Harness Racing is stronger in Tasmania now than it has been in ages. The prizemoney is good, liquidity in pools is growing which encourages punters to bet and a couple of horses are coming through that are the best I have seen in ages so things are looking promising going forward.
The Horses
Once again, Shez Ryleymak flew the flag with a 2nd in the Group 1 Vicbred final and she just continues to step up year after year. There were some exciting new kids on the block though headed by Gedlee who ran an amazing 2nd to Lanercost in the Australian Derby after galloping at the start, tacking on and running him to a length at the finish. I can still remember the day he made me sit up and take notice that he might be a serious horse as he hadn't done anything too startling prior to this run. He led one day at Launceston and then reeled off a 56.5 last half whilst hard held which was a week prior to the Australian Derby run and ever since then has gone to another level and I can't wait to see him back around Christmas time as he is the most promising horse I have seen in Tassie for ages. It actually looks a bumper crop of 3YOs in Tassie with Udoit doing good things in Victoria late in the season and Saturday Night bursting on the scene winning his only 3 starts by half the length of the straight so will be very interesting to see how they all come back. Cullens Angel is another to make her mark this year winning in 1.54 and making the Breeders Crown final where her chances were killed by the barrier draw but still ran a respectable race. Even a couple of 2YOs impressed with Quastor Centurion winning 8 from 10 and Winewomenandsong winning his only 2 starts late in the season.
The Drivers
Once again it was dominated by Gareth Rattray who just failed to beat the single season record held by his father. As somebody who watches tons of Tasmanian races, it simply amazes me how consistently good Gareth is and like most punters I can be very critical about drivers. Many others should take note of exactly what he does because its obviously not all down to ability, sure his surname may have given him some advantages early on but you only have to speak to him and his knowledge of everything from form to breeding shines through and that is obviously a big part of his success. The new kid on the block though is Nathan Ford who took things to another level this year winning the junior drivers award easily and capping off his year with a couple of wins at Melton on Cullens Angel. Watching him drive early on it was always apparent that horses ran for Nathan but he was still a little raw but now he is simply a very good driver and with the backing of a very strong stable, he might just be nipping at Gareth's heels this year. Should also make mention of the performance of Erin Hollaway in winning the ladies driver award as a junior who managed to run down the talented Nat Emery late in the season.
The Trainers
Philip Ford just went to another level this year and seemed to train at least a double at most meetings late in the season. If he can continue in the same vein of form he is a good chance to crack the century of winners this year. Grant Hodges went through a bit of a lean spell during the season but he really came back with a bang towards the end of the year.
Going forward
Hopefully one of the 3YO horses from last year can step up and make it to the big league as been a while since Tassie had a seriously good horse - we would like to claim Villagem but he was only bred here and came back for a a handful of 2yo races. For me, Gedlee might be the one as he has untapped talent so lets just hope I haven't put the kiss of death on him. Trying to pluck one from left field, I reckon a 2YO filly from last season Codie Karalta might step up this year, she didn't overly flatter last season in winning 2 of 6 but she looks a likely type and is also well bred being a half sister to Villagem and closely related to Cody Maverick.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Monday, September 6, 2010
Launceston Meeting Summary, September 5
The meeting produced some very strangely run races and a few ordinary performances but there were a couple of horses worth following who should win for sure in the near future
Blackbookers from meeting
Cindys Babe
Brian Buster Brown
Drive of the Night
David Medhurst (Touchwood Bucksta), drew outside the front row in barrier 8 yet never went round a horse prior to the home straight to get up on the line. Given the sectionals in that they finished off in 28.1 he definitely wouldn't have even run a place if he went round them so is an obvious winner this week
Run of the Night
Cindys Babe, usually like to award this to a winner but nothing really stood out and she was simply enormous in defeat, was 3 and 4 wide for the entire first 400m of the race around the first turn then ground her co-favourite into the ground only to be nailed on the line by a horse who had enjoyed an easier run. Both Bonnie Wee Laddie and Albert Jones were stiff in defeat in the Claimer also
Slaughter of the Night
Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), strangely enough I awarded the same combo drive of the night last week but it wasn't pretty this week. Think thats the major problem with the drive actually - he tried to drive it pretty! It was okay to drive it that way last week when a $12 chance but as a $1.50 fav this week there should have been nothing left to chance. When on a long odds on pop who is travelling you don't get involved in a jostling match on the turn and finish up locking wheels and costing the horse the race. If he took off 4 wide at the 400 he would have won by 5 metres minimum. Some may say he was unlucky and that may well be the case but he simply shouldn't have been in the situation he was
From the Sectional Times
Harbhajan - lead time of 42.1 is the quickest I have seen since recording them. He actually ran the first 1800m of the race in 2.12.7 which is equivalent to a mile rate of 1.58.6. Wasn't the fault of anybody concerned though as they had to try and use him from barrier 1 and he simply took charge after that. Put it this way, if he didn't get used early and ran his last 1800m in that time he would have won by half the straight
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Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 5.4 (average), first half 62.0, last half 59.0
First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race
Mister Gunadoo (1st), perfectly driven to hand up front then got out at the right time and finished off well
Cindys Babe (2nd), super run, did more work than anything and got nailed on the line by a horse with a softer run. Simply has to win soon
Ark Raid (3rd), had her chance after leading, maybe goes better with a sit
Rock The Pocket (4th), got good run through early and plugged into 4th
Top Premier (5th), got a check at top of the straight but still think he should have finished off better given the soft run
Rosarium (6th), encouraging debut run as held ground with every other runner bar the first 2 over the line
Our Last Knight (7th), decent effort from bad gate, might bob up in a race soon
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Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.04.2, lead time 45.8 (slower than average), first half 64.4, last half 59.6
First 3 over the line clearly superior to the rest
Sanreos (1st), did it right for first time in ages and a good tough win
Bajardo River (2nd), proved the cheeky run the week prior was no fluke and ran home well for close 2nd, wish she won as had something on her at the $50s
Blacktie Affair (3rd), should have won clearly bar for locking wheels on turn
Monicas Notch (4th), locked wheels with fav on turn and battled on just fairly after that
Breathing Fire (5th), resumed from long spell and despite being supported was obviously in need of the run as didn't do much after an easy run in the lead
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Race 3 - C0, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.9, lead time 46.3 (slow), first half 63.7, last half 58.0
First 2 dominated the rest of them
Biggernbettermax (1st), proved again he is a very good leader and very hard to get past when he does
Brian Buster Brown (2nd), super run, loomed up to win at the 100 but being first up plus a closing fraction of 28.1 probably told in the end. He would have run sub 28 himself so hoof is right on the till
Look Look (3rd), well driven to place again. Outclassed by first 2 over line but did beat the rest easily
Artifice (4th), struggled in her first go against the boys as only ever raced against own age and sex previously. Still kept coming in straight and despite being beaten 14 metres she gets some credit as the closing qtr made it impossible to make ground from where she was
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Race 4 - Claimer, 2200m Stand, mile rate 2.05.2, lead time 49.2 (average), first half 63.1, last half 58.8
As per a lot of claiming races it was a bunched finish with a metre separating the first 4 over the line. Mid race interference also impacted a couple as well
Waterloo Bay (1st), manners won him the race by pinging to the early lead. I was a tad disappointed in his performance actually as thought he should have won easier given the run. He did run sub 30 the last 3 quarters though so wasn't too bad
Bonnie Wee Laddie (2nd), pretty stiff not to win at first start for new stable after copping interference in the run. Definitely one to follow in this grade
Costa Smerelda (3rd), good honest run, did a bit of work and never shirked the task. If he can draw to lead will be mighty hard to beat at this level
The Cherokee Chief (4th), better run and also kept whacking away in the straight
Albert Jones (5th), probably threw the race away by galloping mid race when in a perfect position to strike and still finished off okay after that
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Race 5 - C1, 1680m, mile rate 2.02.2, lead time 5.2 (quicker than average), first half 64.7, last half 57.7
Both favs did things wrong which changed the complexion of the race big time, best drive won the race
Touchwood Bucksta (1st), was a super run at previous start but I couldn't see him figuring from barrier 8 over the mile trip but the drive was superb saving a ton of ground. Keep in mind they finished off in 28.1 so still plenty of merit in the win
Barooga Billy (2nd), very disappointing, should have been a certainty once he led and the other favourite galloped but he drifted off the fence and threw it away. Continues to be a very frustrating horse
