Launceston all races
R1#1 Prisonbreak UNP
R2#4 Hamish Sanz 2nd
R3#8 Auntyliz UNP
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper 1st $3.50
R5#5 Keen Operator 1st $5.70
R6#13 Harbhajan 1st $1.90
R7#10 Albert Jones EW 1st $8.0
R8#5 Blacktie Affair 1st $2.50
Quaddie
7,8/1,4,5,8,9/13/2,9,10,11,12 $50 gives 100%
No specials again with so many query runners but as a rough guide here are some suggested bets.
R1 - tri 1/3/2,4,5,6,7 and 1/2,4,5,6,7/3
R2#4 Hamish Sanz EW (place should be okay with 1,2 only)
R3#8 Auntyliz (very small bet)
R4#8 Glenwood Jasper and saver on #7 In Cruise Mode (eg; 80%#8, 20%#7)
R5#5 Keen Operator 1x2 (1 win and 19 placings suggests why)
R6#13 Harbhajan (save on quin with #9 if its < $4 as first up)
R7#10 Albert Jones EW
R8 - first four 5,6,8/5,6,8/5,6,8,9/field
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Launceston Sunday July 25
Race 1
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but th
ey are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax didn't set the world on fire first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple haven't been at that level. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 11
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 17
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO 17
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 15
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 15
12 PROVENANCE 21
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
1 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.04
2 BETTOR DRAW scr
3 KARALTA WIZARD 11
Breeders Crown heat for the 2yo colts and geldings and looks a benefit for the unbeaten Quastor Centurion who is 7 from 7 and demolished the field in the $30,000 Dandy Patch final last time. The only other runner in #3 Karalta Wizard is a fair horse in his own right being placed 10 of 14 starts but they went round in the same race last week and Quastor started $1.80 and Karalta started at $91.40 which probably best sums it up. Don't reckon he will win by far as he isn't that type of horse as tends to bludge a bit in front but he will win and then be off to Melbourne for the semis
Ratings 1/3
Race 2
1 NO TIME TO DREAM 17
2 WHY TAKE TIME scr
3 SARAH ROLAND 17
4 ARTIFICE 3
5 SING AND DANCE 2.2
6 EL JAYS MODEENA 34
7 RUBYS LIFE 15
8 ASHKALINI 5.5
Couple of big queries here makes it hard to assess. #5 Sing And Dance hasn't run a bad race this time in and has an edge in fitness over her main rivals here. #4 Artifice was very good as a 2yo but hasn't raced for 12 months so betting will tell the tale with her as would probably lead and win at her best. Similar story with her stablemate #8 Ashkilini who also resumes from a spell and has an awkward draw to overcome sp prepared to risk. That trio have a definite class edge over the rest with #7 Rubys Life the next best as hasn't had much luck recently but th
ey are all quite even outside of the top 3
Ratings 5/4?/8/7/field
Race 3
1 AAPENNON 11
2 CINDYS BABE 34
3 DREAM OF THE WEST 67
4 BAROOGA BILLY 2.5
5 DENVERS BOY 21
6 ANILADA 34
7 SPOT NINE 2.5
8 SILENT JIM 67
---------- Second Row ----------
9 GO GO CISCO 41
10 TOP PREMIER 17
11 BROWN PAIGE 34
12 ROJEN ALICASTREOS 201
Very thin race this and have settled on the 3yo #7 Spot Nine to make it a hat trick of wins. He has started twice for the Hodges stable for 2 emphatic wins and will get put into the race early here and make it a survival of the fittest. Very hard to assess #4 Barooga Billy who resumed from a long break, was well backed but got it all wrong. He oozes ability but makes too many mistakes to jump in at the short odds but did trial well subsequent to first up run and will probably run favourite but can't afford any mistakes over the mile trip so poor value in my opinion. #1 Aapenon was driven overly aggressively first up and not surprisingly tired but from this draw is some hope with a softer run. #10 Top Premier has run a couple of placings lately in similar fields and is a place hope again, #5 Denvers Boy has trialled okay so may be a place hope
Ratings 7/4/1/10/5,6,11/2,8
Race 4
1 BIGGERNBETTERMAX 2.2
2 HES NO SAINT 51
3 PRISONBREAK 13
4 FOXYCLOUT 17
5 SURPRISE PURCHASE 7
6 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
7 SAAB QUALITY 7
8 WILLIE WINALOT 34
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CARDINAL DREAMER 6
10 KIRIJO 201
11 PEACE CHIEF 34
#1 Biggernbettermax didn't set the world on fire first up (got held up momentarily but they walked home) but still goes on top here. Am worried that will be poor value due to a few factors, good numerical form, barrier 1, Gareth driving and being very well related but still must go on top. There is gatespeed outside him and a bit of a query with that as well so don't take silly odds. #9 Cardinal Dreamer ran his best race in ages trailing the leader last time so could be in the same spot again here. #5 Surprise Purchase is close to a win but has been racing weaker fields but is very honest and #7 Saab Quality who has run some cracking races against some of the best but past couple haven't been at that level. #3 Prisonbreak led and got beaten at long odds on midweek so would have to improve lengths but have to respect on previous form. Of the rest, #4 Foxyclout ran a cheeky race midweek but this is tougher, #6 Cardinal Tucker is honest but draw makes it tough and #11 Peace Chief has some ability but is very wayward
Ratings 1/9/5,7/3/4,6,11
Race 5
1 GUERRERO 11
2 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 21
3 GOOD TO BE HOLME scr
4 PRETTYBOYTOBY 34
5 BALENCIA 4.5
6 LUGOVOI LEIS 3.5
7 CANCELLARA 17
8 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 501
---------- Second Row ----------
9 CURRYNROSES 13
10 HARLEY FELLA 8
11 IN CRUISE MODE 13
12 GLENWOOD JASPER 5.5
Good race this with plenty of value and settled on the 3yo #6 Lugovoi Leis to continue on his winning way but do have a couple of reservations in that he generally goes best when not used out of the gate and will probably have to go forward from this draw as there isn't a ton of speed under him, plus he is taking on some pretty good seasoned horses. On ability though he must go on top. #5 Balencia lacks tactical speed but is as tough as old boots and is sure to be put into the race. #12 Glenwood Jasper finally got some luck and a well deserved win midweek but the barrier draw gods have frowned on him again but with any luck will be right in the thick of the finish. There are number of others who all can win the race with a bit of luck, #1 Geurrero draws to get the right run, #7 Cancellara drew well and was close up but the draw is the worry here but is the topical tip as just finished watching his namesake win the Tour de France time trial, #9 Currynroses is always a chance with the right run, #10 Harley Fella resumes but had decent form prior to a spell and #11 In Cruise Mode hasn't had any luck at all recently. Even #2 An Eye For An Eye isn't the worst. The one thing I am sure of is that if #8 Touchwood Fortune wins then I will give it away!!
