Just thought I would give a quick synopsis of this horse if anybody isn't familiar with him.
Unfortunately, I won't be a lot of help to be honest which has more to do with his racing style than ignorance on my part though. He is just a really hard horse to guage as hardly ever looks ultra impressive but is a real racehorse and whilst he never runs scintillating times you get the impression he could find plenty more if he had to. In a nutshell, its a bit of a guessing game as to whether he will or won't.
It isn't a strong lot of 2yo colts in Tassie this year to be honest and he is miles better than them winning 8 of 9 and being a tragedy beaten in the loss after being knocked over at the mile and losing 40 metres, then was 4 wide and 10 metres off them at the 400 and got beaten a metre with a 28.8 last quarter. He was also the only horse in the first 5 over the line who didn't follow the pegs home which added further merit to the run.
Forced to choose, I would doubt he has the tactical speed to beat the likes of Royal Verdict and Excel Stride in his semi, but I am loathe to pot him as he is a pure racehorse and I see plenty of them just keep stepping up to the plate even when the races get tougher whilst the speed horses go missing. He doesn't have blistering gatespeed so doubt he will lead but the one thing I am sure of is he won't be too far away at the end. Think about $8 is his right price so if better than that (and should be given the strength of the race) I will be having a little nibble.
Wouldn't be too concerned with Erin Hollaway driving either as has driven 30 plus winners this year (fair effort considering the amount of races on in Tassie) so she goes okay. Pretty similar to a lot of the female drivers in that a lot of horses get up on the steel and travel for her.
Not giving him a glowing endorsement but would be disappointed if he didn't qualify for the final and I wouldn't be totally surprised either if he did step up to the plate and surprise a few.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Hobart, Sunday August 15 - Initial Thoughts
Early markets after just looking at fields, will obviously make adjustments once I have a look at the form guide and replays but thought I would pop this up now as first instincts can normally be okay compared to "over-analysing" a race so might leave this as a separate post and start a new one for the full preview. Fields have only been out for 30 minutes actually so is obviously a very quick glimpse but be interested to see how it does
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 4
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 5
3 INNASBROOK 5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4
5 SAAB QUALITY 6
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 101
10 MASTERAMA 101
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 POKER STORM 6
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 2.2
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 4.5
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 21
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 51
7 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 6
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 21
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 4.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1)
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 8
11 SAFE AND SMART 6
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ 17
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 2.5
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 7
3 NEW YORK FELLA 7
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 17
12 CRASH CART 26
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 13
6 DAYTIME JERRY 13
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.8
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 9
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 21
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 15
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 RONNIE RAT 11
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 21
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 17
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 11
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 7
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 7
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 3
11 SING AND DANCE 3.8
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.5
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 17
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 5.5
7 MOIRA KITE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 26
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Race 1
1 ASHKALINI 4
2 BRIAN BUSTER BROWN 5
3 INNASBROOK 5
4 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 4
5 SAAB QUALITY 6
6 LILLANS GIRL 101
7 DENVERS BOY 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 67
9 LITTLEBITOFGLORY 101
10 MASTERAMA 101
Race 2
1 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 21
2 BREZHNEV LEIS 13
3 AWESOME BUDDY 26
4 DUSTY KALENA 17
5 ODINS DRAGON RIDER 6