Boozy Rouge (3rd), probably the best run in the race actually coming wide in a quick last half to finish close up. Is very close to another win
Topotheclouds (4th), never runs a bad race this bloke and will crack it for another win soon
Flying Jasper (5th), every possible, had race presented to him and couldn't take advantage
Livin In Heaven (6th), another cheeky run at odds, didn't help when fav ran off track at the 400 but boxed on okay
Saab Quality (8th), broke after the start which put paid to his chances
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Race 6 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.00.7, lead time 42.1 (very fast), first half 60.6, last half 62.3
Strangely run race where they got slower the longer it went and as always the form in these races is very suspect
Resurgence (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed the gun trip after that, the slogging finish also suited him down to the ground as whacks away all day
Cancellara (2nd), another better run from him, still not at his best but not far off
As You Wish (3rd), enjoyed the solid tempo and kept coming
Harbhajan (4th), total forgive run as took charge of the driver. Was first start back in the draw and got used early from barrier 1 which they had to try and do but is obviously far better suited driven cold
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Race 7 - C4-C6, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.5, lead time 42.8 (very fast), first half 64.5, last half 58.8
Another insanely quick lead time which narrowed the chances early but first 3 over the line all went very well
Topup (1st), enjoyed a gun trip but still put the race away very quickly when asked to sprint, final quarter in 28.2 and he came from off the speed
King Albert (2nd), continues to run good races at big odds. His turn must come soon
The Musics Over (3rd), encouraging return to racing and showed that the fall at previous start hasn't impacted him at all
Wingsofaneagle (6th), showed enormous gatespeed to even keep out King Of Bling initially and I thought he boxed on okay after that. May be one to follow at odds
King Of Bling (8th), spent all his pennies early on but still entitled to fight on a bit better at the end of the race
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Race 8 - 3YO, 2200m, mile rate 2.06.2, lead time 47.4 (very slow), first half 65.8, last half 59.3
Thought the first four all went about as well as each other and it purely came down to the tempo of the race as to who won as it was extremely slow early and therefore leader dominated
Iden Noshot (1st), well driven and once he got the run was always going to be mighty hard to hold off with his speed
Brezhnev Leis (2nd), another honest run, just lacks a bit of speed currently but never gives up
Odins Dragon Rider (3rd), improved run and a win isn't far away
Bettor Draw (4th), early sectionals didn't give him much hope but should have been put into the race much earlier
Blackbookers from meeting
Cindys Babe
Brian Buster Brown
Drive of the Night
David Medhurst (Touchwood Bucksta), drew outside the front row in barrier 8 yet never went round a horse prior to the home straight to get up on the line. Given the sectionals in that they finished off in 28.1 he definitely wouldn't have even run a place if he went round them so is an obvious winner this week
Run of the Night
Cindys Babe, usually like to award this to a winner but nothing really stood out and she was simply enormous in defeat, was 3 and 4 wide for the entire first 400m of the race around the first turn then ground her co-favourite into the ground only to be nailed on the line by a horse who had enjoyed an easier run. Both Bonnie Wee Laddie and Albert Jones were stiff in defeat in the Claimer also
Slaughter of the Night
Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), strangely enough I awarded the same combo drive of the night last week but it wasn't pretty this week. Think thats the major problem with the drive actually - he tried to drive it pretty! It was okay to drive it that way last week when a $12 chance but as a $1.50 fav this week there should have been nothing left to chance. When on a long odds on pop who is travelling you don't get involved in a jostling match on the turn and finish up locking wheels and costing the horse the race. If he took off 4 wide at the 400 he would have won by 5 metres minimum. Some may say he was unlucky and that may well be the case but he simply shouldn't have been in the situation he was
From the Sectional Times
Harbhajan - lead time of 42.1 is the quickest I have seen since recording them. He actually ran the first 1800m of the race in 2.12.7 which is equivalent to a mile rate of 1.58.6. Wasn't the fault of anybody concerned though as they had to try and use him from barrier 1 and he simply took charge after that. Put it this way, if he didn't get used early and ran his last 1800m in that time he would have won by half the straight
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Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 5.4 (average), first half 62.0, last half 59.0
First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race
Mister Gunadoo (1st), perfectly driven to hand up front then got out at the right time and finished off well
Cindys Babe (2nd), super run, did more work than anything and got nailed on the line by a horse with a softer run. Simply has to win soon
Ark Raid (3rd), had her chance after leading, maybe goes better with a sit
Rock The Pocket (4th), got good run through early and plugged into 4th
Top Premier (5th), got a check at top of the straight but still think he should have finished off better given the soft run
Rosarium (6th), encouraging debut run as held ground with every other runner bar the first 2 over the line
Our Last Knight (7th), decent effort from bad gate, might bob up in a race soon
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Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.04.2, lead time 45.8 (slower than average), first half 64.4, last half 59.6
First 3 over the line clearly superior to the rest
Sanreos (1st), did it right for first time in ages and a good tough win
Bajardo River (2nd), proved the cheeky run the week prior was no fluke and ran home well for close 2nd, wish she won as had something on her at the $50s
Blacktie Affair (3rd), should have won clearly bar for locking wheels on turn
Monicas Notch (4th), locked wheels with fav on turn and battled on just fairly after that
Breathing Fire (5th), resumed from long spell and despite being supported was obviously in need of the run as didn't do much after an easy run in the lead
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Race 3 - C0, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.9, lead time 46.3 (slow), first half 63.7, last half 58.0
First 2 dominated the rest of them
Biggernbettermax (1st), proved again he is a very good leader and very hard to get past when he does
Brian Buster Brown (2nd), super run, loomed up to win at the 100 but being first up plus a closing fraction of 28.1 probably told in the end. He would have run sub 28 himself so hoof is right on the till
Look Look (3rd), well driven to place again. Outclassed by first 2 over line but did beat the rest easily
Artifice (4th), struggled in her first go against the boys as only ever raced against own age and sex previously. Still kept coming in straight and despite being beaten 14 metres she gets some credit as the closing qtr made it impossible to make ground from where she was
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Race 4 - Claimer, 2200m Stand, mile rate 2.05.2, lead time 49.2 (average), first half 63.1, last half 58.8
As per a lot of claiming races it was a bunched finish with a metre separating the first 4 over the line. Mid race interference also impacted a couple as well
Waterloo Bay (1st), manners won him the race by pinging to the early lead. I was a tad disappointed in his performance actually as thought he should have won easier given the run. He did run sub 30 the last 3 quarters though so wasn't too bad
Bonnie Wee Laddie (2nd), pretty stiff not to win at first start for new stable after copping interference in the run. Definitely one to follow in this grade
Costa Smerelda (3rd), good honest run, did a bit of work and never shirked the task. If he can draw to lead will be mighty hard to beat at this level
The Cherokee Chief (4th), better run and also kept whacking away in the straight
Albert Jones (5th), probably threw the race away by galloping mid race when in a perfect position to strike and still finished off okay after that
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Race 5 - C1, 1680m, mile rate 2.02.2, lead time 5.2 (quicker than average), first half 64.7, last half 57.7
Both favs did things wrong which changed the complexion of the race big time, best drive won the race
Touchwood Bucksta (1st), was a super run at previous start but I couldn't see him figuring from barrier 8 over the mile trip but the drive was superb saving a ton of ground. Keep in mind they finished off in 28.1 so still plenty of merit in the win
Barooga Billy (2nd), very disappointing, should have been a certainty once he led and the other favourite galloped but he drifted off the fence and threw it away. Continues to be a very frustrating horse
Boozy Rouge (3rd), probably the best run in the race actually coming wide in a quick last half to finish close up. Is very close to another win
Topotheclouds (4th), never runs a bad race this bloke and will crack it for another win soon
Flying Jasper (5th), every possible, had race presented to him and couldn't take advantage
Livin In Heaven (6th), another cheeky run at odds, didn't help when fav ran off track at the 400 but boxed on okay
Saab Quality (8th), broke after the start which put paid to his chances
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Race 6 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.00.7, lead time 42.1 (very fast), first half 60.6, last half 62.3
Strangely run race where they got slower the longer it went and as always the form in these races is very suspect
Resurgence (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed the gun trip after that, the slogging finish also suited him down to the ground as whacks away all day
Cancellara (2nd), another better run from him, still not at his best but not far off
As You Wish (3rd), enjoyed the solid tempo and kept coming
Harbhajan (4th), total forgive run as took charge of the driver. Was first start back in the draw and got used early from barrier 1 which they had to try and do but is obviously far better suited driven cold
