Plan is to get it early and hopefully go out and celebrate as could be a touch of value. No specials amongst them though. Adding a late one for Newcastle though that I am pretty keen on
Newcastle
R4#7 The Ravenite
Ballarat
R1#9 Unsinkable Boxer, looks a good race for him with a ton of gatespeed off the front
Race 2 is also a certain trifecta that won't pay much - 6,7/4,6,7/4,6,7. In my mind its a lock so if it pays $10 then its the same net result as a $2.50 winner
Also threw a lazy $40 on the Ballarat Quaddie for 500%
12
5
1,2,9,11
5,9
Stating the obvious, it means that I think the favs will win races 4,5 if you want to back a couple of shorties
Albion Park
R1#2 Forever After, pretty open race this but was a very good run last time and gets her best draw in ages
Friday, July 16, 2010
Friday Tip
Best Bet
Menangle
R5#3 Ima Rocket Star - currently $2.30 fixed odds and was actually hoping for around $3 so might wait until race time. Reckon it might be some value on the non WA TABS such as UNITAB and NSW so even mid tote with a corp might be okay.
Few others
Melton
R6#7 Our Chain Of Command
R7#7 Torque In Motion, have taken the $3 a place on TAB fixed odds and also be playing the tri around her and the 2 standout favs in 9,10
Menangle
R5#3 Ima Rocket Star - currently $2.30 fixed odds and was actually hoping for around $3 so might wait until race time. Reckon it might be some value on the non WA TABS such as UNITAB and NSW so even mid tote with a corp might be okay.
Few others
Melton
R6#7 Our Chain Of Command
R7#7 Torque In Motion, have taken the $3 a place on TAB fixed odds and also be playing the tri around her and the 2 standout favs in 9,10
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Kudos to Maryborough - other clubs should take note
In one of my original posts, I lamented the lack of carnivals in Harness Racing but all credit must go out to the Maryborough club with what they have achieved with the Redwood Carnival.
Whilst I am not a huge fan of betting on squaregaiters, I do find them enjoyable to watch and Maryborough manage to attract most of the best young trotters going around. HRV also deserve a commendation for programming the Derby at the meeting which really gives the racing some substance. The date of the carnival also sits well with the Breeders Crown and I imagine that is also more than mere coincidence.
The Maryborough club simply identified a niche in the market a few years back and it has evolved into the great carnival we see today. Other clubs should take note as they have made themselves identifiable in the marketplace despite not having anywhere near the infrastructure of numerous surrounding clubs. In fact, the racetrack sits in the middle of nowhere (sincerest apologies to the townfolk of Carisbrook) but instead of taking the approach of most clubs and being worried about the negatives such as lack of accommodation, etc they worked on the "Field Of Dreams" principle that if they built it they would come.
I do not know enough of the specifics regarding the origins to expand further but whilst it is easy to find fault in administrators, credit should also be given when it is due so congratulations to both Maryborough and HRV and here's hoping for some great weather and racing over the weekend.
Whilst I am not a huge fan of betting on squaregaiters, I do find them enjoyable to watch and Maryborough manage to attract most of the best young trotters going around. HRV also deserve a commendation for programming the Derby at the meeting which really gives the racing some substance. The date of the carnival also sits well with the Breeders Crown and I imagine that is also more than mere coincidence.
The Maryborough club simply identified a niche in the market a few years back and it has evolved into the great carnival we see today. Other clubs should take note as they have made themselves identifiable in the marketplace despite not having anywhere near the infrastructure of numerous surrounding clubs. In fact, the racetrack sits in the middle of nowhere (sincerest apologies to the townfolk of Carisbrook) but instead of taking the approach of most clubs and being worried about the negatives such as lack of accommodation, etc they worked on the "Field Of Dreams" principle that if they built it they would come.
I do not know enough of the specifics regarding the origins to expand further but whilst it is easy to find fault in administrators, credit should also be given when it is due so congratulations to both Maryborough and HRV and here's hoping for some great weather and racing over the weekend.
Hobart odds and ratings, Sunday July 18
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) 34
2 HYDEHURST BOY 5
3 MARACAS BAY 7
4 JAMES MACKENZIE 7
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 34
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 26
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 4
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 21
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 34
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $4 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. They look clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 17
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 6
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) 34
2 HYDEHURST BOY 5
3 MARACAS BAY 7
4 JAMES MACKENZIE 7
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 34
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 26
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 4
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 21
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 34
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $4 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. They look clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 17
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 6
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
The Mentality of Sport
Just some food for thought.