6 WINEWOMENANDSONG NZ 3
7 LAURAS HAPPY TIME 5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SMOKIN MUSTARD 11
9 POKER STORM 6
Race 3
1 LUGOVOI LEIS 2.2
2 NOVEMBER TWENTY 34
3 TEEJAY FELLA 4.5
4 TOUCHA REVENGE 21
5 LITTLE VANCE LOT 15
6 PAUL ALBERT 51
7 FORTY TWO GRAND 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 6
9 TWOGRANDAHAND 21
Race 4
1 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
2 BERTILS ROCKET 11
3 PARADIGM GIRL 34
4 TOPOTHECLOUDS 4.5
5 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 11
6 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ (Em 1)
7 PADDY MY BOY 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 LADY ELEANOR 15
9 TITLED 41
10 CULLENS COUNT NZ 8
11 SAFE AND SMART 6
12 LISKENS GIFT 21
13 SPENDIT NZ 17
Race 5
1 STILL ROYAL 2.5
2 PRETTYBOYTOBY 7
3 NEW YORK FELLA 7
4 GUERRERO (Em 1)
5 BROUGHTON 13
6 PHANTOM JASPER 17
7 IM LE FREAK NZ 41
---------- Second Row ----------
8 PRINCE PLANET NZ 21
9 THABELA BRIOSO 9
10 BAYFIELD HIGH 15
11 CANCELLARA 17
12 CRASH CART 26
13 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA 101
Race 6
1 ARK RAID 9
2 RETURNTOSENDER 51
3 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
4 KING OF JEWELS 9
5 INCHBYINCH 13
6 DAYTIME JERRY 13
7 CRIMINAL LOCKDOWN 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 WILLIE WINALOT 4.5
9 LOADED BOMBER 34
10 CARDINAL DREAMER 8
11 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.8
Race 7
1 WATERLOO BAY ($5,000) 9
2 THE CROWD PLEASER 21
3 RAMBLIN CULLEN 15
4 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 5
5 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 7
7 RONNIE RAT 11
8 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 3
9 ALPINE ART NZ 51
10 JILLIBY RIO 21
Race 8
1 ROSIE HALO 17
2 KRISTINS NIADH 2
3 NOELSGIRL 11
4 SUNRISE LADY 17
5 STONE SKIPPER 4
6 IGNORANCE IS BLISS 26
7 MODERN ANGEL 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLASHY ICON 17
9 GUERNICA 26
10 GUN FILLY 26
Race 9
1 PRINCESS GANGSTER 21
2 MODERN LOBELL 7
3 TASPACEDOTCOM 17
4 AUNTYLIZ 34
5 TARA LASSIE 51
6 BLACKPORTNLACE 51
7 ARKABE JEWEL 7
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SARAH ROLAND 41
9 BE GOOD JENNA 26
10 ARTIFICE 3
11 SING AND DANCE 3.8
Race 10
1 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 2.5
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 8
3 OUR VILLAGE 34
4 UNRIVALLED 11
5 ULTIMATE HEIR 17
6 SPECIAL GALLENTI 5.5
7 MOIRA KITE 34
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FANTASY ROCKS 26
9 RED RIVER GEE GEE 17
10 CHANCEABET 11
11 ASHINAGA 21
12 MEANDPOP 34
Monday, August 9, 2010
The Perception of Value when Betting
This is something that took me ages to get my head around as it seems a logical assumption when betting that the better the price, the better the value. Sadly this is not true and is the sucker punch that floors most punters.
It was only on this forum actually that it really came home to roost for me when a regular contributor made comment (cheers Luck) that as punters we almost feel obligated to bet at major metro meetings and especially carnivals like the Melbourne Spring for the gallopers and Inter Dominion for the pacers. The fields have more depth which also leads to more open betting races but is this really value from a betting perspective? I now understand that it isn't.
One of the major reasons I succeed in Tasmania is because you can narrow the winning hopes in nearly every race to around 33% of runners so in a standard field of 11 or 12, you normally have a maximum of 4 winning hopes. Tassie form also has the benefit of horses coming through very similar formlines with only one race per week for each class on average so its quite easy to measure the form of one runner versus another which is a marked contrast to most other states. If we draw on the stats where I tip one horse in every race, I have tipped 52 winners from 103 races with an average winning price of exactly $3 which most people would deem as poor value but surely there has to be a value component added to the winning consistency which most overlook.
A lot of punters point to the spring carnival as the best time to bet due to the perceived value but is it really? I would envisage that it is a lot easier to back a winner at this time of the year where races have a number of stayers resuming who have no hope at the current distance and some runners who can't handle wet ground yet are running for their long term benefit. This narrows down the winning hopes considerably compared to say Derby Day where its every horses grand final and given the right run in transit most could win without totally surprising. Therefore, is there more value in backing one at $4 this week in a race with a maximum 5 chances or backing one on Derby Day at $8 in a field with 14 winning possibilities. I know which odds I would prefer long term.
It sure is "sexier" to say you backed the winner of the main race on the weekend but its a lot better feeling to win consistently and in the case of value when betting, the majority of the time less will actually mean more!