Ratings 6/5,12/1,9/7,10,11/2
Race 6
1 UNRIVALLED 13
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 21
3 THE MATO GROSSO 17
4 MOST HAPPY JASPER 5
5 KAMWOOD KENNY 11
6 SANREOS 4
7 STILL ROYAL 15
8 HARLEKEN WIZED 5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE MUSICIAN 11
10 TENT PEG (Em 1)
11 TOPOTHECLOUDS 15
12 PROVENANCE 21
13 MEANDPOP 101
Very hard race but settled on #6 Sanreos who ran a terrific race midweek and at her best would beat these clearly but hasn't done much this season until last run. She makes her own luck and half keen on her actually. Couple of query runners in #8 Harleken Wizard who is first up in the state and has good form around Mount Gambier and the Western Districts of Victoria so must be included despite the draw and #4 Most Happy Jasper has been woeful this season but does have ability and did trial well in preparation for this. Outside of that trio they are an even lot with #9 The Musician drawn to get a soft run on the pegs and may surprise, #11 Topoftheclouds has been perfectly driven at past few and just won't finish off so prepared to risk as a winning chnce. #5 Kamwood Kenny hasn't had much luck since arriving in Tassie so might surprise and both #1 Unrivalled and #3 The Mato Grosso have speed. Can't completely ignore #2 Livin In Heaven who got knocked over when resuming and #12 Provenance goes best in front but isn't hopeless
Ratings 6/4,8/9,11/5/1,3,12
Race 7
1 TOPUP 5
2 PENNYS DRAGON 7
3 ADVANCE DUNDEE NZ 9
4 FORTY TWO GRAND 7
5 PALOONA 34
6 KING ALBERT 9
7 KING OF BLING 5
8 MURILLO BROMAC NZ 7
---------- Second Row ----------
9 FOR MY MUM MAGGIE NZ 17
10 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 51
11 THE APPRENTICE ($5,000) scr
Extremely difficult race to finish the quaddie and have opted for #1 Topup who is drawn to get a perfect run. She goes very well when held up for a late crack at them and draws to get that opportunity here. #7 King Of Bling led and copped a bit of pressure last time but must be respected on previous form, #3 Advance Dundee is actually the horse who took it on so may benefit from a quiter drive itself. #2 Pennys Dragon is up in class but racing very well, #8 Murillo Bromac is down in class but draws badly and both #4 Forty Two Garnd and #6 King Albert ran well without luck midweek. #9 For My Mum Maggie is down on best form but wouldn't totally surprise. Also wouldn't totally discount #5 Paloona who bobs up on occasions
Ratings 1/7/2,4/6,8/3,9
Race 8
1 JEFFERSON NZ 26
2 MAJESTIC EMPEROR 4
3 THE MUSICS OVER NZ 11
4 CASTASPELL 17
5 COSMIC UNDER FIRE NZ 2.7
6 YUSHCHENKO LEIS 3
#5 Cosmic Under Fire has led and been garrotted in front at past 2 starts (in races won by the stablemate of the attacker both times) and has been very brave hanging on to run 3rd both times. Last time for instance they ran 28.9 from the 1200-800m mark and yet no questions were asked by stewards which is another story. Can't see any attackers here so despite the 20m backmark still looms as top pick. #6 Yuschenko Leis has been a revelation since returning to Tassie and never runs a bad race so will go close again. #2 Majestic Emperor also ran a decent race at first run back in the state and if he managed to ping to the front here would take a ton of running down. #3 The Musics Over has super numerical form but this is much harder so will need the right run to figure. #4 Castaspell resumes and is up to this class on best form but resumes from a long spell and #1 Jefferson was disgraceful in a claimer at first run in the state on Wednesday night
Ratings 5/6/2/3/4/1
Race 9
1 PUT MBACK 21
2 THE JET scr
3 BETTORS EXPRESS 21
4 SAFE PROSPECT 1.8
5 SEMOSE TWENTY 3.2
6 JOHNNYACE 6
7 DRIFTING WEST 13
#4 Safe Prospect was super impressive leading and winning during the week and can see no reason why he won't repeat the dose here. #5 Semose Twenty probably should have run 2nd to Quastor Centurion last week and can work in his races so looms as the biggest danger. #6 Johnnyacy is a good sit/sprint type who will take advantage if the favs overdo things and the small field suits so not without claims. #7 Drifting West has also gone okay at past couple but will need luck from the draw and his stablemate #3 Bettors Express isn't totally out of the equation. #1 Put Mback has been fair at the trials but runs into a decent field here so prepared to risk
Ratings 4/5/6/7/3/1
Race 10
1 BENEDICTION 1.1
2 KRISTINS NIADH 7
3 DAWN OFA NIADH 21
4 ZIVAS MAGIC 101
Breeders heat for the fillies sees another standout in #1 Benediction who led and won the Evicus final last time. Looks a certain leader here and simply should be too good. #2 Kristins Niadh ran a cheeky race when 3rd to Benedcition and looks a lock for the quinella spot. Her stablemate #3 Dawn Ofa Niadh has similar ability but doesn't produce it too often but is still well clear of #4 Zivas Magic who is totally outclassed
Ratings 1/2/3/4
Launceston odds and ratings, Wednesday July 21
Just bumping this back to the top
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race but this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS scr
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.5
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at the start in his last mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and the trio of #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1) scr
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading but is some hope if finds the pegs again, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift on recent efforts, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 5
