What's this I hear you say? A punter giving a compliment to a TAB, cannot be correct surely!!
I am referring to their Fixed Odds service and more to the point, the amount of meetings they actually cover and the percentage they bet at. The service is excellent, they have fixed markets in place for a lot of obscure meetings and also incorporate a number of Harness and Greyhound meetings over the course of a week.
Sure there are a few drawbacks that the naysayers will point to such as cutting back bet sizes, etc but lets look at the big picture. Most bookmakers at country meetings bet at around 125-130% nowadays yet UNiTAB are generally around the 115% mark come the jump (can get to under 110% for metro meetings) so have a higher risk element and it is common sense that they won't hold enough on an average country gallops race to even out their book so I completely understand them limiting punters wanting to back a single horse to win a stack. I am quite sure if that same punter went to the same country track and bet with an on course bookie that there wouldn't be much hope of him being set for a great deal more despite betting at a far higher percentage and thus being able to offload the majority of the bet on Betfair or surprise, surprise UNiTAB.
As a trots punter, I am happy for any sort of fixed odds service and glad they are at least providing a service of sorts, sure they could put markets up earlier or hold larger amounts but I am not naive enough to believe that this will actually happen with what they currently hold on those races.
We need to compare apples with apples. They are first and foremost a TAB and therefore should be measured against the same ilk and compared to the service offered by TabCorp and The TOTE, they are the length of the Flemington straight ahead. A few even use the argument that TAB Sportsbet never cut back their bet size yet UNiTAB do but do the TAB cover the same range of meetings or bet outside their own state apart from metropolitan meetings where the turnover is huge. Plus their account base is infinitely higher which obviously allows them to square up their books. I still don't know of anybody who gets their bet size reduced at a metropolitan meeting either with UNiTAB.
Instead of concentrating on the couple of negatives, lets look at the numerous positives from this initiative and I am sure that their client base will grow as word of mouth spreads and thus create stronger betting markets which also by extension will lead to them being able to accept larger wagers on the smaller races.
It won't happen often from me but they do deserve a pat on the back in this instance.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Meeting Summary, Hobart October 3
Blackbookers
Cullens Count
Harbhajan
Rock The Pocket
Its A Hoot
Magnificantcamelot
Teejay Fella
Cosmic Under Fire
Run of the Night
Teejay Fella, did it at both ends and apart from the horse who had the cold sit on him all the way nothing else could go with him late. Will definitely win better races this time in
Drive of the Night
Nathan Ford (Brian Buster Brown), there weren't too many contenders this week and Nathan came awfully close to winning last week and his drive in the first just showed how much he has matured. When all others kept taking off before acceptances, he kept his head and not surprisingly won easily.
Driver Votes
N Ford 3
G Rattray 2
Scott Ford 1
Slaughter of the Night
Danny Malone (Ultimate Heir), its hard to believe he drove it worse this week than last week when a nominee for this award. At least the stewards agreed with me this week and gave him time. Driving a $101 pop forward from barrier 7 in a 34.7 lead time is bad enough but to then persist to try and get the death for a further 400 metres is just plain unacceptable. I also struggle to comprehend why he keeps driving the horse forward from bad gates - sure it led once when in against a very slow front line but handed up anyway so why use the horse up.
Plenty of other nominations here:
All the drivers in race 4, letting the leader run a 37.6 lead time then a 70.6 opening half is insane but even that wasn't the worst part of it. To then let the leader run 31.5 down the back is almost incompetent
Ken Austin (Dreamon Donny), another driver to drive a $101 pop as if it was Halwes
Alex Ashwood (Still Royal), got beaten for speed by the fav in run to the first corner then inexplicably came off the pegs to sit outside the favourite and finished tailed off last
Simon Ford (Angus Macgregor), hard to believe they wanted to keep the front on the despised outsider especially when the speed was on. It was a simple decision to anybody watching - hand up and be a great chance of running a place or keep the front and run near last. No need to say what option was taken
Cullens Count
Harbhajan
Rock The Pocket
Its A Hoot
Magnificantcamelot
Teejay Fella
Cosmic Under Fire
Run of the Night
Teejay Fella, did it at both ends and apart from the horse who had the cold sit on him all the way nothing else could go with him late. Will definitely win better races this time in
Drive of the Night
Nathan Ford (Brian Buster Brown), there weren't too many contenders this week and Nathan came awfully close to winning last week and his drive in the first just showed how much he has matured. When all others kept taking off before acceptances, he kept his head and not surprisingly won easily.