It was only on this forum actually that it really came home to roost for me when a regular contributor made comment (cheers Luck) that as punters we almost feel obligated to bet at major metro meetings and especially carnivals like the Melbourne Spring for the gallopers and Inter Dominion for the pacers. The fields have more depth which also leads to more open betting races but is this really value from a betting perspective? I now understand that it isn't.
One of the major reasons I succeed in Tasmania is because you can narrow the winning hopes in nearly every race to around 33% of runners so in a standard field of 11 or 12, you normally have a maximum of 4 winning hopes. Tassie form also has the benefit of horses coming through very similar formlines with only one race per week for each class on average so its quite easy to measure the form of one runner versus another which is a marked contrast to most other states. If we draw on the stats where I tip one horse in every race, I have tipped 52 winners from 103 races with an average winning price of exactly $3 which most people would deem as poor value but surely there has to be a value component added to the winning consistency which most overlook.
A lot of punters point to the spring carnival as the best time to bet due to the perceived value but is it really? I would envisage that it is a lot easier to back a winner at this time of the year where races have a number of stayers resuming who have no hope at the current distance and some runners who can't handle wet ground yet are running for their long term benefit. This narrows down the winning hopes considerably compared to say Derby Day where its every horses grand final and given the right run in transit most could win without totally surprising. Therefore, is there more value in backing one at $4 this week in a race with a maximum 5 chances or backing one on Derby Day at $8 in a field with 14 winning possibilities. I know which odds I would prefer long term.
It sure is "sexier" to say you backed the winner of the main race on the weekend but its a lot better feeling to win consistently and in the case of value when betting, the majority of the time less will actually mean more!
Breeders Crown Heats and Repechages - pros and cons
I just want to preface this post by saying that I fully understand the benefits offered by this series to both breeders and owners who are often overlooked in Harness Racing when decisions are made regarding the future of the caper so I completely support the principle of the series. The big drawback of the current format is that it does little for punters for a number of reasons and as I am a punter, that is what I will touch upon.
The races are a fair dinkum nightmare to bet on, they are usually run at a farcical pace, there is very little value betting wise and you also have to factor in that the primary objective for the majority of runners is to qualify for the next stage so they tend to get driven more conservatively than usual. There are also a few horses that have been in work a long time and some are in need of a spell but are kept in work purely because of the prizemoney so get some strange results on occasions.
I just captured a quick snapshot of the heats and repechages and the amount of odds on favourites involved was bordering on the ridiculous (and not including the 2 and 3 horse heats in this either). From a total of around 50 heats and repechages here are a list of the odds on favourites and how they performed:
these got beaten
Chariot King $1.80
Sushi Sushi $1.20
Ark De Jeanne $1.40
Artistic Rainbow $1.30
Farmersntradies $1.90
Lanercost $1.30
Stunin Girl $1.40
David Hercules $1.20
Attackamach $1.60
Veracity Red $1.80
Cuttheattitude $1.20
Morgan Abby $1.50
Art Shadow $1.90
these have all won
Sheezallattitude $1.20
Excel Stride $1.20
Aussie Made Lombo $1.04
Beach Melody $1.20
Lively Moth $1.30
Dee Devito $1.50
Royal Verdict $1.10
Revivalist $1.40
Miss Trickin Lombo $1.40
Remember El $1.30
Ninegrandsons $1.70
Tuhimata Glass $1.20
Rostevarren $1.30
General Bronski $1.70
Passions Promise $1.40
Lanercost $1.90
Most punters will agree though that Breeders Crown Finals day is one of the premier meetings on the calendar with plenty of value and some absolute stars invloved so we tolerate it on that front but most will give betting a wide berth until that day. Even semi final day is treachorous to bet on with the objective being to qualify for the rich final the following week.
Overall though, there are a lot more positives than negatives and I honestly cannot think of a better format to program it so definitely not potting the series and I for one can't wait for Grand Final day. Probably the only thing to improve the punting side would be to reduce the number of heats and therefore have stronger, more even fields but that in turn would lessen the return to owners and breeders and the series is primarily set up for them - hence the name, Breeders Crown.
