Hobart, Sunday September 19 early markets

Race 1

1 BREATHING FIRE 13
2 LOLA BROMAC NZ 4.5
3 BAJARDO RIVER 11
4 JET BLACK FLYER 4.5
5 THABELA BRIOSO 21
6 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.5
7 HELVIK 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DOVES PATCH NZ 17

The mares start the night over the mile trip and whilst its not usually a good practice tipping sit/sprint horses in mile races, I have settled on #6 Blacktie Affair to come out on top. Thought the drive left a bit to be desired last time and the small field really helps. There also looks to be plenty of speed so given even luck she should be able to reel them in. Spotted #2 Lola Bromac run a very cheeky race last time where she was the sole survivor of the early speed burn and if she led here could give plenty of cheek (the worry with her is that the pole has plenty of early toe so might not get there and she lacks the speed to come wide and win). #4 Jet Black Flyer continues to race well and whilst not as well drawn here is still a chance. #3 Bajardo River ran a bottler at huge odds in a similar field and should get a good trip from this draw so don't dismiss. Of the rest, #1 Breathing Fire was well supported first up when led and found nothing but draws to lead again and the shorter trip may help, #5 Thabela Brioso hasn't enjoyed much luck of late but this is tougher, #7 Helvik resumes and has ability but the draw makes it extremely tough and #8 Doves Patch also has ability but simply does too much wrong to be a betting proposition
Ratings 6/2/4/3/1,5,7,8

Race 2

1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 13
2 TITLED 34
3 CRASH CART 4
4 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 13
5 CULLENS COUNT NZ 13
6 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 1.8
7 SAMMYDREW 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PADDY MY BOY 51
9 THE BULLIONAIRE 21

#6 Iden Justasmyrk has won well at past 2 starts and looks a clear top pick again, he has been driven off the speed at past couple but would be very surprised if he didn't go forward here as can certainly work in his races. #3 Crash Cart is screaming Out to win a race and is a definite danger but does need things run to suit. One of the duo should definitely win but both #4 Livin In Heaven and #5 Cullens Count are very honest and if the favs don't get it there way may capitalise.
Ratings 6/3/4,5/1/7,9

Race 3

1 BIDE YOUR TIME 3
2 MURPHYS ROCKET 3
3 LISKENS GIFT 13
4 RISENSHINE 51
5 MOST HAPPY JASPER 11
6 MISTER GUNADOO 8
7 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LOCKDOWN 8
9 FLYING JASPER 17

Really struggling with this race I have to admit, settled on #1 Bide Your Time who went okay at first start back from a long spell and from this draw will get every chance, #2 Murphys Rocket has been going okay in Victoria and whilst down on his best form he would beat these at his best but its impossible to assess him at first start in the state. #6 Mister Gunadoo was well backed and well driven to score when resuming and despite the draw making it tougher here still comes into the mix and #8 Lockdown had no luck at all first up and may improve with a cold run from the draw. #3 Liskens Gift is an honest one paced type who gets his best draw in a while and #5 Most Happy Jasper also ran a cheeky race last time
Ratings 1/2/6,8/3,5/9/7

Race 4

1 ANOPTOMIST 8
2 KOIZORA (Em 1)
3 LINE THE POCKET NZ 13
4 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 2.5
5 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 11
6 MELMAN 13
7 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 KING OF JEWELS 11
9 ITS A HOOT 15
10 STRATEGIC MISS 51
11 SCARLETT BLAZE 8
12 LOOK LOOK 51
13 BRO TOWN NZ 34

Pretty keen on #4 Brian Buster Brown here, he enjoyed a good run in transit first up but despite being beaten he did make ground in a 28.2 closing split and beat the 3rd horse clearly so reckon he would towel these up with a repeat of that. #11 Scarlett Blaze is very honest and despite the draw making things tough won't be too far away. #1 Anoptomist finally draws a gate and despite his form not looking too flash on paper he has actually been going okay so don't discard. Of the remainder there are a few with question marks around them, #3 Line The Pocket is a well bred first starter who has been okay at the trials, #5 Royal Alchemist raced against some superstars as a young horse and was well backed when resuming from a 3 year break but did absolutely nothing but must have been showing something, #6 Melman is no star but will whack away, #8 King Of Jewels was gassed in front last time and should get a cheap run from here and might be the blowout and #9 Its A Hoot resumes but is a decent sit/sprint type at his best
Ratings 4/11/1/8/3,5,6,9

Race 5

1 EARL HICKEY 26
2 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.6
3 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
4 IM LE FREAK NZ 34
5 GUERRERO 51
6 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 51
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DENVERS BOY 9
9 NEW YORK FELLA 26
10 MICKEY DELAHEY 26
11 BAYFIELD HIGH 34
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 9