Driver Votes
N Ford 3
G Rattray 2
Scott Ford 1
Slaughter of the Night
Danny Malone (Ultimate Heir), its hard to believe he drove it worse this week than last week when a nominee for this award. At least the stewards agreed with me this week and gave him time. Driving a $101 pop forward from barrier 7 in a 34.7 lead time is bad enough but to then persist to try and get the death for a further 400 metres is just plain unacceptable. I also struggle to comprehend why he keeps driving the horse forward from bad gates - sure it led once when in against a very slow front line but handed up anyway so why use the horse up.
Plenty of other nominations here:
All the drivers in race 4, letting the leader run a 37.6 lead time then a 70.6 opening half is insane but even that wasn't the worst part of it. To then let the leader run 31.5 down the back is almost incompetent
Ken Austin (Dreamon Donny), another driver to drive a $101 pop as if it was Halwes
Alex Ashwood (Still Royal), got beaten for speed by the fav in run to the first corner then inexplicably came off the pegs to sit outside the favourite and finished tailed off last
Simon Ford (Angus Macgregor), hard to believe they wanted to keep the front on the despised outsider especially when the speed was on. It was a simple decision to anybody watching - hand up and be a great chance of running a place or keep the front and run near last. No need to say what option was taken
TOTE Tasmania finally gets with the times
Tasmanian based parimutual operator The TOTE has finally delivered on its promise to introduce Flexi Betting this week, only problem is that they have missed the bus by 4-5 years. I shudder to think how many patrons they have lost over that time frame to interstate competitors who have been offering that facility for years. Most punters are simple folk, they don't want multiple betting accounts so if any opened a TabCorp account for the purpose of taking Flexi Quaddies or Trifectas then its logical that this would then become their primary betting account going forward for all bet types.
Complaints were numerous from consumers but the standard response was "it is coming in a couple of months" but those months turned into years. The TOTE have been spoilt since their Betfair alliance gave all Betfair customers access to bet with The TOTE via the Betfair site.
This issue should have been a priority and whilst their bottom line may still look okay currently due to the aforementioned Betfair alliance I really doubt they will get the majority of punters back who jumped ship. Seems an awfully strange time to introduce it as well with the spring carnival in swing and I would rate it a $1.20 chance that the upgrade will cause a major computer glitch at exactly the wrong time. Surely the middle of winter is the time to introduce this facility to ensure all chinks are ironed out prior to the high turnover season.
They have really dropped the ball on a few issues recently and whilst the decision to not fast track Flexi Betting was totally absurd, their decision to change to a sports betting alliance with Centrebet wasn't far behind. Prices are a dead set joke and not even half competitive and it needs to be seriously looked into prior to anything being renewed on that front as they make TAB Sportsbet look like the most generous bookmakers on earth and they are far from competitive on a national level. I know its hard to believe but it really is that bad and if anybody wants proof then have a look at the Betasport prices on The TOTE site and compare that to the Centrebet odds for the same event who I believe actually underwrite the bets.
No wonder all the buyers jumped ship when the proposed recent sale was meant to be a fait accompli.
Whilst I have given The TOTE a bit of a bagging for this issue, I do commend them for a few things they have done recently. Their TasRacing site is excellent, they have recently introduced youtube previews for their gallops meetings and have also embraced the social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter.
Complaints were numerous from consumers but the standard response was "it is coming in a couple of months" but those months turned into years. The TOTE have been spoilt since their Betfair alliance gave all Betfair customers access to bet with The TOTE via the Betfair site.
This issue should have been a priority and whilst their bottom line may still look okay currently due to the aforementioned Betfair alliance I really doubt they will get the majority of punters back who jumped ship. Seems an awfully strange time to introduce it as well with the spring carnival in swing and I would rate it a $1.20 chance that the upgrade will cause a major computer glitch at exactly the wrong time. Surely the middle of winter is the time to introduce this facility to ensure all chinks are ironed out prior to the high turnover season.
They have really dropped the ball on a few issues recently and whilst the decision to not fast track Flexi Betting was totally absurd, their decision to change to a sports betting alliance with Centrebet wasn't far behind. Prices are a dead set joke and not even half competitive and it needs to be seriously looked into prior to anything being renewed on that front as they make TAB Sportsbet look like the most generous bookmakers on earth and they are far from competitive on a national level. I know its hard to believe but it really is that bad and if anybody wants proof then have a look at the Betasport prices on The TOTE site and compare that to the Centrebet odds for the same event who I believe actually underwrite the bets.