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Race 7 - C4-C6, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.5, lead time 42.8 (very fast), first half 64.5, last half 58.8
Another insanely quick lead time which narrowed the chances early but first 3 over the line all went very well
Topup (1st), enjoyed a gun trip but still put the race away very quickly when asked to sprint, final quarter in 28.2 and he came from off the speed
King Albert (2nd), continues to run good races at big odds. His turn must come soon
The Musics Over (3rd), encouraging return to racing and showed that the fall at previous start hasn't impacted him at all
Wingsofaneagle (6th), showed enormous gatespeed to even keep out King Of Bling initially and I thought he boxed on okay after that. May be one to follow at odds
King Of Bling (8th), spent all his pennies early on but still entitled to fight on a bit better at the end of the race
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Race 8 - 3YO, 2200m, mile rate 2.06.2, lead time 47.4 (very slow), first half 65.8, last half 59.3
Thought the first four all went about as well as each other and it purely came down to the tempo of the race as to who won as it was extremely slow early and therefore leader dominated
Iden Noshot (1st), well driven and once he got the run was always going to be mighty hard to hold off with his speed
Brezhnev Leis (2nd), another honest run, just lacks a bit of speed currently but never gives up
Odins Dragon Rider (3rd), improved run and a win isn't far away
Bettor Draw (4th), early sectionals didn't give him much hope but should have been put into the race much earlier
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Sunday Tips
Pretty average meeting this which seems to happen this time of year Australia wide. It seems really silly to me as lots of people are missing a great opportunity to win races. Take the horses who desperately tried to win their 2yo maiden prior to the end of the season, most of them failed and then went straight for a spell to coincide with their 2yo season finishing. What most overlook is that there are some of the weakest 3yo races going at the moment and there for the taking yet you can bet your bottom dollar that some of those 2yo horses who were trying to win their maiden this year will be trying at the end of the season to win their 3yo maiden when a lot could get it out of the way now just by being kept in work another month or so. As I also said, this definitely isn't isolated to Tasmania either
Launceston
R1#4 Cindys Babe
R2#8 Blacktie Affair
R3#2 Biggernbettermax
R4#3 Waterloo Bay
R5#1 Saab Quality
R6#1 Harbhajan
R7#6 King Of Bling
R8#6 Bettor Draw
Best Bet
R7#6 King Of Bling
Best Value
R1#4 Cindys Babe
$100 Quaddie
3,5,6,7
1,4
1
6
$40
3,6
1,4
1
field
$30
3,6
1,4
field
6
$30
Launceston
R1#4 Cindys Babe
R2#8 Blacktie Affair
R3#2 Biggernbettermax
R4#3 Waterloo Bay
R5#1 Saab Quality
R6#1 Harbhajan
R7#6 King Of Bling
R8#6 Bettor Draw
Best Bet
R7#6 King Of Bling
Best Value
R1#4 Cindys Babe
$100 Quaddie
3,5,6,7
1,4
1
6
$40
3,6
1,4
1
field
$30
3,6
1,4
field
6
$30
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Sunday Launceston - odds and ratings
Race 1
1 TOP PREMIER 4.5
2 MISTER GUNADOO 6
3 ARK RAID 4.5
4 CINDYS BABE 4
5 MIGHTY MYF 51
6 OUR LAST KNIGHT 51
7 TIME TO PRAY 51
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM 17
10 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 9
Found this a hard race to start the night but ultimately settled on #4 Cindys Babe who has been knocking on the door for a while, she should press forward and find the death and won't shirk the task. Lacks really high speed but is a trier and looks a safe EW gamble. #3 Ark Raid has been chasing home some decent 3yo horses lately and is the obvious danger and #1 Top Premier has run some terrific races this time in and from this draw has an undeniable chance. Found it very difficult to split that trio actually as evidenced by my market but one of them should win on exposed form. There is a query on #2 Mister Gunadoo though who had pretty average form prior to a spell but is resuming with decent trial form and he has gatespeed so I have kept him safe also. Outside of them, #11 Rock The Pocket hasn't lived up to early promise and will find it hard from this draw over the mile trip but last run wasn't too bad, #9 Rosarium is a half sister to champion mare Shez Ryleymak but has only been fair at the trials and #10 Mistover Fizz has also disappointed of late but may run into a place from this trailing draw
Ratings 4/1,3/2/11/9,10
Race 2
1 BREATHING FIRE 6
2 MOIRA KITE 51
3 MONICAS NOTCH 34
4 LADY ELEANOR 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 15
6 JULIAS SONG NZ scr
7 TOUCHA REVENGE scr
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SANREOS 4.5
Looks a very suitable race for #8 Blacktie Affair to continue on her winning way, she has been a revelation since arriving in Tassie winning all 3 starts easily and whilst I am loathe to take short odds a sit/sprint horse she just looks to have too much speed for the rest. #9 Sanreos looms as the danger, she has been chasing Blacktie Affair home of late but been making mistakes and if she puts it together might cause a boilover. #1 Breathing Fire resumes, draws well and has gatespeed so must be included as must #5 Bajardo River who was okay last time as well. Pretty thin race actually
Ratings 8/9/1/5/field
Race 3
1 LOOK LOOK 13
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.8
3 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 3.5
4 EL JAYS MODEENA 17
5 INTHENICKOFTIME 34
6 ARTIFICE 6
7 LOADED BOMBER 34
#2 Biggernbettermax has always excelled when drawn to lead and should adopt that role here, he has disappointed a couple of times from back in the field but looks certain to find his favourite role here so looks a decent bet. #3 Brian Buster Brown is very hard to assess though, he didn't do much early on then in his 2 starts prior to a spell he won like a very good horse and has trialled well for his resumption to racing so is a huge watch. #6 Artifice will find this tougher than past few against her own age and sex but is a good sit/sprint mare and if the boys overdo it up front she may be the beneficiary. #1 Look Look was well driven to trail the fav and place last time and looks likely to get the same run again so is a legitimate place prospect. #4 El Jays Modeena always runs on in her races and with the small field is also in the mix for exotics
Ratings 2/3/6/1/4
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) 26
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 11
3 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 2.4
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 17
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 8
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5
7 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) 6
The Claimers start the Quaddie and looks to be a thin race. Have opted for #3 Waterloo Bay as top pick due mainly to his good stand start manners and if he pinged to the front here would be very hard to run down, He led up in FFA class in a stand last time and gave a bit of cheek before weakening late but the mile rate was 2.01.9 for a 2600m stand so it was way too hot for him and much better suited here. #6 Bonnie Wee Laddie is first up for Rohan Hillier and also has a good record in this class and the small field really helps his cause with his sit/sprint style. #7 Albert Jones is also well placed at this level but has a 20m handicap to overcome which makes it difficult for him but the small field will also assist him. #5 The Apprentice has improved at every Tassie run and wouldn't be a total surprise to see him bob up. #2 The Cherokee Chief has run a couple of cheeky races at times and if he got a soft lead may surprise
Ratings 3/6/7/5/2/4/1
Race 5
1 SAAB QUALITY 2.2
2 FLYING JASPER 26
3 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 17
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.8
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 BOOZY ROUGE 8
7 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 26
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 26
Looks a 2 horse race here with #1 Saab Quality being my top tip purely on barrier draw. If you look at the last run where the favourites went round in the same race, Barooga Billy broke at the bell and went back to last and still beat Saab Quality home so it may seem odd that I have Saab Quality on top. The reason is simple, he grows a leg when in front and just punches out even sectionals and is therefore mighty hard to run down. #4 Barooga Billy oozes talent though and whilst he gets it wrong at times is a very good horse when on song. One of that duo should win but I do respect #6 Boozy Rouge who was a tragedy beaten in Hobart last week in an easier race but he will find the line well. Both #3 Livin In Heaven and #5 Topotheclouds are racing okay without much luck and always place hopes and the rest also are distinct place possibilities as well given the right run. It just comes down to tempo and provided Saab Quality gets a softish lead it should be a 2 horse race (just hope Topotheclouds or Merlin Bromac don't gas him early though)
Ratings 1/4/6/3,5/2,7,8
Race 6
1 HARBHAJAN 1.6
2 BORNFIRST 13
3 EARL HICKEY 11
4 AS YOU WISH 11
5 CANCELLARA 11
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 17
7 RESURGENCE 17
8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 8
Don't know what to make of this race as most of the field are out of form or resuming which leaves #1 Harbhajan as a pronounced favourite but I do have a few concerns despite the cramped odds. He has been ODM in past 3 wins since arriving in Tassie so his gatespeed is a bit of an unknown factor and he has beaten some quite average fields but tht being said, he meets another average lot here. #8 Glory Is Illusive is 2nd pick but not much confidence in him from this draw either but only needs some luck to figure. #5 Cancellara was flying this time a year ago but has been quite disappointing at past few, he did pull pretty hard in a race where they staggered home in 32 last week so if he settles better might surprise. As I said previously, the rest are hard to assess, #2 Bornfirst seems to save its best for Devonport but does have some gatespeed which might be a concern for the fav, #3 Earl Hickey resumes and also has a touch of gatespeed, #4 As You Wish is an in and out type who needs things run to suit but has some ability, #6 An Eye For An Eye is another disappointing pacer who actually went up and contested the NSW Derby a while ago but form has slipped since then obviously but is back with his original trainer so might improve and #7 Resurgence is a big one pacer who resumes from a tough draw