Recently heard an interview with Jeffrey Ma (the MIT student about whom the book "Bringing Down The House" was written in regards a college student becoming a blackjack expert and being banned from Las Vegas) and he introduced some interesting theory as to the mindset of sporting players and coaches.
He now works as a consultant to the sporting industry and how the mathematics of gambling can be implemented in the sporting world. He believes there is one great premise that most coaches work upon which is best described by the British Economist John Maynard Keynes which is loosely translated as "a man would rather lose by taking a conservative option instead of attempting to win via unconventional means".
Whilst it is mainly based on American sports, such as in American Football where coaches always take the 40+ yard field goal attempt when on 4th and 1 yardage when the statistics overwhelmingly favour going for it on 4th down. Just why would coaches do this? The only logical answer is the aforementioned Keynesian theory.
Very few coaches simply do not have the job security to make a risky move and not pay a hefty penalty if it goes pear shaped. You can almost hear the supporters baying for the blood of the coach if a match was lost on what was deemed an unconventional decision. Kevin Sheedy is widely lauded for seemingly thinking outside the square but in retrospect was some of his decision making assisted by being very secure in his surroundings and feeling free to take that risk.
Cricket selectors always stick to a formatted team structure but as an example, would it be better if they played 6 bowlers on certain flat tracks on the sub continent to give them greater hope of obtaining the necessary 20 wickets to win a match on pitches where batting collapses are almost non existent. The answer is probably not but we will never really get to know as no selector would be brave enough to go outside what are considered normal boundaries.
Ma also mentioned a recent golf tournament that featured a 280 yard par 4 which was drivable for the entire field yet less than 50% of players attempted to drive the green and at the end of 4 rounds those who pulled out the big stick averaged 3.41 shots for the hole opposed to 3.78 for those who laid up off the tee. When he questioned a few of the players as to why they laid up, the common answer was "I trust my short game enough to put it inside 10 feet if I lay up". Clearly a safety first mentality.
Horse trainers are creatures of habit with an if it ain't broke then don't fix it mentality and it makes me think if many of them would have had the foresight to ride Vo Rogue in the manner he was ridden under instructions by Vic Rail who definitely was of a different ilk to most.
Some of the great moments in Australian sport have come about when coaches have taken a risk. The 1970 Grand Final is widely regarded as changing the face of the game with Carlton being instructed to handball and run by Ron Barassi when nearly 40 points down at half time and getting up to win.
Well, why don't more take the risk? Its a simple answer, you only have to ask Shane Dye who is still hearing about the ride on Vendercross in the Caulfield Cup, Damien Martyn attempting a lavish drive in a Sydney test v South Africa also springs to mind and anybody who follows American sport will recall the outcry by Patriots fans when coach Bill Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 last year and failed when a field goal would have sent the match to overtime and that is just naming a few.
However, the major reason players and coaches don't take the risk is that they want to keep their job which essentially supports the Keynesian theory that "a man would rather lose by taking a conservative option instead of attempting to win via unconventional means".
Can't believe I am quoting Keynes! Thought I had heard the last of him after finishing my Uni degree.
Recently heard an interview with Jeffrey Ma (the MIT student about whom the book "Bringing Down The House" was written in regards a college student becoming a blackjack expert and being banned from Las Vegas) and he introduced some interesting theory as to the mindset of sporting players and coaches.
He now works as a consultant to the sporting industry and how the mathematics of gambling can be implemented in the sporting world. He believes there is one great premise that most coaches work upon which is best described by the British Economist John Maynard Keynes which is loosely translated as "a man would rather lose by taking a conservative option instead of attempting to win via unconventional means".
Whilst it is mainly based on American sports, such as in American Football where coaches always take the 40+ yard field goal attempt when on 4th and 1 yardage when the statistics overwhelmingly favour going for it on 4th down. Just why would coaches do this? The only logical answer is the aforementioned Keynesian theory.