No wonder all the buyers jumped ship when the proposed recent sale was meant to be a fait accompli.
Whilst I have given The TOTE a bit of a bagging for this issue, I do commend them for a few things they have done recently. Their TasRacing site is excellent, they have recently introduced youtube previews for their gallops meetings and have also embraced the social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter.
Monday Tips
Maryborough
R2#7 Forward Press (bit risky so half bet)
R3#1 Wya Mya Macray
R4#3 Western Thunder
R2#7 Forward Press (bit risky so half bet)
R3#1 Wya Mya Macray
R4#3 Western Thunder
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Sunday Tips
Hobart - all races
R1#9 Brian Buster Brown
R2#1 Iden Justasmyrk (do like Harbhajan a tad also)
R3#8 Brezhnev Leis
R4#2 Artifice
R5#4 King Of Jewels
R6#1 Harley Fella
R7#1 Still Royal
R8#6 Cosmic Under Fire
Best Bet
Harley Fella
$100 Quaddie
2
1,2,4,8,10
1,5
1,2,3,5,8,9,10
$50 for 71.4%
2,3,6,9
1,2,4,8,10
1,5
1,10
$50 for 62.5%
R1#9 Brian Buster Brown
R2#1 Iden Justasmyrk (do like Harbhajan a tad also)
R3#8 Brezhnev Leis
R4#2 Artifice
R5#4 King Of Jewels
R6#1 Harley Fella
R7#1 Still Royal
R8#6 Cosmic Under Fire
Best Bet
Harley Fella
$100 Quaddie
2
1,2,4,8,10
1,5
1,2,3,5,8,9,10
$50 for 71.4%
2,3,6,9
1,2,4,8,10
1,5
1,10
$50 for 62.5%
Hobart Preview, Sunday October 3
Going with a new format for comments to incorporate all runners, first day of daylight savings in Tassie also so finish about an hour earlier than normal in states without daylight savings
Race 1
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER $6, gone well at both starts for new stable and has the gatespeed to utilise this draw. Definite EW hope
2 CULLENS COUNT NZ $7, very good run last time when sat outside a good one and battled on gamely. Doesn't win too often but will be around the placings somewhere
3 BIDE YOUR TIME $8, very good at both runs since resuming from a long spell and horse he ran 2nd to last time has won again since so formline holds up. Bit of speed under him here but still should get a good enough run to be in the mix
4 BERTILS ROCKET $34, sit/sprint type who will probably struggle from this draw
5 GUERRERO $34, not going as well as he can and find it tough from this gate
6 STEELINGTON NZ $8, ex kiwi first up in state so an obvious market watch. Trial was just fair on face value but has to be kept safe
7 ULTIMATE HEIR $101, got beaten 50 metres last week from same draw in a weaker race. No chance
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 21, draws to get a good trip and was a pretty average drive last time doing a power of work so despite being one paced he will keep coming and might be some value for exotics
9 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN $2.2, enjoyed a perfect trip last week and bolted in. Draw isn't a real issue either as races best with a sit and should trail through into a good position from here. Clear top pick
10 RED RIVER GEE GEE $51, draw makes things extremely tough
11 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $34, actually going a lot better than form suggests but need plenty of luck from barrier
12 OUR KAIZAN NZ $34, got used up mid race at first Tassie start but still didn't find much. Can't have him from this gate
Ratings 9/1/2/3/6?/8
Speed comment: Inside 3 runners all have some gatespeed but pretty confident that Most Happy Jasper will hold up. Both 4,5 will go back, 6 is an obvious query with no exposed form and 7 went forward from this gate last week and was gone at the bell so would have to go back this week
Predicted Leader: Most Happy Jasper
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Race 2
1 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $1.7, been super impressive winning past 3 starts. Has enough gatespeed to hold up here and is a mighty tough horse to get past when he leads. Clearly the one to beat
2 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $6, one dimensional mare who has plenty of ability and can upset the fav with the right trip. If she lobbed leader's back and got out at top of straight then would take plenty of holding out
3 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $8, beaten at $1.20 after leading last time and this is much tougher and he probably won't lead either which is where he races best. My speed map finds it very difficult for him to win as if he death seats he will have both 2,4 with the cold sit on him and if he doesn't pressure the pole he won't beat it. If he doesn't lead (or somehow get leader's back) he looks in big trouble
4 HARBHAJAN $5, another with plenty of ability and was unlucky last time being knocked over when working into race. If he settles early he can definitely win
5 CANCELLARA $34, got all the favours to win last time and will be going back from this gate and might struggle
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA $101, this is just too tough from this gate
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ $101, ditto
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE $34, better run than it looked last time. Might run into the first four with a cheap pegs run
Ratings 1/4/2/3/8/5
Speed comment: Iden Justasmyrk should lead with Biggernbettermax the only real chance of crossing him and doubt that will happen. Both 2 & 4 race best with a sit and can also see 5,6,7 going back. Might be a slow lead time (36 seconds plus) looking at that
Predicted Leader: Iden Justasmyrk
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3
1 DELTA DEE DEE $15, better run last time and might run a cheeky race from this draw
2 SMOKIN MUSTARD $5, last 2 have been very good at big odds and might even find himself in front here and be hard to beat if he does. Still a good hope if he doesn't lead
3 RIKKISU $41, didn't do much last time and really need to improve to figure
