likely to enjoy a similar run again. Hard to beat
9 KING ALBERT $15 this is the easiest race he has met in a long time but its also a long time since he won, one for exotics
10 MURPHYS ROCKET $15 unsuited by the tempo last week when unable to work into race, will obviously need it run to suit to figure from this draw but going as well as anything
11 TROJAN CALM NZ $34 didn't do a lot when resuming and whilst is well up to this race on best form its hard to make a case from this gate
Ratings 2/8/1/5/10/9/7/3
Race 6
1 INCHBYINCH $2.0 disappointing animal who looked like becoming a fair horse when younger, still draws to lead here and take a ton of running down
2 CELTIC LEGEND $6 honest type who is always thereabouts, doesn't win out of turn but will be around the placings somewhere
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER $26 resumes and wasn't too bad at first couple of starts but prefer to see
4 RAMSAYS FURY $15 was actually a fair run last week when resuming, might be value for exotics
5 SPACE KNIGHT $51 form simply isn't good enough to feature from this gate
6 JUST LIKE THUNDER $11 resuming and generally is competitive but the draw makes it tough
---------- Second Row ----------
7 POP BILLY (Em 1)
8 DREAM OF THE WEST $15 one paced mare who whacks away all day, draws to follow the speed here though so looms as a distinct place chance
9 LOOK LOOK $21 ran a couple of decent races earlier in the season and hasn;t had the best of luck of late, might run a race at odds with luck
10 INTHENICKOFTIME $21 another who is going better than form suggests, probably can't win but will certainly be including in exotics
11 PROVENANCE $7 well up to winning this on best form but is resuming and has a horror gate to overcome, has also broken at past 3 starts so needs to be taken on trust a bit. Maybe just watch him with an eye to the future betting wise
Ratings 1/2/11/7/6/4/9/10
Race 7
1 MISTER GALLENTI $4 stand is a bit of a query as with a lot of runners here but is going well so if steps its a huge advantage in a 2200m race around here
2 FORTY TWO GRAND $8 changed stables after being claimed last week, recent efforts have been honest but still some hope by the very nature of the race
3 TELLMESOMETHINGOOD NZ $13 been ordinary in all Tasmanian runs so far, has had a break though so might go better this time in but would need to. Watch betting
4 MOLLIE FINN $9 fair run when resuming when had every hope and battled away, would need to do everything right to be a winning hope but can't rule her out
5 PENNYS DRAGON $13 be well up to this class on best form but recent form has been below par, last run was a touch better though so might be ready to show something
6 SWEETEN THE POT $7 form tapered off at the end of last campaign but resumes here and at her best would be very competitive. Watch market
7 GRAND BROOK $17 honest type who is never far away but rarely wins so place may be best
8 MIAMI ROCKET NZ $6 appeared to have his chance last time but they did run 1.59 so may have gone better than it looked in hindsight, will need to do everything right from here but is still one of a host of winning hopes
9 JUST MAKE OUR DEIGH NZ $7 well backed at FFA level last time when led and faded, the handicap makes things tough here but clearly well up to this on class
10 DODGERMEMATE $9 another who looks well graded but I can't emphasisie enough how tough it is to win from handicaps around Devonport, still must include as is simply better than most of them
Ratings 1/?????????? Simply too hard, definite field job
Race 8
