Further to a couple of earlier posts back in late May/early June regarding trainer/drivers, I just have to touch on it again after watching the semi final of the Breeders Crown where the favourite (Courage To Rule) was barbequed early in a lead time 4 seconds (50-60 metres) slower than the other heat by a couple of bolters - you guessed it, they were trainer/drivers and both finished tailed off. Their names are almost irrelevant as it happens every week but in this instance it was Geoff Martin on Bachelor Lombo and Norm Diebert Jr on Mach Wiper.
Its easy to look at my previous post and think I am talking through my pocket as I tipped the favourite but its getting beyond a joke and unless these cowboys are banned from group races at the very least then more and more punters will simply walk away.
The Breeders Crown is the richest race in Australia for 3yo horses and to see a major hope have his chances dashed by incompetence from competitors is hopefully the straw that breaks the camels back and forces HRV to take action but I won't hold my breath.
Here is one of my previous posts where I actually alluded to being very concerned that a race would be stuffed up by having non professional drivers involved and whilst my prediction was right back then, it didn't make me feel very good I can assure you when it happened in the Group 1 Vicbred Final
http://harnessingaliving.blogspot.com/2010/06/dont-say-you-werent-warned.html
Friday, August 13, 2010
Friday Tip
Melton
R7#1 Courage To Rule, reckon he hands up tonight and gets the dream run. If you look through all his Australian runs his only below average runs have been when used early so can see him sprint laning here. Happy with 2.0 or better
R7#1 Courage To Rule, reckon he hands up tonight and gets the dream run. If you look through all his Australian runs his only below average runs have been when used early so can see him sprint laning here. Happy with 2.0 or better
MLB Bets
Just put a couple of MLB bets on for an interest as going to be up for a while. About to start in the next 20 mins
Rockies/Mets - under 7.5 runs @ 1.98
Boston Red Sox to win @ $1.96
Very small bets but find that it keeps me interested and mind active whilst doing some Harness form, used to bet pretty big on MLB actually but even though I won I felt that the time involved didn't warrant the result in the long run
Rockies/Mets - under 7.5 runs @ 1.98
Boston Red Sox to win @ $1.96
Very small bets but find that it keeps me interested and mind active whilst doing some Harness form, used to bet pretty big on MLB actually but even though I won I felt that the time involved didn't warrant the result in the long run
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Small change to the Tasmanian Carnival
The Tasmanian Pacing Club has changed the format of the $100,000 Tasmania Cup which will now be run under mobile conditions with a preferential barrier draw. The club cited betting turnover as the major reason but in my opinion it was a change that needed to be made anyway. Over the past few years, the race has only attracted minimal Grand Circuit class horses with the remainder of the field being comprised of standard Metropolitan class horses and if it was to retain its Group 1 status then that had to change. Plus with the race usually closely following the Victoria Cup it should allow a natural progression for more big guns to now head over Bass Strait and chase further riches and a Group 1 victory.
The full story is available via the TasRacing website:
http://www.tasracing.com.au/harness/news/latest_news/12896283
The meeting set down for the evening of Boxing Day is now a cracker with the Group 1 Tasmania Cup, the $50,000 George Johnson FFA for the mares and the $20,000 Tasmanian Guineas for the 3 year olds all being run on the program. It should ensure the meeting attracts a high percentage of the nations best open class pacers as well as the mares seeking black type in the George Johnson and a few might even bring a good 3yo with them with a $20,000 race on the card. It also follows on perfectly from the Launceston meeting the preceding week which has a $50,000 FFA (also a mobile start), a $20,000 mares race and a $20,000 3yo race on that card. There are also three $20,000 races at Devonport the week prior to the Launceston meeting including another for open class mares so if I had a good class mare then I would definitely be heading to Tassie early.
Might have to book some tickets and head home for a couple of weeks as looks certain to be some great racing.
I still wish they named one of the feature Tasmanian races in honour of the former champ Halwes, the $50,000 City of Launceston FFA run the week prior to the Tasmania Cup would be ideal in my opinion. The name Halwes is synonymous with greatness in Harness Racing right across the country so he deserves a race named in his honour that befits his ability and its something I would love to see. Just call the race "The Halwes" and the name itself will infer quality when participants simply see it in the calendar. Thats another story though and the main point of this post was to congratulate the powers that be in Tasmania for programming a very good fortnight of racing.
The full story is available via the TasRacing website:
http://www.tasracing.com.au/harness/news/latest_news/12896283
The meeting set down for the evening of Boxing Day is now a cracker with the Group 1 Tasmania Cup, the $50,000 George Johnson FFA for the mares and the $20,000 Tasmanian Guineas for the 3 year olds all being run on the program. It should ensure the meeting attracts a high percentage of the nations best open class pacers as well as the mares seeking black type in the George Johnson and a few might even bring a good 3yo with them with a $20,000 race on the card. It also follows on perfectly from the Launceston meeting the preceding week which has a $50,000 FFA (also a mobile start), a $20,000 mares race and a $20,000 3yo race on that card. There are also three $20,000 races at Devonport the week prior to the Launceston meeting including another for open class mares so if I had a good class mare then I would definitely be heading to Tassie early.