4 DUSTY KALENA $9, has plenty of ability but also does a ton wrong. Must respect though in case he decides to put it together
5 JUST DANCE BABY $7, encouraging debut last week and should benefit from the run and be in the mix. Gatespeed is a query as went back at only start
6 ODINS DRAGON RIDER $11, pretty disappointing in the straight last week after a perfect run in transit but previous form was okay and would be some chance if you overlook last run
7 NOELSGIRL $7, last 2 runs have been very good after making mistakes at first few runs. Draw makes it tougher but still a chance
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BREZHNEV LEIS $2.5, tough 3yo who lacks high speed but better suited to this trip than the mile last week and will almost certainly be put into the race early and he will fight it out all the way
Ratings 8/2/7/5/4/6/1
Speed comment: not a lot of exposed form to work off here but #2 Smokin Mustard did lead a couple of times as an early 2yo and this is the first time he has drawn well in ages so you would imagine that gatespeed is still there. #1 Delta Dee Dee showed a tad of speed last run so may even try to use the gate. #6 led and handed up from the pole last week, both 4 and 7 are prone to mistakes so don't tend to get used and #5 went back last week so forced to pick a leader would settle on #2 without much confidence. The only certainty on the speed map is that #8 will be around at some stage
Predicted Leader: Smokin Mustard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4
1 KOIZORA $15, showed a bit of speed and had support at first Tassie run but didn't do much in a very weak race, maybe give one more chance from the draw
2 ARTIFICE $2.2, been disappointing this time in but I like her in this as looks certain to get a soft run. I have made her my lay of the night at past 3 as been taking on the boys but this is her right class
3 THIRTYSIXTOES $7, typical honest run first up in a decent field. Is no star but tries hard and won't be far away
4 STRATEGIC MISS $21, one paced type who lacks the zip to win but wouldn't totally surprise to see her around the mark
5 IMA BLISSFUL BELL $11, been ultra disappointing this time in ( I had a very big bet on her one Monday night late last year when she beat a horse called Gedlee - God only knows how). Have to respect based on what she has done in the past but I want to see something prior to backing her
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $4.5, won a better race than this by 10 metres last week but don't believe all you see as was extremely flattered as was one of only 2-3 horses not to get knocked over. Still was a vast improvement on previous runs so should go close with a repeat performance
7 CYCLONE DYNASTY $21, resumes from a spell and usually needs to lead to do its best so the draw makes things tough
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BREATHING FIRE $21, been woeful at both starts since a spell, has the ability to feature but would need to improve big time
9 BAJARDO RIVER $11, draws to get a decent trail and been racing fairly in stronger races so don't dismiss
Ratings 2/6/3/9/1,5/field
Speed comment: #2 Artifice has been leading in much stronger races so you would think would stroll to the front here and get it easy. Forget the result last time as got hammered in the lead time. Nearly all the front line have some speed actually but the 2 will lead if they want but have a feeling for some reason that they may adjust their tactics this week which just makes it an ultra hard race to sort out
Predicted Leader: Artifice
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5
1 ITS A HOOT $5, lot better run that it appeared first up as worked around when the speed was on, from this draw is right in the mix and might be value
2 LITTLE ELF $9, honest plugger who won't be far away from this draw but would probably need to lead and not sure he will
3 BRO TOWN NZ $15, been pretty average this campaign but does have ability when right so not prepared to dismiss completely as draws best gate this time in
4 KING OF JEWELS $3.2, hasn't had much luck recently, led and got attacked 2 starts back then was the first horse home in the running line last time. Will go close
5 DREAMON DONNY $101, been getting beaten a long way in far easier races. No
6 TIME TO PRAY $51, draw makes it extremely tough but certainly not the worst
7 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $34, resumes and need plenty of luck from the draw
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ANOPTOMIST $5, very unlucky not to win last week and be right in the finish with any luck from the draw
9 GUNBOWER JACK $101, another who is getting beaten a long way in easier races, No
10 MELMAN $6, very average drive last time so ignore the run. Goes best when drawn to lead but will keep coming if any speed on early
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $26, resumes and did win a trial in average time, still hard to have from the draw
Ratings 4/1/8/10/2/3
Speed comment: Hard to assess as the pole is a question mark, 2 has shown average speed and doubt he keeps out 3 or 4. Forced to pick would say 4 leads if they put the handle bars down early
Predicted Leader: King Of Jewels
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6
1 HARLEY FELLA $1.8, this is tougher than recent runs but looks up to it and forget last run when was 5 and 6 wide the last 600 metres. Has had 13 starts over the past 12 months and drawn barriers 8,7,8,11,10,14,9,1,9,10,10,8,9 (2 races were stands) and the time he drew the pole which was 8 runs back, he led and ran 3rd beaten 3 metres behind a couple of "average" ones in Shez Ryleymak and Gamblers Rustler in 1.57.7 and also ran a 28.3 opening quarter. That has convinced me, think he deserves it!!
