This is a major bugbear for many followers as there seems to be regular cases that there is one rule for some and another rule for others - usually the big names v the battlers. Could list countless issues here but just going to touch on a couple of rules that seem to be only applied sparingly which is when its the most frustrating.
The first point though is something that I never hear mentioned too often but it always gets me. It is when a trotter gallops in the last part of a race and everybody wonders whether that horse will keep the race and a protest is generally fired in every time by either the placegetters or the stewards. You never hear anything though when a horse gallops for 100 metres with two laps to go and gets up to win but seriously, what is the difference? There is no difference in reality but I reckon over the years I have seen 1000 trotters win after galloping at some part early in a race and their win is never questioned, yet I have seen many horses relegated for doing exactly the same thing in the home straight despite not gaining ground. Would have been interesting if Rostevarren held on to win on Sunday afternoon after breaking in the straight.
Sprint Lanes and Marker Pegs are another issue and more specifically horses being disqualified for entering the sprint lane or knocking over or going inside the pegs. This rule is that inconsistently applied it isn't funny and seems to be the flavour of the month every 2 months or so and a few get pinged then nothing happens until there is another blitz a couple of months later. It should be easy to adjudicate this one but the only consistencies regarding the rule currently is that if a big name driver or a short priced favourite breaks the rule then its okay whilst the battler cops it every time and that it gets applied only once every blue moon.
Could go on and on with things such as suspensions, relegation, etc but leave it at that for now
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Monday, August 23, 2010
Meeting Summary, Launceston August 22
Strange meeting with hardly anything out wide doing much all night, a lot of horses also got beaten a very long way so a few doubts as a true form reference going forward
Blackbookers from meeting
Denvers Boy
Peace Chief
Harley Fella
Barooga Billy
Binabelle
Flight To Mikinos
Drive of the night
Todd Rattray - Melman, some say its easy to drive leaders but he rated it perfectly going quick enough to not cop pressure and then kicked for home at the perfect time
Best performance
Flight To Mikinos - not many horses run a sub 43 lead time and survive late, he managed to destroy his rivals at the end though
Carve up of the night
Harleken Wized - started at $26 but was one/one on the back of a $2.20 fav who was certain to take it into the race and the driver (Shelley Barnes) decides to take off at the 1200m mark in a 30.1 quarter to get the death seat. Not surprisingly tired to run last. Amazing decision though
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.4, lead time 5.3 (average), first half 61.2, last half 59.2
Best horse drew to lead in mile race, simple as that
Ashkalini (1st) - Good drive by Todd as well running even quarters with main dangers drawn out the back which made it difficult for them to work into the race. See tons of drivers with the mentality that when they lead the slower they go the better and that is a total crock
Denvers Boy (2nd) - super run, out wide and miles off leader (and winner) at 1200 with last 3 qtrs in 30.4, 30.1 and 29.1. He is certain to win again soon when drawn better
The Detonator (3rd) - much improved run, beat 4th horse by 10 metres which is usually a decent form reference so may go on with it now
Charlie Grattan (4th) - boxed on okay again at big odds, lacks the dash to win but will continue to be around the mark
Cindys Babe (5th) - draw killed its chances as lacks the speed to come wide, still boxed on okay and pay to follow when draws better
The rest all got beaten a very long way
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 46.0 (slow), first half 62.2, last half 60.1
Winner just too classy, got soft lead (46 lead time is walking) and average sections after that. All 2,3,4,5 placed horses went about the same
Julias Song (1st) - would call the win workmanlike instead of impressive. Only ran home in 60.1 and never broke 30 for any qtr but never looked in doubt so hard to guage what she could have run if pressed
Balencia (2nd) - usual honest race, always struggles to win with lack of high speed but tries her guts out