Ratins 1/8/5/4/field
Race 7
1 MI MADEMOISELLE 13
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 KING ALBERT 9
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 21
5 WINGSOFANEAGLE 13
6 KING OF BLING 2.5
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 5
8 TOPUP 11
Pretty keen on #6 King Of Bling to lead and win here, has dazzling gatespeed and has recently led from barriers 7 and 8 so the draw isn't a huge concern and there doesn't look to be a legitimate death seat horse in the race to put any pressure on him so I envisage a soft run and should be getting home of that occurs. #7 The Musics Over resumes from a short let up after falling here last time when was going to be right in the finish but from this draw will be spotting King Of Bling a big start but is definitely the main danger with any luck in the run. #2 Pennys Dragon is an opportunist type who is always a chance if things fall her way, #3 King Albert hasn't had much luck in similar fields of late and draws okay here, #1 Mi Mademoiselle has the speed to retain the back of the fav so becomes a must for exotics if that occurs and #8 Topup isn't going as well as he was a month ago but is right up to this at his best. #5 Wingsofaneagle disappointed last campaign but resumes here and also has plenty of ability when right so monitor any confident betting moves with him. Even #4 November Twenty won at huge odds 2 starts back so can run into the minor money somewhere
Ratings 6/7/1,2,3/5,8/4
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ scr
2 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 13
3 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 26
4 IDEN NOSHOT 3.5
5 BREZHNEV LEIS 2.8
6 BETTOR DRAW 2.5
Good quality race this with 3 distinct chances and hard to sort out. #6 Bettor Draw had superior form during their 2yo campaigns but the other 3 chances really came on late in the season. Have still got #6 Bettor Draw on top as reckon he might even find the front as not a ton of speed under him and if he did lead would definitely be the one to beat. #s 4,5 ran the quinella here a fortnight ago and cleared out from the rest and that formline was enhanced with the 3rd placegetter in that race Hamish Sanz winning well in Hobart last week. #5 Brezhnev Leis won that race and looks an improving type and will probably go forward at some stage in the run, #4 Iden Noshot went a lot better than it appeared in that race coming wide and making ground in a 58.2 last half. #2 Odins Dragon Rider showed good speed last start and battled on fairly so might sneak a place with a cheap pegs run
Ratings 6/4,5/2
1 TOP PREMIER 4.5
2 MISTER GUNADOO 6
3 ARK RAID 4.5
4 CINDYS BABE 4
5 MIGHTY MYF 51
6 OUR LAST KNIGHT 51
7 TIME TO PRAY 51
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROSARIUM 17
10 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 9
Found this a hard race to start the night but ultimately settled on #4 Cindys Babe who has been knocking on the door for a while, she should press forward and find the death and won't shirk the task. Lacks really high speed but is a trier and looks a safe EW gamble. #3 Ark Raid has been chasing home some decent 3yo horses lately and is the obvious danger and #1 Top Premier has run some terrific races this time in and from this draw has an undeniable chance. Found it very difficult to split that trio actually as evidenced by my market but one of them should win on exposed form. There is a query on #2 Mister Gunadoo though who had pretty average form prior to a spell but is resuming with decent trial form and he has gatespeed so I have kept him safe also. Outside of them, #11 Rock The Pocket hasn't lived up to early promise and will find it hard from this draw over the mile trip but last run wasn't too bad, #9 Rosarium is a half sister to champion mare Shez Ryleymak but has only been fair at the trials and #10 Mistover Fizz has also disappointed of late but may run into a place from this trailing draw
Ratings 4/1,3/2/11/9,10
Race 2
1 BREATHING FIRE 6
2 MOIRA KITE 51
3 MONICAS NOTCH 34
4 LADY ELEANOR 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 15
6 JULIAS SONG NZ scr
7 TOUCHA REVENGE scr
8 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 1.6
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SANREOS 4.5
Looks a very suitable race for #8 Blacktie Affair to continue on her winning way, she has been a revelation since arriving in Tassie winning all 3 starts easily and whilst I am loathe to take short odds a sit/sprint horse she just looks to have too much speed for the rest. #9 Sanreos looms as the danger, she has been chasing Blacktie Affair home of late but been making mistakes and if she puts it together might cause a boilover. #1 Breathing Fire resumes, draws well and has gatespeed so must be included as must #5 Bajardo River who was okay last time as well. Pretty thin race actually
Ratings 8/9/1/5/field
Race 3
1 LOOK LOOK 13
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.8
3 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 3.5
4 EL JAYS MODEENA 17
5 INTHENICKOFTIME 34
6 ARTIFICE 6
7 LOADED BOMBER 34
#2 Biggernbettermax has always excelled when drawn to lead and should adopt that role here, he has disappointed a couple of times from back in the field but looks certain to find his favourite role here so looks a decent bet. #3 Brian Buster Brown is very hard to assess though, he didn't do much early on then in his 2 starts prior to a spell he won like a very good horse and has trialled well for his resumption to racing so is a huge watch. #6 Artifice will find this tougher than past few against her own age and sex but is a good sit/sprint mare and if the boys overdo it up front she may be the beneficiary. #1 Look Look was well driven to trail the fav and place last time and looks likely to get the same run again so is a legitimate place prospect. #4 El Jays Modeena always runs on in her races and with the small field is also in the mix for exotics
Ratings 2/3/6/1/4
Race 4
1 NIBEBO ($5,000) 26
2 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 11
3 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 2.4
4 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 17
5 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 8
6 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5
7 ALBERT JONES ($7,000) 6
The Claimers start the Quaddie and looks to be a thin race. Have opted for #3 Waterloo Bay as top pick due mainly to his good stand start manners and if he pinged to the front here would be very hard to run down, He led up in FFA class in a stand last time and gave a bit of cheek before weakening late but the mile rate was 2.01.9 for a 2600m stand so it was way too hot for him and much better suited here. #6 Bonnie Wee Laddie is first up for Rohan Hillier and also has a good record in this class and the small field really helps his cause with his sit/sprint style. #7 Albert Jones is also well placed at this level but has a 20m handicap to overcome which makes it difficult for him but the small field will also assist him. #5 The Apprentice has improved at every Tassie run and wouldn't be a total surprise to see him bob up. #2 The Cherokee Chief has run a couple of cheeky races at times and if he got a soft lead may surprise
Ratings 3/6/7/5/2/4/1
Race 5
1 SAAB QUALITY 2.2
2 FLYING JASPER 26
3 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 17
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.8
5 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
6 BOOZY ROUGE 8
7 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 26
8 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 26
Looks a 2 horse race here with #1 Saab Quality being my top tip purely on barrier draw. If you look at the last run where the favourites went round in the same race, Barooga Billy broke at the bell and went back to last and still beat Saab Quality home so it may seem odd that I have Saab Quality on top. The reason is simple, he grows a leg when in front and just punches out even sectionals and is therefore mighty hard to run down. #4 Barooga Billy oozes talent though and whilst he gets it wrong at times is a very good horse when on song. One of that duo should win but I do respect #6 Boozy Rouge who was a tragedy beaten in Hobart last week in an easier race but he will find the line well. Both #3 Livin In Heaven and #5 Topotheclouds are racing okay without much luck and always place hopes and the rest also are distinct place possibilities as well given the right run. It just comes down to tempo and provided Saab Quality gets a softish lead it should be a 2 horse race (just hope Topotheclouds or Merlin Bromac don't gas him early though)
Ratings 1/4/6/3,5/2,7,8
Race 6
1 HARBHAJAN 1.6
2 BORNFIRST 13
3 EARL HICKEY 11
4 AS YOU WISH 11
5 CANCELLARA 11
6 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 17
7 RESURGENCE 17
8 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 8
Don't know what to make of this race as most of the field are out of form or resuming which leaves #1 Harbhajan as a pronounced favourite but I do have a few concerns despite the cramped odds. He has been ODM in past 3 wins since arriving in Tassie so his gatespeed is a bit of an unknown factor and he has beaten some quite average fields but tht being said, he meets another average lot here. #8 Glory Is Illusive is 2nd pick but not much confidence in him from this draw either but only needs some luck to figure. #5 Cancellara was flying this time a year ago but has been quite disappointing at past few, he did pull pretty hard in a race where they staggered home in 32 last week so if he settles better might surprise. As I said previously, the rest are hard to assess, #2 Bornfirst seems to save its best for Devonport but does have some gatespeed which might be a concern for the fav, #3 Earl Hickey resumes and also has a touch of gatespeed, #4 As You Wish is an in and out type who needs things run to suit but has some ability, #6 An Eye For An Eye is another disappointing pacer who actually went up and contested the NSW Derby a while ago but form has slipped since then obviously but is back with his original trainer so might improve and #7 Resurgence is a big one pacer who resumes from a tough draw
Ratins 1/8/5/4/field
Race 7
1 MI MADEMOISELLE 13
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 KING ALBERT 9
