Well isn't this a great meeting!! Being a tad sarcastic in case you didn't guess, just happens to follow on from the $1.6m card for the Breeders at Melton......
Gareth Rattray needs 4 winners to break the winners in a year record with 2 meetings left and I am struggling to see him driving one here to be honest but all will get some support simply due to that so might be some lay opportunities along the way
Race 1
1 OUR LAST KNIGHT 34
2 ROCK THE POCKET NZ 11
3 CHARLIE GRATTAN 21
4 DREAMON DONNY 41
5 THE DETONATOR 34
6 ASHKALINI 1.8
7 LINDYS TIME 51
8 MASTERAMA 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 TENT PEG 41
10 DEEJAY BROMAC 51
11 ROJEN ALICASTREOS (Em 1)
12 CINDYS BABE 5
13 DENVERS BOY 7
Not much between the 3 favs here ability wise but over the mile trip and with 2 of them drawn out the back it tips the scales in favour of the filly #6 Ashkalini who should settle down well ahead of her main dangers. Tends to race at her best when driven quietly but over this trip she should push forward and might even find the front and if she did would be nearly impossible to run down. #12 Cindys Babe is screaming out to win a race and would actually be my top tip from a better gate but the draw makes it tougher and #13 Denvers Boy bolted in here 2 starts back then was off the track in a 1.59 race last week and battled on well so despite the draw is still a winning hope. One of that trio should definitely win with #2 Rock The Pocket the next best who had every possible hope against Denvers Boy last time but was left for dead in the straight however the draw gives him a place hope again. Also saw #3 Charlie Grattan run a cheeky race last time and is a good first four hope in this
Ratings 6/12/13/2/3
Race 2
1 LADY ELEANOR 34
2 MOIRA KITE 67
3 JULIAS SONG NZ 1.4
4 BIG TOWN BABE 34
5 ALMA GRANT 6
6 REAL RESERVE 101
7 DAVPASS 101
8 BALENCIA 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 DOVES PATCH NZ 15
10 SANREOS 21
#3 Julias Song looks very well placed here, has had 7 runs in Australia and never finished further back than 2nd and recently led all the way and finished off in 56.8 at Melton which would put this lot to the sword. There is a little bit of speed under her but still should work to the front and win. #5 Alma Grant won well last time when perfectly driven but did come 3 wide in a 58.4 final half so plenty of merit in the win and looms as the danger if the fav is going to get rolled. #9 Doves Patch obviously has ability as keeps being well supported but she keeps getting it wrong breaking at previous 3 runs and finishing last each time. If she puts it together though is a definite place hope. Both #8 Balencia and #10 Sanreos are one paced types who will run honest races but with their lack of high speed and bad draws they are place hopes only. Of the rest, #1 Lady Eleanor didn't have much luck last time and if trailed the fav could slipstream into a place and #4 Big Town Babe was going to place last time when broke in the straight so a rough place chance again
Ratings 3/5/9/8,10/1/4
Race 3
1 SURPRISE PURCHASE 5
2 HES NO SAINT 21
3 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 51
4 INCHBYINCH 21
5 SCARLETT BLAZE 101
6 LOADED BOMBER 67
7 CARDINAL TUCKER 4
8 PEACE CHIEF 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ANOPTOMIST 17
10 WILLIE WINALOT 6
11 MERLIN BROMAC NZ 8
12 CARDINAL DREAMER 7
Pretty tough race to sort out with a quite even field of 3 year olds, have settled on the honest #7 Cardinal Tucker who has run very well behind a couple of smart ones at past couple, the draw is a concern here but definitely will not shirk the task. #1 Surprise Purchase always runs his best races in front and draws to get that role here so should get his chance if good enough. #8 Peace Chief has plenty of ability but manners let him down at times but on best behaviour would go close also. Both #10 Willie Winalot and #12 Cardinal Tucker were knocked over in the same race last week so totally ignore the runs and given the right trip in transit here can certainly feature. #11 Merlin Bromac is first up in Tassie and a watch but always raced best in Victoria when drawn to use his gatespeed and race handy so draw makes it tough. #9 Anoptimist may sneak a place by following the pegs, #2 Hes No Saint has been going okay against weaker class and #4 Inchbyinch is no star but honest
Ratings 7/1,8/10,12/11/2,4,9
Race 4
1 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
2 CANCELLARA 17
3 HYDEHURST BOY 4
4 KEEN OPERATOR 8
5 NIBEBO 51
6 CURRYNROSES 8
7 TEEJAY FELLA 5
8 HARLEY FELLA 8
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 21
10 BAD BOY VINNY 26
Dead set raffle to start the quaddie not made any easier by the barrier draw. #7 Teejay Fella might be a touch of value and thought all his 3 runs since a spell have been very good, despite the draw I reckon he will be right in the thick of the finish. #1 Prettyboytoby is going as well as anything but this draw does him no favours with his lack of gatespeed so might get buried on the pegs, however if the runs come will be the one to beat. #3 Hydehurst Boy has led and won a couple of times recently and might be the pilot again so despite stepping up in class has to be included. #4 Keen Operator lacks a touch of zip but keeps going and bolted in last time and is always an EW hope, #8 Harley Fella is also going well but the draw might be the issue with him but only needs an ounce of luck to figure. #6 Currynroses must be included as well as hasn't run a bad race all this campaign. One of those races you wish you could bet in the run. Even #2, #9 and #10 wouldn't surprise if they found their best. Happy to leave #5 Nibebo out of calculations though
Ratings 7/1/3,4,8/6
Race 5
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 41
2 JET BLACK FLYER 15
3 SPECIAL GALLENTI 13
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 HARLEKEN WIZED 26
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 51
7 BOOZY ROUGE 11
8 TITLED 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 SAAB QUALITY 4.5
10 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA (Em 1)
11 FLYING JASPER 13
12 TOPOTHECLOUDS 21
13 LOLA BROMAC NZ 34