#2 Biggernbettermax grows a leg when he leads and looks like that will be the case here, he is more tough than brilliant but on the pegs in front he will run home in the 57s and therefore make it impossible for anything in this class to run him down. The only half query is that there is plenty of gatespeed around him but he has plenty himself so should lead as should keep the ones outside him out early and the pole would surely hand up. #12 Touchwood Bucksta is simply flying and on ability could possibly beat the fav but from its draw will probably be giving him a 30-40m head start so hard to see him winning but is still the main danger, #8 Denvers Boy has really stepped it up this time in and whilst he also gets an average draw will be in the placings with average luck. The rest are all quite even to be honest but minor place prospects only
Ratings 2/12/8/field

Race 6

1 RIKKISU 26
2 DELTA DEE DEE 21
3 TOWN TRICKSTER
4 CHERYL MARY 21
5 NOELSGIRL 3.8
6 BREZHNEV LEIS 3.8
7 DUSTY KALENA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
10 IDEN NOSHOT 8

Tricky little race but #6 Brezhnev Leis looks the safe option here, probably doesn't have the ability of a couple of its rivals but is honest and does things right, should press forward from the gate and won't be far away at the finish. #5 Noelsgirl has plenty of ability but its hard to back considering she has galloped in all of her starts bar one but has to be respected as probably wins with a foolproof display, #7 Dusty Kalena is another with plenty of tricks but also has a big motor so despite the draw may surprise if on best behaviour. #9 Odins Dragon Rider had its chance to win last time after getting a soft lead but the thing that may get overlooked here is that it still beat home nearly all the main danger today so might be over the odds, #10 Iden Noshot was disappointing in that race after having a good trip but is too good to dismiss completely and I thought #8 Smokin Mustard ran very well leading up the 3 wide line and battling on well in a sub 59 closing half. Even the other 3 aren't totally hopeless but the winner should come from the top 6 in the market
Ratings 6/5/9/7/8,10

Race 7

1 TOPUP 11
2 DANCE OF THE DEITY
3 JUMPIN JACK JASPER 5
4 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 9
5 RAMBLIN CULLEN 11
6 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6
7 ULOS 7
8 RONNIE RAT 17
9 ANGUS MCGREGOR 21
10 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 4

Very difficult race to end the Quaddie, at first glimpse it appears #10 Cosmic Under Fire has found another good race for him but the conditions of this race make this a heap tougher than previous few as he meets most rivals 20-30 metres worse off than in past couple so you don't want to be taking silly odds. He still goes on top though. #3 Jumpin Jack Jasper is always a chance in a stand with his manners, #7 Ulos has returned to his best of late and went okay behind #10 a couple of runs back and #6 Majestic Emperor looks quite well placed on the handicaps. Also have plenty of respect for any runner off the front in a stand with ability and all of #1 Topup, #4 The Musics Over and #5 Ramblin Cullen fit that bill as if the step an
d get a soft run its hard to see anything giving them 40 metres and beating them
Ratings 10/3/7/6/1,4,5

Race 8

1 HELLO NOT BAD 15
2 KOIZORA 3
3 LITTLE ELF 2.2
4 OUR LAST KNIGHT 8
5 TIME TO PRAY 13
6 DEEJAY BROMAC 17
7 DREAMON DONNY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 GIRLS IN PINK 21
9 GUNBOWER JACK 51

This is a reverse points order race so the form of all runners is awful and doesn't instil a ton of confidence betting wise. Really think the 2 ex Victorians look better than the rest but still a bit of an educated guess. #3 Little Elf has raced against some very good horses and been competitive at times so whilst his previous form has been average at best you simply have to respect what he can do. #2 Koizora is pretty similar to #3 in that raced against decent horses in Victoria and form tapered off dramatically of late but you must respect. Of the rest, #4 Our Last Knight ran a cheeky race last time in a leader dominated event and might appreciate the drop in class. Going to leave it at that as hard to provide a supportive argument for any of them to be honest
Ratings 3/2/4/field

Race 9

1 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 6
2 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 17
3 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($5,000) 8
4 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 3.5
5 PENNYS DRAGON ($5,000) 5
6 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 13
7 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($6,000) 3.5

The Claimer finishes the night and reckon #7 Bonnie Wee Laddie will atone for a luckless run last time at first start for the Hillier camp, plenty of tough types off the front should ensure a decent tempo and the small field also assists his sit/sprint style, #4 Waterloo Bay has been almost unbeatable in these stand start claimers for a while but think the gap has narrowed now and they are pretty even but he does things right so will always be a hope. #1 Costa Smerelda ran a terrific race last time death seating and finishing close up and if stepped to the front would be the one to beat and there is also a watch on #5 Pennys Dragon who is having first start in this grade. Haven't mentioned #3 The Cherokee Chief as yet either and he was only beaten a metre last time against a similar field and the other 2 runners aren't completely hopeless either. Just a typical stand start claimer
Ratings 7/4/1/5/3/2,6

Meeting Summary, Hobart September 12

Fairly standard meeting, no standout performances but a couple of decent form reference races

Run of the Night

Resurgence, simply a tough and honest horse who does it at both ends of a race. Have to put my hand up and say I under rated him (which is strange considering he did me some huge favours last campaign). Worked in lead time of 34.6 to find the front then dug deep in straight to cling on and win. I always thought his lack of high speed would hurt in the better class races and it still may but with his gatespeed and toughness he will be competitive in most races he contests