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 21
5 WINGSOFANEAGLE 13
6 KING OF BLING 2.5
7 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 5
8 TOPUP 11
Pretty keen on #6 King Of Bling to lead and win here, has dazzling gatespeed and has recently led from barriers 7 and 8 so the draw isn't a huge concern and there doesn't look to be a legitimate death seat horse in the race to put any pressure on him so I envisage a soft run and should be getting home of that occurs. #7 The Musics Over resumes from a short let up after falling here last time when was going to be right in the finish but from this draw will be spotting King Of Bling a big start but is definitely the main danger with any luck in the run. #2 Pennys Dragon is an opportunist type who is always a chance if things fall her way, #3 King Albert hasn't had much luck in similar fields of late and draws okay here, #1 Mi Mademoiselle has the speed to retain the back of the fav so becomes a must for exotics if that occurs and #8 Topup isn't going as well as he was a month ago but is right up to this at his best. #5 Wingsofaneagle disappointed last campaign but resumes here and also has plenty of ability when right so monitor any confident betting moves with him. Even #4 November Twenty won at huge odds 2 starts back so can run into the minor money somewhere
Ratings 6/7/1,2,3/5,8/4
Race 8
1 HAMISH SANZ scr
2 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 13
3 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 26
4 IDEN NOSHOT 3.5
5 BREZHNEV LEIS 2.8
6 BETTOR DRAW 2.5
Good quality race this with 3 distinct chances and hard to sort out. #6 Bettor Draw had superior form during their 2yo campaigns but the other 3 chances really came on late in the season. Have still got #6 Bettor Draw on top as reckon he might even find the front as not a ton of speed under him and if he did lead would definitely be the one to beat. #s 4,5 ran the quinella here a fortnight ago and cleared out from the rest and that formline was enhanced with the 3rd placegetter in that race Hamish Sanz winning well in Hobart last week. #5 Brezhnev Leis won that race and looks an improving type and will probably go forward at some stage in the run, #4 Iden Noshot went a lot better than it appeared in that race coming wide and making ground in a 58.2 last half. #2 Odins Dragon Rider showed good speed last start and battled on fairly so might sneak a place with a cheap pegs run
Ratings 6/4,5/2
Monday, August 30, 2010
Meeting Summary, Hobart August 29
No standout performances apart from some very interesting drives which is the polite way of saying it I think!!
Blackbookers from meeting
Chanceabet
Crash Cart
Sunrise Lady
Ulos
Lola Bromac
Run of The Night
Harley Fella, was 3 wide the trip and still won. The sectional times flattered him a tad as didn't go quickly and make him work but still a top effort
Drive of the Night
Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), didn't get sucked into following bolters out 3 wide who would have taken him nowhere and saved a ton of ground going through the middle which might have been the difference between winning and losing in the end
Also thought Natalee Emery's drive on Hamish Sanz was copybook (I might be a tad biased though as had a decent bet on him lol). It might not have looked pretty but she took off at exactly the right time and I couldn't have done it better sitting at home with a remote control but Todd's drive on Blacktie Affair won him the race so he gets the nod
Slaughter of the Night
Paul Williams (Iden Justasmyrk), funny to call something a slaughter when the horse wins by 6 metres but he got himself in a world of trouble due to a couple of poor decisions in the run and was very lucky to get out when he did. Classic case of a drivers mindset thinking he is beatifully placed in the "one/one" but he was behind the bolter of the field who was neither going to pressure the leader nor take him into the race so simply had to pull out when the 3 wide line came. Should have actually drove him aggressively and kept the death to be honest and would have won by 25 metres I reckon
Keith Toulmin on Thabela Brioso came a very close 2nd in this award
Odd Spot
Lead time in race 8 was posted as 32.3!!! If correct its the equivalent of running a 26.5 quarter and with due respect to the horses involved in the race, none of them would go that quickly downhill on rollerskates so is an obvious error in my eyes
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Race 1 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 34.1 (very fast), first half 62.5, last half 61.6
First 4 over the line cleared out from the rest
Daytime Jerry (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed a good trip after that and won well
Ark Raid (2nd), funny run, seemed to race in patches but certainly has ability
King Of Jewels (3rd), very fast lead time probably told over the last 200 but still boxed on okay
Scarlett Blaze (4th), much improved run and the fact he beat the rest clearly is a good pointer going forward
Arkabe Jewel (6th), not a bad effort after an early error so best of the rest
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Race 2 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 35.1 (quicker than average), first half 62.9, last half 59.6
The 2 best horses ran the quinella and first 5 over the line clearly better than the rest
Special Gallenti (1st), good speed to lead and ran even sections and kept going to win. Deserved the win actually after previous 2 runs
Chanceabet (2nd), proved last time was no fluke as best run in the race again, did more work than any other runner and refused to lie down. One to follow
Gurrero (3rd), perfectly driven and whilst it wasn't his best form it was still a big improvement
Prettyboytoby (4th), had his chance and is always going to be running on I think
Crash Cart (5th), outside the first 2 over the line he was the best run in the race. Got a win in him soon
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Race 3 - 2YO, 1609m, mile rate 2.02.4, first half 62.9, last half 59.5
Best horse won the race and the first 2 finished well clear of the remainder
Hamish Sanz (1st), very reminiscent of his brother Mitchell Sanz in racing style, copybook drive and unlucky in some regards that the leader rolled off down the back and gave an inside run to 2nd horse or would have dead set bolted in
Sunrise Lady (2nd), every possible hope but a much improved run and beat the rest clearly. One to follow for sure when back against her own sex
Modern Angel (3rd), very good drive also and whilst no match for the first 2 did hold the rest easily
Gun Filly (4th), another good run after working early, has improved heaps at past couple
Flashy Icon (10th), disgraceful performance, first time she has led though and may improve next time with a sit
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Race 4 - C3-C4, 2090m, mile rate 2.05.6, lead time 38.5 (very slow), first half 64.8, last half 59.8
Winner 3 deep the trip so had plenty on them, sectional times make it hard to take much out of the race though
Harley Fella (1st), 3 wide the journey but they walked which helped but still too good
Mickey Delahey (2nd), led, walked and just went under but never going to get an easier run in front than he did here
New York Fella (3rd), looked a shade unlucky but did enjoy a soft run
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Race 5 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.5, lead time 35.4 (bit quicker than average), first half 64.3, last half 59.6
Winner simply too good and the first 5 over the line clearly superior to the rest
Iden Justasmyrk (1st), very good win, was better than it looked. Got shuffled back and would have been 12 metres off leader and 5 wide at the 400 yet rounded them up easily. He must have run 28.5 himself out wide. Might develop into a pretty handy horse this bloke
Cardinal Dreamer (2nd), did a bit of work to lead but soft run after that, still boxed on well and has a win in him when draws to get a soft lead
Safina Leis (3rd), good drive and an improved performace. Definitely proved that she is purely a sit/sprint mare
Innasbrook (4th), barrier killed his chances from the get go but stuck to task well
Peace Chief (5th), didn't enjoy much luck, barrier 1 didn't suit either as better when can grind home in his races. Forgive run
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Race 6 - C5+ Stand, 2579m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 78.8 (average), first half 62.4, last half 57.6
Winner simply in a different class, both placegetters went okay too
Cosmic Under Fire (1st), simply too classy, once he found the front it was a procession and not many horses will lose a race in Tassie running home 57.6
Jumpin Jack Jasper (2nd), another honest run in a stand, never seems to run a bad one. No match for winner though
Ulos (3rd), much improved run, probably the 2nd best run in the race actually as he was off the pegs and 3 wide in the quick last half. Might surprise at next couple
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Race 7 - C1-C2 Mares, 2090m, mile rate 1.59.7, lead time 34.3 (very fast), first half 60.9, last half 60.3
Went way too quickly here, overall mile rate of 1.59 and didn't break 60 the run home just emphasises the fact. First 2 horses cleared right out
Blacktie Affair (1st), very well driven and also relished the hot speed. Was going to win a long way from home. Has to be driven sit/sprint but is flying at present
Jet Black Flyer (2nd), another good drive and unlucky to run into a mre at the top of her game as beat the rest easily
Lola Bromac (3rd), very good run as did a bit of work in the quick early sectionals then kept coming in the straight. One to follow
Sanreos (4th), going very well this mare and another good tough run, might struggle to win until she gets back into the draw but isn't going to be far away in anything
Julias Song (5th), looked disappointing, never travelled the entire race and then just plugged home despite doing no work
Thabela Brioso (8th), suicidal tactics driving a 50/1 pop forward from gate 7 in super quick lead time then a 60 first half death seating. Did well in hindsight to only be beaten 28 metres so run was actually okay
Ashkalini (12th), started odds on and was gassed in front but capitulated very quickly, all her best form has been over mile trips though so was always going to be a query if she led and copped any pressure here. Be interesting to see how she performs next start but would imagine she would be driven with a sit