A lot revolves around the start of this race as if #4 Barooga Billy could roll to the front it would be nearly impossible for his main dangers to beat him from where they will settle down. I actually thought he was a shade disappointing last run prior to looking at the sectionals where he ran the quickest lead time of the night then finished off in 57.7 to just get touched off. Can also still win if he doesn't lead. #9 Saab Quality has been airborne at past 2 starts at 3yo level but this barrier does him no favours at all in first go against the older horses. If he goes up the fence, he will be 3 to 4 back and if he eases out early he will be 25 metres off his main danger and have to break the clock out wide in a fast last half. #7 Boozy Rouge was only a nose behind Barooga Billy last time but had a good trip and doubt he gets that type of run from here but still the 3rd pick. #11 Flying Jasper is a bit of a query with decent form around the Western Districts of Victoria but this is a better field than he has been up against but watch for any confident market moves. #3 Special Gallenti is a key to the race as has led at past 2 in easier races and whilst I envisage them handing up this time in this field he might just post the favourite, has to be included though as a good place hope if trails the fav but probably no hope if he retains the front. #2 Jet Black Flyer didn't have much luck first up and this is tougher but draws to receive every hope. Of the rest, both #5 Harleken Wized and #12 Topotheclouds are good place hopes and #13 Lola Bromac was well backed at first Tassie start and didn't flatter so will wait until she shows something
Ratings 4/9/7/2,3,11/5,12
Race 6
1 BINABELLE 4
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 6
3 HEARTHROB 34
4 DELTA DEE DEE 13
5 GUERNICA 34
6 HAMISH SANZ 4
7 IDEN NOSHOT 4.5
8 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 51
---------- Second Row ----------
9 NOELSGIRL 17
Another hard one to sort out, settled on #1 Binabelle purely because of the draw. Ran very well at first start behind some smart ones and draws to get every hope here. #6 Hamish Sanz lacks a bit of high speed but is very strong and will appreciate this easier class as hasn't been able to work into race at past couple. #7 Iden Noshot has plenty of ability but also does plenty wrong but on best form would go very close. #2 Brezhnev Leis has been a shade disappointing but gets a good draw here so will get its chance. That quartet rate clearly in front of the rest on exposed form but there is a watch on #4 Delta Dee Dee who went okay at the trials and #9 Noelsgirl who has galloped at both runs but been in the market so obviously has ability
Ratings 1/6/7/2/4,9
Race 7
1 LOADED FRANCO 2.8
2 MI MADEMOISELLE 8
3 KING ALBERT 7
4 OUR ZELLWEGER NZ scr
5 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 3.5
6 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 15
7 TOPUP 6
8 SECRET RENDEZVOUS ($5,000) 21
---------- Second Row ----------
9 ROCK AND RUN ($5,000) 101
10 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) 34
Yet another tricky race with #1 Loaded Franco the top tip but the barrier worries me a tad as isn't possessed with a ton of gatespeed but is going very well and should win with any luck but not a good value betting proposition. #5 Flight To Mikinos has gone very well at past 2 starts after soft runs but has proven that he can make his own luck in the past. #7 Topup has beaten better than these recently but is an opportunist type and might struggle a tad from this draw. #3 King Albert has run some cheeky races at big odds lately and looks quite well suited here so might be the value and #2 Mi Mademoiselle also ran okay at first start for new stable and does have gatespeed so if got to pegs first would be a chance. #6 Murillo Bromac is next best but has been a little disappointing of late. Of the remainder, #8 Secret Rendezvous is a place hope only from this draw after a couple of average performances
Ratings 1/5/7/3/2/6/8
Race 8
1 MELMAN 8
2 TARA LASSIE 34
3 SARAH ROLAND 34
4 ARKABE JEWEL 8
5 ROSARIUM 26
6 SAFINA LEIS 4
7 SING AND DANCE 1.8
8 EL JAYS MODEENA 15
#7 Sing And Dance has been a bit of a bridesmaid of late but in her defence has chased home some handy ones and this is much easier. Will probably go back from the draw but the small field suits and really should win. #6 Safina Leis has been in strong races as well lately and will also appreciate the drop in grade and is the main danger. #4 Arkabe Jewel has been honest of late but was clearly beaten by Sing And Dance latst start so can;t see him turning the tables but still a top place hope. #1 Melman is a query as resumes from a long spell and has gone okay at the trials, did disappoint at last campaign but certainly has ability when right so watch any confident betting moves. #8 El Jays Modeena is also a good place hope and #4 Rosarium has only been average at the trials but is a half sister to top Tassie mare Shez Ryleymak
Ratings 7/6/1,4/8
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Sunday Tips
Hobart - all races
R1#4 Iden Justasmyrk
R2#6 Winewomenandsong
R3#1 Lugovoi Leis
R4#4 Topotheclouds
R5#1 Still Royal
R6#11 Biggernbettermax
R7#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#2 Kristins Niadh
R9#11 Sing And Dance
R10#1 Sweetchillifilly
Best Bet - R6#11 Biggernbettermax
Best Bolter - R2#4 Dusty Kalena
Quaddie
Reckon this gets it
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
going to spend $100 and take
1,4
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
$48 = 50%
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,8
$48 = 50%
1,4
1
8,11
8
$4 = 100%
R1#4 Iden Justasmyrk
R2#6 Winewomenandsong
R3#1 Lugovoi Leis
R4#4 Topotheclouds
R5#1 Still Royal
R6#11 Biggernbettermax
R7#8 Cosmic Under Fire
R8#2 Kristins Niadh
R9#11 Sing And Dance
R10#1 Sweetchillifilly
Best Bet - R6#11 Biggernbettermax
Best Bolter - R2#4 Dusty Kalena
Quaddie
Reckon this gets it
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
going to spend $100 and take
1,4
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,4,5,6,7,8
$48 = 50%
1,2,4,5,10,11
1,2,3,9
8,11
1,8
$48 = 50%
1,4
1
8,11
8
$4 = 100%
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Hobart preview, Sunday August 15
Still have 2 races to complete but should be finished at some stage today
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 3.5
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN scr
3 INNASBROOK 4.5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3.5
5 SAAB QUALITY 3.5
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 201
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 201