Very few coaches simply do not have the job security to make a risky move and not pay a hefty penalty if it goes pear shaped. You can almost hear the supporters baying for the blood of the coach if a match was lost on what was deemed an unconventional decision. Kevin Sheedy is widely lauded for seemingly thinking outside the square but in retrospect was some of his decision making assisted by being very secure in his surroundings and feeling free to take that risk.
Cricket selectors always stick to a formatted team structure but as an example, would it be better if they played 6 bowlers on certain flat tracks on the sub continent to give them greater hope of obtaining the necessary 20 wickets to win a match on pitches where batting collapses are almost non existent. The answer is probably not but we will never really get to know as no selector would be brave enough to go outside what are considered normal boundaries.
Ma also mentioned a recent golf tournament that featured a 280 yard par 4 which was drivable for the entire field yet less than 50% of players attempted to drive the green and at the end of 4 rounds those who pulled out the big stick averaged 3.41 shots for the hole opposed to 3.78 for those who laid up off the tee. When he questioned a few of the players as to why they laid up, the common answer was "I trust my short game enough to put it inside 10 feet if I lay up". Clearly a safety first mentality.
Horse trainers are creatures of habit with an if it ain't broke then don't fix it mentality and it makes me think if many of them would have had the foresight to ride Vo Rogue in the manner he was ridden under instructions by Vic Rail who definitely was of a different ilk to most.
Some of the great moments in Australian sport have come about when coaches have taken a risk. The 1970 Grand Final is widely regarded as changing the face of the game with Carlton being instructed to handball and run by Ron Barassi when nearly 40 points down at half time and getting up to win.
Well, why don't more take the risk? Its a simple answer, you only have to ask Shane Dye who is still hearing about the ride on Vendercross in the Caulfield Cup, Damien Martyn attempting a lavish drive in a Sydney test v South Africa also springs to mind and anybody who follows American sport will recall the outcry by Patriots fans when coach Bill Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 last year and failed when a field goal would have sent the match to overtime and that is just naming a few.
However, the major reason players and coaches don't take the risk is that they want to keep their job which essentially supports the Keynesian theory that "a man would rather lose by taking a conservative option instead of attempting to win via unconventional means".
Can't believe I am quoting Keynes! Thought I had heard the last of him after finishing my Uni degree.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Wednesday Tips
All races in Hobart
R1#4 Smokin Mustard
R2#10 Harbhajan
R3#2 The Bullionaire
R4#1 Broughton
R5#8 Liskens Gift EW
R6#5 Daytime Jerry
R7#6 Redside Shrek
R8#1 Pennys Dragon
R9#2 Waterloo Bay
Best Bet
R2#10 Harbhajan
Quaddie (races 4,5,6,7)
1,4
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,13
1,2,3,5,6,8,10,12
6
$50 gives 31.25% (just keep an eye out to see if #9 is heavily supported in first leg as happy to leave it out on exposed form but is first up in the state so if under $5 then include it)
R1#4 Smokin Mustard
R2#10 Harbhajan
R3#2 The Bullionaire
R4#1 Broughton
R5#8 Liskens Gift EW
R6#5 Daytime Jerry
R7#6 Redside Shrek
R8#1 Pennys Dragon
R9#2 Waterloo Bay
Best Bet
R2#10 Harbhajan
Quaddie (races 4,5,6,7)
1,4
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,13
1,2,3,5,6,8,10,12
6
$50 gives 31.25% (just keep an eye out to see if #9 is heavily supported in first leg as happy to leave it out on exposed form but is first up in the state so if under $5 then include it)
Hobart odds and ratings, Wednesday July 14
After a disappointing night Sunday, I am hoping to redeem myself a bit here but it is very, very difficult which is usually the case with these lower prizemoney meetings. Tonight is especially hard though with numerous runners resuming from spells and 6 horses having their first run in the state. Do get some very strange odds at these meetings so my tact is usually just to play around with the value and take exotics
Race 1
1 BETTORS EXPRESS 4.5
2 HELLO JASON DENNIS 17
3 MONITA EM 34
4 SMOKIN MUSTARD 2.2
5 DIEBERDEVIL 2.5
6 CROMBIE BAY scr
7 AWESOME BUDDY 17
Small field with limited hopes and not much value. #4 Smokin Mustard resumes from a short letup but has trialled pretty well for his return and on form prior to a break would beat this lot so prepared to punt on him. #5 Diebercharged is also resuming looks the main danger as has never run a bad race. I Thought #1 Bettors Express was pretty average last Sunday but courtesy of the draw and form prior to last run he has to be respected as the other winning chance. The first starters in #2 Hello Jason Dennis and #6 Awesome Buddy have both only trialled fairly but watch for any market moves. #3 Monita Em can safely be ruled out after sitting leaders back and being gone at the bell last time
Ratings 4/5/1/2?6?