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART scr
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 5
10 DEVIOUS JASPER scr
11 THE MUSICIAN 9
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) scr
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 15
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 9
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there so despite it being a very weak race she did run the time. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under her here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then but not at silly odds as there are question marks around the strength of the formline and a couple of query runners. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good as had a ton of gatespeed and was tough (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore at first Aussie start and won from memory which is unheard of, especially for a 3yo filly taking on older horses) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite not living up to the early promise so must respect at first Tassie start. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race but this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS scr
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.5
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at the start in his last mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and the trio of #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1) scr
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading but is some hope if finds the pegs again, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift on recent efforts, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 5
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART scr
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 5
10 DEVIOUS JASPER scr
11 THE MUSICIAN 9
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) scr
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 15
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 9
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there so despite it being a very weak race she did run the time. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under her here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then but not at silly odds as there are question marks around the strength of the formline and a couple of query runners. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good as had a ton of gatespeed and was tough (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore at first Aussie start and won from memory which is unheard of, especially for a 3yo filly taking on older horses) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite not living up to the early promise so must respect at first Tassie start. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Sunday Tips
All races Hobart
R1#3 Cullens Count
R2#4 Cullens Angel
R3#9 Royal Alchemist
R4#9 Loaded To Run
R5#5 Benediction
R6#10 Sing And Dance
R7#9 Quastor Centurion
R8#6 The Bullionaire
R9#1 Saturday Nights
R10#1 Riverina Chelsea
Have no standout bets and no point tipping one just for the sake of it, forced to pick one would suggest Sing And Dance in race 6 as reckon she will run 2nd at worst and save on quinellas into 4,12 and to a lesser extent 9. Actually the tips in races 1,4,6,8 should all be half decent value so something small on them may be the go
Quaddie (not a big wrap of taking quaddies either with a standout in the last leg as everybody does the same and any value is severely diluted). Going to take these though and if any value will throw a saver on 2,11 in last leg to cover costs. I am only spending $114 on the quaddie today taking these for 100%
1,2,8,9,10
2,3,5,8,9
4,10
9
1,2,8,9,10
3,5
4,9,10,12
9
2,9
3,5
4,10
2,9,11
R1#3 Cullens Count
R2#4 Cullens Angel
R3#9 Royal Alchemist
R4#9 Loaded To Run
R5#5 Benediction
R6#10 Sing And Dance
R7#9 Quastor Centurion
R8#6 The Bullionaire
R9#1 Saturday Nights
R10#1 Riverina Chelsea
Have no standout bets and no point tipping one just for the sake of it, forced to pick one would suggest Sing And Dance in race 6 as reckon she will run 2nd at worst and save on quinellas into 4,12 and to a lesser extent 9. Actually the tips in races 1,4,6,8 should all be half decent value so something small on them may be the go
Quaddie (not a big wrap of taking quaddies either with a standout in the last leg as everybody does the same and any value is severely diluted). Going to take these though and if any value will throw a saver on 2,11 in last leg to cover costs. I am only spending $114 on the quaddie today taking these for 100%
1,2,8,9,10
2,3,5,8,9
4,10
9
1,2,8,9,10
3,5
4,9,10,12
9
2,9
3,5
4,10
2,9,11
Hobart odds and ratings, Sunday July 18
Just bumping this back to the top
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) scr
2 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
3 MARACAS BAY 8
4 JAMES MACKENZIE scr
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 41
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 34
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 3
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 51
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $3 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA scr