10 MASTERAMA 201
Extremely difficult race to start the evening with multiple winning hopes and it all comes down to how it is run. For that reason and purely on my speed map, I have opted for the dour #4 Iden Justasmyrk as top pick who was soundly beaten by Saab Quality last week but reckon he might roll to the front and always grows a leg in that role. His best form however has been when driven by Nat Emery so the fact she isn't driving sours my confidence a tad but still goes on top. #1 Ashkalini returned to racing in slashing style versus her own age and sex and despite taking on the boys here is going to get a gun trip. #5 Saab Quality was awesome demolishing a similar field last week and is sure to go forward and make his own luck again but its worth noting the last time he sat outside Justasmyrk he was clearly held but does get Gareth on this time. It shows the depth of this race in that I haven't mentioned #3 Innasbrook as yet who has been very good winning both starts since a let up but has found the front both times and doubt he can lead here and might struggle to beat these if he doesn't lead. Of the rest, #7 Denvers Boy was heavily backed and bolted in last week by 12 metres but this is much stronger and from the draw I rate him a place prospect only. No confidence in the race at all though as evidenced by my market with the top 4 picks very even, #7 a clear 5th pick and that all of #6, #8, #9 and #10 are totally outclassed and be gobsmacked if any of them ran in the first four
Ratings 4/1,5/3/7
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 13
9 POKER STORM 7
Another hard race to sort out and have settled on the well bred #6 Winewomenandsong who I know was lucky to win his only start and did get a perfect trip but there were also plenty of positives in the win. Its easy to say he only ran past an extremely unlucky Quastor Centurion who must have lost 40 metres after getting knocked over but don't overlook the fact he finished off in 28.8 and also ran past Semose Twenty who would be a huge chance in this. Don't know much about its gatespeed but still happy to have him on top. The state's leading trainer Phillip Ford also has 2 runners resuming from a spell who both won their previous race before the break in #5 Odins Dragon Rider and #7 Lauras Happy Time which makes it almost impossible to sort out as neither has trialled publicly but both have to be kept extremely safe. #9 Poker Storm was disappointing last time but may go better driven cold as in previous runs, #8 Smokin Mustard had good form earlier in the year but form has tapered off lately but should get a cheap run. #2 Brezhnev Leis was just fair first up but has a better draw here and gets Gareth so might improve. Honestly cannot dismiss any runner totally with even #4 Dusty Kalena who has run last and 2nd last at his 2 runs having a flukers chance as the runs actually haven't been too bad. Good race to stay out of in my opinion
Ratings 6/5,7/9/2,8/4/field
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 6
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 26
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 34
7 FORTY TWO GRAND scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 4.5
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
Tricky little race this and whilst I think #1 Lugovoi Leis will win I can see him being ridiculous odds due to a combination of barrier 1, Gareth driving, good numerical form, small field but still have to tip him even if backing him is another matter. When laying short odds, I don't want any question marks and there are a few with Lugovoi as despite leading all the way 2 starts back his best runs have always been when driven with cover and despite it being late in the year, he is still a 3yo taking on some very seasoned horses. He was also clearly beaten by a couple of runners in this field at his last start as a $2.0 favourite but it was a funnily run race and he drew barrier 12 on that occasion so don't read too much into that formline. So whilst I think he wins, I wouldn't be rushing in. #8 Flight To Mikinos is another 3yo who draws to trail the fav and if there are any chinks in the armour will be in the right place to strike. #3 Teejay Fella has been very good at both runs since a spell and is a legitimate winning hope here. #9 Twograndahand is an opportunist type who can figure if the race is run to suit and both #5 Little Vance Lot and #7 Forty Two Grand are going okay but will need luck from their draws if they are to figure as winning hopes. Geez I get those 2 horses mixed up (Forty Two Grand and Twograndahand) and they always seem to be in the same race every week just to make it tougher. Of the rest, #4 Toucha Revenge would be some hope on best form so include in exotics
Ratings 1/8/3/9/5,7/4
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 3.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1) 26
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
11 SAFE AND SMART 7
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ scr
#4 Topotheclouds has form around some very good horses but is becoming a bit of a professional bridesmaid of late which is a concern. Has been perfectly driven at past few and has looked the winner every time but failed to finish off so is hard to back with any confidence especially when combined with the fact he is infinitely better with a sit despite having good gatespeed. Still have him on top here though as he only got beaten 3 metres in a 57.7 last half at previous run and nothing else in the race has been breaking the minute for the run home. #1 Hydehurst Boy was very good leading throughout first up after copping mid race pressure and pretty plain last time when driven off the speed and didn't run on when they only ran home in 62 so it depends which one turns up as to his chances. Maybe he is just a leader. #11 Safe And Smart is very dour but will be around the mark somewhere but reckon his lack of high speed makes him a place prospect only. #10 Cullens Count is another best suited to a front row draw but going okay and a definite place prospect. Both #2 Bertils Rocket and #5 Pearlsfromheaven are opportunist types who need the right run to figure but could definitely surprise if they did. Can't see anything else winning the race but #8 Lady Eleanor draws to follow the pegs so might sneak a place
Ratings 4/1/11/10/2,5/8
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 3