Race 2
1 FANTASY ROCKS 4
2 MOIRA KITE 26
3 MASTERAMA 26
4 GUNBOWER JACK 34
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 8
6 ASHINAGA 8
7 OMBRE OPERATEUR 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING FOR A DAY 5.5
9 DREAMON DONNY 34
10 HARBHAJAN 3.5
Hard to assess with my 2 top raters both resuming from spells. #10 Harbhajan has to also overcome the 10 gate over the mile trip but was impressive at the trials and if he found his best Victorian form would beat these so on the basis of that trial he goes on top despite the draw. #1 Fantasy Rocks was disappointing at first few Tassie starts and resumes here without a trial but strikes a weak race, draws the pole over the mile and always went best over sprint trips in Victoria so watch for any betting moves. #8 King For A Day has been racing in stronger races but draws awkwardly here but will be in the finish with any luck. Of the rest, both #5 Red River Gee Gee and #6 Ashinaga will probably press forward early and if one of them found the pegs would come right into play and #7 Ombre Operateur is going better than form would suggest so include in exotics
Ratings 10/1/8/5,6/7
Race 3
1 NEW YORK FELLA 5
2 THE BULLIONAIRE 3.8
3 ONTICK 3.2
4 OUR VILLAGE 21
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 13
6 TWOGRANDAHAND 5
7 TOUCHA REVENGE 13
#3 Ontick has never been one of mine as always promises and rarely delivers and is always in the market and I can see him going around at short odds again here and if that is the case I will be potting him. In my eyes, its a pretty even race with three other main chances in #2 The Bullionaire who won well last time, #6 Twograndahand has form pretty similar to Ontick actually so they should actually be around the same price and #1 New York Fella is also close to a win. Cannot rule out either #5 Prince Planet who has been slaughtered lately or #7 Toucha Revenge who would be right in the market from a better gate. #4 Our Village resmes from a 2 year spell and trial form has just been fair
Ratings 2/1,3,6/5,7
Race 4
1 BROUGHTON 4
2 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7.5
3 MISTOVER FIZZ 7
4 HONEST ART 5
5 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 51
6 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
7 MARACAS BAY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 6
10 RIVER OF SHADOWS 34
11 GIRLS IN PINK 51
12 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
#1 Broughton lacks a bit of early dash but is going very well lately and if he does get crossed will still be the one to beat with any luck. #4 Honest Art has been placed in 9 of 13 starts and against better than these so looks a good EW chance again. The big query being the ex Victorian #9 James Mackenzie who has run good races at times usually from front row draws but should get a good run through here on the back of its stablemate so watch if any confidence in the betting for him. #2 Little Miss Madam is no star but has gatespeed and whacks away, #3 Mistover Fizz is honest and if it gets the right run could surprise. Also spotted #8 Woodland Chapel run a bottler at huge odds last time but had never done anything prior but would be around the mark with a repeat of last run and the only other possible chance is #7 Maracas Bay
Ratings 1,4/9/2,3/8/7
Race 5
1 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 6
2 UNRIVALLED 4.5
3 PHANTOM JASPER 13
4 BERTILS ROCKET 11
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
6 PARADIGM GIRL 13
7 JACK LESLIE 6.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 9
9 BUNJIL BOY 13
10 ASHINAGA (Em 1) scr
11 TOPPA KARALTA 26
12 PADDY MY BOY 41
13 SWEETCHILLYFILLY 17
Hardly know where to start with this lot they are that even, actually they nearly all go around in the same race every week with about 8 metres separating them so it purely comes down to luck in running. I eventually settled on #2 Unrivalled as my top pick purely on the basis that I think he will get the right run. #7 Jack Leslie is probably the best horse in the race but will have to work from the gate which makes it hard for him. #1 Mountain Momma won well last time which was a marked improvement on previous form but from barrier 1 and Gareth on board there is no reason why it can't repeat the win. I have also blackbooked #8 Liskens Gift for when it draws to lead so if silly odds here will have something on despite the horror draw for a staying type
Ratings 2/1,7,8/3,4,5/6,9/13
Race 6
1 ARKABE JEWEL 11
2 DUNDEES KNIFE 8
3 THIRTYSIXTOES 11
4 SEYMOUR GOLD (Em 1) scr
5 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