Hard race to sort out courtesy of the ex kiwi #2 Spendit who won 3 of 5 starts in NZ and is having first Tassie start here. Can guage a rough formline as ran 3rd to another horse that came to Tassie in Domani Gem and have assessed its price based on what Domani Gem would be but betting moves are the best way to guage. #9 Loaded To Run has had no luck at all recently and looks a good EW bet here from the good trailing draw. #1 An Eye For An Eye has had 2 runs for the Gary Bailey stable now and was very good at first start and pretty average last time, from this draw however really gets his chance so is a must include. #8 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed at past couple when well in commission but will get a soft run here so wouldn't surprise. #4 Ontick looked pretty plain winning last time in my eyes after being gifted the front so prepared to risk and #10 Twograndahand was in that same race that Ontick won and was probably a better run despite not winning so may be the blowout
Ratings 2,9/1/8/4,10
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but doubt she will but she has a stack of ability. I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. That quartet looks clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
#9 Quastor Centurion has taken all before him this season winning all 6 starts. He is also very versatile in that he can win from in front or from behind and really deserves to win this feature race. The main dangers appear to be the Rattray stablemates in #2 Bettor Draw and #11 Beautide who are both pretty good in their own right. It is interesting to note that Gareth cannot drive either of them as he is a part owner of #4 Hangover Joe and is obligated to drive it under the rules of racing so don't read much into the respective choice of drivers. One of that trio should definitely win the race but if playing exotics then include #1 Iden Noshot, #4 Hangover Joe, #5 Apache River and #8 Semose Twenty
Ratings 9/2/11/1,8/4,5
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 6
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4.5
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Pretty open race which will probably be determined by the early speed battle which is actually the case in a lot of mile races. #5 Phantom Jasper has gatespeed but so do a few underneath him but provided he doesn't work too hard early would be the one to beat. I do have a healthy respect for #4 Chanceabet who has a formline of 9990x but does have ability when right and has trialled okay recently so don't dismiss. #6 The Bullionaire is probably the best horse in the race ability wise but has to be driven cold and never keen on those types in mile races, if they overdo it early though he might be the one. Outside of that trio the rest are quite even so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 5/4,6/1,2/8,9
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Ratings 1/3,5/2,6
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 5
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
Race 1
1 PARADIGM GIRL 9
2 LIVIN N HEAVEN NZ 11
3 CULLENS COUNT NZ 5
4 UNRIVALLED 13
5 TROOPER JACK 5.5
6 PEARLS FROM HEAVEN 5
7 LISKENS GIFT 11
---------- Second Row ----------
8 BORNFIRST 13
9 MEANDPOP 51
10 TOTALLY PERFECT 13
Difficult race to start the evening with numerous chances. Have settled on #3 Cullens Count as top pick as draws the best of the major hopes. He has decent gatespeed and if found the pegs would be the one to beat. Also like the engagement of Nat Emery to drive as horses run very well for her when they lead. #6 Pearls From Heaven definitely has the best formlines in the race but has an awkward draw here and will need a very good drive to get the cash. #5 Trooper Jack won very impressively at Devonport recently but past couple have been a shade disappointing but at best would go mighty close. #7 Liskens Gift hasn't had much luck recently but will probably suffer the same fate from this draw, #1 Paradigm Girl won a similar race recently and should get every hope from this draw so cannot be ignored. I also wouldn't completely rule out #2 Livin In Heaven who resumes so watch market moves, #4 Unrivalled started favourite in same class last time and was awful but at best could win, #8 Bornfirst goes best when can lead but draws to get a cheap run and #10 Totally Perfect is one I blackbooked recently after being held up and could definitely surprise. The only other runner, #9 Meandpop has run last at past 3 starts so the one thing I am confident about is that he can't win!
Ratings 3/5,6/1,7,10/2,4,8
Race 2
1 BILLABONG BERTIE 11
2 LITTLE VANCE LOT 34
3 GRACIE HART 21
4 CULLENS ANGEL 1.7
5 NOBEER NOCHEER 3.5
6 RONNIE RAT scr
7 ALLA BREVE 17
Super race which sees the clash of 2 of the most promising pacers in the state. The nod has to go to the mare #4 Cullens Angel as should lead and has been devastating when she has led at recent starts. I do have a good opinion of #5 Nobeer Nocheer though who has been a revelation this season but is going to have to sit outside the mare here and will have to smash the clock to beat her. One of those 2 should win the race but if they overdo it and bring themselves undone then #1 Billabong Bertie (who couldn't get near Cullens Angel 2 starts back from the same draw) will be getting the right run and despite racing out of its class is a clear 3rd pick. Of the rest, #7 Alla Breve has a shocking draw but is dropping in grade so is unfortunate to run into a couple going through the grades. #3 Gracie Hart will keep chasing and whilst not in the same leadue as the favs ability wise is a good exotics chance
Ratings 4/5/1/7/3/2
Race 3
1 LITTLE MISS MADAM (Em 1) scr