2 FORTY TWO GRAND $11, opportunist type who draws to get the type of run he loves, a must for exotics
3 SON OF JAM $13, resumes but place looks best in this class but have to respect anything the trainer produces currently so keeping relatively safe
4 RAMBLIN CULLEN $7, led in a FFA stand last time and not totally disgraced and this is obviously easier. Is some chance
5 GRACIE HART $3.2, was flying prior to a short let up, beat Cullens Angel 2 runs back then charged home in a 56.5 half last time. Draw makes it tough but if gets a cart into is the obvious danger
6 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($7,000) $51, form has tapered off badly, ran near last in claimers at past 2 and this obviously much tougher
Ratings 1/5/4/2/3
Speed comment: Been a while since Harley Fella drew to lead but used to possess good gatespeed and no flyers off the front here so would expect him to hold up, can't see much mid race pressure either to be honest which may play against Gracie Hart
Predicted Leader: Harley Fella
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7
1 STILL ROYAL $3.5, led and bolted in last time in an easier race and would probably win again if he led but isn't a guaranteed leader this time. Still must go on top though
2 CURRYNROSES $7, sit/sprint mare who should get a cushy run from this gate, is resuming from a short break but prior to spell was going well enough to feature here
3 MURPHYS ROCKET $6, won both Tasmanian starts so far but much harder assignment here and the battle for the early lead with the pole could well decide his fate
4 MICKEY DELAHEY $21, going okay but just not finishing off his races currently, EW best
5 TEEJAY FELLA $9, had a slight let up but was also going well enough to feature prior to the spell, just needs a tinge of luck from the gate
6 EARL HICKEY $51, ran a good 4th last time but enjoyed a gun trip from the pole and that isn't going to happen from here
7 PENNYS DRAGON $34, form has tapered dramatically and will go back to last from the gate so prefer to watch
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TWOGRANDAHAND $11, honest type who draws to get the run he likes and a must include for exotics
9 MISTER GALLENTI $11, was well supported first up when had every hope but draws to get a decent trail again so EW hope
10 BAYFIELD HIGH $9, won at $70 last start but plenty of merit in the win as came 3 wide in a 58.2 closing half. If he gets the same cart up here there is no reason why he can't win again
11 ROSLYN AREFLYING $34, has ability when right but struggled of late and draw makes it tough
Ratings 1/3/2/10/5/9/8/4
Speed comment: the start is vitally important to the outcome here as both #1 and #3 led to win at their latest run and I am struggling to work out which one will actually lead. Whilst they might have a crack early there are a ton of sit/sprint horses in the race so might be a lack of mid race tempo
Predicted Leader: Still Royal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8
1 TOPUP $9, has a short, sharp sprint and draws to get the type of run he likes. Might be the blowout runner if things fall into place
2 DANCE OF THE DEITY $9, first up and had good form in decent races last time in so watch for any significant market moves
3 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $7, always an EW hope with the right run in transit
4 SKY TOWER $5, resuming from a short let up but a very good and tough horse when right. Also goes very well when Erin drives him (10 wins and 7 seconds from 25 drives) so the main danger to the fav
5 ANGUS MCGREGOR $15, getting back to something like his best but might struggle from this draw
6 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $1.8, looks well graded again in a mobile and is clearly the horse to beat. Can also win in a number of ways which is a bonus if laying the shorts as just as effective coming off the speed
Ratings 6/4/1/3/2/5
Speed comment: not a ton of gatespeed here and Cosmic Under Fire led from 6 in Launceston last week and may well do so again. #1 has gatespeed but hands up, #2 begins fairly, #3 goes best with a sit, #4 has some gatespeed but not brilliant as more dour and #5 used to have plenty but hasn't shown it in ages and was crossed by the 6 last time. I can see pressure in the race though as thats how Sky Tower races so even if the fav leads he might cop a bit mid race
Predicted Leader: Cosmic Under Fire
Race 1
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER $6, gone well at both starts for new stable and has the gatespeed to utilise this draw. Definite EW hope
2 CULLENS COUNT NZ $7, very good run last time when sat outside a good one and battled on gamely. Doesn't win too often but will be around the placings somewhere