1 LITTLE MISS AJAY $26 has run the occasional good race in the past but simply didn't do enough first up to rate a chance even from this draw around here
2 KOIZORA $4 looks the leader which is always a plus around here, if she gets left alone might become the one to beat
3 MIGHTY MYF $34 form simply isn't good enough
4 SASSY RULER $8 honest mare resuming, lacks a bit of speed but never shirks the task so a must for exotics
5 DAINTY SUNRISE $51 need a massive improvement on recent form
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $7 not well drawn but been finishing close up with the other favs recently so some hope with luck
---------- Second Row ----------
7 KATES ALLY $13 has pulled very hard at all Tassie runs, wouldn't be surprised to see improvement at first start back
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ $1.80 looks well placed here, has good trailing draw and clearly the one to beat
9 BAJARDO RIVER $17 always races well here so despite being pretty plain of late she might bob up into the placings
Ratings 8/2/6/4/9/7
Sunday, October 31, 2010
I should have won a fortune tonight
Only mucked around as didn't really like the meeting or would have got plenty. Included below my post in the speed maps thread with SuperTab divs. $9k quaddie bites
Race 1
Winning hopes - 3,4
Place hopes - 9,1,10,6,2
Win ( 4 ) $3.80
1st Place ( 4 ) $1.30
2nd Place ( 9 ) $2.90
3rd Place ( 3 ) $1.10
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 4 / 9 ) $14.80
Exacta ( 4 / 9 ) $28.40
First 4 ( 4 / 9 / 3 / 6 ) $307.80
Trifecta ( 4 / 9 / 3 ) $58.00
Race 2
Winning hopes - 1,2,8,3
Place hopes - 4,10
Win ( 3 ) $12.90
1st Place ( 3 ) $3.10
2nd Place ( 2 ) $1.30
3rd Place ( 7 ) $10.30
4th Place ( 1 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 3 ) $22.30
Exacta ( 3 / 2 ) $93.00
First 4 ( 3 / 2 / 7 / 1 ) $3214.70
Trifecta ( 3 / 2 / 7 ) $1215.10
Running Double ( 1 - 2 ) ( 4 / 3 ) $13.60
Race 3
Winning hopes - 1,4,8
Place hopes - 2,9,11
Win ( 4 ) $23.30
1st Place ( 4 ) $3.80
2nd Place ( 8 ) $1.40
3rd Place ( 11 ) $2.20
4th Place ( 9 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 4 / 8 ) $31.50
Exacta ( 4 / 8 ) $83.20
First 4 ( 4 / 8 / 11 / 9 ) $1426.50
Trifecta ( 4 / 8 / 11 ) $577.70
Running Double ( 2 - 3 ) ( 3 / 4 ) $54.20
Race 4
Winning hopes - 1,2
Place hopes - 3,4,8,9
Win ( 9 ) $12.80
1st Place ( 9 ) $2.90
2nd Place ( 10 ) $2.70
3rd Place ( 1 ) $1.04
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 9 / 10 ) $61.20
Exacta ( 9 / 10 ) $81.20
First 4 ( 9 / 10 / 1 / 6 ) $1953.00
Trifecta ( 9 / 10 / 1 ) $370.40
Running Double ( 3 - 4 ) ( 4 / 9 ) $68.40
Race 5
Winning hopes - 2,6,10
Place hopes - 1,8,9
Win ( 10 ) $5.00
1st Place ( 10 ) $2.20
2nd Place ( 1 ) $1.60
3rd Place ( 2 ) $1.70
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 10 ) $15.30
Exacta ( 10 / 1 ) $32.80
First 4 ( 10 / 1 / 2 / 6 ) $435.10
Trifecta ( 10 / 1 / 2 ) $111.20
Running Double ( 4 - 5 ) ( 9 / 10 ) $45.10
Race 6
Winning hopes - 1,7
Place hopes - 3,8
Win ( 8 ) $5.20
1st Place ( 8 ) $1.50
2nd Place ( 1 ) $2.20
3rd Place ( 7 ) $1.40
4th Place ( 5 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 8 ) $20.50
Exacta ( 8 / 1 ) $34.10
First 4 ( 8 / 1 / 7 / 5 ) $312.90
Trifecta ( 8 / 1 / 7 ) $53.20
Consolation Double ( 4 - 6 ) ( 9 / 1 ) $53.20
Consolation Double ( 4 - 6 ) ( 9 / 8 ) $33.10
Running Double ( 5 - 6 ) ( 10 / 8 ) $27.60
Race 7
Winning hopes - 3,5
Place hopes - 1,2,9
Win ( 9 ) $14.90
1st Place ( 9 ) $3.80
2nd Place ( 1 ) $2.30
3rd Place ( 3 ) $1.10
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 9 ) $60.80