2 HYDEHURST BOY 4.5
3 MARACAS BAY 8
4 JAMES MACKENZIE scr
5 DREAMON DONNY 34
6 MY SCARLETT 41
7 SAFE AND SMART 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DEEJAY BROMAC 34
9 ROYAL ALCHEMIST 3
10 LITTLE BLUEJEANS 26
11 BROUGHTON scr
12 GUNBOWER JACK 51
13 MIGHTY MYF 51
Simply impossible to assess this race due to #9 Royal Alchemist resuming from a 3 year break. He had form around some superstars as a young horse but hasn't trialled so betting is the only indication of where he is at - I have marked him at $3 but could be a $1.50 pop or a $21 hope depending on where he is at physically so to state the obvious look for any confidence in the betting with him. Outside of him, #7 Safe And Smart ran an honest race first up in Tassie and should be around the mark somewhere, #2 Hydehurst Boy has always been an enigmatic type who promises to do something but rarely does but did win a trial in fair time to prepare for his return to racing and from the draw is a must include. #4 James Mackenzie had some support at first Tasmanian start and galloped out so was made ODM which means he will start from gate 7 but the backing last time suggests he must be going okay so is one for exotics and #3 Maracas Bay has been competitive in similar races of late. The only other place possibility is #10 Little Bluejeans
Ratings 9?/2,7/4/3/10
Race 4
1 AN EYE FOR AN EYE NZ 6
2 SPENDIT NZ 4.5
3 GUERRERO 13
4 ONTICK 8
5 BAYFIELD HIGH 17
6 OUR SIR LEW 34
7 CANCELLARA 13
---------- Second Row ----------
8 FLIGHT TO MIKINOS 11
9 LOADED TO RUN 5
10 TWOGRANDAHAND 13
11 SOUTHERN PLAYMATE 51
12 TOUCHWOOD BUCKSTA scr
Hard race to sort out courtesy of the ex kiwi #2 Spendit who won 3 of 5 starts in NZ and is having first Tassie start here. Can guage a rough formline as ran 3rd to another horse that came to Tassie in Domani Gem and have assessed its price based on what Domani Gem would be but betting moves are the best way to guage. #9 Loaded To Run has had no luck at all recently and looks a good EW bet here from the good trailing draw. #1 An Eye For An Eye has had 2 runs for the Gary Bailey stable now and was very good at first start and pretty average last time, from this draw however really gets his chance so is a must include. #8 Flight To Mikinos has disappointed at past couple when well in commission but will get a soft run here so wouldn't surprise. #4 Ontick looked pretty plain winning last time in my eyes after being gifted the front so prepared to risk and #10 Twograndahand was in that same race that Ontick won and was probably a better run despite not winning so may be the blowout
Ratings 2,9/1/8/4,10
Race 5
1 CHERYL MARY scr
2 TISU HOLLY 7
3 CODIE KARALTA 3.8
4 MAZURI MALIKA 13
5 BENEDICTION 3.2
6 DAWN OFA NIADH 34
7 KRISTINS NIADH 51
---------- Second Row ----------
8 STONE SKIPPER 7
9 KLEBNIKOVA LEIS 7
10 GUN FILLY 51
11 AZARENKA LEIS 21
The barrier draw has evened this race right up but I have settled on #5 Benediction as the top pick despite being unsure where she will get to early as I think she is the best filly in the race and is versatile. I also have a huge opinion of #3 Codie Karalta and would have had her on top if I thought she would lead but doubt she will but she has a stack of ability. I have #2 Tisu Holly as the leader and whilst she looked good winning and dashing home in 57.8 last time she got the softest lead imaginable and will cop pressure here for sure and I reckon she will crack this week. If she leads, it brings the talented #8 Stone Skipper right into play as draws to trail her and she has exceptional speed. I will also be including #9 Klebnikova Leis who hasn't had much luck at all recently and gets a good draw to trail through early. Those 5 appear better than the rest but #4 Mazuri Malika has place claims and #11 Azarenka Leis bolted in a farcical race at Devonport then made a mistake in the heat of this race and whilst she has ability the draw negates any hope she had
Ratings 5/3/8/2,9/4/11
Race 6
1 ZAZA BROMAC 26
2 ARKABE JEWEL 17
3 SEYMOUR GOLD 51
4 INNASBROOK 3.2
5 TZU TZU PETALS 41
6 JOEY MERCURY NZ 34
7 LILLANS GIRL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 DUNDEES KNIFE 13
9 WILLIE WINALOT 9
10 SING AND DANCE 3.2
11 WILLY PLAY 34
12 SAFINA LEIS 7.5
#4 Innasbrook resumed from a spell and smashed an average lot midweek and looks the likely leader here so must go on top but I wouldn't take silly odds. I have been waiting a while for #10 Sing And Dance to draw to lead and she will be a good thing but still think she will go mighty close here. #12 Safina Leis ran a super race last time despite being beaten 16 metres into 2nd as she was out wide in a 56.9 last half so despite the draw is still an EW chance. #9 Willie Winalot appears the only other winning hope as is honest and whilst he mightn't haave the class of a couple of the others he never runs a bad race. That quartet looks clearly superior to the rest
Ratings 4,10/12/9/2,8,11
Race 7
1 IDEN NOSHOT 17
2 BETTOR DRAW 6.5
3 IZA DREAMA scr
4 HANGOVER JOE (Em 1) 34
5 APACHE RIVER 34
6 POKER STORM 41
7 DIAMONDS ARE MAGIC 101
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SEMOSE TWENTY 26
9 QUASTOR CENTURION 1.6
10 DRIFTING WEST 67
11 BEAUTIDE 8
12 JOHNNYACE 41
13 KARALTA WIZARD 34