The races are a fair dinkum nightmare to bet on, they are usually run at a farcical pace, there is very little value betting wise and you also have to factor in that the primary objective for the majority of runners is to qualify for the next stage so they tend to get driven more conservatively than usual. There are also a few horses that have been in work a long time and some are in need of a spell but are kept in work purely because of the prizemoney so get some strange results on occasions.
I just captured a quick snapshot of the heats and repechages and the amount of odds on favourites involved was bordering on the ridiculous (and not including the 2 and 3 horse heats in this either). From a total of around 50 heats and repechages here are a list of the odds on favourites and how they performed:
these got beaten
Chariot King $1.80
Sushi Sushi $1.20
Ark De Jeanne $1.40
Artistic Rainbow $1.30
Farmersntradies $1.90
Lanercost $1.30
Stunin Girl $1.40
David Hercules $1.20
Attackamach $1.60
Veracity Red $1.80
Cuttheattitude $1.20
Morgan Abby $1.50
Art Shadow $1.90
these have all won
Sheezallattitude $1.20
Excel Stride $1.20
Aussie Made Lombo $1.04
Beach Melody $1.20
Lively Moth $1.30
Dee Devito $1.50
Royal Verdict $1.10
Revivalist $1.40
Miss Trickin Lombo $1.40
Remember El $1.30
Ninegrandsons $1.70
Tuhimata Glass $1.20
Rostevarren $1.30
General Bronski $1.70
Passions Promise $1.40
Lanercost $1.90
Most punters will agree though that Breeders Crown Finals day is one of the premier meetings on the calendar with plenty of value and some absolute stars invloved so we tolerate it on that front but most will give betting a wide berth until that day. Even semi final day is treachorous to bet on with the objective being to qualify for the rich final the following week.
Overall though, there are a lot more positives than negatives and I honestly cannot think of a better format to program it so definitely not potting the series and I for one can't wait for Grand Final day. Probably the only thing to improve the punting side would be to reduce the number of heats and therefore have stronger, more even fields but that in turn would lessen the return to owners and breeders and the series is primarily set up for them - hence the name, Breeders Crown.
Long Range Betting - setting the scene
Lets just start by saying I have been badly burnt a couple of times by having long range bets but thought I might post a few things on here if I see a decent Green Book opportunity
Best example of being burnt is when I had $1000 on Maldivian @ $26 in the Caulfield Cup at the start of his campaign and was $3.50 fav come race day and I held $5000 @ $3.80 a couple of days prior to the race to green myself up nicely - or so I thought!! What happens is he plays up in the barriers and is a late scratching so my lay bet is voided and my original $1000 outlay is lost due to being an "all in" bet. I hadn't even thought of that scenario as I thought all that could happen was to win $12,000 if he won or $5000 if he lost. As it was, I lost $1000. The bloody thing could have tossed the jockey after 5 metres and I still collect $5000 but they managed to get me even when in a seemingly win/win situation.
Also had a couple of cracks at Safari at big odds for the Hunter Cup and Inter Dominion and was fav for both races the week of the finals then got put into a paddock next to Good Lookin Girl prior to the Hunter Cup and went off his tree and didn't eat or drink for 48 hours prior to the race and then he drew barrier 13 in the Inter Dominion final to go from a $3 pop to a $11 pop.