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 5.5
3 NEW YORK FELLA 6
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 21
12 CRASH CART 34
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
#1 Still Royal was very impressive winning in Launceston last time after working in the run then racing away in the straight in a 58.7 final half. This is a bit tougher and the run to the first corner becomes ultra important to his chances with some speed outside him in #3 and #6. Still reckon he will kick through and retain the front and if he does is clearly the one to beat. #2 Prettyboytoby has had no luck at all recently but thats the life of a sit/sprint horse as he must be driven for luck, this is his best draw in ages though and therefore should settle much closer than usual and be right in the finsh. #3 New York Fella has returned to something like his best at past couple and if he managed to lead would be mighty hard to toss but still some hope if he didn't. #9 Thabela Brioso won well last time but this is much harder but still some hope. The rest are all quite even and all could run into a placing without totally surprising. Think Broughton may be under the odds after its last win when was driven beatifully to not go around a horse from a similar draw but runs like that don't occur too often
Ratings 1/2/3/9/field
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 17
6 DAYTIME JERRY 11
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 11
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
#11 Biggernbettermax has disappointed a couple of times being held up for a late crack at them but be very surprised if he isn't put into the race earlier this time as it is a drop in grade compared to those runs and did win like a good horse 2 runs back. #8 Willie Winalot is no star but tries hard and has chased home some good ones recently and whilst the draw does him no favours is sure to appreciate the drop in class. Reckon one of that pair will win but concede some hope to #1 Ark Raid who was perfectly driven to place last time and should get a good trip this time, #10 Cardinal Dreamer ran 2nd to Saturday Nights a couple of runs back so would be right in the mix with a repeat of that but did enjoy a gun run that night and both #4 King Of Jewels and #6 Daytime Jerry looked disappointing on face value last start but the bolter of the field pulled 3 wide in front of them at the 500 and got in their way so prepared to overlook those runs and Daytime Jerry also carried a flat tyre. #5 Inchbyinch and #10 Loaded Bomber fought out a very average race last time and will find his a lot tougher but maybe Inchbyinch could sneak a place with the right run
Ratings 11/8/1,4,6,10/5
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 4.5
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN scr
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6.5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 8
7 RONNIE RAT 13
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.5
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 26
#8 Cosmic Under Fire has to go on top as has been winning very similar races of late and the 20m maximum backmark in a lower assessed race actually means he meets most of these better off for beating them recently but still not a good thing by any means. The big thing in his favour is that he is versatile and can be driven in whatever manner is necessary given the tempo of the race. I am warming a little to the claimer #1 Waterloo Bay who is way up in class but is simply flying and gets a 20m lift on most of his rivals here, plus looks certain to lead so will definitely be including him as leaders in stands are always some hope. #4 Majestic Emperor has been very good at past couple but was beaten on his merits by the fav 2 starts back then got away with blue murder in front last time (47.6 lead time was laughable then a 34.6 first quarter) when dashed home to win so formline might be a tad suspect. Also cannot totally exclude any of #5 Gettysburgh Address, #6 Yuschenko Leis who was driven too aggressively last time or #7 Ronnie Rat who is a very good stand start horse. #10 Jilliby Rio was also a decent run at first run from a break so has place claims
Ratings 8/1/4/6/5/7/10
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 21
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 8
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4.5
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
#2 Kristins Niadh has run placings at past 4 starts behind the 2 best fillies in the state in Benediction and Klebnikova Leis and gets into a very winnable race here. She draws well, has gatespeed, should lead and this race is over the mile trip so she ticks a lot of boxes so is clearly the one to beat. #5 Stone Skipper has quite similar formlines and it is only the barrier draw that leads me to favour Kristins Niadh. One of those two should win on exposed form but a bit of a watch on #3 Noelsgirl who was well supported at only run but got it wrong and went for a spell, she resumes here without a trial but is an obvious watch. #4 Sunrise Lady has been okay at both starts to date and whilst I doubt she can trouble the favs is a must for exotics as is #8 Flashy Icon who has also gone okay in both starts so far. #1 Rosie Halo and #9 Guernica have been respectable at the trials so come into the mix for exotics as well
Ratings 2/5/3?/4,8/field
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 6
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 2.8
11 SING AND DANCE 3.5
Pretty light on for chances this race and have settled on #11 Sing And Dance to topple the likely favourite in #10 Artifice. They met in the same race 2 weeks ago and whilst Artifice beat Sing And Dance home, the latter pulled her head off in the run. Will obviously be given a quiet time early from this gate so should settle better and have a better kick left at the finish. #10 Artifice has been slightly disappointing at both runs this time in despite winning here last start, she has led and walked as an odds on fav in both runs and found little first up then had a dream run in front and just held off #7 Arkabe Jewel last time so would want better odds than she is going to be from this draw despite the average field. #2 Modern Lobell ran her best race in ages last start and if she found the front here which is a distinct chance she would be right in the mix given a repeat performance. #7 Arkabe Jewel got very close to Artifice last start but had a cosy run and a tad concerned with this draw but will be in the finish somewhere with any luck. That quartet look clearly better than the rest with #3 Taspacedotcom being next best as has been trialling fairly as has #4 Auntyliz but she hasn't produced anything of note at the races as yet