Exacta ( 9 / 1 ) $788.20
First 4 ( 9 / 1 / 3 / 6 ) $1271.70
Trifecta ( 9 / 1 / 3 ) $378.10
Daily Double ( 5 - 7 ) ( 10 / 9 ) $167.00
Quadrella ( 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 ) ( 9 / 10 / 8 / 9 ) $9036.70
Running Double ( 6 - 7 ) ( 8 / 9 ) $51.20
Race 8
Winning hopes - 2,7
Place hopes - 4,5
Win ( 2 ) $2.60
1st Place ( 2 ) $1.20
2nd Place ( 7 ) $2.00
3rd Place ( 4 ) $1.40
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 7 ) $5.10
Exacta ( 2 / 7 ) $9.50
First 4 ( 2 / 7 / 4 / 6 ) $209.30
Trifecta ( 2 / 7 / 4 ) $31.60
Running Double ( 7 - 8 ) ( 9 / 2 ) $44.30
Race 9
Winning hopes - 2,4
Place hopes - 3,5
Win ( 2 ) $2.60
1st Place ( 2 ) $1.70
2nd Place ( 4 ) $1.50
3rd Place ( 5 ) No dividend
4th Place ( 1 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 4 ) $3.00
Exacta ( 2 / 4 ) $6.40
First 4 ( 2 / 4 / 5 / 1 ) $52.40
Trifecta ( 2 / 4 / 5 ) $7.60
Running Double ( 8 - 9 ) ( 2 / 2 ) $9.40
Race 1
Winning hopes - 3,4
Place hopes - 9,1,10,6,2
Win ( 4 ) $3.80
1st Place ( 4 ) $1.30
2nd Place ( 9 ) $2.90
3rd Place ( 3 ) $1.10
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 4 / 9 ) $14.80
Exacta ( 4 / 9 ) $28.40
First 4 ( 4 / 9 / 3 / 6 ) $307.80
Trifecta ( 4 / 9 / 3 ) $58.00
Race 2
Winning hopes - 1,2,8,3
Place hopes - 4,10
Win ( 3 ) $12.90
1st Place ( 3 ) $3.10
2nd Place ( 2 ) $1.30
3rd Place ( 7 ) $10.30
4th Place ( 1 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 3 ) $22.30
Exacta ( 3 / 2 ) $93.00
First 4 ( 3 / 2 / 7 / 1 ) $3214.70
Trifecta ( 3 / 2 / 7 ) $1215.10
Running Double ( 1 - 2 ) ( 4 / 3 ) $13.60
Race 3
Winning hopes - 1,4,8
Place hopes - 2,9,11
Win ( 4 ) $23.30
1st Place ( 4 ) $3.80
2nd Place ( 8 ) $1.40
3rd Place ( 11 ) $2.20
4th Place ( 9 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 4 / 8 ) $31.50
Exacta ( 4 / 8 ) $83.20
First 4 ( 4 / 8 / 11 / 9 ) $1426.50
Trifecta ( 4 / 8 / 11 ) $577.70
Running Double ( 2 - 3 ) ( 3 / 4 ) $54.20
Race 4
Winning hopes - 1,2
Place hopes - 3,4,8,9
Win ( 9 ) $12.80
1st Place ( 9 ) $2.90
2nd Place ( 10 ) $2.70
3rd Place ( 1 ) $1.04
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 9 / 10 ) $61.20
Exacta ( 9 / 10 ) $81.20
First 4 ( 9 / 10 / 1 / 6 ) $1953.00
Trifecta ( 9 / 10 / 1 ) $370.40
Running Double ( 3 - 4 ) ( 4 / 9 ) $68.40
Race 5
Winning hopes - 2,6,10
Place hopes - 1,8,9
Win ( 10 ) $5.00
1st Place ( 10 ) $2.20
2nd Place ( 1 ) $1.60
3rd Place ( 2 ) $1.70
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 10 ) $15.30
Exacta ( 10 / 1 ) $32.80
First 4 ( 10 / 1 / 2 / 6 ) $435.10
Trifecta ( 10 / 1 / 2 ) $111.20
Running Double ( 4 - 5 ) ( 9 / 10 ) $45.10
Race 6
Winning hopes - 1,7
Place hopes - 3,8
Win ( 8 ) $5.20
1st Place ( 8 ) $1.50
2nd Place ( 1 ) $2.20
3rd Place ( 7 ) $1.40
4th Place ( 5 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 8 ) $20.50
Exacta ( 8 / 1 ) $34.10
First 4 ( 8 / 1 / 7 / 5 ) $312.90
Trifecta ( 8 / 1 / 7 ) $53.20
Consolation Double ( 4 - 6 ) ( 9 / 1 ) $53.20
Consolation Double ( 4 - 6 ) ( 9 / 8 ) $33.10
Running Double ( 5 - 6 ) ( 10 / 8 ) $27.60
Race 7
Winning hopes - 3,5
Place hopes - 1,2,9
Win ( 9 ) $14.90
1st Place ( 9 ) $3.80
2nd Place ( 1 ) $2.30
3rd Place ( 3 ) $1.10
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 1 / 9 ) $60.80
Exacta ( 9 / 1 ) $788.20
First 4 ( 9 / 1 / 3 / 6 ) $1271.70
Trifecta ( 9 / 1 / 3 ) $378.10
Daily Double ( 5 - 7 ) ( 10 / 9 ) $167.00
Quadrella ( 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 ) ( 9 / 10 / 8 / 9 ) $9036.70
Running Double ( 6 - 7 ) ( 8 / 9 ) $51.20
Race 8
Winning hopes - 2,7
Place hopes - 4,5
Win ( 2 ) $2.60