6 AUNTYLIZ 7
7 THE ACES 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 INNASBROOK 9
9 TZU TZU PETALS 41
10 SAFE AND SMART 7
11 BE GOOD JENNA 17
12 RUBYS LIFE 9
13 MODERN LOBELL 26
Dead set raffle this race and have opted for #5 Daytime Jerry who was badly held up last time and reckon he will push forward and make his own luck here, if I thought he would lead I would be really keen actually. Couple of big queries in the race are #6 Auntyliz who continues to trial well but misbehave at the races but could definitely win this on trial performances and #10 Safe And Smart is first up in the state and was okay in a pretty handy race at Terang last time and gets Gareth so must be respected. #12 Rubys Life is going a lot better than figure form suggests but the draw makes it very hard again whereas the draw brings all of #1 Arkabe Jewel, #2 Dundees Knife and #3 Thirtysixtoes into play. I also have a huge query on #8 Innasbrook who looked a very good horse in the making 12 months ago but his form tapered off badly but resumes here without a trial so monitor betting moves with him very closely
Ratings 5/6,10/8?/1,2,3,12/7,13
Race 7
1 ROSLYN AREFLYING 34
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 13
3 PANS ILLUSION scr
4 RONNIE RAT 11
5 ALPINE ART NZ 21
6 REDSIDE SHREK 1.7
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ULOS 8
9 ROCK AND RUN 34
Looks a good race for #6 Redside Shrek to bounce back to the winners list in. Has run placings at 3 of past 4 starts in final halves of 57.4, 55.9 and 57.6 and can't see anything in this race running those sorts of times so should use his class edge. #7 Majestic Emperor looks the only horse capable of beating him at his first start back in Tassie. He had been disappointing in both Queensland and Victoria but did trial okay here recently so must be kept safe. Of the rest, #8 Ulos is always a place hope at this level and #4 Ronnie Rat goes best in stands but is still a tad underrated in my opinion. I also thought that #2 Little Vance Lot ran a great race at odds last time so might be some value for exotics
Ratings 6/7/2,4,8
Race 8
1 PENNYS DRAGON 2.8
2 MAROSSI 7
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 8
4 NIBEBO 34
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 SWEETEN THE POT 6
#1 Pennys Dragon has been very good at past 2 starts and draws to get every hope here. #5 Flight To Mikinos may be silly odds here after looking disappointing on face value last time but did run a quick lead time and first quarter so I am prepared to overlook the run and if he could get across these early would be a huge chance. #6 Sweeten The Pot has been extremely disappointing of late but would smash these at his best. #2 Marossi is an opportunist type but should get the right run here and #3 Bayfield High ran a cheeky race at odds last time and definitely isn't the worst. #4 Nibebo is outclassed
Ratings 1/5/6/2,3
Race 9
1 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 6
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 1.6
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 8
4 LASER MOUNTAIN ($5,000) scr
5 BOOZY ROUGE ($6,000) 8
6 BYGONE ERA ($6,000) 8
Stand start claimer to end the night and #2 Waterloo Bay looks a standout. Did a power of work last time in a similar field and just left them for dead at the 400 and the 2nd horse that day (Bonnie Wee Laddie) has since come out and bolted in so the formline is tremendous. The rest are almost impossible to split and have opted for #1 My Centurion as the main danger courtesy of the draw, having first start for new stable and getting Gareth to drive so looks the only danger to fav who has beaten the rest of them convincingly of late
Ratings 2/1/3/4/5
Race 1
1 BETTORS EXPRESS 4.5
2 HELLO JASON DENNIS 17
3 MONITA EM 34
4 SMOKIN MUSTARD 2.2
5 DIEBERDEVIL 2.5
6 CROMBIE BAY scr
7 AWESOME BUDDY 17
Small field with limited hopes and not much value. #4 Smokin Mustard resumes from a short letup but has trialled pretty well for his return and on form prior to a break would beat this lot so prepared to punt on him. #5 Diebercharged is also resuming looks the main danger as has never run a bad race. I Thought #1 Bettors Express was pretty average last Sunday but courtesy of the draw and form prior to last run he has to be respected as the other winning chance. The first starters in #2 Hello Jason Dennis and #6 Awesome Buddy have both only trialled fairly but watch for any market moves. #3 Monita Em can safely be ruled out after sitting leaders back and being gone at the bell last time
Ratings 4/5/1/2?6?