Ratings 11/10/2/7/3
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.2
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ scr
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 26
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
7 MOIRA KITE 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 21
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Looks a good race for #1 Sweetchillifilly but keep in mind she has only won 4 races from 83 starts and been placed on 26 occasions so not a great strike rate. She also hasn't won for 21 starts and been placed 7 times since her last win but Gareth has driven her 8 times in that period for 6 placings so obviously has some affinity with her and jumps on again here. She should lead and provided nothing silly happens should get a soft run given the class of field and if that happens there shouldn't be any excuses. The main and possibly only danger appears to be #6 Special Gallenti who I thought ran very well last time getting attacked in front and only being beaten 6 metres in a 1.59 rate and whilst I can't see him crossing the pole here he will still run a race. #4 Unrivalled has been terribly disappointing recently but did go a touch better last time and should get a good trip from this gate. The query runner is #10 Chanceabet who resumes for a new stable with atrocious form but he does have plenty of ability when right so keep tabs on the market for any confidence. The rest are simply not going well enough to win a race but due to the nature of the field they could all sneak into the latter placings somewhere
Ratings 1/6/4,10/field
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 3.5
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN scr
3 INNASBROOK 4.5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 3.5
5 SAAB QUALITY 3.5
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 15
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 201
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 201
10 MASTERAMA 201
Extremely difficult race to start the evening with multiple winning hopes and it all comes down to how it is run. For that reason and purely on my speed map, I have opted for the dour #4 Iden Justasmyrk as top pick who was soundly beaten by Saab Quality last week but reckon he might roll to the front and always grows a leg in that role. His best form however has been when driven by Nat Emery so the fact she isn't driving sours my confidence a tad but still goes on top. #1 Ashkalini returned to racing in slashing style versus her own age and sex and despite taking on the boys here is going to get a gun trip. #5 Saab Quality was awesome demolishing a similar field last week and is sure to go forward and make his own luck again but its worth noting the last time he sat outside Justasmyrk he was clearly held but does get Gareth on this time. It shows the depth of this race in that I haven't mentioned #3 Innasbrook as yet who has been very good winning both starts since a let up but has found the front both times and doubt he can lead here and might struggle to beat these if he doesn't lead. Of the rest, #7 Denvers Boy was heavily backed and bolted in last week by 12 metres but this is much stronger and from the draw I rate him a place prospect only. No confidence in the race at all though as evidenced by my market with the top 4 picks very even, #7 a clear 5th pick and that all of #6, #8, #9 and #10 are totally outclassed and be gobsmacked if any of them ran in the first four
Ratings 4/1,5/3/7
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 5
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 13
9 POKER STORM 7
Another hard race to sort out and have settled on the well bred #6 Winewomenandsong who I know was lucky to win his only start and did get a perfect trip but there were also plenty of positives in the win. Its easy to say he only ran past an extremely unlucky Quastor Centurion who must have lost 40 metres after getting knocked over but don't overlook the fact he finished off in 28.8 and also ran past Semose Twenty who would be a huge chance in this. Don't know much about its gatespeed but still happy to have him on top. The state's leading trainer Phillip Ford also has 2 runners resuming from a spell who both won their previous race before the break in #5 Odins Dragon Rider and #7 Lauras Happy Time which makes it almost impossible to sort out as neither has trialled publicly but both have to be kept extremely safe. #9 Poker Storm was disappointing last time but may go better driven cold as in previous runs, #8 Smokin Mustard had good form earlier in the year but form has tapered off lately but should get a cheap run. #2 Brezhnev Leis was just fair first up but has a better draw here and gets Gareth so might improve. Honestly cannot dismiss any runner totally with even #4 Dusty Kalena who has run last and 2nd last at his 2 runs having a flukers chance as the runs actually haven't been too bad. Good race to stay out of in my opinion
Ratings 6/5,7/9/2,8/4/field
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 1.9
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 6
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 26
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 34
7 FORTY TWO GRAND scr
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 4.5
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 11