3 BIDE YOUR TIME $8, very good at both runs since resuming from a long spell and horse he ran 2nd to last time has won again since so formline holds up. Bit of speed under him here but still should get a good enough run to be in the mix
4 BERTILS ROCKET $34, sit/sprint type who will probably struggle from this draw
5 GUERRERO $34, not going as well as he can and find it tough from this gate
6 STEELINGTON NZ $8, ex kiwi first up in state so an obvious market watch. Trial was just fair on face value but has to be kept safe
7 ULTIMATE HEIR $101, got beaten 50 metres last week from same draw in a weaker race. No chance
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LISKENS GIFT 21, draws to get a good trip and was a pretty average drive last time doing a power of work so despite being one paced he will keep coming and might be some value for exotics
9 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN $2.2, enjoyed a perfect trip last week and bolted in. Draw isn't a real issue either as races best with a sit and should trail through into a good position from here. Clear top pick
10 RED RIVER GEE GEE $51, draw makes things extremely tough
11 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ $34, actually going a lot better than form suggests but need plenty of luck from barrier
12 OUR KAIZAN NZ $34, got used up mid race at first Tassie start but still didn't find much. Can't have him from this gate
Ratings 9/1/2/3/6?/8
Speed comment: Inside 3 runners all have some gatespeed but pretty confident that Most Happy Jasper will hold up. Both 4,5 will go back, 6 is an obvious query with no exposed form and 7 went forward from this gate last week and was gone at the bell so would have to go back this week
Predicted Leader: Most Happy Jasper
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2
1 IDEN JUSTASMYRK $1.7, been super impressive winning past 3 starts. Has enough gatespeed to hold up here and is a mighty tough horse to get past when he leads. Clearly the one to beat
2 BLACKTIE AFFAIR $6, one dimensional mare who has plenty of ability and can upset the fav with the right trip. If she lobbed leader's back and got out at top of straight then would take plenty of holding out
3 BIGGERNBETTERMAX $8, beaten at $1.20 after leading last time and this is much tougher and he probably won't lead either which is where he races best. My speed map finds it very difficult for him to win as if he death seats he will have both 2,4 with the cold sit on him and if he doesn't pressure the pole he won't beat it. If he doesn't lead (or somehow get leader's back) he looks in big trouble
4 HARBHAJAN $5, another with plenty of ability and was unlucky last time being knocked over when working into race. If he settles early he can definitely win
5 CANCELLARA $34, got all the favours to win last time and will be going back from this gate and might struggle
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA $101, this is just too tough from this gate
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ $101, ditto
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE $34, better run than it looked last time. Might run into the first four with a cheap pegs run
Ratings 1/4/2/3/8/5
Speed comment: Iden Justasmyrk should lead with Biggernbettermax the only real chance of crossing him and doubt that will happen. Both 2 & 4 race best with a sit and can also see 5,6,7 going back. Might be a slow lead time (36 seconds plus) looking at that
Predicted Leader: Iden Justasmyrk
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3
1 DELTA DEE DEE $15, better run last time and might run a cheeky race from this draw
2 SMOKIN MUSTARD $5, last 2 have been very good at big odds and might even find himself in front here and be hard to beat if he does. Still a good hope if he doesn't lead
3 RIKKISU $41, didn't do much last time and really need to improve to figure
4 DUSTY KALENA $9, has plenty of ability but also does a ton wrong. Must respect though in case he decides to put it together
5 JUST DANCE BABY $7, encouraging debut last week and should benefit from the run and be in the mix. Gatespeed is a query as went back at only start
6 ODINS DRAGON RIDER $11, pretty disappointing in the straight last week after a perfect run in transit but previous form was okay and would be some chance if you overlook last run
7 NOELSGIRL $7, last 2 runs have been very good after making mistakes at first few runs. Draw makes it tougher but still a chance
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BREZHNEV LEIS $2.5, tough 3yo who lacks high speed but better suited to this trip than the mile last week and will almost certainly be put into the race early and he will fight it out all the way
Ratings 8/2/7/5/4/6/1