1st Place ( 2 ) $1.20
2nd Place ( 7 ) $2.00
3rd Place ( 4 ) $1.40
4th Place ( 6 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 7 ) $5.10
Exacta ( 2 / 7 ) $9.50
First 4 ( 2 / 7 / 4 / 6 ) $209.30
Trifecta ( 2 / 7 / 4 ) $31.60
Running Double ( 7 - 8 ) ( 9 / 2 ) $44.30
Race 9
Winning hopes - 2,4
Place hopes - 3,5
Win ( 2 ) $2.60
1st Place ( 2 ) $1.70
2nd Place ( 4 ) $1.50
3rd Place ( 5 ) No dividend
4th Place ( 1 ) No dividend
Quinella ( 2 / 4 ) $3.00
Exacta ( 2 / 4 ) $6.40
First 4 ( 2 / 4 / 5 / 1 ) $52.40
Trifecta ( 2 / 4 / 5 ) $7.60
Running Double ( 8 - 9 ) ( 2 / 2 ) $9.40
Sunday Live Bets
Just for something different, will post a few bets. Won't be betting much tonight so might pass a bit of time
Race 1
Trifecta 3,4/3,4/1,2,6,9,10 x $5 cost $50
Box Tri 3,4,9 x $5 cost $30
All up
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 1
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $10 cost $120
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 2
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $2.5 cost $30
$40 Flying Dubai @ $4.50 Betfair
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 (don't like race much)
Box quin 1,2,8 x $20 cost $60
Bro Town $20 a win
Never ever going to get a result there, garbage race form wise too as I half expected. Probably shouldn't have had a bet
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3
Trifecta 1,4,8/1,4,8,9,11/1,2,4,8,9,10,11 x $1 cost $60 collect $577.70
$20 a win El Jays Modeena 1st $23.30 collect $466
$60 a win Alma Grant
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4
$96 on quaddie (same as below)
Dieberdon $120 a win - min $1.80 (already got enough on with all up and quaddie)
How to stuff a race up exhibit A, no idea what they were thinking on Blacktie Affair deciding to lead as never finishes off when used early and was half a distance doubt too even if driven cold, drew perfectly to get the type of run it loves too as any leader was always going to cop it from Justasmyrk down the back and she should have been the one on its back (where the winner was). Dieberdon did a ton of work last time and beat Flying Dubai and goes like a cripple tonight and FD wins by panels. Anyway, onto the next race
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Race 5
Daily Double 1,2,6,10/3,5 x $10 cost $80
Trifecta 1,2,6,10/1,2,6,8,9,10/1,2,6,8,9,10 x $0.50 cost $40 collect $55.60
River In Bluejeans $20 a win
3 favs fight it out but a little bit of something is better than a whole lot of nothing. Should have had something on the winner given the price it got out to. Doubles be small also as was fav in media and early tote fav
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6
Dutch bet
Sky Tower $90 (have to back him, have his photo on blog :))
Winjammer $50
Thought I couldn't miss all race there but did!! Can never catch that horse Gettysburgh Address, bloody stiff Sky Tower when the muppet on Angus Macregor pulled out in front of him. Got $9.2 Winjammer also :(
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7
Teejay Fella $60 a win - disgraceful
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 box quin 2,5,7 x $25 cost $75 collect $127.5
Tri 2,5,7/2,4,5,7/2,4,5,7 x $3 cost $54 collect $94.8
Its A Hoot $60 a win
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 9
Don't like this race at all with #4 being impossible to assess so silly little bet
Smokin Mustard 25x50 confident that runs 2nd at worst as should get soft lead and place sometimes holds up when 1,2 only but wouldn't recommend the bet
Collect $150 but never again it