Tricky little race this and whilst I think #1 Lugovoi Leis will win I can see him being ridiculous odds due to a combination of barrier 1, Gareth driving, good numerical form, small field but still have to tip him even if backing him is another matter. When laying short odds, I don't want any question marks and there are a few with Lugovoi as despite leading all the way 2 starts back his best runs have always been when driven with cover and despite it being late in the year, he is still a 3yo taking on some very seasoned horses. He was also clearly beaten by a couple of runners in this field at his last start as a $2.0 favourite but it was a funnily run race and he drew barrier 12 on that occasion so don't read too much into that formline. So whilst I think he wins, I wouldn't be rushing in. #8 Flight To Mikinos is another 3yo who draws to trail the fav and if there are any chinks in the armour will be in the right place to strike. #3 Teejay Fella has been very good at both runs since a spell and is a legitimate winning hope here. #9 Twograndahand is an opportunist type who can figure if the race is run to suit and both #5 Little Vance Lot and #7 Forty Two Grand are going okay but will need luck from their draws if they are to figure as winning hopes. Geez I get those 2 horses mixed up (Forty Two Grand and Twograndahand) and they always seem to be in the same race every week just to make it tougher. Of the rest, #4 Toucha Revenge would be some hope on best form so include in exotics
Ratings 1/8/3/9/5,7/4
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 3.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1) 26
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 9
11 SAFE AND SMART 7
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ scr
#4 Topotheclouds has form around some very good horses but is becoming a bit of a professional bridesmaid of late which is a concern. Has been perfectly driven at past few and has looked the winner every time but failed to finish off so is hard to back with any confidence especially when combined with the fact he is infinitely better with a sit despite having good gatespeed. Still have him on top here though as he only got beaten 3 metres in a 57.7 last half at previous run and nothing else in the race has been breaking the minute for the run home. #1 Hydehurst Boy was very good leading throughout first up after copping mid race pressure and pretty plain last time when driven off the speed and didn't run on when they only ran home in 62 so it depends which one turns up as to his chances. Maybe he is just a leader. #11 Safe And Smart is very dour but will be around the mark somewhere but reckon his lack of high speed makes him a place prospect only. #10 Cullens Count is another best suited to a front row draw but going okay and a definite place prospect. Both #2 Bertils Rocket and #5 Pearlsfromheaven are opportunist types who need the right run to figure but could definitely surprise if they did. Can't see anything else winning the race but #8 Lady Eleanor draws to follow the pegs so might sneak a place
Ratings 4/1/11/10/2,5/8
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 3
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 5.5
3 NEW YORK FELLA 6
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 21
12 CRASH CART 34
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
#1 Still Royal was very impressive winning in Launceston last time after working in the run then racing away in the straight in a 58.7 final half. This is a bit tougher and the run to the first corner becomes ultra important to his chances with some speed outside him in #3 and #6. Still reckon he will kick through and retain the front and if he does is clearly the one to beat. #2 Prettyboytoby has had no luck at all recently but thats the life of a sit/sprint horse as he must be driven for luck, this is his best draw in ages though and therefore should settle much closer than usual and be right in the finsh. #3 New York Fella has returned to something like his best at past couple and if he managed to lead would be mighty hard to toss but still some hope if he didn't. #9 Thabela Brioso won well last time but this is much harder but still some hope. The rest are all quite even and all could run into a placing without totally surprising. Think Broughton may be under the odds after its last win when was driven beatifully to not go around a horse from a similar draw but runs like that don't occur too often
Ratings 1/2/3/9/field
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 17
6 DAYTIME JERRY 11
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 11
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
#11 Biggernbettermax has disappointed a couple of times being held up for a late crack at them but be very surprised if he isn't put into the race earlier this time as it is a drop in grade compared to those runs and did win like a good horse 2 runs back. #8 Willie Winalot is no star but tries hard and has chased home some good ones recently and whilst the draw does him no favours is sure to appreciate the drop in class. Reckon one of that pair will win but concede some hope to #1 Ark Raid who was perfectly driven to place last time and should get a good trip this time, #10 Cardinal Dreamer ran 2nd to Saturday Nights a couple of runs back so would be right in the mix with a repeat of that but did enjoy a gun run that night and both #4 King Of Jewels and #6 Daytime Jerry looked disappointing on face value last start but the bolter of the field pulled 3 wide in front of them at the 500 and got in their way so prepared to overlook those runs and Daytime Jerry also carried a flat tyre. #5 Inchbyinch and #10 Loaded Bomber fought out a very average race last time and will find his a lot tougher but maybe Inchbyinch could sneak a place with the right run
Ratings 11/8/1,4,6,10/5
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 4.5
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 26
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN scr
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 6.5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 8
7 RONNIE RAT 13
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.5
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 26
#8 Cosmic Under Fire has to go on top as has been winning very similar races of late and the 20m maximum backmark in a lower assessed race actually means he meets most of these better off for beating them recently but still not a good thing by any means. The big thing in his favour is that he is versatile and can be driven in whatever manner is necessary given the tempo of the race. I am warming a little to the claimer #1 Waterloo Bay who is way up in class but is simply flying and gets a 20m lift on most of his rivals here, plus looks certain to lead so will definitely be including him as leaders in stands are always some hope. #4 Majestic Emperor has been very good at past couple but was beaten on his merits by the fav 2 starts back then got away with blue murder in front last time (47.6 lead time was laughable then a 34.6 first quarter) when dashed home to win so formline might be a tad suspect. Also cannot totally exclude any of #5 Gettysburgh Address, #6 Yuschenko Leis who was driven too aggressively last time or #7 Ronnie Rat who is a very good stand start horse. #10 Jilliby Rio was also a decent run at first run from a break so has place claims