Speed comment: not a lot of exposed form to work off here but #2 Smokin Mustard did lead a couple of times as an early 2yo and this is the first time he has drawn well in ages so you would imagine that gatespeed is still there. #1 Delta Dee Dee showed a tad of speed last run so may even try to use the gate. #6 led and handed up from the pole last week, both 4 and 7 are prone to mistakes so don't tend to get used and #5 went back last week so forced to pick a leader would settle on #2 without much confidence. The only certainty on the speed map is that #8 will be around at some stage
Predicted Leader: Smokin Mustard
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Race 4
1 KOIZORA $15, showed a bit of speed and had support at first Tassie run but didn't do much in a very weak race, maybe give one more chance from the draw
2 ARTIFICE $2.2, been disappointing this time in but I like her in this as looks certain to get a soft run. I have made her my lay of the night at past 3 as been taking on the boys but this is her right class
3 THIRTYSIXTOES $7, typical honest run first up in a decent field. Is no star but tries hard and won't be far away
4 STRATEGIC MISS $21, one paced type who lacks the zip to win but wouldn't totally surprise to see her around the mark
5 IMA BLISSFUL BELL $11, been ultra disappointing this time in ( I had a very big bet on her one Monday night late last year when she beat a horse called Gedlee - God only knows how). Have to respect based on what she has done in the past but I want to see something prior to backing her
6 ROCK THE POCKET NZ $4.5, won a better race than this by 10 metres last week but don't believe all you see as was extremely flattered as was one of only 2-3 horses not to get knocked over. Still was a vast improvement on previous runs so should go close with a repeat performance
7 CYCLONE DYNASTY $21, resumes from a spell and usually needs to lead to do its best so the draw makes things tough
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BREATHING FIRE $21, been woeful at both starts since a spell, has the ability to feature but would need to improve big time
9 BAJARDO RIVER $11, draws to get a decent trail and been racing fairly in stronger races so don't dismiss
Ratings 2/6/3/9/1,5/field
Speed comment: #2 Artifice has been leading in much stronger races so you would think would stroll to the front here and get it easy. Forget the result last time as got hammered in the lead time. Nearly all the front line have some speed actually but the 2 will lead if they want but have a feeling for some reason that they may adjust their tactics this week which just makes it an ultra hard race to sort out
Predicted Leader: Artifice
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Race 5
1 ITS A HOOT $5, lot better run that it appeared first up as worked around when the speed was on, from this draw is right in the mix and might be value
2 LITTLE ELF $9, honest plugger who won't be far away from this draw but would probably need to lead and not sure he will
3 BRO TOWN NZ $15, been pretty average this campaign but does have ability when right so not prepared to dismiss completely as draws best gate this time in
4 KING OF JEWELS $3.2, hasn't had much luck recently, led and got attacked 2 starts back then was the first horse home in the running line last time. Will go close
5 DREAMON DONNY $101, been getting beaten a long way in far easier races. No
6 TIME TO PRAY $51, draw makes it extremely tough but certainly not the worst
7 MAGNIFICANTCAMELOT $34, resumes and need plenty of luck from the draw
---------- Second Row ----------
8 ANOPTOMIST $5, very unlucky not to win last week and be right in the finish with any luck from the draw
9 GUNBOWER JACK $101, another who is getting beaten a long way in easier races, No
10 MELMAN $6, very average drive last time so ignore the run. Goes best when drawn to lead but will keep coming if any speed on early
11 HESADIEBERKNIGHT $26, resumes and did win a trial in average time, still hard to have from the draw
Ratings 4/1/8/10/2/3
Speed comment: Hard to assess as the pole is a question mark, 2 has shown average speed and doubt he keeps out 3 or 4. Forced to pick would say 4 leads if they put the handle bars down early
Predicted Leader: King Of Jewels
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Race 6
1 HARLEY FELLA $1.8, this is tougher than recent runs but looks up to it and forget last run when was 5 and 6 wide the last 600 metres. Has had 13 starts over the past 12 months and drawn barriers 8,7,8,11,10,14,9,1,9,10,10,8,9 (2 races were stands) and the time he drew the pole which was 8 runs back, he led and ran 3rd beaten 3 metres behind a couple of "average" ones in Shez Ryleymak and Gamblers Rustler in 1.57.7 and also ran a 28.3 opening quarter. That has convinced me, think he deserves it!!