Alma Grant (3rd) - given the sectionals was entitled to do a tad more but still fair
Sanreos (4th) - pretty similar to Balencia, tries hard but lack of speed means its always difficult when drawn badly
Doves Patch (5th) - did enough to show why she has been supported in previous races
Those 5 finished way ahead of the rest
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.6, lead time 5.1 (quickish), first half 62.0, last half 58.8
First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race, all of 3,4,5,6,7 were fair. Rest pretty average
Cardinal Tucker (1st) - showed surprising gatespeed and once he led was always going to be very hard to run down. Well deserved win and will win more if can show that speed again
Peace Chief (2nd) - super run again, is his own worst enemy currently and will win shortly
Anoptomist (3rd) - well driven and best run inages
Willie Winalot (4th) - hard to make ground from the back in 58.8 half but kept coming, given a better draw can win shortly
Cardinal Dreamer (5th) - very similar to Willie Winalot
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.4, lead time 44.3 (average), first half 62.7, last half 60.3
Strange race, winner brained them yet sectionals were just fair and a lot of horses got beaten a long way
Harley Fella (1st) - good tough win, did more work than anything and cleared out
Currynroses (2nd) - every hope but no match for winner
Prettyboytoby (3rd) - got buried on the pegs but was entitled to run home a tad better
Hydehurst Boy (last) - prepared to ignore as caused false start then was gone a long way from home to be beaten 75 metres so obviously wasn't there to race
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 44.0 (better than average), first half 63.0, last half 60.2
Strangely run race, winner got the perfect run. Have doubts about it as a formline race though given the way it was run
Jet Black Flyer (1st) - every possible, got out at top of straight and they staggered home in 30.4 so was a tad flattered. Did however get used a bit early on so was some merit in the win and did win easily on line
Special Gallenti (2nd) - pretty good run given that ran a decent lead time then got no peace from the 1200. One to follow if drawn to lead
Barooga Billy (5th) - handed up death at the 1200 to a $26 pop who was never going to take him into the race. Then resented racing between horses and galloped back to last and flew home again in the straight. Should have bolted in
Saab Quality (6th) - proved he is a front of the field horse as been average nearly every time he has drawn 2nd row
Flying Jasper (7th) - every possible hope and just battled late at first Tassie start
Boozy Rouge (8th) - did a bit wrong but run was just fair
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6 - 2YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.03.4, lead time 5.4 (slowish), first half 65.2, last half 58.2
Slowly run and leader dominated but thought the first 3 went as well as each other
Brezhnev Leis (1st) - first glimpse of form this time in, was strong to the line as well and last 800 was okay
Iden Noshot (2nd) - driven cold and did well to get within 3 metres coming wide in 58.2 half
Hamish Sanz (3rd) - sat leaders back and took ages to wind up so may do better driven aggressively
Guernica (4th) - very good gatespeed to lead but entitled to find more given the soft run
Binabelle (7th) - galloped twice as fav, was actually still bolting at the 300 when galloped for the 2nd time so can certainly win next start despite now being ODM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - C4-C5, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 42.5 (super fast), first half 64.2, last half 58.8
Winner just smashed them (3rd horse beaten 28 metres), 2nd horse good and rest pretty average
Flight To Mikinos (1st) - exceptionally quick lead time then just left them for dead at the 400, he is just about unbeatable when he leads
Murillo Bromac (2nd) - return to form, beat 3rd horse by 15 metres so pay to follow
Topup (3rd) - not going as well as he was a month ago
Loaded Franco (8th) - disgraceful run on paper but too bad to be true, if she was beaten 10m after sitting leaders back I would say she was disappointing but to be beaten 40m means something was obviously amiss
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 5.5 (slow), first half 62.3, last half 59.4
Leader dominated mile race, first four all decent runs and can't say much for the rest
Melman (1st) - good gatespeed to lead, got left alone and well driven to score
Safina Leis (2nd) - every hope, thought she should have won given her run and the sectionals