Race 2
1 FANTASY ROCKS 4
2 MOIRA KITE 26
3 MASTERAMA 26
4 GUNBOWER JACK 34
5 RED RIVER GEE GEE 8
6 ASHINAGA 8
7 OMBRE OPERATEUR 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING FOR A DAY 5.5
9 DREAMON DONNY 34
10 HARBHAJAN 3.5
Hard to assess with my 2 top raters both resuming from spells. #10 Harbhajan has to also overcome the 10 gate over the mile trip but was impressive at the trials and if he found his best Victorian form would beat these so on the basis of that trial he goes on top despite the draw. #1 Fantasy Rocks was disappointing at first few Tassie starts and resumes here without a trial but strikes a weak race, draws the pole over the mile and always went best over sprint trips in Victoria so watch for any betting moves. #8 King For A Day has been racing in stronger races but draws awkwardly here but will be in the finish with any luck. Of the rest, both #5 Red River Gee Gee and #6 Ashinaga will probably press forward early and if one of them found the pegs would come right into play and #7 Ombre Operateur is going better than form would suggest so include in exotics
Ratings 10/1/8/5,6/7
Race 3
1 NEW YORK FELLA 5
2 THE BULLIONAIRE 3.8
3 ONTICK 3.2
4 OUR VILLAGE 21
5 PRINCE PLANET NZ 13
6 TWOGRANDAHAND 5
7 TOUCHA REVENGE 13
#3 Ontick has never been one of mine as always promises and rarely delivers and is always in the market and I can see him going around at short odds again here and if that is the case I will be potting him. In my eyes, its a pretty even race with three other main chances in #2 The Bullionaire who won well last time, #6 Twograndahand has form pretty similar to Ontick actually so they should actually be around the same price and #1 New York Fella is also close to a win. Cannot rule out either #5 Prince Planet who has been slaughtered lately or #7 Toucha Revenge who would be right in the market from a better gate. #4 Our Village resmes from a 2 year spell and trial form has just been fair
Ratings 2/1,3,6/5,7
Race 4
1 BROUGHTON 4
2 LITTLE MISS MADAM 7.5
3 MISTOVER FIZZ 7
4 HONEST ART 5
5 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 51
6 CHARLIE GRATTAN 34
7 MARACAS BAY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WOODLAND CHAPEL 13
9 JAMES MACKENZIE 6
10 RIVER OF SHADOWS 34
11 GIRLS IN PINK 51
12 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
#1 Broughton lacks a bit of early dash but is going very well lately and if he does get crossed will still be the one to beat with any luck. #4 Honest Art has been placed in 9 of 13 starts and against better than these so looks a good EW chance again. The big query being the ex Victorian #9 James Mackenzie who has run good races at times usually from front row draws but should get a good run through here on the back of its stablemate so watch if any confidence in the betting for him. #2 Little Miss Madam is no star but has gatespeed and whacks away, #3 Mistover Fizz is honest and if it gets the right run could surprise. Also spotted #8 Woodland Chapel run a bottler at huge odds last time but had never done anything prior but would be around the mark with a repeat of last run and the only other possible chance is #7 Maracas Bay
Ratings 1,4/9/2,3/8/7
Race 5
1 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 6
2 UNRIVALLED 4.5
3 PHANTOM JASPER 13
4 BERTILS ROCKET 11
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
6 PARADIGM GIRL 13
7 JACK LESLIE 6.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 9
9 BUNJIL BOY 13
10 ASHINAGA (Em 1) scr
11 TOPPA KARALTA 26
12 PADDY MY BOY 41
13 SWEETCHILLYFILLY 17
Hardly know where to start with this lot they are that even, actually they nearly all go around in the same race every week with about 8 metres separating them so it purely comes down to luck in running. I eventually settled on #2 Unrivalled as my top pick purely on the basis that I think he will get the right run. #7 Jack Leslie is probably the best horse in the race but will have to work from the gate which makes it hard for him. #1 Mountain Momma won well last time which was a marked improvement on previous form but from barrier 1 and Gareth on board there is no reason why it can't repeat the win. I have also blackbooked #8 Liskens Gift for when it draws to lead so if silly odds here will have something on despite the horror draw for a staying type