#9 Quastor Centurion has taken all before him this season winning all 6 starts. He is also very versatile in that he can win from in front or from behind and really deserves to win this feature race. The main dangers appear to be the Rattray stablemates in #2 Bettor Draw and #11 Beautide who are both pretty good in their own right. It is interesting to note that Gareth cannot drive either of them as he is a part owner of #4 Hangover Joe and is obligated to drive it under the rules of racing so don't read much into the respective choice of drivers. One of that trio should definitely win the race but if playing exotics then include #1 Iden Noshot, #4 Hangover Joe, #5 Apache River and #8 Semose Twenty
Ratings 9/2/11/1,8/4,5
Race 8
1 RED RIVER GEE GEE 11
2 TOUCHWOOD TEEKSTA 6
3 MOUNTAIN MOMMA 17
4 CHANCEABET 6
5 PHANTOM JASPER 3.5
6 THE BULLIONAIRE 4.5
7 ASHINAGA 26
---------- Second Row ----------
8 SWEETCHILLIFILLY 15
9 BAJARDO RIVER 17
Pretty open race which will probably be determined by the early speed battle which is actually the case in a lot of mile races. #5 Phantom Jasper has gatespeed but so do a few underneath him but provided he doesn't work too hard early would be the one to beat. I do have a healthy respect for #4 Chanceabet who has a formline of 9990x but does have ability when right and has trialled okay recently so don't dismiss. #6 The Bullionaire is probably the best horse in the race ability wise but has to be driven cold and never keen on those types in mile races, if they overdo it early though he might be the one. Outside of that trio the rest are quite even so nothing would totally surprise
Ratings 5/4,6/1,2/8,9
Race 9
1 SATURDAY NIGHTS 1.5
2 CARDINAL TUCKER 17
3 IDEN JUSTASMYRK 5
4 CARDINAL DREAMER 101
5 PRISONBREAK 6
6 SAAB QUALITY 17
Breeders Crown heat for the boys and a very interesting race with #1 Saturday Nights being super impressive first up running home in 56.9 to win by a big space so has to be a clear top pick. The only reservation I have is that he sprinted off some farcical early sectionals and will cop some pressure here from the mad pulling #3 Iden Justasmyrk so there is a slight query as to whether he can replicate it after copping pressure and if taking odds on I don't want to have any reservations about a bet. As stated, #3 Iden Justasmyrk can be his own worst enemy at times getting up on the steel but beat a good field last time but runs into a pretty good one here. #5 Prisonbreak has run some terrific races since coming to Tassie and definitely won't shirk the task and if they do go silly up front may be the beneficiary. #6 Saab Quality was disgraceful last time and couldn't possibly beat the fav but does have ability and #2 Cardinal Tucker got a deserved win last time and despite rising in grade is very honest and if trails this fav actually might inject some value into the exotics. #4 Cardinal Dreamer is simply outclassed
Ratings 1/3,5/2,6
Race 10
1 RIVERINA CHELSEA 1.1
2 BE GOOD JENNA 5
Doubt that the TAB will field on this Breeders Crown heat for the 3yo fillies which doesn't really matter as #1 Riverina Chelsea is clearly superior to #2 Be Good Jenna who should be able to stay competitive but will struggle when the handlebars go down on the fav
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Remember you are "Investing not Gambling"
Originally started this thread to show people its not hard to win gambling if you invest selectively instead of actually "gambling". I used to work as a stockbroker and it always amazes me the differing perceptions that people have of a professional punter as opposed to a stockbroker.
Having done both, I can assure everybody that a punter has immensely more factual information readily available to them than a stockbroker does, yet people will gladly give their stockbroker a fair whack of their life savings to invest.
These are just the results of everything I have individually posted for July based on being selective with what I post and most of the time I got a much better price than what is recorded below. Harbhajan for example was $2.20 SuperTab yet $3.50 was available on Betfair so any profits shown here can be magnified.
17/7
Forever After UNP
Unsinkable Boxer 1st $5.0
The Ravenite 1st $3.1
16/7
Ima Rocket Star 2nd
Our Chain Of Command 1st $2.1
Torque In Motion to place 1st $3.0*
14/7
Harbhajan 1st $2.20
11/7
King Of Bling UNP
10/7
Extreme Stature 1st $1.8
9/7
Ti Vogliobene 1st $3.10
7/7
Beautide 1st $2.30
* Please note that the suggested bet Torque In Motion was to place so have recorded it as 1st to designate it as a winner
Having done both, I can assure everybody that a punter has immensely more factual information readily available to them than a stockbroker does, yet people will gladly give their stockbroker a fair whack of their life savings to invest.
These are just the results of everything I have individually posted for July based on being selective with what I post and most of the time I got a much better price than what is recorded below. Harbhajan for example was $2.20 SuperTab yet $3.50 was available on Betfair so any profits shown here can be magnified.
17/7
Forever After UNP
Unsinkable Boxer 1st $5.0
The Ravenite 1st $3.1
16/7
Ima Rocket Star 2nd
Our Chain Of Command 1st $2.1
Torque In Motion to place 1st $3.0*
14/7
Harbhajan 1st $2.20
11/7
King Of Bling UNP
10/7
Extreme Stature 1st $1.8
9/7
Ti Vogliobene 1st $3.10
7/7
Beautide 1st $2.30
* Please note that the suggested bet Torque In Motion was to place so have recorded it as 1st to designate it as a winner
Launceston Wednesday
This is a very hard meeting, I have lost count of the amount of interstate horses coming to race in Tasmania of late but must be more than 20 over the past month which makes it terribly hard to assess. Looks to be plenty of value though to offset that.