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Race 8 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 32.3 (is a record if correct but doubt it), first half 64.3, last half 62.2
Went very quickly early also and form is always going to be very suspect when the final quarter of a race is run in 32.2 so make of it what you will
Phantom Jasper (1st), enjoyed a perfect run in transit and kept plugging home
Still Royal (2nd), was the one I wanted to be on in the run and thought he should have won but just got outplugged
Cancellara (3rd), every hope but no match for first 2
Livin In Heaven (5th), fair effort after copping plenty of pressure
Boozy Rouge (6th), no doubt should have won easily as badly held up but remember that despite looking terribly unlucky they did stagger home which probably emphasised things
Safe And Smart (8th), overdid things early
Cullens Count (9th), forget he went around, went forward early then had to go back to last and also had a flat tyre in the run
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Race 9 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.04.9, lead time 36.6 (slower than average), first half 66.1, last half 59.5
Pretty average lot and long odds on pop led and walked which compressed the margins at the end
Denvers Boy (1st), didn't look too impressive, appeared to switch off in the run after getting it very easy. Probably went too slowly in hindsight
Look Look (2nd), good drive to trail the fav and kept coming in the straight
Woodland Chapel (3rd), ran home out wide as usual but might get up in one of these races shortly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blackbookers from meeting
Chanceabet
Crash Cart
Sunrise Lady
Ulos
Lola Bromac
Run of The Night
Harley Fella, was 3 wide the trip and still won. The sectional times flattered him a tad as didn't go quickly and make him work but still a top effort
Drive of the Night
Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), didn't get sucked into following bolters out 3 wide who would have taken him nowhere and saved a ton of ground going through the middle which might have been the difference between winning and losing in the end
Also thought Natalee Emery's drive on Hamish Sanz was copybook (I might be a tad biased though as had a decent bet on him lol). It might not have looked pretty but she took off at exactly the right time and I couldn't have done it better sitting at home with a remote control but Todd's drive on Blacktie Affair won him the race so he gets the nod
Slaughter of the Night
Paul Williams (Iden Justasmyrk), funny to call something a slaughter when the horse wins by 6 metres but he got himself in a world of trouble due to a couple of poor decisions in the run and was very lucky to get out when he did. Classic case of a drivers mindset thinking he is beatifully placed in the "one/one" but he was behind the bolter of the field who was neither going to pressure the leader nor take him into the race so simply had to pull out when the 3 wide line came. Should have actually drove him aggressively and kept the death to be honest and would have won by 25 metres I reckon
Keith Toulmin on Thabela Brioso came a very close 2nd in this award
Odd Spot
Lead time in race 8 was posted as 32.3!!! If correct its the equivalent of running a 26.5 quarter and with due respect to the horses involved in the race, none of them would go that quickly downhill on rollerskates so is an obvious error in my eyes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 34.1 (very fast), first half 62.5, last half 61.6
First 4 over the line cleared out from the rest
Daytime Jerry (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed a good trip after that and won well
Ark Raid (2nd), funny run, seemed to race in patches but certainly has ability
King Of Jewels (3rd), very fast lead time probably told over the last 200 but still boxed on okay
Scarlett Blaze (4th), much improved run and the fact he beat the rest clearly is a good pointer going forward
Arkabe Jewel (6th), not a bad effort after an early error so best of the rest
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Race 2 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 35.1 (quicker than average), first half 62.9, last half 59.6
The 2 best horses ran the quinella and first 5 over the line clearly better than the rest
Special Gallenti (1st), good speed to lead and ran even sections and kept going to win. Deserved the win actually after previous 2 runs
Chanceabet (2nd), proved last time was no fluke as best run in the race again, did more work than any other runner and refused to lie down. One to follow
Gurrero (3rd), perfectly driven and whilst it wasn't his best form it was still a big improvement
Prettyboytoby (4th), had his chance and is always going to be running on I think
Crash Cart (5th), outside the first 2 over the line he was the best run in the race. Got a win in him soon
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Race 3 - 2YO, 1609m, mile rate 2.02.4, first half 62.9, last half 59.5
Best horse won the race and the first 2 finished well clear of the remainder
Hamish Sanz (1st), very reminiscent of his brother Mitchell Sanz in racing style, copybook drive and unlucky in some regards that the leader rolled off down the back and gave an inside run to 2nd horse or would have dead set bolted in
Sunrise Lady (2nd), every possible hope but a much improved run and beat the rest clearly. One to follow for sure when back against her own sex
Modern Angel (3rd), very good drive also and whilst no match for the first 2 did hold the rest easily
Gun Filly (4th), another good run after working early, has improved heaps at past couple
Flashy Icon (10th), disgraceful performance, first time she has led though and may improve next time with a sit
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Race 4 - C3-C4, 2090m, mile rate 2.05.6, lead time 38.5 (very slow), first half 64.8, last half 59.8
Winner 3 deep the trip so had plenty on them, sectional times make it hard to take much out of the race though
Harley Fella (1st), 3 wide the journey but they walked which helped but still too good
Mickey Delahey (2nd), led, walked and just went under but never going to get an easier run in front than he did here
New York Fella (3rd), looked a shade unlucky but did enjoy a soft run
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.5, lead time 35.4 (bit quicker than average), first half 64.3, last half 59.6
Winner simply too good and the first 5 over the line clearly superior to the rest
Iden Justasmyrk (1st), very good win, was better than it looked. Got shuffled back and would have been 12 metres off leader and 5 wide at the 400 yet rounded them up easily. He must have run 28.5 himself out wide. Might develop into a pretty handy horse this bloke
Cardinal Dreamer (2nd), did a bit of work to lead but soft run after that, still boxed on well and has a win in him when draws to get a soft lead
Safina Leis (3rd), good drive and an improved performace. Definitely proved that she is purely a sit/sprint mare
Innasbrook (4th), barrier killed his chances from the get go but stuck to task well
Peace Chief (5th), didn't enjoy much luck, barrier 1 didn't suit either as better when can grind home in his races. Forgive run
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Race 6 - C5+ Stand, 2579m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 78.8 (average), first half 62.4, last half 57.6
Winner simply in a different class, both placegetters went okay too
Cosmic Under Fire (1st), simply too classy, once he found the front it was a procession and not many horses will lose a race in Tassie running home 57.6
Jumpin Jack Jasper (2nd), another honest run in a stand, never seems to run a bad one. No match for winner though
Ulos (3rd), much improved run, probably the 2nd best run in the race actually as he was off the pegs and 3 wide in the quick last half. Might surprise at next couple
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Race 7 - C1-C2 Mares, 2090m, mile rate 1.59.7, lead time 34.3 (very fast), first half 60.9, last half 60.3
Went way too quickly here, overall mile rate of 1.59 and didn't break 60 the run home just emphasises the fact. First 2 horses cleared right out
Blacktie Affair (1st), very well driven and also relished the hot speed. Was going to win a long way from home. Has to be driven sit/sprint but is flying at present
Jet Black Flyer (2nd), another good drive and unlucky to run into a mre at the top of her game as beat the rest easily
Lola Bromac (3rd), very good run as did a bit of work in the quick early sectionals then kept coming in the straight. One to follow
Sanreos (4th), going very well this mare and another good tough run, might struggle to win until she gets back into the draw but isn't going to be far away in anything
Julias Song (5th), looked disappointing, never travelled the entire race and then just plugged home despite doing no work
Thabela Brioso (8th), suicidal tactics driving a 50/1 pop forward from gate 7 in super quick lead time then a 60 first half death seating. Did well in hindsight to only be beaten 28 metres so run was actually okay
Ashkalini (12th), started odds on and was gassed in front but capitulated very quickly, all her best form has been over mile trips though so was always going to be a query if she led and copped any pressure here. Be interesting to see how she performs next start but would imagine she would be driven with a sit
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - C1-C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 32.3 (is a record if correct but doubt it), first half 64.3, last half 62.2
Went very quickly early also and form is always going to be very suspect when the final quarter of a race is run in 32.2 so make of it what you will
Phantom Jasper (1st), enjoyed a perfect run in transit and kept plugging home
Still Royal (2nd), was the one I wanted to be on in the run and thought he should have won but just got outplugged
Cancellara (3rd), every hope but no match for first 2
Livin In Heaven (5th), fair effort after copping plenty of pressure
Boozy Rouge (6th), no doubt should have won easily as badly held up but remember that despite looking terribly unlucky they did stagger home which probably emphasised things
Safe And Smart (8th), overdid things early
Cullens Count (9th), forget he went around, went forward early then had to go back to last and also had a flat tyre in the run
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 9 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.04.9, lead time 36.6 (slower than average), first half 66.1, last half 59.5