Drive of the Night

Joshua Duggan (Boozy Rouge), it looked a simple sit and steer job but I like to give this award to a driver who makes a decision in a race that helps them win. Hear way too many drivers get credit for great drives when they simply finish up in the right spot. Josh identified that he had to stay in front of one horse early (Saab Quality) so when the horse 3 wide in front of him pulled back into his lap he decided to pull 4 wide around the first turn and thus stayed in front of his main danger as the first one round would have found the front and the result may have been different if he didn't make that move

Also have to make mention of his father's (Ricky Duggan) drives on the night which were perfect on a number of occasions, every horse he drove received every hope. 5 horses in particular (Bide Your Time, Scarlett Blaze, Denvers Boy, Guerrero and Albert Jones) had every possible hope to win given where he positioned them in the run and it was simply a great display from a great driver

Slaughter of the Night

Glad to say that most drives weren't too bad, forced to pick on anything I would nominate Ken Austin (Gunbower Jack) and Brendan Gebel (Mountain Momma) who were both driving $100 pops and preferred to stay in the running line out the back instead of opting for the spot 3 pegs which was there for the taking. It is a great spot to be when an even money favourite is leading and you are on a bolter. As it was, the driver who took the initiative (Roger Brown, Cancellara) finished up running 4th whereas both Mountain Momma and Gunbower Jack were out wide gasping for breath at the 400. These 2 are unlucky to get nominated as see this thing happen every week in Tassie with most drivers having a serious aversion to being on the fence - it is still the shortest way home

Blackbookers (no standouts)

Crash Cart, hoof right on the till
Most Happy Jasper, encouraging at first run for new stable, might bob up at big odds shortly
Scarlett Blaze, every hope last night but beaten by a good one and cleared out from 3rd horse
Noelsgirl, finally put it together and certainly has ability
Smokin Mustard, did a bit of work and kept coming
Dusty Kalena, certainly going to win races when its manners improve
Touchwood Bucksta, really going well and chance in anything he contests

From the Sectional Times

Nothing outstanding but in the 3YO race, there were 3 horses who all went very well at big odds. The horses were Noelsgirl, Smokin Mustard and Dusty Kalena who were all wide in the last lap and they ran home in 28.9 and all 3 found the line strongly and therefore are worth following. Also thought Touchwood Bucksta went sensational later in the night coming from miles off the leader out wide to run 2nd in a 58.8 half
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Race 1 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.0, lead time 35.6 (bit quicker than average), first half 62.6, last half 59.0

Good class C1 event, speed was even throughout and may be a decent form reference going forward

Biggernbettermax (1st), did more work than anything and still too tough. Is more tradesmanlike than brilliant at the moment but will continue to pregress through the classes provided he draws well
Harbhajan (2nd), pulled very hard once again which told in the straight, that trait has probably cost him winning his past 2 starts now which is a concern. Would imagine they would be very quiet on him early next run
Crash Cart (3rd), very good run again, bit stiff to run into a couple going through the grades but he simply must win a race soon the way he is going. Beat the 4th horse clearly
Most Happy Jasper (5th), cheeky run at odds at first run for new stable, if he draws to lead in a mile race soon might be worth a bet
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Race 2 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.06.0, lead time 37.3 (very slow), first half 66.8, last half 58.5

Farcically run race and when the best horses in the race raced handy it was over a long way from home. Totally forget the runs of anything back in the field

Boozy Rouge (1st), well deserved win, got soft lead then walked and sprinted home in 27.9
Saab Quality (2nd), typical honest run, think he has to lead to win at open age level and still out of the draw for another run
Bide Your Time (3rd), very encouraging run at first start for 18 months, had a good run in transit and kept coming in the quick closing fraction
Ultimate Heir (4th), well driven to lead, hand up to right horse and maximise its finishing position
Monicas Notch (5th), not suited by tempo but was working home okay late
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Race 3 - C0, 2090m, mile rate 2.01.4, lead time 35.0 (fast), first half 61.2, last half 61.4

Strangely run race, always question marks around the form when the last half is slower than the first half. Did think the first 2 over line were very impressive though

Iden Justasmyrk (1st), had race run to suit but was a mile off the leader at the 1200 mark so his sectionals would actually be okay. He continues to improve and should get through a couple more classes pretty quickly
Scarlett Blaze (2nd), good run for the 2nd week in a row. Finished a long way in front of the 3rd horse so his hoof is right on the till
Thirtysixtoes (3rd), well driven and plugged home
Melman (4th), honest run, neither overly good or overly bad
Artifice (6th), did way too much work early, was a shocking price though (for 2nd week in a row). She is way better suited over mile trips, against her own sex and driven with cover so was 0/3 on that front yet was sent out as fav????
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Race 4 - 3YO, 2090m, mile rate 2.03.2, lead time 37.3 (very slow), first half 64.0, last half 58.7