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race and this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS 13
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.8
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on replacing the trainer and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at previous mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1)
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 6
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4.5
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART 7
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 8
10 DEVIOUS JASPER 8
11 THE MUSICIAN 11
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) 15
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 21
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 11
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under him here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore and won from memory which is unheard of) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite n ot living up to the early promise so must respect. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
Race 1
1 PRISONBREAK 1.20
2 JOEY MERCURY NZ 26
3 LEGERWOOD CREEK 11
4 ARK RAID 15
5 MODERN LOBELL 26
6 FOXYCLOUT 34
7 HOT ROCK EXPRESS 17
8 JUSTALITTLESPECIAL 101
---------- Second Row ----------
9 KIRIJO 67
#1 Prisonbreak simply looks too good for these, did run last on Sunday night in a hot race and this is miles easier. He has gatespeed and has recently run placings behind the likes of Thirsty Mach and Spot Nine which is easily good enough form here. For the placings it is very even, #3 Legerwood Creek ran 4th in the same race as the fav 2 starts back and was a pretty good run before disappointing last time but still looms as the main danger. #4 Ark Raid is a first starter for the state's leading trainer in Phillip Ford so respect any confident betting moves but trials have only been fair. #7 Hot Rock Express draws awkwardly and resumes but does have some ability so is a real place prospect with any luck. Of the rest, #2 Joey Mercury may sneak a place if can drop onto the back of the fav early, #5 Modern Lobell has run some respectable races of late but is place chance only and #6 Foxyclout had every conceivable last time and tired. Both #8 and #9 resume from spells and form prior to a break was average and neither has been seen at the trials
Ratings 1/3/4?,7/5/2,6
Race 2
1 SUNRISE LADY 21
2 GAME LOBELL 21
3 HELLO JASON DENNIS 13
4 HAMISH SANZ 3.5
5 WOODY BEOURS 4.5
6 SAFE PROSPECT 3.8
7 DIEBERDEVIL 3.8
Found this a very difficult race to assess with 4 horses all with definite claims. #4 Hamish Sanz draws the best and has also been very competitive in similar races of late. I also like the driving change with Nat Emery hopping on replacing the trainer and she had a great record on its older half brother Mitchell Sanz when the same thing occurred. #7 Dieberdevil won impressively first up but led in a stand start so might have been a tad flattering and may be poor value as was restrained at previous mobile start but never runs a bad race. #6 Safe Prospect has very similar form to Hamish Sanz (maybe even a tad better) but from the draw this time it sways in the favour of Hamish Sanz but was quite impressive last time. The query is #5 Woody Beours who resumes from a short let up and has been unplaced in all 3 starts to date which is very misleading as has run 4ths to Quastor Centurion and Beautide who are very good. One of that quartet should definitely win with #3 Hello Jason Dennis being next best after an encouraging 4th at first start behind Diebercharged although well beaten. The 2 stablemates in #1 Sunrise Lady and #2 Game Lobell have both only trialled fairly but monitor any market moves
Ratings 4/5,6,7
Race 3
1 DIEBERCHARGED 7
2 HERNANDES 21
3 WHY TAKE TIME 6
4 LILLANS GIRL 21
5 SEYMOUR GOLD 34
6 NO TIME TO DREAM 6
7 HES NO SAINT 34
8 AUNTYLIZ 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE ACES 6
10 SARAH ROLAND 8
Honestly didn't know where to start here as they all got beaten more than 20 metres at their previous start. #8 Auntyliz has been in the market at all 3 starts and has trialled well between runs so despite the horror gate is a chance to feature. #1 Diebercharged does have ability which belies his formlines so from the draw might surprise, #9 The Aces ran a shocker last time but his 2 previous runs were good enough to feature here and #3 Why Take Time, #6 No Time To Dream and #10 Sarah Roland will find this easier than past few. #2 Hernandes resumes with average form and was just fair at the trials, both #4 Lillans Girl and #5 Seymour Gold showed good gate speed Sunday night but stopped just as quickly and #7 Hes No Saint is actually the only winner in the race but has run 2nd last and last since resuming from a spell
Ratings 8/1,3,6,9,10
Race 4
1 MOST HAPPY JASPER (Em 1)
2 TENT PEG 67
3 FANTASY ROCKS 11
4 SANREOS 13
5 OUR SIR THOMAS 9
6 GOOD TO BE HOLME 67
7 IN CRUISE MODE 5.5
8 GLENWOOD JASPER 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 BUDDAHS BEST MATE 13
10 BAD BOY VINNY 11
11 BOOZY ROUGE 15
12 TEEJAY FELLA 7
13 PROVENANCE 26
A lot of these went round in the same race last time and there is no doubt that #8 Glenwood Jasper should have won clearly, he draws awkwardly here but can do work so should push forward from the wide gate. #7 In Cruise Mode was retired from that same race with a buckled wheel and is going extremely well and also should press forward over the mile trip. Given even luck, one of that duo should win but the draw makes it hard as if somebody decides to post them it opens the race right up. #12 Teejays Fella resumes and had good form last time in and stable is on fire currently and whilst it is near impossible to win a sprint race from gate 12 if they do go mad will be a live chance. There are plenty of place prospects outside of them with #3 Fantasy Rocks drawing well but was disappointing last week after leading, #4 Sanreos is very one paced and had good form 12 months back but would need to lift, #5 Our Sir Thomas has good speed and given the right run could feature, #9 Buddahs Best Mate draws to get a cheap run but would need it, #10 Bad Boy Vinny is an honest sit/sprinter who given the right run in transit is a hope, #11 Boozy Rouge is struggling of late but at best could figure and even #13 Provenance is some hope first up from the horror gate. Type of race you would love to bet in after 100 metres but aren't they all