Ratings 8/1/4/6/5/7/10
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 21
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 8
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4.5
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
#2 Kristins Niadh has run placings at past 4 starts behind the 2 best fillies in the state in Benediction and Klebnikova Leis and gets into a very winnable race here. She draws well, has gatespeed, should lead and this race is over the mile trip so she ticks a lot of boxes so is clearly the one to beat. #5 Stone Skipper has quite similar formlines and it is only the barrier draw that leads me to favour Kristins Niadh. One of those two should win on exposed form but a bit of a watch on #3 Noelsgirl who was well supported at only run but got it wrong and went for a spell, she resumes here without a trial but is an obvious watch. #4 Sunrise Lady has been okay at both starts to date and whilst I doubt she can trouble the favs is a must for exotics as is #8 Flashy Icon who has also gone okay in both starts so far. #1 Rosie Halo and #9 Guernica have been respectable at the trials so come into the mix for exotics as well
Ratings 2/5/3?/4,8/field
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 6
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 8
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 2.8
11 SING AND DANCE 3.5
Pretty light on for chances this race and have settled on #11 Sing And Dance to topple the likely favourite in #10 Artifice. They met in the same race 2 weeks ago and whilst Artifice beat Sing And Dance home, the latter pulled her head off in the run. Will obviously be given a quiet time early from this gate so should settle better and have a better kick left at the finish. #10 Artifice has been slightly disappointing at both runs this time in despite winning here last start, she has led and walked as an odds on fav in both runs and found little first up then had a dream run in front and just held off #7 Arkabe Jewel last time so would want better odds than she is going to be from this draw despite the average field. #2 Modern Lobell ran her best race in ages last start and if she found the front here which is a distinct chance she would be right in the mix given a repeat performance. #7 Arkabe Jewel got very close to Artifice last start but had a cosy run and a tad concerned with this draw but will be in the finish somewhere with any luck. That quartet look clearly better than the rest with #3 Taspacedotcom being next best as has been trialling fairly as has #4 Auntyliz but she hasn't produced anything of note at the races as yet
Ratings 11/10/2/7/3
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.2
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ scr
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 26
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 4
7 MOIRA KITE 21
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 21
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Looks a good race for #1 Sweetchillifilly but keep in mind she has only won 4 races from 83 starts and been placed on 26 occasions so not a great strike rate. She also hasn't won for 21 starts and been placed 7 times since her last win but Gareth has driven her 8 times in that period for 6 placings so obviously has some affinity with her and jumps on again here. She should lead and provided nothing silly happens should get a soft run given the class of field and if that happens there shouldn't be any excuses. The main and possibly only danger appears to be #6 Special Gallenti who I thought ran very well last time getting attacked in front and only being beaten 6 metres in a 1.59 rate and whilst I can't see him crossing the pole here he will still run a race. #4 Unrivalled has been terribly disappointing recently but did go a touch better last time and should get a good trip from this gate. The query runner is #10 Chanceabet who resumes for a new stable with atrocious form but he does have plenty of ability when right so keep tabs on the market for any confidence. The rest are simply not going well enough to win a race but due to the nature of the field they could all sneak into the latter placings somewhere
Ratings 1/6/4,10/field
Friday, August 13, 2010
Deja Vu all over again!!! Not in a good way
Further to a couple of earlier posts back in late May/early June regarding trainer/drivers, I just have to touch on it again after watching the semi final of the Breeders Crown where the favourite (Courage To Rule) was barbequed early in a lead time 4 seconds (50-60 metres) slower than the other heat by a couple of bolters - you guessed it, they were trainer/drivers and both finished tailed off. Their names are almost irrelevant as it happens every week but in this instance it was Geoff Martin on Bachelor Lombo and Norm Diebert Jr on Mach Wiper.
Its easy to look at my previous post and think I am talking through my pocket as I tipped the favourite but its getting beyond a joke and unless these cowboys are banned from group races at the very least then more and more punters will simply walk away.
The Breeders Crown is the richest race in Australia for 3yo horses and to see a major hope have his chances dashed by incompetence from competitors is hopefully the straw that breaks the camels back and forces HRV to take action but I won't hold my breath.
Here is one of my previous posts where I actually alluded to being very concerned that a race would be stuffed up by having non professional drivers involved and whilst my prediction was right back then, it didn't make me feel very good I can assure you when it happened in the Group 1 Vicbred Final
http://harnessingaliving.blogspot.com/2010/06/dont-say-you-werent-warned.html
Its easy to look at my previous post and think I am talking through my pocket as I tipped the favourite but its getting beyond a joke and unless these cowboys are banned from group races at the very least then more and more punters will simply walk away.