Best horse won but merit in the runs of the first 5 over the line

Bettor Draw (1st), simply too classy, also was put into the race this week unlike when first up and sat last the entire race in a slowly run race
Odins Dragon Rider (2nd), had every possible hope given the sectionals but was beaten by a fair horse.
Noelsgirl (3rd), did it right for the first time and was a very good run
Smokin Mustard (4th), went a lot better than past couple being 3 wide without cover from bell in 58.7 half and never shirked the task
Dusty Kalena (5th), continues to have issues with manners but is going to be a handy horse when this racing caper clicks
Iden Noshot (6th), very disappointing, had perfect run in transit and didn't find much late
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Race 5 - C3-C4, 2090m, mile rate 2.00.7, lead time 34.6 (very fast), first half 62.3, last half 59.8

Went very quickly early in this and nothing ran home. Very fence dominated race and first 4 cleared out

Resurgence (1st), good honest horse who can do it at both ends of a race. Has now won 4 on end and this is the quickest he has run home (59.8) so how much further he can go is debatable but won't be far away in anything
Bayfield High (2nd), thought he was home halfway up the straight and had him going for plenty so wasn't happy!! Under rated horse who always runs well when draws okay
Mickey Delahey (3rd), looked to be travelling okay when run came but just plodded home
King Albert (4th), very average, had perfect run in transit and didn't give much despite the slow closing fractions
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Race 6 - C1, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.1, lead time 36.3 (average), first half 62.3, last half 60.0

First 3 over line clearly superior to the rest

Denvers Boy (1st), enjoyed a good run in transit and too strong in straight
Jet Black Flyer (2nd), another good run, probably entitled to win but seems to race best when held up for a late crack at them
Cullens Count (3rd), enjoyed a soft run and battled on well as usual
Chanceabet (8th), disgraceful. Gone at bell and beaten a mile
Doves Patch (9th), galloped again, horse is a fair dinkum fruit loop
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Race 7 - C2, 2090m, mile rate 2.03.7, lead time 37.0 (slow), first half 64.8, last half 58.8

Fav led, set a slow speed and bolted in. 2nd horse went okay and resy very bunched

Still Royal (1st), showed surprising speed to lead and was always going to win
Touchwood Bucksta (2nd), probably went as well as the winner coming wide from last and nothing took him into the race
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Race 8 - Claimer, 2090m, mile rate 2.02.4, lead time 37.4 (very slow), first half 62.8, last half 58.8

First 3 a mile better than the others

Ulos (1st), surprisingly short odds and had to pull out all stops to win. Good win though as both placegetters are going okay and had to give both a start
Albert Jones (2nd), enjoyed a perfect run and just run down. Continues to race well
Jefferson (3rd), clearly his best Tasmanian run, getting close to a win

Sunday Tips

Hobart - tips all races

R1#5 Biggernbettermax
R2#4 Boozy Rouge
R3#12 Iden Justasmyrk
R4#4 Bettor Draw
R5#9 King Albert
R6#7 Chanceabet
R7#11 Touchwood Bucksta
R8#7 Ulos

Best Bets
R3#12 Iden Justasmyrk
R5#9 King Albert

Best at odds
R7#10 Thabela Brioso (get around $10 I reckon)

Best Bolter
R4#10 Dusty Kalena

$100 Quaddie

2,4,9
9
1,3,5,7,8
1,4,10,11
$40 gives 66%

2,4,9
1,2,3,6,7,9
1,3,5,7,8
10,11
$60 gives 33%

Full preview below

Hobart Sunday August 12, full preview

Race 1

1 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 13
2 LADY ELEANOR 41
3 MOST HAPPY JASPER 26
4 CRASH CART 9
5 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 1.8
6 TITLED 101
7 TOPOTHECLOUDS 17
---------- Second Row ----------
8 HAVILAH HAWK 67
9 HARBHAJAN 3.5

#5 Biggernbettermax gets into another winnable race here, must admit that I won't be jumping in though as there are a couple of queries but if he finds the front which he should do he is mighty hard to run down. There is some speed under him though so despite having good gatespeed I don't have him as a certain leader hence my apprehension or would have priced him shorter as #9 Harbhajan has drawn to take advantage should the fav have to do it too hard early. Totally ignore his last run when used out of the gate and pulled himself into the ground (ran first 1800m in 2.12.7 which equates to a 1.58.6 mile rate). His previous form is first class when driven cold early so expect to see him back to his best from this draw. #4 Crash Cart is one I blackbooked at his last run but didn't expect him to run into a couple of good ones but still some chance, he is back in the draw for the first time in ages so his gatespeed is totally unknown but is a must for exotics as is #1 Pearls From Heaven who always runs an honest race when drawn well and whilst she probably can't beat the favs will be thereabouts somewhere. #7 Topotheclouds is another who never runs a bad race but may struggle a tad from this gate. If going wide in exotics, maybe include both #2 Lady Eleanor who has early speed and #3 Most Happy Jasper who is first up for a new stable
Ratings 5,9/4/1/7/2,3

Race 2

1 MONICAS NOTCH 6
2 PARADIGM GIRL 21
3 RISENSHINE 41
4 BOOZY ROUGE 2.2
5 PADDY MY BOY 21
6 BIDE YOUR TIME 17
7 ULTIMATE HEIR 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 THE BULLIONAIRE 11
9 SAAB QUALITY 3.8