Ratings 2/1,7,8/3,4,5/6,9/13
Race 6
1 ARKABE JEWEL 11
2 DUNDEES KNIFE 8
3 THIRTYSIXTOES 11
4 SEYMOUR GOLD (Em 1) scr
5 DAYTIME JERRY 4.5
6 AUNTYLIZ 7
7 THE ACES 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 INNASBROOK 9
9 TZU TZU PETALS 41
10 SAFE AND SMART 7
11 BE GOOD JENNA 17
12 RUBYS LIFE 9
13 MODERN LOBELL 26
Dead set raffle this race and have opted for #5 Daytime Jerry who was badly held up last time and reckon he will push forward and make his own luck here, if I thought he would lead I would be really keen actually. Couple of big queries in the race are #6 Auntyliz who continues to trial well but misbehave at the races but could definitely win this on trial performances and #10 Safe And Smart is first up in the state and was okay in a pretty handy race at Terang last time and gets Gareth so must be respected. #12 Rubys Life is going a lot better than figure form suggests but the draw makes it very hard again whereas the draw brings all of #1 Arkabe Jewel, #2 Dundees Knife and #3 Thirtysixtoes into play. I also have a huge query on #8 Innasbrook who looked a very good horse in the making 12 months ago but his form tapered off badly but resumes here without a trial so monitor betting moves with him very closely
Ratings 5/6,10/8?/1,2,3,12/7,13
Race 7
1 ROSLYN AREFLYING 34
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 13
3 PANS ILLUSION scr
4 RONNIE RAT 11
5 ALPINE ART NZ 21
6 REDSIDE SHREK 1.7
7 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ULOS 8
9 ROCK AND RUN 34
Looks a good race for #6 Redside Shrek to bounce back to the winners list in. Has run placings at 3 of past 4 starts in final halves of 57.4, 55.9 and 57.6 and can't see anything in this race running those sorts of times so should use his class edge. #7 Majestic Emperor looks the only horse capable of beating him at his first start back in Tassie. He had been disappointing in both Queensland and Victoria but did trial okay here recently so must be kept safe. Of the rest, #8 Ulos is always a place hope at this level and #4 Ronnie Rat goes best in stands but is still a tad underrated in my opinion. I also thought that #2 Little Vance Lot ran a great race at odds last time so might be some value for exotics
Ratings 6/7/2,4,8
Race 8
1 PENNYS DRAGON 2.8
2 MAROSSI 7
3 BAYFIELD HIGH 8
4 NIBEBO 34
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 SWEETEN THE POT 6
#1 Pennys Dragon has been very good at past 2 starts and draws to get every hope here. #5 Flight To Mikinos may be silly odds here after looking disappointing on face value last time but did run a quick lead time and first quarter so I am prepared to overlook the run and if he could get across these early would be a huge chance. #6 Sweeten The Pot has been extremely disappointing of late but would smash these at his best. #2 Marossi is an opportunist type but should get the right run here and #3 Bayfield High ran a cheeky race at odds last time and definitely isn't the worst. #4 Nibebo is outclassed
Ratings 1/5/6/2,3
Race 9
1 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 6
2 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 1.6
3 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 8
4 LASER MOUNTAIN ($5,000) scr
5 BOOZY ROUGE ($6,000) 8
6 BYGONE ERA ($6,000) 8
Stand start claimer to end the night and #2 Waterloo Bay looks a standout. Did a power of work last time in a similar field and just left them for dead at the 400 and the 2nd horse that day (Bonnie Wee Laddie) has since come out and bolted in so the formline is tremendous. The rest are almost impossible to split and have opted for #1 My Centurion as the main danger courtesy of the draw, having first start for new stable and getting Gareth to drive so looks the only danger to fav who has beaten the rest of them convincingly of late
Ratings 2/1/3/4/5
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