Ratings 8/7/12/3,5,9,10/4,11
Race 5
1 TOPOTHECLOUDS 8
2 PADDY MY BOY 26
3 BIG TOWN BABE (Em 1) scr
4 GLORY IS ILLUSIVE 6
5 KEEN OPERATOR 4.5
6 THE MATO GROSSO 26
7 MONICAS NOTCH 26
8 PRETTYBOYTOBY 4.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 JACK LESLIE 8
10 KAMWOOD KENNY 13
11 BORNFIRST 26
12 COMMANDER DATA scr
13 CRASH CART 7
#5 Keen Operator has 1 win from 59 starts (19 placings) which sums it up but is going better than ever at present, has run placings at 4 of past 5 and ran a very quick lead time for this grade in the other. If you didn't look at his winning percentage you simply have to back him so have him on top. Can see him pressing forward to race in the death and make his own luck which is why I have him in front of #8 Prettyboytoby who has to be driven cold and is perennially unlucky but certainly has the ability. The well bred #4 Glory Is Illusive led and won last time and will probably start favourite based on that but wasn't overly impressive in my eyes so have him as 3rd pick. #13 Crash Cart certainly has ability but manners can let him down at times but this isn't strong and if on best behaviour will be right in the mix. #1 Topoftheclouds led last time, ran a 71 first half and 31 down the back and still struggled up the straight, may go better with a sit but simply hasn't been finding the line of late but the ability is there. #9 Jack Leslie promises to win a race and if gets any luck from the draw might crack it here
Ratings 5/4,8/13/1/9
Race 6
1 TOUCHWOOD FORTUNE 67
2 GO GO CISCO 41
3 SILENT JIM 21
4 JUSTABRITTMORE 26
5 MASTERAMA 41
6 TOP PREMIER (Em 1) 21
7 BROWN PAIGE 26
8 TEARSOFACLOWN scr
---------- Second Row ----------
9 THE DETONATOR 8
10 DEVIOUS JASPER 8
11 THE MUSICIAN 11
12 BARKERS RUN 41
13 HARBHAJAN 1.8
#13 Harbhajan was very impressive at first Tassie start rounding the field up and racing away and on exposed form should really do it again despite the draw. There are a couple of query runners though in #9 The Detonator who resumes but did run some okay races prior to a spell and #10 Devious Jasper who is first up from NSW with average form but the stable has had a bit of success with new additions of late. Watch any market moves for either of them as if no money the fav should win easily with the only danger being the perennially unlucky #11 The Musician who simply has to be driven cold but one day the stars will align and will get a win. Of the rest, place hopes also go to #3 Silent Jim, #4 Justabrittmore, #6 Top Premier and #7 Brown Paige
Ratings 13/9,10,11/3,4,6,7
Race 7
1 THE CHEROKEE CHIEF NZ ($4,000) 21
2 THE APPRENTICE ($4,000) 4.5
3 WAYNE ROONEY NZ ($4,000) 34
4 BYGONE ERA ($2,000) 15
5 MY CENTURION NZ ($4,000) 21
6 KING ALBERT ($5,000) 11
7 COSTA SMERALDA ($5,000) 26
8 FORTY TWO GRAND ($7,000) 13
---------- Second Row ----------
9 WATERLOO BAY ($8,000) 7
10 ALBERT JONES ($8,000) 5
11 JEFFERSON NZ ($8,000) 5
12 BONNY WEE LADDIE ($8,000) 6
The claimers revert to mobile conditions here and a hard way to end the quaddie. #2 The Apprentice is new to the state from Queensland but did show good gatespeed when racing up there so looks a good chance of finding the front here and based on previous form would go close. #11 Jefferson is also new to the state from SA and has always been well in the market recently in good fields. He is a sit/sprint type and I can see this being run quite quickly which would bring him right into the mix. #10 Albert Jones has a very good record in mobile claimers so must be respected, #9 Waterloo Bay has won 5 of past 6 starts at this level but against weaker fields from the stand so will find it harder from this draw and back to mobile conditions. #12 Bonnie Wee Laddie blew away a field where they went mad early last time and walked home but if they did it again he has the ability despite the draw. Others with a hope are #6 King Albert and #8 Forty Two Grand who strangely has run six 4ths in a row and will probably be around that position again from this draw. #4 Bygone Era isn't completely hopeless either
Ratings 2,11/10/9/12/6.8/4
Race 8
1 DAVPASS 51
2 WE WONT GO THERE 13
3 MOIRA KITE 21
4 DREAM OF THE WEST 21
5 BLACKTIE AFFAIR 2.8
6 ALMA GRANT 4.5
7 REAL RESERVE 51
8 LOLA BROMAC NZ 3.5
---------- Second Row ----------
9 LOVE YOU CYPRUS 13
#5 Blacktie Affair was super impressive at Devonport coming from off the speed in a 28.7 last quarter which is flying around there. Also had decent gatespeed when racing in Victoria and there isn't a ton of speed under him here so is a good chance to get to the pegs and would definitely be the one to beat then. I can vividly remember #8 Lola Bromac when she first came to Australia and looked like being very good (think she ran a 41.5 lead time at Kilmore and won from memory which is unheard of) but disappointed at next couple of campaigns but form wasn't too bad despite n ot living up to the early promise so must respect. #6 Alma Grant is another with heaps of potential and actually started favourite against Maggie Kennedy last start so at first run back from a spell for an in form stable you simply have to respect her. One of that trio should win with place hopes going to another ex Victorian #9 Love You Cyprus who usually races best when drawn to lead but still not without a hope and place hopes also to #2 We Wont Go There, #3 Moira Kite and #4 Dreams Of The West
Ratings 5/6,8/9/2,3,4
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