Might have to book some tickets and head home for a couple of weeks as looks certain to be some great racing.
I still wish they named one of the feature Tasmanian races in honour of the former champ Halwes, the $50,000 City of Launceston FFA run the week prior to the Tasmania Cup would be ideal in my opinion. The name Halwes is synonymous with greatness in Harness Racing right across the country so he deserves a race named in his honour that befits his ability and its something I would love to see. Just call the race "The Halwes" and the name itself will infer quality when participants simply see it in the calendar. Thats another story though and the main point of this post was to congratulate the powers that be in Tasmania for programming a very good fortnight of racing.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Quastor Centurion - Breeders Crown
Just thought I would give a quick synopsis of this horse if anybody isn't familiar with him.
Unfortunately, I won't be a lot of help to be honest which has more to do with his racing style than ignorance on my part though. He is just a really hard horse to guage as hardly ever looks ultra impressive but is a real racehorse and whilst he never runs scintillating times you get the impression he could find plenty more if he had to. In a nutshell, its a bit of a guessing game as to whether he will or won't.
It isn't a strong lot of 2yo colts in Tassie this year to be honest and he is miles better than them winning 8 of 9 and being a tragedy beaten in the loss after being knocked over at the mile and losing 40 metres, then was 4 wide and 10 metres off them at the 400 and got beaten a metre with a 28.8 last quarter. He was also the only horse in the first 5 over the line who didn't follow the pegs home which added further merit to the run.
Forced to choose, I would doubt he has the tactical speed to beat the likes of Royal Verdict and Excel Stride in his semi, but I am loathe to pot him as he is a pure racehorse and I see plenty of them just keep stepping up to the plate even when the races get tougher whilst the speed horses go missing. He doesn't have blistering gatespeed so doubt he will lead but the one thing I am sure of is he won't be too far away at the end. Think about $8 is his right price so if better than that (and should be given the strength of the race) I will be having a little nibble.
Wouldn't be too concerned with Erin Hollaway driving either as has driven 30 plus winners this year (fair effort considering the amount of races on in Tassie) so she goes okay. Pretty similar to a lot of the female drivers in that a lot of horses get up on the steel and travel for her.
Not giving him a glowing endorsement but would be disappointed if he didn't qualify for the final and I wouldn't be totally surprised either if he did step up to the plate and surprise a few.
Unfortunately, I won't be a lot of help to be honest which has more to do with his racing style than ignorance on my part though. He is just a really hard horse to guage as hardly ever looks ultra impressive but is a real racehorse and whilst he never runs scintillating times you get the impression he could find plenty more if he had to. In a nutshell, its a bit of a guessing game as to whether he will or won't.
It isn't a strong lot of 2yo colts in Tassie this year to be honest and he is miles better than them winning 8 of 9 and being a tragedy beaten in the loss after being knocked over at the mile and losing 40 metres, then was 4 wide and 10 metres off them at the 400 and got beaten a metre with a 28.8 last quarter. He was also the only horse in the first 5 over the line who didn't follow the pegs home which added further merit to the run.
Forced to choose, I would doubt he has the tactical speed to beat the likes of Royal Verdict and Excel Stride in his semi, but I am loathe to pot him as he is a pure racehorse and I see plenty of them just keep stepping up to the plate even when the races get tougher whilst the speed horses go missing. He doesn't have blistering gatespeed so doubt he will lead but the one thing I am sure of is he won't be too far away at the end. Think about $8 is his right price so if better than that (and should be given the strength of the race) I will be having a little nibble.
Wouldn't be too concerned with Erin Hollaway driving either as has driven 30 plus winners this year (fair effort considering the amount of races on in Tassie) so she goes okay. Pretty similar to a lot of the female drivers in that a lot of horses get up on the steel and travel for her.