Sing And Dance (3rd) - continues to overrace when used early and have nothing left late, heaps better when driven cold. Still only beaten 2.8 metres so forgive run
El Jays Modeena (4th) - went as well as the first 3 over the line, might bob up at odds soon
Blackbookers from meeting
Denvers Boy
Peace Chief
Harley Fella
Barooga Billy
Binabelle
Flight To Mikinos
Drive of the night
Todd Rattray - Melman, some say its easy to drive leaders but he rated it perfectly going quick enough to not cop pressure and then kicked for home at the perfect time
Best performance
Flight To Mikinos - not many horses run a sub 43 lead time and survive late, he managed to destroy his rivals at the end though
Carve up of the night
Harleken Wized - started at $26 but was one/one on the back of a $2.20 fav who was certain to take it into the race and the driver (Shelley Barnes) decides to take off at the 1200m mark in a 30.1 quarter to get the death seat. Not surprisingly tired to run last. Amazing decision though
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 1 - C0, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.4, lead time 5.3 (average), first half 61.2, last half 59.2
Best horse drew to lead in mile race, simple as that
Ashkalini (1st) - Good drive by Todd as well running even quarters with main dangers drawn out the back which made it difficult for them to work into the race. See tons of drivers with the mentality that when they lead the slower they go the better and that is a total crock
Denvers Boy (2nd) - super run, out wide and miles off leader (and winner) at 1200 with last 3 qtrs in 30.4, 30.1 and 29.1. He is certain to win again soon when drawn better
The Detonator (3rd) - much improved run, beat 4th horse by 10 metres which is usually a decent form reference so may go on with it now
Charlie Grattan (4th) - boxed on okay again at big odds, lacks the dash to win but will continue to be around the mark
Cindys Babe (5th) - draw killed its chances as lacks the speed to come wide, still boxed on okay and pay to follow when draws better
The rest all got beaten a very long way
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - C1-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.03.1, lead time 46.0 (slow), first half 62.2, last half 60.1
Winner just too classy, got soft lead (46 lead time is walking) and average sections after that. All 2,3,4,5 placed horses went about the same
Julias Song (1st) - would call the win workmanlike instead of impressive. Only ran home in 60.1 and never broke 30 for any qtr but never looked in doubt so hard to guage what she could have run if pressed
Balencia (2nd) - usual honest race, always struggles to win with lack of high speed but tries her guts out
Alma Grant (3rd) - given the sectionals was entitled to do a tad more but still fair
Sanreos (4th) - pretty similar to Balencia, tries hard but lack of speed means its always difficult when drawn badly
Doves Patch (5th) - did enough to show why she has been supported in previous races
Those 5 finished way ahead of the rest
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.00.6, lead time 5.1 (quickish), first half 62.0, last half 58.8
First 2 horses clearly the best runs in race, all of 3,4,5,6,7 were fair. Rest pretty average
Cardinal Tucker (1st) - showed surprising gatespeed and once he led was always going to be very hard to run down. Well deserved win and will win more if can show that speed again
Peace Chief (2nd) - super run again, is his own worst enemy currently and will win shortly
Anoptomist (3rd) - well driven and best run inages
Willie Winalot (4th) - hard to make ground from the back in 58.8 half but kept coming, given a better draw can win shortly
Cardinal Dreamer (5th) - very similar to Willie Winalot
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - C2-C3, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.4, lead time 44.3 (average), first half 62.7, last half 60.3
Strange race, winner brained them yet sectionals were just fair and a lot of horses got beaten a long way
Harley Fella (1st) - good tough win, did more work than anything and cleared out
Currynroses (2nd) - every hope but no match for winner
Prettyboytoby (3rd) - got buried on the pegs but was entitled to run home a tad better
Hydehurst Boy (last) - prepared to ignore as caused false start then was gone a long way from home to be beaten 75 metres so obviously wasn't there to race
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - C1, 2200m, mile rate 2.02.3, lead time 44.0 (better than average), first half 63.0, last half 60.2