---------------------------------------------------------------
Invest $1310
Collect:
Trifecta race 1 $290
Win race 1 $180
Trifecta race 3 $577.70
Win race 3 $466
Trifecta race 5 $55.60
Quinella race 8 $127.50
Trifecta race 8 $94.60
Win race 9 $150
Total collects $1941.40
Profir $631.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1
Trifecta 3,4/3,4/1,2,6,9,10 x $5 cost $50
Box Tri 3,4,9 x $5 cost $30
All up
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 1
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $10 cost $120
R1 - 3,4
R4 - 2
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 2,5,7
x $2.5 cost $30
$40 Flying Dubai @ $4.50 Betfair
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 (don't like race much)
Box quin 1,2,8 x $20 cost $60
Bro Town $20 a win
Never ever going to get a result there, garbage race form wise too as I half expected. Probably shouldn't have had a bet
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3
Trifecta 1,4,8/1,4,8,9,11/1,2,4,8,9,10,11 x $1 cost $60 collect $577.70
$20 a win El Jays Modeena 1st $23.30 collect $466
$60 a win Alma Grant
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4
$96 on quaddie (same as below)
Dieberdon $120 a win - min $1.80 (already got enough on with all up and quaddie)
How to stuff a race up exhibit A, no idea what they were thinking on Blacktie Affair deciding to lead as never finishes off when used early and was half a distance doubt too even if driven cold, drew perfectly to get the type of run it loves too as any leader was always going to cop it from Justasmyrk down the back and she should have been the one on its back (where the winner was). Dieberdon did a ton of work last time and beat Flying Dubai and goes like a cripple tonight and FD wins by panels. Anyway, onto the next race
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5
Daily Double 1,2,6,10/3,5 x $10 cost $80
Trifecta 1,2,6,10/1,2,6,8,9,10/1,2,6,8,9,10 x $0.50 cost $40 collect $55.60
River In Bluejeans $20 a win
3 favs fight it out but a little bit of something is better than a whole lot of nothing. Should have had something on the winner given the price it got out to. Doubles be small also as was fav in media and early tote fav
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6
Dutch bet
Sky Tower $90 (have to back him, have his photo on blog :))
Winjammer $50
Thought I couldn't miss all race there but did!! Can never catch that horse Gettysburgh Address, bloody stiff Sky Tower when the muppet on Angus Macregor pulled out in front of him. Got $9.2 Winjammer also :(
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7
Teejay Fella $60 a win - disgraceful
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 box quin 2,5,7 x $25 cost $75 collect $127.5
Tri 2,5,7/2,4,5,7/2,4,5,7 x $3 cost $54 collect $94.8
Its A Hoot $60 a win
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 9
Don't like this race at all with #4 being impossible to assess so silly little bet
Smokin Mustard 25x50 confident that runs 2nd at worst as should get soft lead and place sometimes holds up when 1,2 only but wouldn't recommend the bet
Collect $150 but never again it
---------------------------------------------------------------
Invest $1310
Collect:
Trifecta race 1 $290
Win race 1 $180
Trifecta race 3 $577.70
Win race 3 $466
Trifecta race 5 $55.60
Quinella race 8 $127.50
Trifecta race 8 $94.60
Win race 9 $150
Total collects $1941.40
Profir $631.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
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