Not giving him a glowing endorsement but would be disappointed if he didn't qualify for the final and I wouldn't be totally surprised either if he did step up to the plate and surprise a few.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Hobart, Sunday August 15 - Initial Thoughts
Early markets after just looking at fields, will obviously make adjustments once I have a look at the form guide and replays but thought I would pop this up now as first instincts can normally be okay compared to "over-analysing" a race so might leave this as a separate post and start a new one for the full preview. Fields have only been out for 30 minutes actually so is obviously a very quick glimpse but be interested to see how it does
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 4
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 5
3 INNASBROOK 5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4
5 SAAB QUALITY 6
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 101
10 MASTERAMA 101
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 POKER STORM 6
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 2.2
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 4.5
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 21
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 51
7 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 6
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 21
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 4.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1)
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 8
11 SAFE AND SMART 6
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ 17
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 2.5
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 7
3 NEW YORK FELLA 7
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 17
12 CRASH CART 26
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 13
6 DAYTIME JERRY 13
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.8
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 9
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 21
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 15
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 RONNIE RAT 11
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 21
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 17
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 11
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 7
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 7
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 3
11 SING AND DANCE 3.8
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.5
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 17
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 5.5
7 MOIRA KITE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 26
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 4
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 5
3 INNASBROOK 5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4
5 SAAB QUALITY 6
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 101
10 MASTERAMA 101
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 POKER STORM 6
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 2.2
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 4.5
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 21
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 51
7 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 6
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 21
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 4.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1)
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 8
11 SAFE AND SMART 6
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ 17
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 2.5
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 7
3 NEW YORK FELLA 7
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 17
12 CRASH CART 26
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 13
6 DAYTIME JERRY 13
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.8
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 9
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 21
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 15
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 RONNIE RAT 11
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 21
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 17
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 11
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 7
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 7
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 3
11 SING AND DANCE 3.8
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.5
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 17
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 5.5
7 MOIRA KITE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 26
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Monday, August 9, 2010
The Perception of Value when Betting
This is something that took me ages to get my head around as it seems a logical assumption when betting that the better the price, the better the value. Sadly this is not true and is the sucker punch that floors most punters.
It was only on this forum actually that it really came home to roost for me when a regular contributor made comment (cheers Luck) that as punters we almost feel obligated to bet at major metro meetings and especially carnivals like the Melbourne Spring for the gallopers and Inter Dominion for the pacers. The fields have more depth which also leads to more open betting races but is this really value from a betting perspective? I now understand that it isn't.
One of the major reasons I succeed in Tasmania is because you can narrow the winning hopes in nearly every race to around 33% of runners so in a standard field of 11 or 12, you normally have a maximum of 4 winning hopes. Tassie form also has the benefit of horses coming through very similar formlines with only one race per week for each class on average so its quite easy to measure the form of one runner versus another which is a marked contrast to most other states. If we draw on the stats where I tip one horse in every race, I have tipped 52 winners from 103 races with an average winning price of exactly $3 which most people would deem as poor value but surely there has to be a value component added to the winning consistency which most overlook.
A lot of punters point to the spring carnival as the best time to bet due to the perceived value but is it really? I would envisage that it is a lot easier to back a winner at this time of the year where races have a number of stayers resuming who have no hope at the current distance and some runners who can't handle wet ground yet are running for their long term benefit. This narrows down the winning hopes considerably compared to say Derby Day where its every horses grand final and given the right run in transit most could win without totally surprising. Therefore, is there more value in backing one at $4 this week in a race with a maximum 5 chances or backing one on Derby Day at $8 in a field with 14 winning possibilities. I know which odds I would prefer long term.
It sure is "sexier" to say you backed the winner of the main race on the weekend but its a lot better feeling to win consistently and in the case of value when betting, the majority of the time less will actually mean more!
It was only on this forum actually that it really came home to roost for me when a regular contributor made comment (cheers Luck) that as punters we almost feel obligated to bet at major metro meetings and especially carnivals like the Melbourne Spring for the gallopers and Inter Dominion for the pacers. The fields have more depth which also leads to more open betting races but is this really value from a betting perspective? I now understand that it isn't.
One of the major reasons I succeed in Tasmania is because you can narrow the winning hopes in nearly every race to around 33% of runners so in a standard field of 11 or 12, you normally have a maximum of 4 winning hopes. Tassie form also has the benefit of horses coming through very similar formlines with only one race per week for each class on average so its quite easy to measure the form of one runner versus another which is a marked contrast to most other states. If we draw on the stats where I tip one horse in every race, I have tipped 52 winners from 103 races with an average winning price of exactly $3 which most people would deem as poor value but surely there has to be a value component added to the winning consistency which most overlook.
A lot of punters point to the spring carnival as the best time to bet due to the perceived value but is it really? I would envisage that it is a lot easier to back a winner at this time of the year where races have a number of stayers resuming who have no hope at the current distance and some runners who can't handle wet ground yet are running for their long term benefit. This narrows down the winning hopes considerably compared to say Derby Day where its every horses grand final and given the right run in transit most could win without totally surprising. Therefore, is there more value in backing one at $4 this week in a race with a maximum 5 chances or backing one on Derby Day at $8 in a field with 14 winning possibilities. I know which odds I would prefer long term.
It sure is "sexier" to say you backed the winner of the main race on the weekend but its a lot better feeling to win consistently and in the case of value when betting, the majority of the time less will actually mean more!
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