Pretty average lot and long odds on pop led and walked which compressed the margins at the end
Denvers Boy (1st), didn't look too impressive, appeared to switch off in the run after getting it very easy. Probably went too slowly in hindsight
Look Look (2nd), good drive to trail the fav and kept coming in the straight
Woodland Chapel (3rd), ran home out wide as usual but might get up in one of these races shortly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Sunday Tips
Hobart all races
R1#1 King Of Jewels
R2#2 Chanceabet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#3 Iden Justasmyrk
R6#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R7#1 Ashkalini
R8#8 Boozy Rouge
R9#7 Denvers Boy
Best Bet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
$100 Quaddie
6,8
2,3
8
1,10,11
$48 gives 400%
6,8
2,3
2,3,4,6
1,10,11
$48 gives 100%
8
3
8
1,8,10,11
$4 gives 100%
R1#1 King Of Jewels
R2#2 Chanceabet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#3 Iden Justasmyrk
R6#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R7#1 Ashkalini
R8#8 Boozy Rouge
R9#7 Denvers Boy
Best Bet
R3#9 Hamish Sanz
$100 Quaddie
6,8
2,3
8
1,10,11
$48 gives 400%
6,8
2,3
2,3,4,6
1,10,11
$48 gives 100%
8
3
8
1,8,10,11
$4 gives 100%
Hobart Preview, Sunday August 29
Hobart, Sunday August 29
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties bar the last race and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 2.8
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND scr
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 26
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and last week made ground when running 2nd to a smart one in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #3 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 15
2 FLASHY ICON 6.5
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 11
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 11
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 26
9 HAMISH SANZ 3
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1) 9
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 9
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS scr
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #10 Smokin Mustard also comes into play now he gets a run as has raced in stronger fields than this and been competitive, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. Bot of a watch on #5 Town Trickster who resumes after average form in first campaign but has trialled okay this time in so monitor betting. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,5?,10,11/1,3,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4.5
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 4.5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/6/3/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1) scr
2 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 21
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 17
7 WILLIE WINALOT 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 21
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 15
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 9
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 7
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO scr
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,3/4,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY scr
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 9
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1) 26
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #11 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad and it was hard to guage much from her last run as wasn't extended. In a nutshell, I have to admit that I am not sure if I have her odds right or not as might be better than them. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out and #12 Doves Patch is also an exotics player now she has obtained a run
1/11/10/8/7,12,13/4
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
2 SAFE AND SMART 4
3 HARLEKEN WIZED scr
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 4.5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 4.5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 11
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but will probably be at backable odds and worth the risk if that is the case. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did but he was an average run last time and reckon he might be poor value. #4 Cullens Count has been very honest at past few and from this draw will give a great sight again. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 8/2,4/1,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON scr
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 13
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 1.4
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
With the scratching of what appeared to be his only danger, #7 Denvers Boy looks thrown in now. He has been very good at past few and should press on from this gate, find the front and bolt in. There is a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/4,5,10/9,11
Pretty good meeting to finish the season with no real shorties bar the last race and looks to be plenty a value in a few of the races. Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to beat his fathers record for winners in a single season and whilst I would love to see him do it as think he deserves it, I reckon he might come up 1 or 2 wins shy as looks to only be driving 3 definite chances
Race 1
1 KING OF JEWELS 2.8
2 LILLANS GIRL (Em 1) 51
3 PRINCESS GANGSTER 13
4 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
5 DAYTIME JERRY 5
6 INCHBYINCH 13
7 ARKABE JEWEL 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ARK RAID 4.5
9 SARAH ROLAND scr
10 LE AMAZON NZ scr
11 TASPACEDOTCOM 26
12 HES NO SAINT 34
13 WHAT A SQUALL 34
Was initially pretty keen on #1 King Of Jewels to lead and win but a tad concerned now that the bolter #2 Lillans Girl has obtained a run as she possesses heaps of gatespeed (also stops just as quickly at the end) and if she crossed him he would be in a ton of trouble. Still think he has a hope of holding up so got him on top courtesy of 2 good runs since coming to Tassie, first up was caught behind a bolter 3 wide who took him backwards at the 500 and last week made ground when running 2nd to a smart one in a 28.8 closing split. If he leads then #8 Ark Raid should be right on his back and she was a good run in the same race last week after suffering some early interference. #5 Daytime Jerry may be the beneficiary if the 2 horse crosses so have shortened him a tad from my opening market, there isn't much between him and the other 2 favs formwise and it was the draw that made me price him a bit higher. Reckon one of the trio will win but #4 Scarlett Blaze had a bit of support last week and run was just fair but must be showing something so respect him, #6 Inchbyinch has been disappointing recently and tends to race best when in front and can't see that happening here. #3 Princess Gangster was a decent run in a shallow race first up but must include in exotics and #7 Arkabe Jewel put in a shocker last week and from this draw I am prepared to risk
Ratings 1/8/5/4/3,6/7/11
Race 2
1 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
2 CHANCEABET 3.5
3 PADDY MY BOY 21
4 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
5 HAVILAH HAWK 26
6 FLYING JASPER 11
7 BROUGHTON 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 IM LE FREAK NZ 13
9 GUERRERO 11
10 PRETTYBOYTOBY 8
11 CRASH CART 13
The battle for early supremacy is the key here with both top fancies loving to race in that role. I have put #2 Chanceabet on top after winning at big odds last time as there was plenty of merit in the win where he beat Special Gallenti in a slugging finish. He worked around to the death when the speed was on and still fought the race out very well, even if he can't lead he is certain to race handy from this draw. #4 Special Gallenti ran a super quick lead time in the same race and just went down and if I was 100% certain he would lead here he would go on top, he also led last week in quick early sectionals and fought the race out very well. Unless they get into a war one of the duo should win. #10 Prettyboytoby is a sit/sprint type who may benefit in a speed war up front but he has had a few chances lately so will need all the favours. Pretty even lot the remainder, #6 Flying Jasper looked pretty plain to me at first Tassie start but did have support and may do better away from he pegs, #7 Broughton was sent out favourite last time and had every possible and didn't go on with it and would need to improve 20 metres to figure from this draw, #8 Im le Freak was pretty good first up leading from gate 7 in a quick lead time and boxing on well so a must include for exotics, #9 Guerrero's form has tapered off a bit lately but would go very close at his best and #11 Crash Cart isn't the most reliable but has done it right at past couple and is another sit/sprint type who may figure if race is run to suit
Ratings 2/4/10/6,8,9,11/7
Race 3
1 SUNRISE LADY 15
2 FLASHY ICON 6.5
3 GUERNICA 26
4 MODERN ANGEL 11
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 11
6 GUN FILLY 17
7 DELTA DEE DEE 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 AWESOME BUDDY 26
9 HAMISH SANZ 3
10 SMOKIN MUSTARD (Em 1) 9
11 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 9
12 NOELSGIRL 26
13 IGNORANCE IS BLISS scr
The last chance for these to break their 2yo maiden status prior to the end of the season and looks a good race for #9 Hamish Sanz who has been very competitive against better than these. His biggest downfall is a lack of high speed but can see him being put into the race early against these and shouldn't be any excuses here. #2 Flashy Icon has improved at all 3 runs and ran a very good race behind a couple of classy fillies last start and from this good draw over the mile trip has to be considered. #4 Modern Angel didn't do a lot at first run from a break but form prior was good enough to go close here, #10 Smokin Mustard also comes into play now he gets a run as has raced in stronger fields than this and been competitive, #11 Dimonds Are Magic ran a bottler behind a good horse last time after leading and is a chance here despite faring worse with the draw. Bot of a watch on #5 Town Trickster who resumes after average form in first campaign but has trialled okay this time in so monitor betting. There are numerous exotics chances actually with nearly all other runners not without some place claims.