Strangely run race, winner got the perfect run. Have doubts about it as a formline race though given the way it was run
Jet Black Flyer (1st) - every possible, got out at top of straight and they staggered home in 30.4 so was a tad flattered. Did however get used a bit early on so was some merit in the win and did win easily on line
Special Gallenti (2nd) - pretty good run given that ran a decent lead time then got no peace from the 1200. One to follow if drawn to lead
Barooga Billy (5th) - handed up death at the 1200 to a $26 pop who was never going to take him into the race. Then resented racing between horses and galloped back to last and flew home again in the straight. Should have bolted in
Saab Quality (6th) - proved he is a front of the field horse as been average nearly every time he has drawn 2nd row
Flying Jasper (7th) - every possible hope and just battled late at first Tassie start
Boozy Rouge (8th) - did a bit wrong but run was just fair
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6 - 2YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.03.4, lead time 5.4 (slowish), first half 65.2, last half 58.2
Slowly run and leader dominated but thought the first 3 went as well as each other
Brezhnev Leis (1st) - first glimpse of form this time in, was strong to the line as well and last 800 was okay
Iden Noshot (2nd) - driven cold and did well to get within 3 metres coming wide in 58.2 half
Hamish Sanz (3rd) - sat leaders back and took ages to wind up so may do better driven aggressively
Guernica (4th) - very good gatespeed to lead but entitled to find more given the soft run
Binabelle (7th) - galloped twice as fav, was actually still bolting at the 300 when galloped for the 2nd time so can certainly win next start despite now being ODM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - C4-C5, 2200m, mile rate 2.01.1, lead time 42.5 (super fast), first half 64.2, last half 58.8
Winner just smashed them (3rd horse beaten 28 metres), 2nd horse good and rest pretty average
Flight To Mikinos (1st) - exceptionally quick lead time then just left them for dead at the 400, he is just about unbeatable when he leads
Murillo Bromac (2nd) - return to form, beat 3rd horse by 15 metres so pay to follow
Topup (3rd) - not going as well as he was a month ago
Loaded Franco (8th) - disgraceful run on paper but too bad to be true, if she was beaten 10m after sitting leaders back I would say she was disappointing but to be beaten 40m means something was obviously amiss
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - 3YO, 1680m, mile rate 2.01.8, lead time 5.5 (slow), first half 62.3, last half 59.4
Leader dominated mile race, first four all decent runs and can't say much for the rest
Melman (1st) - good gatespeed to lead, got left alone and well driven to score
Safina Leis (2nd) - every hope, thought she should have won given her run and the sectionals
Sing And Dance (3rd) - continues to overrace when used early and have nothing left late, heaps better when driven cold. Still only beaten 2.8 metres so forgive run
El Jays Modeena (4th) - went as well as the first 3 over the line, might bob up at odds soon
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Sunday Tips
Launceston
R1#6 Ashkalini
R2#3 Julias Song
R3#7 Cardinal Tucker
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#4 Barooga Billy
R6#1 Binabelle
R7#1 Loaded Franco
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Bet
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Value
R4#8 Harley Fella
$100 Quaddie for 100%
1,3,4,6,8
4
1,2,6,7
1,2,3,5,7
Full Launceston preview in following post
Don't have anything at Melton
Breeders Crown Finals Day is good to watch for enthusiasts but can be a dangerous punting day with a lot of money up for grabs a lot of drivers lose their heads. Also isn't a ton of value as a rule so I will only be mucking around. Would love to see Broadways Best win though as has had shocking luck with barriers in big races and finally gets one here. I have liked her from day 1 actually and had $400ew at $51 with TAB Sportsbet in the final 2 years ago when she led and was attacked all race including a 27 qtr down the back, straightened up 5 metres in front then hit the wall and I felt as if I had been "moosed". Still wonder what would have happened had she handed up to Ananz. I did walk off the track that day saying she was the one horse I would like to own out of all the stars that raced that day which got me laughed at but as they say even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally!