The Breeders Crown is the richest race in Australia for 3yo horses and to see a major hope have his chances dashed by incompetence from competitors is hopefully the straw that breaks the camels back and forces HRV to take action but I won't hold my breath.
Here is one of my previous posts where I actually alluded to being very concerned that a race would be stuffed up by having non professional drivers involved and whilst my prediction was right back then, it didn't make me feel very good I can assure you when it happened in the Group 1 Vicbred Final
http://harnessingaliving.blogspot.com/2010/06/dont-say-you-werent-warned.html
Friday Tip
Melton
R7#1 Courage To Rule, reckon he hands up tonight and gets the dream run. If you look through all his Australian runs his only below average runs have been when used early so can see him sprint laning here. Happy with 2.0 or better
R7#1 Courage To Rule, reckon he hands up tonight and gets the dream run. If you look through all his Australian runs his only below average runs have been when used early so can see him sprint laning here. Happy with 2.0 or better
MLB Bets
Just put a couple of MLB bets on for an interest as going to be up for a while. About to start in the next 20 mins
Rockies/Mets - under 7.5 runs @ 1.98
Boston Red Sox to win @ $1.96
Very small bets but find that it keeps me interested and mind active whilst doing some Harness form, used to bet pretty big on MLB actually but even though I won I felt that the time involved didn't warrant the result in the long run
Rockies/Mets - under 7.5 runs @ 1.98
Boston Red Sox to win @ $1.96
Very small bets but find that it keeps me interested and mind active whilst doing some Harness form, used to bet pretty big on MLB actually but even though I won I felt that the time involved didn't warrant the result in the long run
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Small change to the Tasmanian Carnival
The Tasmanian Pacing Club has changed the format of the $100,000 Tasmania Cup which will now be run under mobile conditions with a preferential barrier draw. The club cited betting turnover as the major reason but in my opinion it was a change that needed to be made anyway. Over the past few years, the race has only attracted minimal Grand Circuit class horses with the remainder of the field being comprised of standard Metropolitan class horses and if it was to retain its Group 1 status then that had to change. Plus with the race usually closely following the Victoria Cup it should allow a natural progression for more big guns to now head over Bass Strait and chase further riches and a Group 1 victory.
The full story is available via the TasRacing website:
http://www.tasracing.com.au/harness/news/latest_news/12896283
The meeting set down for the evening of Boxing Day is now a cracker with the Group 1 Tasmania Cup, the $50,000 George Johnson FFA for the mares and the $20,000 Tasmanian Guineas for the 3 year olds all being run on the program. It should ensure the meeting attracts a high percentage of the nations best open class pacers as well as the mares seeking black type in the George Johnson and a few might even bring a good 3yo with them with a $20,000 race on the card. It also follows on perfectly from the Launceston meeting the preceding week which has a $50,000 FFA (also a mobile start), a $20,000 mares race and a $20,000 3yo race on that card. There are also three $20,000 races at Devonport the week prior to the Launceston meeting including another for open class mares so if I had a good class mare then I would definitely be heading to Tassie early.
Might have to book some tickets and head home for a couple of weeks as looks certain to be some great racing.
I still wish they named one of the feature Tasmanian races in honour of the former champ Halwes, the $50,000 City of Launceston FFA run the week prior to the Tasmania Cup would be ideal in my opinion. The name Halwes is synonymous with greatness in Harness Racing right across the country so he deserves a race named in his honour that befits his ability and its something I would love to see. Just call the race "The Halwes" and the name itself will infer quality when participants simply see it in the calendar. Thats another story though and the main point of this post was to congratulate the powers that be in Tasmania for programming a very good fortnight of racing.
The full story is available via the TasRacing website:
http://www.tasracing.com.au/harness/news/latest_news/12896283
The meeting set down for the evening of Boxing Day is now a cracker with the Group 1 Tasmania Cup, the $50,000 George Johnson FFA for the mares and the $20,000 Tasmanian Guineas for the 3 year olds all being run on the program. It should ensure the meeting attracts a high percentage of the nations best open class pacers as well as the mares seeking black type in the George Johnson and a few might even bring a good 3yo with them with a $20,000 race on the card. It also follows on perfectly from the Launceston meeting the preceding week which has a $50,000 FFA (also a mobile start), a $20,000 mares race and a $20,000 3yo race on that card. There are also three $20,000 races at Devonport the week prior to the Launceston meeting including another for open class mares so if I had a good class mare then I would definitely be heading to Tassie early.
Might have to book some tickets and head home for a couple of weeks as looks certain to be some great racing.
I still wish they named one of the feature Tasmanian races in honour of the former champ Halwes, the $50,000 City of Launceston FFA run the week prior to the Tasmania Cup would be ideal in my opinion. The name Halwes is synonymous with greatness in Harness Racing right across the country so he deserves a race named in his honour that befits his ability and its something I would love to see. Just call the race "The Halwes" and the name itself will infer quality when participants simply see it in the calendar. Thats another story though and the main point of this post was to congratulate the powers that be in Tasmania for programming a very good fortnight of racing.
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