#4 Boozy Rouge hasn't enjoyed the best of luck recently and looks to have found a nice race here, shouldn't be any excuses anyway. He usually races best when not used early but would imagine that would go forward at some stage here and just outplug them late. #9 Saab Quality is a very good horse who tends to race best from the front of the field so the draw does him no favours but if he can get into the race early will definitely make a race of things with Boozy. Of the rest, #1 Monicas Notch is a one paced type and from this draw with not much speed off the front row may improve a lot on recent runs. One of that trio should definitely win but #8 The Bullionaire is always a blowout chance if he gets the right run and from this draw that just might happen. #6 Bide Your Time is an interesting runner resuming with good form in easier races prior to a spell but trial looks plain on paper but respect any betting moves
Ratings 4/9/1/8/2,5,6

Race 3

1 EMMA ETOILE 34
2 THIRTYSIXTOES 17
3 GIRLS IN PINK 34
4 STRATEGIC MISS 21
5 ARTIFICE 4
6 IMA BLISSFUL BELL 21
7 DREAMON DONNY 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BRO TOWN NZ 17
9 MELMAN 9
10 SCARLETT BLAZE 13
11 DEEJAY BROMAC 101
12 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 2.5

#12 Iden Justasmyrk looks clearly better than his rivals here and if not for the barrier would almost be a good thing, he is big and tough though so can certainly overcome the draw and reckon he wins easily if driven aggressively early. #5 Artifice has been a shade disappointing this time in despite winning 2 of 4 starts as both of those were in very average time. Think she is better suited against her own sex but the barrier draw advantage over all the other chances here brings her into play as could get a very cheap lead. #9 Melman had every hope when winning first up but did beat a decent field and although not as well drawn here still looms as a chance. #10 Scarlett Blaze boxed on okay last time and finished well clear of the 5th placegetter and has definite place claims, #8 Bro Town has ability when right and should get a cheap pegs run from the draw, #2 Thirtysixtoes is another who is competitive in most races but from the draw is a must include for exotics. #6 Ima Blissfull Bell is an interesting runner, was kept very safe in a good field when resuming and did absolutely nothing but is better than that and #4 Strategic Miss whacks away and might sneak a place
Ratings 12/5/9/2,8/6/3

Race 4

1 AWESOME BUDDY 26
2 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5.5
3 GUN FILLY 13
4 BETTOR DRAW 3.2
5 TOWN TRICKSTER 17
6 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 51
7 DELTA DEE DEE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 21
9 IDEN NOSHOT 3.8
10 DUSTY KALENA 21
11 NOELSGIRL 51

#4 Bettor Draw looked a shade disappointing on face value last time but in hindsight had little hope the race was run settling last in a slowly run race. His form prior to last run was good enough for this, he draws better and gets Gareth and also should be driven more aggressively from this draw so is the top pick. #9 Iden Noshot won the race last week and this isn't the worst draw for him either with his sit/sprint style as should trail through early into a handy position and be the one coming home late. #2 Odins Dragon Rider ran 3rd in that same race last week and from this similar draw should be close up again. One of that trio should win but #3 Gun Filly has run a couple of cheeky races from bad draws lately so might be a chance here, #5 Town Trickster was a decent run in a leader dominated race at last start as was #8 Smokin Mustard and #10 Dusty Kalena is one who has shocking numerical form but certainly has some ability when gets it right so might bump up the exotics
Ratings 4/9/2/3,5/8,10

Race 5

1 MICKEY DELAHEY 7
2 BAYFIELD HIGH 11
3 PHANTOM JASPER 8
4 ODINS CONSTANTINE
5 TOUCHA REVENGE 34
6 NEW YORK FELLA 8
7 RESURGENCE 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 NOVEMBER TWENTY 17
9 KING ALBERT 2.8
10 ROSLYN AREFLYING 26

Looks very well placed in this #9 King Albert, has been very competitive of late in C4 or better races and with the junior driver lift here gets into a C3-C4 race that is much easier than he has been meeting. The only downside is that he hasn't won for 20 starts but should be quite backable so happy to be on. The remainder of the field are very even, #1 Mickey Delahey had every possible last time and just missed but draws to get every hope again, #4 Odins Constantine had 2 mobile starts last campaign and led and bolted in both times so must be respected at first start back. #3 Phantom Jasper is an honest type who benefitted from a stagger home last time, #2 Bayfield High has speed and from the good draw must be included, #6 New York Fella was a little unlucky last time but draws awkwardly this time and #7 Resurgence is a good honest type who has won his past 3 starts but its worth noting he never broke 60 the last half in any of those wins and draws 7 here so is a place hope only. To sum it up, I am keen on King Albert and confident he beats the rest with a slight query on #4 Odins Constantine first up
Ratings 9/1/2,3,6,7/field

Race 6

1 JET BLACK FLYER 3.5
2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 51
3 DOVES PATCH NZ 6
4 RED RIVER GEE GEE 34
5 DENVERS BOY 4.2
6 GUNBOWER JACK 101
7 CHANCEABET 4.2
---------- Second Row ----------
8 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
9 CANCELLARA 17