For those that don't know, "moosed" is a term used by American punters when something happens and they feel as if they have been fkd over big time - as in fkd in the a..e by a moose. It is a tad coarse (especially if you have ever seen the size of a moose in real life) but explains the feeling perfectly on occasions so I use the word all the time.
R1#6 Ashkalini
R2#3 Julias Song
R3#7 Cardinal Tucker
R4#8 Harley Fella
R5#4 Barooga Billy
R6#1 Binabelle
R7#1 Loaded Franco
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Bet
R8#7 Sing And Dance
Best Value
R4#8 Harley Fella
$100 Quaddie for 100%
1,3,4,6,8
4
1,2,6,7
1,2,3,5,7
Full Launceston preview in following post
Don't have anything at Melton
Breeders Crown Finals Day is good to watch for enthusiasts but can be a dangerous punting day with a lot of money up for grabs a lot of drivers lose their heads. Also isn't a ton of value as a rule so I will only be mucking around. Would love to see Broadways Best win though as has had shocking luck with barriers in big races and finally gets one here. I have liked her from day 1 actually and had $400ew at $51 with TAB Sportsbet in the final 2 years ago when she led and was attacked all race including a 27 qtr down the back, straightened up 5 metres in front then hit the wall and I felt as if I had been "moosed". Still wonder what would have happened had she handed up to Ananz. I did walk off the track that day saying she was the one horse I would like to own out of all the stars that raced that day which got me laughed at but as they say even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally!
For those that don't know, "moosed" is a term used by American punters when something happens and they feel as if they have been fkd over big time - as in fkd in the a..e by a moose. It is a tad coarse (especially if you have ever seen the size of a moose in real life) but explains the feeling perfectly on occasions so I use the word all the time.
Launceston odds and ratings
Race 1
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE scr
2 HES NO SAINT 17
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 15
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 3.5
8 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 WILLIE WINALOT 7
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 11
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #5 Scarlett Blaze returns to Tassie and hasn't been far away against some fair fields in Victoria so a bit of a watch, #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/8/10,12/5,11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
2 CANCELLARA 15
3 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
4 KEEN OPERATOR 6.5
5 NIBEBO scr
6 CURRYNROSES 6.5
7 TEEJAY FELLA scr
8 HARLEY FELLA 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #8 Harley Fella might be a touch of value and thought his 2 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 8/1/3,4/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 67
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB scr
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE scr
2 HES NO SAINT 17
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 15
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 11
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 3.5
8 PEACE CHIEF 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 21
10 WILLIE WINALOT 7
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 11
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #5 Scarlett Blaze returns to Tassie and hasn't been far away against some fair fields in Victoria so a bit of a watch, #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/8/10,12/5,11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
2 CANCELLARA 15
3 HYDEHURST BOY 3.5
4 KEEN OPERATOR 6.5
5 NIBEBO scr
6 CURRYNROSES 6.5
7 TEEJAY FELLA scr
8 HARLEY FELLA 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #8 Harley Fella might be a touch of value and thought his 2 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 8/1/3,4/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1) 67
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB scr
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Saturday Tips
Ballarat
R1#9 Savannah Way
Newcastle
R6#9 Cmon Harry
Globe Derby
R5#8 Bohemian Lombo (reckon 6,8 is a good quinella as well)
and in the gallops
Moonee Valley
R6#6 Morgan Dollar
R1#9 Savannah Way
Newcastle
R6#9 Cmon Harry
Globe Derby
R5#8 Bohemian Lombo (reckon 6,8 is a good quinella as well)
and in the gallops
Moonee Valley
R6#6 Morgan Dollar
Friday, August 20, 2010
Friday Tips
Reckon both of these are morals, smaller punters might want to take an all up which would net around $3.50 as reckon they will start at roughly 2.2 and 1.6 respectively
Melton
R4#9 Excel Stride
R6#1 Courage To Rule
Melton
R4#9 Excel Stride
R6#1 Courage To Rule
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)