That still hasn't scared me off but I only do it now sparingly if I see what I deem plenty of value - still shake my head about that Maldivian bet though :)
Do currently have a few sports bets going
Spent $1200 on AFL at beginning of the season
Western Bulldogs $500 @ $7.50
Adelaide $300 @ $13
Collingwood $300 @ $13.0
Brisbane $100 @ $34
Adelaide and Brisbane are going a treat!! but Pies and Dogs are boxing on okay and might be able to use my position with them
Couple of other ones I still have running
Cincinnati Reds $100 @ $51 to win the National League in MLB (currently around $13 I think)
Buffalo Bills $1000 @ $1.91 to win less than 5.5 games (been off the map already this)
Won a fortune when Blacks A Fake won the Hobart Inter and also picked up $4000 by having an $80 outlay on Thomas Berdych at the beginning of Wimbledon by trading him off in the semi and the final so not all horror stories on this front for me. Was one of those lucky ones where you are in the right place at the right time as had just read Scott Ferguson's preview (Sportismadeforbetting) and he had him as the smokey in that quarter and it was the same quarter that Federer was in and Roger was trailing 2 sets to love and a break when I backed Berdych. Thought I had murdered it when Roger came back to win in the first round but was the right bet considering where he was at
Best example of being burnt is when I had $1000 on Maldivian @ $26 in the Caulfield Cup at the start of his campaign and was $3.50 fav come race day and I held $5000 @ $3.80 a couple of days prior to the race to green myself up nicely - or so I thought!! What happens is he plays up in the barriers and is a late scratching so my lay bet is voided and my original $1000 outlay is lost due to being an "all in" bet. I hadn't even thought of that scenario as I thought all that could happen was to win $12,000 if he won or $5000 if he lost. As it was, I lost $1000. The bloody thing could have tossed the jockey after 5 metres and I still collect $5000 but they managed to get me even when in a seemingly win/win situation.
Also had a couple of cracks at Safari at big odds for the Hunter Cup and Inter Dominion and was fav for both races the week of the finals then got put into a paddock next to Good Lookin Girl prior to the Hunter Cup and went off his tree and didn't eat or drink for 48 hours prior to the race and then he drew barrier 13 in the Inter Dominion final to go from a $3 pop to a $11 pop.
That still hasn't scared me off but I only do it now sparingly if I see what I deem plenty of value - still shake my head about that Maldivian bet though :)
Do currently have a few sports bets going
Spent $1200 on AFL at beginning of the season
Western Bulldogs $500 @ $7.50
Adelaide $300 @ $13
Collingwood $300 @ $13.0
Brisbane $100 @ $34
Adelaide and Brisbane are going a treat!! but Pies and Dogs are boxing on okay and might be able to use my position with them
Couple of other ones I still have running
Cincinnati Reds $100 @ $51 to win the National League in MLB (currently around $13 I think)
Buffalo Bills $1000 @ $1.91 to win less than 5.5 games (been off the map already this)
Won a fortune when Blacks A Fake won the Hobart Inter and also picked up $4000 by having an $80 outlay on Thomas Berdych at the beginning of Wimbledon by trading him off in the semi and the final so not all horror stories on this front for me. Was one of those lucky ones where you are in the right place at the right time as had just read Scott Ferguson's preview (Sportismadeforbetting) and he had him as the smokey in that quarter and it was the same quarter that Federer was in and Roger was trailing 2 sets to love and a break when I backed Berdych. Thought I had murdered it when Roger came back to win in the first round but was the right bet considering where he was at
Sunday summary and betting in every race update
Not happy with tipping tonight at all, did have a decent night financially but got a few races completely wrong. Just got lucky that my 2 best results betting wise won King Of Bling, Klebnikova Leis) plus picked up $500 with the quaddie so got bailed out a bit. Very annoyed that Klebnikova Leis drew inside the 2nd row as would have had a fair lash from ANY other gate but you can't unload if there are some IFs about a horse and there were such as would she get off the fence, etc so the bet amount was correct. Would have taken $1.50 at the bell though when she got off the pegs!