Ratings 9/2/4,5?,10,11/1,3,6,8
Race 4
1 MICKEY DELAHEY 15
2 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
3 NEW YORK FELLA 4.5
4 NOVEMBER TWENTY 7
5 DUART CASTLE scr
6 SPRINGVALE FLYER 4.5
7 PAUL ALBERT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HARLEY FELLA 2.2
#8 Harley Fella was very impressive last week after doing a ton of work and clearing out in the straight and this actually looks a tad easier if anything. He should be around them early and whatever beats him will win. #3 New York Fella has returned to form of late and looks the leader here so is a must include, #6 Springvale Flyer is an enigmatic type who will appreciate the small field and if the leaders overdo it up front he will be swooping late. #4 November Twenty won at huge odds last time but would need a perfect run again to beat these. #1 Mickey Delahey is a place hope from the draw
Ratings 8/6/3/4/1
Race 5
1 TARA LASSIE (Em 1) scr
2 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5
4 LOADED BOMBER 51
5 SAFINA LEIS 21
6 CARDINAL DREAMER 17
7 WILLIE WINALOT 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 21
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 13
11 SING AND DANCE 15
12 SPENDIT NZ 51
13 INNASBROOK 9
#3 Iden Justasmyrk looks likely to find his favourite role here as pacemaker and for that reason I have him on top, he loves to free roll and always very hard to beat if he leads. Whilst there is a bit of speed outside him I am confident he will keep those runners out which leaves his main danger as the only fly in the ointment. #2 Peace Chief is the horse I am alluding to and virtually impossible to assess his gatespeed as has been out of the draw for an eternity and was back in the draw last week and looked quite scratchy at the start so from the inside draw I wouldn't imagine he would be bustled too hard early. He has tons of ability though so you simply have to respect him. #13 Innasbrook is going just as well as the other 2 but from 6 out on the 2nd row its a mighty tough job for him to beat them but still have him as 3rd pick. Have to say I found it virtually impossible to split the rest with both #6 Cardinal Dreamer and #7 Willie Winalot having no luck with barriers lately but going okay but have tough draws again, #11 Sing And Dance doesn't win very often and probably better suited against her own sex but can feature with the right run, #10 Ima Blissful Belle has ability and resumes without any exposed trial form so is a watch, #5 Safina Leis will find this harder than past couple but always a place hope, #8 Merlin Bromac draws to get a soft run and #9 Anoptomist was well driven to place last time in a similar field
Ratings 3/2/13/6,7/5,8,9,10,11
Race 6
1 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
2 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 7
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 7
4 RONNIE RAT 13
5 ULOS 17
6 ANGUS MCGREGOR 11
7 JILLIBY RIO scr
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 1.7
#8 Cosmic Under Fire gets in very well given the conditions of this race which is a C5 or better stand with a 20 metre maximum handicap. He is assessed as a C13, M5 so it speaks for itself. Whilst he may have looked a shade disappointing last time he did run 3rd and clearly beat home most of his rivals here. #7 Jilliby Rio has been honest at both runs back and whilst he probably can't beat the fav he is still a good EW chance, #2 Jumpin Jack Jasper is a good stand horse and his manners should ensure he is right amongst it from the start so is a must include. #6 Angus McGregor resumes from a break but on his best form would be a good chance here so monitor betting with him and #3 Ramblin Cullen trialled quite impressively for his return and would be a chance if stepped cleanly and used his 10m advantage. Also cannot totally rule out any runner as by their very nature, stand starts reward horses with good manners and can sometimes even the ability side of things
Ratings 8/2,3/4,6/field
Race 7
1 ASHKALINI 2.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 101
3 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 51
4 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
5 BAJARDO RIVER 67
6 SWEETCHILLIFILLY scr
7 THABELA BRIOSO 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 JET BLACK FLYER 9
9 PARADIGM GIRL 101
10 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 6
11 JULIAS SONG NZ 3.2
12 DOVES PATCH NZ (Em 1) 26
13 SANREOS 26
Good quality race this for the girls and appear to be three standout hopes. #1 Ashkalini clearly draws best of the chances so must go on top as appears certain to get a cheap lead and will take plenty of running down. #11 Julias Song has had 8 Australian starts and never been further back than 2nd and will take it right up to Ashkalini but the draw worries me a tad and it was hard to guage much from her last run as wasn't extended. In a nutshell, I have to admit that I am not sure if I have her odds right or not as might be better than them. #10 Blacktie Affair has bolted in at both Tassie starts so has to be included also. Outside of that trio, #8 Jet Black Flyer looms as the next best as should be trailing the pole and getting a gun trip and did win last week after enjoying the same leaders back run. For exotics, I would also include #13 Sanreos and #7 Thabela Brioso who are both tough mares who might lack the brilliance to win but still a good chance for exotics. #4 Lola Bromac is probably next best as whilst runs have looked plain recently she didn't have the best of luck last time out and #12 Doves Patch is also an exotics player now she has obtained a run
1/11/10/8/7,12,13/4
Race 8
1 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
2 SAFE AND SMART 4
3 HARLEKEN WIZED scr
4 CULLENS COUNT NZ 4.5
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 17
6 LISKENS GIFT 17
7 RISENSHINE 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BOOZY ROUGE 4.5
9 PHANTOM JASPER 17
10 CANCELLARA 17
11 STILL ROYAL 11
Terribly difficult race to sort out and the only thing I am confident about is that #7 cannot win but the rest certainly can. #8 Boozy Rouge is definitely the best horse in the race but will need a ton of luck from the draw but will probably be at backable odds and worth the risk if that is the case. #2 Safe And Smart was pretty plain last start but is a chance of finding the pegs here and would be hard to get past if he did but he was an average run last time and reckon he might be poor value. #4 Cullens Count has been very honest at past few and from this draw will give a great sight again. #1 Livin In Heaven has been racing well without much luck since resuming and from this draw should get his chance. I also grant big chances to both #4 Cullens Count and #11 Still Royal who are also racing very well. As stated previously, its a very hard race
Ratings 8/2,4/1,11/5,6,9,10
Race 9
1 DREAMON DONNY 51
2 AAPENNON scr
3 GIRLS IN PINK 51
4 LOOK LOOK 11
5 CHARLIE GRATTAN 13
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 DENVERS BOY 1.4
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
9 MISTOVER FIZZ 17
10 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
11 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 17
With the scratching of what appeared to be his only danger, #7 Denvers Boy looks thrown in now. He has been very good at past few and should press on from this gate, find the front and bolt in. There is a bit of a watch on #4 Look Look who resumes but certainly has some ability when right but market only guide. Place hopes also go to #5 Charlie Grattan, #9 Mistover Fizz, #10 Woodland Chapel and #11 Rock The Pocket who have all chased home the 2 favs of late and will do the same again here.
Ratings 7/4,5,10/9,11
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