Struggled a bit with this race as all the chances are coming through differing formlines so a bit hard to assess. #1 Jet Black Flyer gets the draw and the form around her has stood up so goes on top. The only query with her is that her best runs have been when driven with cover and not sure if they would hand up here if she can retain the front. #5 Denvers Boy has really come in at past few, he will go forward and despite looking a little plain when winning last time I think that was more to do with him switching off after walking mid race. #7 Chanceabet would definitely have been my top pick from a better gate as his 2 runs for the Ford camp have been enormous and he does make his own luck so still a major player. The query runner is #3 Doves Patch who does plenty wrong but certainly has ability and this is the first time she has drawn a gate in Tassie so improvement certainly wouldn't surprise and #8 Cullens Count gets the draw to have a soft run and is going okay of late. Pretty confident that winds up the chances with #9 Cancellara being the only other place hope but he has been below his best this season and its worth noting that in his last 2 races where he has been placed that they staggered home in 32 each time
Ratings 1,5,7/3/8/9

Race 7

1 STILL ROYAL 6
2 GUERRERO 13
3 AS YOU WISH 11
4 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 5
5 SPENDIT NZ 13
6 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 26
7 PRINCE PLANET NZ 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LOCKDOWN 13
9 WEEMALANEWS
10 THABELA BRIOSO 6
11 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 4

Terribly difficult race to sort out, have settled on #11 Touchwood Bucksta who despite being somewhat flattered to win last time courtesy of a fence hugging drive still ran good time coming from last in a 57.7 closing half. Will obviously need some luck from this draw but will be right in the mix if he gets any. #10 Thabela Brioso might be the value as last run doesn't look too flash on paper but its worth noting that she did a ton of work from barrier 7 to get the death seat in a very fast lead time followed by a 60.9 opening half so was no surprise to see her tire. #4 Touchwood Teeksta loves to lead in its races and might just get there here and would be the horse to beat if he did. #1 Still Royal is another who is racing consistently and the start will be crucial to him as got headed easily the last time he drew the pole but if he could hold his position early would be a major player. Also have to afford chances to most other runners so its a field job for the minor end of the exotics
Ratings 11/4,10/1/3,5/2,8/field

Race 8

1 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 5
2 NIBEBO ($5,000)
3 THE CROWD PLEASER ($5,000) 21
4 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 21
5 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 3.5
6 JEFFERSON NZ ($10,000) 3.5
7 ULOS ($10,000) 3.2

The Claimers revert to the mobile here and I am really struggling to split the bottom 3 runners. Forced to pick one would go with #7 Ulos who I spotted run well last time making ground out wide in a 57.6 half but he will probably settle last here so hard to be confident. #6 Jefferson went okay in a stronger Claimer at Melton last time and this is easier and #5 Albert Jones probably threw victory away last week with a mid race error. Will probably come down to who gets the right run from the trio but I won't underestimate #1 Secret Rendezvous who has been disappointing at past couple but has a great record in these mobile Claimers as a rule. That quartet should really fight things out
Ratings 7/5,6/1

Tassie Season Review - 2009/2010

Harness Racing is stronger in Tasmania now than it has been in ages. The prizemoney is good, liquidity in pools is growing which encourages punters to bet and a couple of horses are coming through that are the best I have seen in ages so things are looking promising going forward.

The Horses

Once again, Shez Ryleymak flew the flag with a 2nd in the Group 1 Vicbred final and she just continues to step up year after year. There were some exciting new kids on the block though headed by Gedlee who ran an amazing 2nd to Lanercost in the Australian Derby after galloping at the start, tacking on and running him to a length at the finish. I can still remember the day he made me sit up and take notice that he might be a serious horse as he hadn't done anything too startling prior to this run. He led one day at Launceston and then reeled off a 56.5 last half whilst hard held which was a week prior to the Australian Derby run and ever since then has gone to another level and I can't wait to see him back around Christmas time as he is the most promising horse I have seen in Tassie for ages. It actually looks a bumper crop of 3YOs in Tassie with Udoit doing good things in Victoria late in the season and Saturday Night bursting on the scene winning his only 3 starts by half the length of the straight so will be very interesting to see how they all come back. Cullens Angel is another to make her mark this year winning in 1.54 and making the Breeders Crown final where her chances were killed by the barrier draw but still ran a respectable race. Even a couple of 2YOs impressed with Quastor Centurion winning 8 from 10 and Winewomenandsong winning his only 2 starts late in the season.

The Drivers

Once again it was dominated by Gareth Rattray who just failed to beat the single season record held by his father. As somebody who watches tons of Tasmanian races, it simply amazes me how consistently good Gareth is and like most punters I can be very critical about drivers. Many others should take note of exactly what he does because its obviously not all down to ability, sure his surname may have given him some advantages early on but you only have to speak to him and his knowledge of everything from form to breeding shines through and that is obviously a big part of his success. The new kid on the block though is Nathan Ford who took things to another level this year winning the junior drivers award easily and capping off his year with a couple of wins at Melton on Cullens Angel. Watching him drive early on it was always apparent that horses ran for Nathan but he was still a little raw but now he is simply a very good driver and with the backing of a very strong stable, he might just be nipping at Gareth's heels this year. Should also make mention of the performance of Erin Hollaway in winning the ladies driver award as a junior who managed to run down the talented Nat Emery late in the season.