Still picked up 20% on turnover I suppose if outlaying the same amount on every race so not a complete disaster tipping wise
Couple of snippets
- I thought Barooga Billy was better than that
- The drive on Sky Tower was atrocious, looking back through his form he always goes best for Erin so hopefully she is back on next start
- Klebnikova Leis is a very good filly
- Barrie Rattray should retire from driving period and leave it to the boys
- Mile races are garbage to bet on
- Saab Quality should never, ever be driven in a sit/sprint capacity again
- Cindys Babe is going to win a race very shortly
Betting in every race update
Current as at August 8, 2010
Races 103
Winners 52
Return $156.68*
Profit $53.68
Strike Rate 50.4%
ROI 52.1%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
Further examining the data:
Leaders: 38
Winners: 30
Return: $79.48
Strike Rate 78.9%
ROI 107.7%
Non Leaders: 65
Winners: 22
Return: $77.20
Strike Rate 33.8%
ROI 18.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday August 8
Launceston
R1#1 Aapenon 2nd
R2#9 Doves Patch UNP
R3#1 Barooga Billy 3rd
R4#7 Biggernbettermax 3rd
R5#7 Sky Tower 2nd
R6#9 Klebnikova Leis 1st $3.20
R7#8 King Of Bling 1st $5.10
R8#10 Smart Pay 1st $3.90
R9#7 The Aces UNP
R10#3 Rock The Pocket 2nd
Invest $10 Return $12.20
Still picked up 20% on turnover I suppose if outlaying the same amount on every race so not a complete disaster tipping wise
Couple of snippets
- I thought Barooga Billy was better than that
- The drive on Sky Tower was atrocious, looking back through his form he always goes best for Erin so hopefully she is back on next start
- Klebnikova Leis is a very good filly
- Barrie Rattray should retire from driving period and leave it to the boys
- Mile races are garbage to bet on
- Saab Quality should never, ever be driven in a sit/sprint capacity again
- Cindys Babe is going to win a race very shortly
Betting in every race update
Current as at August 8, 2010
Races 103
Winners 52
Return $156.68*
Profit $53.68
Strike Rate 50.4%
ROI 52.1%
* Return is based on $1 a win using SuperTab prices
Further examining the data:
Leaders: 38
Winners: 30
Return: $79.48
Strike Rate 78.9%
ROI 107.7%
Non Leaders: 65
Winners: 22
Return: $77.20
Strike Rate 33.8%
ROI 18.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday August 8
Launceston
R1#1 Aapenon 2nd
R2#9 Doves Patch UNP
R3#1 Barooga Billy 3rd
R4#7 Biggernbettermax 3rd
R5#7 Sky Tower 2nd
R6#9 Klebnikova Leis 1st $3.20
R7#8 King Of Bling 1st $5.10
R8#10 Smart Pay 1st $3.90
R9#7 The Aces UNP
R10#3 Rock The Pocket 2nd
Invest $10 Return $12.20
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Sunday Tips
Tips all races
Launceston
R1#1 Aapenon
R2#9 Doves Patch
R3#1 Barooga Billy
R4#7 Biggernbettermax
R5#7 Sky Tower
R6#9 Klebnikova Leis
R7#8 King Of Bling
R8#10 Smart Pay
R9#7 The Aces
R10#3 Rock The Pocket
The 3 in italics and bold are the ones I envisage leading so are best bets but not much value apart from King Of Bling, also think Klebnikova Leis will win with a touch of luck from the draw but want $3.50 minimum. Pretty confident on initial 7 races with last 3 races very difficult to sort out
For full meeting preview and speed maps scroll down about 3-4 posts or click on the Tasmanian Previews link at top right of page
$100 Quaddie
reckon these are the chances but will try and narrow it down a tad
6,7,9,10
1,4,7
1,5,9,10
1,3,5,8
Will take the following all for $25
7
1,4,7
1,5,9,10
1,3,5,8
6,7,9,10
7
1,5,9,10
1,3,5,8
6,7,9,10
1,4,7
9
1,3,5,8
6,7,9,10
1,4,7
1,5,9,10
8
Launceston
R1#1 Aapenon
R2#9 Doves Patch
R3#1 Barooga Billy
R4#7 Biggernbettermax
R5#7 Sky Tower
R6#9 Klebnikova Leis
R7#8 King Of Bling
R8#10 Smart Pay
R9#7 The Aces
R10#3 Rock The Pocket
The 3 in italics and bold are the ones I envisage leading so are best bets but not much value apart from King Of Bling, also think Klebnikova Leis will win with a touch of luck from the draw but want $3.50 minimum. Pretty confident on initial 7 races with last 3 races very difficult to sort out
For full meeting preview and speed maps scroll down about 3-4 posts or click on the Tasmanian Previews link at top right of page
$100 Quaddie
reckon these are the chances but will try and narrow it down a tad
6,7,9,10
1,4,7
1,5,9,10
1,3,5,8
Will take the following all for $25
7
1,4,7
1,5,9,10
1,3,5,8
6,7,9,10
7
1,5,9,10
1,3,5,8
6,7,9,10
1,4,7
9
1,3,5,8
6,7,9,10
1,4,7
1,5,9,10
8
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