2 FORTY TWO GRAND $11, opportunist type who draws to get the type of run he loves, a must for exotics
3 SON OF JAM $13, resumes but place looks best in this class but have to respect anything the trainer produces currently so keeping relatively safe
4 RAMBLIN CULLEN $7, led in a FFA stand last time and not totally disgraced and this is obviously easier. Is some chance
5 GRACIE HART $3.2, was flying prior to a short let up, beat Cullens Angel 2 runs back then charged home in a 56.5 half last time. Draw makes it tough but if gets a cart into is the obvious danger
6 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($7,000) $51, form has tapered off badly, ran near last in claimers at past 2 and this obviously much tougher
Ratings 1/5/4/2/3
Speed comment: Been a while since Harley Fella drew to lead but used to possess good gatespeed and no flyers off the front here so would expect him to hold up, can't see much mid race pressure either to be honest which may play against Gracie Hart
Predicted Leader: Harley Fella
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Race 7
1 STILL ROYAL $3.5, led and bolted in last time in an easier race and would probably win again if he led but isn't a guaranteed leader this time. Still must go on top though
2 CURRYNROSES $7, sit/sprint mare who should get a cushy run from this gate, is resuming from a short break but prior to spell was going well enough to feature here
3 MURPHYS ROCKET $6, won both Tasmanian starts so far but much harder assignment here and the battle for the early lead with the pole could well decide his fate
4 MICKEY DELAHEY $21, going okay but just not finishing off his races currently, EW best
5 TEEJAY FELLA $9, had a slight let up but was also going well enough to feature prior to the spell, just needs a tinge of luck from the gate
6 EARL HICKEY $51, ran a good 4th last time but enjoyed a gun trip from the pole and that isn't going to happen from here
7 PENNYS DRAGON $34, form has tapered dramatically and will go back to last from the gate so prefer to watch
---------- Second Row ----------
8 TWOGRANDAHAND $11, honest type who draws to get the run he likes and a must include for exotics
9 MISTER GALLENTI $11, was well supported first up when had every hope but draws to get a decent trail again so EW hope
10 BAYFIELD HIGH $9, won at $70 last start but plenty of merit in the win as came 3 wide in a 58.2 closing half. If he gets the same cart up here there is no reason why he can't win again
11 ROSLYN AREFLYING $34, has ability when right but struggled of late and draw makes it tough
Ratings 1/3/2/10/5/9/8/4
Speed comment: the start is vitally important to the outcome here as both #1 and #3 led to win at their latest run and I am struggling to work out which one will actually lead. Whilst they might have a crack early there are a ton of sit/sprint horses in the race so might be a lack of mid race tempo
Predicted Leader: Still Royal
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Race 8
1 TOPUP $9, has a short, sharp sprint and draws to get the type of run he likes. Might be the blowout runner if things fall into place
2 DANCE OF THE DEITY $9, first up and had good form in decent races last time in so watch for any significant market moves
3 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS $7, always an EW hope with the right run in transit
4 SKY TOWER $5, resuming from a short let up but a very good and tough horse when right. Also goes very well when Erin drives him (10 wins and 7 seconds from 25 drives) so the main danger to the fav
5 ANGUS MCGREGOR $15, getting back to something like his best but might struggle from this draw
6 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ $1.8, looks well graded again in a mobile and is clearly the horse to beat. Can also win in a number of ways which is a bonus if laying the shorts as just as effective coming off the speed
Ratings 6/4/1/3/2/5
Speed comment: not a ton of gatespeed here and Cosmic Under Fire led from 6 in Launceston last week and may well do so again. #1 has gatespeed but hands up, #2 begins fairly, #3 goes best with a sit, #4 has some gatespeed but not brilliant as more dour and #5 used to have plenty but hasn't shown it in ages and was crossed by the 6 last time. I can see pressure in the race though as thats how Sky Tower races so even if the fav leads he might cop a bit mid race
Predicted Leader: Cosmic Under Fire
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Saturday Tip
Cranbourne
R1#6 The Silver Dart, looks a decent quinella with pole horse also. Don't break the bank on him though
R1#6 The Silver Dart, looks a decent quinella with pole horse also. Don't break the bank on him though
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