The Trainers

Philip Ford just went to another level this year and seemed to train at least a double at most meetings late in the season. If he can continue in the same vein of form he is a good chance to crack the century of winners this year. Grant Hodges went through a bit of a lean spell during the season but he really came back with a bang towards the end of the year.

Going forward

Hopefully one of the 3YO horses from last year can step up and make it to the big league as been a while since Tassie had a seriously good horse - we would like to claim Villagem but he was only bred here and came back for a a handful of 2yo races. For me, Gedlee might be the one as he has untapped talent so lets just hope I haven't put the kiss of death on him. Trying to pluck one from left field, I reckon a 2YO filly from last season Codie Karalta might step up this year, she didn't overly flatter last season in winning 2 of 6 but she looks a likely type and is also well bred being a half sister to Villagem and closely related to Cody Maverick.

Launceston Meeting Summary, September 5

The meeting produced some very strangely run races and a few ordinary performances but there were a couple of horses worth following who should win for sure in the near future

Blackbookers from meeting

Cindys Babe
Brian Buster Brown

Drive of the Night

David Medhurst (Touchwood Bucksta), drew outside the front row in barrier 8 yet never went round a horse prior to the home straight to get up on the line. Given the sectionals in that they finished off in 28.1 he definitely wouldn't have even run a place if he went round them so is an obvious winner this week

Run of the Night

Cindys Babe, usually like to award this to a winner but nothing really stood out and she was simply enormous in defeat, was 3 and 4 wide for the entire first 400m of the race around the first turn then ground her co-favourite into the ground only to be nailed on the line by a horse who had enjoyed an easier run. Both Bonnie Wee Laddie and Albert Jones were stiff in defeat in the Claimer also

Slaughter of the Night

Todd Rattray (Blacktie Affair), strangely enough I awarded the same combo drive of the night last week but it wasn't pretty this week. Think thats the major problem with the drive actually - he tried to drive it pretty! It was okay to drive it that way last week when a $12 chance but as a $1.50 fav this week there should have been nothing left to chance. When on a long odds on pop who is travelling you don't get involved in a jostling match on the turn and finish up locking wheels and costing the horse the race. If he took off 4 wide at the 400 he would have won by 5 metres minimum. Some may say he was unlucky and that may well be the case but he simply shouldn't have been in the situation he was

From the Sectional Times

Harbhajan - lead time of 42.1 is the quickest I have seen since recording them. He actually ran the first 1800m of the race in 2.12.7 which is equivalent to a mile rate of 1.58.6. Wasn't the fault of anybody concerned though as they had to try and use him from barrier 1 and he simply took charge after that. Put it this way, if he didn't get used early and ran his last 1800m in that time he would have won by half the straight

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Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 5.4 (average), first half 62.0, last half 59.0

First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race

Mister Gunadoo (1st), perfectly driven to hand up front then got out at the right time and finished off well
Cindys Babe (2nd), super run, did more work than anything and got nailed on the line by a horse with a softer run. Simply has to win soon
Ark Raid (3rd), had her chance after leading, maybe goes better with a sit
Rock The Pocket (4th), got good run through early and plugged into 4th
Top Premier (5th), got a check at top of the straight but still think he should have finished off better given the soft run
Rosarium (6th), encouraging debut run as held ground with every other runner bar the first 2 over the line
Our Last Knight (7th), decent effort from bad gate, might bob up in a race soon
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Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.04.2, lead time 45.8 (slower than average), first half 64.4, last half 59.6

First 3 over the line clearly superior to the rest

Sanreos (1st), did it right for first time in ages and a good tough win
Bajardo River (2nd), proved the cheeky run the week prior was no fluke and ran home well for close 2nd, wish she won as had something on her at the $50s
Blacktie Affair (3rd), should have won clearly bar for locking wheels on turn
Monicas Notch (4th), locked wheels with fav on turn and battled on just fairly after that
Breathing Fire (5th), resumed from long spell and despite being supported was obviously in need of the run as didn't do much after an easy run in the lead
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Race 3 - C0, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.9, lead time 46.3 (slow), first half 63.7, last half 58.0

First 2 dominated the rest of them

Biggernbettermax (1st), proved again he is a very good leader and very hard to get past when he does
Brian Buster Brown (2nd), super run, loomed up to win at the 100 but being first up plus a closing fraction of 28.1 probably told in the end. He would have run sub 28 himself so hoof is right on the till
Look Look (3rd), well driven to place again. Outclassed by first 2 over line but did beat the rest easily
Artifice (4th), struggled in her first go against the boys as only ever raced against own age and sex previously. Still kept coming in straight and despite being beaten 14 metres she gets some credit as the closing qtr made it impossible to make ground from where she was
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Race 4 - Claimer, 2200m Stand, mile rate 2.05.2, lead time 49.2 (average), first half 63.1, last half 58.8

As per a lot of claiming races it was a bunched finish with a metre separating the first 4 over the line. Mid race interference also impacted a couple as well

Waterloo Bay (1st), manners won him the race by pinging to the early lead. I was a tad disappointed in his performance actually as thought he should have won easier given the run. He did run sub 30 the last 3 quarters though so wasn't too bad
Bonnie Wee Laddie (2nd), pretty stiff not to win at first start for new stable after copping interference in the run. Definitely one to follow in this grade
Costa Smerelda (3rd), good honest run, did a bit of work and never shirked the task. If he can draw to lead will be mighty hard to beat at this level
The Cherokee Chief (4th), better run and also kept whacking away in the straight
Albert Jones (5th), probably threw the race away by galloping mid race when in a perfect position to strike and still finished off okay after that
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Race 5 - C1, 1680m, mile rate 2.02.2, lead time 5.2 (quicker than average), first half 64.7, last half 57.7

Both favs did things wrong which changed the complexion of the race big time, best drive won the race

Touchwood Bucksta (1st), was a super run at previous start but I couldn't see him figuring from barrier 8 over the mile trip but the drive was superb saving a ton of ground. Keep in mind they finished off in 28.1 so still plenty of merit in the win
Barooga Billy (2nd), very disappointing, should have been a certainty once he led and the other favourite galloped but he drifted off the fence and threw it away. Continues to be a very frustrating horse
Boozy Rouge (3rd), probably the best run in the race actually coming wide in a quick last half to finish close up. Is very close to another win
Topotheclouds (4th), never runs a bad race this bloke and will crack it for another win soon
Flying Jasper (5th), every possible, had race presented to him and couldn't take advantage
Livin In Heaven (6th), another cheeky run at odds, didn't help when fav ran off track at the 400 but boxed on okay
Saab Quality (8th), broke after the start which put paid to his chances
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Race 6 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.00.7, lead time 42.1 (very fast), first half 60.6, last half 62.3

Strangely run race where they got slower the longer it went and as always the form in these races is very suspect

Resurgence (1st), did a bit of work early but enjoyed the gun trip after that, the slogging finish also suited him down to the ground as whacks away all day
Cancellara (2nd), another better run from him, still not at his best but not far off
As You Wish (3rd), enjoyed the solid tempo and kept coming
Harbhajan (4th), total forgive run as took charge of the driver. Was first start back in the draw and got used early from barrier 1 which they had to try and do but is obviously far better suited driven cold
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Race 7 - C4-C6, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.5, lead time 42.8 (very fast), first half 64.5, last half 58.8

Another insanely quick lead time which narrowed the chances early but first 3 over the line all went very well

Topup (1st), enjoyed a gun trip but still put the race away very quickly when asked to sprint, final quarter in 28.2 and he came from off the speed
King Albert (2nd), continues to run good races at big odds. His turn must come soon
The Musics Over (3rd), encouraging return to racing and showed that the fall at previous start hasn't impacted him at all
Wingsofaneagle (6th), showed enormous gatespeed to even keep out King Of Bling initially and I thought he boxed on okay after that. May be one to follow at odds
King Of Bling (8th), spent all his pennies early on but still entitled to fight on a bit better at the end of the race
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Race 8 - 3YO, 2200m, mile rate 2.06.2, lead time 47.4 (very slow), first half 65.8, last half 59.3

Thought the first four all went about as well as each other and it purely came down to the tempo of the race as to who won as it was extremely slow early and therefore leader dominated

Iden Noshot (1st), well driven and once he got the run was always going to be mighty hard to hold off with his speed
Brezhnev Leis (2nd), another honest run, just lacks a bit of speed currently but never gives up
Odins Dragon Rider (3rd), improved run and a win isn't far away
Bettor Draw (4th), early sectionals didn't give him much hope but should have been put into the race much earlier

Sunday Tips

Pretty average meeting this which seems to happen this time of year Australia wide. It seems really silly to me as lots of people are missing a great opportunity to win races. Take the horses who desperately tried to win their 2yo maiden prior to the end of the season, most of them failed and then went straight for a spell to coincide with their 2yo season finishing. What most overlook is that there are some of the weakest 3yo races going at the moment and there for the taking yet you can bet your bottom dollar that some of those 2yo horses who were trying to win their maiden this year will be trying at the end of the season to win their 3yo maiden when a lot could get it out of the way now just by being kept in work another month or so. As I also said, this definitely isn't isolated to Tasmania either

Launceston

R1#4 Cindys Babe
R2#8 Blacktie Affair
R3#2 Biggernbettermax
R4#3 Waterloo Bay
R5#1 Saab Quality
R6#1 Harbhajan
R7#6 King Of Bling
R8#6 Bettor Draw

Best Bet
R7#6 King Of Bling

Best Value
R1#4 Cindys Babe

$100 Quaddie

3,5,6,7
1,4
1
6
$40

3,6
1,4
1
field
$30

3,6
1,4
field
6
$30